1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of laying hens remains at a high level, with the national inventory of laying hens in September reaching 1.368 billion, higher than expected. The demand is generally weak. In the short - term, without significant improvement, egg prices are expected to be weak. Near - month contracts are likely to oscillate weakly, and one can consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas is 2.8 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.09 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin. Most of the mainstream egg prices across the country have declined [6]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In September, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises in September was 39.2 million. It is estimated that the inventory of laying hens from October 2025 to January 2026 will be approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [7]. - **Hen Culling**: In the week of October 16, the number of culled hens in the main producing areas was 20.32 million, a 2.8% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 499 days, the same as the previous week [7]. - **Egg Sales**: As of October 17, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7,374 tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous week [8]. - **Profit**: As of October 17, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.3 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 12, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 0.51 yuan/hen, a decrease of 2.79 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.45 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, a decrease of 0.23 days from the previous week [8]. - **Culled Hen Price**: The average price of culled hens in the main producing areas is 4.19 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [8]. 3.2 Trading Logic The supply of laying hens is high, and the demand is generally weak. Without significant improvement in the short - term, egg prices are expected to be weak, and near - month contracts are likely to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided**: Consider closing out previous short positions to take profits [10]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10].

Group 1: Company Overview and Strategy - The company aims to optimize the scale, flexibility, and product structure of the egg-laying chicken industry, focusing on sustainable and healthy development [3] - Key business areas include core business of chick production, and star businesses such as young chickens, premix feed, non-cage eggs, and new food products [3] - The company has successfully imported over 60,000 grandparent egg-laying chickens from the U.S. between March and May 2024, marking a significant update to its breeding stock [4] Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - The young chicken industry is experiencing steady growth, with an estimated output of approximately 560 million young chickens in 2024 [5] - The company sold 151.8 million commercial chicks in the first half of 2025, a 63.46% increase year-on-year, with an expected annual capacity of 300 million chicks [8] - The market share for chick products is approximately 25% as of the first half of 2025 [8] Group 3: Financial Insights - Sales revenue fluctuated in September 2025 due to overall supply-demand dynamics in the egg-laying chicken industry, with cautious expectations from breeding units [6] - The egg price experienced seasonal fluctuations, with a notable increase during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, followed by a slight decline due to market adjustments [6] Group 4: Management and Governance - The company is transitioning from a founder-led management model to a professional manager model to enhance governance and operational efficiency [7] - The governance structure aims to separate ownership from management, ensuring clear responsibilities and checks and balances [7] Group 5: ESG and Sustainability Initiatives - The company implements a green development strategy, focusing on resource conservation and environmental protection, while adhering to national and local environmental regulations [7] - Animal welfare is prioritized through a "high-floor flat raising" model, enhancing both animal welfare and production performance [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists, pressuring egg prices to decline, with prices in some regions dropping to feed costs. Attention should be paid to the intensity and scale of hen culling driven by low prices [3]. - In the long term, the continuous increase in egg - laying hen farming scale may lengthen the price bottom cycle. Wait patiently for the over - culling in the farming sector to drive the capacity - reduction process [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market News - During the holiday, egg prices fell unexpectedly, and the futures market opened with a significant gap down [1]. Spot Performance - During the holiday, the strong supply and weak demand in the egg market pressured egg prices to drop significantly. On October 8, the price of Hebei Guantao pink eggs was 2.49 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.35 yuan per jin compared to September 30 [3]. Futures Performance - Today, the near - month contract of egg futures opened with a significant gap down. The 2511 contract opened at 2890 yuan per 500 kg, a decline of 4.24%. As of the time of writing, the market was at 2902 yuan per 500 kg, while the far - month contracts were relatively stable [3]. Analysis Logic - Short - to - medium term: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues, and egg prices are under pressure to decline, with some areas reaching feed costs. Focus on the intensity and scale of hen culling driven by low prices [3]. - Long term: The continuous increase in egg - laying hen farming scale may lengthen the price bottom cycle. Wait for the over - culling in the farming sector to drive capacity reduction [3]. Trading Strategy - Before the holiday, it was continuously suggested to maintain a short - selling strategy until large - scale concentrated hen culling occurs, and it was recommended to hold previous short positions. - Currently, the Hebei spot price has fallen below 2.5 yuan per jin. It was suggested in today's morning report that the market might open with a gap down, and previous short positions can continue to be held. It is recommended to consider gradually taking profits on dips [3].

Core Viewpoint - The chicken market in September experienced a divergence between the prices of old hens and eggs due to strong supply and weak demand, with expectations of a slight decline in average prices for old hens in October before a minor rebound [1][6]. Supply Side Analysis - The number of old hens awaiting elimination remained high in October, leading to price pressure, especially in early October due to concentrated slaughtering plans around the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [1][6]. - The average monthly slaughter volume of old hens increased by over 11% in September, contributing to significant market pressure [3]. - The total stock of laying hens reached 1.365 billion by the end of August, exceeding normal levels, which, combined with the gradual elimination of older hens, increased supply [3]. Demand Side Analysis - Demand for old hen products was weak, influenced by the economic environment, with many slaughterhouses operating at around 70% capacity and holding frozen inventory, leading to low purchasing intentions [4]. - The presence of alternative protein sources, such as pork and fish, further reduced consumer demand for old hens [4][7]. - A temporary boost in demand is expected in early October due to holiday effects, but overall demand is anticipated to decline post-holidays, limiting price recovery [7]. Price Outlook - The price of old hens is expected to experience a "decline followed by a slight increase" pattern in October, with average prices projected to be between 4.30 and 4.40 yuan per jin, reflecting a slight decrease from September [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic egg-laying chicken farming industry has transitioned from a loss to profitability in September due to rising egg prices and a slight decrease in costs, but the sustainability of this profitability is uncertain as seasonal demand may weaken towards the end of September and into October [1][3][9] Summary by Sections Profitability Trends - From May to August, the egg-laying chicken farming sector experienced losses, with only a brief period of profitability in late July 2025. However, by early September, profitability was achieved, with an average profit of 0.26 yuan per kilogram of eggs, reversing a loss of 0.13 yuan per kilogram [3][9] - The average profit in September has increased by 0.25 yuan compared to August, marking a significant turnaround from the previous four months of losses [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Demand for eggs has increased due to the start of the school year and the upcoming holidays, leading to a notable rise in egg prices, which increased by nearly 13% compared to the average in August [4][9] - Despite high egg supply levels, the demand boost has allowed for profitability in egg-laying operations [3][4] Cost Factors - The cost of feed, a major factor affecting profitability, has slightly decreased, with the average feed cost dropping by 0.01 yuan per kilogram compared to August [6][9] - While corn prices have seen a slight increase, soybean meal prices remain low, contributing to the overall reduction in feed costs [6] Future Outlook - The outlook for the egg-laying industry suggests that while demand may initially support prices, a decline in demand post-holidays could lead to price drops and potential profitability challenges [8][9] - It is anticipated that the average profit margin may compress to between 0.10 and 0.20 yuan per kilogram if demand weakens significantly, with the possibility of returning to losses if conditions do not improve [9]

Core Viewpoint - The egg futures market has shown signs of recovery after hitting a low in August, driven by seasonal demand and expectations of culling hens, but the market remains in a prolonged state of competition with high supply pressure and uncertain capacity reduction [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of September 17, the main egg futures contract closed at 3122 yuan per 500 kg, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.32% [1]. - The demand for stocking ahead of the double festival and expectations regarding hen culling have contributed to the recent rebound in prices [1][4]. - The current high inventory of laying hens, which stood at 1.365 billion in August, represents a 5.9% year-on-year increase, indicating persistent supply pressure [2]. Group 2: Production and Cost Factors - The average laying hen cycle has extended to 2-2.5 years, with the current profit cycle lasting 45 months, which is longer than usual [2]. - The feed conversion ratio has improved, with leading farms achieving a ratio below 1.9, while most smallholders maintain a ratio between 2.1 and 2.15 [3]. - Cost control measures, such as the use of alternative feed ingredients, have contributed to maintaining profit margins in egg production [3]. Group 3: Culling and Supply Outlook - The market is experiencing intensified competition, with uncertainty surrounding the timing and extent of hen culling, which is crucial for balancing supply and demand [4][5]. - Current data indicates that the average age of culled hens is around 495 days, suggesting that the market has not yet reached a point of excessive culling [5]. - Projections indicate that the peak supply growth may occur in September, with a potential shift to negative year-on-year growth by December [5]. Group 4: Profitability and Market Sentiment - As of early September, the profitability of egg production has shifted from a loss of 0.13 yuan per kg to a profit of 0.26 yuan, marking a significant turnaround [7]. - The current market sentiment reflects a rebound in prices due to an overload of bearish expectations, rather than a fundamental reversal in the market [7]. - The high inventory levels and existing profitability are likely to hinder rapid capacity reduction in the near term [7].

Core Viewpoint - The egg production industry has transitioned from a loss to profitability in September due to rising egg prices and a slight decrease in costs, but this profitability may not be sustainable as seasonal demand weakens towards the end of September and into October [1][8]. Group 1: Profitability and Market Dynamics - Egg production turned profitable in September after four months of losses, with the average profit rising to 0.30-0.40 yuan per kilogram by mid-September [1][8]. - The average price of eggs increased significantly, with a cumulative rise of nearly 13% by September 11, driven by heightened demand from schools and food processing companies [3][8]. - The cost of feed ingredients showed a slight decrease, with the average feed cost dropping by 0.01 yuan per kilogram compared to August, contributing to the improved profitability of egg production [5][8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The supply of laying hens reached a three-year high at the end of August, but is expected to stabilize or slightly decrease in September, which may exert downward pressure on egg prices [3][7]. - Demand for eggs is expected to rise initially due to school meal programs and pre-holiday stockpiling, but is likely to decline after the holidays, potentially leading to a decrease in egg prices [7][8]. - The market is currently experiencing a balance of high supply and increasing demand, but the seasonal nature of demand suggests that profitability may be temporary [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The profitability of egg production is characterized as seasonal, with expectations of reduced profit margins to 0.10-0.20 yuan per kilogram as demand weakens and costs stabilize [8]. - The potential for a return to losses in egg production exists if demand significantly decreases post-holiday, indicating that the current profitability may not be sustainable in the long term [8].

Core Viewpoint - The intelligent chicken farming project in Yongzhou, Hunan, is accelerating the upgrade of the egg production industry through automation and standardization, leading to increased income for farmers and enhanced agricultural efficiency [1][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project involves the construction of "smart villas" for egg-laying hens, featuring automated environmental control, precise feeding systems, and intelligent egg collection [1][2]. - The first phase of the project has a total investment of 60 million yuan, with plans for seven smart egg-laying houses, expected to produce 220 million eggs annually, generating over 120 million yuan in annual revenue and providing over 100 jobs [2][3]. - The first house with 100,000 hens has been put into production, and the second house is currently being equipped, with a total of 600,000 hens planned for full production by the end of the year [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The chicken farming industry has become a leading sector in modern agriculture in the Cold Water Beach area, supported by policies that strengthen the industry foundation and enhance production efficiency through technological upgrades [3][5]. - Currently, there are over 120 large-scale chicken farms in the Cold Water Beach area, with a total chicken stock exceeding 7 million, producing 7 million eggs daily and generating an annual value of 2.5 billion yuan [5].

农业农村部发布监测数据显示，9月9日，全国农产品批发市场鸡蛋批发平均价格为7.85元/公斤， 比7月6日的6.82元/公斤上涨15.1%。 "最近几个星期，鸡蛋价格震荡运行，波动比较频繁，是由多种因素共同对蛋价形成拉扯造成 的。"北京新发地农产品批发市场统计部经理刘通说。一方面，前期高温酷暑，中小养鸡场蛋鸡产蛋量 下降，对鸡蛋价格产生拉抬作用。临近中秋假期，食品企业开始增大月饼供应，用蛋量明显增加，对蛋 价形成拉抬。另一方面，规模养鸡场鸡蛋产量并没有下降，而价格低于中小养鸡场，对整体鸡蛋价格形 成压制。此外，前期蛋商手中还存有大量鸡蛋，蛋价上涨，蛋商库存鸡蛋会加大出库量，又制约了蛋价 上涨幅度。不过，尽管蛋价波动比较频繁，总体走势仍处于波动上行中。 9月5日，北京新发地农产品批发市场鸡蛋批发平均价为7.16元/公斤，比8月29日的7.02元/公斤上涨 1.99%，比8月5日的6.23元/公斤上涨14.93%，比去年同期(2024年9月5日)的10.34元/公斤下降30.75%。周 环比小幅上涨，月环比大幅上涨，年同比大幅下降。 就9月上旬表现看，预计蛋价在9月份还会小幅上涨。综合来讲，进入三季度后，蛋价缓慢上 ...

鸡蛋价格为何上涨动力不足？中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所副研究员朱宁认为，主要原因在于 供需两个方面，尤其是供给方面。供给方面，前期养殖场户雏鸡补栏量较高，导致新开产蛋鸡较多，叠 加养殖场户看好三季度市场行情，稳产保产意愿较强，蛋鸡产能仍居高位。而新建或扩建大规模养鸡场 持续投产，小幅推高三季度全国在产蛋鸡存栏量。虽然高温高湿天气影响蛋鸡产能，产蛋率和蛋重双 降，但近些年蛋鸡养殖管理水平增强，难以撼动鸡蛋高供给态势。需求方面，消费带动有限，而且今年 中秋节较往年偏晚，食品企业备货启动也相对较晚。监测数据显示，7月份和8月份鸡蛋集贸市场交易量 比去年同期小幅下降。综合来看，蛋价上涨缺乏支撑和拉力。 刘通表示，目前鸡蛋供应比较充足，不仅产量充足，库存量也充足，蛋价不具备持续上涨的条件。 对蛋鸡养殖行业来说，鸡蛋价格在7月中上旬可能已经见底，后期将以震荡运行为主。进入9月份以后， 蛋价持续小幅上涨。9月9日鸡蛋批发价比9月2日上涨了3.43%。朱宁预计，随着中秋、国庆双节临近， 鸡蛋消费将得到有效提振，拉动蛋价上涨，蛋鸡养殖有望实现盈利。 农业农村部发布监测数据显示，9月9日，全国农产品批发市场鸡蛋批发平均价格 ...