Economic Performance - In April, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year and 0.22% month-on-month, while the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, growing by 5.1% year-on-year [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to April totaled 147,024 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [1] Structural Challenges - Despite the positive growth in industrial and consumer sectors, structural challenges remain, including the need for further improvement in residents' income and the ongoing bottoming out of the real estate market [2] - The external environment poses risks such as geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions, but there is potential for China to diversify its export markets and enhance its high-tech product offerings [2] Manufacturing Growth - The equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry achieved high growth rates of 9.8% and 10% respectively, indicating ongoing industrial structure optimization [2][3] - Government support through fiscal measures and subsidies is suggested to bolster emerging technology products and enhance market efficiency [2] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is currently in a bottoming phase, and policies should focus on stabilizing demand while ensuring risk control [4] - Short-term measures may include lowering mortgage rates and optimizing city-specific support policies to meet housing demand [4][5] Consumer Spending - The introduction of differentiated subsidies is recommended to stimulate consumption, particularly in lower-tier cities and rural areas [6] - The shift in consumption patterns from "external display" to "internal entertainment" highlights the importance of service consumption in driving economic growth [7][8] Foreign Trade - In April, exports increased by 9.3%, with a notable shift towards emerging markets, which helps mitigate risks from traditional markets [11] - Future focus areas for foreign trade include enhancing the resilience of supply chains, deepening regional cooperation, and improving the competitiveness of products in international markets [12]

宏 观 研 究 [Table_Title] 杜征征 执业证书编号：S1380511090001 联系电话：010-88300843 邮箱：duzhengzheng@gkzq.com.cn 工业增加值 0 2 4 6 8 10 2022-04 2022-07 2022-10 2023-01 2023-04 2023-07 2023-10 2024-01 2024-04 2024-07 2024-10 2025-01 2025-04 % 工业增加值:累计同比 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 消费 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 -12 -6 0 6 12 18 24 2021-08 2021-12 2022-04 2022-08 2022-12 2023-04 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 % 社会消费品零售总额:当月同比 [T相关报告 able_Report] 1．《一季度开门红 内需逐步发力—3 月及一 季度经济数据点评》 关税不确定性尚存 扩内需政策加快落地 —4 月经济数据点评 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 ...

Economic Growth - The region's economy showed stable growth from January to April, with industrial production increasing significantly, as the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 8.0% year-on-year [1] - The high-tech manufacturing sector experienced remarkable growth, with the added value increasing by 28.9% year-on-year, driven by advancements in "Artificial Intelligence+" [1] Industrial and Service Sector Performance - Key sectors such as optical electronic devices, lithium-ion batteries for vehicles, new energy vehicles, service robots, and industrial robots saw substantial production increases, with year-on-year growth rates of 130%, 66.5%, 47.3%, 32.0%, and 30.6% respectively [1] - The service industry continued to recover, with high-tech service enterprises reporting an 18.7% increase in revenue year-on-year, particularly in intellectual property services and technology transfer services, which grew by 150% and 69.0% respectively [1] Consumer Market and Investment - The consumer market remained stable, with retail sales of consumer goods above designated size increasing by 3.3% year-on-year, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, particularly in communication equipment and home appliances, which saw increases of 52.8% and 38.6% respectively [2] - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.4% year-on-year, with industrial investment rising by 11.3%, accounting for 44.2% of total fixed asset investment [2] Foreign Trade and Public Budget - The total foreign trade import and export volume reached 258.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, with significant growth in trade with ASEAN, EU, Africa, and the Middle East [2] - General public budget expenditure was 210.46 billion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year, with 79.5% allocated to social welfare [2] Employment and Consumer Prices - The consumer price index saw a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while urban employment figures showed positive trends with 143,900 new jobs created [3]

从消费市场来看，1-4月，江苏社会消费品零售总额15991.9亿元，同比增长5.5%。"以旧换新"政策加力 扩围，4月当月限额以上家用电器和音像器材类、汽车类商品零售额同比分别增长了13.2%、9.1%；新 能源汽车类零售额增长59.7%。1-4月，江苏限额以上批发业、零售业销售额同比分别增长了8.5%、 11.3%；限额以上住宿业、餐饮业营业额同比分别增长了6.6%、9.3%。 工业生产者价格领域，1-4月，江苏工业生产者出厂、购进价格同比分别下降2.5%、2.3%。4月份，江苏 工业生产者出厂、购进价格同比分别下降了2.8%、2.7%。(苏讯) 1-4月，江苏固定资产投资同比下降了0.2%，而从重点领域来看，1-4月江苏基础设施投资同比增长了 10.9%，制造业投资同比增长了4.7%。 大规模设备更新扎实推进，1-4月江苏设备工器具购置投资同比增长了11.1%。 近日，江苏省统计局发布数据显示，1-4月江苏工业经济成绩亮眼，其中装备制造业、高技术制造业、 数字产品核心制造业均实现了两位数的较快增长。 工业方面，1-4月，江苏规模以上工业增加值同比增长8.1%。4月，规模以上工业增加值同比增长8%， 其中装 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the effective implementation of "Two Heavy" projects and the expansion of "Two New" policies, which are crucial for enhancing economic development and stability [1][2][3] - "Two Heavy" projects focus on strategic areas such as technological self-reliance, urban-rural integration, and ecological security, with significant funding allocated for infrastructure and agricultural development [2][3] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) aims to complete the project list for "Two Heavy" construction by the end of June, ensuring high standards in implementation and efficiency [3] Group 2 - "Two New" initiatives involve large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer product replacements, which have become vital for boosting consumption and investment [4][5] - Retail sales in key categories such as home appliances and furniture have shown substantial growth, contributing to an increase in overall social retail sales [4] - Investment in equipment and tools has risen significantly, with a notable contribution from sectors closely related to "Two New" policies, indicating a positive trend in manufacturing and technological upgrades [4][5] Group 3 - The economic outlook remains stable, with domestic demand expanding and external markets diversifying, as evidenced by a 4.7% year-on-year increase in social retail sales [6][7] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment sectors are experiencing rapid growth, with significant increases in production output for servers and industrial robots [6] - The NDRC plans to accelerate fund allocation and improve the efficiency of fund usage to support the ongoing implementation of "Two New" policies [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. is expected to support the resilience of foreign trade in the second quarter, but the future of economic negotiations remains uncertain due to escalating strategic competition between the two countries [1][12]. Group 1: Trade and Economic Impact - In April, China's exports to the U.S. decreased by 21% year-on-year, while imports fell by 14%, indicating a significant impact from the tariffs, but the overall trade balance was not completely disrupted [2]. - China's overall export growth in April was 8.1%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 2.0%, supported by increased exports to non-U.S. countries, such as a 21% increase to ASEAN [2]. - The industrial added value in April grew by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 5.5%, driven by resilient foreign trade [2]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Structural Changes - The high-tech manufacturing and digital product sectors showed strong performance, with year-on-year growth rates of 10% for both categories, indicating a shift towards industrial upgrading [3]. - Investment in high-tech services increased by 11.3% year-on-year from January to April, with information services seeing a remarkable 40.6% growth [3]. Group 3: Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 5.8% year-on-year from January to April, supported by accelerated fiscal policies [4]. - Local government special bonds issuance reached 1.19 trillion yuan, a 65% increase year-on-year, indicating a proactive approach to funding infrastructure projects [4]. Group 4: Financial Market Resilience - The Chinese financial market demonstrated strong resilience, with the A-share market rebounding by 7.1% from its low in April, and the onshore and offshore RMB appreciating by 1.2% and 2.2% respectively [5][6]. - Despite the pressures from U.S. tariffs, foreign capital continued to show interest in Chinese assets, with net inflows into domestic bonds and stocks [6]. Group 5: Currency and Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB appreciated against the USD, but its real effective exchange rate index fell by 2.9% in April, indicating a passive appreciation that does not harm export competitiveness [8]. - The foreign exchange market remained stable, with banks reporting a surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales, driven by increased willingness to settle in RMB [7]. Group 6: Consumer and Real Estate Market Trends - Consumer spending showed signs of weakness, with retail sales growth slowing to 5.1% in April, below market expectations, largely due to declining automobile sales [10]. - The real estate market faced challenges, with sales volume and value declining by 2.1% and 6.7% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a weakening demand [11].

5月21日，记者从省统计局获悉，4月份，全省经济延续稳中向好的发展态势，工业保持较快增长，投 资、消费增速有所加快，主要指标增速均高于全国平均水平。 新兴产业快速增长。4月份，全省规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长13.5%；新能源汽车产业、新 一代信息技术产业增加值同比分别增长14.5%、11.5%，分别高于全省规模以上工业增加值增速6.5个、 3.5个百分点。1—4月，全省高技术制造业投资同比增长24.6%，比一季度加快7.9个百分点；全省新型 能源发电量占规模以上工业发电量比重为23.5%，比一季度、2024年全年分别提高1.7个、6.1个百分 点。 总的来看，4月份全省经济运行延续稳中向好的良好态势，展现出高质量发展的蓬勃生机和巨大潜力。 （记者 胡舒彤） 责任编辑： 路娇 1—4月，全省固定资产投资同比增长6.4%，比一季度加快1个百分点，高于全国2.4个百分点；全省亿元 及以上项目完成投资同比增长10.6%，比一季度加快3.0个百分点，拉动全省投资增长6.7个百分点。1— 4月，全省工业投资同比增长26.6%，比一季度加快4.7个百分点，高于全国14.9个百分点，延续了自上 年以来的快速增长态势。 ...

民营经济是高质量发展的重要基础，资本市场是促进民营经济发展壮大的重要平台。近期，A股上市公 司2024年年报披露完毕，民营上市公司"成绩单"出炉。在资本市场助力和民营企业向"新"发展实践下， 民营上市公司韧性与活力持续释放。 目前，A股近三分之二的上市公司是民营企业。科创板、创业板、北交所约八成公司是民企，新三板约 九成是民企。 2024年，分板块看，沪市主板民企营业收入同比增长2.6%，高于市场整体水平。多项经营指标呈现优 化：总资产周转率同比转增，存货周转率同比提升，经营性现金流同比增幅逐季扩大。科创板中，有 195家民营企业2024年实现营业收入、净利润双增长，41家营业收入增速超50%，86家净利润增速超 50%。 深市和北交所民企同样呈现经营质效提升态势。深市方面，2024年深市民营企业中超七成、1586家公司 实现盈利。北交所中，2024年67%的民企营业收入保持增长，26家公司营业收入同比增长30%以上。 民营上市公司经营质效提升，离不开民营企业加大研发投入、坚持创新驱动，核心竞争力不断提升。 其中，有多家行业或细分领域龙头公司全年研发投入超百亿元，研发投入占营收比重超10%的公司也为 数不少， ...

Economic Performance Overview - In the first four months of 2025, Yunnan Province's industrial added value increased by 5% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.2% compared to the first quarter [1] - The mining industry saw a significant growth of 9.9%, while the manufacturing and electricity, heat, gas, and water supply industries grew by 4.6% and 4.4% respectively [1] Traditional and High-end Manufacturing - Traditional industries in Yunnan showed signs of recovery, with the electricity sector's added value growing by 4.7%, and the non-ferrous industry increasing by 15.4% [1] - High-end manufacturing performed well, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 13.2% and 11.4% respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth [1] - The electronics sector's added value rose by 14.5%, while the new energy battery and green aluminum industries saw remarkable growth of 79% and 7.8% respectively [1] Energy Production and Clean Energy - Yunnan is advancing its green energy initiatives, with industrial power generation reaching 123.252 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [1] - Clean energy sources accounted for 80.7% of total power generation, marking a 1.6% increase from the previous year [1] Consumer and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Yunnan reached 418.981 billion yuan, growing by 3.8% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as the first quarter [2] - Fixed asset investment saw a slight increase of 0.1%, with the primary industry investment declining by 12.8% and the secondary industry investment growing by 4.2% [2] - The service sector's revenue for the first three months was 90.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.6% [2] Economic Outlook and Policy Measures - Overall, Yunnan's economic indicators showed stable growth, but challenges such as weak expectations and insufficient effective demand remain [2] - The province aims to implement policies to stabilize growth, promote industrial transformation, and enhance investment and consumption to support high-quality development [2]

Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment in April 2025 shows a steady improvement, with industrial production growing robustly and manufacturing investment increasing by 8.8% in the first four months, effectively offsetting a decline in real estate investment, which fell by 10.3%[5] - Social retail sales for January to April increased by 4.7% year-on-year, supported by the effects of trade and tourism[5] - Industrial added value rose by 6.4% year-on-year in the first four months, with strong performance in equipment manufacturing[5] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.0% year-on-year in April, with manufacturing investment at 8.8% and infrastructure investment at 5.8%[22] - The decline in real estate investment is significant, with a cumulative decrease of 10.3% in the first four months, indicating a need for policy support to stabilize the sector[22] Inflation and Pricing - The current economic environment is characterized by low inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at -0.1% and the Producer Price Index (PPI) at -2.7%[10] - The focus on price recovery is crucial, with core CPI recovery linked to the stabilization of the real estate market, which is essential for internal demand recovery[5] Structural Dynamics - The "Manufacturing Nation" strategy continues to strengthen economic resilience, effectively countering the negative impacts of real estate and consumption on economic growth[5] - The ongoing structural transformation is expected to gradually reduce the drag from real estate and consumption, allowing for a more balanced economic outlook[5] Future Outlook - The economic environment is entering a "dragon in the field" phase, suggesting a potential turning point in negative narratives, with a more optimistic view on RMB assets[5] - The macroeconomic policy is expected to dynamically calibrate and gradually strengthen, indicating a shift in market expectations[6]