Domestic News - In the first eight months of the year, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China increased by 0.9%, reversing a 1.7% decline in the first seven months [2] - In August, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises saw a significant improvement, turning from a 1.5% decline in July to a 20.4% increase [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has intensified efforts to regulate online seed sales, aiming for data integration with major e-commerce platforms to enhance regulatory precision [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new round of growth stabilization measures for the automotive industry, including optimizing tax incentives for new energy vehicles [4] Industry Developments - The 2025 World New Energy Vehicle Conference highlighted the need for collaborative development and market consumption expansion in the automotive sector [4] - A report on the innovation status of the top 1,000 private enterprises in R&D showed a total R&D expenditure of 1.43 trillion yuan, a 2.78% increase from the previous year [4] - The report also indicated that these enterprises hold 1.4281 million valid patents, reflecting a 27.58% year-on-year growth [4] International News - Turkish Airlines signed a procurement agreement with Boeing for 150 aircraft, including 75 optional orders, to support its fleet upgrade plan [6] - A power outage affected over 2.2 million users in three states in Mexico due to a fault during maintenance work on transmission lines [6] - Reports indicate that Hamas has agreed to a ceasefire proposal from the U.S., which includes the release of hostages and a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza [7]

Core Viewpoint - Fortescue Metals Group announced the establishment of a global decarbonization alliance during the UN General Assembly, partnering with four leading Chinese companies to accelerate global industrial decarbonization efforts [1] Group 1: Partnership and Collaboration - The alliance includes BYD, LONGi Green Energy, XCMG Group, and Envision Energy, which will integrate advanced technologies and manufacturing capabilities from China in the renewable energy sector [1] - BYD will provide electric vehicles and battery technology, LONGi Green Energy will contribute photovoltaic solutions, XCMG Group will supply zero-emission mining equipment, and Envision Energy will offer smart wind power and energy storage systems [1] Group 2: Goals and Impact - The participation of these Chinese companies is expected to significantly enhance the efficiency and economic viability of Fortescue's goal to achieve "true zero emissions" by 2030 [1] - Andrew Forrest, Executive Chairman of Fortescue, emphasized that China is rapidly expanding its green technology manufacturing scale, and collaboration with Chinese enterprises will greatly improve decarbonization efforts [1] Group 3: Significance of Chinese Technology - This collaboration marks the formal recognition of Chinese green technology companies as core players in global industrial decarbonization, showcasing China's technological strength and value in international cooperation in the carbon neutrality field [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent copper prices have shown a breakout upward trend, with both London and Shanghai copper futures reaching new short-term highs, attracting significant investment interest in copper-related stocks in the A-share market [1] Supply Concerns - The recent suspension of operations at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, owned by a major U.S. mining company, has raised concerns about tightening copper supply [1] Macroeconomic Environment - The current macroeconomic environment for copper is stable, with the Federal Reserve restarting its interest rate cut cycle and a weakening impact from tariff factors [1] Demand Factors - The growth in demand from the renewable energy sector is viewed as a positive factor for future copper prices, suggesting potential for further price increases [1] Price Dynamics - Future copper pricing is expected to be influenced primarily by demand factors, despite the potential for overreactions to supply disruptions caused by mining incidents [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that since 2025, there have been frequent disturbances in copper mines, but most of these disturbances are short-lived, resulting in limited supply reductions. [1] Supply Impact - The Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg copper mines are currently the most significant sources of supply disruption, with Grasberg expected to reduce supply by 200,000 tons in Q4 2025, which may help in depleting electrolytic copper inventories in China. [1] - By 2026, the combined supply reduction from Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg is projected to reach 400,000 tons, potentially offsetting all global copper mine increases, primarily contributed by Chinese mines such as Jiulong Copper and Mirador. [1] Market Dynamics - Domestic electrolytic copper social inventories have been fluctuating since September, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation in China. [1] - The expectation of increased copper demand driven by AI-related infrastructure development, alongside frequent disturbances in copper mines and a globally loose fiscal and monetary environment, suggests a potential upward trend in copper prices. [1] - The price of gold is also expected to exert some influence on copper prices. [1] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality copper mining companies as potential investment opportunities. [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent copper prices have shown a significant upward trend, driven by supply concerns following the suspension of operations at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, owned by Freeport-McMoRan, which has raised fears of tightening copper supply [1][2][3] Supply Side Analysis - The Grasberg copper mine, the second largest globally, has announced a production halt due to an accident, leading to a downward revision of copper sales forecasts for Q4 2023 and the entirety of 2026, with expected production reductions of approximately 35% for copper and gold [2][3] - The mine's production was previously stable at over 700,000 tons annually, with a target of 770,000 tons for 2026, meaning a loss of around 260,000 tons of copper supply due to the incident [2][3] - The supply constraints are exacerbated by a lack of new mining capacity and ongoing production losses, leading to a negative processing fee environment and a significant imbalance between copper ore supply and refined copper availability [3][4] Demand Side Analysis - Despite slow growth in traditional consumption sectors, emerging industries such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI are expected to drive future copper demand [5][6] - The current negative processing fee situation may lead to a more challenging environment for smelting operations in 2026, further impacting supply dynamics [5][6] Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with reduced uncertainty regarding tariffs and a potential 50 basis points interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could support copper prices [4][6] - Analysts predict that copper prices may continue to rise, with forecasts suggesting that LME copper could range between $9,800 and $11,000 per ton in Q4 2025, while Shanghai copper futures may range from 80,000 to 84,000 yuan per ton [6] - The Grasberg mine's shutdown is expected to widen the supply gap for copper concentrate, significantly affecting the copper market from Q4 2025 to 2026 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Perpetua Resources is experiencing significant stock price growth, driven by plans to establish a critical antimony refining facility in the U.S. to enhance domestic supply [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Perpetua Resources' stock rose over 7% on Friday, marking a 90% increase year-to-date [1] - The company is in discussions with Glencore and Trafigura to collaborate on building an antimony refining plant in the U.S. [1] - Last week, Perpetua Resources received U.S. government approval to begin construction of its antimony mine located approximately 138 miles (222 kilometers) north of Boise, Idaho [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The new mine is set to become the largest source of antimony supply in the U.S., a critical mineral used in manufacturing bullets, solar panels, and other products [1] - Currently, there are no domestic antimony resources in the U.S., highlighting the importance of this development for national supply [1] Group 3: Executive Insights - CEO Jon Cherry expressed optimism about expanding domestic mineral processing capabilities and emphasized the importance of making informed, market-based decisions when selecting partners [1]

Core Viewpoint - Perpetua Resources (PPTA.US) has seen a significant stock increase of over 7%, reaching a historical high, and has surged 90% year-to-date, driven by plans to establish an antimony refining plant in the U.S. to boost domestic supply [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Perpetua Resources is in discussions with Glencore and Trafigura to collaborate on building an antimony refining facility in the U.S. [1] - The company has received U.S. government approval to begin construction of its antimony mine located approximately 138 miles (222 kilometers) north of Boise, Idaho, which will become the largest antimony supply source in the U.S. [1] - The CEO of Perpetua Resources, Jon Cherry, expressed optimism about expanding domestic mineral processing capabilities and emphasized the importance of making informed, market-based decisions when selecting partners [1] Group 2: Industry Context - Antimony is identified as a critical mineral used in the production of bullets, solar panels, and other products, highlighting its importance in various industries [1] - Currently, there are no domestic antimony mining resources in the U.S., indicating a significant opportunity for Perpetua Resources to fill this gap in the market [1]

降息后分歧加剧，鲍威尔重申风险管理！美政府停摆逼近，特朗普对乌口风骤变，抛出关税"连环炮"。阿里再获木头姐建仓，加密资产行情失速…本周你错 过哪些刺激行情？ 非美货币方面，受强美元走势影响，欧元、英镑、澳元、日元兑美元本周均整体录得下跌，其中欧元兑美元料将四周来首次收跌，英镑和澳元兑美元连续第 二周下跌，美元兑日元连续第二周上涨。 本周国际油价有望录得近三个月来最大单周涨幅，美布两油均一度涨超4%，主要受到乌克兰对俄罗斯能源基础设施袭击以及美国原油库存意外下降的双重 推动。此外，美国经济数据强于预期，以及伊拉克库尔德地区恢复石油出口的消息也对油价产生了一定影响。 风险资产方面，美股三大指数先涨后跌，周初再度创出历史新高，科技股尤其是苹果和英伟达领涨；但自周二起市场获利回吐压力加大，叠加宏观数据扰 动，三大指数连续回调。 加密货币本周大跌，以太坊在周四跌破4000美元/枚，正式开启技术熊市，较8月份的历史高点累计下跌超20%。比特币一度失守11万美元/枚。 投行观点分享 行情回顾 美元指数本周整体呈现"先弱后强"的格局，行情驱动主要来自对美联储降息预期的再定价和宏观数据的超预期表现。周初连续收跌主要因为投资者重 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Anti - involution policies will continue throughout the 15th Five - Year Plan, providing a bottom - support for industrial product prices. Domestic economy is under marginal pressure and requires more policy support. Overseas, the Fed has restarted the easing process, and the expectation of interest rate cuts this year is strong, which is beneficial for overseas manufacturing recovery and expanding domestic policy space. [10][80] - In the fourth quarter, the black industry will be affected by the logic of expectation and real - world trading. The raw materials in the black industry chain are stronger than the finished products. Steel is mainly supported by cost and positive macro - expectations in the fourth quarter, and will operate in a volatile manner. [80] - Iron ore prices are supported by strong demand, but the accumulation of port inventories will restrict the upward space. It is expected to continue to operate in a volatile and strong manner in the short term, but will face adjustment pressure after the peak season. [80] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **Steel**: In the third quarter, steel prices improved due to policy expectations and cost support. In July, prices rose significantly; in August, they fell due to the cooling of anti - involution and weak demand; in September, they bottomed out with policy support. [5][7] - **Iron Ore**: In the third quarter, iron ore prices strengthened due to policy expectations and strong demand. In July, prices rose significantly and then were under pressure but still trended strongly overall. [8] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Domestic Anti - involution**: Since July, anti - involution has received high - level attention. It is expected to run through the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the long - term policy expectation of "anti - involution" supports industrial product prices. [10] - **Fed Interest Rate Cut**: On September 17, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The market expects another two interest rate cuts this year. The impact on the black industry is relatively small. [13] - **US Economic Performance**: The US manufacturing and service PMIs in September were lower than expected. Retail sales and manufacturing output in August were strong, and the Q2 GDP was revised upwards. [20] - **Domestic Economic Data**: China's economic data in August showed marginal weakness. Industrial added value, social consumption, and fixed - asset investment all missed expectations. Policy support is needed. [23] - **August Social Financing**: In August, social financing performance was weak, and credit demand was still weak. M2 growth stagnated, and M1 growth slowed. [30] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Terminal Demand** - **Real Estate**: Real estate investment and sales continued to weaken, and the demand for construction steel remained weak. [31] - **Infrastructure**: Infrastructure investment growth slowed in the first eight months of 2025, but the proportion of special bonds invested in infrastructure increased, and there may be positive signals of marginal improvement. [38] - **Automobiles**: Automobile production and sales were stable. In August, production and sales increased year - on - year, and new energy vehicle production and sales also grew significantly. [41] - **Excavators and Ships**: In August 2025, excavator production and sales increased year - on - year. Ship exports from January to August increased by 24.4% year - on - year. [44] - **Exports**: In August 2025, steel exports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Overall exports had some resilience, but attention should be paid to the pressure in the fourth quarter. [45] - **Steel Demand** - **Rebar**: In the third quarter, rebar demand was weak, and the weak pattern was difficult to change. [50] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: In the third quarter, hot - rolled coil demand was resilient, but it may face challenges in the fourth quarter. [50] - **Steel Supply** - **Steel Mills**: Steel mills had good profits, and the blast furnace operating rate was high. In the peak season, high - level supply may continue, and attention should be paid to demand matching. [53][59] - **Crude Steel Output**: In August 2025, China's crude steel output decreased year - on - year. Global crude steel output in August increased slightly year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. [56] - **Inventory** - **Steel**: In the third quarter, steel inventory accumulated. Rebar inventory began seasonal destocking, and hot - rolled coil inventory continued to accumulate. [63] - **Iron Ore**: In the third quarter, port inventory of iron ore was relatively balanced. In the fourth quarter, port inventory pressure may increase, and steel mill inventory remained low. [78] - **Price Difference**: In the third quarter, the hot - rolled coil to rebar price difference was high and has now converged. It is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter. [64] - **Iron Ore Supply and Demand** - **Supply**: In August, iron ore imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The shipments of the four major mines recovered in the second quarter, and the production targets for the 2026 fiscal year were raised. [68][69] - **Demand**: In the third quarter, iron ore demand was stronger than last year. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output were high, but attention should be paid to downstream demand performance. [75] 4. Future Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Anti - involution policies will support industrial product prices. The Fed's interest rate cuts are beneficial for overseas manufacturing and domestic policy space. Focus on the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and domestic policy space. [80] - **Supply - Demand**: In the fourth quarter, the black industry will be affected by expectations and reality. Steel will operate in a volatile manner, and iron ore prices will face adjustment pressure after the peak season. [80]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company is transitioning from a geological exploration firm to a comprehensive mining enterprise, focusing on lithium, minor metals, and copper [18]. - The company has significant advantages in the minor metals sector, particularly in cesium and rubidium, which are expected to contribute to stable profits [46]. - The lithium segment is positioned for cost optimization and increased competitiveness, with a focus on resource self-sufficiency [75]. - The copper segment is anticipated to become a key growth driver following the acquisition of high-quality copper mining assets [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to be 5,364 in 2024, 6,150 in 2025, 7,795 in 2026, and 10,168 in 2027, with growth rates of -10.8%, 14.7%, 26.7%, and 30.4% respectively [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) is forecasted at 757 in 2024, 445 in 2025, 1,063 in 2026, and 1,733 in 2027, with growth rates of -65.7%, -41.3%, 139.1%, and 63.0% respectively [2]. - Earnings per share (in yuan) are expected to be 1.05 in 2024, 0.62 in 2025, 1.47 in 2026, and 2.40 in 2027 [2]. Business Segments Overview Minor Metals - The company has a strong resource advantage in cesium and rubidium, with significant pricing power due to high market concentration [46]. - The new germanium and gallium projects are expected to contribute to performance starting in 2025 [46]. Lithium - The company has been actively acquiring quality lithium mines since 2018, enhancing resource security and reducing costs [75]. - The lithium segment is expected to have a stable bottoming out of prices, with projected sales volumes of 42,000 tons in 2025, 45,000 tons in 2026, and 52,000 tons in 2027 [8]. Copper - The acquisition of the Kitumba copper mine is set to enhance the company's position in the bulk metal sector, with a planned production capacity of 60,000 tons per year starting in 2026 [7][9]. - The copper market is expected to remain tight, with prices projected to stay high due to limited new supply [7]. Valuation and Market Potential - The report estimates the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 at 4.45 billion, 10.63 billion, and 17.33 billion yuan respectively [7]. - The target market capitalization for 2026 is projected to be 36.8 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 17.36% from the current market cap of 31.4 billion yuan [7].