- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 27.71 CNY, compared to the current price of 22.31 CNY [6][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the limited scale of the H-share refinancing will have a minor impact on short-term shareholder returns, but it is expected to create a new growth driver for the company's international business in the long term, thereby expanding its development space [2][13]. - The company plans to raise approximately 61 billion HKD through H-share placement and convertible bonds, which will be fully allocated to increase capital for its overseas subsidiaries [13]. - The report adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 14.201 billion, 15.568 billion, and 16.567 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on capital market recovery [13]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 23.3 billion CNY - 2024A: 27.199 billion CNY (up 16.7%) - 2025E: 35.911 billion CNY (up 32.0%) - 2026E: 38.682 billion CNY (up 7.7%) - 2027E: 40.430 billion CNY (up 4.5%) [4][14] - Net profit (attributable to shareholders) is projected as: - 2023A: 6.978 billion CNY - 2024A: 9.637 billion CNY (up 38.1%) - 2025E: 14.201 billion CNY (up 47.4%) - 2026E: 15.568 billion CNY (up 9.6%) - 2027E: 16.567 billion CNY (up 6.4%) [4][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.92 CNY in 2023 to 2.17 CNY in 2027 [4][14]. Market Data - The company has a total market capitalization of 169.686 billion CNY and a total share capital of 7.606 million shares, with 5.904 million shares in circulation [7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 24.37 in 2023 to 10.26 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [4][14].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

- The report discusses a rotation model for micro-cap stocks, which uses the relative net value of micro-cap stocks to the "Mao Index" as a key indicator. If the relative net value is above its 243-day moving average, it suggests investing in micro-cap stocks; otherwise, it suggests investing in the Mao Index. Additionally, the 20-day closing price slope of both indices is used to determine potential style shifts. When the slopes diverge and one is positive, the model recommends investing in the index with a positive slope[17][24][29] - A timing risk control indicator is constructed based on the 10-year government bond yield (threshold: 0.3) and the volatility crowding degree of micro-cap stocks (threshold: 0.55). If either indicator reaches its threshold, a closing signal is triggered[17][24][29] - The report evaluates eight major stock selection factors across different stock pools (All A-shares, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000). Among these, technical factors (IC mean: 9.30%) and volatility factors (IC mean: 6.86%) performed well, while consensus expectation factors (IC mean: -3.20%) and market capitalization factors (IC mean: -2.71%) showed weaker performance[44][45][46] - For convertible bonds, the report constructs quantitative bond selection factors, including equity-related factors (e.g., equity growth and financial quality) and valuation factors (e.g., parity and floor premium rates). The IC mean and long-short portfolio net value of these factors are tracked regularly[53][54][57]

Core Viewpoint - China Ping An's stock price surged to a five-year high, positively impacting the Hong Kong market, particularly Ping An Good Doctor (1833.HK), which saw a significant increase of 9%, reaching its highest level since October 2025 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Ping An Good Doctor is a key player in the "value re-evaluation" process, benefiting from its strategic position within the Ping An ecosystem, particularly in health and elderly care services [1] - The stock price increase of Ping An Good Doctor reflects a broader trend in the internet healthcare sector, indicating strong investor confidence [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Morgan Stanley's report from December 2025 highlighted Ping An's potential to capitalize on growth opportunities in personal finance, healthcare, and elderly care, raising its target price to 89 HKD [1] - Analysts suggest that Ping An Good Doctor is positioned to experience a "Davis Double Play" in terms of performance and valuation, particularly within the context of China's aging economy narrative [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the A-share market and investment strategies for 2026, focusing on various asset classes and sectors. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Style and Sentiment** - In January 2026, the growth value dimension maintains a preference for value style but slightly leans towards growth style. Investor sentiment favors value style, while market momentum shows a slight advantage for growth style [3][4][5] 2. **Asset Allocation** - The outlook for domestic stock assets is relatively positive, with a neutral stance on commodities and a cautious approach towards bonds. The macroeconomic indicators suggest a cautious view on stocks and commodities, while being neutral on bonds [3][5][8] 3. **Industry Rotation Model** - The current state is characterized by rapid rotation, with December's model showing a 0.7% underperformance against the benchmark. Recommended sectors for January 2026 include banking, building materials, computers, comprehensive finance, and coal [3][5] 4. **Quantitative Strategy Performance** - The aggressive growth strategy, particularly the growth trend resonance stock selection strategy, achieved a 46.4% annual return, outperforming by 13 percentage points. The small-cap mining strategy yielded the highest returns at 86% [6][9] 5. **Market Conditions and Strategy Implications** - The current market is experiencing high differentiation, which typically benefits value and dividend strategies. January is noted for the dense disclosure of annual reports, presenting potential investment opportunities if earnings forecasts exceed expectations [9] 6. **Machine Learning and Derivative Models** - The quantitative strategy team has developed various models based on reinforcement learning and deep learning, achieving stable performance. The option timing model has a high success rate, with the sentiment indicator yielding a cumulative return of 37.47% since its launch [10] 7. **Technical Analysis and Market Signals** - Technical indicators show mixed signals, with four bearish and one bullish signal among major indices, suggesting potential resistance in the current market [8] 8. **Sector Recommendations** - The recommended sectors for January 2026 include banking, building materials, computers, comprehensive finance, and coal, with a shift away from previously favored sectors like non-ferrous metals [5] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The quantitative strategy team is actively engaging clients with subscription services for their sentiment indicators, indicating a focus on client engagement and market responsiveness [10]

- Model Name: Timing System Model; Model Construction Idea: The model uses the distance between the long-term moving average (120 days) and the short-term moving average (20 days) to distinguish the overall market environment[2][6][11] - Model Construction Process: The model calculates the distance between the 20-day moving average and the 120-day moving average. The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 6298 points and the 120-day moving average at 6090 points. The difference between the two lines is 3.41%, and the absolute value of the distance continues to be greater than 3%, indicating that the market is in an upward trend[2][6][11] - Model Evaluation: The model effectively identifies the market's upward trend, providing a positive signal for market timing[2][6][11] - Model Name: Industry Trend Allocation Model; Model Construction Idea: The model identifies industry trends and allocates based on medium-term reversal expectations and sector performance[2][5][7] - Model Construction Process: The model signals to focus on service consumption sectors such as tourism and media based on medium-term reversal expectations. The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on AI applications and commercial aerospace. The industry trend model shows that the communication, industrial metals, and energy storage sectors continue their upward trend[2][5][7] - Model Evaluation: The model provides clear guidance on sector allocation, helping investors to focus on promising sectors[2][5][7] - Model Name: Position Management Model; Model Construction Idea: The model suggests stock allocation based on valuation indicators and short-term trends[5][7] - Model Construction Process: The model uses the PE and PB ratios of the WIND All A Index. The PE ratio is near the 90th percentile, indicating a relatively high valuation, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, indicating a moderate level. Based on these indicators and short-term trends, the model suggests an 80% stock allocation for absolute return products[5][7] - Model Evaluation: The model provides a balanced approach to stock allocation, considering both valuation and market trends[5][7] Model Backtest Results - Timing System Model, Moving Average Distance: 3.41%[2][6][11] - Timing System Model, Market Trend Line: 6262 points[2][6][11] - Timing System Model, Profit Effect: 2.71%[2][6][11] - Position Management Model, PE Ratio: 90th percentile[5][7] - Position Management Model, PB Ratio: 50th percentile[5][7] - Position Management Model, Stock Allocation: 80%[5][7]

- Short-term volume models for some broad-based indices turned bullish[1][3][11] - Feature-based institutional model turned bullish[1][3][11] - Feature-based volume model remained neutral[1][3][11] - Intelligent algorithm model for CSI 300 remained neutral, while for CSI 500 turned bullish[1][3][11] - Mid-term limit-up and limit-down model turned bullish[1][3][12] - Up-down return difference model turned bullish for all broad-based indices[1][3][12] - Calendar effect model remained neutral[1][3][12] - Long-term momentum model turned bullish for some broad-based indices[1][3][13] - Comprehensive A-share V3 model turned bullish[1][3][13] - Comprehensive A-share Guozheng 2000 model turned bullish[1][3][13] - Mid-term turnover amplitude model for Hong Kong stocks turned bullish[1][3][14] - Hang Seng Index up-down return difference model remained neutral[1][3][14]

A H 股市场周度观察（12 月第 5 周） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 03 日 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 是结构性切换？》2025-08-10 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（8 月第 1 周）》2025-08-04 内容目录 | A H 股市场周度观察（12月第 5 周） . | | --- | | 一、Ａ股: | | 二、港股： | | 风险捉示 … | 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 - 2 - 3、《7 月政治局会议对市场影响几 何？》2025-08-03 分析师：徐驰 报告摘要 一、A 股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：张文宇 【市场走势】本周 A 股市场表现分化，主要宽基指数涨跌不一。上证指数微涨 0.13%， 但深证成指、创业板指和北证 50 均有所下跌，其中北证 50 跌幅最大，下跌 1.55%。 风格指数方面，中盘价值和小盘成长表现较好。行业方面，综合金融、石油石化和国 防军工领涨，而商贸零 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]