// 热点头条 // 2. 通威股份：2025年预计净亏损90亿元-100亿元，亏损金额有所扩大，面临行业挑战。 1. 微软：马斯克以"违反OpenAI非营利使命"为由向其及OpenAI索赔最高1340亿美元，听证会预计4月举 行；紧急发布Win11/10更新修复关机故障与远程桌面问题，但新补丁引发N卡用户游戏性能下降，需手 动下载解 决。 2.苹果：调整iPhone、iPad、Mac等设备"以旧换新"折抵价，iPhone 16 Pro Max中国区最高可抵5800元， 华为、小米等安卓机型也被纳入折抵范围；另有消息称其首款智能眼镜最快二季度发布；折叠屏iPhone 将首发2nm工艺A20 Pro芯片，计划2026-2028年间为5款产品升级OLED屏幕。 3. 美光科技：拟斥资18亿美元（约140.4亿港元）收购力积电位于台湾苗栗铜锣的P5晶圆厂，旨在强化 DRAM产能供应，预计今年第二季度完成交易后分阶段提升产量，目标2027年下半年实现显著产能贡 献，双方还将深化合作，由美光提供后段封测支持助力力积电延续利基型DRAM产品线。 4. 中信证券：预计2025年实现归母净利润超300亿元，同比增长38.46 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the strategic recommendations for Shanghai's 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the construction of a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing, digital transformation, and green development, aiming to enhance Shanghai's global competitiveness and establish it as a world-class international metropolis [1][2]. Group 1: Economic and Social Development Goals - The 15th Five-Year Plan period is crucial for accelerating the establishment of a globally influential socialist modern international metropolis, with a focus on high-quality development and the enhancement of urban functions [3][4]. - The plan aims for significant achievements in high-quality development, with economic growth synchronized with national trends, improved productivity, and a robust service sector [11][12]. Group 2: Industrial and Technological Innovation - The plan proposes a "2+3+6+6" modern industrial system, focusing on advanced manufacturing, digitalization, and green transformation, while promoting the application of robotics and intelligent manufacturing [15]. - It emphasizes the development of three leading industries: integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence, aiming for breakthroughs across the entire industrial chain [15]. Group 3: Urban and Regional Development - The plan highlights the importance of optimizing urban spatial layout and promoting regional coordinated development, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta region [35][39]. - It aims to enhance the core functions of the city, improve public services, and ensure a balanced urban-rural development [13][36]. Group 4: Financial and Trade Enhancements - The plan focuses on strengthening Shanghai's position as an international financial center, enhancing cross-border financial services, and promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [19][20]. - It aims to upgrade the international trade center by optimizing trade structures and enhancing the capabilities of service trade and digital trade [22][23]. Group 5: Cultural and Social Development - The plan emphasizes the importance of cultural development, promoting socialist core values, and enhancing the city's cultural soft power [42][43]. - It aims to improve the quality of life for residents, ensuring equitable access to public services and promoting sustainable urban living [13][37].

中经记者 郑瑜 北京报道 繁华商务区的高档写字楼，窗明几净的办公室、衣着整齐的员工。看似正规的"助贷服务"招牌背后，却 可能是收割资金短缺者的金融黑洞。 近日，公安部经侦局公布河南省平顶山市一起特大"AB贷"合同诈骗案。该犯罪团伙以"商务咨询"为幌 子，通过伪造银行委托函、利用话术陷阱，在短短半年内实施诈骗上百起。 警方进行全方位摸排核查发现，涉案公司员工多为年轻的"00后"，出行驾驶豪车，长期在互联网发 布"无视黑白户、百分百放款"等明显违规的助贷广告，并高薪招聘话务员。并且，该公司并未与银行等 金融机构签订所谓的"金融合作协议"，存在重大疑点。 贷款成功后，团伙会以"服务费""渠道费"等名义当场扣除约20%的高额费用。当B角发现自己从"见证 人"变成"主贷人"并上门理论时，该团伙则拿出预先准备的"补充协议"，试图将刑事诈骗包装成民间借 贷纠纷，以此规避法律制裁。 刘新宇表示，对银行来说，合同上签字并被认定为借款人的自然人，通常是对银行承担还款责任的第一 义务人，即银行可以直接向名义借款人催收或起诉。银行在尽到了形式审查义务的前提下，其债权受法 律保护。除非有确凿证据证明银行工作人员与犯罪团伙存在恶意串通， ...

Group 1 - A 66-year-old woman attempted to withdraw 360,000 yuan for her son's wedding, but was suspected of being a victim of telecom fraud by bank staff [3][4] - The police were alerted and quickly located the woman, who initially concealed her intentions but was later confirmed to be involved in an investment scam [4][6] - After police intervention and family support, the woman realized she was about to hand over the cash to a fraudster, leading to the arrest of the suspect and the recovery of the funds [6][8] Group 2 - The woman had been lured by a financial platform promising monthly returns of at least 60%, which she believed to be legitimate [8] - The scam involved claims of limited recharge quotas, pushing her to invest in cash rather than through the platform [8] - Authorities warn that high-return, low-threshold investment opportunities carry significant fraud risks and urge immediate verification with police if suspicious [10]

Group 1 - The investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is evolving into a political backlash against the Trump administration, with a subpoena issued regarding renovation costs of the Fed building [2] - Powell's strong statement against the investigation has resonated within the Republican Party, signaling potential resistance to the confirmation of the next Fed chair if the investigation continues [2] - Trump's advisors are attempting to de-escalate the situation, suggesting that once the requested information is provided, the matter could be resolved [2] Group 2 - The upcoming Supreme Court hearing regarding Fed Governor Lisa Cook is critical for the independence of the Federal Reserve, as a ruling in favor of Trump could allow the president to dismiss any Fed official at will [3][5] - Strong economic data, such as a 4.3% GDP growth in Q4, raises concerns about the Fed's independence in combating inflation, with potential implications for bond yields if investors lose confidence [6] - The Supreme Court's signals currently lean towards protecting Cook, but any shifts in stance during the hearing could lead to significant market volatility [6] Group 3 - The selection process for the next Fed chair is expected to conclude soon, with candidates including Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, though Hassett's loyalty to Trump may not secure him the position [7][8] - Signs indicate that Warsh is the likely candidate for the Fed chair, as he is viewed more favorably by Wall Street compared to Hassett, who is seen as too closely aligned with Trump [8] - Trump's upcoming speech in Davos may coincide with the announcement of the new Fed chair, although there is still a possibility of delays or unexpected candidates being introduced [9][10]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：招商证券策略研究 为预防杠杆率迅速上升的风险，上周政策逆周期调节力度加大，监管政策上调了融资保证金比例，部分 上市公司主动发布异动公告并停牌，证监会召开2026年系统工作会议强调严肃查处过度炒作，监管层为 市场降温的举措与ETF资金流出相呼应，促进了市场情绪的理性回归。往后看，A股在创出前期新高后 有望转为震荡走势。进入1月下旬，围绕业绩披露的博弈情绪将会明显升温，业绩超预期或者业绩披露 后靴子落地的方向值得重点关注。总体来看，风格选择方面更推荐大盘成长，行业配置主要围绕春季躁 动和年报前瞻线索布局。 核心观点 【观策·论市】近期资本市场资金面异动分析：为预防杠杆率迅速上升的风险，上周政策逆周期调节力 度加大，监管政策上调了融资保证金比例，部分上市公司主动发布异动公告并停牌，证监会召开2026年 系统工作会议强调严肃查处过度炒作，监管层为市场降温的举措与ETF资金流出相呼应，促进了市场情 绪的理性回归。往后看，A股在创出前期新高后有望转为震荡走势。进入1月下旬，围绕业绩披露的博 弈 ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济|定期报告 2026 年 1 月 18 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 技术进步两阶段的宏观效应 宏观周度述评系列（2026.01.12-01.18） [报告摘要 Table_Summary：] 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1注：未特别说明，报告数据来自 wind，彭博 | [Table_Author] 分析师： | 郭磊 | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | | SFC CE No. BNY419 | | | 021-38003572 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 陈礼清 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523080003 | | | 021-38003809 | | | chenliqing@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 陈嘉荔 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 | | | 021-38003674 | | | gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 钟林楠 | | | SAC 执 ...

面对压力，特朗普的核心幕僚开始尝试"找个台阶下"。 智通财经APP获悉，围绕美联储的各种斗争，终于迎来了终局时刻。 随着针对现任主席鲍威尔的刑事调查引发政治反噬，以及下周三最高法院即将审理的关键案件，围绕美 联储的种种权力博弈可能都会在下周决出胜负。 调查鲍威尔：政治反噬与"找个台阶下" 针对美联储主席鲍威尔的刑事调查，似乎正在演变成一场对特朗普政府的政治反噬。 上周末，美国检察官就美联储大楼装修费用向鲍威尔发出传票。1月11日，鲍威尔罕见地发表强硬声 明，痛斥此举是破坏央行独立性的借口。 这一反击在共和党内部引发共鸣，似乎正在变成向白宫传递了清晰信号：若不终止调查，下一任美联储 主席提名人的确认程序将面临巨大阻力。 目前，最高法院发出的信号倾向于保护库克，但在周三的庭审中，任何立场的摇摆都可能引发市场的剧 烈震荡。 上周五，美国国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特在福克斯商业频道试图淡化事态，称这只是"简单的信息 索取"，暗示一旦信息提交，此事便可翻篇。 财政部长斯科特·贝森特随后附和，暗示只要检察官珍妮·皮罗得到"满意的答复"，此事便可翻篇。 这种态度转变背后的逻辑显而易见：特朗普需要维持"未下令调查"的推诿空 ...

Core Insights - The underlying logic of commodities and liquor is interconnected, primarily revolving around the trading of Federal Reserve QE, which is expected to lead to increased dollar liquidity by 2026, marking the beginning of a new cycle for the liquor industry [1][11]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve initiating QE significantly increases by mid-2026, driven by the current administration's push for interest rate cuts, which are anticipated to alleviate inflationary pressures in the U.S. [2][14]. - Once the Federal Reserve begins QE, the People's Bank of China is expected to follow suit with debt monetization, leading to a recovery in the real economy and a return to prosperity in 2026 [3][20]. Group 1: Commodity and Liquor Logic - The current commodity supercycle is driven by the expectation of rampant dollar liquidity due to the Federal Reserve's QE, which will also enhance the appeal of commodities with monetary and safety attributes [1][11]. - The initiation of QE by the Federal Reserve is anticipated to prompt the People's Bank of China to quickly implement debt monetization, thereby improving the balance sheets of the real economy and enhancing consumer capacity and willingness [1][11]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's QE Probability - The current administration's core demand for interest rate cuts is expected to lead to a significant reduction in inflationary pressures, which will likely force the Federal Reserve to initiate QE [2][14]. - By mid-2026, the Federal Reserve is projected to face a liquidity crunch that may compel it to expand its balance sheet through QE, marking a critical window for such actions [2][16]. Group 3: Liquor Industry Revival - The liquor industry has experienced four cycles since 2003, and the anticipated QE in 2026 is expected to initiate a new cycle, driven by a return to prosperity and increased consumer spending [4][25]. - The combination of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a strengthening yuan is expected to accelerate the return of national wealth, thereby enhancing consumer demand and initiating a new cycle for the liquor industry [7][28]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that will benefit from the anticipated QE, including oil, chemicals, liquor, and high-end manufacturing, as the market is expected to reach new highs [8][31]. - Specific investment strategies include emphasizing metals, consumer goods, and high-end manufacturing sectors that are poised to benefit from the return of cross-border capital and improved consumer sentiment [8][31].

上周国际市场风云变幻，美国司法部调查美联储主席鲍威尔引发争议，贵金属市场迎来巨震。 市场方面，美股全线回落，道指周跌0.29%，纳指周跌0.66%，标普500指数周跌0.38%。欧洲三大股指 分化，英国富时100指数周涨1.09%，德国DAX 30指数周涨0.14%，法国CAC 40指数周跌1.23%。 本周看点颇多，美国核心个人消费支出（PCE）或影响美联储降息走向。日本央行料维持政策不变，众 议院解散且提前大选的相关消息公布后，政策指引将成市场焦点。欧美经济体相关数据将考验各国经济 现状。美股财报季进入第二周，奈飞、英特尔业绩料成为焦点。 欧美经济体公布1月PMI，日本央行是否释放进一步降息信号。 美股财报季进入第二周，除了金融股以外，明星科技股开始亮相，奈飞、英特尔等业绩受到关注。此 外，强生、雅培、美国铝业、哈里伯顿等各行业龙头企业成绩单也会披露"成绩单"。 原油与黄金 尽管市场对于美国即将对伊朗采取军事行动的担忧有所缓解，但供应端风险仍是市场关注的核心，国际 油价连续第四周上涨。WTI原油周涨0.54%，报59.44美元/桶，布伦特原油近月合约周涨1.25%，报64.13 美元/桶。 下周，一年一度 ...