Core Viewpoint - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China approved the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," emphasizing a comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society driven by carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [1][2]. Group 1: Carbon Emission Control - The plan proposes a dual control system for carbon emissions, transitioning from the previous energy consumption control to a comprehensive carbon emission control, which will serve as a guiding principle for the green transformation [1]. - It includes the implementation of local carbon assessments, industry carbon management, enterprise carbon management, project carbon evaluations, and product carbon footprints, establishing a robust incentive and constraint system covering various entities [1]. Group 2: Energy Transition - The focus is on accelerating the green and low-carbon transition of energy, with a goal that by the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan, most new electricity demand will be met by new clean energy generation [2]. - Key initiatives include the development of non-fossil energy, promoting clean and efficient use of fossil energy, and constructing a new power system to ensure the effective integration of green electricity [2]. Group 3: Industrial Structure Transformation - The plan aims to enhance the "green content" of industries to improve the economic "gold content," targeting a doubling of the green low-carbon industry scale, currently estimated at approximately 11 trillion yuan, over the next five years [2]. - It emphasizes energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, aiming for energy savings of over 15 million tons of standard coal, which could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 400 million tons [2]. Group 4: Lifestyle Changes - The transformation of production and lifestyle towards green and low-carbon practices is highlighted as fundamental, with initiatives for clean production, large-scale equipment upgrades, and the promotion of a circular economy [3]. - The plan encourages widespread public participation in green and low-carbon actions, advocating for resource conservation and the adoption of green products to create a beautiful environment and build a beautiful China [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [6][19]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to support high-quality development in the chemical industry, with an estimated market space of around 10 trillion yuan over the next five years [6][7]. - The introduction of the 2026 refrigerant quota plan is anticipated to lead to a contraction in R22 supply, while demand in the maintenance market remains [6][7]. - The semiconductor materials sector is expected to benefit from rising storage demand, with companies like Yake Technology and Anji Technology recommended for investment [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is expected to increase significantly, driven by non-OPEC production, while global GDP growth is projected at 2.8%, stabilizing oil demand [6][7]. - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level, and natural gas export facilities in the U.S. may accelerate, reducing import costs [6][7]. Chemical Sector Configuration - The report highlights a recovery in manufacturing, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.8% [9]. - The investment analysis suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy, including textiles, agriculture, and export-related chemicals [6][7]. Key Material Focus - Emphasis is placed on self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, with specific companies recommended for investment [6][7]. Price Movements - Recent price movements include a 5.8% increase in Brent crude oil prices and a 2.7% rise in PTA prices [12][13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the prices of pure benzene and styrene will fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the incremental demand brought by the easing of the trade war [3][98]. - The empty orders should be stopped for profit. The rapid rebound of crude oil prices at a low level drives the upward repair of chemical valuations. In October, due to overseas sanctions, some domestic major refineries are expected to reduce their loads, with an estimated monthly production loss of 2 - 4 tons of pure benzene. The port inventory accumulation expectations for pure benzene and styrene in October have turned into destocking expectations [3][98]. - The market is mainly trading cost contradictions. Styrene is currently weaker than pure benzene, and the downstream 3S hard rubber has entered a negative feedback stage. The terminal downstream demand has not improved yet [3][98]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - **Supply** - Domestic production: The maintenance loss in September was 60,000 tons, and after October - November, the maintenance will gradually decrease to about 30,000 - 50,000 tons. New production capacity of 56,000 tons was put into operation in September, and 25,000 tons and 41,000 tons will be put into operation in October and November respectively [3][98]. - Imports: The September import is expected to be 400,000 - 430,000 tons, and the import expectation will increase in the fourth quarter. The import in October is expected to be 500,000 tons, and high - level imports are expected from November to December [3][98]. - **Demand** - Caprolactam: CPL operation is gradually recovering, and the Guangxi Hengyi Qinzhou project is about to be put into operation. The downstream inventory of raw materials is at a neutral level [3][98]. - Phenol: Jilin Petrochemical's 200,000 - ton new device will be put into operation from October to November, and Shandong Ruilin plans to start production in October. The downstream PC maintains high demand [3][98]. - Aniline: Maintenance has ended one after another, and the operation rate has recovered [3][98]. - **Valuation** - The reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,500 yuan/ton based on the crude oil price of $60 per barrel [3][98]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Stop empty orders for profit [3][98]. - Inter - period: None [3][98]. - Inter - variety: None [3][98]. Styrene - **Supply** - In September, the concentrated maintenance was 79,000 tons, mainly affected by Guangdong Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical. From October to November, there will still be an average monthly maintenance of 60,000 tons, mainly affected by Zhenhai Refining and Chemical and Satellite Petrochemical. New production capacity is expected to be put into operation in November by Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical, with an average monthly incremental output of 40,000 tons. The phased supply will gradually decline from a high level [3][98]. - **Demand** - The downstream 3S hard rubber is in a negative feedback stage, with high production, high inventory, and low profit during the peak season, showing overall weakness [3][98]. - **Valuation** - The EB processing fee will expand profits in the short - term, but the space is limited, mainly fluctuating [3][98]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Stop empty orders for profit [3][98]. - Inter - period: None [3][98]. - Inter - variety: None [3][98].

摘要：【图】2025年1-6月上海市柴油产量统计分析 图表：上海市柴油产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年1-6月柴油产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前6个月，上海市规模以上工业企业柴油产量累计达到了204.9万吨，与 2024年同期的数据相比，下降了27.8%，增速较2024年同期低16.4个百分点，增速较同期全国低22.2个 百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业柴油产量9576万吨的比重为2.1%。 2025年6月柴油产量分析： 单独看2025年6月份，上海市规模以上工业企业柴油产量达到了42.6万吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，6 月份的产量增长了3.7%，增速较2024年同期高32.0个百分点，增速较同期全国高2.9个百分点，约占同 期全国规模以上企业柴油产量1633.5万吨的比重为2.6%。 图表：上海市柴油产量分月（当月值）统计 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动态 石油现状及发展前景 化工发展前景趋势分析 日化的现状和发展趋势 润滑油行业现状与发展趋势汽油市场现状及前景分析 柴 ...

Core Insights - In June 2025, Guangdong Province's crude oil processing volume reached 7.753 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, which is 12.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - For the first half of 2025, the total crude oil processing volume was 42.216 million tons, showing a slight decline of 0.3% compared to the previous year, with a decrease of 11.0 percentage points in growth rate compared to the same period last year [4] Monthly Processing Volume Analysis - The crude oil processing volume in June 2025 was 7.753 million tons, accounting for 12.5% of the national processing volume of 62.245 million tons [1] - The growth rate in June 2025 was 1.1 percentage points higher than the national average [1] Cumulative Processing Volume Analysis - From January to June 2025, the crude oil processing volume was 42.216 million tons, which is 11.7% of the national total of 361.613 million tons [4] - The decline in processing volume for the first half of 2025 was 0.3%, which is lower than the national decline of 1.9% [4]

Core Insights - The petroleum coke production in Yunnan Province for June 2025 was 25,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 4.0% [1] - The production growth rate for June 2025 was 15.6 percentage points higher than the same month last year, but 1.6 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - For the first half of 2025, Yunnan's petroleum coke production reached 154,000 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [4] - The growth rate for the first half of 2025 was 13.1 percentage points higher than the previous year and 9.0 percentage points higher than the national average [4] Monthly Production Analysis - In June 2025, Yunnan's petroleum coke production was 25,000 tons, accounting for 1.0% of the national production of 2,549,000 tons [1] - The cumulative production from January to June 2025 was 154,000 tons, also representing 1.0% of the national total of 1,567,400 tons [4] Year-on-Year Comparison - The year-on-year production decrease in June 2025 contrasts with the overall growth observed in the first half of the year [1][4] - The significant increase in growth rates for both June and the first half of 2025 indicates a potential recovery trend in the industry [1][4]

Core Insights - In June 2025, Yunnan Province's crude oil processing volume reached 1.05 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, which is 33.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - The processing volume accounted for 1.7% of the national crude oil processing volume of 62.245 million tons during the same period [1] - For the first half of 2025, the total crude oil processing volume in Yunnan Province was 6.072 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, which is 4.0 percentage points higher than the previous year [4] Monthly Processing Volume - The crude oil processing volume in June 2025 was 1.05 million tons, with a growth rate of 19.3% compared to the same month last year [1] - The increase in June's growth rate was 33.0 percentage points higher than the previous year's growth rate [1] Cumulative Processing Volume - From January to June 2025, Yunnan's crude oil processing volume totaled 6.072 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [4] - This growth rate is 4.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, indicating a continued upward trend [4] - The cumulative processing volume represented 1.7% of the national total of 36.1613 million tons for the same period [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a weekly economic analysis from October 19 - October 25, 2025, covering various aspects including industrial production, personnel and freight flow, consumption, investment, exports, and performance of major asset classes, along with important policies and events [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Major Asset Classes - This week, bond indices showed mixed performance, stock indices generally rose, most commodities increased, and foreign currencies generally fell. Among bond indices, the ChinaBond Corporate Bond AAA and AA+ indices had the highest weekly gains of 0.14%, while the ChinaBond 10 - year Treasury Bond index had the largest weekly decline of 0.13%. The ChiNext index led the stock market with a weekly gain of 8.05%. The Nanhua Energy and Chemicals Index in commodities rose the most, by 3.66%, and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell the most, by 6.69%. Foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest weekly decline of 2.06%, and the US dollar depreciated by 0.05% [1]. 3.2. Industrial Production - Production performed well. In the upstream sector, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate increased by 1.30 pcts to 35.80%, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.48 pcts to 84.73%, and the crude steel output decreased by 0.89%. In the real - estate chain, the rebar operating rate increased by 1.64 pcts to 42.97%, the float glass operating rate remained flat at 76.65%, and the mill operating rate increased by 0.38 pcts to 38.27%. In the consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operating rate remained flat at 91.04%, the PTA operating rate increased by 0.42 pcts to 75.98%, and the methanol operating rate decreased by 1.67 pcts to 82.71%. In the automotive chain, the semi - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.95 pcts to 73.67%, and the full - steel tire operating rate increased by 1.06 pcts to 65.58% [1]. 3.3. Personnel and Freight Flow - Personnel flow continued to rise, and freight prices increased slightly. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 6.68% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations increased by 1.53%, while that of international flights decreased by 0.79%. The subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou increased, while that in Shanghai decreased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index increased by 0.01% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [1]. 3.4. Consumption - The growth rate of automobile sales declined, and price performance continued to diverge. The previous period's automobile wholesale increased by 1.00% year - on - year, while retail sales decreased by 3.00%. Both the 4WMA of the wholesale and retail year - on - year growth rates declined. This period's movie box office decreased by 39% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 41%. Agricultural product prices showed divergence, with pork prices decreasing by 1.66% week - on - week and vegetable prices increasing by 5.65% [1]. 3.5. Investment - Construction showed good performance, while the commercial housing market declined. The cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.2 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.23%, and the cement shipping rate increased by 0.6 pcts. Rebar inventory decreased by 4.1% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 7.8 pcts, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 2.8%. Overall, the terminal demand for construction was good. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 7.3% week - on - week. By city tier, the transaction area in first - tier cities increased, while those in second - and third - tier cities decreased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities decreased by 4.7%, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.2%. The land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate increased week - on - week [1]. 3.6. Exports - Port throughput increased, and shipping indices showed divergence. Port cargo throughput increased by 2.5% week - on - week, and container throughput increased by 3.6%. The BDI index decreased by 3.77% week - on - week, while the domestic SCFI and CCFI indices increased by 7.11% and 2.02% respectively [1]. 3.7. Important Policies/Events - In the third quarter of 2025, the economic growth rate declined; the October LPR quote remained unchanged; a new round of China - US trade consultations started on the 24th in Malaysia; the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China successfully concluded; the central bank announced a 900 - billion - yuan MLF operation on October 27 [1].

Core Insights - In June 2025, the production of soda ash (sodium carbonate) in Shanxi Province reached 0.09 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [1] - For the first half of 2025, the total production of soda ash in Shanxi Province was 1.59 million tons, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 351.8% [3] Production Statistics - June 2025 soda ash production: 0.09 million tons, with a growth rate 2.92 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - National soda ash production for the same period was approximately 347.97 million tons, with Shanxi's contribution being 0.03% [1] - January to June 2025 soda ash production: 1.59 million tons, with a growth rate 346.11 percentage points higher than the national average [3] - National soda ash production for the first half of 2025 was about 2006.45 million tons, with Shanxi's share being 0.08% [3]

Economic Overview - Dalian's GDP for the first three quarters reached 724.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.0%, matching the growth rate of the first half of the year and exceeding the national average by 0.8 percentage points [1][2] - The primary industry added value was 37.03 billion yuan (up 4.2%), the secondary industry 257.55 billion yuan (up 8.0%), and the tertiary industry 430.24 billion yuan (up 4.9%) [1] Industrial Performance - Dalian's industrial output value for large-scale enterprises grew by 12.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, and outperformed the provincial average by 10.6 percentage points [2][3] - The petrochemical industry saw an increase of 8.9%, while the equipment manufacturing sector grew by 17.5%, with notable growth in the railway and shipbuilding industries at 64.5% and the automotive industry at 26.3% [3] Strategic Initiatives - Dalian has launched initiatives to upgrade traditional industries, including the "Green Petrochemical Cluster Cultivation and Enhancement Action Plan (2025-2027)" aimed at elevating the city's petrochemical sector to a world-class level [2] - The city aims to establish a world-class base for green shipbuilding and marine engineering by 2027, targeting an industry scale exceeding 100 billion yuan [2] Future Outlook - Dalian is positioned to achieve its annual GDP growth target of over 5.5%, supported by strong industrial performance and strategic initiatives [2][3] - The city is on track to reach a GDP of 951.69 billion yuan in 2024, nearing the trillion-yuan milestone [1]