棉系周报：整体变化不大 棉价区间震荡 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠、王玺圳 期货从业证号：F3013727、F03118729 咨询从业证号：Z0014425、F3013727 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 221/221/221 208/218/234 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/1 ...

Core Insights - Azerbaijan's cotton production is projected to reach 97,000 tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.6% [1] - As of January 1, 2026, cotton inventory stands at 36,000 tons [1] - Cotton yarn production is expected to reach 22,000 tons in 2025, with an 18.4% year-on-year growth, and inventory at 5,183 tons [1] Export Data - Cotton exports are forecasted at 114,000 tons in 2025, showing a decline of 4.7% year-on-year, with export revenue at $160 million, down 9.1% [1] - Cotton yarn exports are anticipated to be 15,000 tons, marking a 30.5% increase year-on-year, with export revenue of $34.02 million, up 19.2% [1]

弘业期货农产品研究团队 2026/2/5 王晓蓓 从业资格号:F0272777 投资咨询证号：Z0010085 产业面无显著变化，关注宏观 产业面无显著变化，关注宏观 核心观点 本周，以贵金属为首的有色金属、能源化工拒付波动，带动郑棉起起落落。在本轮商品普跌中，郑棉 表现出明显的抗跌性。 产业面暂无明显变化，开机率和产成品库存稳中下滑。现货基差坚挺对棉价有较强支撑，内外价差高 企限制涨幅。总之，产业面上下驱动均不强，预计震荡为主。 关注：宏观 美印达成贸易协议 2月2日，双方达成贸易协议，核心内容如下： 美国对印度的"对等关税"将从25%降至18%，印度将相应降低对美关税和非关税壁垒，直至降至零， 并承诺购买价值超过5000亿美元的美国能源等产品，还可能买委内瑞拉石油。媒体称，印度官员确认未来 五年将购买5000亿美元美国商品，美方将撤销25%的对印关税。 据有关数据统计显示，截至2025年11月，印度纺织品服装在美国的市场份额为9.85%，中国纺织品服装 在美国的市场份额为18.23%。 产业面无显著变化，关注宏观 美棉检验量偏慢6个百分点，产量调整空间不大 根美国农业部的统计，截至2026年1月30日当周 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 3 日 棉花：预计保持震荡走势 20260203 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 | 元/吨 | 14,575 | -0.65% | 14635 | 0.41% | | | CY2603 | 元/吨 | 20,405 | -0.44% | 20435 | 0.15% | | | ICE美棉3 | 美分/磅 | 62.8 | -0.49% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 599,538 | -98,627 | 994,666 | -16,081 | | | CY2603 | 手 | 5,807 | -1,999 | 4,884 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - In the medium - to - long term, with the reduction of planting area in the new season and the positive future macro - expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: As of January 24, the cotton planting rate in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 60.6%, compared with 36.3% in the previous week, 46.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 40.9%. As of the week of January 23, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The January forecast of global cotton production for the 2025/26 season was 26 million tons, an 80,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast and a 200,000 - ton increase from the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December forecast and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous season. The January forecast of US production was 3.03 million tons, a 76,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast, with export estimates unchanged and an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease. Brazil's production estimate remained at 4.08 million tons; India's production decreased by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 15 to January 22, US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, with cumulative export sales of 1.7722 million tons, a 194,900 - ton decrease year - on - year; of which, exports to China were 8,800 tons that week, with cumulative exports of 97,400 tons, a 66,000 - ton decrease year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a 40,000 - ton increase year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a 1.56 - million - ton decrease year - on - year [9] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was 1,485 yuan/ton with a +0.5 long - short score and a strengthening basis; the Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread was - 140 yuan/ton with a +0 score and little change; the spinning immediate profit was - 1,623 yuan/ton with a +0 score and a profit decrease; the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 376 yuan/ton with a +0 score and little change; the FC index M 1% was 12,485 yuan/ton and the FC index M sliding - duty was 13,664 yuan/ton, with a - 0.5 score and a relatively high domestic premium. The summary was to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying [10] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: For the unilateral strategy, the operation suggestion was to buy on dips, with the core driving logic being the reduction of planting area in the new season and good macro - expectations [11] 3.2. Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis**: Figures showed the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract [27] - **Import Profit**: Figures presented the 1% tariff and sliding - duty price differences between domestic and foreign cotton [29] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Monthly Spread**: Figures showed the trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 spreads [31] - **Production and Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit**: Figures displayed the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's immediate profit [33] - **Foreign Market Spread**: Figures showed the spreads between different US cotton contracts and the price differences between US and Brazilian cotton and other indices [35][37] 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production**: Figures showed the processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton [41] - **Cotton Import Volume**: Figures presented the monthly and cumulative annual import volumes of Chinese cotton [43] - **US Export Contract Quantity to China**: Figures showed the cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of the US to China [46] - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume**: Figures presented the monthly and cumulative annual import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn [48] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Figures showed the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills [51] - **National Sales Progress**: Figures presented the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City [54] - **Cotton Inventory**: Figures showed the weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the monthly inventory of commercial and industrial sectors [56] - **Spinning Mill Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory**: Figures presented the cotton and yarn inventories of spinning mills [58] 3.4. International Market Situation - **US Planting Situation**: Figures showed the proportion of US cotton - planting areas without drought and the cotton good - quality rate [62] - **US Production Situation**: Figures presented the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes of US cotton, as well as the production estimate and planting area [64][65] - **US Export Contract Progress**: Figures showed the cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of US cotton in the current year [67] - **US Export Shipment Volume**: Figures presented the annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes of US cotton [69] - **US Supply and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: Figures showed the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of US cotton [70] - **Brazilian Production and Planting Area**: Figures presented the planting area and production of Brazilian cotton [72] - **Brazilian Export Volume**: Figures showed the export volume estimate and monthly export volume of Brazilian cotton, as well as the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio [74][75] - **Indian Production and Planting Area**: Figures presented the planting area and production of Indian cotton [77] - **Indian Consumption and Import - Export**: Figures showed the consumption, import - export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton [79][80]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（1.19-1.23） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周棉花总体围绕14500上下震荡，棉花经过前一轮快速上涨之后，目前消化涨幅，进一步上 冲动力不足，同时下跌也有支撑。 2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。USDA12月报：25/26年度产量2608.1万吨， 消费2582.3万吨，期末库存1654.1万吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下 降5.12%。12月份我国棉花进口18万吨，同比增加31%；棉纱进口17万吨，同比增加13.33%。 农村部12月25/26年度：产量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) fluctuated more significantly this week, following the overall trend of commodities. Driven by macro - positive factors, it rose significantly on Wednesday with obvious capital inflows, but was pressured around 15,000 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, although it is the off - season, cotton procurement still has rigid demand support. The strong basis boosts Zhengmian. The yarn and cotton prices are in a linked state, and the industrial chain is relatively healthy. The expected reduction in planting area needs to be implemented step - by - step without official confirmation. Overall, Zhengmian has short - term resistance above and support below, and is expected to maintain a volatile trend [53]. - Internationally, the drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas has slightly declined but remains at a relatively high level in recent years, and drought is expected to continue in the first quarter. The India - EU Free Trade Agreement has been officially signed, and India's textile export tariffs to the EU will be reduced after months of review and approval. Indian cotton prices and the quotes of the Cotton Corporation of India are stable. India has purchased about 30% of the expected production of lint cotton this season, and the auction turnover is lower than the listing volume. The yarn price in Vietnam is stable, orders are active with price - increase expectations, the yarn in Pakistan shows a strong trend, while the Indian yarn has a large bargaining space due to weak demand. Overall, there is support at the bottom of the international market, but the rebound space is limited, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [53]. - The operation suggestion is mainly short - term trading [54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated sharply this week with a weekly decline of 0.17%. ICE cotton futures fluctuated weakly with a weekly decline of 0.97% [9]. 3.1.2 Spot Price - This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index decreased by 307 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index decreased by 313 yuan/ton compared with last week [14]. 3.1.3 Cotton Import - In December, 180,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons [19]. 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory - In the first half of January, the commercial inventory of cotton was 5.8623 million tons. With a large amount of new cotton on the market, the market has entered an accelerated inventory - accumulation stage [24]. 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory - In December, the yarn inventory was 25.12 days, a year - on - year decrease of 3.67 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.76 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.33 days [29]. 3.1.6 Yarn Price - This week, yarn prices increased. The price of OE 10S棉纱 increased by 70 yuan/ton compared with last week, the price of C32S棉纱 increased by 110 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of JC40S棉纱 increased by 90 yuan/ton compared with last week [34]. 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 223. The number of warehouse receipts was 10,243, and the valid forecast was 1,072, totaling 11,315 [39]. 3.1.8 Seed Cotton Purchase - The content only shows the price data of Xinjiang seed cotton purchase, but no specific analysis or summary information [42]. 3.1.9 U.S. Cotton Exports - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of January 22, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the current year increased by 203,700 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 15,000 bales [47]. 3.1.10 U.S. Weather - The drought in the U.S. cotton - producing areas is still at a relatively high level. The total area in drought (D1 - D4) accounts for 36.0% [50]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a volatile trend with short - term resistance above and support below. Internationally, the international cotton market is also expected to maintain a volatile trend with support at the bottom and limited rebound space [53]. - The operation suggestion is mainly short - term trading [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, supported by fundamentals. The new - year market rumors of a production cut have some support for the cotton price, but short - term demand may have limited boost to the market due to the approaching Spring Festival [5][6]. - It is recommended to build long positions on dips in the unilateral trading of cotton, and to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [7][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In January, cotton futures prices were mainly volatile and slightly stronger. The short - term supply was relatively loose as new cotton processing was almost finished, and the rumor of a production cut in the new year supported the cotton price. The downstream orders were average, and the approaching Spring Festival led to limited short - term demand boost. The fundamentals of US cotton changed little, and it was expected to remain range - bound [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - In terms of fundamentals, the supply in the current year is expected to remain loose, but there are rumors of a production cut in the new year. The expected reduction of Xinjiang's cotton planting area by 2660000 mu (7%) in 2026 may support the market. The market had some restocking before, but due to the approaching Spring Festival, the short - term demand boost was expected to be limited [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The cotton fundamentals are still strong, and there is upward space in the long - run. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [7][11]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the first - part market review, in January, cotton futures prices were volatile and slightly stronger. The short - term supply was relatively loose, and the new - year production cut rumor supported the price. The downstream demand was average, and the Spring Festival limited short - term demand. US cotton fundamentals changed little and were expected to be range - bound [13]. 3.2.2 International Market - In the 25/26 cotton season, the global cotton production was adjusted down by 80000 tons to 26 million tons compared to the previous month, with an increase in China (220000 tons) and decreases in India (110000 tons) and the US (80000 tons). The demand was adjusted up, and the ending inventory decreased. Attention should be paid to the USDA planting plan in February [14]. 3.2.3 United States - The production of US cotton in the 25/26 season was adjusted slightly. The new - year cotton - grain ratio is not advantageous, and the planting area is likely to be reduced. As of January 15, the cumulative signing volume of US cotton was 1.6669 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.91%, and the cumulative shipment volume was 755300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.98%. China's cumulative signing volume was 82400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 46.72%, and the cumulative shipment was 32900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66.13%. As of January 23, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US cotton was 2.9374 million tons, accounting for 96.9% of the annual estimated production, with a slower progress year - on - year [16][17]. 3.2.4 Other Countries - India: The CAI's report shows that as of December 31, 2025, the production in the 2025/26 season was adjusted up by 130000 tons, domestic demand by 170000 tons, and exports down by 50000 tons, leading to an increase in ending inventory by 10000 tons compared to the previous month. As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative market volume of Indian cotton was 2.64 million tons, with a market progress of 49%, a year - on - year increase of 16%. - Brazil: As of January 10, the cotton planting progress in the 2025/26 season was 31.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 percentage points, but slower than the same period last year and the three - year average, mainly due to the stagnant planting in Bahia [18][22]. 3.2.5 Domestic Market - Supply: As of mid - January, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.86 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years. As of January 22, the cumulative picked lint cotton was 7.407 million tons, the cumulative sold lint cotton was 4.631 million tons, a significant year - on - year increase. In December 2025, the imported cotton was 177300 tons. The current internal - external price difference is around 2900 yuan/ton, and imported cotton has an advantage. - Demand: It is currently the off - season, and the approaching Spring Festival limits short - term demand. As of mid - January, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 931400 tons, the yarn inventory was 26.35 days, and the grey cloth inventory was 31.112 days. In December, domestic demand was fair, while external demand was average [24][25][26]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.3.1 Market Outlook - Global: The cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to be around 25 - 26 million tons, and in the 26/27 season, it is likely to be around 25.5 - 26.5 million tons. The demand is expected to change little. Attention should be paid to the USDA annual meeting's planting plan in February. - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, the cotton supply is expected to be sufficient in the short - term, but there may be low - inventory trading factors in June - August. The new - year planting area is rumored to decrease, and the production in the 26/27 season may decline. The demand is expected to be neutral to slightly positive, with domestic demand likely to remain stable and exports possibly improving due to the easing of Sino - US relations [50][51].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 27 日 棉花：盘整等待新的驱动 20260127 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 | 元/吨 | 14,650 | -0.31% | 14580 | -0.48% | | | CY2603 | 元/吨 | 20,515 | 0.05% | 20435 | -0.39% | | | ICE美棉3 | 美分/磅 | 62.94 | -1.41% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 644,470 | 220,934 | 1,145,743 | -16,530 | | | CY2603 | 手 | 11,167 | -1,999 | 13,284 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market are supportive, and cotton prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend in the short - term. The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is likely to continue range - bound oscillations, while the domestic cotton market's fundamentals remain strong [8][29]. - The sales progress of cotton is still fast, and the easing of Sino - US relations and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity in the new year bring certain expectations for cotton consumption, supporting the upward movement of the fundamentals. However, considering the previous reaction of bullish factors and the high internal - external price difference, and the lack of obvious bullish drivers in US cotton in the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly upward in the short - term [41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamentals have few contradictions, and the US cotton price is expected to continue range - bound oscillations. As of January 16, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton accounted for 94.6% of the estimated annual US cotton production, with a year - on - year slowdown of 8%. The weekly deliverable ratio was 75.4%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.1%, 1.3 percentage points higher year - on - year. The US cotton listing inspection is nearing the end, and the production estimate was slightly lowered in January [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week of January 8, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 77,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 247% and an 89% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipment volume was 35,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1% and an 8% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks [8]. - **CFTC Data**: As of January 13, 2026, the net long rate of ICE cotton futures funds was - 15.17% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 percentage points) [8]. - **Brazil**: As of January 17, the cotton planting in the 2025/26 season in Brazil was 36.34% completed, a month - on - month increase of 4.4 percentage points, 2.8 percentage points slower year - on - year, and 13.7 percentage points slower than the average of the past three years [8]. - **India**: As of January 15, 2026, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in Pakistan in the 2025/26 season reached 851,000 tons, basically the same year - on - year. The textile mills' procurement was 750,000 tons, a 1% year - on - year decline, and the unsold new cotton was 74,000 tons, a 5% year - on - year decline [8]. - **Global Situation**: According to the latest January global cotton production and sales forecast by USDA, the changes are not significant. The global cotton production in January was 26 million tons, a month - on - month reduction of 80,000 tons; the total consumption increased by 70,000 tons to 25.89 million tons; the ending inventory decreased by 320,000 tons to 16.22 million tons [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of the week of January 15, the national ginning mill operating rate dropped to 36.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 11.59%. As of January 21, 2026, the cumulative public inspection of lint was 7.06 million tons, and the cumulative public inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 6.8 million tons. In December, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.6598 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 99,600 tons [29]. - **Demand Side**: As of January 22, the cumulative sales of lint were 4.409 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years, an increase of 2.41 million tons compared to the average of the past four years. As of January 15, the operating load of spinning mills in mainstream areas was 64.6%, a 0.15% decrease from the previous week. As of January 16, the gray fabric operating load increased to 48.7. As of the week of January 8, the cotton inventory of spinning mills in mainstream areas was equivalent to 24.59 days of stock [29]. - **Comprehensive Outlook**: The supply side has little change, and the expected reduction in the cotton planting area in the new year supports the market. The demand side shows a fast sales progress and increased downstream stocking willingness. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival, the short - term demand is expected to change little. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly upward in the short - term [29]. 3.3 Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: The fast cotton sales progress, the easing of Sino - US relations, and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity in the new year support the upward movement of the fundamentals. Affected by the macro - sentiment, the cotton price has significantly corrected, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [41]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: It is expected that the US cotton price will likely range - bound oscillate in the short - term, and Zhengzhou cotton's fundamentals remain strong. One can consider building long positions on dips [43]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [43]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [42]. 3.4 Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal - External Price Difference**: Relevant data on the internal - external cotton price difference and the price difference trend between September and January are presented [46][47]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Information on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mills' industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory is provided [49]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: Data on the basis of cotton and cotton yarn are presented, including the basis of US cotton, the basis of January, May, and September contracts of cotton, and the basis between C32S cotton yarn spot and the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton yarn [52].