关税"大棒"，再度挥舞！ 据最新消息，欧盟多国正考虑对价值930亿欧元的输欧美国商品加征关税，或限制美国企业进入欧盟市场，以 反制美关税威胁。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间1月18日，欧盟各成员国代表在比利时布鲁塞尔召开紧急会议，就美国总统特朗普 因格陵兰岛问题发出的关税威胁展开磋商。 同一天，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，各方将团结一致，坚定维护格陵兰岛以及丹麦的主权，将始终捍卫欧 洲在经济和安全领域的战略利益。 欧洲理事会主席科斯塔当天表示，他已决定在未来几天内召开一次欧盟领导人特别峰会，以讨论对特朗普关税 威胁的应对措施。科斯塔称 ，他与各成员国的磋商显示，各国强烈支持丹麦和丹麦自治领地格陵兰岛，准备 抵御任何形式的胁迫，同时继续与美国开展建设性接触。 18日，有消息称，欧盟多国正考虑对价值930亿欧元的输欧美国商品加征关税，或限制美国企业进入欧盟市 场。据了解，这份关税清单去年就已拟定，但为了避免欧美之间全面贸易战而暂缓执行，暂缓有效期截止于2 月6日。欧盟27个成员国常驻欧盟总部代表18日开会讨论是否重新启动这份清单，也讨论了是否启用反胁迫工 具。 欧洲8国集体回应特朗普关税威胁 据新华社报道，面对美国总 ...

智通财经APP获悉，1月19日，国家统计局发文称，初步核算，全年国内生产总值1401879亿元，按不变 价格计算，比上年增长5.0%。分产业看，第一产业增加值93347亿元，比上年增长3.9%；第二产业增加 值499653亿元，增长4.5%；第三产业增加值808879亿元，增长5.4%。总的来看，2025年国民经济顶住 多重压力保持稳中有进发展态势，高质量发展取得新成效。但也要看到，外部环境变化影响加深，国内 供强需弱矛盾突出，经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少。 原文如下： 2025年经济发展向新向优 预期目标圆满实现 2025年，面对国内外经济环境的复杂变化，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门 深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，坚定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量发展，统筹国内国际两 个大局，统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，国民经济运 行顶压前行、向新向优，高质量发展取得新成效，经济社会发展主要目标任务圆满实现，"十四五"胜利 收官。 全年社会消费品零售总额501202亿元，比上年增长3.7%。按经营单位所在地分，城镇消费品零售额 432972亿元， ...

海南自贸港封关首月，进口"零关税"货值达7.5亿元 离岛免税购物金额超48亿元 口岸通关顺畅高效 整体运行平稳有序 海南日报海口1月18日讯（海南日报全媒体记者 曹马志 通讯员 康明乐）1月18日，海南自贸港封关 满月。海口海关当天发布统计数据，2025年12月18日封关以来，截至今年1月17日，海口海关在"一 线"监管"零关税"货物7.5亿元，在"二线"监管销往内地的加工增值免关税货物8586.7万元。封关以来， 各项政策扎实推进，口岸通关顺畅高效，整体运行平稳有序。 在"一线"，海南自贸港"零关税"等政策高效实施，借助径予放行便利化通关模式，海南口岸进口货 物迎来通关效率与成本双优化，有力支撑自贸港产业升级。1月9日，一批进口的3万吨矿产品运抵海南 洋浦港，该批矿产以"'零关税'+径予放行"模式入境，全程通关流程简化、时效提升。该批货物进口企 业相关负责人表示，径予放行让原料进口通关更高效，"零关税"政策大幅降低企业采购成本，双重利好 让企业能更快推进产能释放。 径予放行政策的红利，精准滴灌至海南各类产业发展的关键环节。"对不涉证、不涉检的'零关 税'货物、保税货物实施径予放行，将进口报关单的105项申报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union is considering imposing tariffs on $930 billion worth of goods imported from the U.S. as a countermeasure to U.S. tariff threats, which has led to a decline in global risk assets [1][3]. Group 1: EU's Response to U.S. Tariff Threats - EU member states are discussing the possibility of imposing tariffs or restricting U.S. companies' access to the EU market in response to U.S. tariffs [3]. - The EU's proposed tariff list was initially drafted last year but was postponed to avoid a full-blown trade war, with the suspension set to expire on February 6 [3]. - European leaders are planning a special summit to address the U.S. tariff threats and to discuss collective responses [3][4]. Group 2: Collective Statement from European Countries - Eight European countries issued a joint statement condemning the U.S. tariff threats, emphasizing the need for unity and coordination in response [4][5]. - The statement reaffirms support for Denmark and Greenland, asserting a commitment to dialogue based on principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity [5]. Group 3: U.S. Justification for Tariffs - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin defended the tariffs as a geopolitical decision, claiming that U.S. economic strength is necessary to prevent conflict [6]. - Mnuchin stated that the U.S. must control Greenland, suggesting that European leaders will eventually accept this notion for the benefit of all parties involved [6]. Group 4: Political Reactions in the U.S. - There is bipartisan opposition in the U.S. Congress against President Trump's strategy regarding Greenland, with some lawmakers labeling the idea of U.S. control over Greenland as disastrous [7].

Core Insights - In 2025, Zhejiang Yiwu's foreign trade imports and exports are projected to exceed 800 billion yuan, reaching 836.5 billion yuan, marking a historical high [1] - Imports are expected to reach 105.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.3%, crossing the 100 billion yuan milestone [1] Trade and Commerce - Yiwu International Trade City hosts nearly 80,000 business units, offering over 2.1 million types of products, and engages in trade with 233 countries and regions globally [1] - The opening of Yiwu (Suxi) International Hub Port and the official launch of the Yiwu Global Digital Trade Center have expanded Yiwu's open channels and accelerated the cultivation of a digital trade ecosystem [1] E-commerce Growth - In 2025, the number of cross-border e-commerce import orders in Yiwu is expected to surpass 10 million, setting a new historical record [1]

当地时间18日，丹麦、芬兰、法国、德国、荷兰、挪威、瑞典和英国共同签署联合声明。声明指出，美国威胁加征关税破坏跨大西洋关系，并有可能导致危 险的恶性循环。各国将继续以团结协调的方式应对，决心捍卫主权。声明表示，"作为北约成员国，我们致力于加强北极安全，这是跨大西洋的共同利益"。 ○欧盟多国考虑对930亿欧元输欧美国商品加征关税 总台记者当地时间18日获悉，欧盟多国正考虑对价值930亿欧元的输欧美国商品加征关税，或限制美国企业进入欧盟市场，以反制美国总统特朗普为得到格 陵兰岛而对欧洲8国加征关税。 ○北约秘书长与美国总统通话 讨论格陵兰岛问题 当地时间18日，北约秘书长吕特在社交媒体发文表示，他当天与美国总统特朗普就格陵兰岛和北极的安全局势进行了沟通，并称北约将继续推进这项工作。 伊朗称已查明骚乱幕后推手 ○伊朗总统：袭击最高领袖等同"发动全面战争" 伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬18日晚在社交媒体上发文说，袭击伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊"无异于对伊朗人民发动全面战争"。 经济观察网 据央视新闻客户端消息，○欧洲多国发表联合声明：美威胁加征关税破坏跨大西洋关系 ○欧盟多国考虑对930亿欧元输欧美国商品加征关税 ○伊朗总统：袭击最 ...

Core Insights - China's total import and export value reached 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a historical high and maintaining its position as the world's largest goods trading nation, with a growth rate of 3.8% for the ninth consecutive year since joining the WTO [1] Group 1: Market Diversification - The number of countries and regions trading with China reached 249 in 2025, with trade growth reported with over 190 countries and regions [2] - The number of countries with trade volumes exceeding one trillion, one hundred billion, and ten billion yuan increased by 2, 6, and 10 respectively compared to 2024 [2] - China's foreign trade is breaking away from reliance on a single market, leading to a more balanced development [2] Group 2: Product Diversification - The quality and efficiency of exports are improving, with more "Made in China" products innovatively meeting international market demands [2] - Exports of AI-related products, such as intelligent robots, have seen growth rates exceeding 60% [2] - Chinese products are not only enriching global consumer life but also deeply embedding in global supply chains, supporting international industrial cooperation [2] Group 3: Import Diversification - China has become the main export destination for 79 countries and regions, an increase of 3 compared to 2024 [3] - In 2025, China's imports reached 18.48 trillion yuan, maintaining a global import share of around 10% [3] - A series of stable foreign trade policies have helped companies secure orders and expand markets, providing solid support for trade diversification [3] Group 4: Logistics and Infrastructure - New logistics channels are extending to more markets, facilitating trade diversification [3] - The volume of China-Africa shipping from Yantai Port increased by 49% in 2025, setting a historical record [3] - The launch of the world's first China-Europe Arctic container fast shipping route in Ningbo-Zhoushan Port offers quicker and low-carbon logistics options for high-end manufacturing and cross-border e-commerce [3] Group 5: Resilience Against External Risks - The diversification of trade partners is a key factor in enhancing the resilience of China's foreign trade [4] - Despite external uncertainties and pressures on foreign trade, China's innovative trade development is becoming more robust, promising new opportunities for global economic development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by the U.S. to impose tariffs on goods from several European countries, including France and Germany, has escalated tensions between the U.S. and Europe, highlighting underlying geopolitical and economic frictions [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Decision - The U.S. plans to impose tariffs starting next month on imports from multiple European nations, interpreted as a pressure tactic aimed at influencing Europe's stance on the Greenland issue [1]. - This tariff decision is seen as part of a broader strategy by the U.S. to exert economic pressure on its allies [1]. Group 2: European Response - French President Macron's response on January 18 indicates a strong opposition to the U.S. tariffs, suggesting the potential use of EU-level tools for retaliation [3]. - Macron's invocation of the EU's anti-coercion mechanism signals a readiness to initiate formal investigations and countermeasures against the U.S. [3][5]. - The response reflects a growing sentiment of distrust towards the U.S. within Europe, as well as a desire for a more independent European stance in international relations [3]. Group 3: EU Anti-Coercion Tool - The anti-coercion tool, established by the EU in 2023, provides a legal framework for member states to respond to economic coercion from third countries, including measures like tariffs and investment restrictions [5]. - This tool is a direct response to previous instances of U.S. tariffs imposed on the EU, indicating a shift in Europe's approach to economic pressures from the U.S. [5]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The current tariff dispute reveals deepening rifts in transatlantic relations, with long-standing differences in trade and industrial policies coming to the forefront [5]. - The friction in economic relations is eroding mutual trust, prompting discussions within Europe about reducing dependency on the U.S. [5]. - The outcome of this dispute will significantly influence the future dynamics of U.S.-EU relations, moving from a "dominant-following" model to one characterized by "competition-balance" [7].

Core Insights - Hainan Free Trade Port has been operational for one month, with significant progress in policy implementation and enhanced openness [1][2] Group 1: Customs and Trade Operations - Customs has simplified the declaration process for eligible imported goods, reducing the number of declaration items from 105 to 33, leading to improved clearance efficiency [1] - The value of imported "zero tariff" goods reached 750 million, primarily including raw oil, mineral products, medical devices, and production equipment for enterprises [1] - The number of beneficiaries of these policies has increased to over 10,000 companies [1] Group 2: Export and Domestic Sales - The declaration items for outbound goods have been reduced by over 60%, facilitating smooth and orderly outbound traffic [1] - The value of domestic sales reached 85.867 million, with tax reductions exceeding 3 million [1] Group 3: Economic Growth and Business Development - The number of inbound and outbound personnel at Hainan's airport reached 311,000, a year-on-year increase of 48.8% [2] - Duty-free shopping revenue amounted to 4.86 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 46.8% [2] - Since the closure, new business scenarios such as self-produced goods and value-added processing have emerged, with industries like petrochemical materials and medical devices further enhancing their supply chains [2] - A total of 5,132 new foreign trade registered enterprises have been established, equivalent to the total for a quarter in 2024 [2]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2026 年 1 月 18 日 汇率强则港股强 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面，12 月出口增速录得 6.6%，显著好于我们此前的预期，"一带一路" 出口红利延续，我们预计下半年到明年或为出口转弱的窗口期，届时，决策层 大概率出台大规模扩大内需特别是地产相关政策。 海外方面，1）鲍威尔被传讯令美联储独立性受到质疑，但暂不影响降息节 奏，1 月大概率不降息。2）美国 12 月 CPI 与核心 CPI 低于预期，但伊朗问题 对油价形成支撑。 资产方面，1）央行对汇率的态度有所转变，中间价最快本月破 7。央行选择 "结构性降息"而非全面降息，此外表态不会为了出口压制汇率，表明央行对汇 率升值容忍度提升。2）11 月下旬离岸人民币加速升值令恒生止跌，若美元再 度转弱或离岸人民币进一步升值，港股上行趋势将被彻底打开。 货币流动性跟踪（1 月 12 日——1 月 16 日） 央行维持净投放，但资金价格整体上行 ❑ 流动性复盘： 公开市场操作方面，1 月 12 日—1 月 16 日期间，7 天逆回购投放 9515 亿元， 到期 1387 亿元，净投放 8128 亿元；央行进行 ...