黄金市场正迎来一个罕见的平静时刻。 截至2月10日，国内黄金回收价连续十天稳守1125元/克，国际伦敦金也在 5000美元关口上方反复磨底。 这种僵持背后，是主力资金在春节前的谨慎观望，也是多空双方在关键数据前的暂 时平衡。 2月11日即将公布的美国1月CPI数据，可能成为打破平静的导火索。 历史数据显示，类似横盘后出现单 日波动超3%行情的概率高达76.9%，市场仿佛一张拉满的弓。 不同渠道的价差折射出截然不同的逻辑。 银行金条报价在1136-1146元/克波动，而浦发银行一度标出1229元/克的 高价。 这种分化显示部分机构已开始为潜在波动做准备。 实物市场则呈现冰火两重天。 水贝市场金条批发价坚挺在1261元/克，但回收商报价已骤降至1070元/克。 有店员 透露，除非是婚庆刚需客户，普通消费者普遍转向观望，而以旧换新业务量却增长20%。 品牌金店的玻璃柜台里，足金饰品标签定格在1556-1560元/克，而仅一街之隔的回收点，报价牌上的数字却停留 在1125元。 这430元的价差，映射出当前黄金市场的割裂现实：零售端靠婚庆、礼品等刚需支撑，投资端则紧盯 美元指数和美联储动向。 价格梯度呈现清晰的层次。 ...

Core Insights - Since 2026, there has been a significant increase in public fund self-purchases, with a total net subscription amounting to 474 million yuan as of February 4, 2026, of which 378 million yuan is in equity funds, accounting for nearly 80% of the total [1] Fund Type Summary - Mixed funds are the primary focus of public fund self-purchases, with a net subscription of 258 million yuan, representing 54.43% of the total self-purchase amount, making it the only fund type exceeding 50% [2] - Following mixed funds, stock funds have a net subscription of 120 million yuan, accounting for 25.32%. Together, mixed and stock funds represent 79.75% of total net subscriptions, indicating a strong preference for equity assets [3] - Bond funds also play a significant role in public fund self-purchases, with a net subscription of 58 million yuan, representing 12.24%. Additionally, FOF funds have a net subscription of 30 million yuan (6.33%), while QDII funds have the smallest self-purchase scale at 8 million yuan (1.69%) [3] Subtype Analysis - Within mixed funds, the only sub-type for net subscriptions is the equity-mixed fund, which has a net subscription of 258 million yuan, consistent with the mixed fund data [3] - Stock fund self-purchases show a preference for passive investment, with passive index funds receiving the highest net subscription of 80 million yuan (16.88%), while ordinary and enhanced index funds each have a net subscription of 20 million yuan (4.22%) [4] - The self-purchase scale of bond funds shows a decreasing trend, with mixed bond funds being more favored. The net subscriptions for mixed bond funds are 28 million yuan (5.91%) and 20 million yuan (4.22%) for secondary types, while long-term pure bond funds have the smallest subscription at 10 million yuan (2.11%) [4] Market Implications - The increase in public fund self-purchases is attributed to three main factors: regulatory policy guidance encouraging self-purchases, the long-term investment value of the equity market, and the need for public funds to stabilize product scale and enhance research capabilities [4] - This trend signals optimism regarding the long-term investment value of the A-share market and reflects a shift in the public fund industry from scale expansion to quality improvement and long-term performance competition [5]

● 本报记者 万宇 *ST松发预计2025年实现净利润24亿元-27亿元，扭亏为盈。2025年四季度，多家基金公司旗下产品增持 *ST松发或新进机构投资者名单。其中，谢书英管理的兴全合瑞在2025年四季度增持*ST松发，华夏基 金、工银瑞信基金等公司旗下产品新进该股机构投资者名单。不过，也有基金公司减持*ST松发，如博 时基金旗下产品在2025年四季度合计减持该股738.71万股。 通化东宝预计2025年实现净利润12.42亿元，也实现扭亏为盈。2025年四季度，7家基金公司旗下产品新 进通化东宝机构投资者名单。 宏和科技预计2025年实现净利润1.93亿元-2.26亿元，同比增长745%-889%。2025年四季度，6家基金公 司旗下产品新进宏和科技机构投资者名单。 佰维存储预计2025年实现净利润8.5亿元-10亿元，同比增长427.19%-520.22%。截至2025年底，共有40 家基金公司旗下产品持有佰维存储，多只产品在2025年四季度增持佰维存储。其中，兴证全球基金、永 赢基金、华商基金旗下产品当季增持佰维存储均超100万股，广发基金、汇添富基金旗下产品在2025年 四季度新进佰维存储的机构投资者 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents macro - economic data, commodity investment information, financial news, and stock market trends. It shows that the macro - economy has certain fluctuations, the commodity market has policy - induced changes and price movements, and the financial and stock markets are also affected by multiple factors such as policies, market supply and demand, and international situations. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q4 2025 grew 4.5% year - on - year, lower than 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1] - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, up from 49.0% in the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, down from 50.1% in the previous month [1] - In December 2025, social financing scale was 22,075 billion yuan, lower than 35,299 billion yuan in the previous month and 28,537 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The "14th" central No. 1 document on "Three Rural Issues" was released, aiming at rural revitalization [2] - Multiple exchanges adjusted margin ratios and price limit ranges of various commodity futures contracts [2][3] - On February 3, 2026, 38 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis and 30 had negative basis [3] - CME's average daily contract trading volume in January increased 15% year - on - year to a record 29.6 million contracts [3] 3.2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 6.83% and COMEX silver up 10.27% [5] - Global alumina production in 2025 reached 144.98 million tons, up 5.1% from 2024 [6] - Chile's copper production is expected to grow 3.7% in 2026 and 6.4% in 2027, with the average price in 2026 expected to be $4.95 per pound [7] 3.2.3 Coal, Coking, Steel and Minerals - Indonesian miners suspended thermal coal spot exports after the government proposed to cut coal production [9] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On February 3, 2026, domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices were raised by 205 yuan/ton and 195 yuan/ton respectively [10] - Four public fund companies warned of significant premiums in the secondary market trading prices of their crude oil and petroleum - themed funds [10] - The U.S. plans to issue licenses for companies to exploit Venezuelan oil [10] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Ukraine's white sugar production in 2025 dropped to 1.72 million tons, a 4% decrease [11] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On February 3, the central bank conducted 105.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 296.5 billion yuan [13] - On February 4, the central bank will conduct 800 billion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan [13] - In January 2026, the central bank's MLF had a net injection of 700 billion yuan, and PSL had a net injection of 174.4 billion yuan [14] 3.3.2 Important News - The 2026 central No. 1 document focused on rural revitalization, including financial support policies [15] - Rumors about VAT rate adjustments in the game and financial industries were untrue [15][16] - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the development of strategic emerging industries [16] - The Shanghai headquarters of the central bank called for promoting the reasonable growth and balanced distribution of credit [16] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market was mainly volatile, with treasury bond futures mostly rising [22] - The exchange bond market had mixed performances, with some bonds rising and some falling [22][23] - The中证 Convertible Bond Index rose 2.63% [23] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 151 points, and the RMB central parity rate was raised 87 points [27] - The US dollar index fell 0.22%, and most non - US currencies rose [27] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed - income said to focus on the expansion of free - trade offshore bonds and the possibility of using dim - sum bonds to take over free - trade bonds [28] - CITIC Securities expected that dividend insurance products and incremental funds from bank deposits would support 2026 premium income [28] 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On February 4, 158 bonds will be listed, 163 bonds will be issued, 127 bonds will make payments, and 55 bonds will pay principal and interest [30] 3.4 Stock Market News - On Tuesday, the A - share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.29% [31] - The Hong Kong stock market's main indexes recovered, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.22% [31] - The CSRC chairman met with the head of the UK's FCA to discuss regulatory cooperation [31] - In January, the number of new A - share accounts reached 4.9158 million, a 15 - month high [31]

这两天，国际贵金属市场迎来"惊魂时刻"，金价接连失守关键整数关口，日前单日跌幅超11%；白 银更是以31.37%的断崖式下跌，创下近46年来最差单日表现。 剧烈波动之下，工商银行、建设银行等多家国有大行、国内外交易所纷纷紧急发布风险提示，调整 业务规则。金价涨跌还将辐射哪些领域？刚入手金饰的消费者，能否申请退货减少损失？ 此次暴跌并非孤立事件，同期工业金属也受到波及，铜、锡、铝等品种均出现不同程度下跌，全球 大宗商品市场陷入震荡。事实上，此轮跳水在机构端早有端倪。 上周，易方达黄金主题上市型开放式基金（LOF）公告暂停A类份额的申购及定期定额投资业务。 白银上市型开放式基金（LOF）同样"闭门谢客"，国投白银上市型开放式基金1月28日起暂停申购及定 期定额投资业务。国泰君安期货贵金属高级研究员刘雨萱指出，如果继续敞开申购，新增资金只能以极 高溢价买入，一旦溢价回落，原有份额将被摊薄，之前的持有人利益将受损。 美国芝商所集团同样于当地时间1月30日发布公告，宣布上调多个贵金属期货保证金比例。此外， 铂金和钯金期货的保证金比例也有所上调。此次保证金调整于2月2日收盘后正式生效。芝商所集团表 示，此举基于对市场波动 ...

多家银行、交易所发布贵金属投资风险提示。未来市场走势如何，刚买的金饰能退吗? 这两天，国际贵金属市场迎来"惊魂时刻"，金价接连失守关键整数关口，日前单日跌幅超11% ；白银更 是以 31.37%的断崖式下跌，创下近46年来最差单日表现。 剧烈波动之下，工商银行、建设银行等多家国有大行、国内外交易所纷纷紧急发布风险提示，调整业务 规则。金价涨跌还将辐射哪些领域？刚入手金饰的消费者，能否申请退货减少损失？ 此次暴跌并非孤立事件，同期工业金属也受到波及，铜、锡、铝等品种均出现不同程度下跌，全球大宗 商品市场陷入震荡。事实上，此轮跳水在机构端早有端倪。 上周，易方达黄金主题上市型开放式基金（LOF）公告暂停A类份额的申购及定期定额投资业务。白银 上市型开放式基金（LOF）同样"闭门谢客"，国投白银上市型开放式基金1月28日起暂停申购及定期定 额投资业务。国泰君安期货贵金属高级研究员刘雨萱指出，如果继续敞开申购，新增资金只能以极高溢 价买入，一旦溢价回落，原有份额将被摊薄，之前的持有人利益将受损。 此后多家国有大行密集发声，发布贵金属业务风险提示，同时调整相关业务规则，防范市场波动带来的 风险。全球主要期货交易所持续加 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that China's broad interest rates have entered a historically low range, leading to significant changes in the financing structure, with a continuous decline in the proportion of indirect financing [3][44] - The trend of "financial disintermediation" is occurring, where savings are moving from banks to non-bank financial institutions, resulting in a shrinking of bank credit and an increase in non-bank deposits [3][48] - The report suggests that the current low interest rate environment is conducive to the development of the capital market, providing ample liquidity and valuation support [3][44] Group 2 - The report draws parallels with international experiences, particularly from the US and Japan, where low interest rates led to significant shifts in banking operations, asset allocation by residents, and market performance [9][27] - In the US, the low interest rate period saw a notable increase in the proportion of stocks and funds in household financial assets, rising from 38.8% in 2011 to 53.9% in 2021 [19] - Japan experienced a similar trend, with the proportion of stocks and funds in household assets increasing by nearly 10 percentage points during its low interest rate period [32] Group 3 - The report indicates that the Chinese stock market is entering a "slow bull" phase, supported by the ongoing financial disintermediation and the expected recovery in industry demand [44][48] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-growth sectors that benefit from both domestic and external demand, such as technology and advanced manufacturing [3][44] - The report also notes that certain quality dividend assets still hold investment value despite the changing market dynamics [3][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the wealth - management scale continued to decline, with a monthly decrease of 1.142 billion yuan, contrary to market expectations of a rebound. Looking ahead, before the Spring Festival in February, the scale may show a moderate growth trend [1][9]. - The inter - bank leverage ratio continued to decline, while the exchange leverage ratio increased, and non - bank institutions increased leverage [2][35]. - Interest - rate and credit - type medium - and long - term bond funds compressed their durations, while medium - short - term and short - term bond funds slightly increased their durations [3][44]. - The supply scale of government bonds increased significantly in early February, with a planned issuance of 906.7 billion yuan in the first week of February [50]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1 - Month Wealth - Management Scale Decline 3.1.1 Weekly Scale - From January 19 - 23, the wealth - management scale continued to rise, with a week - on - week increase of 7.41 billion yuan to 33.35 trillion yuan, higher than the historical same - period level. From January 26 - 30, due to the drive of funds returning to the balance sheet, the scale decreased by 178.8 billion yuan to 33.18 trillion yuan, and the decline was more than seasonal [8]. 3.1.2 Wealth - Management Risks - Product net values continued to rise, and the proportion of negative yields remained low. The proportion of all products with negative yields in the interval remained low at 0.96%. The wealth - management break - even level slightly increased, with the break - even rate of all products rising by 0.03 pct to 0.2%. The proportion of products with unmet performance targets continued to decline, with the non - performance rate of all wealth - management products dropping by 0.3 pct to 23.9% [15][24]. 3.2 Leverage Ratio: Inter - bank Continued to Decline - From January 26 - 30, affected by cross - month demand, capital prices seasonally increased. The average weekly trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, and the average overnight proportion also decreased. The inter - bank leverage ratio continued to decline, the exchange leverage ratio increased, and non - bank institutions increased leverage [32][35]. 3.3 Interest - Rate and Credit - Type Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds Compressed Durations - From January 26 - 30, due to insufficient incremental information at the end of the month, institutions were still cautious in their operations. The average weekly durations of interest - rate and credit - type medium - and long - term bond funds decreased. The durations of medium - short - term and short - term bond funds slightly increased [42][44]. 3.4 Government Bond Supply Scale Increased Significantly in Early February - In the first week of February (February 2 - 6), the planned issuance of government bonds was 906.7 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous week. The estimated net payment scale of government bonds was about 460.4 billion yuan, still higher than the weekly median payment level since 2025. In terms of different types of bonds, the net payment scale of treasury bonds decreased, while that of local bonds increased [50][53].

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20260201 债市窄幅震荡中等待新催化（2026 年第 5 期） 2026 年 02 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐沐阳 执业证书：S0600523060003 xumy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐津晶 执业证书：S0600523110001 xujj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20260126- 20260130）》 2026-01-31 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20260126-20260130）》 2026-01-31 东吴证券研究所 1 / 38 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 如何看待 2026 年 1 月的 PMI 数据，以及央行针对非银机构的流动性安 排？本周（2026.1.26-2026.1.30），10 年期国债活跃 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the strategy differentiation of major financial institutions will reshape the bond market landscape. The trading attributes of banks will be enhanced, and the pressure to exchange floating profits will be reduced. If the regulatory constraints on interest - rate sensitivity indicators are relaxed, it may provide long - term bond allocation space for banks. Securities firms' proprietary trading will continue the aggressive strategy of "bond foundation, equity enhancement" with regulatory support. Wealth management will fully enter the "true net - value" era, with product closure and defensive allocation becoming the mainstream. Public funds are expected to repair the liability side through the new fee regulations, the duration strategy may be reopened, and the use of hedging tools will increase. Insurance institutions will focus on long - term allocation, increasing their allocation of long - duration interest - rate bonds and high - dividend assets. The overall trading attributes of the market will be enhanced, and the allocation strategies will gradually diversify [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bank - Overall, it shows the characteristics of "configuration adjustment and trading enhancement". In 2026, if China follows the Basel regulatory new rules, large banks are expected to release about 1 trillion yuan of government bond allocation space, and the ability to undertake long - term bonds will be marginally improved. The trading attributes of state - owned large banks are gradually strengthening, and they will continue to maintain high trading activity in 2026. If the cost - performance of inter - bank certificates of deposit rises in the future, the bond - allocation strength of rural commercial banks may moderately recover [15]. - Constrained by the deepening of the asset - liability term mismatch, the ability of large banks to undertake long - term bonds is limited. However, if China implements the adjusted international regulatory standards, it is estimated that about 1 trillion yuan of bond - allocation capacity will be added for large banks. In 2025, the AC account proportion of various banks decreased, and the OCI account proportion increased. In 2026, although the pressure on banks to make up for the performance gap by realizing floating profits will weaken, there are still incentives to realize floating profits [16][21]. - State - owned large banks' trading volume of 7 - 10Y treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds in 2025 increased, and the proportion of trading volume also increased compared with the previous two years, showing an active trading strategy. It is expected that this high trading activity will continue in 2026 [29]. - Since the beginning of 2025, affected by the new capital regulations and the decline in the cost - performance of certificates of deposit, the bond - allocation behavior of rural commercial banks in the secondary market has significantly shrunk. If the cost - performance of certificates of deposit recovers and the capital occupation pressure eases in 2026, the bond - allocation strength may moderately recover [32][33]. 3.2 Wealth Management - In 2026, wealth management will fully enter the "true net - value" operation mechanism. In terms of products, "fixed - income +", closed - end and minimum holding - period products will be used to deal with net - value fluctuations; in terms of operation, the management requirements for duration, leverage and liquidity will continue to increase, and the asset allocation will focus on stability and term matching [40]. - In 2026, in the context of low - interest rates and the full - completion of valuation rectification, the scale and number of "fixed - income +" products are expected to continue to grow. The proportion of "fixed - income +" products in fixed - income wealth management is expected to rise steadily [41][42]. - After the full - completion of valuation rectification, the net - value stability constraint of wealth management products has been significantly enhanced. The closed - end and quasi - closed - end operation characteristics of new products are expected to be further strengthened in 2026 [44]. - In 2026, wealth management institutions will pay more attention to the liquidity safety cushion. The proportion of high - liquidity assets in wealth management asset allocation is likely to remain relatively high [50]. - In 2026, wealth management drawdown is expected to be controllable and will change around interest - rate fluctuations. Wealth management institutions may deepen the application of multi - asset allocation strategies to reduce the impact of bond - market fluctuations on net value [52]. - In 2026, the allocation value of amortized - cost bond funds will be further highlighted. The re - investment demand of the expired funds of amortized - cost bond funds is expected to support the short - end credit - bond market [58]. 3.3 Public Funds - In 2026, with the implementation of the new fee regulations for public funds, the bond - market sentiment is expected to be moderately repaired, and the stability improvement of the liability side may create conditions for reopening the duration strategy. The development of innovative tools such as stock - bond constant ETFs is expected to introduce incremental funds, and the number of funds using the negative - duration strategy may increase. The supervision of customized funds and dividend mechanisms will continue to be optimized [65]. - In 2025, the leverage ratio of bond funds decreased, and the duration fluctuated greatly. In 2026, the liability - side and asset - side durations of public funds are expected to increase [66]. - The implementation of the new fee regulations for public funds in 2026 is expected to promote the moderate repair of the bond market and the internal optimization of the bond - fund pattern [71]. - In 2026, the pure - bond fund market may face product - pattern adjustment. The smooth development of stock - bond constant ETFs may bring incremental funds to the equity and interest - rate bond markets and weaken the traditional "stock - bond seesaw" effect in the short term [76]. - In 2026, the number of funds using the negative - duration strategy may increase to manage risk exposure in the context of low - interest rates and high volatility in the bond market [79]. - In 2026, there is still room for optimization of customized funds and dividend mechanisms in the public - fund industry. The regulatory authorities may put forward rectification requirements for customized funds with a high institutional - holding ratio and optimize the dividend mechanism [82][84]. 3.4 Insurance - In 2026, the investment strategy of insurance institutions is expected to shift from "trading" to "allocation - based". The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds such as treasury bonds has declined, and the asset - allocation structure will be further optimized [87]. - In 2025, affected by the regulatory reduction of the liability - side pricing ceiling, new - policy attractiveness weakened, and premium growth slowed down. Insurance funds preferred a Carry - based strategy, with a decline in the turnover rate of interest - rate bonds and a stable or rising allocation weight [88]. - As of Q3 2025, bonds still accounted for more than 50% of insurance - fund asset allocation, but the growth rate of equity investment was relatively fast. In 2026, if the new fee regulations weaken the cost - performance of bond funds, some insurance funds may shift to equity assets, but it will not significantly affect their bond - market allocation [94]. - In 2026, under the dual - system drive of the new asset - liability regulations and new accounting standards, insurance institutions will significantly increase their allocation of long - duration interest - rate bonds and high - grade general credit bonds and reduce the allocation of bank Tier 2 capital bonds. The proportion of participating insurance is expected to continue to increase, and the equity - asset allocation will focus on high - dividend and low - valuation stocks [100][101]. 3.5 Securities Firms' Proprietary Trading - In 2026, the bond - allocation of securities firms' proprietary trading will continue to focus on interest - rate bonds and high - grade credit bonds, and the equity - allocation is expected to achieve "both quantity and quality improvement" under regulatory encouragement, with a preference for standardized products such as broad - based index constituent stocks and liquid ETFs [103]. - From March 2021 to November 2025, the bond - holding scale of securities firms' proprietary trading increased, and the proportion of interest - rate bonds rose. In 2026, the bond - holding scale is expected to continue to grow, and the credit - bond allocation will continue to concentrate on high - grade bonds [104][105]. - In 2025, the floating - profit scale of securities firms' proprietary trading turned from negative to positive, and they showed advantages in stop - profit operation and holding - cost control [109]. - Regulatory support for securities firms' proprietary trading to increase equity - asset allocation has increased. In 2026, securities firms may further increase their equity - asset allocation, with a possible preference for standardized products [114].