Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and with the weakening cost support, it is expected that plastics will continue to show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Analysis - On November 26, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. The new capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) were recently put into production, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly [1][4]. - As of the week of November 21, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% month - on - month. The agricultural film is still in the peak season with stable orders, but the peak season is less than expected. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline in the future [1][4]. - In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in the same period in recent years. The Wednesday petrochemical early inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 655,000 tons, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year [1][4]. - The cost of raw material oil decreased. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that the latest sanctions imposed by the US and the West did not affect Russia's oil production. Trump's administration tried to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky showed an open attitude towards peace talks, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The plastic 2601 contract decreased by 1.31% to close at 6,707 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 9,240 lots to 497,599 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PE spot markets declined, with the price change ranging from - 80 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,770 - 7,150 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,620 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,930 - 7,600 yuan/ton [3].

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月26日 【行情分析】 PVC2601合约减仓震荡运行，最低价4466元/吨，最高价4501元/吨，最终收盘于4489元/吨， 在20日均线下方，跌幅0.42%，持仓量减少33859手至1227649手。 基差方面： 11月26日，华东地区电石法PVC主流价下跌至4445元/吨，V2601合约期货收盘价在4489元/ 吨，目前基差在-44元/吨，走弱13元/吨，基差处于中性偏低水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.32个百分点至78.83%，PVC开工 率转而小幅增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期， 只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度 反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单环比回升。只是中国台湾台塑12月份报价普遍 下跌30-60美元/吨。上周社会库存小幅增加，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The L2601 contract of polyethylene fell 1.31% to close at 6,707 yuan/ton. Last week, the impact of Zhongtianhechuang's shutdown continued, and new maintenance units were added in Wanhua Chemical, Zhongying Petrochemical, and Jilin Petrochemical, leading to a decline in PE production and capacity utilization. The downstream operating rate increased slightly, with a slight decline in the agricultural film operating rate and a small increase in the packaging film operating rate. Factory and social inventories decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was not significant. Oil - based and coal - based profits remained in a theoretical loss state. This week, the Shanghai Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical units are planned for maintenance, while the Zhongying Petrochemical, Zhongtianhechuang, and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical units are scheduled to restart, so PE production and capacity utilization are expected to increase month - on - month, with relatively high supply. The demand center of greenhouse films has shifted south, and southern orders support the high operating rate of agricultural film enterprises; the orders for packaging films have decreased, and the operating rate is expected to decline. In terms of cost, due to statements from US and Ukrainian officials indicating that Ukraine has in principle agreed to the peace agreement proposed by the US, international oil prices closed lower yesterday. In the short term, the situation of supply exceeding demand for LLDPE may continue, with limited cost - side support, and L2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the daily K - line focusing on the support around 6,680 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 6,707 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the 1 - month contract closed at 6,707 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the 5 - month contract closed at 6,768 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan; the 9 - month contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan. The trading volume was 396,126 lots, an increase of 148,413 lots, and the open interest was 497,599 lots, an increase of 9,240 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was - 61, down 3. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 517,178 lots, an increase of 15,973 lots; the short positions were 619,508 lots, an increase of 23,786 lots; the net long positions were - 102,330 lots, a decrease of 7,813 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,865.22 yuan/ton, down 22.17 yuan; in East China, it was 7,092.38 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The basis was 158.22, an increase of 32.83 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore was 60.16 US dollars/barrel, down 0.27 US dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 560.88 US dollars/ton, down 1.75 US dollars. The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 721 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 731 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants was 82.71%, down 0.42 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging films was 50.93%, an increase of 0.52 percentage points; for pipes, it was 32%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points; for agricultural films, it was 49.91%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 8.45%, down 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.87%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options for polyethylene was 13.24%, unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 14th to 20th, China's total polyethylene production was 670,300 tons, a decrease of 0.51% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 82.71%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from the previous period. The average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.2% from the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural films decreased by 0.1% from the previous period, and the operating rate of PE packaging films increased by 0.5% from the previous period. As of November 26th, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 454,000 tons, a decrease of 9.80% from the previous period; as of November 21st, the social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene was 471,100 tons, a decrease of 3.05% from the previous period. From November 15th to 21st, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 0.41% month - on - month to 7,285 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 3.86 yuan/ton to - 409.71 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.06% month - on - month to 7,047 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 75.57 yuan/ton to - 107 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks dominates oil prices, and the prices of polyolefin futures have reached new lows in recent years. The situation of strong current and weak expectations in the crude oil market continues, and the key variable lies in the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Investors should temporarily adopt a volatile mindset [2]. - The weakening of crude oil leads to a decline in the cost of oil-based chemicals. The production capacity growth rates of PP and PE in 2025 both exceed 10%, and the maintenance efforts are insufficient. The production of polyolefins has been at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and the monthly production of both varieties in October reached a record high [3]. - The energy and chemical industry will continue its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and the aromatics pattern being slightly stronger [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. If geopolitical support gradually weakens, it is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - **Main Logic**: The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan is becoming more optimistic, but uncertainties remain high. API data shows that the US crude oil inventory decreased last week while gasoline and diesel inventories increased. The pressure of inventory accumulation due to oversupply still exists, and there is a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. Macro and geopolitical factors have had an increasing impact on oil prices recently [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: Due to raw material supply disruptions and optimistic sentiment, the asphalt futures price rebounded. The absolute price of asphalt is overestimated, and the monthly spread of asphalt is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in December, and White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November. The increase in crude oil and rebar prices driven by optimistic expectations has boosted the asphalt futures price. Reuters reported that Venezuela is seeking key raw material supplies from Chevron, and the shortage of Venezuelan diluted naphtha supply may lead to a decline in its crude oil exports. After the futures pricing returned to the Shandong spot price, the recent stability of the Shandong spot price has strengthened the support for the futures price [9]. 3.1.3 High-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. Geopolitical escalation will only cause short-term price disturbances, and attention should be paid to changes in the Russia-Ukraine situation [9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in December, and White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November. The three major drivers supporting high-sulfur fuel oil, namely the Russia-Ukraine conflict, refinery purchases, and the Palestine-Israel conflict, are currently weak. The refinery operating rate has dropped significantly in the off-season, and the refinery processing demand is weak. The United States is currently using gas oil as a substitute for residue oil, and the fuel oil demand in the Middle East is still weak during the off-season [9]. 3.1.4 Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The low-sulfur fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. It is affected by the substitution of green fuels and high-sulfur fuels, and the demand space is limited. However, the current valuation is low, and it will fluctuate with crude oil [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: Low-sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of refined oil products, and the pressure level of 3500 is temporarily effective. Recently, the decline in Russian refined oil exports has driven the rebound of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads, which has supported low-sulfur fuel oil. However, White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November, and diesel prices have dropped significantly, causing low-sulfur fuel oil to follow the decline. Low-sulfur fuel oil faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy, and the substitution of high-sulfur fuels. Its valuation is low and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **View**: The rebound has reflected the confirmed expectations, and high inventories will suppress the upward space of the futures price. It is expected to be in a short-term volatile consolidation state, and there may be a possibility of repeated bottoming in the long term [30][31]. - **Main Logic**: On November 25, methanol continued to rise but showed signs of weakness. The trading atmosphere in the inland market was active, and the demand for long-term contracts and replenishment by traders was obvious. Olefin enterprises purchased in normal quantities, smoothly digesting the enterprise inventories. After the confirmation of the shutdown information of Iranian methanol plants, the expectations have been basically reflected in the futures price through the reduction of short positions on the 24th. However, considering the high expected import volume, the high coastal inventories are expected to remain at a historical high level, continuing to suppress the upward space of the futures price after the rebound [30]. 3.1.6 Urea - **View**: Downstream demand is weak, and the futures price has declined slightly. The fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, with high inventories suppressing prices and spot prices providing support. The market is expected to be in a narrow and volatile consolidation state, and attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection restrictions on the operation of downstream compound fertilizers [31]. - **Main Logic**: On November 25, the daily production on the supply side remained at a high level. Some devices are expected to resume operation soon, while others have started maintenance. The demand side lacks sustainability, and the market lacks continuous upward momentum. Some regional prices have loosened, and the futures price has declined slightly following the spot price [31]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Without further positive support, the price has entered an adjustment range. The long-term inventory accumulation pressure is large, the rebound height is limited, and the price will maintain a wide and volatile range at a low level [21][22]. - **Main Logic**: The ethylene glycol price rose and then fell during the day. After the short-term sentiment was further released, there was no other obvious positive support. The early implementation of the maintenance plan at Sinochem Quanzhou has relieved the supply-side pressure to some extent, and the price has experienced an emotional recovery. However, there is still an expectation of the return of coal-based devices, and the expectation of inventory accumulation from November to December has not been reversed. With the expectation of future production capacity expansion, the price increase is under pressure [21]. 3.1.8 PX - **View**: The cost-side support is slightly insufficient, but the demand-side support maintains the profitability. In the short term, it is expected to shift from the previous strength to an adjustment phase, and the price will fluctuate with the cost, waiting for the fermentation of sentiment and further feedback from downstream industries [13]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are volatile and weak, and the cost-side support for PX is slightly insufficient. After the price increase, PX has entered a correction phase. The market news is relatively calm, and there have been no significant changes in PX devices. The sentiment for blending into gasoline has cooled down slightly, but PX supply still remains at a high level. The demand side still provides some support for PX prices, which will fluctuate within a certain range under the influence of cost and sentiment [13]. 3.1.9 PTA - **View**: The spot basis is strong, and the processing fee has been slightly repaired. The price will fluctuate with the cost, and the support for the processing fee has increased. The basis has emerged from a weak state. There may be an opportunity for a positive spread arbitrage in TA01 - 05 when it is below -50 [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: The cost-side support from upstream is average, and the market sentiment has cooled down, resulting in average negotiations. However, the PTA supply-demand pattern has improved compared to the previous period, leading to a stronger basis. There is a possibility of inventory reduction from November to December. Attention should be paid to the export performance after the cancellation of BIS [15]. 3.1.10 Short Fiber - **View**: Downstream demand is temporarily maintained, and it will passively follow the upstream. The short fiber price will fluctuate with the upstream, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. A light long position in TA and short position in PF can be considered [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: The cost-side support is limited, and the price increase is modest even with the rebound of ethylene glycol. The current supply-demand pattern of polyester staple fiber is in a weakening cycle, and demand only meets the basic needs. Polyester staple fiber factories are mainly focused on sales [25]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - **View**: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is stagnant. The absolute price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing fee has increased [26]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures prices rose and then fell. Polyester bottle chip factories slightly increased their prices in some areas. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle chip market was average, and there was a large price difference among different brands. The short-term upstream cost is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, providing no clear directional guidance, and the profit of polyester bottle chips will have limited fluctuations [26]. 3.1.12 Propylene - **View**: The spot is strong, and PL is volatile. PL is expected to be volatile in the short term [35]. - **Main Logic**: The restart of supply has been delayed, and the overall supply remains tight. Propylene enterprises have controllable inventories, and some offer prices have increased slightly. Downstream demand has been positive, with an increase in the premium for actual orders, and the trading center has shifted upwards significantly. The PP - PL spread has narrowed in the short term, and the operating rate of downstream powder plants has declined [35]. 3.1.13 PP - **View**: Oil prices are weakening, and there are still fundamental pressures. Attention should be paid to changes in maintenance. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [34][35]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are volatile and declining. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations has led to a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. The macro and geopolitical factors point to a pessimistic outlook for oil prices. The fundamental support for PP itself is still limited. Although maintenance has increased slightly, the high growth of production capacity still exerts pressure on output. The midstream inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and weak demand will continue to suppress the price [35]. 3.1.14 Plastic - **View**: Oil prices are falling, and the downstream is entering the off-season. Maintenance provides limited support, and it is expected to be volatile and weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [33][34]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are volatile and declining. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations has led to a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. The macro and geopolitical factors point to a pessimistic outlook for oil prices. The fundamental support for plastics itself is still limited. The upstream and midstream still have the intention to reduce inventories at high prices, which will suppress the upward space of prices. Short-term maintenance provides limited support, and the increase in production capacity still exerts pressure on output. The profit support is limited, and the downstream demand is gradually entering the off-season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [34]. 3.1.15 Styrene - **View**: The narrative of blending into gasoline has faded, and styrene has returned to a volatile state. It is expected to be volatile for the time being. Attention should be paid to the expected difference between the de - stocking of styrene ports and the inventory accumulation of pure benzene ports [19]. - **Main Logic**: The gasoline crack spread and the Asia - US aromatic hydrocarbon spread indicate that the driving force of blending into gasoline is questionable. After the speculative premium is squeezed out, the downward space for styrene is limited. There are some positive factors such as exports and the reduction of Korean aromatic hydrocarbon production. The supply - demand balance between pure benzene and styrene from December to January is not a major issue, with only minor de - stocking and inventory accumulation, so it will be mainly volatile for the time being [19]. 3.1.16 PVC - **View**: High inventories suppress prices, and PVC may be anchored to production cuts. If low profits lead to upstream production cuts or export volume exceeds expectations, the downward pressure on the futures price will be relieved [37]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in December and the Fed's interest rate decision to guide market expectations. At the micro level, the de - stocking of high PVC inventories is slow, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to enterprise production cuts. Specifically, PVC production is at a high level, the profits of marginal enterprises are poor but there are no clear production cut plans; downstream operating rates are seasonally weak, and only low - price purchases increase; the anti - dumping measures in India have been cancelled, and with the new low in Chinese PVC prices, last week's PVC export orders were booming; the supply and demand of calcium carbide have both increased, and the price is weakly stable; the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is different, and the downward space of the price may be restricted by liquid chlorine [37]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - **View**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, caustic soda is in a volatile state. If low profits lead to upstream production cuts or the logic of warehouse receipts in December takes effect, the futures price may stabilize [37]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in December and the Fed's interest rate decision to guide market expectations. At the micro level, the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to upstream production cuts. Specifically, the marginal profit of alumina plants is poor, and the operating capacity may decline; Weiqiao's caustic soda inventory is high, and the purchase volume is still large; the commissioning of a 4.8 million - ton alumina plant in Guangxi in Q1 2026 will boost the demand for caustic soda, and the purchase of caustic soda is in progress, but the delivery time has been postponed; the non - aluminum operating rate has slightly weakened, and the willingness to replenish inventory is not high; the maintenance in November will end one after another, and the production of caustic soda will increase month - on - month; the price of liquid chlorine is 50 yuan/ton and may decline in the future, and the cost of caustic soda (2250 yuan/ton) may increase [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: The report provides the cross - period spreads and their changes for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, its changes, and the number of warehouse receipts for varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [41]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads and their changes are presented, including 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific data and analysis for each variety (methanol, urea, styrene, etc.) are mentioned, no detailed content is provided in the given text, so a summary cannot be made. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, special index, and plate index of the commodity are provided. The comprehensive index shows an increase, and the energy index has declined in the short term [284][285].

Core Viewpoint - The Zhejiang Provincial Government has issued a plan to establish an integrated off-market trading platform for bulk commodities, aiming to enhance resource allocation and trading efficiency in the region [1] Group 1: Trading Platform Development - The plan includes the construction of a spot trading platform, which will be developed in phases based on the integration of existing platforms like the Zhejiang International Oil and Gas Trading Center [1] - The platform will operate under a unified leadership, structure, accounts, operations, standards, and team [1] Group 2: Trading Volume and Product Focus - There is an emphasis on increasing trading volume on the spot trading platform, particularly focusing on refined oil and chemical bulk commodities [1] - The platform will also expand its business scope to include steel, plastics, and rubber, which are identified as advantageous products [1] Group 3: Encouragement for Industry Leaders - Leading enterprises in the petrochemical sector are encouraged to establish sales zones on the spot trading platform [1] - The plan includes exploring cooperation on national reserve iron ore rotation business, subject to approval from relevant national authorities [1] Group 4: Integration with Futures Market - The initiative aims to explore integrated development between spot and futures markets [1] - The establishment of a basis quotation area on the spot trading platform is proposed, along with the introduction of real-time market data from futures exchanges [1] - There is a focus on expanding the coverage and scale of delivery warehouses for key trading varieties in collaboration with futures exchanges [1]

人民财讯11月26日电，浙江省人民政府办公厅近日印发《打造大宗商品期现一体化场外市场推进大宗商 品资源配置枢纽建设实施方案》，其中提出，推动现货交易平台交易增量持续增长。巩固以成品油、化 工类大宗商品为核心的交易板块，常态化开展线上交易。聚焦钢材、塑料、橡胶等优势品种拓展业务范 围。鼓励石化领域龙头企业在现货交易平台开设销售专区。在获得国家相关主管部门批准的前提下，探 索开展国储铁矿石轮动业务合作。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - With the overall supply-demand pattern unchanged, plastics are expected to experience weak oscillations in the near future [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 25, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [1][4] - As of the week ending November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% week-on-week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film increased slightly again, and the orders for packaging film increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral to high level in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that the latest sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. In addition, the Trump administration is trying to promote a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky has shown an open attitude towards peace talks, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1] - In terms of supply, ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons/year and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 700,000 tons/year were recently put into operation. The plastics operating rate decreased slightly [1] - The agricultural film is entering the end of the peak season, with stable orders but the peak season falling short of expectations. The price of agricultural film is stable. As the temperature drops, the demand in the north begins to decrease, and the downstream operating rate is expected to decline [1] - Downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness, mainly for rigid demand. Traders are cautious about the future market and generally reduce prices to actively sell goods. There is no actual policy for anti-involution in the plastics industry yet. Anti-involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastics 2601 contract decreased in positions and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 6,758 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,822 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,762 yuan/ton, below the 60-day moving average, with a decline of 0.28%. The position volume decreased by 9,070 lots to 488,359 lots [2] Spot - Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from -80 to +50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,770 - 7,150 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,640 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,930 - 7,600 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 25, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week ending November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% week-on-week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film increased slightly again, and the orders for packaging film increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - On Tuesday, the petrochemical early inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 685,000 tons compared to the previous day, 80,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral to high level in recent years [4] - For the raw material, crude oil: the Brent crude oil 01 contract fell to $63/barrel, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $720/ton week-on-week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $730/ton week-on-week [4]

分组1 - Weili Medical plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders, based on an undistributed profit of 704 million yuan as of September 30, 2025 [1] - Tongding Interconnect's shareholder plans to reduce their stake by up to 0.49%, equating to a maximum of 605,800 shares [1] - Caitong Securities has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to issue short-term corporate bonds with a total face value of up to 5 billion yuan [1] 分组2 - Youfu Food intends to use 70 million yuan of its own funds to invest in wealth management products with expected annual returns of up to 4.2% [3] - Keres received an administrative regulatory decision from the Guangdong Securities Regulatory Bureau for violations related to accounts receivable aging calculations and related party transactions [5] - Ouma Software's controlling shareholder has completed the transfer of state-owned equity, changing the controlling shareholder to Shandong Guotou [7] 分组3 - ST Huapeng's wholly-owned subsidiary has completed a major overhaul project and is now in production [8] - Beiqi Blue Valley has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for a stock issuance to specific investors [8] - Weijie Chuangxin received a government subsidy of 5 million yuan, accounting for 21.07% of its projected net profit for 2024 [9] 分组4 - China Resources Double Crane's subsidiary has received a drug registration certificate for a hypertension treatment drug [11] - Huafeng shares are continuing to suspend trading due to a planned change in control [13] - Kaifa Electric's shareholder plans to transfer 36.6869 million shares, representing 11.63% of the total share capital [14] 分组5 - Heng Rui Medicine has received approval for two clinical trials for innovative anti-tumor drugs [15] - Kosen Technology plans to invest 30 million USD to establish a new production base in Malaysia [17] - Sanxing Medical's subsidiary is expected to win a procurement project from the State Grid worth approximately 107 million yuan [18] 分组6 - Sitai Li's subsidiary has received a drug registration certificate for a contrast agent used in MRI [21] - Daren Tang's subsidiary has received a drug registration certificate for a pain relief gel [22] - Saike Xide has received approval for three medical device products, expanding its product range in the in vitro diagnostic field [23] 分组7 - Hasa Lian has elected a new chairman and vice chairman for its board of directors [24] - Two-sided Needle's subsidiary plans to invest 68.8522 million yuan in a production base expansion project [25] - Sunshine Nuohe plans to transfer 70% of its controlling subsidiary's equity for 2 million yuan [26] 分组8 - Hengbang shares received an administrative regulatory decision from the Shandong Securities Regulatory Bureau for failing to complete the election of independent directors [27] - Huali shares plan to sign a related transaction contract worth approximately 59.2847 million yuan [28] - Shangwei shares plan to invest 520.4 million yuan to gain a controlling stake in Sichuan Zhongfu Taihua [30] 分组9 - Zejing Pharmaceutical's ZG006 has been included in the list of breakthrough therapeutic varieties for treating advanced neuroendocrine cancer [32] - Yaopi Glass's shareholder plans to reduce their stake by up to 2.26%, equating to a maximum of 21.1469 million shares [34] - Huate Gas has initiated a major lawsuit involving a claim of 180 million yuan [36] 分组10 - Zhongchumei's controlling shareholder plans to increase their stake by between 42 million and 80 million yuan [37] - Huitong shares' shareholder plans to reduce their stake by up to 1% [38] - Miaowei Exhibition plans to apply for an initial public offering of H shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [40] 分组11 - Tianqi Lithium's subsidiary has appealed to the Chilean Supreme Court regarding a partnership agreement with SQM and Codelco [42] - Naxin Micro plans to repurchase shares worth between 200 million and 400 million yuan [44] - Pingao shares have reported significant uncertainty regarding future business development and profitability [46] 分组12 - Shunyu shares have been pre-selected for a project worth 1.023 billion yuan [48] - Zhongyuan Neipei plans to acquire a 2.5% share in an aerospace industry fund for 50 million yuan [50] - Huifa Food's shareholder plans to reduce their stake by up to 3%, equating to a maximum of 727.14 million shares [53] 分组13 - Junshi Biosciences' subcutaneous PD-1 new formulation has reached its primary endpoint in a Phase III clinical trial [54] - Industrial Fulian clarified that it has not lowered its fourth-quarter profit target amid market rumors [55] - Longpan Technology's subsidiary has signed a major supply agreement for lithium iron phosphate materials, significantly increasing the supply volume [56]

Core Insights - Fospower Technology (SZ000973) reached its daily limit on November 25, 2025, with a price of 13.22 yuan, marking a 9.98% increase and a total market capitalization of 12.789 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Business Developments - The company is actively pursuing a strategic transformation by acquiring 100% of Jinli Co., which will significantly enhance its supply chain synergy and technological reserves in the new energy sector [1] - Fospower is advancing new material projects such as polyamide-nylon films, aligning with national industrial policy directions, which may create new growth points in the long term [1] Group 2: Market Performance - On November 17 and 19, 2025, Fospower was included in the stock market's "Dragon and Tiger List," with total purchases of 1.24 billion yuan and 504 million yuan respectively, indicating strong market interest [1] - The recent activity in the plastic sector has contributed to a positive market sentiment, with several stocks in the same sector showing active performance, creating a sectoral linkage effect [1] Group 3: Financial Metrics - The company's construction projects have increased by 308.29%, demonstrating its commitment to capacity expansion through investments in high-precision capacitor films and barrier materials [1] - In Q3 2025, the operating cash flow grew by 43.58%, primarily due to optimized bill settlements, which supports the company's development [1] - Although net profit decreased year-on-year in Q3 2025, the company's proactive business layout and development strategy continue to attract investor interest [1]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the Brent 01 contract rising 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. Supply and demand face greater inventory accumulation expectations in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains. Focus on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuelan geopolitical risk [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals rose. As several Fed officials advocated a December rate cut, the implied rate cut probability in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [2] Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated. LME copper rose with precious metals at the end of the session. The domestic spot market has a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased by 0.8 million tons on Monday. The aluminum price may continue to adjust, with support around 21,100 yuan [4] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It will operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it will continue to follow the aluminum price, with the possibility of a narrowing spread with AL [6] Zinc - Domestic and overseas mine TC continued to decline. SHFE zinc oscillated in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The external demand supports zinc consumption, but the domestic demand is expected to weaken [7] Lead - SHFE lead oscillated in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The export of lead-acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rebounded, and stainless steel inventory decreased. However, the short-term contradiction lies in the macro level, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9] Tin - LME tin closed higher, and SHFE tin oscillated at high levels. It is still advisable to short, and at the same time, match with out-of-the-money call options to hedge risks [10] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened low and moved lower. The market is highly divergent, and risk control should be prioritized [11] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak. The futures price will maintain an oscillating pattern [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. It will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated strongly overnight. The fundamentals are marginally looser, and the price is expected to oscillate [15] Coke - The coke price oscillated. It may oscillate weakly [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated weakly. It may oscillate weakly [17] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon price oscillated. The bottom support is expected to move down [18] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22] Group 2: Chemicals Urea - Urea supply remains sufficient. The market may return to a stalemate [23] Methanol - The methanol futures rose sharply. It is advisable to try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices [24] Pure Benzene - It is advisable to continue the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [25] Styrene - The supply and demand of styrene are in a tight balance, but the support from the cost and demand sides is questionable [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The market lacks guidance. Polyethylene supply pressure increases, and polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may follow the cost. Caustic soda will operate weakly [28] PX and PTA - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production. PTA is driven by cost [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price has a short-term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip is cost-driven [31] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Niña on South American soybean production [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate in the short term. Palm oil is weaker [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market focuses on Australian seeds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [37] Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38] Corn - The corn futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39] Live Hogs - The far-month hog futures rose, and the near-month is weak. The price may form a double bottom [40] Eggs - The number of newly laid hens is expected to decrease in December. Pay attention to the spot price [41] Cotton - The cotton futures may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see [42] Sugar - The international sugar supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the production in India, Thailand, and Guangxi [43] Apples - The apple futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory removal [44] Wood - The wood futures oscillated. It is advisable to wait and see [45] Pulp - The pulp futures fell slightly. It is advisable to wait and see [46] Group 4: Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - A-shares rose in a shrinking volume. The short-term macro liquidity is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [47] Treasury Bond Futures - The treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly [48] Group 5: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European route index rose sharply. The 02 contract may maintain a discount [20]