Market Overview - Investors are facing market volatility that may keep the market tense until the end of the year, despite an overall positive outlook for major indices in 2025 [2] - The S&P 500 index has slightly declined this month, contrary to the historical trend of strong performance in December [2][7] - Two main themes have caused significant fluctuations in the U.S. stock market: scrutiny over massive investments in artificial intelligence and changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026 [2][4] Economic Data and Federal Reserve - Recent economic data has reinforced market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a mild inflation report providing some market support [2][8] - The unemployment rate in November rose to 4.6%, the highest in over four years, despite a rebound in job growth [8] - The consumer price index showed a lower-than-expected increase, but optimism about cooling inflation may be tempered by data collection delays due to a government shutdown [8][9] Artificial Intelligence Sector - Concerns regarding investments in the artificial intelligence sector have intensified, particularly regarding the timing of returns on substantial infrastructure investments [4][9] - The technology sector, which has a significant weight in major indices, is under pressure due to these concerns, impacting overall market performance [4][9] Sector Performance - Other sectors, including transportation, finance, and small-cap stocks, have shown gains in December, indicating a shift of funds away from the technology sector [10] - The S&P 500 index has increased by over 15% year-to-date and is on track for a third consecutive year of at least 10% growth [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the quantum technology industry [6] Core Insights - Quantum computing is expected to advance faster than market expectations, becoming a core component of future computing systems alongside classical and AI computing [1][12] - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded for groundbreaking work in quantum tunneling and energy level quantization, indicating rapid iterations in quantum technology [2] - Major international companies are enhancing their engineering capabilities and commercializing quantum technologies, making significant strides in quantum hardware and software [3] - Domestic companies are accelerating their development around self-controllable technologies and practical applications in quantum measurement and computing [4] Summary by Sections 1. Quantum Technology Development - Quantum technology is transitioning from basic research to engineering and industrialization, with significant advancements in core device manufacturing and algorithm development [23] - The industry is expected to become a crucial support for future information technology transformations and enhance national technological competitiveness [23] 1.1 Quantum Communication - The global quantum communication market is projected to grow from $1.1 billion in 2025 to $10.5 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 28.3% [30] - In China, the quantum communication market is expected to reach $1 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 52.3% from 2025 to 2030 [34] 1.2 Quantum Computing - The global quantum computing market is anticipated to grow from $5.04 billion in 2024 to $807.75 billion by 2035, indicating a CAGR of 87.64% [44][45] - In China, the quantum computing market is projected to increase from $118.5 million in 2024 to $410 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 23.5% [51] 1.3 Quantum Precision Measurement - The global quantum precision measurement market is expected to expand from $1.674 billion in 2024 to $4.497 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 9.40% [59] - In China, the quantum measurement industry is projected to grow to $2.14 billion in 2024, with a growth rate exceeding 30% [62]

国泰君安期货研究所· 海 外 研 究 联系人 杨藤 F03151619 国泰君安期货·君研海外 海外宏观及大类资产周度报告 戴璐 Z0021475 刘雨萱 Z0020476 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 02 03 大类资产周度表现及市场高频数据 周度重点宏观逻辑追踪及资产观点 • 固定收益 – 海外固收周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 主要汇率周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 中国货币政策框架演进 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率月频指标 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率高频指标 • 大宗商品 – 主要大宗商品周度表现 宏观数据全息图及基本面高频数据 • 海外权益 – 波动率与风险情绪指标 2 • 周度海外宏观要点：Mini11月——基本面、 BOJ和科技板块 放风险 • 周度宏观经济数据回顾：就业趋势走弱，但维 持降息预期 • 周度宏观经济数据回顾：通胀数据质量不佳， 但降温不可忽视 • 周度海外宏观要点：More Charts of the Week Special report on Guota ...

标普500指数本周小幅上涨0.1%，纳指上涨0.5%，而道指则下跌0.7%。Edward Jones高级全球投资策略 师Angelo Kourkafas表示："本周的经济数据进一步巩固了市场对美联储将维持降息倾向的预期。" 关注我，更多股市资讯告诉你！ 12月21日，欢迎来到股市早观点，我们来看看今天有哪些消息热点？ 标普500指数和纳指本月均出现下跌，股市正经历一段不同寻常的疲弱时期。近几周来，有两大主题引 发了美股的剧烈波动：一是市场对企业在人工智能（AI）基础设施建设方面巨额支出的审视不断加 深； 二是投资者对美联储在2026年进一步降息路径的预期发生变化。本周早些时候，围绕甲骨文一项数据中 心项目的疑问拖累了科技股及其他AI相关股票，而周四公布的温和通胀数据则提振了股市。 ...

预测市场Polymarket数据显示，谷歌母公司Alphabet在2026年12月前成为全球市值第一的概率达33%，仅次于英伟达的37%。该公司目前市值达3.7 万亿美元，位列全球第三，仅次于英伟达和苹果。分析师认为，谷歌凭借大语言模型Gemini和定制AI芯片TPU的强劲表现，有望挑战英伟达和苹果的市 场地位。 Rabe认为，预测市场的排名对Alphabet而言"极为利好"， 这一乐观情绪主要源于谷歌的大语言模型Gemini及其被称为张量处理单元（TPUs）的定制 芯片所展现出的强劲势头。 预测市场升温与市值差距 尽管Alphabet目前仍是全球第三大公司，但其追赶龙头的势头引起了市场的密切关注。 目前的市值数据显示，若要超越英伟达，Alphabet仍需跨越不小的差距。英伟达目前的市值为4.2万亿美元，苹果为4万亿美元，而Alphabet则为3.7万 亿美元。 随着人工智能技术的进步持续推动股价走高，谷歌母公司Alphabet正在向全球市值第一的宝座发起冲击，部分市场参与者已开始押注其将在未来一年内 超越排在英伟达和苹果。 根据预测市场Polymarket最新的数据， Alphabet在2026年12月前成 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI 产业跟踪：谷歌正式发布 Gemini 3.0 Flash， 关注大模型降本与商业化落地进展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 18 日，谷歌正式发布 Gemini 3.0 Flash，旨在用更低的成本提供前沿的智能水平，面向 所有用户推出。我们认为基模是模型家族的根基，Flash 版本强的核心还是建立在强基模的基 础上进行蒸馏。当前时点 AI 行业进入商业化落地阶段，成本仍是限制用户使用的核心因素，因 此降本是产业的系统性工作与大趋势。从变现角度来说，AI 的变现还是依赖现有互联网商业模 式，过往生态依然重要、头部玩家马太效应更加显著，也是这一轮 AI 商业化落地的关键。 分析师及联系人 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] 宗建树 刘思缘 SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title AI 产业跟踪：谷歌正式发布 2] Gemini 3.0 Fl ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 蚂蚁阿福验证赛道高景气，医疗或将成为原 生 AI 垂类应用突破点 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 15 日，蚂蚁集团正式宣布旗下 AI 健康应用"AQ"完成品牌升级，全新命名为"蚂蚁阿 福"，目前月活跃用户已经达到 1500 万，稳居健康管理类 AI 应用首位。当前时点，医疗信息 化正从 B 端建设迈向 C 端价值再造的新阶段，放眼全球，AI+Healthcare 也是巨头重点投资方 向， AI 医疗有望成为 AI 垂类应用破局点，建议重点关注具备场景卡位优势与技术落地能力的 医疗信息化龙头。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 宗建树 刘思缘 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 蚂蚁阿福验证赛道高景气，医疗或将成为原生 2] AI 垂类应用突破点 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 12 月 15 日，蚂蚁集团正式 ...

Group 1 - The China Meteorological Administration announced the "Earth System Forecast Development Strategy (2025-2035)" to enhance climate change response and ecological civilization construction [1] - The strategy aims to improve long-term climate prediction capabilities, supporting carbon emission assessments and reduction path optimization to achieve national "dual carbon" goals [1] - The Earth system forecast will assist in building a climate-adaptive society, providing scientific basis for urban planning, agricultural production adjustments, disaster risk prevention, and ensuring national food security [1] Group 2 - Former senior executive of 360, Yu Hong, alleged financial misconduct involving tens of billions, leading to a public relations crisis for the company [2] - 360 issued a clarification denying any financial fraud, stating that the involved personnel did not hold core management positions in the A-share listed company [2] - The company's MSCI ESG rating is BB, ranking 8th among 13 industry peers, with low scores in social (3.7/10) and governance (4.3/10) dimensions, indicating structural weaknesses in governance and social responsibility [2] Group 3 - Guangdong Zijing Information Storage Technology Co., Ltd. was sentenced for fraudulent issuance of securities, with a fine of 37 million yuan and all 10 executives receiving prison sentences, the longest being seven years and six months [3] Group 4 - The Shanghai Municipal Communications Administration announced the removal of 38 apps, including Zhongyin Securities, for violating user rights and failing to rectify issues related to personal information collection [4] - The administration will continue to monitor these apps and may impose further penalties, including stopping access and administrative sanctions [4] Group 5 - Former controlling shareholder of Guoao Technology, Chen Chongjun, was sentenced to six years in prison and fined 4 million yuan for manipulating the securities market [5] Group 6 - 26 A-share listed banks have disclosed dividend plans totaling over 260 billion yuan, surpassing the 24 banks that disclosed dividends in the previous year [7] - Among these, the six major state-owned banks are expected to distribute over 200 billion yuan, accounting for more than 70% of the total dividends, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China leading at 50.396 billion yuan [7] Group 7 - At the 2026 Sustainable Development Forum, the general manager of Huaxia Fund highlighted the evolution of China's ESG development, emphasizing the synergy of institutional, corporate, and financial forces [8] - The ESG policy framework has transitioned from guidelines to executable measures, driving the ecosystem towards high-quality and standardized development [8] - Chinese enterprises are shifting from being "adapters" to "constructive leaders" in global sustainable development, with institutional investors becoming active co-builders in ESG practices [8]

你是否遇到过这些情况：核心员工离职带走了大量客户资源与沟通记录，导致业务衔接困难？或是因无法提供完整的沟通证据，在纠纷或审查中陷入被动？ 如果答案是肯定的，那么你正面临一个关键的企业痛点：客户数字资产的管理与风控。 二、如何避开选型中的常见"坑"？ 面对众多服务商，选择时需注意避免以下问题： 功能不全：部分方案仅能存档文字，对图片、文件、语音（特别是长语音）支持不佳，存在遗漏，关键时无法形成完整证据链。 企业微信中的工作沟通，是宝贵的业务数据与法律证据。选择一款合适的会话存档系统至关重要。 一、会话存档，仅仅是为了"监控"吗？ 很多管理者对会话存档的理解停留在表面。实际上，它构建的是企业客户资产的"安全底座"与"数据金矿"，核心价值有三： 1.合规风控，保障安全：完整保存文字、图片、文件乃至撤回消息。当发生争议或需要审计时，这些记录是权威证据。尤其对金融、医疗等行业，满足监管 存档要求是刚需。 2.赋能业务，提升效率：存档数据是优化流程和培训团队的宝贵资源。通过分析优秀员工的沟通，可以提炼标准话术，加速新人成长。 3.沉淀资产，驱动智能：优质的存档数据可作为分析基础，甚至用于训练AI客服、销售助手，实现服务智 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the development and growth of the HarmonyOS ecosystem, highlighting the collaboration between major Chinese internet companies and the challenges faced in building this ecosystem [2][3]. Group 1: Ecosystem Development - The number of devices running HarmonyOS has surpassed 27 million, with an ecosystem adaptation rate exceeding 95% [3]. - The success of HarmonyOS is not solely based on its technical capabilities but on the ability to attract developers, manufacturers, and users to create a thriving ecosystem [3][10]. - The transition from 0 to 10 million devices took nearly 10 months, while reaching 20 million took only 2 months, indicating rapid growth [4]. Group 2: Collaboration Challenges - Major internet companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance faced significant challenges in adapting their applications to HarmonyOS, with Tencent's WeChat undergoing 9 major and 83 minor updates since development began [4][5]. - The development process involved intense collaboration, with teams working long hours and coordinating with over 70 technical experts from HarmonyOS [5][7]. - Companies like Meituan and Qunar faced unique challenges in adapting their services to HarmonyOS, requiring extensive testing and collaboration with HarmonyOS teams to overcome technical hurdles [7][9]. Group 3: Developer Engagement - The number of developers in the HarmonyOS ecosystem has exceeded 10 million, with over 300,000 applications and services available [10]. - The ecosystem still needs to attract a more diverse range of developers, particularly in gaming and creative tools, to enrich the application matrix [10]. - Successful collaborations, such as QQ Music's song separation feature and Alipay's screen-off payment, demonstrate the potential for deep co-creation within the ecosystem [10].