锂电池产业作为推动能源转型和绿色发展的关键，前景广阔、潜力巨大。把握产业发展机遇，山东欣旺 达深耕锂电池生产制造领域，持续突破超充技术，为山东锻造锂电池产业链核心竞争力注入强劲动能。 今年上半年，山东推动新型工业化提速增效，规模以上工业增加值增长7.7%。全省锂电池产业发展势 头强劲，正负极材料、电解液等产能产量均位居全国前列。2024年产业规模突破1000亿元，增速超过 20%。今天，让我们一起走进山东欣旺达的锂电池生产制造基地，感受超充电池新产品的闪电速度。 记者来到山东欣旺达新能源有限公司，看到一辆搭载了新一代锂电池的电动汽车，在超充模式下，它可 以实现补能12分钟，续航500公里，这可以极大地缓解我们的充电焦虑。那这是如何做到的呢？ "它搭载的电池是一款5C充放电倍率的电池，也是目前市面上比较先进的一款电池。5C意味着充放电的 电流是额定电流的5倍。我们最新一代是6C，充放电流是额定电流的6倍，只需10分钟的时间就可以在 规定区间内充到额定电量。"山东欣旺达新能源有限公司总工程师李文明解释。 被当地雄厚的产业基础所吸引，2021年欣旺达从深圳落户到了枣庄，主攻锂电池产业链的中游环节—— 电池制造。经历 ...

如何挖掘中国周期行业里的好生意？ A 股策略专题｜2025.7.24 中信证券研究部 裘翔 首席 A 股策略师 S1010518080002 924 行情至今，大部分行业在短期内都经历了一轮牛熊，行业轮动速度加快， 注意力不断在新消费、创新药、AI、智能驾驶、基建这些自下而上逻辑的公司 之间反复切换，这篇报告希望解决的问题是在投资者注意力被严重分散的时 代，通过系统的自上而下的选股标准找到中期确定性强且高赔率的周期品公 司。从基本面视角看，供需差驱动利润率提升是周期股的基本逻辑，最优解是 在供给属性好的生意里寻找需求增量。供给很多时候是景气启动的必要不充分 条件，是景气度持续的充分条件。因此我们从供给角度出发，按照政策限制供 给、产能扩张慢、竞争格局好（寡头垄断经营）这三个线索选出了 30 个中国 资产中供给受限的好行业和对应公司。本轮反内卷政策后，预计未来也会有更 多公司陆续开始具备上述的特征。从估值角度看，市销率是最适合周期行业左 侧逆向配置的标准，周期型行业的交易来说，左侧配置的风险回报要显著好于 右侧，而这些供给受限的行业在底部的 PS 区间也更窄，信号明显。因此，我 们建议关注供给属性好的周期性行业 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the need for further counter-cyclical policies to achieve the annual economic growth target due to pressures from tariffs, real estate, and limited fiscal capacity [5][8] - The implementation of a national childcare subsidy program starting January 1, 2025, aims to support families with children under three years old, providing an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child [5][8] - The report indicates a moderate recovery in the Chinese economy, with consumption and investment as core drivers, and suggests a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments in the A-share market [5][8] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,597.94 with a slight increase of 0.12%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.44% to 11,217.58 [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are at 14.76 and 40.96, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [5][8] International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experienced declines of 0.67% and 0.45%, respectively, while the Nikkei 225 saw a slight increase of 0.62% [4] Industry Analysis - The report notes a significant increase in the securities sector, with the securities index rising by 8.85% in June, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.35 percentage points [14] - The report anticipates a steady increase in brokerage firms' performance in July, driven by a recovery in trading volumes and an increase in margin financing [15] - The automotive industry continues to show growth, with June production and sales figures reflecting increases of 5.50% and 8.12% month-on-month, respectively [17][18] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as technology growth and cyclical manufacturing, as well as high-dividend banks and public utilities for stable returns [5][8] - In the automotive sector, it suggests monitoring policies that promote sustainable development and the impact of new energy vehicle incentives on consumption [19] - The report emphasizes the potential of the gaming, publishing, and IP sectors, highlighting their strong performance and growth prospects [20][21]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period in China is characterized by steady economic growth and significant tax reforms, with total tax revenue expected to exceed 85 trillion yuan, an increase of 13 trillion yuan compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2] - A series of tax reduction and fee reduction policies have been implemented, with an estimated total of 10.5 trillion yuan in new tax cuts and fee reductions, significantly aiding economic recovery [1][3] Tax Revenue and Economic Growth - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," tax revenue is projected to surpass 155 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 80% of total fiscal revenue, with tax revenue (excluding export tax rebates) expected to exceed 85 trillion yuan [2] - The tax revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, with a 3.4% year-on-year decline in 2024 and a 1.2% decline in the first half of the year [5] Tax Reduction Policies - From 2021 to mid-2023, new tax cuts and fee reductions totaled 9.9 trillion yuan, with expectations to reach 10.5 trillion yuan by the end of the year, averaging over 2 trillion yuan annually [3] - The majority of tax cuts have benefited the private sector, with private enterprises receiving 7.2 trillion yuan in tax reductions, accounting for 72.9% of the total [3] Emerging Industries and Tax Contributions - Traditional industries like real estate are experiencing slower growth, while emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and high-tech manufacturing are showing strong growth, with sales revenue increasing by 37.6% annually [4] - The contribution of new productive forces to tax revenue is on the rise, with private enterprises' sales revenue increasing from 68.9% in 2020 to 71.7% in mid-2023 [4] Individual Tax Policies - A series of individual income tax deductions have been introduced, including increased deductions for childcare, education, and elder care, aimed at alleviating family financial burdens [7][8] - Over 1 billion individuals benefited from these deductions, with a significant portion of the benefits going to middle-aged individuals with dependents [7] Future Tax Reforms - The recent policy discussions emphasize the need to improve the individual income tax system, suggesting a more equitable distribution of tax burdens among different income types [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Guizhou Bijie Phosphate-Coal Chemical Integration Project, led by Youshan New Materials Technology (Guizhou) Co., Ltd., aims to produce 600,000 tons of iron phosphate annually, marking a significant investment in the lithium battery material sector [2][4]. Group 1 - Youshan New Materials Technology (Guizhou) Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Zhejiang Youshan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., under Huayou Holding Group, focusing on the research, production, and sales of lithium iron phosphate for lithium batteries [2][3]. - The project is part of a larger initiative with a total investment of approximately 73 billion yuan, which includes plans for an annual production capacity of 800,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, 1.5 million tons of iron phosphate, and various other chemical products [4][5]. - The first phase of the project will establish facilities for the annual production of 500,000 tons of iron phosphate, 300,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, and additional chemical products [5]. Group 2 - In 2024, Youshan Technology is expected to produce over 140,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, with the Bijie project serving as a precursor for lithium iron phosphate production [3]. - The project has commenced with the foundation engineering officially starting on July 18, 2024, indicating a strong commitment to advancing the lithium battery material industry in the region [4].

Group 1: Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in the shipment volumes of lithium battery cathode materials in China for the first half of 2025, with significant increases in different categories of cathodes [2][4][6]. Group 2: Shipment Volumes of Different Cathode Materials - In the first half of 2025, the shipment volume of ternary cathode materials reached 321,000 tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.2% [2]. - The top 10 companies in ternary cathode shipments include Ruixiang New Materials, Rongbai Technology, and Bamo Technology [3]. Group 3: Phosphate Iron Lithium Cathodes - The shipment volume of phosphate iron lithium cathodes was 1,606,000 tons in the first half of 2025, showing a remarkable year-on-year increase of 68.5% [4]. - The leading companies in this category are Hunan Youneng, Wanrun New Energy, and Defang Nano [5]. Group 4: Cobalt Lithium Cathodes - The shipment volume of cobalt lithium cathodes was 53,500 tons in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 24.2% [6]. - The top 5 companies in cobalt lithium shipments include Xiamen Tungsten New Energy and Bamo Technology [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the environmental impact assessment public notice for the Guizhou Bijie Phosphate-Coal Chemical Integration Project, which aims to produce 600,000 tons of iron phosphate annually [1] - The project is initiated by Youshan New Materials Technology (Guizhou) Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Zhejiang Youshan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., which is part of Huayou Holding Group [1] - Youshan Technology focuses on the research, production, and sales of lithium battery cathode materials, specifically lithium iron phosphate [1] Group 2 - The company is actively building a competitive ecosystem in the new energy lithium battery industry through joint ventures and equity cooperation, with production bases established in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Hubei, and Yunnan [1] - In 2024, Youshan Technology is expected to produce over 140,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, with the Bijie project serving as a precursor project for lithium iron phosphate [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the **photovoltaic (PV) industry**, particularly regarding supply-side reforms and price recovery, which are expected to drive significant improvements in profitability for companies involved in silicon material production [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply-Side Reform**: The government is committed to eliminating chaotic low-price competition, which is anticipated to lead to a recovery in silicon material prices to around **60,000 yuan per ton**. This price recovery is expected to enhance the profitability of companies in the sector [1][4]. - **Current Market Trends**: The PV industry has been experiencing an upward trend in polysilicon prices, despite high inventory levels. The expansion of new production capacity is limited due to energy consumption standards, which may restrict future growth in polysilicon production [1][4]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Investors are advised to focus on the silicon material segment, as it is poised for recovery. Other segments such as silicon wafers, batteries, and modules also present good investment opportunities, although their price recovery may be slower [4][5]. - **Long-Term Drivers**: The future growth of the PV industry will be driven by supply-side optimization and technological innovation, supported by government policies aimed at ensuring healthy market competition [5][6]. Additional Important Content - **Institutional Holdings**: As of June 30, institutional holdings in the PV sector are relatively low, indicating a favorable time for investment. The ongoing development of storage platforms and revenue processes is expected to sustain market growth [7]. - **Solid-State Battery Sector**: Attention should be given to the equipment and materials sectors within the solid-state battery field, with significant bidding expected in the second half of the year, particularly from leading companies [8]. - **Traditional Lithium Battery Materials**: The profitability of traditional lithium battery materials is under pressure, but there is potential for recovery as the logic of supply-side reform extends to other new energy sectors [9][10]. - **Hydropower Projects**: The **Yajiang Hydropower Station** project has commenced, attracting significant attention due to its potential impact on the market, particularly in construction materials and electrical equipment sectors [11][13]. Investment Directions - Key investment directions include the **PV anti-involution theme**, the **Yajiang Hydropower Station project**, and **critical pools**. Specific companies in the silicon material sector are expected to benefit from these trends [17][18].

Core Insights - The Jiangsu Future Industry Innovation and Entrepreneurship Competition showcased 56 projects focusing on key future industries such as brain-computer interfaces, new materials, hydrogen energy, and advanced storage, with 34 projects selected as "gold seeds" for investment [1][2][6] Group 1: Competition Overview - The competition is a significant platform for nurturing future industries in Jiangsu, organized by the Provincial Development and Reform Commission and supported by various investment and entrepreneurial associations [2] - The number of projects registered for this year's competition increased by nearly 40% compared to the first edition, indicating growing interest and innovation in the sector [2] - The final round involved rigorous processes including live presentations and real-time scoring, highlighting the high quality of projects that advanced to this stage [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Winning projects will enter the Jiangsu Strategic Emerging Industry Fund's future industry angel fund project reserve, providing them with potential investment opportunities [3][6] - The Jiangsu Strategic Emerging Industry Fund has reached a scale of over 100 billion, establishing a solid foundation for the growth of emerging industries [2][6] - Successful cases from the fund include a 10 million yuan investment in a biotechnology company aimed at accelerating clinical research for cancer treatments [3] Group 3: Ecosystem and Support - The competition is part of a broader strategy to cultivate future industries through collaboration among government, enterprises, research institutions, finance, and society [5][6] - The Jiangsu government is implementing a three-year action plan (2024-2026) to accelerate the development of future industries, with the competition serving as a key initiative [5][6] - The selected projects will receive continuous support and tracking services from the Jiangsu High-tech Investment Group, enhancing their chances of success [6]

沿着最小阻力的方向，符合人性，但不一定通往最优结果，突破阻力是改革的应有之 义。"反内卷"不等于"涨价去产能"，是一个需要中央、地方和司法体系协同配合的改 革过程。高度重视反内卷政策，准确把握改革方向。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/赵宏鹤 一、阻力最小的方向 对市场来说，要在短时间内参与"反内卷"主题，上游行业同样是阻力最小的方向： 2016 年供改记忆 犹新——逻辑直观容易理解，市场流动性宽松——情绪容易催化，商品价格和行业估值处于历史低位 ——筹码结构容易拉升。 但阻力最小的方向不一定通往最优的结果。 一个简单的例子是，当前形势下，如果反内卷仅限于上游 涨价去产能，那么真正深陷于内卷的中下游行业特别是新兴行业，将会面临更大的竞争压力，甚至加剧 内卷。回顾过往， 21 年的"双碳"一度出现合成谬误，好在数月之后得到纠偏。 对市场来说，流动性、情绪、反通缩预期和筹码结构的铺垫固然可以降低阻力，但拉长时间仍需经历现 实的检验，这需要切实的供给收缩和需求回暖，本质上是要对齐高层改革的意图，否则将会面临证伪的 风险。 二、改革之路 要实现最优结果，就要突破很多阻力，这也是改革的应有之义。 物理学里有一个"最小阻力定律"，指 ...