来源：环球市场播报 作者：娜塔莉亚・克尼亚热维奇 包括瑞安・哈蒙德、丹尼尔・查韦斯在内的高盛团队写道："1990 年以来，市场广度与收益离散度，一 直是驱动共同基金表现的两大最关键因素。" 这一格局剧变，很大程度上源于人工智能应用的普及，其冲击可能颠覆整个行业。几周前软件股惨遭重 挫，随后是保险、财富管理、律师事务所、出版业等多个领域接连受挫。与此同时，随着科技巨头在标 普 500 中的权重突破 30%，投资者纷纷减持，转而加仓与经济周期更相关的公司。 "很多主动型基金经理并非'反对科技'，他们只是不愿再为那少数几只拥挤的巨型科技股和软件股不断 追高，也不想打着'主动管理'的旗号，却只是亦步亦趋跟着指数走。"Roundhill Financial 首席执行官戴 夫・马扎表示，"在市场领涨板块扩散、更多行业开始发力的轮动行情中，愿意配置科技以外板块的做 法终于开始见效 —— 曾经的拖累变成了助推。" 主动型基金受益于股市内部的剧烈轮动。这种轮动让市场广度（衡量有多少股票在参与上涨）对主动管 理者变得愈发重要。彭博数据显示，标普 500 成分股中约 **66%** 的股价高于 100 日均线；标普 500 等权重 ...

Market Overview - The Middle East situation is becoming increasingly tense, leading to heightened risk aversion, resulting in a decline in US stocks and a further drop in Hong Kong stocks on the first trading day of the Year of the Rabbit [1] - As of midday, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 2.28%, the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.6%, and the National Enterprises Index dropped by over 1% [1] Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Index is at 26,544.62, down by 161.32 points or 0.60%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index is at 5,245.10, down by 122.42 points or 2.28% [2] - Semiconductor stocks weakened, with Huahong Semiconductor down over 3%, Shanghai Fudan down over 2%, and SMIC, Beike Micro, and ZTE all down over 1% [2] - Conversely, storage concept stocks performed well, with Lanqi Technology rising over 8% at one point, and Aixin Yuan Zhi increasing by 19.89%, reaching a historical high [2] Sector Highlights - The robotics sector continued its upward trend, with Yujian rising by 19%, Sutech increasing by over 9%, and Ubtech up by over 6% [3] - Oil sector stocks surged, with China Petroleum up by 4.58% and Yanchang Petroleum International up by 5%, driven by rising international oil prices amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran [3] - Within the Hang Seng Technology Index, Baidu Group fell nearly 6%, JD Health dropped over 5%, Tencent Music decreased over 4%, and Bilibili fell over 5% [3] Additional Stock Movements - Software sector stocks mostly declined, with Kingdee International down over 5% and Tian Shi Resources down over 3% [5] - In the consumer sector, both discretionary and staple consumer stocks collectively fell, with Laopu Gold down over 3% [5] - Spot gold prices fell by approximately $20, currently reported at $4,991.15 per ounce, while spot silver decreased by $1, now at $77.64 per ounce [5]

Market Overview - The three major US stock indices closed lower on Thursday, with the Dow Jones down 267.50 points (0.54%) at 49,395.16, the Nasdaq down 70.91 points (0.31%) at 22,682.73, and the S&P 500 down 19.42 points (0.28%) at 6,861.89 [2] - Concerns over risks in the private credit sector led investors to withdraw from financial stocks, while escalating tensions between the US and Iran put additional pressure on the market [2] - The S&P 500 index nearly erased all its gains for the year, and the Nasdaq has seen a year-to-date decline of 2.41% [2] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks showed weak performance, with Apple down 1.43%, Netflix down 1.27%, Microsoft down 0.29%, Alphabet down 0.16%, and Nvidia down 0.04% [2] - In contrast, Meta rose 0.24% and Tesla increased by 0.12% [2] Company Highlights - Amazon officially surpassed Walmart to become the world's highest-grossing company, with Amazon's revenue at $716.9 billion for the fiscal year ending in December, compared to Walmart's $713.2 billion for the fiscal year ending in January [2] - Walmart's annual sales fell below Amazon's for the first time [2] Chinese Concept Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.35%, with notable declines in Alibaba (down 0.96%), Pinduoduo (down 0.94%), and Baidu (down 0.55%) [3] - However, some stocks like Niu Technologies rose by 2.08% and Zhihu increased by 0.86% [3] Financial Sector Developments - Blue Owl Capital announced the sale of $1.4 billion in loan assets and tightened liquidity arrangements for investors, leading to a sell-off in private credit stocks [4] - Blue Owl Capital's stock fell by 5.93%, while Blackstone and Apollo Global Management also experienced declines of 5.37% and 5.21%, respectively [5] - The tightening of liquidity arrangements raised concerns about the liquidity risks associated with private credit funds [5] Software Sector Challenges - The software sector faced pressure, with Salesforce down 1.30%, Intuit down 2.06%, and Cadence Design Systems down 2.76% [5] - Concerns about AI potentially disrupting the industry have contributed to the sector's challenges, with a statement from Mistral AI's CEO suggesting that over 50% of enterprise software could be replaced by AI [6] Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices continued to rise, with WTI crude oil futures up 1.90% at $66.43 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures up 1.86% at $71.66 per barrel [7] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran, have been a driving factor behind the rising oil prices [7] - Additionally, a surprise decline in US crude oil inventories reported by the EIA further supported the increase in oil prices [8] Gold Market Update - Spot gold rose by 0.42% to $4,998.50 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 0.09% to $5,014 per ounce [9]

Market Overview - On February 19, U.S. stock indices fell collectively due to multiple negative factors, including tightening liquidity in the private credit industry and escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 267.5 points, a decline of 0.54%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.28% and 0.31%, respectively, with the Nasdaq experiencing a cumulative decline of over 2% since 2026 [1][2]. Private Credit Industry - A liquidity crisis in the private credit sector was a core reason for the market's weakness. Blue Owl Capital announced the sale of $1.4 billion in loan assets and tightened investor liquidity, leading to a significant drop in its stock price by 1%. This triggered a collective decline in the private credit sector, with major firms like Blackstone and Apollo Global Management seeing their stock prices fall by over 5% [2][3]. Geopolitical Tensions - The geopolitical tension between the U.S. and Iran has become another major market disturbance. President Trump indicated a decision on potential military action against Iran would be made within ten days, which has heightened investor caution and led to a general sell-off of risk assets [3]. Corporate Earnings and Guidance - Discrepancies in corporate earnings and guidance have intensified market volatility. Walmart's fourth-quarter revenue and profit exceeded expectations, but its annual profit guidance fell short, resulting in a stock price drop of over 1%. In contrast, Amazon surpassed Walmart in projected net sales for 2025, reaching $716.9 billion [4]. Economic Data - Recent economic data showed initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 206,000, significantly below expectations, indicating resilience in the labor market. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 16.3, the highest since September of the previous year. However, the trade deficit unexpectedly widened to $70.3 billion in December 2025, with the annual goods trade deficit reaching a record $1.2409 trillion, an increase of $25.5 billion or 2.1% from the previous year [4]. Market Sentiment - According to a recent survey by the American Association of Individual Investors, the proportion of bearish retail investors has exceeded bullish investors for the first time since November of the previous year, with bearish, bullish, and neutral sentiments at 36.9%, 34.5%, and 28.5%, respectively. This reflects a growing caution among investors [5]. Sector Rotation - The U.S. stock market is undergoing a rotation in leading sectors. Excluding the top companies, other stocks in the S&P 500 are in urgent need of earnings momentum. Despite a decline in valuations for the "Magnificent Seven," their price-to-sales ratios remain at historical highs, indicating they are not in undervalued territory [5].

Market Overview - On February 19, U.S. stock markets opened lower and closed down, with all three major indices declining [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.54% to 49,395.16 points, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.28% to 6,861.89 points, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.31% to 22,682.73 points [2][3] Asset Management Sector - Blue Owl Capital announced the sale of $1.4 billion in loan assets from three private debt funds, raising concerns among investors about potential losses in the private loan sector [4] - Following this news, several asset management companies experienced significant stock declines: Blue Owl Capital down 5.93%, Blackstone down 5.37%, Apollo Global Management down 5.21%, Ares Management down 3.08%, and Brookfield down 2.68% [4] Software Industry - The software sector also showed weakness, with notable declines in stocks such as Cadence Design Systems down 2.76%, SAP down 2.41%, Intuit down 2.06%, and ServiceNow down 1.33% [4] - Concerns about artificial intelligence potentially disrupting the software industry were highlighted, with Mistral AI's CEO stating that over 50% of enterprise software could be replaced by this technology [4] Energy Sector - Energy stocks mostly rose amid ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with ConocoPhillips up 0.97% and Chevron up 0.49% [5] Retail Sector - Walmart's stock fell by 1.38% after the company provided a fiscal year profit guidance that fell short of market expectations, overshadowing its better-than-expected fourth-quarter results [5] Technology Stocks - Major tech stocks had mixed performances: Nvidia down 0.04%, Apple down 1.43%, Alphabet down 0.13%, Microsoft down 0.29%, Amazon up 0.03%, Meta up 0.24%, and Tesla up 0.12% [6][7] Chinese Stocks - The LiFeng Chinese stock index fell by 0.54%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index decreased by 0.35% [8] - Popular Chinese stocks mostly declined, with Bawang Tea down 2.5%, Trip.com down 2.28%, Alibaba down 0.96%, and Pinduoduo down 0.94% [8] Company News - Amazon surpassed Walmart to become the highest-grossing company globally, reporting $717 billion in sales for the fiscal year ending December, compared to Walmart's $713.2 billion [9] - AMD announced it will support a $300 million loan to Crusoe, backed by chip products [10] - Hims & Hers Health is acquiring Australian digital health company Eucalyptus for up to $1.15 billion, which boosted its stock by approximately 7% in pre-market trading [11] - Yorkville America Equities LLC announced plans to acquire the Point Bridge America First ETF, focusing on investments aligned with former President Trump's "America First" ideology [12] - BE Semiconductor Industries reported fourth-quarter revenue of €166.4 million, exceeding analyst expectations, and projected a revenue growth of 5%-15% for the first quarter [13]

事实上，Mistral AI首席执行官Arthur Mensch表示，企业超50%的软件可能被AI技术替代。 随着伊朗核计划对峙推升油价延续涨势，华尔街保持警惕。 北京时间2月20日凌晨，美股周四收跌，道指跌超260点。投资者撤出金融板块并密切关注美伊紧张局 势，标普500指数年内涨幅近乎归零。 道指跌267.50点，跌幅为0.54%，报49395.16点；纳指跌70.91点，跌幅为0.31%，报22682.73点；标普 500指数跌19.42点，跌幅为0.28%，报6861.89点。 截止周四收盘，标普500指数年内累计上涨0.2%，道指涨幅超过2%。但科技股权重较高的纳斯达克指数 2026年已累计下跌逾2%。 私募市场和另类资产管理公司蓝猫头鹰资本（Blue Owl Capital）宣布出售14亿美元贷款资产后将收紧投 资者流动性，引发市场对隐秘私募贷款领域亏损的担忧，投资者纷纷撤离私人信贷板块。该公司股价下 跌6%，黑石集团、阿波罗全球管理公司等机构股价均下挫5%。 除了资产管理公司，软件板块同样承压。赛富时股价下跌逾1%，财捷集团跌幅超2%，铿腾电子下滑近 3%。该板块近期成为市场痛点，因投资者担忧人 ...

自特朗普推出关税政策以来，投资者将目光转向其他市场的趋势进一步增强。高盛、拉扎德等机构称， 美国在全球市场的主导地位可能持续减弱。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 罗伯・西特罗恩，发现资本创始人、亿万富翁对冲基金经理，公开阐述其投资策略："我做空美国市 场、做多全球市场。" 他指出，过去一年以美元计价的美国资产回报率在全球20个市场中表现最弱，较新兴市场低约30个百分 点。"美国在20个市场中排名第20位，差距非常大。" 西特罗恩列举美国市场表现将持续不佳的数项理由：全球投资者对美国资产显著超配，美国机构平均将 约80%的资金投资于美国市场，后续资金或将从美国转向其他市场；美国资产估值偏高，交易价格较全 球其他资产高出约40%；美国市场面临人工智能业务发展不确定性，企业AI变现计划不清晰，市场对高 额AI投资支出存在担忧，软件、房地产和卡车运输等板块已出现抛售压力。 他更看好新兴市场投资机会，将墨西哥列为首选，认为墨西哥已深度融入美国经济，拥有出色的领导层 与竞争力强劲的本土企业，多数企业凭借垄断或寡头地位具备巨大竞争优势 ...

城堡证券：美股散户疯狂"抄底"软件股，"扫货"资金量创历史新高。在受人工智能工具威胁的软件股暴跌后，华尔街正在重估其被过度抛售的可能性，而散 户投资者正在排队逢低买入。据城堡证券股票及股票衍生品策略主管Scott Rubner称，散户交易员在城堡证券平台上购买软件股票的支出创下历史新高。软 件领域的抛售潮波及整个市场，投资者纷纷抛售所有被认为会被人工智能技术取代的公司的股票，即使只有极小风险。当包括对冲基金在内的专业投资者以 创纪录的速度加大反向做空力度时，散户投资者却持相反观点，逢低买入。此外，散户需求已不再局限于科技领域。该公司年初至今的数据显示，该群体更 青睐材料、房地产、金融、通信服务和工业等行业。这股势头也已蔓延至现金股票市场之外。2026年，散户参与期权市场的程度已达到历史高位。 中东局势惹关注，黄金、白银小幅上涨。截至发稿，黄金现货涨0.27%，报4991.16美元/盎司;白银现货涨1.19%，报78.10美元/盎司。消息面上，知情人士透 露，美军已做好"最早于本周末对伊朗发动军事打击"的准备，但美国总统特朗普尚未最终决定。消息人士称，白宫已获悉，在近几日美军向中东大幅增兵 后，军方已做好周末发 ...

2月19日，步入 2026 年 2 月中旬，全球金融市场呈现出显著的避险特征，比特币（BTC）在美股开盘后 迅速下挫并失守 67000 美元整数关口。NCE 外汇表示，当前数字资产与传统科技股的联动性已达到阶 段性高点，特别是被视为行业风向标的 iShares 科技软件 ETF （IGV） 持续走弱，直接对比特币的短期 估值构成了下行压力。周二 IGV 指数再度录得 3% 的跌幅，这种板块性的资金流出迅速蔓延至数字资 产领域，迫使比特币打破了此前在 68000 美元至 70000 美元区间维持的震荡格局。 从行业深度来看，相关调研认为软件板块的集体挫败主要源于人工智能（AI）技术的颠覆性影响。随 着 AI 工具的快速迭代，传统软件服务商的商业护城河正面临重塑。由于市场认知中常将比特币归类 为"软件属性"资产，这种逻辑关联导致了恐慌情绪的共振。NCE 外汇通过数据监测发现，纳斯达克与 标普 500 指数分别回落 0.8% 和 0.6%，而 MicroStrategy 及各大矿企股票也普遍出现 4% 至 5% 的跌幅。 这表明在宏观不确定性面前，投资者正在重新审视科技类资产的估值逻辑，风险偏好短期内明显收缩。 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a dramatic turnaround from a significant drop to a recovery, primarily influenced by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Market Reaction - The market opened with a fearful atmosphere, with major indices like the Dow Jones dropping over 300 points and the Nasdaq falling more than 1.2% due to concerns over AI and inflation [3]. - However, by the end of the trading day, the major indices managed to recover, with the Dow up 0.04%, Nasdaq up 0.14%, and S&P 500 up 0.1%, completing a "V-shaped" recovery [4]. Individual Stock Performance - Apple Inc. stood out with a significant increase of over 3%, acting as a key support for the indices, while Nvidia and Amazon also saw gains of over 1%. In contrast, Google and Microsoft experienced slight declines, indicating market hesitance [6]. Federal Reserve Signals - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee provided reassurance by stating that if inflation continues to decline towards the 2% target, there could be multiple rate cuts in 2026, which boosted market confidence [7]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly mentioned that there is approximately 75 basis points of rate cut potential before reaching neutral rates, further encouraging bullish sentiment [9]. - However, Fed Governor Barr expressed caution, emphasizing the need for more evidence of inflation moving towards the target before making any rate changes, indicating a delicate balance in the labor market [9]. AI Market Dynamics - Despite fears regarding AI's disruptive potential, Goldman Sachs reported that analysts are raising earnings expectations for software stocks, with a 5% increase in two-year forward earnings expectations over the past three months [11]. - The report suggests that software companies are effectively leveraging AI to enhance efficiency and meet earnings expectations, countering the narrative of impending disruption [13].