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存款搬家引关注,权威人士回应
第一财经· 2025-10-15 10:44
2025.10. 15 本文字数:774,阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 "存款搬家本质上是利率机制作用下居民资产的重新配置。"一位市场权威人士对第一财经表示。 过去20年里,股票、房产、互联网金融产品、银行理财、基金等不同类型资产在不同时期曾成为居 民存款资金转移的去向,并且根据不同市场形势变化,这种资金流动也是双向动态变化的。 该人士表示,从今年以来的情况看,非银行金融机构存款增长较快,主要还是与非银存款定期化、持 有同业存单增长较多有关。 另有专家表示,存款搬家是不同金融市场之间收益率相对变化的结果,而非原因。比如,当预期债 券、股票收益率走高时,就会增加持有这类资产,在预算(财富总量)约束下则会相应减少其他资 产。不同金融资产收益率比价关系改变后,资金会由低收益资产流向高收益资产,利率的影响和传导 作用会体现得较为明显。2023年以来,存款利率与其他金融资产收益率之间的利差弹性增大,存 款"搬家"和"回流"现象时有发生。 微信编辑 | 小羊 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 ...
前三季度社融增量突破30万亿元,M1增速攀升至7.2%有何信号?
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-15 09:54
中国人民银行10月15日发布的前三季度金融统计数据报告显示,初步统计,今年前三季度,社会融资规模增量累计突破30万亿元,达到30.09万亿元,比 上年同期多4.42万亿元;人民币贷款增加14.75万亿元,人民币存款增加22.71万亿元。 作为衡量金融总量的核心指标——社融增速、广义货币(M2)增速延续高位,表明货币金融持续为经济回升向好创造适宜的环境。9月末,社融存量增速 同比增长8.7%,比上年同期高0.7个百分点;广义货币(M2)增速同比增长8.4%,比上年同期高1.5个百分点。 | | | 单从9月数据看,当月社融增量、新增人民币贷款表现较为平稳。值得注意的是,作为反映资金活化程度的狭义货币(M1)增速近几个月回升态势明显, 9月末升至7.2%,比今年2月末的年内低点大幅提升了7.1个百分点。市场人士分析认为,今年以来M1、M2"剪刀差"明显收敛,反映出企业生产经营活跃度 提升、个人投资消费需求回暖等积极信号。 中国人民银行此次将原有的三篇新闻稿《金融统计数据报告》《社会融资规模存量统计数据报告》《社会融资规模增量统计数据报告》合并为一篇《金融 统计数据报告》。同时,为保证各方面获取金融统计数据的全面性 ...
前三季度社融增量突破30万亿元 M1增速攀升至7.2%有何信号?
Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that the total social financing scale exceeded 30 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, reaching 30.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.42 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] - The growth rates of social financing and broad money (M2) remained high, indicating that monetary finance continues to create a favorable environment for economic recovery [1] - The narrow money (M1) growth rate showed a significant rebound, reaching 7.2% by the end of September, reflecting increased business activity and consumer demand [1][6] Group 2 - The combination of government and corporate bonds contributed over 40% of the new social financing, with government bond net financing at 11.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year [3] - The share of corporate bond financing also increased due to supportive policies and low issuance rates, with net financing reaching 1.57 trillion yuan [3] - The proportion of new social financing from RMB loans decreased to 48%, indicating a shift towards more diversified financing channels [3] Group 3 - Credit growth remained stable, with new RMB loans in September at approximately 1.29 trillion yuan, despite a decrease in growth rate to 6.6% [4] - The structure of loans continued to optimize, with inclusive small and micro loans growing by 12.2% year-on-year, and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing increasing by 8.2% [4] - The average interest rates for new loans remained low, with corporate loans at about 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year [4] Group 4 - The M1 growth rate's increase is attributed to the activation of both corporate and individual deposits, with a notable narrowing of the M1 and M2 "scissors difference" to 1.2 percentage points [6] - The concept of "deposit migration" reflects a reallocation of residents' assets based on changing return rates, with total resident deposits increasing by 12.73 trillion yuan in the first three quarters [7] - Experts suggest that the monetary policy will continue to support the real economy, with fiscal policies also actively contributing to investment [7]
货币市场日报:10月14日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-14 14:37
新华财经北京10月14日电(高二山)人民银行14日开展910亿元7天逆回购操作,操作利率为1.40%,与此前持平;鉴于当日无逆回购到 期,公开市场实现净投放910亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率(Shibor)短期品种小幅波动,7天和14天品种下跌。具体来看,隔夜Shibor上涨0.10BP,报1.3150%;7天Shibo 下跌2.40BP,报1.4230%;14天Shibor下跌2.10BP,报1.4450%。 | | | | 2025-10-14 11:00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | t | O/N | 1.3150 | 0.10 | | 1 | 1W | 1.4230 | 2.40 | | t | 2W | 1.4450 | 2.10 | | t | 1M | 1.5600 | 0.30 | | 个 | 3M | 1.5810 | 0.10 | | t | 6M | 1.6380 | 0.10 | | ↑ | 9M | 1.6590 | 0.20 | | ↑ | 1Y | 1.6690 | 0.00 | 上海银 ...
博深股份:接受大成基金调研
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-14 09:25
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that 博深股份 (BoShen Co., Ltd.) will hold a research meeting with 大成基金 (Da Cheng Fund) on October 14, 2025, where the company's board secretary will participate and address investor questions [1] - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of 博深股份 is as follows: the coated abrasive industry accounts for 52.32%, the hardware tools industry accounts for 24.48%, the rail transit equipment components industry accounts for 21.17%, and the leasing industry accounts for 2.03% [1] - As of the time of reporting, 博深股份 has a market capitalization of 3.8 billion yuan [2]
2025 年理财真别想着赌一把!稳稳的才好,一家人的好日子得靠它守着
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 09:34
转折发生在今年三月。美联储突然降息,国内股市跟着剧烈震荡,我买的股票连续五个跌停。最初还抱 着侥幸心理补仓,直到账户余额跌破 20 万,妻子发现银行卡里的钱不翼而飞,家庭战争才彻底爆发。 "那是孩子的学费!是爸妈的救命钱!" 她把金项链摔在茶几上,链扣弹到墙角发出清脆的声响,"你以 为天上掉馅饼?那些说稳赚的人,赚的就是你的本金!" 那天晚上我在楼道里坐了半宿,烟蒂堆成了小山。隔壁张叔下楼倒垃圾,看见我这副模样叹了口 气:"建军啊,你忘了前年楼下老李搞养殖赔光家底的事?现在这行情,瞎折腾不如求安稳。" 张叔的话点醒了我。他在国企做会计,每月雷打不动定投 3000 块基金,五年攒下 20 万,去年还给儿子 付了婚房首付。在他的指点下,我开始研究真正靠谱的理财方式,才发现 2025 年的市场早不是靠赌就 能赚钱的年代 —— 银行理财规模突破 30 万亿,公募基金站上 36 万亿新高,普通人都在把钱从活期转 到低风险产品里。 我先把剩下的 19 万做了拆分。张叔说这叫 "资金分层",就像给家里的钱分了不同岗位。日常要用的 3 万放进了招商银行的 "朝朝宝",工作日买入,第二天就能算收益,交水电费、给父母买药随用随取 ...
金价,猛拉!多家银行紧急提示——
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 06:26
10月13日早间,黄金强势拉涨。现货黄金盘中一度触及4060美元/盎司;COMEX黄金盘中涨超1.7%,也突破4070美元/盎司。 截至发稿,现货黄金报4046.06美元/盎司,COMEX黄金报4066.1美元/盎司。 | | | 交易中 10-13 09:06:57 | | 伦敦金现(SPTAUUSDOZ) ② | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4046.06 ta 0.00 | | | 昨结 4017.84 持仓 0 | | | | | 28.22 | 0.70% | 宣 0 | 昨收 4017.84 日增 0.00 | | | | | 分时 | 五目 | 日K | 月K | | 更多 ◎ | | | 4059.640 | | | | 1.04% | 播口 卖1 4046.502 | 0 | | | | | | | 买1 4046.061 | 0 | | | | | | | 09:06 4046.27 | | | 4017.845 | | | | 0.00% | 09:06 4046.26 | 0 | | | | | | | 09:06 ...
金价暴涨背后的真相,不只是美国在搞事情,而是这3股力量正在改写历史
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-12 22:12
美国政府的"停摆"危机为这场黄金暴涨添了一把火。 由于美国联邦政府持续"停摆",关键经济数据发布延迟,市场对经济前景的判断缺乏清晰指引。 投资 者纷纷涌入黄金市场寻求避险,推动金价节节攀升。 特朗普重返白宫后的一系列政策加剧了全球市场的不确定性。 4月份,他对多国重新挥起"关税大棒",对所有进口的钢铁和铝征收25%关税。 这一政策引发 全球贸易紧张局势升级,欧盟委员会宣称将"强硬回击",加拿大也迅速实施反制措施。 北京投资者胡女士看着手机上的金价图表,忍不住感叹:"年初国际金价还在3200左右的时候,我开始买银行积存金,没想到现在金价已经突破4000了! "短短十个月时间,她的黄金投资获得了超过50%的收益,这种涨幅在传统投资品中几乎难以想象。 纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格历史性突破每盎司4000美元大关,最高触及4081美元。 同一天,伦敦现货黄金价格也站上这一里程碑关口,盘中最高触及 4049.64美元/盎司。 截至10月10日,COMEX黄金价格仍在3981美元高位震荡。 回顾2025年的黄金走势,这场上涨来得既猛烈又迅速。 现货黄金价格从1月1日的每盎司2623.68美元,飙升至10月7日的3984.5 ...
聪明人已悄悄将50%存款转移至这四样,原因很现实
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-10 08:17
聪明人已悄悄将50%存款转移至这四样,原因很现实 周末和朋友喝奶茶时,她翻着手机银行余额叹气:"这两万块活期存了大半年,利息才几块钱,感觉钱放着就是'躺平贬值'。"我笑着说我妈更有意思,前阵 子拉着我算账,说把家里一半存款取出来,分了好几份存,还买了点"跟国家走"的产品,现在每个月利息比以前多好几百。 其实不止我妈,身边不少人最近都在调整存款方式——不再把钱全塞在银行活期里,反而拿出50%左右,分散放到几样东西里。你可能会疑惑:这不是瞎折 腾吗?万一有风险怎么办?但仔细了解就会发现,他们选的这四样,都有官方背书或明确规则,既不是高风险的"投机",也不是没谱的"偏方",背后的原因 特别现实:无非是想让钱"不贬值",还能有点稳定收益,哪怕不多,总比活期"躺平"强。 1. 储蓄国债:财政部盖章的"保本王",稳到不用慌 第一个要提的,就是很多长辈爱抢的"储蓄国债"——这东西是财政部发行的,相当于"国家向你借钱",安全性拉满,根本不用担心理财暴雷那套,而且利息 比银行活期高不少。 就说2024年,财政部一共发行了12期储蓄国债,其中3年期利率2.65%,5年期2.75%,虽然不算特别高,但胜在"保本保息",而且可以提前 ...
美联储放大招!鹰派官员集体喊话:通胀没凉透,降息别太急
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-10 03:06
Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate a shift away from expectations of interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to control inflation rather than stimulate the economy, which could lead to a re-evaluation of investment strategies in gold and Bitcoin [1][3][26]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Cleveland Fed President Mester warns against loosening policies too quickly, stating that current inflation remains above the 2% target, and hasty rate cuts could undermine previous inflation control efforts [5]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic dismisses the need for rate cuts this year, predicting core inflation to rise to 3.1% by year-end and unemployment to reach 4.5% [5]. - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson acknowledges the dilemma of rising inflation risks while recognizing employment risks, suggesting a cautious approach to policy adjustments [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's hawkish comments, gold prices fell sharply, with New York futures dropping from $4,012 to $3,926, marking the largest single-day decline in two weeks [11]. - Bitcoin also experienced a significant drop, falling from $116,000 to $112,800, as institutional buying paused amid reduced expectations for rate cuts [13]. - The S&P 500 index declined by 1.1%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 4.3%, indicating a shift of funds from riskier assets to safer investments [15]. Group 3: Adjusted Market Predictions - Institutions have revised their rate cut expectations, with Deutsche Bank's previous forecast of three cuts in Q4 being overturned [16]. - Invesco has lowered its forecast to two cuts by year-end, while ICBC International warns that excessive easing could damage policy credibility, suggesting a gradual rate cut approach [18]. - This shift implies a significant reduction in the previously anticipated "easy money" environment that supported gold and Bitcoin prices [19]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Adjustments - The Fed's stance suggests a transition from betting on rate cuts to closely monitoring economic data [21]. - Investors are advised to focus on key indicators such as the upcoming Fed meeting on October 28 and weekly jobless claims to gauge employment pressures [23]. - A recommended asset allocation includes maintaining 10% in gold (primarily physical) and reducing Bitcoin exposure to 3% of discretionary funds, while avoiding leveraged contracts [23]. Group 5: Long-term Value Perspective - Despite the Fed's cautious approach, the fundamental logic for gold and Bitcoin remains intact, as long as M2 money supply continues to grow and currency devaluation persists [26]. - The previous "rapid growth model" for assets is expected to shift to a "volatile upward trend," emphasizing the importance of long-term holding strategies over short-term speculation [30].