Core Insights - Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung province and the complete blockade of smuggling routes [1] - Bangka Belitung province is a significant tin mining center, playing a crucial role in the global tin supply chain [1] - Since the launch of the special operation on September 1, Indonesian authorities have successfully intercepted nearly 80% of smuggled tin [1] - The president emphasized the rich rare earth minerals contained in tin mining waste, which have been overlooked, and instructed customs to recruit chemical experts for rare earth content testing [1] - The government aims to combat illegal mining and enhance national revenue, with an estimated recovery of 450 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 2.7 billion USD) by 2026 [1]

Core Insights - Since the second quarter of last year, the impact of Myanmar's tin mining ban has led to a significant decline in China's tin ore imports, which have remained at low levels [2] - In August 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates reached 10,267.27 physical tons (equivalent to 4,692.13 metal tons), showing a year-on-year increase of 12.79% but a month-on-month decrease of 4.68% [2] - Cumulatively, from January to August, imports totaled approximately 82,700 physical tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.10% [2] Import Analysis by Country - In August, imports from Myanmar amounted to 2,091.78 tons (equivalent to 593.44 metal tons), representing a year-on-year decrease of 41.00% but a month-on-month increase of 27.81% [3] - Imports from other countries totaled 8,175.49 tons (equivalent to 4,098.69 metal tons), showing a year-on-year increase of 29.94% but a month-on-month decrease of 8.07% [3] Supply Chain Dynamics - Myanmar's Wa State has begun resuming production, but progress is slower than expected due to declining ore grades and increasing mining costs [6] - The reliance on imported reagents from China for the beneficiation process is also raising operational costs, dampening the enthusiasm for resuming production [6] - Australia's tin mines, despite declining reserves, showed significant month-on-month growth in imports in August, primarily due to a recovery from low volumes in July [6] Decrease in Imports from Other Regions - Imports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in August were 2,452.69 physical tons (approximately 1,382.67 metal tons), reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.74% and a month-on-month decrease of 15.56% [7] - Bolivia's imports decreased to 505.80 physical tons (approximately 119.32 metal tons), with a month-on-month decline of 7.45% [7] Market Conditions and Price Outlook - The overall supply of tin ore in China remains tight, with slow recovery in Myanmar and the upcoming rainy season in Africa likely to limit significant increases in import volumes [9] - Domestic tin ingot smelting enterprises are experiencing reduced operating rates due to tight raw material supplies and high costs, which supports tin prices [9] - Although there are signs of slight recovery in the downstream market, actual consumption levels may decline compared to previous years, leading to a cautious approach among enterprises [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai tin market is experiencing a price increase, with the main contract rising over 2%, despite being in a season of weak demand [1]. Supply and Demand - Overall demand for tin is currently weak due to the off-peak consumption season [1]. - Tin ore imports in China decreased slightly in July compared to June, indicating a tightening supply situation [1]. - Although Myanmar's Wa State has gradually resumed production, there has not yet been any significant volume of tin entering the domestic market [1]. Market Influences - The combination of tight supply and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is contributing to a stronger outlook for Shanghai tin prices [1].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the tin industry, specifically the global tin supply and demand dynamics, pricing factors, and production challenges in key regions such as China, Indonesia, and Myanmar [1][2][3][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tin Price Projections**: To ensure a 10% production capacity, the LME tin price needs to gradually rise to $54,000, while the current price in 2025 is approximately $34,000 [1][3]. - **Global Tin Reserves**: As of 2024, global tin reserves are projected to be around 4.3 million tons, with China accounting for 23% of this total [1][4]. - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: In 2025, global tin supply is expected to grow by 1% to 377,000 tons, while demand is projected to increase by 3% to 385,000 tons, resulting in an 8,000-ton deficit [2][13]. - **Impact of Macroeconomic Factors**: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the upcoming consumption peak in September, and the launch of new electronic products are anticipated to drive tin prices upward [1][6][8]. - **Myanmar's Production Challenges**: Myanmar's slow recovery from production halts due to various factors, including geological issues and licensing delays, is expected to limit supply impacts until at least 2026 [7][9]. Additional Important Content - **Declining Ore Grades**: The global decline in tin ore grades is leading to rising production costs, with the complete cost expected to reach $34,000 by 2027 and $54,000 by 2030 [3]. - **Regional Production Insights**: Indonesia, as the second-largest tin producer, faces challenges in mining due to geographical constraints, with significant production drops from major companies like Timah [9][11]. - **Emerging Supply Sources**: South America and Africa are identified as potential future sources of tin supply, with expected production increases in countries like Peru and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, despite political instability [10]. - **Domestic Production Trends**: Domestic tin production in China has seen limited growth due to regulatory constraints, with ongoing projects progressing slowly [11]. - **Consumer Demand Drivers**: The global tin consumption is projected to reach 373,000 tons in 2024, driven primarily by the electronics sector, particularly soldering applications [12]. Recommended Companies - **Xiyu Co., Ltd.**: Noted for its resource expansion capabilities and potential in tailings recovery, with strategic partnerships for a northern industrial base [14]. - **Xinyan Silver**: Expected to see production increases from its projects, contributing several thousand tons to the market [14]. - **Huaxi Nonferrous Metals**: Positioned as a key player in resource integration in Guangxi, with potential production boosts from various mining projects [14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in tin prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic pressures, ongoing supply disruptions, and structural demand differentiation in the market [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The US Markit Manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 54.5, exceeding expectations and indicating the fastest expansion since 2022, which has strengthened the US dollar and put pressure on commodity prices [1] - The imposition of tariffs by the US has increased market uncertainty, leading to a decline in major US stock indices and a cautious trading environment [1] Supply Side Analysis - Global tin supply is heavily concentrated in countries like Myanmar and Indonesia, with production dynamics in these countries directly impacting market supply [1] - Myanmar's production recovery is hindered by slow infrastructure repairs and labor shortages, resulting in lower-than-expected output [1] - Indonesia's refined tin export quotas are subject to domestic policy changes, adding to supply uncertainty [1] - The overall quality of global tin resources is declining, leading to increased mining costs and the exit of smaller mines due to financial and technical constraints [2] Demand Side Analysis - Traditional demand from the electronics sector is weakening due to slower product iterations, particularly in smartphones and tablets, leading to reduced solder demand [1] - Conversely, emerging sectors such as electric vehicle battery manufacturing and photovoltaic component soldering are experiencing rapid growth in tin demand, particularly driven by global clean energy policies [1] Industry Chain Dynamics - Upstream tin mining companies face dual pressures from rising costs and resource depletion, necessitating increased investment in technology [2] - Midstream smelting companies are experiencing fluctuating operating rates due to unstable supply, leading to reduced processing fees and profit margins [2] - Downstream manufacturing companies are compelled to control costs and explore alternative materials, although the short-term irreplaceability of tin in key applications remains significant [2] Short-term Outlook - Tin prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, influenced by the recovery progress in major producing countries and the stability of Indonesia's export policies, alongside the unexpected growth in demand from new energy and photovoltaic sectors [3] - If supply disruptions ease and emerging demand continues to grow, tin prices may find support; conversely, if supply increases unexpectedly while demand growth slows, prices could face downward pressure [3]

Group 1: Report Core View - In H1 2025, China's tin ore imports decreased sharply due to the delayed resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and geopolitical conflicts in the DRC. In Q3, the overall imports are expected to remain at a low level, but the imports from Africa will gradually increase. If the tin mines in Wa State resume production smoothly in Q4, China's tin ore imports are expected to improve significantly [2][5][11] Group 2: 2025 H1 Domestic Tin Ore Imports - In H1 2025, China's tin ore imports decreased by 32.42% year-on-year to 62,100 physical tons. Imports from Myanmar dropped by 75.92% to 13,200 physical tons, while imports from the DRC increased [5] Group 3: Q3 Domestic Tin Ore Imports - In Q3, China's tin ore imports are expected to remain at a low level. In July, the import volume was 10,278 physical tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 13.7%. The decrease mainly came from Myanmar [7] - Although some operators in Wa State, Myanmar, have obtained mining permits, the export volume to China is not expected to increase significantly in Q3. If the resumption is successful in Q4, the monthly import volume is expected to return to 2,000 - 3,000 metal tons [7] Group 4: Tin Ore Imports from Africa - After the Bisie tin mine in the DRC resumed production, production has not been hindered, and imports from the DRC are expected to increase slightly in Q3. Investment in Nigerian tin mines is increasing, and production is expected to grow steadily [8] Group 5: Tin Ore Imports from Other Countries - Bolivia restricts the export of high-grade tin ore, and only low-grade tin ore can be exported, which is highly unstable. Australian tin mine reserves are decreasing, and subsequent production will mainly be stable [8][10]

GREENTECH TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 綠科科技國際有限公司 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準 確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並表明不會就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因 依賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 本公告乃由綠科科技國際有限公司(「本公司」) 自願刊發。 本公司董事會 (「董事會」) 宣佈，Bluestone Mines Tasmania 合營企業 (「BMTJV」) 之雷 尼森項目，其中 YT Parksong Australia Holding Pty Limited (「YTPAH」) 持 50% 權益，二 零二五年四月至六月季度 (「季度」)之生產數量。季度的實際產出與上一季度 (即二零二五 年一月至三月) 對應的數字總結如下： | 生產總結 | 單位 | 截止以下日期止三個月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 二零二五年六月 | 二零二五年三月 | | | | 三十日 | 三十一日 | | 礦石開採噸數 | 噸 | 162,476 | 190,946 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant shift in U.S. policy towards Myanmar, particularly regarding the lifting of sanctions against certain allies of the military government, which raises concerns about human rights and geopolitical implications [2][10]. Group 1: U.S. Policy Changes - On July 24, the U.S. lifted sanctions on several allies of Myanmar's military government, indicating a major policy shift [3][4]. - The U.S. Treasury did not provide an explanation for this decision, and the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comments [7][10]. - The action has been described as alarming by human rights organizations, suggesting it undermines previous efforts to penalize the military regime [10]. Group 2: Myanmar's Rare Earth Production - Myanmar is a major producer of rare earth minerals, with a projected production of 31,000 tons in 2024, a decrease of 12,000 tons from 2023, accounting for 7.9% of global production [2][15]. - The country ranks as the third-largest rare earth producer globally, following China and the U.S. [15]. - Rare earth elements are critical for high-tech applications, including defense and consumer electronics, making Myanmar strategically important for U.S. supply diversification efforts [11][12]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) controls areas rich in rare earth resources, which may become a focal point in geopolitical competition [12][13]. - The U.S. is actively seeking to diversify its rare earth supply chains, and Myanmar's resources are increasingly under scrutiny [11][12]. - The lifting of sanctions may facilitate access to these resources, despite ongoing calls for the military government to cease violence and engage in dialogue with opposition groups [9][10]. Group 4: Tin Production - Myanmar is also the third-largest tin producer globally, with significant contributions to the global supply chain for semiconductors, 5G communications, and defense industries [17][18]. - The country’s tin resources are primarily located in the Wa region, which accounts for 90% of its production [19].

Core Points - The article discusses the historical context of smuggling activities in Southeast Asia, particularly in the Malacca Strait, highlighting the complex interplay between colonial powers and local economies [1][3][10] - It emphasizes the blurred lines between legal and illegal activities, as well as the ongoing struggle between smugglers and state authorities [1][3][11] Group 1: Historical Context - The Malacca Strait is characterized by its narrowness and shallow depth, making it a challenging area for defining international boundaries due to the cultural similarities of the residents on both sides [1][9] - The colonial division of Southeast Asia by the British and Dutch from 1865 to 1915 led to the establishment of new borders, which inadvertently fostered a large underground economy involving opium traffickers, counterfeiters, and smugglers [1][6][10] - The early civilizations in Southeast Asia lacked clear borders, allowing for a fluidity in trade and smuggling activities, particularly during the era of the Srivijaya kingdom, which thrived on controlling trade in the Malacca Strait [3][4] Group 2: Colonial Impact on Smuggling - The Dutch East India Company implemented strict monopolistic policies in the 17th century, leading to violent suppression of local populations and increased smuggling as residents sought to evade taxes [4][5] - By the 19th century, the political landscape had solidified with British and Dutch colonial expansions, leading to the establishment of trade routes and the exchange of territories, which continued to facilitate smuggling activities [5][6] - The economic interactions between colonizers and local populations were complex, with evidence of a dual economy where local producers engaged in smuggling to connect with colonial markets [11][10] Group 3: Modern Implications - The ongoing smuggling activities in Southeast Asia reflect a historical legacy of colonialism, where the boundaries established by colonial powers continue to influence economic behaviors and relationships [1][3][11] - Recent studies indicate that the economic networks among border residents are intricate, challenging the notion of a clear divide between colonial and local economies [11][10] - The article suggests that understanding the historical context of smuggling in Southeast Asia can provide insights into contemporary economic and political dynamics in the region [1][9][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, along with the increasing operating rate of domestic refined tin production capacity, but the decrease in refined tin inventories both at home and abroad compared to last week, may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the negative (0 - 3) and positive (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME tin, are within reasonable ranges. Due to various factors, it is suggested to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - On July 11, Wa State, Myanmar, decided that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees (with an initial incremental output of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a transmission period of 2 - 3 months, totaling 108 mines). Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, on April 9 (with production volumes of 17,300 and 20,000 tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively). These factors may cause the domestic tin ore production (import) volume in July to decrease (increase) month - on - month. Coupled with the decline in domestic tin concentrate processing fees, it may indicate a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [3][22]. - China's recycled tin production in July may increase month - on - month [23][25]. - The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Jiangxi and China (Yunnan) increased (remained flat) compared to last week; China's refined tin production (inventory) volume in July increased (decreased) month - on - month [3][29]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Finance's mining license approval is affected by a corruption investigation and may reduce long - term export quotas, causing the export volume in July to decrease month - on - month. China's refined tin import (export) volume in July may increase (decrease) month - on - month [3][33]. Demand Side - The operating rate (inventory) of China's tin solder production capacity in July may increase (increase) month - on - month [3][36]. - China's solder strip import (export) volume in July may increase (increase) month - on - month [3][38][40]. - China's tinplate production (import, export) volume in July may increase (decrease, decrease) month - on - month [3][44]. Inventory - The social inventory of China's refined tin decreased compared to last week. The inventories of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Chinese tin ingot social inventory, and LME refined tin also decreased compared to last week [12][14]. Price and Spread - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and within a reasonable range, while the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years [6][11]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support level around 248,000 - 260,000 and the resistance level around 274,000 - 280,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support level around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance level around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [3]. - It is suggested to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities regarding the basis and monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME tin [6][11].