Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The economic recovery in this round is better than expected, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the subsequent physical quantity data will weaken. The production and investment of high - tech industries are strong during the transformation of new and old driving forces, but there are still problems such as insufficient demand, volume - for - price strategy, and weak private investment in some industries. The real estate market may remain stable at a low level, and the progress of tariffs eases some pressure. The annual nominal economic growth target in 2025 is around 4.9%, and it is necessary to observe whether this will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years. Considering the trend of stock - bond ratio in the balance - sheet reduction cycle, the trading value of both stocks and bonds is currently limited, and the trading value of bonds may gradually emerge if the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rises above the lower limit (1.7%) of the predicted range [6] Section Summaries Production - In April 2025, the added value of large - scale industries in China maintained a relatively high growth rate of 6.1% (previous value: 7.7%), with manufacturing and mining as the main driving forces, growing at 6.6% and 5.7% respectively. High - tech manufacturing (10%) and equipment manufacturing (9.8%) in the manufacturing industry maintained high - level production. The export delivery value growth rate dropped significantly to 0.9% from the previous 7.7%. The national service production index increased by 6.0% year - on - year, a 0.3 - percentage - point decline from the previous value [2] Consumption - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year, a 0.8 - percentage - point decline from March. Catering revenue increased by 5.2% (previous value: 5.6%). Optional consumption such as cultural office supplies, home appliances, gold and silver jewelry, furniture, and communication equipment maintained double - digit high - growth rates. However, the growth rate of automobile retail was low, dropping by 4.8 percentage points to 0.7%, and there was still a volume - for - price problem. Grains and oils maintained double - digit high - growth rates, and the sustainability of consumption - level recovery needs verification. Inflation data still reflected the problem of stronger supply than demand [3] Fixed - Asset Investment - In April, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year (previous value: 4.2%). The manufacturing investment growth rate was 8.8%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decline from the previous value. Industries such as transportation equipment, automobile manufacturing, and general equipment had relatively high growth rates. The narrow - sense infrastructure investment growth rate was 5.8%, the same as the previous value. The growth rate of private investment was 0.2% (previous value: 0.4%), remaining at a relatively high level since the second half of 2024. After excluding real - estate investment, the private investment growth rate was 5.8% (previous value: 6.0%), the lowest since 2023. Real - estate investment declined significantly, with a growth rate of - 10.3% (previous value: - 9.9%). The decline in real - estate sales area continued to narrow to - 2.8% (previous value: - 3.0%), and the growth rate of unsold commercial housing inventory continued to decline. The decline in new construction, construction, and completion areas was relatively stable, and the year - on - year decline in new construction area bottomed out and rebounded. The real - estate climate index remained at a phased high [4][5] Asset Allocation - The economic recovery is better than expected, but some industries have problems such as insufficient demand and weak private investment. The real - estate market may remain stable at a low level. The nominal economic growth target for 2025 is around 4.9%. Considering the stock - bond ratio in the balance - sheet reduction cycle, the trading value of both stocks and bonds is limited, and the trading value of bonds may emerge if the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rises above 1.7% [6]

1—4月，社会消费品零售总额达到16.2万亿元，同比增长4.7%，比去年全年加快1.2个百分点；直播带 货、即时配送等新业态新模式蓬勃发展，实物网上零售额增长5.8%。 21世纪经济报道记者 周潇枭 北京报道5月20日，国家发展改革委召开5月份新闻发布会，国家发展改革 委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超对当前经济热点问题进行了回应。 5月19日，国家统计局公布4月经济数据。面对4月中下旬陡增的对美出口关税等不利外部环境，我国经 济顶住压力实现平稳增长。 李超回应记者提问表示，4月经济运行向新向好，展现出强大的抗压能力和内生动力。从需求方面来 看，消费投资稳定增长、出口顶住巨大的外部压力保持增长，表明我国内需空间不断拓展、外需市场更 加多元。 4月份，固定资产投资持续扩大，制造业投资增长8.8%。以人民币计价的外贸出口额同比增长9.3%；锂 电池、电动汽车出口分别增长44.4%、25.7%；对东盟、韩国、日本、中亚五国出口快速增长，对共 建"一带一路"国家进出口加快增长。 从供给方面来看，生产供给较快增长，新动能持续释放。随着新质生产力不断培育壮大，创新优势加快 形成，并不断转化为新的增长点。4月份，高技术制造 ...

Economic Growth and Industrial Performance - In April, China's industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.1% year-on-year, marking a relatively fast growth rate for 2024 [1] - The service production index increased by 6% year-on-year, with information and business services showing stable growth, outpacing the overall service sector [1] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Social retail sales of consumer goods rose by 5.1% year-on-year in April, driven by the effects of the old-for-new consumption policy, which contributed 1.4 percentage points to the total growth [2] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4% year-on-year from January to April, with equipment and tool purchases increasing by 18.2%, contributing 64.5% to the overall investment growth [2] High-tech Manufacturing and New Production Capacity - The added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 10% year-on-year, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.9 percentage points [4] - Key sectors such as aerospace equipment manufacturing and integrated circuit manufacturing saw significant growth, with increases of 21.4% and 21.3% respectively [4] Digital and Green Transformation - The added value of digital product manufacturing grew by 10% in April, with smart device manufacturing and electronic components experiencing accelerated growth [6] - New energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for vehicles showed remarkable production increases of 38.9% and 61.8% respectively [6] Consumer Market Trends - The retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment surged by 38.8%, while furniture and communication equipment also saw significant growth [10] - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.8% year-on-year, reflecting a growing trend in e-commerce [10] Policy Impact on Consumption - The implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy and improvements in the consumption environment have significantly boosted the consumer market [12] - The demand for green and upgraded consumption continues to rise, contributing to the stability and recovery of the consumer market [12]

Economic Performance - China's economy shows resilience and positive momentum despite external challenges, with major indicators demonstrating stable growth and accelerated innovation [1][4] - In April, the industrial production increased by 6.1% year-on-year, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors growing by 9.8% and 10% respectively, highlighting the transformation and upgrading of the industrial sector [1] Service Sector - The service sector also exhibits steady growth, with the service production index rising by 6% in April, marking the second-highest monthly growth this year [2] - The digital transformation continues to drive growth in modern service industries, with information transmission and software services growing by 10.4% and leasing and business services by 8.9% [2] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand is gradually recovering, supported by consumption and investment policies, with retail sales of household appliances and cultural products significantly outpacing overall retail growth [2][3] - From January to April, fixed asset investment increased by 4%, with equipment investment rising by 18.2%, contributing 64.5% to total investment growth [3] Foreign Trade - Despite a challenging external environment, China's foreign trade remains stable, with total goods import and export value increasing by 2.4% from January to April, reflecting strong resilience and international competitiveness [3] - The growth in trade with ASEAN and Belt and Road countries has accelerated, with private foreign trade enterprises becoming key players in stabilizing foreign trade [3] Policy Support - The Chinese government is implementing more proactive macroeconomic policies to support economic stability and growth, including recent monetary easing measures [4] - The focus on high-quality development is expected to help China navigate challenges and contribute positively to global recovery [4]

在复杂多变的外部环境中，中国经济正展现出一种独特的韧性与智慧——以做强国内大循环的确定性，应对国际大循环的不确定性。 内需为主导、内部可循环是大国经济的独特优势。我国是超大规模经济体，经济体量、市场容量都很大，产业体系完整，配套能力强，供给和需求都能够 支撑国内大循环。 在全球贸易格局剧烈动荡的当下，贸易保护主义的浪潮仍在汹涌，关税冲击频繁搅动着国际市场的平静。在这样复杂多变的局势中，中国经济的"双循 环"战略愈发凸显其前瞻性和必要性。 ■中国经济时报评论员 近期，全球经济形势愈发复杂，贸易保护主义的阴霾仍未散去，关税冲击等不稳定因素依然存在。在此背景下，我国经济的"双循环"战略愈发显得重要， 做强国内大循环已成为中国经济行稳致远的战略之举。国务院近日召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，强调要把发展的战略立足点放在做强国内大循环上， 以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远，努力实现高质量发展。 构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局，是习近平总书记在2020年4月中央财经委员会会议上首次提出的。从2020年提出"双循 环"，到如今把发展的战略立足点放在做 ...

Economic Overview - In April, China's economy demonstrated resilience despite external pressures, supported by proactive macroeconomic policies that boosted market demand and corporate production [1][2] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need to enhance policies for stabilizing employment and the economy, with timely implementation of new policies based on changing circumstances [1] Industrial Production - Industrial production showed steady growth, with the industrial added value for large enterprises increasing by 6.1% year-on-year in April and 6.4% for the first four months [5][6] - The growth in industrial production is attributed to the effective release of macroeconomic policies and the stimulation of domestic demand through various initiatives [4][6] Consumer Market - Retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan in April, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.1% and a 4.7% increase for the first four months [7] - The government aims to enhance consumer spending power and improve the consumption environment to further stimulate economic growth [7] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 147,024 billion yuan in the first four months, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% and an 8.0% increase when excluding real estate [9][10] - Manufacturing investment is growing rapidly, and there is significant potential for investment in various sectors, including social welfare and infrastructure [8][10]

■中国经济时报记者 张娜 周子勋 面对外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面，4月份我国经济顶住压力稳定增长，延续向新向好发展态势。 国家统计局5月19日公布的数据显示，与国内市场联系紧密的市场销售和服务业继续稳中有升。受国际市场影响较大的货物出口和工业生产保持总体稳 定。表明我国经济在复杂环境中展现出显著韧性。 4月经济延续回升向好态势 4月份，我国经济延续回升向好态势，社会消费品零售总额、服务业生产指数分别增长4.7%和5.9%，较一季度均提升0.1个百分点。出口增长7.5%，规模以 上工业增加值保持6.4%的稳定增速。 商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院研究员彭波表示，虽然当前国内外经济形势依然严峻，但4月份多项数据充分表明中国经济展现出良好的韧性与潜力，尤 其是在创新驱动发展战略推动下，新兴产业快速发展，传统产业转型升级加快，为实现高质量发展目标奠定了坚实基础。下一阶段，需持续扩大内需、深 化产业升级、稳定外贸外资，推动经济向新向好态势进一步巩固，为全年高质量发展奠定基础。 受国内外环境复杂变化影响，4月份规上工业增加值、全国服务业生产指数、社会消费品零售总额等主要经济指标增速较3月份有所回落。国务院 ...

Group 1 - Industrial production has seen rapid growth, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by around 10%. The production of 3D printing equipment and industrial robots has surged by over 50%. This growth is attributed to macro policy measures that have accelerated industrial upgrades, leading to enhanced production efficiency and quality [1][3] Group 2 - Market sales are on the rise, driven by the effectiveness of the "old-for-new" consumption policy. Retail sales in categories such as home appliances, cultural and office supplies, and furniture are experiencing high growth. Various local departments are implementing special actions to boost consumption, enriching consumption scenarios and continuously releasing consumption potential [4][6] Group 3 - Foreign trade has shown resilience, with total goods import and export volume increasing by 2.4% year-on-year from January to April 2025, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter. This growth is notable against the backdrop of rising unilateralism and protectionism, supported by China's strong manufacturing capabilities and the proactive response of foreign trade enterprises through market diversification strategies [8][10] Group 4 - Investment is steadily expanding, with high-tech industry investments leading the way. Investments in information services and computer and office equipment manufacturing are in a high growth phase, indicating optimistic market expectations and strong demand for industrial upgrades, reflecting the trend of China's economic transition towards innovation-driven growth [10][12]

Economic Performance - In April, China's economy demonstrated significant resilience amid complex conditions, with major economic indicators showing stable and rapid growth [1] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.1% year-on-year and 0.22% month-on-month, marking a notable performance in monthly data since last year [1] - The service production index grew by 6.0% year-on-year, reaching the second-highest monthly growth rate this year [1] Domestic Demand - Positive changes were observed in domestic demand, with substantial sales growth in products related to the "old for new" consumption initiative, significantly supporting retail sales [1] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment surged by 38.8% year-on-year, continuing to accelerate this year [1] - Retail sales for cultural office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment increased by 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% year-on-year, respectively, all exceeding the overall retail growth rate [1] Investment Trends - The effects of "two heavy" and "two new" policies are becoming increasingly evident, with investment in equipment and tools rising by 18.2% year-on-year from January to April, contributing 64.5% to total investment growth [1] - Investment in consumer goods manufacturing and equipment manufacturing grew by 13.4% and 8.2% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of industrial upgrading [1] Foreign Trade - China's foreign trade showed strong resilience, with total goods import and export value increasing by 2.4% year-on-year from January to April, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - Private enterprises' imports and exports rose by 6.8% year-on-year, outperforming the overall foreign trade situation [2] - Exports of electromechanical products grew by 9.5% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend [2] High-Tech Manufacturing - The added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 10% year-on-year in April, with aerospace equipment manufacturing and integrated circuit manufacturing growing by 21.4% and 21.3%, respectively [2] - The added value of digital product manufacturing also achieved a 10% year-on-year increase [2] - Production of new energy products, such as electric vehicles and charging piles, rose by 38.9% and 43.1%, respectively, reflecting the deepening of green and low-carbon transformation [2] Real Estate Market - In April, housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities remained generally stable, with the year-on-year decline in first, second, and third-tier cities continuing to narrow [2] - The real estate market's transactions and prices are stabilizing, moving towards a recovery phase [2] Economic Resilience Factors - China's economic resilience is attributed to a stable economic foundation, numerous advantages, strong resilience, and significant potential [3] - The large-scale market, accelerated restructuring of the entire industrial chain, and continuous empowerment of new production factors provide systematic support for economic development [3] - Recent policy measures, including interest rate cuts and the establishment of new policy financial tools, aim to support technological innovation and expand consumption [3]

Economic Growth and Policy Implementation - The national economy has shown resilience and stable growth in April, supported by proactive macro policies that effectively respond to external shocks [1][2] - Major production demand indicators have seen significant growth compared to the previous year, with industrial value-added increasing by 6.1% year-on-year in April [2] - Fixed asset investment has also expanded, with a year-on-year growth of 4% in the first four months [2] Trade and External Resilience - Despite a challenging international environment, China's foreign trade has maintained steady growth, with total goods import and export value increasing by 2.4% year-on-year in the first four months [3] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative has grown by 3.9%, indicating a diversification in trade partnerships [3] Consumer Market Dynamics - The consumer market has shown stable growth, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 4.7% year-on-year in the first four months, supported by policies promoting consumption [4] - The "old for new" consumption policy has positively impacted sales in various categories, with significant year-on-year growth in household appliances and communication equipment [4] New Economic Drivers - New consumption drivers are emerging, with online retail and instant retail gaining popularity, leading to a 5.8% year-on-year increase in physical goods online retail sales [4] - The high-tech manufacturing sector has also seen robust growth, with a 10% year-on-year increase in value-added for high-tech manufacturing in April [3] Policy Effectiveness and Future Outlook - The effectiveness of macro policies has been evident, with a focus on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations to ensure sustainable economic development [5][8] - The government aims to enhance consumer capacity and improve the consumption environment to further unlock consumption potential [5]