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交银国际每日晨报-20251124
BOCOM International· 2025-11-24 02:20
Group 1: Nvidia (NVDA US) - The company's performance and guidance exceeded expectations, with FY3Q26 revenue of $57 billion and EPS of $1.30, both surpassing market expectations [1] - Management's guidance for FY4Q26 revenue is $65 billion (+/-2%), significantly above market expectations, with a gross margin forecast of 75% [2] - The short-term guidance is positive, but investors remain focused on the sustainability of demand in CY26 and beyond, particularly in the AI sector [2] Group 2: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) - The company's 3Q25 performance showed a slight recovery, with revenue of 6.62 billion HKD, although it was slightly below expectations [3] - The oncology segment continues to be affected by centralized procurement, but the decline has narrowed [3] - Management expects a return to positive growth in 2026, with significant R&D investments planned [3][4] Group 3: Link REIT (823 HK) - The company reported a 1.8% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first half of FY25/26, primarily due to retail market fluctuations [7] - The rental adjustment rate for renewals in Hong Kong and mainland China was negative, impacting property income [8] - Despite challenges, the company maintains a buy rating, believing that recent stock price corrections present buying opportunities [8]
交银国际:下调领展房产基金目标价至45.7港元 维持“买入”评级
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 02:20
Group 1 - The target price for Link REIT (00823) has been lowered by 8.2% from HKD 49.8 to HKD 45.7, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The short-term stock price correction has resulted in a dividend yield of approximately 7%, presenting a long-term accumulation opportunity [1] - Management anticipates continued challenges in rental adjustments for renewals in mainland China and Hong Kong, which may pressure distributions for FY2026 [1] Group 2 - Link REIT's mid-term performance (as of September 30) was slightly below expectations, with revenue decreasing by 1.8% year-on-year to HKD 7.023 billion [1] - Net property income fell by 3.4% year-on-year to HKD 5.178 billion, primarily due to retail market fluctuations and negative rental adjustment rates [1] - The net debt ratio as of September 2025 is 22.5%, a slight increase from 21.5% as of March 31, 2025, but still at a low level [2]
交银国际:下调领展房产基金(00823)目标价至45.7港元 维持“买入”评级
智通财经网· 2025-11-24 02:19
Group 1 - The target price for Link REIT (00823) has been lowered by 8.2% from HKD 49.8 to HKD 45.7, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The short-term stock price correction has resulted in a dividend yield of approximately 7%, presenting a long-term accumulation opportunity [1] - Management anticipates continued challenges in rental adjustments for renewals in mainland China and Hong Kong, which may pressure distributions for the fiscal year 2026 [1] Group 2 - The mid-term performance of Link REIT (as of September 30) was slightly below expectations, with revenue decreasing by 1.8% year-on-year to HKD 7.023 billion [1] - Net property income fell by 3.4% year-on-year to HKD 5.178 billion, primarily due to retail market fluctuations and negative rental adjustment rates [1] - The net debt ratio as of September 2025 is 22.5%, a slight increase from 21.5% as of March 31, 2025, but still at a low level [2]
REITs周报:领展REIT租金承压,C-REITs二级走势疲软-20251124
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-11-24 01:56
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the REITs industry Core Insights - The report highlights that Link REIT's rental income is under pressure, with a negative rental adjustment rate expected in the short term for properties in Hong Kong and mainland China, leading to a slight deterioration in the operating environment before a potential rebound [1][11][13] - The C-REITs secondary market is experiencing a general pullback, with a total market capitalization of approximately 219.85 billion yuan and an average market cap of about 2.9 billion yuan per REIT [3][16] - The report suggests three main investment strategies for REITs: focusing on quality undervalued projects, considering the resilience of weak-cycle assets, and paying attention to original rights holders with ample asset reserves [5] Summary by Sections REITs Events - On November 20, Link REIT reported a total revenue of 7.02 billion HKD and a net property income of 5.18 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% and 3.4% respectively [1][11] - The rental adjustment rate for retail properties in Hong Kong was reported at -6.4%, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [12] REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index fell by 0.89% this week, with the closing index at 810.2 points [14] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs total return index has increased by 7.57% [2][14] REITs Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for C-REITs showed a decline, with 9 REITs rising and 68 falling, resulting in an average weekly decline of 1.2% [3][16] - The logistics and industrial park REITs experienced a smaller decline compared to data center and affordable housing REITs, which saw larger pullbacks [16] REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs shows significant differentiation, with top performers including Huaxia China Communications REIT at 9.7% and Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT at 9.2% [5] - The price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio for various REITs ranges from 0.7 to 1.8, indicating varying levels of valuation [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality, undervalued projects, particularly in high-energy cities, and considering the resilience of weak-cycle assets [5] - It also emphasizes the importance of monitoring original rights holders with strong asset reserves for future growth opportunities [5]
REITs“溢价率”高危系数探讨-二级市场的震荡空间与未来变化
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-23 13:37
Core Insights - The REITs market is experiencing high premium rates, with an average premium rate of approximately 40.66% as of November 21, 2025, indicating a potential disconnect between asset value and market price [2][4] - The market is facing challenges due to declining trading volumes and liquidity issues, which may lead to significant volatility and instability in the REITs sector by 2026 [1][4] - The performance of REITs in the secondary market is under scrutiny as investors assess the impact of earnings completion on market prices, particularly for those with high premium rates [1][4] Market Dynamics - The "嘉实物美消费REIT" has the highest premium rate at 77.26%, suggesting a significant deviation between market capitalization growth and asset value [4] - Many REITs lack comprehensive annual comparable data, and some have shown negative growth, raising concerns about the sustainability of high premium rates [4][5] - The current REITs market resembles previous high points, but with more diversified institutional investors and increased large transactions [5] Premium Rate Analysis - Different sectors show varying premium rate potentials: industrial parks have an average premium space of 18.23%, logistics warehouses 33.19%, affordable housing 26.03%, and consumer sectors 21.76% [5] - The premium rates are compared against historical averages and issuance predictions, indicating potential for further adjustments in the market [5] Investor Behavior - As the year-end approaches, investor profit-taking is expected to increase, leading to a potential passive rush to exit positions [6] - The market may experience a high-level stagnation due to a combination of improved distribution rates, good earnings completion, and institutional self-rescue efforts [6]
晨星: 领展房产基金中港零售租合表现弱 合理估值每单位45港元 全年股息率料6.6%
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 06:17
晨星发布研报称,经调整假设后,现维持对领展房产基金(00823)每单位45港元公允价值合值。单位现 值被低估,预测2026财年每单位分派额为2.57港元,反映相等于6.6%的吸引收益率。 另外,中国内地零售物业组合租金续绩为负16.4%,因领展透过调降租金优先确保出租率。领展正重整 北京资产,上海零售销售已趋稳定。领展多元化策略成效显著,其澳洲及新加坡零售资产表现强劲(均 呈现双位数正租金回归),有效抵销大中华区的疲弱表现。 截至今年9月底止半年度,领展净物业收入同比跌3.4%,主因香港及中国内地零售物业组合持续面临租 金负增长。中期每单位分派跌5.9%至1.27港元。该行认为,上述弱势表现符合预期。晨星预估零售业逆 风将持续透过负面租金续租压缩2026财年度租金收入,预期香港零售物业组合租金收入将于2027财年开 始趋稳。 ...
晨星: 领展房产基金(00823)中港零售租合表现弱 合理估值每单位45港元 全年股息率料6.6%
智通财经网· 2025-11-21 06:15
智通财经APP获悉,晨星发布研报称,经调整假设后,现维持对领展房产基金(00823)每单位45港元公允 价值合值。单位现值被低估,预测2026财年每单位分派额为2.57港元,反映相等于6.6%的吸引收益率。 截至今年9月底止半年度,领展净物业收入同比跌3.4%,主因香港及中国内地零售物业组合持续面临租 金负增长。中期每单位分派跌5.9%至1.27港元。该行认为,上述弱势表现符合预期。晨星预估零售业逆 风将持续透过负面租金续租压缩2026财年度租金收入,预期香港零售物业组合租金收入将于2027财年开 始趋稳。 另外,中国内地零售物业组合租金续绩为负16.4%,因领展透过调降租金优先确保出租率。领展正重整 北京资产,上海零售销售已趋稳定。领展多元化策略成效显著,其澳洲及新加坡零售资产表现强劲(均 呈现双位数正租金回归),有效抵销大中华区的疲弱表现。 ...
大行评级丨美银:下调领展目标价至43港元 重申“买入”评级
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-21 05:24
该行预计,领展减省人力成本应有助于公司稳定其每基金单位分派。到2027财年中期,公司应可调整其 业务组合,以更好地应对电商竞争。该行认为,公司当前的估值仍具吸引力,重申"买入"评级。 美银证券发表研报指,领展房产基金9月底止2026财年中期业绩逊于预期,将其2026至28财年的每基金 单位分派(DPU)预测下调2%至3%,目标价相应由45港元降至43港元。该行指,领展最大的负面因素是 内地零售租金收入急剧下降,但香港续租租金降6%则属预期之内,第二财季的租户销售按年跌幅扩大 则令市场失望。 ...
美银证券:降领展房产基金(00823)目标价至43港元 续予“买入”评级
智通财经网· 2025-11-21 03:35
智通财经APP获悉,美银证券发布研报称,领展房产基金(00823)9月底止2026财年中期业绩逊于预期, 将其2026至28财年的每基金单位分派(DPU)预测下调2%至3%,目标价相应由45港元降至43港元。该行 认为,公司当前的估值仍具吸引力,重申"买入"评级。 该行表示,领展最大的负面因素是内地零售租金收入急剧下降,但香港续租租金降6%则属预期之内, 不过,公司第二财季的租户销售同比跌幅扩大则令市场失望。该行预计,领展减省人力成本应有助于公 司稳定其每基金单位分派到2027财年中期,公司应可调整其业务组合,以更好地应对电商竞争。 ...
里昂:升领展房产基金目标价至51港元 维持“跑赢大市”评级
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 02:58
里昂发布研报称,领展房产基金(00823)2026财年上半年业绩逊预期。公司已采取应对措施,该行相信 增量负面影响将从2027财年起逐步消退。该行因香港及内地商场表现差于预期,下调领展2026财年、 2027财年及2028财年盈利预测分别4.5%、1.6%及0.3%。因美国国债收益率下降,将目标价由50.5港元上 调至51港元,维持跑赢大市评级。 里昂指,由于领展在其覆盖的香港地产股中拥有最高收益率,认为负面因素已基本反映在股价中,目前 已具备吸引力的组合,包括具备防御性的高收益率,以及潜在纳入互联互通。 ...