Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic market is in a stockpiling cycle, and the spot basis of soybean meal is expected to continue to face pressure [7][8] - The expectation of Sino - US talks boosts the CBOT July US soybean futures, while the decline of Brazilian premium is relatively limited. If the talks fail, the Brazilian premium is expected to be strong, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the domestic market in the fourth quarter [8] - With the expectation of rising import costs, the M01 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend [8] 3. Summary by Related Information 3.1 Basis Data - As of July 21, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was - 49, - 89 in Tianjin (down 13), - 169 in Rizhao; the spot basis of 43% soybean meal (against the main contract) was - 169 in Zhangjiagang (down 3), - 209 in Dongguan (down 3), - 159 in Zhanjiang (down 13), - 169 in Fangcheng (down 3); the spot basis of rapeseed meal in the east was - 147 (up 5) [6] 3.2 Spread Data - The M9 - M1 spread, M9 - RM9 spread, RM9 - 1 spread, and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented in the report, such as the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong being 342, and the futures spread of the main contract being 280 [7] 3.3 International Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.1768, the soybean CNF premium is shown in the chart, and the import soybean futures gross profit was 258 yuan/ton, down 2 [7] 3.4 Inventory Data - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have increased [7][8] 3.5 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The good rate of US soybeans has risen to 70%. In the next two weeks, parts of Kansas and Nebraska will face high - temperature and drought weather, which may be unfavorable to soybean growth, but the overall weather in other areas is normal, which is conducive to soybean growth. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing volume in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the pressure of soybean meal stockpiling is expected to continue until September [7] - **Demand**: In the short term, the high inventory of pigs and poultry breeding is expected to be maintained, which supports the feed demand. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, the proportion of addition in feed has increased, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. Recently, the trading volume of soybean meal at low prices has been good [7][8]

期货市场上看，7月22日收盘，玉米淀粉期货主力合约报2668.00元/吨，跌幅0.00%，最高触及2686.00 元/吨，最低下探2660.00元/吨，日内成交量达108332手。 上一交易日，山东玉米淀粉价格2870元/吨，持平。降雨将缓解主产区高温影响，美豆优良率维持 74%，隔夜美玉米主连收跌1.29%。 （7月22日）今日全国玉米淀粉价 格一览表 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地 | | 型 | | | | 99%，25公斤包装 | 河南正 | 3000元/ | 市场价 | 河南省/郑 | 河南正源净水材料有限公司 | | | 源 | 吨 | | 州市 | VIP | | 食用级 | 汇亿海 | 3000元/ | 出厂价 | 河南省 | 河南汇亿海环保科技有限公 | | | | 吨 | | | 司VIP | | 食用级 | 国产 | 3000元/ | 出厂价 | 河南省 | 河南汇亿海环保科技有限公 | | | | 吨 | | | 司VIP | | 食品级含量99 | 国产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. With favorable weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas and strong expectations of a bumper soybean harvest, coupled with the expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia, the overall oil prices are under pressure and fluctuating [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8910.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan or 0.60% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8092.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68.00 yuan or 0.83%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9563.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.00 yuan or 0.24% [1] - **Spot**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8950.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan or 0.11%, and the spot basis was P09 + 40.00, an increase of 64.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8230.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan/ton or 0.36%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 138.00, an increase of 38.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9660.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00 yuan or 0.51%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 97.00, a decrease of 27.00 yuan [1] - **Market News**: United Plantations in Malaysia reported that in the second quarter, palm oil and palm kernel production increased by 13.8% and 20.5% year - on - year respectively; on Monday, U.S. soybean and corn futures fell due to expected favorable rainfall for crops this week, while wheat prices were firm; AgRural estimated that the total corn production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season would reach 136.3 million tons, higher than the June forecast; as of last Thursday, farmers in the central - southern region of Brazil had harvested 55% of the second - crop corn; as of the week ending July 17, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 364,990 tons [2] Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a neutral stance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Dachen Hongli Huiju Mixed A (019334) reported a profit of 4,495.64 yuan in Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0005 yuan, and a net value growth rate of 0.36% during the reporting period [3] Fund Performance - As of July 21, the fund's net asset value (NAV) was 1.25 yuan, with a total fund size of 12.34 million yuan [3][15] - The fund's performance over different periods includes a 6.32% growth rate over the last three months, ranking 499 out of 615 comparable funds; a 12.88% growth rate over the last six months, ranking 216 out of 615; and a 23.80% growth rate over the last year, ranking 225 out of 585 [3] Fund Management - The fund manager, Hou Chunyan, oversees four funds, all of which have positive returns over the past year [3] - The fund's second-quarter underperformance relative to its benchmark was attributed to concerns over profitability in the internet and light industry sectors due to intense competition and economic downturns, although the manager believes these holdings have strong relative advantages and stable cash flow capabilities [3] Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio since inception is 1.1343 [7] - The maximum drawdown since inception is 8.43%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q2 2025 at 6.71% [10] Investment Strategy - The average stock position since inception is 57.47%, compared to the industry average of 83.27%. The fund reached a peak stock position of 75.05% at the end of H1 2025 and a low of 16.04% at the end of H1 2024 [14] - The fund has a high concentration of holdings, with the top ten positions including China Mobile, China Unicom, Midea Group, Angel Yeast, Zhejiang Longsheng, Beidahuang, Conch Cement, Sun Paper, Tapa Group, and Wens Foodstuff [17]

Group 1 - The article highlights the innovative transformation of local agricultural products in the region, showcasing how traditional items are being rebranded and marketed to attract consumers [3][4][5] - The "Qian Dao Yu Ye Tea Ice Cream" has become a popular summer treat, representing a successful crossover of traditional tea into the cold dessert market [3] - The establishment of the "Zhi Zi Hua Green Tea Laboratory" in Xia Jiang Village aims to enhance the local brand and promote a series of industry collaborations around the Zhi Zi flower [3][4] Group 2 - The bamboo wine production in Da Shu Town is utilizing a unique fermentation process, which not only creates a distinctive product but also promotes sustainable practices by recycling bamboo waste into eco-friendly materials [4] - The price of bamboo has significantly increased from less than 20 yuan per load to over 40 yuan due to the new bamboo wine initiative, benefiting local farmers [4] - Other towns in the region are also exploring innovative marketing strategies for local products, such as rebranding traditional honey dates with a romantic theme to enhance their appeal [4][5] Group 3 - The overall strategy in the region focuses on deep processing of local resources to create high-value agricultural products, aiming for a complete and diverse product chain [5] - New products like "Fu Zi Beer," "Ge Gen Beverage," and "Shan Zhu Yu Soft Candy" are being introduced, contributing to the region's goal of achieving comprehensive development of local specialties [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and commodity futures. It assesses market trends, key factors influencing prices, and offers corresponding investment suggestions based on different market conditions. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market showed an upward trend, with cyclical sectors rising. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, and the basis of the main contracts was seasonally repaired. With the market breaking through the annual high, it is recommended to gradually take profits on the long positions of IM futures and switch to a small amount of short positions in the MO put options with an exercise price of 6000 for the 08 contract, reducing the position and maintaining a moderately bullish stance [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The risk appetite has recovered, causing the bond market to decline across the board. Although the current fundamentals are still in a weak stabilization state, which is generally favorable for the bond market, the macro situation is complex in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the capital situation and incremental policies, and consider appropriately betting on a steeper yield curve [5][6]. Precious Metals - The trade friction between the US and the EU and concerns about the US fiscal deficit have intensified, leading to a decline in the US dollar and a continuous rise in precious metals. Gold has a long - term bullish trend, and silver has further upward potential above $38 in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver [7][9][11]. Shipping Futures (Container Shipping) - The EC main contract fluctuated. The spot price increase drove the rise of the 08 contract, but the cancellation of the high - price quotes by CMA may impact the near - month contracts. It is expected that the near - month contracts will fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract on rallies [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Driven by the anti - involution policy, the copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although the demand weakens during the off - season, the domestic macro - policy support and low inventory provide a bottom for the copper price. The main contract is expected to trade between 78,500 and 81,000 [14][17]. - **Alumina**: Affected by the expected capacity elimination and the increasing risk of a short squeeze, the price is expected to be strong in the short term and trade above 3100 yuan. In the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies due to the potential oversupply [17][19]. - **Aluminum**: The market sentiment is bullish, but the off - season inventory accumulation expectation is strong. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract trading between 20,200 and 21,000 [20][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, the terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory in the main consumption areas is close to full capacity. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract trading between 19,400 and 20,200 [22][24]. - **Zinc**: The inventory has decreased both at home and abroad, and the macro sentiment has boosted the price. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract trading between 22,000 and 23,500 [25][28]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment is strong, but the supply is expected to recover, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to avoid short positions for now and short on rallies after the sentiment stabilizes [28][31]. - **Nickel**: The macro sentiment has boosted the price, but the industrial overcapacity still restricts the upside. The price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract trading between 118,000 and 126,000 [31][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price fluctuates strongly, but the demand is still weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract trading between 12,600 and 13,200 [35][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by the strong macro sentiment, the price continues to rise, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The price is expected to trade strongly in the short term, with the main contract trading between 68,000 and 74,000. It is recommended to wait and see [38][42]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The anti - involution expectation has strengthened, driving up the steel price. The profit of steel mills has increased, and the production enthusiasm has recovered. It is recommended to hold long positions and avoid short positions, with potential resistance at 3250 for rebar and 3400 for hot - rolled coils [43][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has improved, and the increase in molten iron production and steel mill replenishment support the price. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long positions and consider going long on dips for the 2509 contract [47][48]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction flow - rate has decreased, and the coal mine复产 progress is lower than expected. The spot price is strong, and the demand for downstream replenishment is increasing. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider going long on dips for the 09 contract [49][52]. - **Coke**: The second round of price increases has been initiated by mainstream coking plants. The price is expected to continue to rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider going long on dips for the 09 contract [53][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The US soybeans have strong support at the bottom, and the import cost supports the domestic meal price. It is recommended to operate cautiously with a bullish bias [56][58]. - **Pigs**: Policy support benefits the pig futures, but the spot price fluctuates. The short - term sentiment is still strong, but there is pressure above 14,500 for the 09 contract [59][61]. - **Corn**: The market sentiment is basically stable, and the price rebounds and fluctuates. In the short term, the supply is tight, and the demand has resilience. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and pay attention to subsequent policy auctions [62][63].

Core Viewpoint - Geographic indication products are becoming a key to opening international markets, accelerating the global expansion of China's high-quality agricultural products [2][3]. Group 1: Geographic Indication Products - As of the end of 2024, China has recognized a total of 2,544 geographic indication products, with a direct output value exceeding 960 billion yuan [1]. - The core competitiveness of geographic indication products lies in their inherent uniqueness and high added value, which is essential for agricultural exports [3][4]. - The total agricultural trade volume in China increased from 175.6 billion USD in 2012 to 336.1 billion USD in 2023, with an average annual growth rate of 6.7% [3]. Group 2: Export Performance - In the first five months of 2023, China's agricultural exports reached 41.21 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [3]. - Exports to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative showed remarkable performance, growing by 8.3% to 20.81 billion USD, accounting for approximately 50.5% of total agricultural exports [4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Opportunities - The increasing public awareness of health and food safety is driving international market interest in geographic indication products [4]. - The signing of the China-EU Geographic Indication Protection and Cooperation Agreement supports the technical standards and brand reputation of geographic indication products [7]. Group 4: Challenges and Strategic Recommendations - Current challenges include low industrial concentration, weak international brand reputation, and an incomplete industrial chain [8][9]. - A comprehensive approach involving local governments, enterprises, and industry associations is necessary to address these challenges and enhance the competitiveness of geographic indication products [9].

Group 1 - The article highlights that most commodities have risen, emphasizing the importance of policy determination [1] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below the 200-day moving average, currently at 4.35%, marking a decline for the fourth consecutive trading day [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has announced the listing of propylene futures contracts with a benchmark price of 6350 CNY per ton [1] Group 2 - U.S. stock indices have primarily risen, with the construction materials sector leading gains while the banking sector lagged [2] - The market's trading volume reached 1.73 trillion CNY, with a decrease in financing balance by 1.99 billion CNY to 1.889167 trillion CNY [2] - The A-share market is considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, which are supported by technology policies [2] Group 3 - The average daily pig iron output has increased by 26,300 tons week-on-week, marking the largest weekly increase in recent weeks [3] - Coking coal inventory at steel and coking plants has risen to 17.2 million tons, marking a four-week consecutive increase [3] - The market anticipates further policy support, with potential supply constraints due to enhanced safety and environmental regulations ahead of the September 3 military parade [3] Group 4 - Gold and silver have strengthened due to rising market risk aversion ahead of new tariff deadlines, alongside a weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [4] - Recent economic data suggests that the impact of tariff policies may be less severe than previously feared, but caution is advised regarding potential future tariff threats [4] - The long-term support for gold remains strong due to continued purchases by the People's Bank of China [4] Group 5 - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "negative" due to increased uncertainty and expected prolonged high interest rates [5] - China's LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the one-year rate at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5% [6] - The National Energy Administration reported a 5.4% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption in June, with a cumulative increase of 3.7% for the first half of the year [7]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guofu Palm Oil Research Weekly Report: Biodiesel News Disturbs, Palm Oil Prices Rise" and is dated July 21, 2025 [1] Group 2: Report Outline - The report includes sections on market review (BMD and DGE palm oil),产区天气 (palm oil producing area weather), international supply - demand (Malaysian palm oil July forecast and other important news), domestic supply - demand (China's June palm oil imports, import profit, palm oil transactions, and palm oil inventory), and domestic and international palm oil futures - spot prices and spreads [4] Group 3: International Supply - Demand (Malaysian Palm Oil Export Forecast) AmSpec Data - Malaysian palm oil exports on July 15, 2025 were 574,121, a - 5.29% change from the previous month and a - 27.42% change from the same period last year. Among them, crude palm oil exports were 159,392, a 2.23% increase from the previous month and a - 33.11% decrease from last year; 24 - degree palm oil exports were 87,042, a - 22.77% change from the previous month and a - 53.10% change from last year [17] SGS Data - Malaysian palm oil exports on July 15, 2025 were 399,366, a - 22.18% change from the previous month and a - 49.24% change from the same period last year. Exports to China were 22,074, a - 59.27% change from the previous month and a - 69.88% change from last year; exports to the US were 33,750, a - 18.76% change from the previous month and a 170.00% change from last year; exports to India were 49,800, a - 15.99% change from the previous month and a - 58.46% change from last year [18]

Group 1: G20 Summit and Agricultural Cooperation - South Africa emphasizes the need for trade opportunities rather than aid from developed countries, aiming for fair market access for high-quality agricultural products [1][7] - The G20 summit, hosted by South Africa, will focus on three core issues: African development, energy transition and debt sustainability, and reform of the global governance system [1] - The summit aims to gather global agricultural stakeholders to discuss equitable market access, benefiting both developing and developed countries [1][7] Group 2: South Africa's Agricultural Exports to China - South Africa has gained access to the Chinese market for fresh avocados, marking a significant growth opportunity for local agriculture [2] - The introduction of a zero-tariff policy for all products from African countries with diplomatic ties to China enhances the competitiveness of South African agricultural exports [2][3] - The trade volume between China and South Africa reached $52.46 billion in 2024, with South Africa exporting $30.64 billion worth of goods to China, including popular products like wine and avocados [3] Group 3: Agricultural Technology and Collaboration - South Africa seeks to enhance agricultural productivity through technology sharing with China, focusing on smart agriculture and sustainable practices [5][7] - The collaboration includes agreements for South African students to learn advanced agricultural technologies in China, which can improve yield and quality [5] - Both countries are exploring joint efforts in developing environmentally friendly agricultural inputs and improving soil quality management [7]