来源：中国银行 来源：中国银行 12月11日，中国银行协助中国五矿集团有限公司（以下简称"中国五矿"）于银行间市场首批落地50亿元 并购票据业务。 近期，中国银行间市场交易商协会发布《关于优化并购票据相关工作机制的通知》，旨在进一步提高债 券市场对经济结构调整和资源优化配置的支持力度，更好满足企业兼并、收购的资金需求。 中国银行第一时间落实并购票据工作机制安排，充分发挥一体化并购服务优势，凭借丰富的项目发行经 验，为中国五矿并购票据发行工作提供了高效优质的金融服务。本次募集资金全部用于支付中国五矿收 购重要项目的并购价款，将有力支持中国五矿加快实施矿产资源战略保障举措，提升金属矿产资源保障 能力。 今年以来，中国银行积极响应银行间市场产品创新，成功参与了科创债、并购票据等创新产品首发工 作，同时在多个重大项目中担任银团牵头角色或独家并购财务顾问，成功落地一批科技企业并购贷款试 点项目。中国银行将持续参与市场创新，助力企业拓宽融资渠道，为服务实体经济高质量发展贡献更大 力量。 责任编辑：曹睿潼 12月11日，中国银行协助中国五矿集团有限公司（以下简称"中国五矿"）于银行间市场首批落地50亿元 并购票据业务。 近 ...

但如今，股价回落至198.85美元，距离高点跌去42.4%。只用了不到一个季度，高潮变低谷。 AI行情像是一条被不断拉扯的橡皮筋，每一家巨头的财报都是新的张力点。 昨晚，甲骨文又一次把市场的神经狠狠绷紧了。 财报公布后，甲骨文股价盘中一度暴跌16%，市值蒸发超千亿美元，收盘仍蒸发近690亿美元。 风暴眼来自甲骨文那份被市场称作"打破幻觉"的财报，市场对AI、泡沫的担忧情绪又卷土重来。 这家公司在三个月前，9月10日，因为与OpenAI签下高达3000亿美元的AI订单而股价暴涨40%，创下345.22美元历史高位。创始人埃里森更是短暂坐上世 界首富的位置。 全球宏观市场的割裂已经摆上了台面，一边是AI泡沫的纠结与极限拉扯，另一边大宗商品市场正在上演逼空行情。 今年的大宗商品市场，真正让人心里发毛的，不是黄金的新高，也不是铜价的冲天，而是白银这个从不抢戏的"金属二弟"，突然像被按下了加速键，年内 涨幅直接翻倍。 107%的涨幅，比黄金还猛。 | 序号 | 名称 | 年内涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | T | COMEX白银 | 107.15 | | 2 | 韩国KOSPI | 71. ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 中信建投指出，四季度以来，全球宏观经济与地缘政治不确定性加剧，凸显了战略矿产资源在安全保障 与价格弹性方面的投资价值。基于当前供需格局、政策导向及产业趋势，铜、铝、黄金三大品种的中长 期配置逻辑清晰。铜受益于矿端供应紧张与绿色经济需求拉动；铝受限于国内产能天花板，并受益于轻 量化及绿电需求；黄金则具备对冲风险及通胀的独特属性。投资应围绕三大主线：一是供给刚性，关注 受资源约束和产能政策限制显著的品种；二是绿色需求，把握能源转型在新能源汽车、光伏风电等领域 带来的结构性增长；三是金融属性，利用流动性预期变化配置避险资产。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum group metal prices are strong following the rise in gold and silver prices, but there is a risk of a short - term pullback. The prices of platinum and palladium have increased this month, but the driving force of the spot market has weakened, and the tight overseas spot pattern has eased. With the ETF holdings showing mediocre performance, attention should be paid to the price decline risk when the trading enthusiasm in the precious metal sector fades. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see approach for platinum and palladium currently [3][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Movements**: NYMEX platinum price rose 5.16% to $1,660.4 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's main contract price rose 1.12% to $1,483.5 per ounce this month. The platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have also seen price increases since their listing on November 27 [10][21][24] - **Implied Lease Rates**: The one - month implied lease rates of platinum and palladium have declined, indicating a relief in the tight overseas spot situation. The platinum one - month implied lease rate dropped from 24.1% on November 4 to 15.03% on December 4, and that of palladium fell from 11.71% to 6.89% [10] - **ETF Holdings**: Overseas major platinum ETF total holdings decreased from 76.04 tons to 75.88 tons this month, while palladium ETF total holdings remained around 14.8 tons [10] - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The market expects an 84.8% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in the December meeting, and a 15.2% probability of keeping the rate unchanged. The easing expectation has been almost fully priced, and there is a risk of a decline in precious metal prices [10] 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum and Palladium Prices**: NYMEX platinum price increased by 5.16% to $1,660.4 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's main contract price rose by 1.12% to $1,483.5 per ounce. The domestic platinum and palladium futures prices also had small increases [21][24] - **Domestic Platinum Premium**: Affected by the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy, the domestic platinum premium has significantly rebounded. As of December 4, the Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price was 434.2 yuan/gram [27] - **Lease Rates**: As of December 4, the platinum and palladium one - month implied lease rates were at the highest levels in the same period of the past five years but showed obvious weakening signs in the short term [31] - **CFTC Positions**: The CFTC positions of platinum and palladium have not been updated to the latest reporting period [36][39] 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **ETF Holdings**: As of December 4, the total holdings of platinum ETFs were 75.87 tons, and those of palladium ETFs were 14.8 tons [50][53] - **Platinum Inventory**: The US platinum exchange inventory remained at a high level. As of December 4, the CME platinum inventory was 19.14 tons [57] - **Palladium Inventory**: The CME palladium inventory as of December 4 was 5,362 kilograms, with a decrease of 25.93 kilograms compared to November 25 [62][63] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The total platinum output of the top 15 global mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024, indicating a contraction in mine - end supply [67][68] - **Palladium Supply**: The total palladium output of the top 15 global mines in 2025 is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease from 2024 [70][71] - **Chinese Imports**: China's platinum imports in October were 10.23 tons, showing a decline from September, and palladium imports in October were 3.1 tons, a significant drop from September [74][77] - **Automobile Production**: The report presents data on automobile production in China, Japan, Germany, and the US, but no clear conclusion is drawn from these data [79][82][85] - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: The global platinum market is expected to have a supply - demand deficit of 14.29 tons in 2025, and the palladium market is expected to have a supply - demand surplus of 3.5 tons [88][89] 3.5 Monthly and Cross - Market Spreads - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spreads**: The report presents the 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads of NYMEX platinum [93][97] - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spreads**: The report shows the 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads of NYMEX palladium [106][102] - **London - NYMEX Spreads**: The report provides the spreads between London spot platinum and palladium prices and NYMEX prices [108]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘回调，回到20均线以下运行。近期部分产能减产，部分货源偏紧。产业链上，镍矿价 格坚挺，海运费持平，印尼2026年RKAB配额预计3.19亿吨，预期供应宽松。镍铁价格有止跌迹象，大部 分维稳，小部分仍有回落，成本线重心维稳。不锈钢库存回升，需求表现仍不佳。精炼镍库存持续高位， 过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货119900，基差1850，偏多 3、库存：LME库存253074，-1290，上交所仓单32351，-371，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向下，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2601：20均线上下震荡运行，中长线反弹抛空。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格持平，短期镍矿价格坚，海运费持平，镍铁价格止损大部分维稳，成本线维 稳，不锈钢库存回升。中性 2、基差：不锈钢平均价格13275，基差810，偏多 3、库存：期货仓单：62514，-484，中性 4、盘面：收盘价在20均线以上，20均线向下，中性 5、结论：不锈钢2 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - The market showed strong performance in two main sectors: non-ferrous metals and consumer electronics, with significant gains in leading stocks such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [1] - Industrial metals, precious metals, and minor metals are gaining attention due to tightening global supply and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with silver and copper reaching historical highs [1] - The consumer electronics sector experienced a surge, particularly in AI smartphone stocks, with ZTE Corporation hitting its daily limit and a market capitalization of 221.48 billion [3] Group 2: Emei Mountain A - Emei Mountain A stock reached its daily limit, with a market capitalization of 7.461 billion and a trading volume ratio of 8.89 [5] - The company announced a shareholder return event scheduled from December 1, 2025, to January 31, 2026, offering various benefits to shareholders holding 500 shares or more [6] - The event includes perks such as tickets, cable cars, hotels, hot springs, skiing, tea, and cultural products, reflecting a trend of increasing physical dividends among A-share companies [6][7] Group 3: Film and Entertainment Sector - The film and cinema sector saw an increase, with China Film hitting its daily limit and achieving two consecutive gains [8] - The film "Zootopia 2" has grossed 1.913 billion in its first five days, breaking multiple records and becoming the highest-grossing imported animated film in China [10] - The 2025 annual box office has surpassed 48 billion, indicating a strong recovery in the film market compared to the previous year's total of 42.502 billion [10] - The holiday season (November 28 to December 31) has begun with over 50 films scheduled for release, catering to diverse audience preferences [11] - Analysts suggest that the film industry is poised for structural upgrades driven by ticket sales recovery and AI technology, recommending a focus on tech-driven content companies and those with strong IP and short drama operations [11]

美国感恩节假期，市场本就交投清淡，交易中断进一步放大了价格波动，并一度导致贵金属买卖价差飙升。市场普遍认为，当前贵金属市场正处 于一个由供应短缺、宏观前景改善和潜在贸易政策共同构成的"完美风暴"之中。 在强劲的基本面与美联储降息预期的推动下，白银和铜价在周五的动荡交易中双双飙升至历史新高，而芝商所罕见的技术故障加剧了市场的剧 烈波动。 与黄金不同，白银有很大一部分需求来自工业领域，例如光伏电池和电子产品。这种强劲的实物需求为价格提供了坚实基础。 上个月伦敦市场严重的供应紧张曾一度将价格推至历史高位，尽管此后近5400万盎司的白银流入缓解了挤压，但市场依然显著吃紧，白银的一 个月借贷成本仍盘旋在正常水平之上。 分析认为，这些流入伦敦的金属，反过来给包括中国在内的其他交易中心带来了压力。 上海期货交易所的数据显示，其仓库的白银库存近期已 降至2015年以来的最低水平。 周五，芝商所因数据中心冷却系统故障，导致其全球衍生品市场交易中断数小时。 美国感恩节假期，市场本就交投清淡，交易中断进一步放大 了价格波动，并一度导致贵金属买卖价差飙升。 随着芝商所多数交易业务在美东时间清晨恢复，伦敦金属交易所的期货延续涨势。 白 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver and copper prices surged to historical highs driven by strong fundamentals and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, exacerbated by a rare technical failure at the CME Group that intensified market volatility [1][10]. Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices rose by 5.9% to $56.53 per ounce, setting a new record, while supply concerns intensified due to a significant shortage in the market [2][4]. - Industrial demand for silver, particularly from sectors like photovoltaics and electronics, has provided a solid foundation for price increases, despite a recent influx of 54 million ounces easing some supply pressure [5][6]. - Concerns over potential tariffs on silver, following its inclusion in the US Geological Survey's critical minerals list, have led to hesitance among traders regarding exporting the metal [6]. Group 2: Copper Market Sentiment - Copper prices reached new highs, with LME copper futures hitting $11,210.50 per ton, following discussions among miners, smelters, and traders at a Shanghai conference that highlighted tightening market conditions [2][7]. - The energy trading firm Mercuria's metal chief expressed bullish predictions, warning that increased shipments to the US could deplete global copper inventories [8]. - The price surge was also a response to optimistic sentiments from the CESCO Shanghai conference, contributing to a broader bullish narrative for the year-end [9]. Group 3: Macro Economic Influences - The anticipated monetary easing by the Federal Reserve has been a significant driver for metal prices, with an 86.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut expected at the December 10 meeting [10]. - The broader surge in metal prices this year reflects a trend known as "inflation trade," with silver prices increasing over 90% as investors shift from government bonds and currencies to alternative assets [12].

好家伙！伦敦金属交易所（LME）一纸公告，直接把金融圈炸开了锅！从11月10日起，所有非美元计价的金属期权交易被按下了暂停键，人民币更是首当 其冲被"请"了出去。最让人瞠目的是，官方甩出的理由竟然是"流动性不足、交易量太小"？ 前言 美元霸权暗流汹涌 把这事件放到聚光灯下细看，你会发现它绝非孤例，几乎在同一时间，另外两出大戏也正同步上演。 美国高调宣布12月将启动新一轮量化宽松，说白了，就是开动印钞机，让美元如潮水般涌向市场。另一边，由G7牵头，悄咪咪地拉拢了10个国家，组建了 一个所谓的"关键矿产联盟"，却唯独将中国排除在外。 这三件事如同三颗棋子，精准地落在同一盘棋局上。明眼人一看便知，这是一场针对人民币定价权的"围猎行动"，而幕后的策划者，矛头直指美国。全球金 属定价权的争夺，早已从暗流涌动，升级为摆在台面上的硬碰硬较量！ 这理由，数据第一个不服！2024年初，光是铜的人民币计价日交易量就达到了35.7万手，到了2025年上半年，这个数字更是火箭般蹿升到48.2万手。这哪里 是"没流动性"？分明是热得发烫，交易活跃度一路高歌猛进！ 更耐人寻味的是，LME看似披着"英国外衣"，骨子里却是香港交易所的亲儿子 ...

2025年11月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 3 | | 铜：LME现货走强，驱动价格 | 5 | | 锌：偏弱震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，限制价格回落 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：等待指引 | 12 | | 氧化铝：承压下行 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 | 14 | | 不锈钢：钢价承压低位震荡，但下方想象力有限 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：市场情绪向好，高位震荡 | 16 | | 工业硅：关注盘面下方支撑 | 18 | | 多晶硅：震荡偏强 | 18 | | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：仓单大量注册，注意持仓风险 | 23 | | 锰硅：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 26 | | 对二甲苯：短期 ...