证券研究报告 上能电气 (300827 CH) 海外拓展提振盈利，未来需求可期 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 28 日│中国内地 | 电力设备与新能源 | 公司 24 年收入 47.73 亿元，同比-3.2%，归母净利 4.19 亿元，同比+46.5%， 归母净利低于我们此前 5.03 亿的预期，主要系光伏逆变器国内地面电站出 货承压。25Q1 收入 8.31 亿元，同比+16.8%，归母净利 0.88 亿元，同比 +71.6%，归母净利低于我们此前 1.40 亿预期，主要系中东储能 PCS 竞争 加剧+海外订单单价偏低。公司产品谱系加速拓展，国内外业务双轮驱动， 亚非拉、欧洲出海业务有望贡献增量，我们维持"买入"评级。 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 (人民币百万) | 4,933 | 4,773 | 7,097 | 8,488 | 10,152 | | +/-% ...

2024 年受锂电池原材料价格下降以及行业竞争加剧等影响，储能系统及PCS 价格均大幅下降，地面储 能系统、PCS 主流产品价格降幅分别约45%/30%。根据CNESA统计，公司连续四年位居国内储能PCS 出货量排名第二位；储能系统方面，公司重点推进大储及海外市场开拓，推进户用及工商业储能系统等 全场景覆盖。 事件 盈利预测及投资建议 2025 年4 月23 日，上能电气发布2024 年报及2025 年一季报。2024 年公司实现营业收入47.7 亿元，同比 减少3.2%，实现归母净利润4.2 亿元，同比增长46.5%，实现销售毛利率22.9%，同比提升3.7pct，海外 光储业务快速拓展，公司盈利水平实现结构性显著提升。 2025Q1 公司实现营业收入8.3 亿元，同比增长16.8%，实现归母净利润0.9 亿元，同比增长71.6%，实现 销售毛利率24.3%，同比提升0.7pct，环比提升5.7pct。 逆变器业务稳健经营 2024 年公司光伏逆变器业务实现营业收入27.5 亿元，同比减少4.5%，实现毛利率22.6%，同比提升 5.1pct，盈利水平有所提升，实现光伏逆变器销量25.1GW，同比增长7.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 77.857 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.76%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.036 billion RMB, up 16.92% year-on-year, slightly exceeding previous expectations due to strong profitability in the energy storage business [1][5]. - The company is a global leader in the solar and energy storage industry, with a significant increase in domestic and international orders since 2024, providing strong support for performance in 2025 [1][5]. - The company’s energy storage revenue reached 24.96 billion RMB in 2024, a 40.3% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 36.7%, driven by cost reductions in manufacturing and battery cells [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 27.911 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 47%. The net profit for the same period was 3.437 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 19.036 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 51%, while the net profit reached 3.826 billion RMB, up 83% year-on-year [2]. Energy Storage Segment - The company’s energy storage shipments in 2024 reached 28 GWh, a significant increase of 167% year-on-year, with an estimated sales volume of 25 GWh, leading to a unit price of approximately 0.96 RMB per Wh, down 43% year-on-year due to battery cell price reductions [3]. - In Q1 2025, energy storage shipments surged to 12 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 470%, maintaining profitability levels similar to 2024, primarily due to confirmed revenue from the Saudi energy storage project and export activities to the U.S. [3]. Photovoltaic Inverter Segment - The company’s revenue from photovoltaic inverters in 2024 was 29.13 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, with a gross margin of 30.9% [4]. - The sales volume of photovoltaic inverters reached 147 GW in 2024, a 13% increase year-on-year, with a unit price of approximately 0.20 RMB per W, down 7% year-on-year [4]. Valuation and Forecast - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 12.025 billion RMB, 13.557 billion RMB, and 15.209 billion RMB respectively, with a target price of 92.80 RMB based on a 16x PE ratio for 2025 [5][9].

2025年04月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：试探前高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：企稳反弹 | 2 | | 铜：库存增加，价格回升受限 | 4 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 氧化铝：价格承压 | 6 | | 锌：短期承压 | 8 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 9 | | 镍：基本面短线支撑，镍价坚挺运行 | 10 | | 不锈钢：成本或底部支撑，负反馈预期施压 | 10 | | 锡：小幅修复 | 12 | | 工业硅：盘面考验成本支撑 | 14 | | 多晶硅：交割资源或受限，关注市场情绪变化 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：月差走强，震荡走势延续 | 16 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2504 | 781.60 | 2.24% | 792.56 | 2.62% | | | 黄金T+D | 78 ...

点击 关注我们 报告发布日期：2025年3月24日 报告名称:《 能源电子月报： 汽车功率持续升高，碳化硅渗透率稳步提升 》 分析师：胡剑 S0980521080001/胡慧 S0980521080002/ 叶 子 S0980522100003 / 詹浏洋 S0980524060001 / 张大为 S0980524100002/ 李书颖 S0980522100003 联系人：连欣然 完整报告请扫描下方二维码 国信研究 能源电子月报: 汽车功率持续升高,碳化硅 渗透率稳步提升 2025-03-24 | 胡剑 胡慧 叶子 詹浏洋 连欣然 新能源汽车:我国新能源汽车功率200kW以上的主驱 占比由22年的9%提升至25年1月的28%. 电驱最高峰值 功率由22年255kW升至25年1月的450kW。整车情况:根 据中汽协数据,我国2月新能源汽车单月销量89万辆(YoY +87.1%,MoM-5.5%),产量88.8万辆(YoY+91.6%,MoM- 12.5%),单月新能源车渗透率为41.9%。主驱功率模块情 况: 主驱IGBT模块主力厂商芯联集成、时代电气、土兰微 、斯达半导领先优势逐步确立,海外厂商份额逐步下降 ...