Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 86.6 billion RMB, an 18% year-on-year increase, aligning with market expectations [1] - Adjusted net profit rose 46% year-on-year to 10.9 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 13%, up 2.4 percentage points from the previous year [1] - Core business operating profit margin improved to 21%, exceeding expectations of 19%, while new business incurred an operating loss of 2.3 billion RMB, with a loss rate of 10% [1] Business Performance - Core business: Estimated daily orders for food delivery increased by 9-10% year-on-year, with average order value (AOV) experiencing a low single-digit decline due to increased contributions from "拼好饭" and "神枪手" [1] - Flash purchase daily orders reached nearly 11 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 30%, with non-food categories like 3C, home appliances, and beauty products seeing over 60% growth [1] - In-store travel and accommodation gross transaction value (GTV) grew over 30% year-on-year, with stable operating profit margins [1] New Business Developments - New business segment showed a slight reduction in losses, with the pace of loss narrowing due to ongoing long-term capability building [1] - "Keeta" has rapidly grown to become the largest food delivery platform in Hong Kong and is expanding into Saudi Arabia, covering nine major cities, with plans to enter Brazil and invest $1 billion over the next five years [1] Market Outlook - Increased competition in the food delivery market is expected to lead to higher subsidies, potentially impacting revenue and profit growth in Q2 [2] - Forecasts suggest mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in food delivery order volume, while flash purchase order volume is expected to maintain slightly above 30% growth [2] - New business revenue growth is projected at 22%, with losses expected to widen to approximately 2.6 billion RMB due to overseas investments [2] Valuation - Despite the lower entry barriers in the food delivery market due to increased subsidies, operational and scheduling capabilities for merchants and riders will take time to improve [2] - The company is expected to maintain a leading market share, with a projected profit growth of about 7% in 2025, leading to a target price adjustment to 165 HKD, while maintaining a buy rating [2]

Core Insights - Meituan's Q1 revenue and adjusted profit exceeded market expectations, with total revenue reaching 86.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18% [1] - The core local business operating profit grew by 39% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations by 10% [1] - The company reported record high annual active users and merchants, indicating strong market presence [1] Financial Performance - Q1 total revenue was 86.6 billion yuan, slightly above market expectations by 1.4% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 was 10.9 billion yuan, a 46% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations by 18% [1] - Core local business revenue increased by 18% year-on-year, with operating profit margin improving by 3 percentage points to 21% [1][2] Business Segments - Delivery, commission, and online marketing revenues grew by 22%, 20%, and 15% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The food delivery segment saw an increase in user order frequency, with daily order volume growth estimated at around 10% [2] - Instant retail and travel segments also showed strong growth, with non-food orders in instant retail increasing over 60% year-on-year [2] Competitive Landscape - Management emphasized commitment to compete effectively, planning to invest 100 billion yuan over the next three years to enhance supply chain and merchant digital transformation [2] - Despite competitive pressures, Meituan's food delivery segment maintained steady growth in daily order volume [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - For Q2, total revenue is expected to grow by 13%, with core local business and new business revenues projected to increase by 10% and 21%, respectively [3] - The company anticipates a 15% year-on-year increase in total revenue for 2025, with adjustments made to core local business profit forecasts [3] - The valuation for core local business is set at 18 times the 2025 operating profit, with a target price adjustment to 177 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 34% from recent closing prices [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690.HK) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that Meituan is actively responding to competition in the food delivery sector while awaiting the release of long-term value [3] - The company's Q1 2025 financial performance exceeded market expectations, with significant growth in both revenue and profit metrics [11] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In Q1 2025, Meituan achieved revenue of 866 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 18% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 2% [11] - Operating profit reached 106 billion RMB, up 103% year-over-year and 58% quarter-over-quarter [11] - Net profit was 101 billion RMB, reflecting an 87% year-over-year increase and a 62% quarter-over-quarter increase [11] - Non-GAAP EBITDA stood at 123 billion RMB, a 52% year-over-year increase [11] Business Segments - **Food Delivery Business**: In Q1 2025, the food delivery segment saw a steady growth with a year-over-year increase in order volume of 9.3%. The company plans to invest 100 billion RMB over the next three years to enhance the quality of the food service industry [7] - **Meituan Flash Purchase**: This segment maintained strong growth, with over 500 million cumulative transaction users by the end of March 2025. The daily order volume for non-food items exceeded 18 million [7] - **In-store and Travel Business**: The in-store and travel segment reported a year-over-year revenue growth of 20% in Q1 2025, with active merchant numbers increasing by over 25% [8] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 387.3 billion RMB, 447.7 billion RMB, and 510.6 billion RMB respectively. Non-GAAP net profit forecasts are 40.9 billion RMB, 54.7 billion RMB, and 67.6 billion RMB for the same years [18] - The target market capitalization for Meituan in 2025 is set at 830.2 billion RMB, with a target price of 136 RMB per share [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that Meituan's revenue and adjusted net profit for Q1 exceeded expectations, but short-term performance is expected to decline due to competitive pressures in the food delivery sector, while long-term confidence remains strong [1] Financial Performance - Meituan's Q1 revenue grew by 18% year-on-year to 86.6 billion RMB, surpassing CICC's expectations by 1.4% [1] - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 10.95 billion RMB, exceeding expectations by 21%, driven by better-than-expected core local business operating profits and lower-than-expected losses from undistributed projects [1] - The adjusted net profit margin stood at 12.6% [1] Business Outlook - CICC anticipates steady growth in Meituan's food delivery order volume and in-store hotel and travel GTV for Q2 [1] - The firm has revised down its adjusted net profit forecasts for Meituan for 2025 and 2026 by 13% and 5% to 40.9 billion RMB and 54.1 billion RMB, respectively, due to increased food delivery subsidies and greater overseas investments [1] Investment Rating - Despite the short-term performance adjustments, CICC maintains a positive outlook on Meituan, rating it as outperforming the industry with a target price of 177 HKD, corresponding to adjusted P/E ratios of 25x and 18x for 2025 and 2026, respectively [1]

今天逛知乎的时候发现一个热度2000多万的新话题，是bilibili一个百大up主，好像是美食探店赛道的，我平时不看这类内容，但我有朋友看，和我说他挺 火的。 他讲述了自己被骗1000万的经历，我概述一下过程。他是从2019年在bilibili上做美食频道，年收入很快从20多万飙升到200-300万，赚到钱后他接触到了更 多有实力的大哥。其中上海一个做高端餐饮的老板与其相交，向他推荐入伙新的餐饮项目，这小哥们连合同都没签，就一个口头约定就打过去200万。 过段时间老板又说项目升级，要他增资凑1000万玩票大的，小哥们就又打了200万过去，同时拉了6个自媒体up主，每人100万入伙，凑齐了1000万，他本 人向那6个up主做了兜底承诺。 再之后就是这个老板跑路了，自己投的400万血本无归，还要对6个朋友的100万做兜底。有人说他遭遇了杀猪局，其实倒也未必，他探店能认识的老板不 可能完全是虚构出来的。那几年疫情对餐饮行业冲击很大，死扛的老板最后扛到一无所有的案例老多了，up主们投的1000万虽然对普通人是大钱，但扔到 餐饮业的黑洞里可能都撑不到1个月。 事情大概就是这样，我从中能提取出来最有价值的教训就是人不要轻 ...