国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：以旧换新补贴符合预期，动力需求仍有支撑 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注上游工厂减产节奏 | 6 | | 多晶硅：区间震荡，关注行情波动 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025年12月31日 2025 年 12 月 31 日 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 132,390 | 6,680 | 8,950 | 20,100 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The policy of exempting VAT on the sale of homes held for over 2 years by individuals starting from 2026 will promote the activity of the second - hand housing market and drive the linkage effect between first - hand and second - hand housing [7][8]. - For copper, although price increases may suppress domestic demand, the long - term driving logic remains unchanged, and short - term adjustments provide opportunities for long - term buying [9][10]. - Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term [11]. - For live pigs, the pressure on supply will be concentrated in January, and there are opportunities to short near - month contracts at high prices [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Real Estate - **Policy Impact**: Starting from January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes held for over 2 years will be exempt from VAT, while those held for less than 2 years will be taxed at a 3% levy rate. This policy will reduce the cost of housing sales, stimulate housing consumption, and promote the activity of the second - hand housing market [7][8]. Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term benchmark price TC is set at $0/ton, and policies may lead to structural changes in the smelting industry [9]. - **Demand - side**: The long - term consumption recovery expectation is strong, especially driven by emerging industries such as computing power centers. However, high prices may suppress domestic demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term price adjustments are good entry points for long - term buying [10]. Glass - **Short - term Drivers**: Environmental protection issues in Hubei may lead to production cuts, the 01 contract's position - to - warrant ratio is unfavorable to shorts, and low prices in Hebei have stimulated market stocking [11]. - **Medium - term Outlook**: The market may fluctuate due to high inventory levels and weakening basis [11]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In late December, there was a structural shortage of pigs, but the overall inventory change was small. The price increase in late December led to re - stocking, and the pressure will be postponed to January [12]. - **Supply and Demand in January**: The group's January sales plan may be slightly reduced, but the need to avoid selling during the Spring Festival will increase supply pressure. Demand in January may not increase significantly, and prices are expected to rise weakly [12]. Other Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately falling [14]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment [14]. - **Zinc**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [14]. - **Lead**: Inventory increases are pressuring prices [14]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted again [14]. - **Aluminum**: It shows a strengthening and fluctuating trend [14]. - **Alumina**: It continues to be at the bottom [14]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [14]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [14]. - **Stainless steel**: The fundamentals limit its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [14]. Chemicals - **PX, PTA**: They are in a high - level fluctuating market. PX supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and PTA supply is recovering while downstream profits are being squeezed [69][72][73]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and it still faces medium - term pressure. Although there are expectations of load reduction, the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [69][74]. - **Rubber**: It shows a wide - range fluctuation [75]. - **Synthetic rubber**: It is falling from a high level [78]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable [81]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market is stabilizing and fluctuating [84]. - **Caustic soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The market is characterized by high production and high inventory [87][89]. - **Paper pulp**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [93]. - **Methanol**: It is strong in the short - term [102]. - **Urea**: The fluctuation center is moving up [107]. - **Styrene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [111]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change [116]. - **LPG**: The CP in January is at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase [118]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply and demand are tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [118]. - **PVC**: It shows a weak and fluctuating trend. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [126][128]. Energy - **Fuel oil**: It is in a narrow - range adjustment and may remain strong in the short - term [129]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable [129]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is fluctuating at a high level. The key issues for the 2602 contract are the height of freight rates, the inflection point time, and the rate of price decline. For the 2604 contract, shorting at high prices has a relatively high probability of winning [131][141][142][143]. Agricultural Products - **Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: They are fluctuating at a high level [145]. - **Offset - printing paper**: It is advisable to wait and see [148]. - **Pure benzene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [153]. - **Palm oil**: It has a short - term rebound, but the driving force is weak [156]. - **Soybean oil**: It moves within a range, and attention should be paid to the month - spread opportunities [156]. - **Soybean meal**: It fluctuates, and holiday risks should be avoided [163]. - **Soybean**: It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see before the festival [164]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [167]. - **Sugar**: It is running weakly [171]. - **Cotton**: It maintains a fluctuating and strengthening trend [176]. - **Eggs**: They show short - term fluctuations [181]. - **Live pigs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and the price is strong before the festival [184]. - **Peanuts**: Positions are being reduced before the festival [189].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-30 受贵金属回调影响，沪镍价格冲高回落 镍品种 市场分析 2025-12-29日沪镍主力合约2601开于126700元/吨，收于125710元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.86%，当日成交量 为785240（+168241）手，持仓量为131413（-5234）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约呈 "冲高回落 + 宽幅震荡" 走势，日内振幅达 4.4%，多空博弈加剧。尤其午后受贵 金属大幅回调带动，沪镍价格快速回落。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场较为平静，镍矿价格持稳运行。受菲律宾雨季影响，镍矿市场资源有限， 且仅有北部矿山招标出货下，矿山多看涨预期。镍矿市场存有一定价差。装船出货方面，降雨量增加，效率有一 定迟滞。下游镍铁行情转好，议价上移。临近年底，铁厂也亟待提前备库，对原料镍矿采购压价心态或将放缓。 印尼方面，2026年1月(二期)内贸基准价预计上涨0.05-0.08美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水维持+25，升水 区间多在+25-26。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格135400元/吨，较上一个交易日上涨2200元/吨。现货交投一般， ...

曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 有色金属日报 2025-12-29 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 陈仪方 从业资格号：F03152004 0755-23375125 chenyf3@wkqh.cn 周五 LME 休市，供应端扰动消息和贵金属上涨推动下铜价继续走强，沪铜历史性突破 10 万关口，主 力合约收涨至 101380 元/吨。上期所铜周度库存增 ...

2025年12月28日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | 工业硅：关注供应端扰动，情绪发酵或推高盘面 | 12 | | 多晶硅：震荡格局，关注市场情绪 | 12 | | 碳酸锂：基差背离待修正，正极厂启动检修 | 21 | | 棕榈油：减产逐步兑现，短期价格反弹 | 29 | | 豆油：美豆企稳，豆油震荡运行 | 29 | | 豆粕：震荡，规避元旦假期风险 | 35 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 35 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 40 | | 白糖：维持弱基差预期 | 46 | | 棉花：震荡偏强，注意市场情绪变化20251228 | 53 | | 生猪：惜售情绪旺，等待元旦后现货印证 | 60 | | 花生：关注现货 | 66 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 ...

近期不锈钢市场涨势明显。截至12月25日，无锡太钢304/2B2.0mm市场价格在13500-13600元/吨，较上 周同期涨300元/吨，幅度在2.26%。 (12月26日)今日全国不锈钢板价格一览表 12月19日不锈钢期货库存录得48495.00吨，较上一交易日减少12106.00吨。 分析观点： 华泰期货研报：需求低迷、库存高企，成本重心持续下移，预计不锈钢仍将保持低位震荡态势。风险： 国内相关经济政策、房地产政策变动，印尼政策变动，新任美国总统计划出台的一系列政策。 期货市场上看，12月26日收盘，不锈钢期货主力合约报12955.00元/吨，跌幅0.00%，最高触及13010.00 元/吨，最低下探12895.00元/吨，日内成交量达129760手。 【市场资讯】 据了解，印尼某主流不锈钢厂周三将出口盘价上调20美元/吨，两周内累计涨幅已达80美元/吨。这一持 续的挺价举措显示出外盘强劲的成本支撑及看涨意愿。 | 商品名称 | 规格 | 品牌/ | | 报价 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 产地 | 报价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It details the current market situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each category, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Copper**: High copper prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to significant spot discounts and inventory accumulation. Upward drivers include further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; downward drivers are weak demand. Suggest a light - position holding of a protective put option portfolio [2]. - **PP**: The basis weakens, and trading improves. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot coal prices vary, and the upside of the futures price is limited. Switch to short - selling on rallies [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, but cost supports the downside. Concerns about customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [4]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness and capital drive prices to maintain a strong - side oscillation. Hold long positions, and reduce or lock positions before the Spring Festival [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: A - share indices rise, and the basis of the four major stock index futures contracts is repaired. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index rebounds [7][8][9]. - **News**: Beijing eases housing purchase restrictions, and the US raises IPO liquidity thresholds [8][9]. - **Funding**: A - share trading volume is stable, and the central bank conducts net injections [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try a bull - spread strategy on the CSI 300 index [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures decline, and short - term bonds are relatively strong [10]. - **Funding**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations result in net injections, and the funding rate is seasonally up but controllable [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider going long on the T contract on pullbacks and participate in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis - widening strategies [12]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Overseas markets are closed for holidays. Some precious metals experience price adjustments, with platinum strengthening and palladium once hitting the daily limit down [13][15]. - **Outlook**: The medium - to - long - term price of precious metals has an upward trend, but short - term fluctuations exist. Adopt a long - position strategy on dips [16]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: SCFIS and SCFI indices show an upward trend [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Container capacity increases, and demand in the eurozone and the US is weak [19]. - **Logic**: The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, with limited drivers, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High prices suppress demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Hold protective put options [24]. - **Alumina**: The market is oversupplied, and the price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line [26]. - **Aluminum**: The market is in a state of macro - positive expectations versus fundamental pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [29]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: High costs and weak demand limit price movements, and the price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31]. - **Zinc**: TC stabilizes, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [36]. - **Tin**: Supply is improving, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [40]. - **Nickel**: The market is affected by expectations of tightened ore supply, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of strong expectations versus weak reality, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation, with strong capital sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate widely [50]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation, with demand weakness. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to production - cut implementation [55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel production is cut, and inventory is reduced. The price is expected to oscillate. Consider exiting the 1 - 5 positive spread and looking for opportunities to go long on the 5 - month iron - ore ratio [57][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a short - term range - trading strategy on the 05 contract [60]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply may decrease, and demand is weak. Switch to short - selling on rallies [66]. - **Coke**: The third price cut is implemented, and the price is expected to decline. Switch to short - selling on rallies [70][71]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is reduced, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [73]. - **Silicon Manganese**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, and the price is expected to run weakly. Consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [76]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, and customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [79]. - **Pigs**: Seasonal demand supports the market, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [81]. - **Corn**: Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is in a stalemate. Pay attention to selling sentiment and policy releases [84]. - **Sugar**: The international market is bearish, and the domestic market may have limited rebounds. Adopt a bearish - on - rebounds strategy [85]. - **Cotton**: US cotton oscillates at the bottom, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise. The supply pressure is released, and the long - term outlook is optimistic [88]. - **Eggs**: Supply pressure is high but eases marginally. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom [92]. - **Oils**: Palm oil may continue to rise but also faces downward risks. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different market situations. Adopt corresponding strategies according to different varieties [93][95][96]. - **Jujubes**: The price rebounds. Pay attention to sales in the distribution areas. Consider selling call options [97]. - **Apples**: The price oscillates. Consider closing long positions [98]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Valuation increases, and downstream feedback is negative. The upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [100]. - **PTA**: Follow PX trends, and the upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [102]. - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. Follow raw - material fluctuations [104]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply is expected to increase, and processing fees may be compressed. Adopt the same strategy as PTA and short - sell processing fees on rallies [106]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to decrease, but the cost support is limited. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a 5 - 9 reverse - arbitrage strategy [108]. - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [109]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand both increase, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [111]. - **LLDPE**: Supply and demand are weak. Go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [113]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Methanol**: The market is expected to balance in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the contraction of MTO05 [114]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the price is expected to decline [116]. - **PVC**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after a rebound [117]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Short - sell on rallies [120]. - **Glass**: The price is under pressure. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [120]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price is driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. Try short - selling around 15700 [122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Avoid short - selling the BR2602 contract [124][125].

南华期货镍&不锈钢2026年度展望 ——供需结构调整周期，随势而动 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 一、核心观点 1.1核心观点 2025 年镍市场整体走势先扬后抑，上半年整体受政策以及宏观面带动偏多，印尼年内出台一系列加工规范化 新规，并且出台HMA基准价均带来小幅情绪上移，此外年内中美关系走势进一步扰动风险管理偏好。需求端 的强弱变化作为底部中枢影响着价格的震荡区间，供给端的印尼冶炼与湿法中间品项目继续按节奏释放，整 体供应环境保持稳定，期间虽有政策讨论诸如配额、成本机制调整以及项目审查等，但这些变化并未显著改 变实际产量。由于此前多批新增产能已陆续进入成熟运行区间，市场更关心的并非单次政策表态，而是可能 真正影响实物流向的措施；然而截至年底，供给端并未出现足以扭转格局的变化，使得价格重心仍由需求主 导。 需求端边际增量有限持续压制上方空间，年中新能源强势反内卷浪潮以及出口稳定性波动均在一定程度上引 领了波段性调整。镍元素过剩的局面长期延续也受制于于需求端无法寻求新的突破；新能源领域在固态电池 尚未市场化之前，磷酸铁锂不 ...

情绪持续发酵，镍不锈钢反弹延续 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-25 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格133800元/吨，较上一个交易日上涨5400元/吨。镍价大幅上涨，现货成交偏 淡，各品牌精炼镍现货升贴水略有下移。其中金川镍升水变化-150元/吨至6750元/吨，进口镍升水变化0元/吨至400 元/吨，镍豆升水为 2450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为38621（-301）吨，LME镍库存为254604（216）吨。 策略 受印尼政策变化影响，当前看涨情绪高涨，预计镍价仍将整体保持反弹态势。但基本面方面库存高企，供应过剩 格局不改，将对镍价的反弹力度造成一定拖累。 单边：区间操作为主 跨期：无 跨品种：无 镍品种 市场分析 2025-12-24日沪镍主力合约2602开于120280元/吨，收于123440元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化3.92%，当日成交量为 386986（+190610）手，持仓量为134454（21822）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约延续强势震荡，资金流入显著，核心驱动为印尼配额收缩预期与外盘带动，同时受 高库存、多空分歧等因素制约。宏观方面，印尼政策影响仍在持续发酵，美 ...

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月25日 星期四 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 我值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 94690 | 93470 | +1220.00 | 1.31% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -310 | -215 | -95.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 94895 | 03580 | +1315.00 | 1.41% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | -175 | -125 | -50.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 94620 | 93400 | +1220.00 | 1.31% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜开贴水 | -380 | -285 | -95.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 3544 | 3 ...