受疲软就业数据影响，市场对美联储12月降息的预期持续升温。最新数据显示，美联储在12月议息会议上降息25个基点的概率已升至约87%。 高盛研究公司在最新报告中明确判断，美国劳动力市场已出现明显降温迹象，美联储12月降息25个基点"基本板上钉钉"。该行首席经济学家简·哈祖斯指 出，延迟发布的9月非农就业报告增长乏力，且其他指标显示10月出现新的裁员情况，尤其是20至24岁大学毕业生的失业率已攀升至8.5%，较2022年低点 大幅上升。 对于更长期的路径，高盛预测美联储可能在2026年上半年放缓降息步伐，最终将联邦基金利率降至3%-3.25%的区间。 与此同时，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特作为下一任美联储主席的热门人选，其政策倾向与潜在执行力正引发市场深入讨论。哈塞特本人近期表 示，他认为美联储下次会议可能会降息约25个基点。 然而，华尔街分析人士警告，即便哈塞特获得任命，其推行任何激进宽松政策意图都将面临美联储集体决策制度的严峻挑战。PGIM固定收益公司联席首 席投资官格雷戈里·彼得斯指出，利率决策由委员会集体决定，新任主席难以单方面推动快速降息。 市场对潜在人事变动的担忧，已触及对美联储独立性的关切。彼 ...

"我预计美联储将在下周会议上降息。我知道10月会议后出现了很多反复的讨论，尤其是鲍威尔表现得有些鹰派，但我认为这更多是因为政府停摆导致 缺乏可用数据，"杰富瑞集团（Jefferies）首席美国经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯（Thomas Simons）表示。 根据路透社对100多位经济学家的调查，美联储将在12月9日至10日的政策会议上降息25个基点，以支持正在降温的劳动力市场。 这一强烈共识与11月的调查结果大致吻合，也与利率期货市场隐含的近85%降息概率相符，但与政策制定者之间日益加深的分歧形成鲜明对比——他 们对这个全球最大经济体下周是否需要进一步的宽松政策存在争议。 在10月份降息25个基点后，美联储主席鲍威尔警告称需警惕通胀反弹，并强调12月的降息行动"远非板上钉钉"。自2021年3月以来，通胀率一直高于美 联储2%的目标。 一场持续43天的政府停摆导致关键经济数据发布受阻，进一步加剧了这一担忧。 10月会议纪要还显示，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）内部存在严重分歧——部分成员倾向于维持利率不变，另有几位明确反对10月的降息决定。 尽管对该决定及未来政策路径存在分歧，但在11月28日至12月4日的路透社调查 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 China City Potential Ranking has been released, highlighting the dynamic changes in cities as economic, consumption, and cultural hubs, based on comprehensive evaluations of over 300 cities using various authoritative data sources [2][4]. Group 1: City Rankings - The top ten cities in the 2025 potential ranking are Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Wuhan, and Nanjing [4]. - The leading cities are primarily located in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomerations, which are characterized by economic vitality, dense populations, and well-developed infrastructure [7][8]. Group 2: Comparative Analysis of Major Cities - Beijing leads with a strong foundation in technology, education, and healthcare, showcasing its "internal strength" [9]. - Shanghai maintains its position through its role as an "open portal," leveraging global port throughput and foreign investment [11]. - Shenzhen excels in R&D investment and high-tech industries, ranking third, while Guangzhou benefits from its historical commercial significance and strong consumer market, ranking fourth [12][15]. - Chongqing outperforms Chengdu in overall potential scores, driven by its large economic scale and infrastructure investments [16]. - Chengdu, however, shows higher economic and commercial vitality, attributed to its innovative environment and strong consumer culture [18]. Group 3: Economic and Commercial Vitality - Shanghai ranks first in economic vitality, followed by Shenzhen and Beijing, with Guangzhou and Chengdu also in the top five [31]. - Guangzhou leads in incremental economic indicators, while Chengdu shows superior growth rates in key metrics, reflecting strong internal growth and market resilience [33]. - In the newly introduced commercial vitality dimension, Guangzhou and Chengdu surpass Shanghai and Shenzhen, indicating their robust commercial networks and consumer engagement [35][37]. Group 4: Transportation and Infrastructure - Beijing, Shanghai, and Chongqing rank as the top three cities in transportation, forming a "diamond hub" for national transport networks [43]. - Beijing's extensive public transport system and road network support its status as a major urban center, while Shanghai's international transport capabilities enhance its global connectivity [43][44]. Group 5: Healthcare and Education - Beijing ranks first in social healthcare, followed by Shenzhen and Shanghai, reflecting their strong healthcare systems supported by economic strength [48]. - In education, Beijing and Shanghai lead, with Guangzhou recognized as a key educational center in South China, contributing to regional talent supply [52][54]. Group 6: Technological Innovation - The top three cities in technological innovation are Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai, due to their advantages in basic research and technology commercialization [56]. - Guangzhou also demonstrates significant technological capabilities, particularly in biomedicine and information technology, indicating a solid foundation for future growth [58].

这里的目标则是利用新闻来预测更广泛的市场趋势。从这一角度来看，新闻一点也不稀疏。每天交易 日都会产生并记录数以万计的文章。然而，当我们从关注具体公司新闻转向对美国市场整体进行聚合 时，一个新的问题出现了。 我们发现，稀疏性的挑战被序列相关性所取代。 正如图1所示，美国每日 整体新闻情绪在相对较长的滞后期内都表现出高度的自相关性。 图1：美国每日整体新闻情绪的滞后自相关 每日整体数据通过对所有与美国上市股票相关的文章的情绪评分进行求和来计算。 这似乎对我们既 定的目标提出了真正的挑战——利用整体新闻信号来预测美国市场的剧烈变化。要实现这一点，我 们需要一个尽可能接近"无记忆"的指标。这样的指标才更有可能及时感知市场的转折。 Amit Das LSEG 新闻数据与API业务 在过去几十年里，美国展现出极强的增长韧性，期间伴随少数几次急剧的熊市。然而，总体趋势保持 积极，熊市后的复苏通常也很迅速。我们可以用S&P500来说明这一点。在COVID-19疫情初期的冲 击下，S&P500市值下跌约30%。然而，仅一个月后它便开始稳步回升。在六个月内，它完全收复了 失地。到年底时，指数较疫情初始已上涨超过10%。 在本篇洞 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：工银国际） 2025年12月5日，工银国际作为联席账簿管理人及联席牵头经办人，助力广东天域半导体股份有限公司 （"天域半导体"或"公司"，股票代码：2658.HK）成功于香港联交所主板上市。 本次发行30,070,500股，最终发行价格定为58.0港元/股，总发行规模约为2.24亿美元（绿鞋前）。 工银国际作为项目的联席账簿管理人及联席牵头经办人，在发行阶段为发行人甄选来自不同投资人的多 元化订单，助力公司成功上市。 资料来源：招股书、联交所公司公告 工银国际控股有限公司（工银国际）是中国工商银行股份有限公司（工商银行）在香港的全资子公司。 作为一家在香港注册的公司，工银国际依托母行卓越的品牌、雄厚的资金实力、广泛的客户基础以及领 先的金融产品，依托內地，立足香港，面向境內、境外资本市场，向广大的海內外融资客户及投资者提 供企业融资、投资业务、销售交易和资产管理等四大产品线服务，另外，工银国际提供覆盖全球与中国 的宏观经济、国际金融市场、环保、医疗等热门行业的市场研究服务。 本次发行是工银国际发挥驻港中资金融力量，服务制造业龙头企业高质量发展的重要成果，亦是工银国 际坚持做好"五篇大文 ...

【12月5日美银策略团队提"空窗期"理论，警示AI市场短期波动】12月5日，美国银行策略团队提出"空 窗期"理论，警告AI资本支出增长与收入转换的时间差或引发市场短期波动。美银美股与量化策略主管 指出，超大规模科技公司资本支出占比从10年前30%提至60%，虽远低于互联网泡沫时期140%峰值，但 微软、亚马逊等巨头年度投入将从今年4000亿美元跃升至2026年5100亿美元。美银对比历史周期称，当 前市场有本质差异，股票配置比例低于泡沫时期，获利成长支撑估值体系，IPO规模可控，对未获利企 业投机热情消退。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯猎报 12.05 11:33:15 周五 美国银行:AI支出与收入差或引波 动,2026年投入将达5100亿 【12月5日美银策略团队提"空窗期"理论,警示AI 市场短期波动】 12月5日,美国银行策略团队提 出"空窗期"理论,警告AI资本支出增长与收入转 换的时间差或引发市场短期波动。美银美股与量化 策略主管指出,超大规模科技公司资本支出占比从 10年前30%提至60%,虽远低 ...

Core Inflation and Fed Policy - The core PCE likely rose 2.9% year-on-year in September, moving away from the Fed's target of a 2% annual rate, marking 55 consecutive months above the target [2] - Persistent inflation is expected to strengthen the position of Fed hawks who advocate for slower rate cuts [2] Market Volatility and Expectations - Volatility indices, such as the bitcoin implied volatility index (BVIV), remain stable around 36%, indicating a 24-hour expected price swing of 1.88%, suggesting low volatility expectations [3] - Anticipated Fed rate cuts next week are likely influencing the low volatility, with a 25 basis point cut on December 10 priced in as a certainty [3] Impact on Cryptocurrency - A softer-than-expected PCE report could lead to a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield below 4%, potentially allowing Bitcoin (BTC) to break out of its recent trading range of $92,000-$94,000 [4] - Analysts suggest that a contained PCE and softer labor data would support a rebound in cryptocurrencies, while any upside surprise may keep markets range-bound until the Fed's direction is clarified [4] Alternative Cryptocurrencies Volatility - Analysts at ING caution that any decline in benchmark yields may be temporary, with similar impacts expected on alternative cryptocurrencies [5] - Ether's one-day implied volatility index stands at 57.23%, indicating a 24-hour price swing of 3%, while SOL and XRP show volatility indices suggesting price moves of 3.86% and 4.3%, respectively [5]

Major Mergers and Acquisitions - Kimberly-Clark is set to acquire Kenvue for approximately $48.7 billion, creating a large consumer health products company with projected annual net revenue of about $32 billion by 2025 [1] - Abbott Laboratories has agreed to acquire Exact Sciences for $23 billion, marking its largest acquisition in nearly a decade, focusing on rapid cancer detection [2] - Pfizer has successfully acquired Metsera for over $10 billion after winning a bidding war against Novo Nordisk [3] - AkzoNobel plans to merge with Axalta Coating Systems, resulting in a combined company valued at $25 billion, with expected annual revenue of $17 billion [5] - Parker Hannifin will acquire Filtration Group for $9.25 billion, enhancing its industrial business portfolio [5] - Macquarie Asset Management proposed to acquire Qube Holdings, valuing the Australian logistics company at approximately $7.5 billion [6] - Omnicom Group's acquisition of Interpublic Group has been finalized, creating the largest marketing communications group globally with revenues exceeding $25 billion [8] Chinese Market Developments - Starbucks announced the sale of a controlling stake in its China business to Boyu Capital for $4 billion, aiming to double its store count in China [11][12] - CPE Yuanfeng is forming a joint venture with Burger King to establish "Burger King China," with an initial investment of $350 million [12] - China International Capital Corporation plans to acquire Xinda Securities and Dongxing Securities, potentially creating a leading brokerage firm in the market [12] Other Notable Transactions - GlobalFoundries has acquired Advanced Micro Foundry to expand its presence in the emerging silicon photonics industry [13] - Panasonic Holdings is selling its subsidiary Panasonic Housing Solutions to YKK Group, which focuses on residential equipment [13] - Posco Holdings will acquire a 30% stake in Mineral Resources' lithium business for approximately AUD 1.2 billion (USD 765 million) [14]

Group 1: Mortgage Rates and Housing Market - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the U.S. has decreased to 6.19%, marking the second lowest value of the year, following 6.17% on October 30 [1] - This rate has declined for two consecutive weeks, down from 6.23% a week prior and 6.69% a year ago [1] - The decrease in mortgage rates is influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, contributing to an overall downward trend since July [1] - In October, existing home sales in the U.S. increased by 1.2% month-over-month, reaching the highest level in eight months, attributed to the decline in mortgage rates [1] - The drop in mortgage rates is seen as positive for potential homebuyers, enhancing their purchasing power, although economic uncertainty and a weak job market may still affect buyer confidence [1] Group 2: Employment Market - In November, the U.S. private sector experienced a reduction of 32,000 jobs, indicating a stagnation in employment growth expected in the second half of 2025 [2] - This data reflects layoffs within private enterprises, raising concerns about the weakening of the U.S. job market [2]

以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 从细项得分来看，南华期货E项得分61.0，评级为CC，行业内排名21/22（E项目评分维度包括气候变 化）；S项得分75.11，评级为BB，行业内排名14/22（S项目评分维度包括人力资本、产品责任、供应 商、社会贡献、数据安全与隐私）；G项得分82.93，评级为BBB，行业内排名8/22（G项目评分维度包 括股东权益、治理结构、信披质量、治理风险、外部处分、商业道德）。 上海华证指数信息服务有限公司（简称"华证指数"），是一家专业从事指数与指数化投资综合服务的公 司，拥有上海证券交易所、深圳证券交易所和香港交易所的指数编制行情授权。证券之星成立ESG生态 联盟，旨在为上市公司和投资机构、ESG研究与评级机构等搭建沟通与交流平台，推动形成具有中国特 色、国际认同的ESG管理体系。 【ESG小知识】什么是ESG？ESG是Environmental, Social and Governance的缩写，即环境、社会和治 理。ESG 指标分别从环境、社会以及公司治理角度，来衡量企业发展的可持续 ...