Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Xiaopeng Motors (9868 HK), with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 41.6% from the current price of HKD 95.10 [1][3][14]. Core Insights - The automotive gross margin exceeded expectations, and the report is optimistic about the upcoming product cycle in 2025. Although revenue was slightly below expectations, the automotive gross margin was 10.0%, surpassing market expectations of 9-9.5% due to scale effects and efficient cost control [2][8]. - The company is expected to narrow its net loss from RMB 10.376 billion in 2023 to RMB 5.790 billion in 2024, with a projected net loss of RMB 613 million in 2025 [2][16]. - Xiaopeng Motors has guided for Q1 2025 sales of 91,000 to 93,000 vehicles, with March sales expected to be between 31,000 and 33,000 vehicles, reflecting a slight month-on-month increase [2][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from RMB 30.676 billion in 2023 to RMB 86.172 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 110.9% [7][16]. - The company plans to launch new models, including the G6 and G9, which are expected to enhance sales and improve gross margins [8]. - The report anticipates that the strong product cycle and effective cost management will lead to a turnaround in profitability by Q4 2025 [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Xiaopeng Motors (9868 HK), with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 41.6% from the current price of HKD 95.10 [1][3][14]. Core Insights - The automotive gross margin exceeded expectations, and the report is optimistic about the upcoming product cycle in 2025. Although revenue was slightly below expectations, the automotive gross margin was 10.0%, surpassing market expectations of 9-9.5% due to scale effects and efficient cost control [2][8]. - Xiaopeng Motors is expected to deliver 91,000 to 93,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, with March sales projected to be between 31,000 and 33,000 units, reflecting a slight month-on-month increase [2][8]. - The company is focusing on a diversified product strategy rather than relying on a single bestseller, with new models like the G6 and G9 expected to improve sales and gross margins [8]. Financial Overview - For the fiscal year 2023, total revenue was RMB 30,676 million, with a year-on-year growth of 14.2%. The projected revenue for 2024 is RMB 40,866 million, representing a growth of 33.2% [7][16]. - The net loss for 2023 was RMB 10,376 million, which is expected to narrow to RMB 5,790 million in 2024 and further to RMB 613 million in 2025 [7][16]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in revenue to RMB 86,172 million by 2025, with a projected gross profit of RMB 11,812 million [7][16]. Market Performance - Xiaopeng Motors' stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 103.86%, with a 52-week high of HKD 97.45 and a low of HKD 26.05 [5][14]. - The report highlights that the stock price pullback presents a good buying opportunity, reinforcing the "Buy" rating based on strong sales growth and improved gross margins [8][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, XPeng Motors (9868 HK), with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 41.6% from the current closing price of HKD 95.10 [1][3][14]. Core Insights - The automotive gross margin exceeded expectations, and the report is optimistic about the upcoming product cycle in 2024. Although revenue was slightly below expectations, the automotive gross margin was 10.0%, surpassing market expectations of 9-9.5% due to economies of scale and effective cost control [2][8]. - XPeng Motors has guided for Q1 2025 sales of 91,000 to 93,000 vehicles, with March sales expected to be between 31,000 and 33,000 units, reflecting a slight month-over-month increase [2][8]. - The report highlights the anticipated launch of new models, including the G6 and G9, which are expected to improve average selling price (ASP) and gross margins in the second quarter of 2025 [2][8]. Financial Overview - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 30,676 million, with a year-on-year growth of 14.2%. The net loss for the same period was RMB 10,376 million [7][16]. - Projections for 2024 estimate revenues to rise to RMB 40,866 million, with a significant year-on-year growth of 33.2%, and a reduced net loss of RMB 5,790 million [7][16]. - The report forecasts a substantial increase in revenue to RMB 86,172 million by 2025, with expectations of turning profitable by 2026 [7][16]. Sales and Production Insights - The report indicates that XPeng Motors sold 60,158 vehicles in Q4 2023, with a total of 141,601 vehicles sold for the entire fiscal year, marking a 34.2% increase year-on-year [9]. - The average selling price (ASP) for vehicles in Q4 2023 was RMB 163,000, reflecting a decrease of 15.2% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the high sales volume of the lower-priced M03 model [2][9]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on diversifying its product lineup rather than relying on a single bestseller, with plans to introduce both electric and range-extended models in the second half of 2024 [8]. - XPeng Motors is also advancing its smart driving technology, with plans to launch L3 autonomous driving capabilities in the second half of 2024 and L4 models in 2025 [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral with a target price of HKD 93.62, reflecting a potential downside of 17.3% from the current price of HKD 113.20 [1][7][8]. Core Insights - The company's fourth-quarter automotive gross margin fell below expectations at 19.7%, primarily due to a decrease in average selling price (ASP) and an increase in per-vehicle costs, including provisions for purchase commitments and promotional activities [2][8]. - Total revenue for the fourth quarter increased by 3.3% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit rose by 25.2% to RMB 3.5 billion, supported by RMB 400 million in interest income [2][8]. - The company faces significant challenges in sales growth, cost control, and market competitiveness, leading to uncertainties in revenue growth and gross margin for 2025 [2][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 123.85 billion in 2023, RMB 144.46 billion in 2024, and RMB 157.98 billion in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 173.5%, 16.6%, and 9.4% respectively [3][16]. - Net profit is expected to decline from RMB 11.70 billion in 2023 to RMB 8.03 billion in 2024, before slightly increasing to RMB 8.56 billion in 2025 [3][16]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to decrease from 22.2% in 2023 to 19.7% in 2025, indicating pressure on profitability [17]. Sales and Market Competition - The company anticipates first-quarter sales between 88,000 and 93,000 vehicles, with March sales estimated at 32,000 to 37,000 vehicles, reflecting the impact of recent price cuts [2][8]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying with new entrants in the extended-range vehicle segment, which may affect the company's market share and sales volume [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral with a target price of HKD 93.62, reflecting a potential downside of 17.3% from the current closing price of HKD 113.20 [1][7][8]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the automotive gross margin for the fourth quarter was below expectations, with a gross margin of 19.7%, which is lower than the market expectation of approximately 20%. This decline is attributed to a decrease in average selling price (ASP) and an increase in per-vehicle costs, including provisions for purchase commitment losses and promotional activities [2][8]. - The company has guided first-quarter sales to be between 88,000 and 93,000 units, with March sales estimated at 32,000 to 37,000 units, indicating that price reductions have effectively stimulated sales recovery. However, the ASP is expected to continue declining to around RMB 250,000 in the first quarter, which is below expectations [2][8]. Financial Overview - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 123.851 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 173.5%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach RMB 144.460 billion, reflecting a growth of 16.6% [3][16]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at RMB 11.704 billion, with a significant decline of 673.8% year-on-year. The forecast for 2024 shows a net profit of RMB 8.032 billion, a further decrease of 32.2% [3][16]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at RMB 5.95, dropping to RMB 4.03 in 2024, with a forecasted EPS of RMB 4.29 for 2025 [3][16]. Market Competition and Challenges - The report highlights that the competition in the automotive market is shifting from incremental to stock competition, with more competitors entering the range-extended vehicle segment in 2025. This includes the launch of new models from competitors that may impact the company's sales base [8]. - The report expresses concerns regarding the company's ability to maintain its gross margin, particularly with the introduction of new electric models expected to have lower margins, which could further pressure overall profitability [8].

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 汽车 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 12 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 97.45 | 港元 134.69↑ | +38.2% | | | 小鹏汽车 (9868 HK) | | | | | | 产品大年，受惠智驾普及，维持买入 个股评级 买入 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 97.45 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 26.05 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 150,811.67 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 42.08 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 108.90 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 51.63 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 陈庆 angus.chan@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 李柳晓, PhD, CFA joyce.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Xiaopeng Motors (9868 HK), with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 38.2% from the current price of HKD 97.45 [1][2][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the widespread adoption of intelligent driving technology, with a strong product lineup set to drive sales growth. The upcoming launch of the 2025 models G6 and G9 is anticipated to significantly enhance product capabilities and attract new orders [7]. - Xiaopeng Motors is projected to achieve a 133% year-on-year increase in sales in 2025, reaching 440,000 units, driven by a robust new vehicle cycle and competitive pricing strategies [7]. - The financial outlook has been revised upwards, with a 30.4% increase in the 2025 sales forecast, reflecting strong demand and improved profitability as new models are introduced [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 26,855 million in 2022 to RMB 85,431 million in 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 56.5% [6][11]. - Net profit is projected to improve from a loss of RMB 10,376 million in 2023 to a loss of RMB 630 million in 2025, with a return to profitability expected in 2026 with a net profit of RMB 1,431 million [6][11]. - The company’s gross margin is anticipated to increase from 11.5% in 2022 to 13.5% in 2025, reflecting improved operational efficiency and cost management [12].

交银国际研究 行业更新 2025 年 3 月 11 日 行业评级 领先 2 月乘用车销量同比增 26%，以旧换新政策+车企促销推动车市回暖 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (%) | | 比亚迪股份 | 1211 HK | 买入 | 379.22 | 350.20 | 23.261 | 28.629 | 14.1 | 11.4 | 3.11 | 2.42 | 0.1 | | 理想汽车 | 2015 HK | 买入 | 120.34 | 113 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Geely Automobile (175 HK) with a target price of 18.50 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 3.4% from the closing price of 17.90 HKD as of March 3, 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - Geely Automobile's AI Smart Technology Conference marked the beginning of the "AI+Car" era, transitioning from "Car+AI" to "AI+Car," emphasizing AI as the core of automotive transformation [2]. - The company introduced the "Qianli Haohan" intelligent driving system, which includes five versions (H1 to H9) that cover functionalities from basic assistance to full-scenario L3 autonomous driving, with plans for mass production in the current year [2]. - Geely aims to democratize high-level intelligent driving capabilities across all price segments, promoting the concept of "safety equality" [2]. Summary by Sections AI and Technology Strategy - The report highlights three technological trends presented by Qianli Technology's chairman: superhuman-machine interaction, integration of autonomous driving and execution, and the elevation of connected vehicle models [2]. - Geely's collaboration with partners like Jiyue Xingchen aims to enhance AI applications and reduce barriers for developers through an open-source strategy [2]. Product Launches - The 2025 Geely Galaxy E8 was officially launched with a promotional price range of 149,800 to 198,800 RMB, which is 16,000 RMB lower than the previous model [2]. - The new model features advanced technology, including a 45-inch 8K display and a Qualcomm Snapdragon 8295 chip, along with an upgraded intelligent driving perception system [2]. Competitive Positioning - Geely's recent announcements are seen as a response to competitors like BYD and Changan, emphasizing its systematic capabilities and platform advantages while minimizing reliance on external suppliers [2].