1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, cotton continued to move sideways, digesting the previous gains. In the short - term, the fundamental factors are favorable, and the futures price is slightly bullish with oscillations. Cotton is expected to fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,500 in the short term [5][6]. - The traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" for cotton have arrived. The US tariffs have been lowered, and Sino - US relations have eased, which is beneficial for textile exports [6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the expected reduction of Xinjiang cotton planting area by over 10% in 2026, pre - holiday downstream restocking, reduced export tariffs to the US, improved Sino - US relations, and the arrival of the "Golden March and Silver April" peak seasons. Negative factors include the overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 3.2 Daily Hints No relevant information provided. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Data**: According to ICAC, the global cotton consumption in 2026/27 is expected to be 25 million tons, and the output is 24.8 million tons. The output in 2026/27 is expected to decrease by 4% mainly due to the reduction in Brazil and the US. Consumption remains relatively stable, with the decrease in Chinese consumption offset by the growth in India and Vietnam. The global cotton ending inventory is expected to decline by 1%, and China's inventory is expected to drop by 5% to 7.7 million tons [5][15]. - **USDA February Report**: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton output is 26.096 million tons, consumption is 25.847 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.353 million tons. In China, the output is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons [5]. - **Customs Data**: In December, textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. In December, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31%; cotton yarn imports were 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [5]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market has certain fundamental support, and the cotton price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term. The US cotton market is expected to be range - bound, while the Zhengzhou cotton may also have a short - term range - bound trend. Traders can consider building long positions on dips for Zhengzhou cotton but should avoid chasing high prices. For options, it is recommended to wait and see, and for arbitrage, also wait and see [29][42] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Domestic and International Market Analysis 3.1.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamentals of the US cotton market have changed little, and it is expected to be range - bound. As of February 27, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 3.0387 million tons, accounting for 100.3% of the estimated annual US cotton production, a 4% year - on - year decline. The weekly deliverable ratio was 71.2%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 81.7%, 1.1 percentage points higher year - on - year. The final inspection volume is expected to be around 3.05 - 3.07 million tons [9] - **US Cotton Growing Conditions**: As of March 3, the drought index in the main US cotton - producing areas continued to rise, and the drought level in the main producing areas and Texas was at a relatively high level in recent years. According to the quarterly outlook, the drought in the main US cotton - producing areas will continue from March to May, intensify in the central - western regions, and ease in the eastern regions [9] - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week of February 26, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 34,100 tons, a 41% weekly decrease and a 50% decrease compared with the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipment volume was 64,000 tons, a 46% weekly increase and a 43% increase compared with the average of the previous four weeks [9] - **CFTC Data**: As of February 27, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2605 contract increased by 1,563 to 20,815, an increase of 40,000 tons compared with the previous week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 2025/26 season increased by 2,667 to 35,139, equivalent to 800,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons compared with the previous week [9] - **Brazil**: Reports of excessive rainfall in the main producing state of Mato Grosso were exaggerated. Although many private forecasting agencies' production estimates are slightly lower than the official CONAB's 2.6232 million tons in the February report, nearly 70% of the crops were planted within the ideal sowing window [9] - **Global Situation**: According to the latest USDA February global cotton production and sales forecast, the global cotton production in February was 26.09 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons. China's total production increased by 100,000 tons to 7.62 million tons. The total consumption was adjusted down by 45,000 tons to 25.84 million tons, and the ending inventory was adjusted up by 140,000 tons to 16.35 million tons [8][9] 3.1.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of the week of March 5, the operating rate of national ginneries continued to decline to 5.78%, a slight increase of 0.29% compared with before the festival. As of March 4, 2026, the cumulative public inspection was 33,155,737 bales, totaling 7,484,308 tons, a 12.79% year - on - year increase. As of February 27, 2026, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.2676 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 87,800 tons (a 1.64% decrease) [29] - **Demand Side**: As of February 27, the cumulative sales volume of national lint cotton was 5.146 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.846 million tons and an increase of 2.309 million tons compared with the average of the past four years. As of March 5, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 73.2%, a 13.31% increase compared with the previous week [29] - **Overall Situation**: The current market contradictions are not significant. With the resumption of work in the downstream, the market has certain expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April". The cotton sales progress is still fast, at a high level in the same period of previous years. The cotton fundamentals have certain support, but considering that the previous positive factors have been reflected, it is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will be range - bound in the short term [29] 3.1.3 Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the US cotton will be range - bound in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton has certain fundamental support, and traders can consider building long positions on dips but should not chase high prices [42] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [42] - **Options**: Wait and see [41] 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: The document shows the historical data of the internal and external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 spread trend [45][46] - **Cotton Inventory**: It shows the historical data of national cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton industrial inventory, reserve inventory, and other aspects [48] - **Spot - Futures Basis**: It shows the basis data of cotton in different months and the basis trend of US seven - major market upland cotton [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton adjusted slightly this week. The situation between the US and Iran suppressed Zhengzhou cotton prices. Domestic policies are stable with a loosening tendency. The textile industry has entered the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", but the recovery of orders is slow. Downstream demand is mainly for replenishing inventory as needed, and the acceptance of high - priced cotton is low. The inventory of cotton yarn is slowly decreasing, and the cost - transmission channel is blocked. In terms of industrial fundamentals, domestic new cotton sales are coming to an end, industrial and commercial inventories are lower than the same period last year, and inventory pressure is gradually easing. The expectation of a significant reduction in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in the 2026/27 season continues to ferment, providing support for cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices are difficult to break the oscillation pattern, and in the medium term, with the start of spring sowing and the gradual realization of peak - season demand, the price center is expected to move up steadily [52]. - Internationally, the global macro - environment is oscillating. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased market risk - aversion sentiment. The US dollar index is at a high level, suppressing the valuation of commodities. Overseas textile demand is recovering weakly, and the operating rate of Southeast Asian textile enterprises is low. The international cotton market is under pressure. In terms of industrial fundamentals, the export progress of US cotton is slow, and overseas purchasing willingness is low. There is insufficient momentum for the short - term rebound of overseas cotton prices [52]. - The operation suggestion is to try to go long on dips [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Spot Price**: This week, the cotton price index declined. The 3128 index decreased by 130 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index also decreased by 130 yuan/ton [15]. - **Cotton Import Situation**: In December, 180,000 tons of cotton were imported, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year [20]. - **Cotton Inventory Situation**: In the first half of February, the commercial inventory of cotton was 5.5037 million tons, and the commercial inventory reached a turning point [21]. - **Downstream Inventory Situation**: In January, the yarn inventory was 21.71 days, a year - on - year decrease of 0.05 days. The grey fabric inventory was 33.13 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.65 days [28]. - **Yarn Price**: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of open - end spun 10 - count cotton yarn remained the same as last week, the price of carded 32 - count cotton yarn increased by 50 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of combed 40 - count cotton yarn increased by 230 yuan/ton compared with last week [33]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 227. The number of warehouse receipts was 11,390, the valid forecast was 1,253, and the total was 12,643 [38]. - **Seed Cotton Purchase Situation**: The report shows the trend of Xinjiang seed cotton purchase prices, but no specific summary data is provided [41]. - **US Cotton Export Situation**: According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of February 26, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the current year increased by 150,000 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 54,600 bales [46]. - **US Weather Situation**: The proportion of abnormally dry areas in the US is 21.0%, moderate drought is 25.3%, severe drought is 14.8%, extreme drought is 5.5%, and exceptional drought is 0.3%. The total area in drought (D1 - D4) is 45.9% [49]. 3.2后市展望 - Domestically, short - term cotton prices are in an oscillation pattern, and in the medium term, the price center is expected to move up steadily. Internationally, the international cotton market is under pressure, and there is insufficient momentum for the short - term rebound of overseas cotton prices. The operation suggestion is to try to go long on dips [52][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term bullish factors of Zhengzhou cotton are concentrated, and the market needs adjustment. Fundamentally, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming, the US tariffs have been reduced, and Sino - US relations have eased, which is beneficial to textile exports. Cotton will fluctuate and adjust, and the main contract 05 should pay attention to the support around 15,000 [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No information provided in the report 3.2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. According to the USDA February report, the output in the 2025/2026 season is 26.096 million tons, consumption is 25.847 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.353 million tons. In December, textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 31%; imported 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 2025/2026 season, the output is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,633, and the basis is 1408 (05 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season to be 8.29 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, the net long position increases, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectation**: Zhengzhou cotton's short - term bullish factors are concentrated, and the market needs adjustment. Fundamentally, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming, the US tariffs have been reduced, and Sino - US relations have eased, which is beneficial to textile exports. Cotton will fluctuate and adjust, and the main contract 05 should pay attention to the support around 15,000 [4]. 3.3. Today's Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. Downstream replenished inventory before the Spring Festival. The export tariff to the US has been reduced. Sino - US relations have eased. The traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders have decreased, and inventory has increased. A large amount of new cotton has been put on the market. Currently, it is the traditional off - season for consumption [6]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In the 2025/2026 season, the total global cotton output is 26.096 million tons, consumption is 25.847 million tons, imports are 9.516 million tons, exports are 9.517 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.353 million tons [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (November 2025)**: In the 2025/2026 season, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the output is 25.39956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 15.83577 million tons, imports are 9.71442 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, exports are 9.71412 million tons, the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 0.65 [12]. - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In the 2025/2026 season, the beginning inventory is 7.88 million tons, the planting area is 2.979 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 2229 kg/ha, the output is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is 75 - 100 cents/pound [14]. 3.5. Position Data - No information provided in the report

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the international market, the expected decline in global cotton production in the 2026/27 season and the narrowing of the supply - demand pattern are expected to provide some support for US cotton prices, which in turn will drive up the domestic cotton prices. In the short term, the market has cooled down, and there is insufficient support for the upward movement of US cotton at the macro - level. In the medium to long term, the ICE US cotton futures price still has room to rise, but it will mainly fluctuate in the short term [11]. - In the domestic market, there are both bullish and bearish factors, but it is still worth looking forward to. In the medium to long term, there is still some room for the cotton price to rise, but there may be a slight short - term correction. The resonance between domestic and foreign cotton prices may increase [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The expected cotton production in the 2026/27 season is expected to decline year - on - year in the world, the US, and China. The global cotton production is expected to be 25.26 million tons, a 3.2% year - on - year decrease; the US cotton production is expected to be 2.96 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year decrease; and China's cotton production is expected to be 6.97 million tons, an 8.6% year - on - year decrease [6]. - As of February 26, the national cotton inspection volume was 7.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 948,300 tons [6]. - The national cotton inspection volume was about 7.48 million tons, with Xinjiang's inspection volume at 7.1057 million tons as of February 26 [40]. - The sales rate and sales volume of lint cotton are much higher than the same period last year. As of February 12, 2026, the cotton sales volume was 4.991 million tons, and the sales rate was 67.40% [42]. Demand - After the Spring Festival, the operating load of textile enterprises has continued to recover. The inferred monthly cotton consumption based on inventory data remains at a relatively high level [7]. - In December, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, knitwear, and textiles in China were 166.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and the cumulative retail sales from January to December were 1.5215 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [7]. - As of the week of February 27, the comprehensive load of yarn was 39.08%, a week - on - week increase of 14.3 percentage points; the load of pure - cotton yarn mills was 43.02%, a week - on - week increase of 23.85 percentage points [7]. - As of the week of February 27, the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 32.7%, a week - on - week increase of 10.35 percentage points; the load of all - cotton grey cloth was 30.25%, a week - on - week increase of 9.12 percentage points [7]. - US clothing retail sales remain strong. In December, the monthly retail sales of US clothing and clothing accessories were $27.337 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7% and a year - on - year increase of 5.1% [52]. - The operating rate of Vietnamese textile enterprises increased month - on - month. As of February 27, the weekly operating rate of Vietnam was 68.5%, a month - on - month increase of 8.5 percentage points [55]. Import and Export - The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton under the 1% tariff has continued to widen. As of February 26, the price difference was 3,798 yuan/ton, reaching a new high in the same period in recent years [8]. - As of the week of February 12, the total US cotton export contract volume was 1.985 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 223,000 tons, and China's contract volume was 98,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 93,000 tons [8]. - In December, the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was $13.412 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 10.19%; the cumulative export from January to December was $151.182 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [8]. - In December, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, reaching a new high in the year; the monthly import value of cotton yarn was 170,000 tons, reaching a new high in the same period in the past five years [70][75]. - The import cotton price index strengthened month - on - month. As of February 26, the price index of medium - grade imported cotton for 1% quota port pick - up price was 12,883 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.93% [83]. Inventory - The commercial cotton inventory decreased more than expected month - on - month. As of mid - February, China's commercial cotton inventory was 5.5037 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 285,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 177,400 tons [9]. - The raw material inventory of spinning enterprises decreased slightly, and the raw material inventory of weaving factories increased slightly, while the finished - product inventory gradually accumulated [9]. - As of the week of February 27, the comprehensive yarn inventory was 23.63 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 days; the comprehensive staple - fiber cloth inventory was 32.78 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 days [9]. - The US clothing wholesaler inventory increased month - on - month for two consecutive months. In December 2025, the US clothing and clothing accessories wholesaler inventory was $28.561 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.77% and a year - on - year increase of 2.31% [86]. Price - The center of the cotton spot price has significantly moved up. As of February 27, 2026, the cotton prices in China, Xinjiang, Henan, Shandong, and Zhejiang all increased month - on - month, with increases ranging from 4.76% to 6.81% [24]. - The cotton basis increased month - on - month. As of February 27, 2026, the basis was 1,318 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 209 yuan [26]. - The 5 - 9 spread of cotton increased month - on - month. As of February 27, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread was 0 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan [28]. - The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton under the 1% tariff increased month - on - month. As of February 27, 2026, the price difference was 3,959 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 634 yuan [32]. - The closing price of cotton yarn and the price of pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn increased month - on - month. As of February 27, 2026, the closing price of cotton yarn was 21,245 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.71%; the price of pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn was 21,870 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.58% [34]. - The cotton yarn basis fluctuated and declined. As of February 27, 2026, the cotton yarn basis was 625 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 195 yuan [37]. Option - The historical volatility of cotton options has increased significantly [102].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Due to the overall positive outlook from the US Agricultural Outlook Forum during the holiday, short - term positive effects of US tariffs, improved medium - to - long - term fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton, and the favor of funds, Zhengzhou cotton prices soared after the holiday. The main contract reached a maximum of 15,665 yuan/ton this week. Although there was a subsequent correction, it encountered resistance around 15,300 yuan/ton, showing an overall strong trend. In the medium - to - long - term, with the improvement of supply - demand fundamentals, Zhengzhou cotton still has room for growth, and it is advisable to buy on dips. In the short - term, there may be correction pressure, but the amplitude is limited. Recently, attention should be paid to the resumption of work in the downstream after the holiday and cotton - related policies [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Global and US Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast - According to the latest forecast of the US Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Outlook Forum, in the 26/27 cotton season, the global total cotton production is expected to decrease by 3.2% year - on - year, consumption to increase by 1.2% year - on - year, and ending stocks to decrease by 5.2% year - on - year. The US cotton planting area is expected to increase by 1.3% year - on - year, the harvested area to decrease by 2.2% year - on - year, and the yield per unit to remain flat. The total US cotton production is expected to be 2.96 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%, consumption to remain flat year - on - year, exports to increase by 1.7% year - on - year, and ending stocks to decrease by 4.5% year - on - year. China's cotton production is expected to be 32 million bales, with a consumption increase of about 1% [5]. US Cotton Export Signing - As of the week ending February 19, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 57,400 tons, a 46% week - on - week decline (the signing volume in the week of February 12 reached a new high for the year), a 7% increase compared to the four - week average, and a 19% year - on - year decline. Among them, Bangladesh signed 16,000 tons and India 13,500 tons. The total signing volume of US cotton in the 2025/26 season accounted for 79% of the forecast, a 3 - percentage - point week - on - week increase and a 15 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease, with the decline narrowing by 1 percentage point compared to last week. The total shipment progress was 51%, a 1 - percentage - point week - on - week increase and a 3 - percentage - point year - on - year increase [7][21]. Domestic Downstream Situation - As of Thursday this week, the operating rate of yarn mills has recovered to 41%, and that of fabric mills to 36.2%. In terms of raw materials for yarn mills, the pre - holiday cotton yarn inventory of yarn mills has reached 35 days, the highest in recent years, and currently, the willingness to purchase raw materials is not strong. The current spot price difference between domestic and foreign cotton (1% tariff) is about 3,800 yuan/ton [8]. Price and Spread Information - **Futures Price Changes**: From February 13 to February 26, 2026, the price of the ZCE active contract of cotton increased from 14,740 yuan/ton to 15,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 610 yuan/ton; the price of the ICE active contract increased from 64.18 cents/pound to 65.37 cents/pound, an increase of 1.19 cents/pound [9]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of Thursday this week, the 328 cotton spot price index was 16,681 yuan/ton, a 562 - yuan/ton increase compared to before the holiday; the closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 15,350 yuan/ton, a 610 - yuan/ton increase compared to before the holiday; the basis between them was 1,331 yuan/ton, a 48 - yuan/ton week - on - week expansion. The C32S yarn price index was 21,870 yuan/ton, a 350 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase; the closing price of the Zhengzhou yarn main contract was 21,255 yuan/ton, a 725 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase; the basis between them was 615 yuan/ton, a 375 - yuan/ton week - on - week expansion [48]. - **Domestic and Foreign Price Spreads**: On Thursday this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port delivery price index of imported cotton under the sliding - scale tariff was 336 yuan/ton, a 195 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase; the price difference with the port delivery price of imported cotton under the 1% tariff was 67 yuan/ton, a 104 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase. The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port delivery price was 2,780 yuan/ton, a 3,798 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase [51]. - **Futures Spread and Processing Profit**: On Thursday this week, on the futures market, the spread between the Zhengzhou yarn main contract and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 5,850 yuan/ton, a 60 - yuan/ton week - on - week expansion; the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure cotton yarn was - 2,180 yuan/ton, with the loss amplitude expanding by 325 yuan/ton week - on - week [54]. Warehouse Receipt Information - As of Thursday this week, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 12,416 sheets; the sum of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 52 sheets [62].

Report Information - Report Date: February 12, 2026 [3] - Research Team: Hongye Futures Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Author: Wang Xiaobei [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The bullish factor of the decline in new cotton area in 2026 has been partially reflected, which is bullish for the price of Zhengzhou Cotton in the long term. Coupled with factors such as the purchase cost of lint cotton and the relatively fast sales progress this year, the support for Zhengzhou Cotton around 14,500 yuan/ton is relatively obvious [4]. - In the short term, there is no strong driving force in the industrial aspect itself, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. In the medium and long term, the center still has room to move up [4]. - Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand after the festival and relevant cotton - related policies [4] Summary by Content 1. US Cotton Signing and Export Situation - As of the week of January 29, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 56,700 tons, a 23% increase from the previous week, a 5% decrease from the four - week average, and an 11% decrease from the same period last year. Among them, Vietnam signed 12,200 tons, Pakistan 10,900 tons, and China 8,300 tons [5][22]. - In the 2025/26 season, the total signing and sales progress of US cotton is 70%, 15 percentage points slower than the average of the same period in the past four years; the cumulative export shipment progress is 50%, 9 percentage points faster than the average of the same period in the past four years. China's total signing volume is 100,000 tons, a 35% year - on - year decrease, and Vietnam's total signing volume is 590,000 tons, a 56% year - on - year increase [5] 2. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Supply - Demand Report - Due to the lag in sales, the February USDA report reduced the US cotton export forecast by 200,000 bales, and the ending inventory increased by the same amount accordingly. It also raised the forecast of China's cotton production by 108,000 tons to 7.62 million tons. The overall adjustment is basically in line with market expectations and has little impact on the price trends of ICE and ZCE futures [6] 3. Price Difference between Domestic and Foreign Cotton - Since the end of last year, the basis between domestic and foreign cotton has continued to widen. As of this Wednesday, the price difference between the 328 cotton price index and the port pick - up price of imported cotton price index within 1% tariff has reached 3,600 yuan/ton, and the price difference under the sliding - scale tariff has reached 2,400 yuan/ton. The relatively high domestic - foreign price difference limits the increase of Zhengzhou Cotton [7] 4. Price and Inventory Data - **Cotton and Yarn Price Changes**: - As of this Wednesday, the 328 cotton spot price index is 16,029 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 17 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton is 14,745 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 135 yuan/ton; the basis between the two is 1,284 yuan/ton, a weekly expansion of 118 yuan/ton [49]. - The C32S yarn price index is 21,520 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 65 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Yarn is 20,590 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of - 5 yuan/ton; the basis between the two is 930 yuan/ton, a weekly expansion of 70 yuan/ton [49]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Difference Changes**: - This Wednesday, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port pick - up price index of imported cotton under the sliding - scale tariff is 2,418 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 156 yuan/ton; the price difference with the port pick - up price of imported cotton within 1% tariff is 3,645 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 214 yuan/ton [52]. - The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick - up price is - 37 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 14 yuan/ton [52]. - **Futures Spread and Processing Profit**: - This Wednesday, on the futures market, the spread between the main contract of Zhengzhou Yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton is 5,845 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 70 yuan/ton [56]. - The immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure cotton yarn is - 1,791 yuan/ton, and the loss amplitude is reduced by 36 yuan/ton week - on - week [56]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: - As of this Thursday, the total of Zhengzhou Cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 11,969 lots; the total of Zhengzhou Yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 7 lots [63]

Group 1 - The central government's first document of the year emphasizes the systematic deployment for the development of various specialty agricultural products, particularly supporting the stable development of cotton, sugar, and natural rubber industries [1][2] - The continuation of the cotton target price policy has provided a "reassurance" for cotton farmers and processing enterprises, effectively stimulating planting enthusiasm [1][4] - The document prioritizes enhancing agricultural comprehensive production capacity and quality efficiency, aligning with the transition of the Xinjiang cotton industry from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement, green transformation, and industrial chain extension" [2][4] Group 2 - The document highlights the importance of accelerating the breeding and promotion of breakthrough varieties, which is expected to lead to technological breakthroughs in cotton planting, addressing long-standing issues of mixed varieties and inconsistent quality [2][3] - The integration of futures trading in the cotton industry has become increasingly significant, with market participants actively using futures tools for operational management, enhancing the quality and efficiency of the cotton industry [3][4] - The dual support of policy and financial empowerment is anticipated to accelerate the high-quality development of Xinjiang's cotton industry, contributing to the security of cotton supply, rural revitalization, and sustainable income growth for farmers [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the cotton price will be volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, and bullish in the long term. The report does not explicitly provide a traditional investment rating such as "buy", "hold", or "sell" [3]. Core Viewpoints - The 26/27 annual cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to be structurally reduced, and combined with water resource constraints and food planting requirements, the supply contraction expectation is clear. Although the spinning profit has declined month-on-month, there is still cash flow profit in Xinjiang, which is conducive to maintaining the purchasing intention of yarn mills. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, commercial inventories are gradually accumulating. The new cotton basis for pre - sale before the end of January next year is 800 - 1100, and the spread between January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton has strengthened this week. The current absolute price is at a neutral level in the past four years. The Fed cut interest rates as expected in December 2026, and the global monetary policy tends to be loose in 2026, which boosts the risk appetite for commodities and indirectly supports cotton prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The 26/27 annual cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to be structurally reduced, and supply contraction is expected due to water resource constraints and food planting requirements [3]. - **Demand**: Although the spinning profit has declined month - on - month, there is still cash flow profit in Xinjiang, which helps maintain the purchasing intention of yarn mills [3]. - **Inventory**: As new cotton is listed in large quantities, commercial inventories are gradually accumulating [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis for pre - sale of new cotton delivered before the end of January next year is 800 - 1100, and the spread between January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton has strengthened this week [3]. - **Profit**: Although the spinning profit has declined month - on - month, there is still cash flow profit in Xinjiang, which is conducive to maintaining the operation of yarn mills [3]. - **Valuation**: The current absolute price is at a neutral level in the past four years [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected in December 2026, and the global monetary policy tends to be loose in 2026, which boosts the risk appetite for commodities and indirectly supports cotton prices [3]. - **Investment View**: The short - term cotton price is volatile with a slight upward trend, and bullish in the long term. The reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the 26/27 year is the core theme, and attention should be paid to the extrusion of cotton yarn imports and the implementation rhythm of policies [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, also wait and see. Pay attention to domestic macro - policies, Sino - US trade policies, and downstream consumption [3]. Part Two: Cotton Fundamental Data - **US Textile and Apparel Imports**: The import structure is being re - configured. The report presents the monthly import volume data of US clothing and accessories from multiple countries including the world, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan, India, and China from 2020 - 2025 [5][6][8]. - **EU Textile and Apparel Imports**: Mainly from China and Bangladesh, with a slight year - on - year increase [12]. - **Upstream Supply**: The inspection progress is faster than the same period [20]. - **Imports**: Cotton imports are restricted, while cotton yarn imports are increasing [27]. - **Upstream Inventory**: Seasonally rising [34]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: Finished products are seasonally destocking [42]. - **Mid - stream Factory Load**: The resumption of operation is slow [51]. - **Mid - stream Yarn Mill Profit**: Overall, losses are narrowing, and Xinjiang is profitable [56]. - **Terminal Consumption**: Exports are deteriorating [62]. - **US Cotton Market**: The annual processing volume data from 2020 - 2025 is presented. US cotton exports (signing and shipping) are slightly increasing year - on - year, and exports to China are sporadic. The US textile and apparel inventory is at a high level, and retail sales are increasing year - on - year [80][82][89][94]. - **Brazilian Supply**: The total export volume is increasing, but the proportion of exports to China is decreasing [97]. - **Indian Supply**: The window for importing Indian cotton yarn is open [100]. - **Australian Supply**: Exports to China remain at a high level [104]. Part Three: Cotton Capital - related Data - **Zhengzhou Cotton Basis**: Fluctuating at a high level [110]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Position**: The position of the 05 contract is relatively high year - on - year [120]. - **Managed Fund's Net Long Position in US Cotton Futures**: Data from 2018 - 2026 is presented, including net long positions and long - position ratios [129]. - **US Cotton 03 - 05 Spread**: Data from 2021 - 2026 is presented [130].

Core Viewpoint - The case of "Cotton Quality Detection and Quality Traceability Patent Technology Industrialization" from Shihezi University has been recognized as one of the top 20 outstanding cases in the third batch of patent transformation and application by the National Intellectual Property Administration for 2025, highlighting advancements in the cotton industry through digital upgrades [1] Group 1 - The case integrates nine patents into a patent portfolio, achieving a transformation amount of 10 million yuan [1] - The technology effectively overcomes traditional cotton quality detection technology bottlenecks and establishes a comprehensive digital traceability system [1] - This system provides solid technical support for cotton quality control and ensures the effective implementation of related policies [1] Group 2 - To accelerate technology promotion, Shihezi University has organized research teams to actively participate in supply-demand matching activities [1] - The research team innovatively adopted a phased revenue model, linking transfer revenues with the industrialization process and market returns of the assignee [1] - This approach significantly lowers the technical application threshold for enterprises, facilitating the rapid transformation of patent technology into productive forces and injecting strong momentum into the digital transformation of the cotton industry [1]