Core Insights - Zhonggu Logistics (603565.SH) reported a total revenue of 5.338 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, ranking 14th among disclosed peers [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.072 billion yuan, ranking 8th among peers, representing an increase of 315 million yuan or 41.59% year-on-year [1] - The net cash inflow from operating activities was 1.280 billion yuan, ranking 13th among peers, with a year-on-year increase of 301 million yuan or 30.80% [1] Financial Metrics - The latest debt-to-asset ratio is 56.98%, a decrease of 1.85 percentage points from the same period last year [3] - The latest gross profit margin is 23.36%, an increase of 10.72 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The latest return on equity (ROE) is 10.25%, ranking 1st among peers, with an increase of 2.66 percentage points from the previous year [3] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is 0.51 yuan, ranking 4th among peers, with an increase of 0.15 yuan or 41.67% year-on-year [3] - The total asset turnover ratio is 0.22 times, ranking 10th among peers [3] - The inventory turnover ratio is 73.01 times, ranking 3rd among peers, with an increase of 10.71 times year-on-year, marking two consecutive years of growth and a year-on-year increase of 17.19% [3] Shareholder Structure - The number of shareholders is 27,400, with the top ten shareholders holding 1.544 billion shares, accounting for 73.51% of the total share capital [3] - The largest shareholder is Zhonggu Shipping Group Co., Ltd., holding 57.46% [3] - Other notable shareholders include Ningbo Guyang Investment Management Partnership (7.01%) and China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. - SSE Dividend ETF (2.17%) [3]

Core Viewpoint - Phoenix Shipping (000520.SZ) reported a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating improved financial performance compared to the previous year [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company's total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 344 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.23 million yuan, an increase of 16.14 million yuan compared to the same period last year [1]. - Operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 71.38 thousand yuan, but this was an improvement of 612.14 thousand yuan year-on-year, marking two consecutive years of increase [1]. Profitability Metrics - The latest gross profit margin was 4.77%, which is an increase of 2.38 percentage points from the previous quarter and an increase of 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) was 0.27%, reflecting an increase of 3.08 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3]. Earnings and Efficiency - The diluted earnings per share were 0.00 yuan, an increase of 0.02 yuan from the same period last year [4]. - The total asset turnover ratio was 0.51 times, ranking second among disclosed peers, while the inventory turnover ratio was 26.13 times, ranking eleventh [4]. Shareholder Structure - The number of shareholders was approximately 99,300, with the top ten shareholders holding 380 million shares, accounting for 37.52% of the total share capital [4]. - The largest shareholder, Changzhi Nanye Industrial Group Co., Ltd., held 17.11% of the shares, followed by Shanxi Huanghe Equity Investment Management Co., Ltd. with 9.38% [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The shipping market is currently experiencing a downturn. The overall market sentiment is bearish, with the main reasons being the market's increased expectation of interest rate cuts after Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and Trump's threat to impose tariffs on imported furniture [6]. - The demand in the shipping market remains weak. The increase in overtime ships in late August has put significant pressure on spot freight rates. The market has shifted to a buyer - dominated situation, and there are no clear plans from shipping companies to raise prices [7]. - The downward adjustment of OCEAN's freight rates in September is accelerating, which may put pressure on MSK to cut prices to attract cargo. In the short term, freight rates may fall below 1300. The price of the 12 - contract is likely to show a weak and volatile trend [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Freight Index - **SCFI Composite Index**: The current value is 1445, up 2.10% from the previous value of 1415 [5]. - **CCFI Index**: The current value is 1156, down 1.58% from the previous value of 1175 [5]. - **Route - Specific Indexes**: SCFI - US West has a current value of 1923, up 16.97%; SCFIS - US West is 1041, down 5.88%; SCFI - US East is 2866, up 9.68%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1481, down 11.21%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1990, down 8.72%; SCFI - Mediterranean is 2145, down 3.60% [5]. 3.2 Contracts - **Contract Prices**: For contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604, the current values are 1374.0, 1577.2, 1285.0, 1571.0, 1400.0, and 1216.0 respectively, with corresponding declines of - 2.26%, - 0.68%, - 2.36%, - 3.05%, - 2.83%, and - 2.63% [5]. - **Contract Positions**: The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 872, 226, 54248, 16197, 4668, and 6667 respectively, with changes of (1), 3, 523, 1880, 110, and 425 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The current values of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 spreads are - 286.0, 171.0, and 355.0 respectively, with changes of 18.5, (8.7), and (16.7) [5]. 3.3 Market News - Geopolitical news: Yemen's Houthi rebels vow to avenge the deaths of several key members in Israeli air strikes and will continue to support the Palestinian people [5]. - Trade policy news: The US Trade Representative's Office announced the extension of the 15% ceiling tariff on China under the "301 Clause". The US government plans to expand national security tariffs in the coming months, covering industries such as steel, aluminum, semiconductors, heavy trucks, and commercial aircraft [5]. - Shipping market news: The container ship order book has reached 10 million TEU, and alternative - fuel - powered ships will dominate future shipping capacity. Some segments, especially medium - sized ships, are aging rapidly [5]. 3.4 Strategies The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [9].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The oil shipping sector is currently undervalued, with companies showing resilience and dividend support, suggesting a focus on left-side opportunities and seasonal demand improvements [1] - Recent shipping price updates indicate a rebound in container shipping rates for the US routes, while European routes have declined. The SCFI index shows a week-on-week change of +17.0% for US routes and -11.2% for European routes [2] - The dry bulk shipping market has seen a strong recent increase in freight rates, with the BDI index up by 7.0% week-on-week, indicating potential demand improvements [2] Group 2: Company Focus - Companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy (中远海能), China Merchants Energy Shipping (招商轮船), and China Merchants Jinling (招商南油) are highlighted as key players to watch due to their potential for growth and dividend yields [1] - High-dividend private enterprises like Seaspan (海丰国际) and Zhonggu Logistics (中谷物流) are recommended for their short-term and long-term value propositions, particularly during the peak season in the second half of the year [1] - The small container ship supply in the Asian region is expected to remain tight, with only a 1-2% annual increase in supply over the next three years, while the proportion of older ships (over 25 years) is at 11.2% [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The average capacity of vessels in the Asian region is concentrated in larger global operators, with the top ten companies holding about 70% of the capacity share, indicating a high chartering ratio [3] - The deployment of vessels in Asia is primarily focused on larger ships (3,000 TEU and above), which creates a competitive landscape with companies like Seaspan focusing on smaller vessels for regional routes [3]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The oil shipping sector is currently undervalued, with companies showing elasticity and dividend support, suggesting a focus on left-side opportunities and seasonal demand improvements [1] - Recent shipping price updates indicate a rebound in container shipping prices for the US routes, while European routes have declined; SCFI prices changed by +17.0% for US, -11.2% for Europe, and +5.3% for Southeast Asia week-on-week [1] - The dry bulk index (BDI) has shown a week-on-week increase of +7.0%, with specific indices like BCI and BSI rising by +8.2% and +4.3% respectively [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - There is a persistent tight supply of small container ships in the Asian region, with only a 1-2% annual increase in supply expected over the next three years, while the proportion of ships over 25 years old has reached 11.2% [2] - The majority of new small container ships are being ordered for routes bypassing the Red Sea, with limited new supply expected in the Asian region, which only saw a 2.2% increase in small ship capacity [2] - The top ten shipping companies in the Asian region hold approximately 70% of the capacity share, with a high reliance on chartered vessels, indicating a competitive landscape focused on larger vessels [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is challenging, so it's recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [4]. - The overall supply - demand situation has no significant change. The freight rates on European routes continue to decline, the market is not optimistic about the subsequent freight rate trends, and the market remains under pressure [4]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Content Freight Rate Index - On August 25, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51); the preliminary value of the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than 50.9 in July, improving for three consecutive months and reaching the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected value of 50.7. The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in August was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined [2]. - The value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the US S&P Global service PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7); the preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [3]. Market Situation - The SCFI maintains a downward trend, the market is under pressure and volatile, and it's not recommended to increase positions. Stop - loss should be set [1]. - As of August 29, the main contract 2510 closed at 1261.0, down 2.15%, with a trading volume of 25,200 lots and an open interest of 53,200 lots, a decrease of 988 lots from the previous day [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are strong. Risk - takers are recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - loss [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and has large fluctuations. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines or make light - position attempts [5]. - Long - term strategy: It's recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Other Information - The US - China tariff extension continues, and there is no substantial progress in the negotiation. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [4]. - On August 29, the Israeli Defense Forces continued operations in the Middle East, including a "major strike" on strategic targets of the Yemeni Houthi rebels [6]. - On August 26, the US Department of Commerce made an anti - dumping preliminary ruling on polypropylene corrugated boxes imported from China, with a preliminary ruling unified duty rate of 83.64% (the margin after offsetting subsidies was adjusted to 73.10%). The anti - dumping final ruling is expected to be combined with the counter - subsidy final ruling on November 12, 2025 [6]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Haitong Development, is expanding its operational capacity by acquiring two multi-purpose cargo ships through its wholly-owned subsidiaries, with a total contract value of $32 million [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Haitong Development's wholly-owned subsidiary, Dannaning Shipping, has signed a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) to purchase a multi-purpose cargo ship from Helene Braren [1] - Another subsidiary, Daqing Shipping, has also signed an MOA to acquire a multi-purpose cargo ship from Simon Braren [1] - The total contract amount for both transactions is $32 million [1]

2025 年 9 月 1 日 中国宏观周报（2025 年 8 月第 4 周） 外需韧性显现 证券分析师 平安观点： 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 从高频数据观察，本周中国工业生产分化，新房成交在低基数下回稳，电 影票房收入仍强。8 月以来外需呈现韧性，中国港口集装箱吞吐量、韩国 前 20 日出口、欧美制造业 PMI均较上月恢复，部分区域运价率先企稳。 1. 工业：生产存在分化。1）原材料方面，本周日均铁水产量、浮法玻璃开工 率、钢铁建材产量和表观需求环比提升；水泥熟料产能利用率、石油沥青 及部分化工品开工率边际调整。2）中下游方面，本周纺织聚酯开工率、织 造业开工率季节性回升；汽车全钢胎开工率、半钢胎开工率边际回落。 2. 地产：新房成交同比企稳。1）销售方面，本周（截至 8 月 29 日）30 大 中城市新房销售面积同比增长 0.3%，增速较上周提升；8 月以来 30 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the first half of September (week 36 - 37). The average quote for week 36 is $2,270 (equivalent to 1,600 points), and for week 37 is $2,125 (equivalent to 1,450 points). Different shipping alliances have different quotes [1]. - In terms of fundamentals, the overall shipping capacity in September has been adjusted down. The OA Alliance's FAL3 will have an additional suspension in week 37. PA & MSC's FE3 will have additional suspensions in weeks 39 and 41 respectively, and FE4 will have an additional suspension in week 41. The average weekly shipping capacities in September and October are 296,000 and 309,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN ships as suspended, the capacities are 296,000 and 281,000 TEU. The situation in September is relatively loose, and the driving force will continue to be weak for at least the next two weeks. The decline in October depends on the shipping companies' suspension actions. However, in terms of valuation, the 10 - contract is close to the annual low (1,250 - 1,300), with limited downside. The 12 - contract has a short - term downward driving force, but it is in the peak season and the long - term contract negotiation season, so opportunities for buying on dips can be considered [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contract Price and Related Data - EC2510 closed at 1,261.0 with a decline of 1.87%, trading volume of 25,228, and open interest of 53,260 with a decrease of 988. EC2512 closed at 1,562.7 with a decline of 0.53%, trading volume of 7,111, and open interest of 17,323 with an increase of 1,126. EC2602 closed at 1,408.1 with an increase of 0.58%, trading volume of 570, and open interest of 4,689 with an increase of 21. EC2604 closed at 1,204.4 with a decline of 0.95%, trading volume of 1,350, and open interest of 7,136 with an increase of 469. EC2606 closed at 1,376.1 with an increase of 0.15%, trading volume of 89, and open interest of 867 with a decrease of 5 [1]. - The month - spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 301.7 compared to - 286.0 the previous day and - 304.5 two days ago, a change of - 15.7. The month - spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 154.6 compared to 171.0 the previous day and 179.7 two days ago, a change of - 16.4 [1]. Spot Freight Index - The SCFI (European route) was updated weekly on Mondays and Fridays. As of August 25 and 29, 2025, it was 1,990.2 and 1,481 respectively, with a decline of 8.71% and 11.21% compared to the previous period, and a decline of 2.47% and 8.35% compared to the period before that [1]. - The CCFI was updated weekly. As of August 29, 2025, it was 1,685.8, a decline of 4.09% compared to the previous period and a decline of 1.83% compared to the period before that [1]. - The NCFI was updated weekly. As of August 29, 2025, it was 929.56, a decline of 14.23% compared to the previous period and a decline of 8.83% compared to the period before that [1]. Recent European Route Quote Situation - For week 36, the latest quotes from shipping companies range from $2,120 - 2,420, with an average of $2,250 (1,550 points). The PA Alliance's quotes are $2,200 - 2,300, MSK's initial quote was $2,100 (later increased to $2,200), and the OA Alliance's quotes are $2,300 - 2,400 [2]. - For week 37, the average quote is $2,125 (equivalent to 1,450 points). MSK's quote was initially $1,900 (later increased to $1,940), the PA Alliance's quotes are $2,100 - 2,200, and the OA Alliance's quotes are $2,100 - 2,300 [1][2]. Related News - On August 31, Israel is set to expand military operations, which may cut off humanitarian aid to Gaza City. Israel will block the airdrop of aid supplies and reduce the number of aid trucks entering Gaza City in the coming days and is preparing to relocate the local population to southern Gaza [3]. - On August 31, multiple key figures were killed in an Israeli air - strike, and the Yemeni Houthi rebels vowed revenge. Hamas confirmed the death of its military leader Muhammad Sinwar [3]. - On August 30, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by President Trump were illegal. These measures can remain in effect until October 14 to allow the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court. The ruling does not affect tariffs imposed under other regulations, such as steel and aluminum tariffs [3].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Tianhong Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159281) on September 2, 2025, aims to attract investors seeking high dividend yields as the A-share market approaches the 3900-point mark [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - Insurance capital has significantly increased its investment in high-dividend assets, with a total growth of 640 billion yuan in equity assets during the first half of the year [1]. - Major insurance companies, including China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and China Ping An, have indicated plans to enhance their allocation towards quality high-dividend assets in their semi-annual reports [1]. Group 2: ETF Characteristics - The Tianhong ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central SOE Dividend Index, focusing on high-dividend stocks from central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) [1]. - The ETF selects companies that have consistently paid dividends for three consecutive years, ensuring a dividend payout ratio greater than 0 and less than 1 over the past year, thus avoiding "one-off dividends" [1]. - The index is weighted by dividend yield rather than market capitalization, preventing the pitfalls of high buying and low selling [1]. Group 3: Top Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF include China COSCO Shipping, Orient Overseas International, China National Offshore Oil, and China Shenhua Energy, among others [1]. - The profitability of central SOEs supports the high dividend yields, allowing investors to benefit from both capital appreciation and stable dividend income under new market regulations [1]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - As of July 4, 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Central SOE Dividend Index had a dividend yield of 7.73% and a year-to-date increase of 17.17%, significantly outperforming the CSI Central SOE Dividend Index, which had a dividend yield of 4.89% and a year-to-date increase of 5.07% [2]. - Over the past five years, the index has achieved an annualized total return of 14.27% with an annualized volatility of 22.02%, indicating a balance of returns and risk management [2].