Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Lido Factors**: Strong macro - sentiment support with an increased expectation of Fed rate cuts leading to a general rise in the non - ferrous market; marginal improvement in stainless steel demand, continuous decline in inventory, and increased production scheduling supporting demand [3] - **Negative Factors**: Significant inventory accumulation with LME and Shanghai nickel inventories reaching new highs, prominent supply - surplus pressure; strong expectation of loose nickel ore supply, weakening cost support, and increased downward pressure on prices [3] - **Trading Consultation Viewpoint**: Suggest short - term range trading and pay attention to changes in the ore end and demand [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract is 121,850 yuan/ton, up 1,220 yuan or 1.01% week - on - week; SHFE nickel continuous contract 1 is 121,070 yuan/ton, up 1,240 yuan or 1.03%; SHFE nickel continuous contract 2 is 121,170 yuan/ton, up 1,170 yuan or 0.98%; SHFE nickel continuous contract 3 is 121,330 yuan/ton, up 1,110 yuan or 0.98%; LME nickel 3M is 15,130 dollars/ton, up 180 dollars or 0.92%. The trading volume is 96,611 lots, down 23,911 lots or 19.84% week - on - week; the open interest is 81,103 lots, down 14,364 lots or 15.1%; the warehouse receipt quantity is 20,687 tons, down 687 tons or 3.21%; the basis of the main contract is - 1,590 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan or 33.61% [4] - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The closing price of stainless steel main contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan or 1% week - on - week; stainless steel continuous contract 1 is 12,935 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan or 1.02%; stainless steel continuous contract 2 is 12,995 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan or 1.09%; stainless steel continuous contract 3 is 13,080 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan or 1.08%. The trading volume is 85,499 lots, down 36,750 lots or 30.06% week - on - week; the open interest is 81,584 lots, down 5,891 lots or 6.73%; the warehouse receipt quantity is 103,226 tons, up 240 tons or 0.23%; the basis of the main contract is 320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 3.03% [4] - **Nickel Spot**: The price of Jinchuan nickel is 123,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.04%; imported nickel is 121,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.04%; 1 electrolytic nickel is 122,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.04%; nickel beans are 123,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.04%; electrowon nickel is 121,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.04% [4] - **Inventory**: Domestic social nickel inventory is 39,486 tons, down 795 tons; LME nickel inventory is 211,212 tons, down 240 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 966.2 thousand tons, down 1.2 thousand tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 33,415 tons, up 182 tons [4][6] Graphical Information - **Nickel Futures**: Graphs show the closing prices of SHFE nickel futures main contract and LME nickel (3 - month) electronic - trading contract from February 2024 to June 2025 [7][8] - **Stainless Steel Futures**: A graph shows the closing price of stainless steel futures main contract from February 2024 to June 2025 [9][10] - **Nickel Spot**: A graph shows the average prices of nickel beans, 1 imported nickel, and SMM 1 electrolytic nickel from February 2024 to June 2025 [11][12] - **Supply and Inventory**: Graphs show China's refined nickel monthly production, total monthly supply of primary nickel including imports, domestic social nickel inventory (nickel plates + nickel beans), LME nickel inventory, price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB), China's port nickel ore inventory, China's 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price, Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (duty - paid at port) price, China's and Indonesia's nickel - iron monthly production from different time periods [13][14][15] - **Downstream Products**: Graphs show the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, its premium over primary nickel (plates), the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the profit of producing electrowon nickel from externally - purchased nickel sulfate in China, China's monthly production of nickel sulfate, the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors, the profit margin of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils, stainless steel monthly production, and stainless steel inventory from different time periods [22][23][26]

Group 1 - The event "Walking into ETF Component Companies: Zijin Mining Station" was successfully held in Xiamen and Shanghang, focusing on investor education and understanding of modern mining technology and ETF investment targets [1][2] - Zijin Mining aims to become a "green, high-tech, top-tier international mining group," with significant resources in copper, gold, zinc, lithium, silver, and molybdenum across 17 countries and 17 provinces in China [2] - As of the end of 2024, Zijin Mining's total resources include 11,037 million tons of copper, 3,973 tons of gold, 1,298 million tons of zinc, 31,836 tons of silver, and 1,788 million tons of lithium (LCE) [2] Group 2 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) emphasized the importance of ETFs as efficient, transparent, and low-cost investment products, which have become core tools for asset allocation [3] - Zijin Mining is a key component of the SSE 180 ETF and has maintained a strong growth trend in recent years [3] - SSE plans to enhance investor education and promote long-term, value, and rational investment concepts through various activities [3] Group 3 - Guotai Junan Securities analyzed the changing gold pricing mechanism, highlighting that gold's value is supported by central bank purchases and its role as a hedge against inflation [5] - The report indicates that the influence of U.S. Treasury issues on gold prices will persist, and investors can leverage gold ETFs for investment opportunities [5] Group 4 - Huazhong Fund discussed the investment value of the SSE 180 ETF and gold ETF, noting that the SSE 180 index aims to capture emerging industry opportunities [6] - The gold ETF is positioned as an efficient tool for investors to allocate gold assets, especially in the context of ongoing central bank gold purchases [6] Group 5 - The event included a field visit to Zijin Mining's museum and production base, allowing participants to gain firsthand experience of mining operations and the company's resource reserves and green mining achievements [9] - SSE aims to continue promoting investor understanding of index products and fostering long-term investment concepts through similar ETF-themed activities [9]

Core Viewpoint - The World Bank's report on commodity cycles post-COVID-19 indicates a significant shift in the frequency and volatility of commodity price cycles, suggesting a new era in commodity market dynamics [1][42]. Group 1: Commodity Price Cycles - Over the past 55 years, 27 types of commodities have experienced an average of 14 turning points, approximately every four years [37]. - The average duration of booms is 38 months, while recessions last an average of 52 months, indicating that recessions tend to last longer than booms [29][37]. - The average amplitude of price changes during booms and recessions is roughly similar, suggesting symmetrical price volatility [29][37]. Group 2: Historical Price Fluctuations - The study identifies three distinct periods of commodity price fluctuations: 1970-1985, 1986-2001, and 2002-2024, each characterized by different dynamics and influencing factors [8][12][41]. - The first period (1970-1985) was marked by significant volatility due to supply shocks, particularly in the energy market, with an average boom duration of 31 months and a longer recession period [8][12]. - The second period (1986-2001) exhibited more stability, with longer average durations for both booms (47 months) and recessions (56 months), attributed to technological advancements and market liberalization [12][41]. - The third period (2002 onwards) saw a resurgence in volatility driven by demand shocks from emerging markets, with shorter average durations for both booms (35 months) and recessions (46 months) [13][41]. Group 3: Post-Pandemic Commodity Behavior - Since 2020, the average duration of boom phases has decreased to 24 months, and recession durations have halved to 23 months, indicating a significant compression of the commodity cycle [16][42]. - The amplitude of price increases during booms has intensified, averaging 113%, while the severity of price declines during recessions has decreased to 79% [17][42]. - Various factors, including macroeconomic shocks, geopolitical tensions, and climate-related disruptions, have contributed to the observed deviations from historical commodity price patterns [17][19][42]. Group 4: Long-Term Trends and Structural Changes - The global energy transition is driving sustained demand for key minerals like lithium, copper, and nickel, exerting upward pressure on their prices [19][20]. - Increasingly frequent extreme weather events are heightening supply risks, particularly for agricultural commodities, which remain highly sensitive to climate conditions [19][20]. - The slowdown of global integration has led to increased geopolitical fragmentation, marked by trade barriers and sanctions, which disrupt commodity markets and contribute to price volatility [20][42].

Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - The World Bank's report indicates a general decline in commodity prices, predicting a 12% drop by 2025 and an additional 5% drop in 2026 [1] - Energy prices, particularly oil, are the main drivers of this decline, with Brent crude oil expected to average $64 per barrel in 2025, a 21% decrease from 2024 [1] - Coal prices are projected to fall by 27% in 2025 due to weakened demand and high inventory levels [1] Group 2: Metal and Mineral Prices - Metal and mineral prices are also on a downward trend, with copper prices expected to drop by 10% to approximately $8,200 per ton by 2025 [2] - Basic metals like aluminum, zinc, and nickel are forecasted to decline by 10% to 13% [2] - The decrease in metal prices may lower manufacturing costs but is unlikely to stimulate consumer demand [2] Group 3: Agricultural Commodity Prices - Agricultural commodity prices are generally declining, with wheat, corn, and rice expected to drop by 10.5% in 2025 due to ample supply and slowing demand [2] - Oilseed and edible oil prices are projected to decrease by 3% to 6% due to increased production and improved global inventories [2] - Prices for agricultural raw materials like cotton, rubber, and tobacco are anticipated to fall by 2% to 10% due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels [2] Group 4: Economic Impacts of Commodity Price Declines - The decline in commodity prices will have varying impacts on different countries, helping to curb inflation and stabilize consumption in importing countries [3] - Energy and food price reductions are expected to lower the consumer price index (CPI) globally, particularly benefiting developed economies [3] - Resource-dependent economies, particularly those reliant on oil, gas, metals, and agricultural exports, will face challenges such as declining fiscal revenues and economic growth [3]

Group 1: Vehicle-to-Grid Interaction - The first batch of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) interaction pilot projects has been announced, including 30 projects across 9 cities, allowing electric vehicles to both draw energy from and supply energy back to the grid [1] - V2G technology aims to create a "peak shaving and valley filling" cycle, but its practical benefits may be limited due to the already stable domestic power grid and the infrequent need for such interactions [1][2] Group 2: Real Estate Market Trends - In the first quarter, the top 100 real estate companies acquired land worth 2895.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.6%, with the top ten companies showing a remarkable 162% increase in land acquisition [3] - The real estate market remains uneven, with core urban areas attracting more interest from developers, and a trend of joint land acquisitions emerging among companies to alleviate financial pressures [4] Group 3: Tin Market Dynamics - Tin has emerged as a leading commodity in 2023, with LME tin prices rising by approximately 31% year-to-date, driven by supply constraints and increased demand from sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy [5] - Recent natural disasters in major tin-producing regions have exacerbated supply issues, contributing to the rapid price increase [5] Group 4: Economic Stimulus Measures in Sichuan - Sichuan province has introduced measures to stimulate economic recovery, including financial incentives for hosting large-scale events, with a maximum reward of 5 million yuan for event organizers [7] - The focus on boosting local consumption and supporting businesses reflects a broader strategy to enhance economic growth amid external uncertainties [8] Group 5: New Energy Vehicle Sales - New energy vehicle sales have surged, with several companies reporting significant year-on-year growth in March, particularly Zero Run, which became the top-selling new energy vehicle brand for the month [9] - The competitive landscape among new energy vehicle manufacturers is shifting rapidly, with sales driven by government subsidies and promotional strategies [9] Group 6: JD and Dada Merger - JD has finalized a privatization agreement with Dada, which will become a wholly-owned subsidiary, reflecting JD's strategy to enhance its logistics capabilities in the competitive instant delivery market [11][12] - Dada's financial struggles highlight the challenges in the instant delivery sector, necessitating continued support from JD to sustain operations [12] Group 7: Old Pile Gold's Performance - Old Pile Gold reported impressive financial results, with a 166% increase in sales to 9.8 billion yuan and a 254% rise in net profit, aiming to establish itself as a leading brand in the gold market [13] - The company's unique pricing strategy and focus on aesthetic appeal have contributed to its success, particularly during a period of rising gold prices [13][14]