Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The net surplus pressure of pure nickel still exists, but at the current position, it is also difficult to decline significantly due to the support of nickel ore and cost. Recently, the prices of NPI and nickel sulfate are relatively strong. Continue to pay attention to the supply-side news from Indonesia. The reference for the bottom support of Shanghai nickel has been slightly raised to the 120,000 level [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel (2511) rose 1.08% to 122,990 compared to the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 20 to 2,300. The average price of domestic electrowon nickel was reported at -100 - 200. The average price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron decreased by 0.5 to 955 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery-grade nickel sulfate increased by 50 to 28,200 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Indonesia will start the 2026 approval work in October. The adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may still disrupt the supply of the ore end at the beginning of next year. Some smelters may stock up on nickel ore in advance in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will not decline significantly this year and may rise slightly. NPI remains strong due to cost support and the expectation of demand recovery, but the improvement space for the stainless steel terminal is limited, and the subsequent upward space may be restricted. The demand for stockpiling before the double festivals supports the price of nickel salts to remain strong [7]. 3.2 Industry News - **Congo's Cobalt Export Ban**: The Democratic Republic of the Congo is considering extending the cobalt export ban for at least two months. The decision is to allow the cobalt price to recover further and to have more time to implement the quota framework. The decision needs to be approved by the presidential palace. If the ban is extended, it is expected to drive up the MHP cobalt coefficient and keep the smelting enterprises' inventory below the safety level [8][10] - **Indonesia's Mining Crackdown**: Indonesia's forest law enforcement task force will conduct a centralized crackdown on illegal mines. The country is a major producer of coal, nickel, tin, and copper, as well as the largest exporter of palm oil [10] - **FPX Nickel's Sustainability Initiatives**: FPX Nickel has joined the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and the United Nations Global Compact, demonstrating its commitment to responsible mineral exploration and project development [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance and market position of Inner Mongolia Xingye Silver Tin Mining Co., Ltd, which saw a stock price increase of 5.01% to 28.50 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 50.606 billion CNY [1] - The company was established on August 23, 1996, and listed on August 28, 1996, focusing on the mining and smelting of non-ferrous and ferrous metal resources [1] - The main revenue composition of the company includes silver (34.80%), tin (30.81%), zinc (19.32%), lead (5.12%), iron (3.34%), antimony (2.90%), copper (2.01%), gold (0.66%), bismuth (0.32%), and other minerals (0.72%) [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, Xinhua Fund has a significant position in Xingye Silver Tin, with its Xinhua Industry Cycle Rotation Mixed A Fund holding 437,300 shares, unchanged from the previous period, representing 5.17% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has generated an estimated floating profit of approximately 594,700 CNY today [2] - The Xinhua Industry Cycle Rotation Mixed A Fund was established on July 21, 2010, with a current scale of 133 million CNY and has achieved a year-to-date return of 26.06% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gao Peng Mining announced a placement of up to 210 million shares, representing approximately 16.7% of the enlarged share capital, at a price of HKD 0.133 per share, which is a discount of about 19.39% from the closing price on the day of the announcement [2] Financial Summary - If fully placed, the total expected proceeds will amount to HKD 28.02 million, with a net amount of HKD 27.32 million [2] - Approximately 36.60% of the net proceeds will be allocated for capital expenditures related to the Yiduo Rock project, while the remaining 63.40% will be used for general working capital of the group [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market indices collectively declined, while Intel rose nearly 9% and the Chinese concept index increased by 0.42% [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices will reach at least $4,050 next year [1] - U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly increased by 2.9% month-on-month in August [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 218,000, the lowest in nearly two months [1] - The final GDP for the U.S. in Q2 was revised up to 3.8%, marking the fastest growth rate in nearly two years [1] - The final PCE price index for Q2 in the U.S. increased by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding expectations [1] - The core PCE price index for Q2 in the U.S. had an annualized final increase of 2.6% quarter-on-quarter, also above expectations [1] - Japanese stocks closed at a historical high, with a cumulative increase of 14.69% this year [1] - The U.S. Commerce Department has taken actions against several U.S. entities, including placing three on the unreliable entity list [1] - The price of tungsten has surged, indicating a systemic re-evaluation of the strategic resource's value [1] Group 2 - Meituan reported a revenue of 178.398 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [2] - Zijin Mining's market value has surpassed $100 billion, ranking it third among global mining giants [2] - Southbound funds net bought 11 billion Hong Kong dollars in Hong Kong stocks, significantly increasing positions in Alibaba, Tencent, and SMIC [2] - Dongfang Yuhong plans to invest 600 million yuan in the construction of a new materials industry chain project in Lin County [2] - Jihong Co. expects a year-on-year increase of 65.72% to 76.86% in net profit excluding non-recurring items for the first three quarters [2] - ST Aowei has been flagged as an investment risk due to its controlling shareholder being listed as a dishonest executor [2]

Market Movements - Oracle shares fell over 5% while Tesla dropped more than 4%, resulting in a market value loss of $64.5 billion (approximately 460.2 billion RMB) in one night [1] - Intel surged nearly 9% as it engaged in discussions with Apple regarding potential investments to strengthen its business foundation [3] - Cryptocurrency and weight-loss stocks saw significant declines, with Hut 8 down over 7% and Circle down over 5% [5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP for Q2 was revised to an annualized quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.8%, exceeding expectations of 3.3% [8] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for Q2 was reported at 2.6%, higher than the anticipated 2.5% [8] - Analysts noted that the strong GDP report indicates persistent inflation pressures, which may limit the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts [9] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points may not significantly alter its expected path for future cuts due to ongoing inflation concerns [9] - The probability of maintaining rates in October is 14.5%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 85.5% [10]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imported pecans from Mexico and the United States, citing evidence of sales below normal value and significant market impact on domestic products [2] - Sichuan province is implementing housing support policies tailored to individual cities to stabilize real estate consumption and enhance the supply of quality housing [3] - Guangzhou has introduced new policies allowing real estate companies to sell self-held housing, aimed at alleviating financial pressure on developers [4] Group 2 - International copper prices surged, reaching a two-month high due to a mining accident in Indonesia that is expected to reduce copper sales and delay full operations until mid-2026 [5] - As of the end of August 2025, the net asset value of public funds in China reached 36.25 trillion yuan, with 164 fund management institutions operating in the market [7] - The Digital Renminbi International Operation Center has officially commenced operations, focusing on cross-border digital payment and blockchain services [8] Group 3 - The Ministry of Commerce has urged the U.S. to take positive actions to remove unreasonable tariffs on soybean trade to foster bilateral trade and global economic stability [9] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has expressed strong opposition to "involution" competition in the copper smelting industry, emphasizing the need for regulatory measures to control capacity expansion [10] Group 4 - Zhejiang Xiantong plans to increase investment in Haohai Xingkong and establish a joint venture for robotics business [12] - China National Petroleum Engineering has signed a $2.524 billion contract for a seawater pipeline project in Iraq [12] - Guizhou Province's investment in infrastructure projects has led to significant contract wins for companies like China Railway and Century Hengtong [12]

Group 1: Market Impact - The closure of Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine due to a fatal landslide is expected to significantly disrupt global copper supply, potentially leading to a price increase and improved profitability for copper companies [1][2] - Analysts predict a loss of 500,000 tons of copper supply in the next 12 to 15 months, with possible further losses of 1 to 2 million tons, equating the impact to the simultaneous closure of three major copper mines [1][3] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Copper is increasingly recognized as a critical material for green energy transition and digital economy development, with electric vehicles using four times more copper than traditional fuel vehicles [2] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that by 2030, data centers powering AI servers could consume an additional 1 million tons of copper, indicating strong future demand [2] Group 3: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its price forecast for copper, suggesting an upward risk to its previous estimate of $9,700 per ton for December 2025, now expecting prices to stabilize between $10,200 and $10,500 per ton [2] - The long-term outlook for copper prices remains bullish, with expectations of reaching $10,750 per ton by 2027 due to challenges such as increased mining depth and declining ore grades [2] Group 4: Company Performance - Jiangxi Copper Co. reported a revenue of approximately 256.03 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 4.97% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 19.78% to about 4.45 billion yuan [4] - Zijin Mining's copper production reached 566,853 tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, with copper sales contributing 27.8% to total revenue [4] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. achieved a copper production of 353,600 tons in the first half of 2025, with revenue from mining operations increasing by 29.05% to 31.446 billion yuan [4] - Minmetals Resources reported a total copper production of 140,368 tons in Q2 2025, a 54% increase year-on-year, driven by improved output from three copper mines [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jihai Resources (02489.HK), has announced a placement agreement to issue up to 400 million shares at a price of HKD 1.18 per share, representing a discount of approximately 19.2% from the market price on the agreement date [1] Group 1: Placement Details - The placement will be conducted through joint placement agents, including Huafu International, Fangde Securities, and First Shanghai [1] - The number of shares to be placed represents 20% of the total shares issued as of the announcement date [1] - The total expected proceeds from the placement are estimated to be HKD 472 million, with a net amount of approximately HKD 462 million after expenses [1] Group 2: Use of Proceeds - Approximately 50% of the net proceeds (or HKD 231 million) will be allocated for the acquisition of potential gold mining projects [1] - About 25% of the net proceeds (or HKD 115.5 million) will be used to accelerate the expansion of the company's business [1] - The remaining 25% of the net proceeds (or HKD 115.5 million) will be utilized for general working capital and other corporate purposes [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts have led to a decrease in USD deposit rates by several foreign banks, with domestic banks following suit, indicating a potential for further declines in the future [2][4] - There is a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, with some advocating for aggressive measures while others express caution due to inflation concerns [2][3] - The U.S. stock market has experienced declines, influenced by rising Treasury yields and economic data that may affect future Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates [2][3] Group 2 - Li Xunlei, Chief Economist at Zhongtai International, highlights the coexistence of opportunities and risks in the tech sector, suggesting a cautious approach to investments in U.S. and A-shares [3] - Some private equity firms are shifting their focus from tech stocks to sectors like cyclical, consumer, and high-end manufacturing due to concerns over short-term risks in the tech sector [4] - The digital RMB international operation center has officially launched in Shanghai, aimed at facilitating cross-border financial transactions and enhancing connectivity with global financial infrastructures [5]

Group 1 - The fourth Mining Industry Financial Forum was held in Shanghai, focusing on the theme of "Financial Deep Empowerment for the Upgrading and Reconstruction of the Mining Industry Chain" [1] - Over 200 experts from government, industry, finance, and academia participated to discuss new trends and opportunities in financial services for the real economy [1] - China Minmetals Corporation aims to enhance its global competitiveness as a leading metal mining enterprise by leveraging technological innovation and resource integration [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission highlighted the ongoing collaboration between the Shanghai government and China Minmetals since the strategic cooperation agreement signed in early 2023 [2] - The partnership focuses on industrial clustering, innovation platform construction, and financial business collaboration to boost regional economic development [2] Group 3 - Keynote speeches addressed the need for a strong financial sector to support manufacturing and consumption in China, emphasizing the establishment of robust monetary and capital markets [3] - Discussions included the importance of equity financing to match the development of new productive forces and the role of primary mining companies in the mineral industry chain [3] Group 4 - Minmetals Capital announced the establishment of a mining finance research consortium with China University of Geosciences (Beijing) and the Development Research Center of the China Geological Survey [4] - This consortium aims to create a practical and forward-looking mining finance research platform to enhance industry influence [4]