Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent fluctuations in tin prices are mainly affected by Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin exports. Although the domestic price may open higher after the holiday, the probability of continuous strengthening is considered low. Attention should be paid to tariff risks [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) 1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 was at a discount of $61.99 per ton, and the domestic spot was at a premium of 300 yuan per ton [8][9]. - Overseas premium has declined, with premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan narrowing [14]. 1.2 Spread - This week, the tin monthly structure changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [17][18]. 1.3 Inventory - This week, the domestic social inventory decreased by 104 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 268 tons [23][24]. - This week, the LME inventory increased by 205 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants dropped to 9.96% [29]. 1.4 Funds - As of this Friday, the settled funds for Shanghai tin were 2.04013 billion yuan, and the fund flow in the past 10 days was in an inflow direction [34][35]. 1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin slightly decreased, while the open interest slightly increased [36][37]. - This week, the trading volume of LME tin slightly decreased, and the open interest continued to decline [41][42]. 1.6 Position - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin slightly rebounded [46]. 2. Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 2.1 Tin Ore - In July 2025, the output of tin concentrate was 6,409 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. In August 2025, 10,267 tons were imported, a year - on - year increase of 16.34%, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 28.61% [50]. - This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan per ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan per ton. The profitability of tin ore imports slightly rebounded [51]. 2.2 Smelting - In August 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,390 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.09% [53][54]. - This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces slightly rebounded to 29.72% [55]. 2.3 Import - In August 2025, 1,296 tons of domestic tin ingots were imported, 1,640 tons were exported, with a net export of 344 tons. Among them, 501 tons of tin ingots were imported from Indonesia to China. The latest import profitability was - 15,038 yuan per ton [60]. 3. Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) 3.1 Consumption - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 15,046 tons, and the actual consumption was 15,843 tons [68]. 3.2 Tin Products - This week, the downstream processing fee slightly decreased. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises rebounded in August to 73.2%. The output and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises slightly decreased in July [70]. 3.3 End - User Consumption - In August 2025, the output of end - user products showed mixed performance. The output of integrated circuits decreased in August, while the monthly output of electronics and smartphones increased. In the home appliance sector, the output of air conditioners decreased, while the output of color TVs and washing machines slightly increased [77]. - In August 2025, the consumption of home appliances and new energy decreased month - on - month [79]. - This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, showing the same trend as tin prices [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, the domestic tin price showed a generally oscillating and strengthening trend, and it increased significantly at the beginning of October due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mines. - In the short - term, the shortage of tin supply is obvious, and the tin price is expected to remain stable at a high level. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress in Myanmar at the end of October [11][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: Although the mining permits in the Wa State of Myanmar have been approved, the resumption of production is slow. It is expected that the supply of tin ore will significantly recover in the fourth quarter. In August 2025, China's imported tin concentrate physical volume was 10,267 tons, unchanged from the previous month. Imports from countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Russia, and Bolivia decreased slightly due to shipping factors, while imports from Myanmar increased. Imports from other regions remained at previous levels [11]. - Supply side: The resumption of tin mines in the Wa State of Myanmar is slow and difficult to increase production before November. Raw material shortages in Yunnan's smelting enterprises still persist. In addition, a large - scale smelting enterprise in Yunnan started maintenance in September, leading to a significant decline in the operating rate in Yunnan this week. In Jiangxi, due to a significant reduction in scrap and insufficient supply of crude tin, the refined tin output remained at a low level. It is estimated that the domestic refined tin output in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month [11]. - Demand side: The new energy vehicle and AI server sectors continue to be booming, but the demand in traditional consumer electronics and home appliances, which account for the majority of demand, remains sluggish. The total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in September 2025 was 27.07 million units, a 7.2% decrease compared to the same period last year. In the short - term, with the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, downstream consumption has marginally improved, and the operating rate of domestic sample tin solder enterprises rebounded to 73.22% in August [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific text summary content provided, only relevant graphs about the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium (0 - 3) are presented [19]. 3.3 Cost Side - The short - term supply of tin ore is generally tight, and the processing fees remain at a low level [27]. 3.4 Supply Side - The resumption of tin mines in the Wa State of Myanmar is slow, and it is difficult to increase production before November. Yunnan's smelting enterprises face raw material shortages, and a large - scale smelting enterprise's maintenance in September led to a significant decline in the operating rate in Yunnan. In Jiangxi, due to a reduction in scrap, the supply of crude tin is insufficient, and the refined tin output remains low. It is estimated that the domestic refined tin output in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month [11]. 3.5 Demand Side - The new energy vehicle and AI server sectors continue to be booming, but the demand in traditional consumer electronics and home appliances remains sluggish. The total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in September 2025 decreased by 7.2% compared to the same period last year. - The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has slightly rebounded, and global semiconductor sales maintain high growth. - Tin consumption in the tinplate field continues to decline, mainly because aluminum cans have almost completely replaced tinplate cans in the beverage packaging field. The PVC output increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year [11][46][57]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - Inventory: The social inventory of tin ingots continued to decline. Last Friday, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 8,352 tons, a decrease of 686 tons compared to September 19 [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto emphasizes the need for continued efforts by various departments to combat illegal tin mining and smuggling activities [1] Group 1 - The President witnessed the asset handover ceremony related to a corruption case in tin mining, highlighting the government's serious commitment to eradicating illegal mining [1] - The call to action includes collaboration among the Attorney General's Office, military, customs, and coast guard to address these issues [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in tin prices is driven by supply concerns following Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining operations, which is expected to significantly impact the country's tin production and exports [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Concerns - Indonesia's President Prabowo Subianto ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal mining sites in Bangka Belitung province, which is expected to prevent losses of up to 450 trillion rupiah (approximately $28 billion) by 2026 [2]. - Approximately 80% of tin production in Bangka Belitung is smuggled abroad through various means, including small boats and passenger ships [2]. - The International Tin Association projected that Indonesia's refined tin output could drop to below 50,000 tons in 2024, marking a 20-year low [4]. Group 2: Price Movements - As of September 29, LME three-month tin prices rose by 2.8% to $35,455 per ton, reaching a peak of $35,510, the highest level since April 4 [2][6]. - The Shanghai tin futures contract also saw a significant increase, climbing 3.9% to a maximum of 283,000 yuan, the highest since April 3 for the main continuous contract [3].

Core Insights - Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung province and the complete blockade of smuggling routes [1] - Bangka Belitung province is a significant tin mining center, playing a crucial role in the global tin supply chain [1] - Since the launch of the special operation on September 1, Indonesian authorities have successfully intercepted nearly 80% of smuggled tin [1] - The president emphasized the rich rare earth minerals contained in tin mining waste, which have been overlooked, and instructed customs to recruit chemical experts for rare earth content testing [1] - The government aims to combat illegal mining and enhance national revenue, with an estimated recovery of 450 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 2.7 billion USD) by 2026 [1]

Core Insights - Since the second quarter of last year, the impact of Myanmar's tin mining ban has led to a significant decline in China's tin ore imports, which have remained at low levels [2] - In August 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates reached 10,267.27 physical tons (equivalent to 4,692.13 metal tons), showing a year-on-year increase of 12.79% but a month-on-month decrease of 4.68% [2] - Cumulatively, from January to August, imports totaled approximately 82,700 physical tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.10% [2] Import Analysis by Country - In August, imports from Myanmar amounted to 2,091.78 tons (equivalent to 593.44 metal tons), representing a year-on-year decrease of 41.00% but a month-on-month increase of 27.81% [3] - Imports from other countries totaled 8,175.49 tons (equivalent to 4,098.69 metal tons), showing a year-on-year increase of 29.94% but a month-on-month decrease of 8.07% [3] Supply Chain Dynamics - Myanmar's Wa State has begun resuming production, but progress is slower than expected due to declining ore grades and increasing mining costs [6] - The reliance on imported reagents from China for the beneficiation process is also raising operational costs, dampening the enthusiasm for resuming production [6] - Australia's tin mines, despite declining reserves, showed significant month-on-month growth in imports in August, primarily due to a recovery from low volumes in July [6] Decrease in Imports from Other Regions - Imports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in August were 2,452.69 physical tons (approximately 1,382.67 metal tons), reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.74% and a month-on-month decrease of 15.56% [7] - Bolivia's imports decreased to 505.80 physical tons (approximately 119.32 metal tons), with a month-on-month decline of 7.45% [7] Market Conditions and Price Outlook - The overall supply of tin ore in China remains tight, with slow recovery in Myanmar and the upcoming rainy season in Africa likely to limit significant increases in import volumes [9] - Domestic tin ingot smelting enterprises are experiencing reduced operating rates due to tight raw material supplies and high costs, which supports tin prices [9] - Although there are signs of slight recovery in the downstream market, actual consumption levels may decline compared to previous years, leading to a cautious approach among enterprises [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai tin market is experiencing a price increase, with the main contract rising over 2%, despite being in a season of weak demand [1]. Supply and Demand - Overall demand for tin is currently weak due to the off-peak consumption season [1]. - Tin ore imports in China decreased slightly in July compared to June, indicating a tightening supply situation [1]. - Although Myanmar's Wa State has gradually resumed production, there has not yet been any significant volume of tin entering the domestic market [1]. Market Influences - The combination of tight supply and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is contributing to a stronger outlook for Shanghai tin prices [1].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the tin industry, specifically the global tin supply and demand dynamics, pricing factors, and production challenges in key regions such as China, Indonesia, and Myanmar [1][2][3][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tin Price Projections**: To ensure a 10% production capacity, the LME tin price needs to gradually rise to $54,000, while the current price in 2025 is approximately $34,000 [1][3]. - **Global Tin Reserves**: As of 2024, global tin reserves are projected to be around 4.3 million tons, with China accounting for 23% of this total [1][4]. - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: In 2025, global tin supply is expected to grow by 1% to 377,000 tons, while demand is projected to increase by 3% to 385,000 tons, resulting in an 8,000-ton deficit [2][13]. - **Impact of Macroeconomic Factors**: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the upcoming consumption peak in September, and the launch of new electronic products are anticipated to drive tin prices upward [1][6][8]. - **Myanmar's Production Challenges**: Myanmar's slow recovery from production halts due to various factors, including geological issues and licensing delays, is expected to limit supply impacts until at least 2026 [7][9]. Additional Important Content - **Declining Ore Grades**: The global decline in tin ore grades is leading to rising production costs, with the complete cost expected to reach $34,000 by 2027 and $54,000 by 2030 [3]. - **Regional Production Insights**: Indonesia, as the second-largest tin producer, faces challenges in mining due to geographical constraints, with significant production drops from major companies like Timah [9][11]. - **Emerging Supply Sources**: South America and Africa are identified as potential future sources of tin supply, with expected production increases in countries like Peru and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, despite political instability [10]. - **Domestic Production Trends**: Domestic tin production in China has seen limited growth due to regulatory constraints, with ongoing projects progressing slowly [11]. - **Consumer Demand Drivers**: The global tin consumption is projected to reach 373,000 tons in 2024, driven primarily by the electronics sector, particularly soldering applications [12]. Recommended Companies - **Xiyu Co., Ltd.**: Noted for its resource expansion capabilities and potential in tailings recovery, with strategic partnerships for a northern industrial base [14]. - **Xinyan Silver**: Expected to see production increases from its projects, contributing several thousand tons to the market [14]. - **Huaxi Nonferrous Metals**: Positioned as a key player in resource integration in Guangxi, with potential production boosts from various mining projects [14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in tin prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic pressures, ongoing supply disruptions, and structural demand differentiation in the market [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The US Markit Manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 54.5, exceeding expectations and indicating the fastest expansion since 2022, which has strengthened the US dollar and put pressure on commodity prices [1] - The imposition of tariffs by the US has increased market uncertainty, leading to a decline in major US stock indices and a cautious trading environment [1] Supply Side Analysis - Global tin supply is heavily concentrated in countries like Myanmar and Indonesia, with production dynamics in these countries directly impacting market supply [1] - Myanmar's production recovery is hindered by slow infrastructure repairs and labor shortages, resulting in lower-than-expected output [1] - Indonesia's refined tin export quotas are subject to domestic policy changes, adding to supply uncertainty [1] - The overall quality of global tin resources is declining, leading to increased mining costs and the exit of smaller mines due to financial and technical constraints [2] Demand Side Analysis - Traditional demand from the electronics sector is weakening due to slower product iterations, particularly in smartphones and tablets, leading to reduced solder demand [1] - Conversely, emerging sectors such as electric vehicle battery manufacturing and photovoltaic component soldering are experiencing rapid growth in tin demand, particularly driven by global clean energy policies [1] Industry Chain Dynamics - Upstream tin mining companies face dual pressures from rising costs and resource depletion, necessitating increased investment in technology [2] - Midstream smelting companies are experiencing fluctuating operating rates due to unstable supply, leading to reduced processing fees and profit margins [2] - Downstream manufacturing companies are compelled to control costs and explore alternative materials, although the short-term irreplaceability of tin in key applications remains significant [2] Short-term Outlook - Tin prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, influenced by the recovery progress in major producing countries and the stability of Indonesia's export policies, alongside the unexpected growth in demand from new energy and photovoltaic sectors [3] - If supply disruptions ease and emerging demand continues to grow, tin prices may find support; conversely, if supply increases unexpectedly while demand growth slows, prices could face downward pressure [3]

Group 1: Report Core View - In H1 2025, China's tin ore imports decreased sharply due to the delayed resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and geopolitical conflicts in the DRC. In Q3, the overall imports are expected to remain at a low level, but the imports from Africa will gradually increase. If the tin mines in Wa State resume production smoothly in Q4, China's tin ore imports are expected to improve significantly [2][5][11] Group 2: 2025 H1 Domestic Tin Ore Imports - In H1 2025, China's tin ore imports decreased by 32.42% year-on-year to 62,100 physical tons. Imports from Myanmar dropped by 75.92% to 13,200 physical tons, while imports from the DRC increased [5] Group 3: Q3 Domestic Tin Ore Imports - In Q3, China's tin ore imports are expected to remain at a low level. In July, the import volume was 10,278 physical tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 13.7%. The decrease mainly came from Myanmar [7] - Although some operators in Wa State, Myanmar, have obtained mining permits, the export volume to China is not expected to increase significantly in Q3. If the resumption is successful in Q4, the monthly import volume is expected to return to 2,000 - 3,000 metal tons [7] Group 4: Tin Ore Imports from Africa - After the Bisie tin mine in the DRC resumed production, production has not been hindered, and imports from the DRC are expected to increase slightly in Q3. Investment in Nigerian tin mines is increasing, and production is expected to grow steadily [8] Group 5: Tin Ore Imports from Other Countries - Bolivia restricts the export of high-grade tin ore, and only low-grade tin ore can be exported, which is highly unstable. Australian tin mine reserves are decreasing, and subsequent production will mainly be stable [8][10]