美国总统特朗普周三表示，美中已达成一项让脆弱的贸易休战回到正轨的协议，此前华盛 顿和北京官员就一项包括关税税率在内的框架达成了一致。框架还包括有关稀土和中国留 学生的内容。特朗普在其社交媒体平台上公布了伦敦两天会谈的一些首次披露的细节。用 美国商务部长卢特尼克的话来说，此次会谈为上月在日内瓦达成的一项旨在降低双边报复 性关税的协定"增添了实质内容"。 美国和伊拉克消息人士表示，美国正准备撤离驻伊拉克大使馆部分人员，并将允许中东各 军事基地的军人家属离开，因该地区安全风险加剧。消息人士并未具体说明是哪些安全风 险促使政府做出这一决定。白宫官员表示，美国总统特朗普已听取了相关汇报。相关报道 导致油价上涨逾 4%。 EIA 数据显示，截止 6 月 6 日当周，包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量 8.34 亿桶，比 前一周下降 341 万桶；美国商业原油库存量 4.32 亿桶，比前一周下降 364.4 万桶；美国汽 油库存总量 2.30 亿桶，比前一周增长 150.4 万桶；馏分油库存量为 1.09 亿桶，比前一周增 长 124.6 万桶。美国原油日均产量 1342.8 万桶，比前周日均产量增加 2 万桶，比去年同期 ...

宏观 股指 市场分析：当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元，较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨，而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%，短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右，若突破需成交量配 合；沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右，短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点：中证 1000 波动率较高，建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况；上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性；沪深 300 波动率处于低位，但成交额占比稳定，可作为中长期 配置参考；中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值（1.56）接近 2024 年均值（1.62），可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘：上周五美国非农数据超预期，削弱美联储降息紧迫性，同时中美第二轮谈判， 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑， ...

Report Overview - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Report Core View: The current PE market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side is in a centralized maintenance season, but the high - capacity growth still leads to an overall supply increase. The demand side is affected by low - profit environments and the off - season, with no obvious demand drivers. Attention should be paid to the conversion of full - density devices due to the high HD - LL spread [2]. Price Forecast - Monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 33.8% [1]. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For producers with high product inventory worried about price drops: - Short 25% of L2509 plastic futures at 7100 - 7150 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [1]. - Sell 50% of L2509C7200 call options at a premium of 70 - 120 yuan/ton to reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [1]. Procurement Management - For buyers with low regular inventory and wanting to purchase according to orders: - Buy 50% of L2509 plastic futures at 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs [1]. - Sell 75% of L2509P6900 put options at a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [1]. Market Factors Bullish Factors - PE devices are in a seasonal maintenance period, and the centralized maintenance season is expected to last until July [3]. - The current futures price is at a relatively low level, with limited downward space [3]. - The high HDPE - LLDPE spread may lead to more conversions of full - density devices [3]. Bearish Factors - Multiple HDPE devices are planned to be put into operation in the middle of the year [7]. - The off - season of downstream production and sales and the low - profit environment have led to a decrease in domestic demand [7]. - Although the plastic spot has shown signs of price support recently, the overall trading volume is weak [7]. Market Data Futures Prices and Spreads | Indicator | 2025 - 06 - 10 | 2025 - 06 - 09 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic Main Basis | 94 | 107 | 202 | - 13 | - 108 | yuan/ton | | L01 Contract | 7078 | 7050 | 6936 | 28 | 142 | yuan/ton | | L05 Contract | 7067 | 7036 | 6935 | 31 | 132 | yuan/ton | | L09 Contract | 7106 | 7078 | 6963 | 28 | 143 | yuan/ton | | L1 - 5 Month Spread | 11 | 14 | 1 | - 3 | 10 | yuan/ton | | L5 - 9 Month Spread | - 39 | - 42 | - 28 | 3 | - 11 | yuan/ton | | L9 - 1 Month Spread | - 28 | - 28 | - 27 | 0 | - 1 | yuan/ton | | L - P Spread | 165 | 146 | 79 | 19 | 86 | yuan/ton | [5][8] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads | Indicator | 2025 - 06 - 10 | 2025 - 06 - 09 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | North China | 7100 | 7030 | 7030 | 70 | 70 | yuan/ton | | East China | - | 7160 | 7190 | - 7160 | - 7190 | yuan/ton | | South China | 7270 | 7200 | 7170 | 70 | 100 | yuan/ton | | East - North Spread | - | 130 | 160 | - 130 | - 160 | yuan/ton | | East - South Spread | - | - 40 | 20 | 40 | - 20 | yuan/ton | [8] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads | Indicator | 2025 - 06 - 10 | 2025 - 06 - 09 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HDPE Film - LLDPE Film | 425 | 440 | 510 | - 15 | - 85 | yuan/ton | | HDPE Hollow - LLDPE Film | 425 | 445 | 435 | - 20 | - 10 | yuan/ton | | HDPE Injection - LLDPE Film | 375 | 390 | 410 | - 15 | - 35 | yuan/ton | | HDPE Drawing - LLDPE Film | 675 | 690 | 720 | - 15 | - 45 | yuan/ton | | HDPE Pipe - LLDPE Film | 1500 | 1515 | 1535 | - 15 | - 35 | yuan/ton | | LDPE Film - LLDPE Film | 1975 | 1865 | 1910 | 110 | 65 | yuan/ton | [8] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits | Indicator | 2025 - 06 - 10 | 2025 - 06 - 09 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent Crude Oil Price | 66 | 66 | 65.63 | 0 | 0.64 | dollars/barrel | | US Ethane Price | 0.2375 | 0.2371 | 0.2246 | 0.0004 | 0.0129 | dollars/gallon | | Northwest Coal Price | 470 | 470 | 470 | 0 | 0 | yuan/ton | | East China Methanol Price | 2430 | 2390 | 2320 | 40 | 110 | yuan/ton | | Oil - based PE Profit | - | 72 | 96 | - 71.5591 | - 95.8048 | yuan/ton | | Coal - based PE Profit | 783 | 768 | 716 | 15 | 67.25 | yuan/ton | | Purchased Methanol - based PE Profit | 215 | 238 | 300 | - 22.5 | - 85 | yuan/ton | | Purchased Ethane - based PE Profit | 1563 | 1547 | 1683.3354 | 15.8011 | - 120.0517 | yuan/ton | | Purchased Ethylene - based PE Profit | - | - 166 | - 191.8836 | 166.0898 | 191.8836 | yuan/ton | [8]

聚丙烯产业日报 2025-06-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 6941 | 9 1月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 6896 | 3 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 6889 | 0 9月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 6941 | 9 | | | 成交量聚丙烯(PP)(日,手) | 295028 | 65525 持仓量聚丙烯(PP)(日,手) | 511475 | -4864 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:聚丙烯(日,手) | 441970 | 16585 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚丙烯(日,手) | 506322 | 19121 | | | 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚丙烯(日,手) | -64352 | -2536 仓单数量:聚丙烯PP(日,手) | 5090 | 5 | | 现货市场 | PP(纤维/注塑):CFR东南亚:中间价(日,美 | 899 | PP(均聚注塑):C ...

1992年4月7日，巴西发展工商部外贸局发布第103号决议，对原产于美国和墨西哥的悬浮聚合聚氯乙烯 树脂启动反倾销调查。此后，巴西分别于1997年、2003年、2009年、2015年对原产于美国和墨西哥的悬 浮聚合聚氯乙烯树脂启动四次反倾销日落复审调查，先后四次作出肯定性裁决并延长了征税期限。2021 年9月28日，巴西外贸秘书处于《联邦政府公报》发布2021年第63号公告称，应巴西国内企业Braskem S.A.于2021年3月28提交的申请，对原产于美国和墨西哥的悬浮聚合聚氯乙烯树脂启动第五次反倾销日 落复审调查。2022年9月19日，巴西经济部外贸委员会管理执行委员会(GECEX)发布2022年第399号决 议，对原产于美国和墨西哥的悬浮聚合聚氯乙烯树脂作出第五次反倾销日落复审终裁，决定继续对上述 国家的涉案产品征收为期五年的反倾销税，分别为美国8.2%、墨西哥13.6%。由于对墨西哥的被调查产 品未来进口趋势存疑，立即暂停对其征收反倾销税。 据中国贸易救济信息网，5月29日，巴西外贸委员会管理执行委员会(GECEX)发布2025年第737号决议 称，修改2022年9月19日巴西对原产于美国的悬浮聚合聚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion focuses on the integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation to achieve a green transformation and sustainable development in the plastic industry [2][3]. Group 1: Plastic Waste Management - Experts emphasize that waste plastics are valuable resources that can be recycled, and a comprehensive approach is needed to manage plastic pollution across all stages: synthesis, processing, application, and waste management [2][3]. - The total global plastic waste has reached 9.2 billion tons, with only 9% being recycled, 12% incinerated, and 79% either landfilled or accumulating in the environment, leading to severe pollution [6]. Group 2: Innovations in Plastic Materials - The development of new types of plastics, such as biodegradable and chemically recyclable plastics, is crucial for addressing plastic pollution [3][4]. - Biodegradable polymers, particularly polylactic acid (PLA), are highlighted as a promising industry with potential production capacity reaching tens of millions of tons [3]. Group 3: Systematic Approaches to Plastic Pollution - Experts propose a systematic approach to tackle plastic pollution through four key areas: reducing the use of single-use plastics, developing new recyclable materials, promoting bio-based plastics, and enhancing research on biodegradable plastics that can decompose into carbon dioxide and water [4]. Group 4: Event Overview - The event was organized by the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Association of Retired Scientists and the Major Science and Technology Task Bureau [5].

内容价值 相关产品年报名称 《2025年中国聚丙烯市场半年度深度数据目录》 全球PP货物流向半年报：产能过剩，中国增速亮眼 目 录 第一章 报告摘要 第二章 全球PP产能扩张仍在加速，供应逐渐转向过剩 2.1 存量产能施压VS新增产能预期 供应端持续承压 2.2 全球进口贸易流向在市场内卷加剧下悄然生变 报告简介 全球聚丙烯仍处于投产周期，高投产量也使得行业供应逐渐转向过剩，而投产分布来看中国投产产能增速最为亮眼，内贸消耗不及下出口也成了必经趋 势。经过数年的布局中国出口市场在价格优势的带动下体量屡创新高，流向也逐渐发散，使得全球贸易流向也发生变化。本报告结合全球聚烯烃供需格局 以及成本宏观变化对于聚丙烯行业进行现状梳理及未来展望。 2.2.1全球主要进口区域聚焦近洋 贸易伙伴亚洲为主 （1）全球化视角看聚丙烯行业变化，细颗粒度进出口数据可以更好把控PP行业变化，清晰看出区域变动。 （2）报告由上半年行情影响大事记为切入点，进而引出基本面变化，进出口变化以及贸易流向变化多视角剖析行业变化因素。 （3）进口缩量出口扩增的背景下，对于具体货源类型及体量也有更高的兴趣，经过深入调研整理数据图表对现状进行全面分析。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report outlines the issuance of convertible bonds by Guangzhou Jusa Long Engineering Plastics Co., Ltd., detailing the terms, conditions, and implications for bondholders [1][2][16]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The company is issuing 2,500,000 convertible bonds with a face value of RMB 100 each, raising a total of RMB 250 million [2][3]. - The net proceeds after issuance costs amount to RMB 242,669,687.67 [2]. - The bonds will have a term of 6 years, with interest rates increasing from 0.30% in the first year to 2.80% in the sixth year [3][4]. Group 2: Bond Terms - The bonds will pay interest annually, with the first payment occurring one year after issuance [4][5]. - The initial conversion price is set at RMB 36.81 per share, subject to adjustments based on various corporate actions [5][6]. - The conversion period starts on January 12, 2025, and ends on July 7, 2030 [5][6]. Group 3: Redemption and Buyback Provisions - The company has the right to redeem the bonds at 115% of the face value plus accrued interest under certain conditions [9][10]. - Bondholders can sell back their bonds to the company if the stock price falls below 70% of the conversion price during the last two interest years [11][12]. Group 4: Use of Proceeds - The funds raised will be allocated to specific projects as outlined in the offering documents, with a total investment requirement of RMB 300.45 million [13][14]. - The company will self-fund any shortfall if the actual proceeds are less than the required amount [14]. Group 5: Impact on Shareholders - The bond issuance and subsequent conversion price adjustments will not adversely affect the company's operational capabilities or debt repayment ability [16]. - The company plans to distribute cash dividends totaling RMB 19,589,800, impacting the conversion price of the bonds [15][16].

摘要：【图】2025年3月新疆维吾尔自治区初级形态的塑料产量统计分析 2025年3月初级形态的塑料产量统计： 初级形态的塑料产量：75.1 万吨 同比增长：3.0% 同比增长：3.5% 增速较上一年同期变化：高3.6个百分点 据统计，2025年3月新疆维吾尔自治区规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量与上年同期相比增长了 3.0%，达75.1万吨，增速较上一年同期高3.6个百分点，增速较同期全国低7.2个百分点，约占同期全国 规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量1225.91792万吨的比重为6.1%。 详见下图： 图1：新疆维吾尔自治区初级形态的塑料产量分月（当月值）统计图 2025年1-3月初级形态的塑料产量统计： 初级形态的塑料产量：214.7 万吨 增速较上一年同期变化：高3.2个百分点 据统计，2025年1－3月，新疆维吾尔自治区规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量与上年同期相比增长 了3.5%，达214.7万吨，增速较上一年同期高3.2个百分点，继续保持增长，增速较同期全国低6.1个百分 点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量3441.04885万吨的比重为6.2%。详见下图： 图2：新疆维吾尔自治区 ...

聚烯烃：短期或反弹，但趋势仍有压力 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年6月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 聚丙烯供需 02 聚乙烯供需 03 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 LLDPE观点：短期震荡为主 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 5 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 PP：短期或反弹 但趋势仍有压力 ◆ 首先、贸易战因素变换频繁，正因如此当下市场当方面持续下跌在宏观端概率不大，反而在谈判临近尾 声需要警惕。在供应端，6月检修仍偏高，但目前检修量不足以改变供需格局，新增产能大大抵消了供应 端的努力。成本端仍有压力因此短期市场或以震荡市为主，但趋势仍有压力； Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 ◆ ...