Report Title - "20250809 Cotton Weekly Report: As the Golden September and Silver October Approach, Focus on Short - Long Opportunities Before the New Cotton Goes on the Market" [1] Core View - With the approaching of the Golden September and Silver October, attention should be paid to short - long opportunities before the new cotton goes on the market. Compared with the June forecast, the data adjustment this time is bearish, with the increase in production exceeding that in consumption, leading to an expected increase in global ending inventory in the new year. However, there may be further room for adjustment in China's production, and the optimistic global consumption forecast may lead to a further increase in ending inventory [4][5] Cotton Supply and Demand Balance (July) Production - In the 2025/26 season, global production is expected to increase by 311,000 tons month - on - month to 2.578 million tons. China's production is expected to increase by 218,000 tons to 674,900 tons, the US by 131,000 tons to 304,800 tons, and Pakistan's production is expected to decrease by 44,000 tons to 108,900 tons [4] Consumption - Global consumption in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 78,000 tons month - on - month to 2.5718 million tons. Pakistan's consumption is expected to increase by 65,000 tons to 237,300 tons [5] Trade - Global imports and exports in the 2025/26 season are expected to decline slightly by 20,000 - 30,000 tons month - on - month. China's imports are expected to decrease by 152,000 tons to 126,300 tons, and Pakistan's imports are expected to increase by 131,000 tons to 128,400 tons [5] Ending Inventory - Global ending inventory in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 113,000 tons month - on - month to 1.6833 million tons. China's ending inventory is expected to increase by 11,000 tons to 807,000 tons, and the US's by 65,000 tons to 100,100 tons [5] Cotton and Yarn Spot and Futures Cotton Spot and Futures - Cotton prices increased during the week, and the basis was relatively strong [6] Yarn Spot and Futures - Yarn prices were weak during the week, and the terminal's price - holding ability was poor [11] Supply Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory - This week, the national industrial and commercial cotton inventory decreased by 150,400 tons to 2.8637 million tons, lower than the same period by 97,100 tons. The available days of pure - cotton yarn inventory increased by 0.06 days to 31.93 days, and the terminal grey fabric inventory increased by 0.42 days to 30.99 days. The finished product replenishment speed slowed down further [14] Imported Cotton and Yarn - In June, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of about 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1%. From January to June, the cumulative import was about 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 74.3%. In June, the import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 0.1% and a month - on - month increase of about 10,000 tons [16] Cotton Warehouse Receipts - As of August 8, the registered cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou decreased by 432 to 8,252, with 330 valid forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 8,582, equivalent to 343,280 tons of cotton. As cotton prices stabilized after falling, the willingness of some cotton - using enterprises to take over warehouse receipts at low prices increased [18] Demand Factory Operation Rate and Profit - This week, the spinning mill operation rate decreased by 0.9% to 65.7%, and the weaving mill operation rate decreased by 0.1% to 37%. The spinning mill orders decreased by 0.49 days to 6.84 days. The on - the - spot profit of the mainstream yarn in the inland increased to - 1,595.8 yuan/ton, and the expected profit of enterprises in Xinjiang recovered to 400 yuan/ton [20] Market Transactions - This week, the total turnover in the Light Textile City decreased by 282,000 meters to 4.622 million meters, and the cotton cloth turnover decreased by 60,000 meters to 170,000 meters. In Keqiao, the accessory price decreased by 2.29 to 114.15, and the fabric price increased by 1.46 to 112.12 [23] Social Consumption - In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the cumulative total was 2.45458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles of enterprises above the designated size in June reached 127.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [24] Export Situation - From January to July 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 170.74 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In July, the export was 26.77 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 2%. In June, China's clothing and textile exports to the US increased, while those to the EU and ASEAN showed different trends [27][33] Industry PMI - In June, the cotton textile industry PMI decreased by 1.95% to 47.71%, remaining below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. New order PMI increased by 3.15% to 44.68%, and the operation rate PMI increased by 1.04% to 52.13%. The yarn inventory PMI increased by 12.74% to 63.83%, and the cotton inventory increased by 3.29% to 48.94% [35] CFTC Position Data - The net short positions of non - commercial and fund investors increased slightly [36]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the main cotton contract switched to the 01 contract, which temporarily stopped falling and consolidated sideways. The ICAC 8 - month report and USDA 7 - month report provide different 2025/26 annual production and consumption data. Customs data shows that textile and clothing exports in July decreased year - on - year, and cotton imports in June decreased significantly year - on - year while cotton yarn imports increased slightly. The Sino - US trade negotiation has been postponed, and the textile export data in July is not ideal. Currently in the consumption off - season, the "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear. The 01 contract is expected to be weak in the future [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 1) Previous Day Review This week, the main cotton contract switched to the 01 contract, which stopped falling and consolidated sideways. There are different data on cotton production, consumption, and inventory from various institutions. The Sino - US trade negotiation is postponed, and textile export data is not good [4]. 2) Daily Tips - **Likely Positive Factors**: Reduction of previous Sino - US mutual tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Postponement of trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, consumption off - season, overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 3) Today's Focus No specific content is provided in the report. 4) Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast (July)**: In 2024/25, the total global cotton production is 2578.3 million tons, with different production changes in various countries. Consumption is also different among countries, with a total of [not clearly stated]. Import and export volumes vary by country, and the global期末库存 is 1683.5 million tons [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 year, global production is 2590 million tons, consumption is 2560 million tons,期末库存 is 1710 million tons, and the global trade volume is 970 million tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is 57 - 94 cents/pound [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In 2025/26, China's cotton production is 625 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and期末库存 is 823 million tons. The domestic cotton 3128B average price is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound [13]. 5) Position Data No specific content is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall cotton market shows a trend of slight strength in a volatile pattern. The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to show a similar trend. The main influencing factors include the supply - demand relationship, policy environment, and weather conditions [8][22][38][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: With no significant changes in the macro - environment and little change in the fundamentals, the growth progress of US cotton is slightly slow, but the excellent - good rate is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. It is expected that the US cotton will show a slightly stronger trend in a volatile pattern [8]. - **US Cotton Growth**: As of August 3, the budding rate of US cotton was 87%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 5%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average. The excellent - good rate was 55%, 10 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average. The main producing areas are hot and dry, but the drought degree is low [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week ending July 31, the net cancellation of US cotton contracts was 0.39 tons, a decrease of 1.28 tons compared to the previous week. The cumulative contract volume was 267.39 tons, a 2% year - on - year decrease. The shipment volume was 4.14 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons compared to the previous week. The cumulative shipment volume was 253.82 tons, a 1% year - on - year increase [8]. - **CFTC Position**: As of August 1, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 2,841 to 22,767, a decrease of 60,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 2,574 to 44,397, equivalent to 1.01 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers on ICE increased to 50,228, equivalent to 1.14 million tons, a decrease of 2,640 compared to the previous week, a decrease of 60,000 tons compared to the previous week [8]. - **India**: As of August 1, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 10.587 million hectares, 256,000 hectares lower than the same period last year. The cotton planting target is 12.95 million hectares, and it is difficult to achieve this target. From July 31 to August 6, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - producing areas was 19mm, 45.5mm lower than the normal level and 51.9mm lower than the same period last year. The cumulative rainfall from June 1 to August 6 was 493.1mm, 22.4mm higher than the normal level. This week, the precipitation in India decreased significantly, mainly due to the decrease in precipitation in central India [8]. - **Brazil**: As of the week ending August 2, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 29.7%, an increase of 8 percentage points compared to the previous week, but 8% slower than the same period last year. The harvesting is slower than usual, mainly because the planting progress in Mato Grosso was affected by rain during the planting stage, resulting in a delay in harvesting. However, the cotton is reported to be in good growth condition, and it is expected that the quality of the cotton on the market will be good in the later stage. With the completion of corn and wheat harvesting, it is expected that the cotton supply on the market will accelerate [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Overall Situation**: The market's focus has gradually shifted to the demand side. The current commercial inventory on the supply side is still at a low level in the same period over the years, and the cotton supply may be slightly tight at the end of the year. On the demand side, as the off - season gradually transitions to the peak season, the current downstream demand shows no obvious changes. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will show a slightly stronger trend in a volatile pattern in the short term [22]. - **Supply Side**: As of mid - July, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 28,740 tons compared to the previous period, at a low level in the same period over the years. As of July 24, the cumulative sales volume of cotton in the 2024 season was 6.44 million tons, 1.026 million tons higher than the five - year average. As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.1571 million tons, a decrease of 148,500 tons (a decrease of 6.44%) compared to the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 1.4111 million tons, a decrease of 132,200 tons (a decrease of 8.57%) compared to the previous week, and the commercial cotton in the inland areas was 410,600 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons (an increase of 0.39%) compared to the previous week [22]. - **Demand Side**: Currently in the off - season of market consumption, as of mid - July, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises in China was 882,100 tons, a decrease of 20,900 tons compared to the previous period. The yarn inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 28.36 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 37.24 days. As of August 7, the operating load of spinning enterprises in the mainstream areas was 65.7%, a decrease of 1.35% compared to the previous week. The operating rate continued to decline. Although the cotton price decreased, the inland spinning enterprises still had no profit, and the situation of shutdown and reduction of shifts continued to increase. The profit of conventional yarn in Xinjiang was meager, and the operation was temporarily stable. The operating rate in the inland areas was 40 - 50%, and that in Xinjiang was maintained at 80 - 90% [22]. 3.3 Option Strategy - **Volatility Trend Judgment**: On August 8, 2025, the 10 - day historical volatility of cotton was 10.1107, and the volatility decreased compared to the previous day. - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: On August 8, 2025, the trading volume of both call and put options increased. It is recommended to sell put options [34][36]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: It is expected that the US cotton will show a slightly stronger trend in a volatile pattern in the future, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to show a similar trend [40]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [40]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: The report provides the historical data of the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 - month price difference trend [43][44]. - **Mid - end Situation**: It includes the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, the load of all - cotton grey fabric mills, the yarn inventory days, and the grey fabric inventory days [47]. - **Cotton Inventory**: The report shows the historical data of cotton commercial inventory, industrial inventory, and reserve inventory [49]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: It includes the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, and the basis of US cotton [52].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE) main contract 2509 decreased by 0.22%, closing at 13,640 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The positions and trading volume both decreased, with the main force gradually shifting to the next contract. The ICE cotton slightly declined, dropping 0.84% overnight to close at 66.36 cents/pound. Future attention should be paid to the meeting between the leaders of Russia and the United States, the pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the marginal impact of domestic policies [2]. - Internationally, due to factors such as the continuous loose global cotton supply - demand situation and the weak export demand for US cotton, the international cotton price generally maintains a weak consolidation trend. Domestically, although the de - stocking trend of cotton commercial inventory is good, it remains at a high level. The main contract is in the process of position - shifting. With the high probability of a good harvest of new cotton this year and the continued slump in demand, the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - The ZCE main contract 2509 of cotton decreased by 0.22%, closing at 13,640 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The positions and trading volume both decreased, and the main force is shifting contracts. The ICE cotton dropped 0.84% overnight, closing at 66.36 cents/pound [2]. 3.2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 8, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,582 (-95) sheets, including 8,252 (-77) registered warehouse receipts and 330 (-18) valid forecasts [3]. - In July, enterprises with an operating rate of 90% and above accounted for 38.78%, a decrease of 10.16 percentage points from the previous month; those with an operating rate of 61% - 89% accounted for 38.78%, an increase of 11.12 percentage points; those with an operating rate of 31% - 60% accounted for 22.45%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points; and no enterprises had an operating rate below 30%, the same as the previous month [4][5]. - In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.01% [5]. - In the week of July 31, the net signing of US 2024/25 - year land cotton was - 3,901 tons, and the shipment was 41,345 tons. There was no signing of Pima cotton, and the shipment was 2,041 tons. The carry - over to the 2025/26 new - year cotton was 135,715 tons. As of the same period, the net signing of 2025/26 - year land cotton was 24,789 tons, and the net signing of Pima cotton was 1,202 tons. The shipment of the new year has not started. In the week, 7,099 tons of 2026/27 - year land cotton were signed, and no Pima cotton was signed for the next year. China's net signing volume of 2025/26 - year land cotton was - 23 tons and the shipment was 0 tons. 522 tons of Pima cotton were signed, and no Pima cotton was shipped. 249 tons of new - year cotton resources were signed [5]. - As of July 31, 2025, China had cumulatively signed and imported 169,000 tons of US cotton in the 2024/25 year, accounting for 6.07% of the signed US cotton; the cumulative shipment of US cotton was 166,000 tons, accounting for 6.31% of the total US cotton shipment and 98.68% of China's signed volume [6]. - In June, China imported 560 million US dollars of intermediate products, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%, including 360 million US dollars of imported yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%, and 200 million US dollars of imported fabrics, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%. In terms of exports, in June, China exported 6.92 billion US dollars of intermediate products, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%, including 1.24 billion US dollars of exported yarn, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and 5.68 billion US dollars of exported fabrics, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [6]. 3.3. Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spreads, textile profits, cotton import profits, yarn import profits, warehouse receipt quantities, and non - commercial positions [8][9][11][12]. 3.4. Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the US Middle East envoy has arrived in Russia, and Trump has set August 8 as the "deadline" for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine war. The future policies and sanctions of the Trump administration after August 8 can be continuously monitored. The international cotton price maintains a weak consolidation trend due to factors such as loose supply - demand and weak export demand [14]. - Domestically, the cotton commercial inventory is de - stocking well but remains at a high level. The main contract is shifting positions. With the high probability of a good harvest of new cotton this year and weak demand, the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zhengmian's main 2509 contract rose 0.26%, closing at 13,690 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. US cotton rose slightly, with an overnight increase of 0.81%, closing at 67.16 cents/pound ICE. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. - Internationally, the deterioration of the US employment market may delay the Fed's policy shift, and investors are betting on an early start of the Fed's cyclical interest rate cuts. Due to factors such as the continuous loose global cotton supply - demand and weak US cotton export demand, international cotton prices remain in a weak consolidation state. Domestically, although the destocking trend of cotton commercial inventory is good, it is still at a high level. With high - yield new cotton this year and weak demand, the upward space for Zhengmian is limited [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - Zhengmian's main 2509 contract rose 0.26%, closing at 13,690 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. US cotton rose slightly, with an overnight increase of 0.81%, closing at 67.16 cents/pound ICE. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 6, 2025, the total number of cotton warehouse receipts was 8,812 (-99) sheets, including 8,464 (-99) registered warehouse receipts and 348 (+0) valid forecasts [3]. - In July 2025, the China Garment E - commerce Prosperity Index was 49.62, down 0.72 from the previous month. The sub - indexes such as production and e - commerce also declined. The garment e - commerce industry entered the off - season in July, and the prosperity index decreased [3][4]. - On August 6, the average arrival price of 3128 lint cotton nationwide was 15,122 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the price of 32s pure - cotton yarn ring - spun was 21,615 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton; the spinning profit was - 1,019.2 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton. Rising raw material cotton prices led to a decrease in the immediate spinning profit of textile enterprises [4]. - As of August 3, the budding rate of cotton in the US was 87%, 3 percentage points behind last year and 2 percentage points behind the five - year average [4]. - As of the week ending August 2, Egypt's net cotton export contracts were 615 tons, a 56.4% increase from the previous week, all of which were Giza 94 cotton [4]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report provides data charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, spreads, textile profits, cotton and yarn import profits, warehouse receipt quantities, and non - commercial positions, with data sources from Wind and Jinshi Futures Research Institute [1][5][6][9][11][13]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategies - Internationally, the US unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the labor participation rate continued to decline. The "pseudo - unemployment" phenomenon may delay the Fed's policy shift. International cotton prices are in a weak consolidation state due to loose supply - demand and weak US cotton export demand. Domestically, the cotton commercial inventory is destocking well but remains high. With potential high - yield new cotton and weak demand, the upward space for Zhengmian is limited [14].

Group 1: Main Views - This month, cotton prices first rose and then fell. The July USDA report on U.S. cotton was bearish, with increased planting area, slightly decreased yield per unit, and slightly increased ending stocks. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate, and the U.S. dollar index continued to rise, suppressing U.S. commodities. The weather in U.S. cotton-growing areas was favorable, and the export of U.S. cotton was weak. In China, the commercial cotton inventory was decreasing, imports were low, downstream demand was in the off - season, and the extension of Sino - U.S. tariff measures was negative for cotton textile exports. The new cotton in Xinjiang was in the full - bloom stage, and the high - temperature situation had eased [6]. - The strategy is to note that the good weather in U.S. cotton - growing areas and the extension of Sino - U.S. tariffs have pressured U.S. cotton to fluctuate weakly. In China, low imports and continuous consumption of commercial inventory have led to a relatively fast de - stocking process, but downstream demand is still weak, and Sino - U.S. tariffs continue to suppress terminal exports. With an increase in the planting area of new - season cotton and the alleviation of high - temperature in Xinjiang, Zhengzhou cotton first rose and then fell. Pay attention to weather changes in growing areas, and Zhengzhou cotton will continue to bottom out at a low level [6]. Group 2: Market Review - As of July 31, the ICE U.S. cotton 12 contract closed at 67.22 cents per pound, down 0.82 points from the previous month's close, with a monthly decline of 1.21%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,650 yuan per ton, down 90 points from the opening, with a monthly decline of 0.66% [8]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis External Market - U.S. Cotton - **Balance Sheet**: In 2025/26, the planting area is expected to be 10.12 million acres, a month - on - month increase of 250,000 acres; the harvest area is expected to be 8.66 million acres, an increase of 470,000 acres; the yield per unit is expected to be 809 pounds per acre, a decrease of 11 pounds per acre; the output is expected to be 14.6 million bales, an increase of 600,000 bales; the total supply is expected to be 18.71 million bales, an increase of 300,000 bales; the total consumption is expected to be 14.2 million bales, unchanged; the ending stocks are expected to be 4.6 million bales, an increase of 300,000 bales [15][16]. - **Goodness - to - Grade Ratio**: As of the week of July 27, the goodness - to - grade ratio of U.S. cotton was 55%, lower than the previous week but higher than the same period last year; the boll - setting rate was 44%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average; the squaring rate was 80%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [20]. - **Exports**: As of July 24, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the 2024/2025 season were 39,000 bales, compared with - 33,000 bales in the previous week; the net sales in the 2025/2026 season were 72,000 bales, compared with 133,000 bales in the previous week. The cumulative export sales were 1.0088 million bales, accounting for 93.31% of the July USDA report [24]. Domestic Market - **Spinning Mills' Operation**: As of July 31, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 66.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.48%. The operating rate continued to decline, downstream orders did not change significantly, and the sales of spinning mills were slow. The operating rate of inland spinning mills was about 50%, while that in Xinjiang remained stable [28]. - **Spinning Mills' Inventory**: As of July 31, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills in terms of days was 27.80 days, and the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 31.7 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.32% [31]. - **Cotton Inventory**: As of July 25, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.3056 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 151,900 tons (a decrease of 6.18%). As of July 31, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 5.07% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 335,400 tons [34].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international cotton price maintains a weak consolidation trend due to factors such as the continuous loosening of global cotton supply - demand and weak export demand for US cotton. The market sentiment is low because of the Sino - US tariff negotiation. - In the domestic market, although the commercial cotton inventory is de - stocking well, it is still at a high level. With the high possibility of a new cotton bumper harvest this year and the weak demand, the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited. [16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose 0.66%, closing at 13,675 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Affected by factors such as the extension of Sino - US tariff measures and the expectation of a bumper harvest, the US cotton fell 1.19% overnight, closing at 66.42 cents/pound on ICE. [2] 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - As of July 30, 2025, the total number of cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 9,032 (-123), including 8,684 (-123) registered warehouse receipts and 348 (+0) valid forecasts. - As of July 31, 2025, the national new cotton picking and delivery were basically completed. The national processing rate was 100%, the same as the previous year and the average of the past four years. The national sales rate was 97.1%, 7.3 percentage points higher than the previous year and 8.3 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. The cumulative sales of lint cotton were 6.483 million tons, an increase of 1.181 million tons compared with the previous year and 1.05 million tons compared with the average of the past four years. - Argentina's main cotton - producing area, Chaco Province, has completed the new cotton harvest, with the national harvest progress reaching 90% and the processing progress reaching 80%. - As of the week ending July 29, cotton speculators' net short positions increased by 1,467 lots to 52,972 lots. - As of July 24, 2025, the cumulative net signed export of US cotton in the 2024/25 season was 2.783 million tons, reaching 108.35% of the annual expected export volume, and the cumulative shipment was 2.593 million tons, with a shipment rate of 93.17%. [3][4][5] 3.3 Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton and yarn import profits, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions. [7][10][14][15] 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the US unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2% in July, and the labor participation rate continued to decline. The "pseudo - unemployment" phenomenon may delay the Fed's policy shift. Although the GDP increased by 3% in the second quarter, the deterioration of the employment market has made investors bet on the Fed to start a cycle of interest rate cuts in advance. - The international cotton price maintains a weak consolidation trend due to factors such as the continuous loosening of global cotton supply - demand and weak export demand for US cotton. The Sino - US tariff negotiation has reduced market enthusiasm. - Domestically, the commercial cotton inventory is de - stocking well but still at a high level. With the high possibility of a new cotton bumper harvest and weak demand, the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited. [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation", indicating that the short - term demand is average and the supply is in a loose pattern, and the market may fluctuate within a range [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the cotton market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the supply is bearish as the shortage of old - crop inventory is gradually priced in while the weak reality of new - crop bumper harvest is not. The demand is neutral due to over - capacity in spinning and high operating rates. The overall view is that the market will oscillate in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. The shortage of old - crop inventory is gradually priced in, and the weak reality of new - crop bumper harvest is not yet priced in [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. Spinning over - capacity and high operating rates lead to strong industrial demand for cotton [3] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The national commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the national industrial inventory remains at a high level [3] - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. This week, the basis of Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, with the basis of Xinjiang Shuang 28 spot at 1000 - 1200. The spread between September and January contracts of Zhengzhou cotton strengthened continuously this week [3] - **Profit**: Bearish. Spinning in Xinjiang has a slight loss, and spinning in the inland has a serious loss. The spread between yarn and cotton prices is running at a low level [3] - **Valuation**: Neutral. The current absolute price is at a neutral level in the past four years [3] - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for supporting the long - term demand for domestic cotton, which is bullish for far - month contracts. Internationally, Sino - US trade negotiations are in a short - term deadlock, and the tariff exemption period is extended again, which is bearish in terms of sentiment [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillation. Short - term demand is average, and supply is in a loose pattern, so the market may fluctuate within a range [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Lightly short the CF01 contract; Arbitrage: Reverse spread between CF1 - 5 contracts [3] 3.2 Cotton Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Upstream Planting - **Area Forecast**: The forecast shows an increase in cotton - planting area. The first survey in 2025 shows that the national cotton - planting area is expected to be 4159.9 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 1.88%, and the area in Xinjiang is expected to be 3678.8 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 3.18% [5][8][9] - **Yield per Unit Area**: The report provides historical data on cotton yield per unit area in the whole country and Xinjiang from 2013 to 2025. For example, in 2025, the national yield per unit area is expected to be 149.9 kg/mu, and that in Xinjiang is expected to be 158.5 kg/mu [10] 3.2.2 Mid - stream Situation - **Inventory**: There is inventory accumulation of finished products. The raw material and finished - product inventories of yarn mills and weaving mills are presented in the form of historical data of multiple years [18][19] - **Factory Load**: The operating rate is declining. The loads of pure - cotton yarn mills and all - cotton grey fabric mills are shown in historical data of multiple years [25][26] - **Yarn Mill Profit**: There are losses. The immediate spinning profit and the spot spread between yarn and cotton are presented in historical data of multiple years [29][30] 3.2.3 Downstream Situation - **Inventory**: At a seasonal high. The inventories and finished - product inventories of textile and clothing enterprises above designated size are presented in historical data of multiple years [32][33] 3.2.4 Import and Export Situation - **Domestic Import**: The report shows historical data on the monthly and cumulative imports of domestic cotton and cotton yarn from 2018 to 2025 [37] - **US Cotton Export** - **Overall**: The signing volume is at the lowest in recent years, and the shipment is seasonally increasing [39] - **To China**: Significantly decreased year - on - year, at a low level in the same period [48] - **To Pakistan**: Significantly increased year - on - year, at a high level in the same period [54] - **To Vietnam**: The signing and shipment volumes have significantly increased year - on - year [60] - **To Bangladesh**: The shipment volume has decreased year - on - year [67] 3.3 Cotton Capital - related Data - **Zhengzhou Cotton Basis**: Oscillating at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton 09 and 01 contracts is presented in historical data of multiple years [73][74] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Spread**: The spreads between Zhengzhou cotton 09 - 01 and 01 - 05 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [77] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Position**: The position of the 09 contract has declined rapidly. The positions of Zhengzhou cotton 09 and 01 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [79][80] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipt**: The virtual - to - real ratio of the 09 contract has declined rapidly. The total number of warehouse receipts and forecasts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the 09 contract are presented in historical data of multiple years [84][85] - **Management Fund's Net Long Position in US Cotton Futures**: The net long positions and the proportion of long positions of management funds in US cotton futures and options are presented in historical data of multiple years [91][92] - **US Cotton Spread**: In a deep contango state. The spreads between US cotton 05 - 07 and 07 - 12 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [95][96]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, Zhengzhou cotton prices first rose and then fell. As of July 31, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 closed at 13,650 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 0.66%. The main contract of cotton yarn closed at 19,770 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 1.10%. The main contract of US cotton closed at 67.22 cents/pound, down 0.82 cents/pound for the month, a decrease of 1.21% [4]. - The low - inventory logic of the 09 contract has ended, and the 01 contract faces the pressure of new cotton listing. After a rapid price correction, there is a short - term need for stabilization and adjustment. In terms of supply, the weather in Xinjiang this year is favorable for a bumper harvest, but recent high - temperature weather may have an adverse impact on the quality of new cotton. In terms of demand, the lack of progress in Sino - US negotiations has put pressure on US cotton prices, and the short - term import pressure is not large. The supply - demand tightness still exists. Coupled with the expansion of ginning factory capacity, there may be an expectation of抢购 if the price remains rigid. Therefore, cotton prices may be more likely to rise than fall from August to September. Overall, long positions can be opportunistically established near 13,200 - 13,600 for the 01 contract [4][22]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July, Zhengzhou cotton prices first rose and then fell. As of July 31, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 closed at 13,650 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 0.66%. The main contract of cotton yarn closed at 19,770 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 1.10%. The main contract of US cotton closed at 67.22 cents/pound, down 0.82 cents/pound for the month, a decrease of 1.21% [4][8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Weather impact is limited, and there is an expectation of a bumper cotton harvest - According to a survey in June by the International Cotton Market Monitoring System, the weather in major cotton - producing areas is favorable for cotton budding and boll - setting, with relatively few disasters. It is estimated that the new cotton yield per mu in 2025 will be 158.7 kg, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The national actual sown area of cotton in 2025 is 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [16]. (2) Downstream consumption is stable, and attention should be paid to Sino - US negotiations - From January to June, the cumulative export value of clothing and clothing accessories in China was 73.466 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.66%. The cumulative export of textile yarns, fabrics and products from January to June was 70.531 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.60%. From January to June, the cumulative retail sales of clothing in China was 534.13 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.59%. From January to June, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles in China was 743.59 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.62%. As of August 12, the deadline for the postponement of Sino - US tariffs is approaching. Currently, Sino - US negotiations are centered around further delaying tariffs. It is expected that tariffs will most likely be postponed, but there is still a long way to go before a framework agreement is reached. If there is no progress, market sentiment will be bearish [17]. 3. Future Outlook - The low - inventory logic of the 09 contract has ended, and the 01 contract faces the pressure of new cotton listing. After a rapid price correction, there is a short - term need for stabilization and adjustment. In terms of supply, the weather in Xinjiang this year is favorable for a bumper harvest, but recent high - temperature weather may have an adverse impact on the quality of new cotton. In terms of demand, the lack of progress in Sino - US negotiations has put pressure on US cotton prices, and the short - term import pressure is not large. The supply - demand tightness still exists. Coupled with the expansion of ginning factory capacity, there may be an expectation of抢购 if the price remains rigid. Therefore, cotton prices may be more likely to rise than fall from August to September. Overall, long positions can be opportunistically established near 13,200 - 13,600 for the 01 contract [4][22].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The macro - atmosphere has weakened, and the commodity market has declined across the board. Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton) funds have reduced positions and exited the market. The short - term price of cotton is expected to fluctuate weakly. Although the cotton fundamentals are stable, with low commercial inventories providing some support, the lack of upward - driving factors and the weakening technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook. For downstream textile enterprises, they can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce raw material procurement costs when prices fall [2][3][46]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets - **Price Changes of Major Commodities and Cotton**: From July 25 to August 1, the CRB commodity price index decreased by 2.3% (from 302.25 to 295.28 points), the ICE cotton futures' December contract dropped by 2.65% (from 68.23 to 66.42 cents/pound), and the main 09 contract of ZCE cotton fell by 585 yuan/ton to 13585 yuan/ton, with a reduction of 179,000 lots in positions to 326,000 lots. Some commodities like gold and crude oil rose, while agricultural products generally declined [2][7][10]. - **Imported Cotton Prices**: The CNF quotes of imported cotton in major ports decreased. For example, the price of US E/MOTM decreased by 0.6 cents/pound, and that of Brazilian M decreased by 1.9 cents/pound [9]. - **Domestic Cotton and Yarn Market**: Domestic cotton spot and futures prices dropped significantly. In the cotton yarn market, downstream demand was weak, and transactions slowed down. The immediate profit of spinning enterprises improved, and the cash - flow loss of inland spinning enterprises shrank to less than 500 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Second Part: Domestic Market Situation - **Textile Raw Material Prices**: On August 1, compared with July 25, the price trends of raw materials such as polyester staple fiber, viscose, and cotton were mixed. For example, polyester staple fiber decreased by 35 yuan/ton, while viscose increased by 10 yuan/ton [14]. - **Yarn Prices**: The price of domestic and imported yarns generally declined. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns narrowed, and the price difference between domestic cotton and international cotton (under sliding - scale duty) widened [18][20][26]. 3.3 Third Part: ZCE Cotton Market Analysis - **ZCE Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Forecasts**: As of August 1, the registered warehouse receipts of ZCE cotton were 8807 lots (378,000 tons), with 348 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 393,000 tons, down from 419,000 tons on July 25 [30]. - **ZCE Cotton Futures - Spot Price Difference**: The price difference between ZCE cotton futures and the CCI3128B index widened. The price difference between ZCE cotton and ICE cotton (under sliding - scale duty) also increased [32][33]. - **ZCE Cotton Price Analysis**: Macroeconomic factors and policies at home and abroad have an impact on cotton prices. The overall growth of US cotton plants is good, while India's cotton sowing progress lags behind last year. The inspection of Xinjiang - related products has rebounded. Technically, the indicators of ZCE cotton have weakened [34][35][39]. 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Export Dynamics**: From July 18 - 24, the net signing of US 2024/25 - year land cotton decreased significantly compared with the previous week but increased significantly compared with the four - week average. The shipment of land cotton increased. The net signing and shipment of Pima cotton showed different trends. New - year contracts were also signed [42]. - **ICE Cotton Futures Analysis**: On August 1, the ICE cotton futures' December contract decreased by 2.65% compared with July 25. Technically, the indicators have weakened [44]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions For downstream textile enterprises, when the raw material price drops, they can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of raw material procurement [46].