地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/2/13 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货大幅下跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 3.08%报 4941.4 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 10.62%报 75.01 美元/盎司。 2. 美油主力合约收跌 2.66%，报 62.91 美元/桶；布油主力合约跌 2.61%，报 6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) has seen a significant increase, driven by positive market sentiment following Kioxia's strong annual performance forecast, which exceeded analyst expectations by approximately 35% to 60% in terms of revenue and net profit [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Kioxia's forecast indicates robust demand in the flash memory market, particularly from data centers and enterprise-level AI applications, which is expected to outpace supply [1] - The strong performance of Kioxia has positively impacted related companies such as SanDisk and Micron Technology, which experienced sharp gains in after-hours trading [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The global AI competition is intensifying, leading to a surge in demand for storage chips [1] - Market analysis suggests that due to significant investments from large tech companies, the semiconductor supply-demand imbalance is likely to persist until 2026 [1] - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the tight supply of DRAM will continue until 2027 or even 2028, driven by the AI boom increasing demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Tianfeng Securities highlights Zhaoyi Innovation as a platform chip design company benefiting from a triple resonance of "AI + domestic substitution + storage cycle upturn," indicating strong growth momentum and resilient performance in the forecast period [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of Zhaoyi Innovation (兆易创新), which saw its stock price increase by over 5% following positive earnings forecasts from Kioxia, indicating a significant demand surge in the flash memory market driven by data centers and AI applications [1] - Kioxia's revenue and net profit targets exceeded analyst expectations by approximately 35% to 60%, reflecting robust demand in the server market for data centers and enterprise-level AI applications, as well as sustained demand from PCs and smartphones due to new AI models [1] - The article notes that the global AI competition is intensifying, leading to a surge in demand for storage chips, with market analysts predicting that semiconductor supply-demand tightness will persist until 2026, driven by large-scale investments from major tech companies [1] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank analysts expect the supply tightness of DRAM to continue until 2027 or even 2028, particularly due to the AI boom driving increased demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) [1] - Tianfeng Securities emphasizes that Zhaoyi Innovation is positioned as a platform chip design company benefiting from a triple resonance of "AI + domestic substitution + storage cycle upturn," indicating strong growth momentum and resilient performance in the forecast period [1]

公司近日披露4Q25业绩并给出1Q26和全年指引 4Q25为6.599亿美元，环比+3.9%（前期指引6.5-6.6），贴着上线 1Q26指引：依旧是6.5-6.6 Q1本身是淡季，还能做到环比持平，我们认为一方面体现了公司海外客户受益ai基建订单持续增加，另一方面也 体现了存储客户产能挤占带来的正面影响，可谓韧性十足。 4Q25为13.0%（前期指引12%-14%）， 1Q26指引：13%-15% 业绩会表示25年4季度开始涨价，公司认为8寸厂产能紧缺，#26年仍然有涨价空间，预计2Q毛利率会有更好的表 现。 4Q25:6.335亿美元 25全年：18.14亿美元 26年:整体资本开支预计下降，但27年将提升 主要为12寸扩产资本开支，公司表示9A工厂超预期完成建设（65亿美元），9B工厂设备订单大部分已经下定，26 年10月开始movein设备，2027年预计开始投产 【华福大科技&海外】华虹4Q25:涨价超预期，期待先进制程 公司近日披露4Q25业绩并给出1Q26和全年指引 4Q25为6.599亿美元，环比+3.9%（前期指引6.5-6.6），贴着上线 1Q26指引：依旧是6.5-6.6 Q1本身是淡季 ...

经济观察网近期半导体行业关注度提升，特别是AI芯片领域。2月11日有报道称字节跳动正在推进自研 AI芯片并与三星洽谈代工合作，计划年内量产，这可能间接提振半导体材料板块情绪。清溢光电作为 掩膜版供应商，业务涉及半导体芯片领域，但公司未在近7天发布重大事件公告。 公司最新财务数据为2025年1-9月业绩：营业收入9.28亿元，同比增长12.28%；归母净利润1.44亿元，同 比增长19.33%。该数据反映公司稳健增长，但非近7天新发布信息，对短期股价影响有限。 股票近期走势 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 清溢光电近7天股价呈现波动上涨趋势，区间累计涨幅4.42%。具体来看：2月9日收盘29.52元，单日涨 2.75%；2月10日微跌0.14%；2月11日上涨1.22%，主力资金净流入94.96万元；2月12日收盘30.00元，涨 0.54%，但主力资金转为净流出534.37万元。截至2月13日最新数据，股价为29.71元，较前日跌0.97%。 资金面显示主力趋势不明显，筹码分散，技术面提示股价接近支撑位29.78元。 财报分析 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing two distinct but resonant waves of incremental capital from mainland China and South Korean retail investors, with mainland southbound funds achieving a record net purchase of 1.41 trillion HKD, establishing themselves as core builders of pricing power in the market [1][10] - Southbound funds are characterized by long-term value investment, while South Korean retail investors engage in high-frequency trading and narrative-driven investments, creating a diversified funding source and a layered pricing logic in the Hong Kong market [1][10] Funding Scale and Structure - Southbound funds have become the core incremental source and valuation system reshaper for the Hong Kong market, with a cumulative net inflow of 5.11 trillion HKD by the end of 2025, and a market value exceeding 6.3 trillion HKD, accounting for 12.7% of the total market [2] - South Korean retail investors, while having a smaller capital scale, exhibit concentrated trading behavior and significant leverage, particularly impacting specific sectors like new economy IPOs and the semiconductor industry [2][5] Industry Preferences - Southbound funds focus on financials and high-dividend utilities, with significant investments in major banks and state-owned enterprises driven by high dividend yields and low valuation levels, while South Korean investors show minimal interest in these sectors [3][5] - South Korean retail investors heavily invested in Xiaomi and MiniMax-WP, demonstrating a high turnover and narrative-driven trading approach, contrasting with the stable, long-term holdings of Southbound funds [5][8] Trading Behavior and Decision-Making - Southbound funds exhibit a decision-making anchor based on dividend yield, ROE stability, and free cash flow generation, characterized by continuous accumulation and stable holdings, as seen with significant net purchases in major banks [8][9] - South Korean retail investors, on the other hand, are driven by industry narrative strength and social media trends, with a high frequency of trading and a tendency to hold stocks for less than three months, reflecting a stark contrast to the long-term holding strategy of Southbound funds [9][10] Market Dynamics - The influx of South Korean retail investors into the Hong Kong market represents a diversification of the investor base, providing liquidity while also potentially increasing volatility during certain periods [9][10] - The interaction between Southbound funds and South Korean retail investors is creating a new normal in the Hong Kong market characterized by layered pricing and concurrent narratives, necessitating both stable investment strategies and agile trading approaches [10]

2026年02月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡反弹 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 3 | | 铜：海外扰动增强，价格承压 | 5 | | 锌：跟随宏观波动 | 7 | | 铅：国内库存增加，价格承压 | 9 | | 锡：节前控制持仓 | 10 | | 铝：小幅下跌 | 11 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：受美股拖累下行 | 13 | | 钯：贵金属板块又见疲态，走势撤步 | 13 | | 镍：印尼与菲律宾消息博弈，镍价宽幅震荡 | 15 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：周度库存去库，关注节前资金行为 | 17 | | 工业硅：关注下方空间 | 19 | | 多晶硅：关注节后现货成交情况 | 19 | | 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：偏弱震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates a generally optimistic outlook for the A-share market before and after the Spring Festival, suggesting that long-term investors should hold stocks while short-term traders should adjust their positions based on risk preferences [2][10] - The report highlights that the market is currently in a slow bull phase, with expectations of improved liquidity and policy support after the holiday, which could create new investment opportunities [3][11] - Key sectors showing strength include electric grid equipment, liquid cooling, and semiconductors, while media and consumer sectors are experiencing adjustments, indicating a phase of stock selection and market competition [9][12] Group 2 - The semiconductor sector is identified as a long-term investment opportunity, with a projected growth of 10.10% in 2023, driven by digital transformation and geopolitical factors [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on stocks with strong performance and growth expectations within the semiconductor sector, while advising caution against high-flying stocks lacking fundamental support [8][11] - The report notes that the market's trading volume has been around 2 trillion yuan, reflecting a cautious sentiment among investors, which suggests that a careful approach to investment is necessary [3][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing two distinct but resonant waves of incremental capital from mainland China and South Korean retail investors, leading to a diversification of funding sources and a layered pricing logic in the market [1][14]. Group 1: Scale and Structure - Southbound funds have established themselves as the core incremental source and revaluation force in the Hong Kong stock market, with a cumulative net inflow of 5.11 trillion HKD by the end of 2025, and a record annual net purchase of 1.41 trillion HKD in 2025 [2]. - The market capitalization of southbound funds has surpassed 6.3 trillion HKD, accounting for 12.7% of the total market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks, indicating their evolution into an "endogenous pricing variable" [2]. Group 2: Trading Behavior of South Korean Retail Investors - South Korean retail investors, while having a relatively limited capital size, exhibit highly concentrated and leveraged trading behaviors, particularly impacting specific sectors such as new economy IPOs and the semiconductor industry [5]. - In early 2026, South Korean retail investors made a net purchase of over 2 million USD in MiniMax-WP, contributing significantly to its IPO, which saw an oversubscription of 1837 times [5]. Group 3: Industry Preferences - Southbound funds focus on financials and high-dividend utilities, with significant investments in companies like China Construction Bank and China Mobile, driven by high dividend yields and low valuation levels [6]. - South Korean investors, on the other hand, show a preference for high-growth sectors, with notable investments in Xiaomi and MiniMax-WP, reflecting a narrative-driven trading strategy [8]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Southbound funds demonstrate a long-term investment strategy characterized by stable holdings and systematic increases in positions, as seen with China Construction Bank, which saw a net purchase of 7.39 billion shares in 2025 [12]. - South Korean retail investors engage in high-frequency trading with a focus on social media trends and community consensus, leading to a rapid turnover of holdings, with an average holding period of less than three months [13]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The influx of South Korean retail investors into the Hong Kong market represents a diversification of the investor base, contributing to liquidity while also potentially increasing volatility during certain periods [14]. - The interaction between the long-term positioning of southbound funds and the short-term trading strategies of South Korean investors creates a new normal in the Hong Kong stock market characterized by layered pricing and concurrent narratives [14].

港股半导体板块表现活跃，天数智芯涨超10%，兆易创新、天域半导体、中芯国际、澜起科技上扬。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...