Economic Trends - The cement dispatch rate improved significantly, reaching 30.6% as of March 20, up 11 percentage points from March 13, but down 7.6 percentage points year-on-year[2] - Oil prices continue to rise, with Brent crude closing at $112.2 per barrel, an increase of 8.8%[2] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of passenger cars declined by 21.3% year-on-year in the first half of March, following a 25.4% drop in February and a 13.9% decrease in January[2] - The construction resumption rate for major construction companies was 62% as of March 18, up 19.5 percentage points from the previous week but down 2.62 percentage points year-on-year[2] Trade and Exports - Port container throughput growth rate continued to decline, with a year-on-year increase of only 2.5% as of March 15, down from 16.5% last year[2] - The number of cargo ships from China to the U.S. saw a year-on-year decrease of 26.4% as of March 20, compared to a 3.1% increase in January-February[27] Commodity Prices - Gold prices fell to $4,576.3 per ounce, down 8.9%, while copper prices dropped to $12,128 per ton, down 5.6%[3] - The domestic coal price showed a slight rebound, with Shanxi power coal priced at 735 yuan per ton, up 0.8%[36] Financial Indicators - The yield curve steepened, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields reported at 1.2568%, 1.5625%, and 1.8299%, respectively[59] - The stock-bond Sharpe ratio difference remains high at 2.16, indicating better relative value for stocks compared to bonds[10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the escalating situation in the Middle East on the oil shipping market, addressing current shipping conditions, alternative routes, and potential long-term effects on supply and demand. Group 1: Current Shipping Conditions - As of February 28, the shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased by approximately 95% compared to pre-conflict levels, with no significant recovery trend observed in daily data [1]. Group 2: Alternative Routes - The Saudi Arabia East-West pipeline connecting the Abqaiq oil field to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea has the theoretical loading capacity of 5 million barrels per day, although it has not reached this level historically. As of March 12, the loading volume had increased to 2.9 million barrels per day from 1.9 million barrels per day, indicating potential for further increases [1]. - Currently, 27 VLCCs are heading to Yanbu port, and due to risks from Houthi forces in the Red Sea, freight rates on this route are expected to remain high, with VLCC rates reported at $174,000 per day on March 13 [1]. Group 3: Impact of Continued Middle East Cargo Loss - If the current situation persists for 15-20 days, vessels originally bound for the Middle East may reroute to West Africa and the Gulf of Mexico, putting upward pressure on freight rates for these routes. The IEA's release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves may help mitigate the impact of reduced Middle Eastern cargo, but the release rate is slow, and its effectiveness remains to be seen [2]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - In the long term, there may be significant depletion of global commercial and strategic inventories, leading countries to build and replenish stocks for energy security. This could create a sustained increase in transportation demand over the years, contrasting with the low oil shipping market seen during the 2020-2021 period following the oil price war [2]. Group 5: Impact on Container Shipping - The article compares the current situation with the Red Sea crisis of 2024, noting that the Red Sea was a key route for Far East-Europe and some Far East-East Coast US shipping. The rerouting has increased capacity on European routes by 39%, raising its global share to 24% [1]. - The Strait of Hormuz primarily serves the needs of Gulf countries, accounting for only 3% of global trade demand. However, the complexity of shipping networks may lead to chain reactions affecting efficiency and capacity [1]. - Potential congestion at international transshipment ports, such as Singapore and Port Klang, may arise as cargo originally destined for the Middle East is redirected [1]. - The land transportation system may also be affected by fuel supply issues if Middle Eastern oil trade continues to be disrupted, potentially leading to increased prices for gasoline and diesel in import-dependent countries [1].

Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on investment opportunities in the AI sector, particularly following the Nvidia GTC conference, which is expected to initiate a new AI market cycle [5] - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in the disposable glove industry due to rising raw material costs, suggesting a recovery in profits for leading companies in this sector [10][12] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies a selection of stocks for March, including Poly Real Estate Group (0119.HK), CITIC Hainan Airlines (000099.SZ), and Mindray Medical (300760.SZ), among others [1] - It suggests monitoring the disposable glove industry, particularly companies like YK Medical and Blue Sail Medical, as they may benefit from the current pricing cycle [12][13] Industry Performance - The report notes that the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has underperformed, with the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index dropping 3.21% from March 16 to March 20, 2026, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 0.97 percentage points [10][11] - In the electric equipment and new energy sector, global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to grow rapidly in 2026, driving demand for batteries and materials [15] Market Trends - The report indicates a general decline in the A-share market, with various sectors experiencing downturns, particularly in the materials and energy sectors [19][21] - It highlights the performance of the electric equipment and new energy sectors, noting a 3.06% decline in the week, with specific indices like the lithium battery index showing a 2.99% increase [16] Raw Material Insights - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on the prices of key raw materials for disposable gloves, such as butadiene and acrylonitrile, which are expected to rise, leading to a price increase in the gloves themselves [12][10] - It also mentions that the cost structure of disposable gloves is heavily influenced by raw material prices, which account for approximately 39% of total costs [12]

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company is focused on the shipping industry, specifically in the dry bulk sector, with a strategic plan called the "Hundred Ship Plan" aiming to expand its fleet significantly by 2028-2029, currently owning over 60 vessels [1][4]. Financial Performance - For 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.443 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.43%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 465 million yuan, a decline of 15.3% [3]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.434 billion yuan, up 33.78%, and a net profit of 212 million yuan, up 53.33% [3]. - The company purchased 18 vessels in 2025, with a total of 61 bulk carriers and 4 heavy-lift vessels by year-end [3]. Market Dynamics - The company’s TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) for ultra-flexible and Panamax vessels exceeded market averages by 14% and 13%, respectively, indicating strong operational performance [2][3]. - The market is expected to remain optimistic in 2026, with projected daily charter rates for Capesize, Panamax, and ultra-flexible vessels at approximately $27,000, $18,000, and $15,000, respectively [2][7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing the "Hundred Ship Plan," which involves acquiring about 10 vessels annually based on market conditions [4]. - Heavy-lift vessels are seen as a "second growth curve," with plans to expand this segment to 11 vessels, aiming for TCE levels exceeding $20,000 per day by 2026 [2][8]. Geopolitical Impact - The recent US-Iran conflict has led to increased oil prices, affecting operational costs, but the company’s chartering model mitigates direct impacts as fuel costs are primarily borne by charterers [5][6]. - The geopolitical situation has heightened demand for strategic commodities, supporting the dry bulk market and maintaining optimistic price expectations for the coming years [10]. Risk Management - The company has a healthy debt ratio of approximately 30%, with plans to finance new acquisitions through a mix of self-funding and debt financing, including potential equity financing when conditions are favorable [13]. - The sensitivity analysis indicates that a 100-point change in the BDI index corresponds to a net profit change of approximately 140 million yuan annually [13]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates strong demand for iron ore, coal, and agricultural products, particularly with the expected production increase in South America [7][10]. - The market sentiment remains resilient despite geopolitical tensions, with expectations of a rebound in shipping rates as conditions stabilize [10][11]. Conclusion - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on market opportunities while managing risks associated with geopolitical events and fluctuating fuel prices. The strategic focus on fleet expansion and diversification into heavy-lift vessels aligns with long-term growth objectives.

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 22 Mar 2026 日本策略 Japan Strategy 海上观日—日本股市策略周报 Japan Stock Market Weekly Review 季屏子 Pingzi Ji pz.ji@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 中东冲突长期化下日本经济面临的主要风险 上周日本股市继续承压，日经 225 指数按周下跌 0.83%，TOPIX 指数下跌 0.54%。市场主线仍围绕 中东局势的不确定性展开，冲突未见缓和迹象叠加油价高位波动，持续压制投资者风险偏好。尽 管日本政府通过释放战略石油储备和补贴汽油零售价格等政策平抑国内供给与价格，但对市场情 绪的提振有限。中东局势的不确定性持续的背景下，市场定价逻辑有可能从"短期冲突冲击"逐渐 转向"中长期供给不确定性"，从而抬升风险溢价。本篇周报我们着重梳理中东冲突长期化下日本 经济可能面临的主要风险。 [Table_ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, maintain a defensive stance in the US stock and Chinese - funded stock markets due to geopolitical uncertainties, and wait for the situation to clear up before buying at low prices. In the long - term, US stock investment returns to fundamental factors, and HALO assets are favored. For Chinese - funded stocks, A - shares are better than Hong Kong stocks in the medium - term [6][19][21][26] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs US Stocks - **Market Performance**: This week, the three major US stock indexes continued to decline. The geopolitical situation, rising oil prices, and climbing US Treasury yields suppressed market sentiment. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes hit their lowest closing points in six months. The energy sector led the rise, and the market paid a premium for potential "tail risks" [3][6] - **Response to Oil Price Shock**: Under the TACO thinking, the overall reaction of US stocks to the oil price shock was relatively mild. However, the market's pricing of tail risks such as continuous geopolitical conflicts, high oil prices, and stagflation was insufficient [7][9] - **Private Credit Market Risk**: In the short - term, the risk of the US private credit market triggering a systemic liquidity crisis alone is controllable. In the medium - term, potential tail risks are mainly reflected in resonance with other risk points [10][13] - **Scenario Assumptions of "US - Iran Conflict"**: Three scenarios are assumed. In the "quick victory" scenario, the growth style will have stronger elasticity in the short - term; in the "protracted consumption" scenario, maintain a hedging stance in the short - term and focus on medium - term clues in the medium - term; in the "comprehensive regional war" scenario, the traditional energy sector may benefit, but the equity market will face systemic downward risks [14][16] - **Investment Strategy**: In the short - term, maintain a defensive stance (military and energy) and reduce the overall risk preference of the portfolio. In the long - term, be optimistic about hardware + HALO assets, including offensive HALO assets (AI - related physical assets) and defensive HALO assets (traditional physical assets) [17][19] Chinese - Funded Stocks - **Market Performance**: This week, the A - share and Hong Kong stock markets oscillated and closed down. Defensive sectors led the rise. Shipping, some defensive sectors, CPO, and photovoltaic equipment performed well, while other sectors were weak due to geopolitical disturbances [20] - **HALO Assets in A - shares**: Since the beginning of the year, A - share HALO assets have outperformed the broader market. The top 50 stocks in the A - share HALO index are mainly concentrated in technology hardware and the North American power shortage chain [23][25] - **Investment Strategy**: In the short - term, maintain a defensive stance (energy, coal chemical industry, and shipping) and wait for the situation to clear up before buying at low prices. In the medium - term, A - shares are better than Hong Kong stocks. Although Hong Kong stocks have valuation advantages, their fundamental reversal requires the improvement of factors such as the software ecosystem and cash - flow problems [26] Other Analyses - **Analysis of Odds in Hong Kong and US Stocks**: Analyzed the odds of Hong Kong stocks from the perspectives of index ERP and forward PE, and the odds of US stocks from the forward PE perspective [28][31] - **Analysis of US Credit Market Risk**: Analyzed the credit spreads of US stocks/US technology stocks and the 5Y CDS spreads of key US technology companies [37][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term geopolitical situation is difficult to cool down, and the market is prone to rise and difficult to fall [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Supply Capacity**: In the past week, the average weekly capacity in April was revised down from 325,000 TEU/week to 311,000 TEU/week, with the reduction mainly from the OA Alliance. April capacity decreased by 0.9% year - on - year and increased by 5.8% month - on - month. In May, the capacity was revised down from 335,000 TEU/week to 331,000 TEU/week, with 4 pending voyages. May capacity increased by 10.4% year - on - year and 7.8% month - on - month, and the static effective capacity in May is at a historical high [4][31]. - **Supply Chain Trade Risks**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated, with attacks and counter - attacks between Israel and Iran. The Strait of Hormuz may adopt "selective access", and insurance conditions are still tight. Shipping companies have adjusted their operations, such as Maersk expanding land - bridge and multimodal transport solutions and CMA CGM resuming some bookings [27]. - **Turnover Efficiency**: The turnover efficiency is affected by factors such as ship speed, idle capacity, and port congestion. For example, the congestion situation in ports around the world is presented through data on container ships' in - port capacity [39][44]. - **Static Capacity**: In the past three months, 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container ships received 1 new ship in March, and there were no new 17,000 + TEU container ships delivered in March. In the next three months, 6 new 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container ships and 1 new 17,000 + TEU container ship are expected to be delivered in March [55][58]. 3.2 Demand - **Asia - Europe Trade**: From the perspective of Asia's exports to Europe, the container trade volume between Asia and Europe (Northwest Europe + Mediterranean) shows certain seasonal trends. In 2025, the trade volume in most months showed year - on - year growth [67][68]. - **Asia - North America Trade**: From the perspective of Asia's exports to North America, the container trade volume between Asia and North America also has seasonal characteristics. In 2025, the trade volume in some months showed year - on - year growth, while in others it declined [71][72]. 3.3 Price - **Spot Freight and Index Tracking**: Maersk raised the price by $400 to $2,700/FEU in the first week of April, and the booking progress was average as of Thursday. In a neutral scenario, the market freight rate center in early April is expected to increase to the range of $2,700 - $2,800/FEU, equivalent to an SCFIS index of about 1,950 - 2,050 points; in a pessimistic scenario, the price increase fails, and the freight rate center returns to the range of $2,500 - $2,600/FEU in the second half of March [9]. - **Seasonal Trends of Freight Rates on Major Global Routes**: The document presents the seasonal trends of freight rates on major global routes through SCFI and NCFI data, including routes such as Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - Mediterranean, etc. [13][19] 3.4 Strategy - Short - term low - buying of the 2604 contract around 1,800 points [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the transportation sector, including SF Holding, CAOCAO Mobility, and Jitu Express [8]. Core Insights - The oil shipping sector is expected to experience significant price elasticity due to the current inventory reduction and potential future replenishment, particularly in the context of the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz [2][3]. - The air travel sector is projected to benefit from high passenger load factors, which may lead to increased ticket prices, supported by a recovering demand and favorable policies [12]. - The logistics sector shows signs of improvement, with major players like ZTO Express reporting significant profit growth and a focus on enhancing service quality amid a competitive landscape [15][18]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The transportation sector index fell by 2.65% during the week of March 16-20, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.73 percentage points [19]. - The shipping sector was the only sub-sector to gain, with a 1.21% increase, while public transport, air transport, and logistics saw declines of -6.87%, -6.78%, and -5.76% respectively [19]. Air Travel - The domestic flight ticket booking volume for the Qingming Festival exceeded 1.12 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 23%, indicating a recovery in air travel demand [11]. - The average ticket price for domestic flights has risen by 6.6% compared to the same period last year, reflecting a positive trend in pricing power for airlines [11][12]. Shipping and Ports - The daily shipping rate for a 270,000-ton vessel from Ras Tanura to Ningbo was reported at $346,998, while the rate for a 260,000-ton vessel from Malongo to Ningbo was $127,870 [2][13]. - The report highlights the potential for increased shipping rates due to geopolitical risks and rising fuel prices, with major shipping companies beginning to impose fuel surcharges [2][14]. Logistics - ZTO Express reported a net profit of 2.695 billion yuan for Q4 2025, reflecting a 26.5% quarter-on-quarter increase after adjusting for tax refunds [15]. - The express delivery industry saw a volume increase of 7.1% year-on-year in January-February 2026, with market share continuing to concentrate among leading companies [17][18]. Key Companies to Watch - The report emphasizes the importance of companies such as ZTO Express, SF Holding, and CAOCAO Mobility, which are expected to benefit from ongoing trends in the logistics and transportation sectors [8][18].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the transportation sector Core Views - The transportation index decreased by 2.2% during the week of March 14-20, 2026, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.2% [1] - The logistics sector is expected to improve due to rising chemical prices, with a focus on companies like Milkyway, Hongchuan Wisdom, and others [3] - The air travel sector is seeing a recovery with a 3.34% increase in planned international passenger flights for the summer season of 2026 [4] - The shipping sector is facing geopolitical pressures, but the oil transportation index remains high due to geopolitical factors [5] - The road and rail sectors are showing resilience, with increased truck traffic and a focus on coal transportation [6] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 2.2%, while the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 2.4%, ranking 5th out of 29 sectors [1][13] Industry Fundamental Status Tracking Shipping and Ports - The export container shipping market is under pressure from geopolitical tensions, with the CCFI index at 1120.61 points, up 4.5% week-on-week but down 6.0% year-on-year [5][22] - The oil transportation index BDTI increased to 2849.2 points, reflecting a 1.3% week-on-week rise and a 194.6% year-on-year increase [39] Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights increased by 4.79% year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 17.85% [4] - The Brent crude oil price rose to $112.19 per barrel, impacting operational costs for airlines [74] Rail and Road - National railway passenger volume increased by 10.53% year-on-year, while freight volume saw a slight decline of 0.59% [86] - The number of trucks on highways increased by 14.75% week-on-week, indicating a robust road transport sector [90] Express and Logistics - The express delivery sector saw a revenue increase of 7.9% year-on-year, with major companies like Zhongtong Express expected to recover in market share and profitability [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The disruption of navigation in the Hormuz Strait has led VLCCs to reroute to the Yanbu Red Sea passage, with West African routes compensating for the export gap [3][12] - The escalation of the Middle East situation has caused tight air cargo capacity between Asia and Europe, with Cathay Pacific canceling flights to Dubai and Riyadh until March 31 and increasing capacity to Europe [3][16] - NVIDIA announced an expansion of its collaboration with Uber and Lyft, launching the Robotaxi plan in multiple U.S. cities starting in 2027, which has positively impacted related stocks [3][25] - WoFei ChangKong held a supply chain conference in Chengdu, unveiling a 10 billion opportunity list and receiving a 10 billion yuan credit support from ICBC [3][27] - The first "road-air integration" automotive test site in China has commenced operations, marking a significant step in low-altitude vehicle testing infrastructure [3][28] Industry Dynamics Shipping and Logistics - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index increased by 2.6% month-on-month but decreased by 0.7% year-on-year [30] - The container shipping price index (SCFI) rose by 29.38% year-on-year, while dry bulk freight rates increased by 25.75% year-on-year [41] - In February 2026, the express delivery volume decreased by 10.90% year-on-year, while revenue remained relatively stable with a slight decrease of 0.01% [53] Investment Recommendations - Focus on opportunities in oil transportation, dry bulk shipping, and container shipping sectors due to the evolving Middle East situation, recommending companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping [4][15] - Attention to coal transportation-related stocks such as Daqin Railway and Jiayou International [4] - Investment opportunities in high-speed rail and highways, recommending companies like Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [4] - Emphasize low-altitude economy and autonomous driving trends, recommending companies like CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Monitor international market expansion opportunities in express logistics, recommending SF Holding and Jitu Express [4]