Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Plastic - Market expectations are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The short - term cost of international oil price increases may support the price. However, the downstream demand is weak, and the fundamentals maintain a pattern of high production capacity, low profit, and weak demand. It is expected that the plastic 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with a reference range of 6950 - 7100 [4]. PP - Inventory accumulates, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The short - term cost of international oil price increases may support the price, but the supply - side benefits are offset, and the demand is weak. The inventory accumulation exerts great pressure on the market. It is expected that PP2509 will maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the short term, with a reference range of 6850 - 7200 [6]. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On June 6, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7066 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan/ton from last week. LDPE average price was 9216.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.55%. HDPE average price was 8062.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7414.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43%. The LLDPE South China basis was 348.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 19.10%, and the 6 - 9 month spread was - 37 yuan/ton (- 27) [4][8]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil closed at 64.77 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.98 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil closed at 66.65 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 4.04 US dollars/barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 980 yuan/ton (unchanged). The profit of oil - based PE was - 205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 1212 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from last week [4]. - **Supply**: The production start - up rate of Chinese polyethylene was 77.41%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points from last week. The weekly polyethylene output was 59.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.43%. The maintenance loss this week was 12.04 tons, a decrease of 1.47 tons from last week [4]. - **Demand**: The overall domestic agricultural film start - up rate was 12.89%, a decrease of 0.09% from last week. The PE packaging film start - up rate was 48.89%, an increase of 0.30% from last week, and the PE pipe start - up rate was 30.83%, a decrease of 1.00% from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 58.27 tons, a decrease of 1.71 tons from last week [4]. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 6 month spread on June 6, 2025, was 8 yuan/ton (a change of 35 yuan/ton); the 6 - 9 month spread was - 37 yuan/ton (- 27); the 9 - 1 month spread was 29 yuan/ton (- 8) [15]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of different varieties and regions of polyethylene showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [16][17]. - **Cost**: Crude oil prices rebounded, and it is expected to maintain a low - level fluctuating trend. The anthracite market was weak [19]. - **Profit**: It is expected that the profit of oil - based PE and coal - based PE will run weakly [22]. - **Supply**: The production start - up rate increased, and the output increased slightly. There were many maintenance losses this week [25]. - **2025 Production Plan**: Many companies have new production capacity plans in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 543 [27]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises had equipment maintenance, with different parking and start - up times [28]. - **Demand**: The agricultural film peak season has passed, and the start - up rates of packaging film and pipes are average. The market trading atmosphere is light [29]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: The production ratio of linear film is the highest, and there are differences between the current ratios of some products and the annual average levels [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises decreased [35]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 5254 hands, a decrease of 5 hands from last week [42]. PP Market Changes - On June 6, the closing price of polypropylene 2509 was 6925 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week. The polypropylene market first fell and then rose this week, with the price center of gravity moving slightly downward and the amplitude narrowing [46]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil closed at 64.77 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.98 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil closed at 66.65 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 4.04 US dollars/barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 980 yuan/ton (unchanged). The profit of oil - based PP was 31.70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53.54 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PP was 914.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.95 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 75.44%, a decrease of 1.39 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 75.83 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%, and the weekly output of PP powder reached 7.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.57% [6]. - **Demand**: The average downstream start - up rate was 50.01% (- 0.28%). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 44.70% (- 0.50%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 60.41% (+ 0.65%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 56.09% (- 0.08%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 36.13% (- 0.14%) [6]. - **Inventory**: The domestic polypropylene inventory was 60.51 tons (+ 9.36%), with an overall increase in inventory pressure. The inventory of two major oil companies increased by 11.03% month - on - month, the inventory of traders increased by 8.45% month - on - month, and the port inventory increased by 2.31% month - on - month [6]. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of different PP products and related products showed different changes [47]. - **Basis**: On June 6, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 7380 yuan/ton (- 13.33), with a slight month - on - month increase. The PP basis was 455 yuan/ton (- 63), and the basis strengthened. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 57 yuan/ton (+ 1), and the month spread widened [49]. - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on June 6, 2025, was 9 yuan/ton (a change of 24 yuan/ton); the 5 - 9 month spread was - 57 yuan/ton (1); the 9 - 1 month spread was 48 yuan/ton (- 25) [56]. - **Cost**: Crude oil prices rebounded, and it is expected to maintain a low - level fluctuating trend. The anthracite market was weak [58]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP and coal - based PP decreased [60]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate decreased, but the output of pellets and powder increased [64]. - **2025 Second - Quarter Production Plan**: Multiple enterprises have new production capacity plans in the second quarter of 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 427.5 [68]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' production lines have long - term or short - term maintenance, with many of the start - up times undetermined [70]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream start - up rate decreased slightly, and the start - up rates of different industries showed different changes [72]. - **Demand (Product Proportion)**: The proportions of different PP products showed different changes [75]. - **Import and Export Profit**: The import profit of polypropylene was - 569.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 26.34 US dollars/ton from last week. The export profit was 6.78 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.52 US dollars/ton from last week. The import window is closed, and the export window is open [76]. - **Inventory**: The domestic polypropylene inventory increased, and the inventories of different sectors all increased. The finished product inventory of large plastic - weaving enterprises decreased, and the BOPP raw material inventory decreased [78][81]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 6, the number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 4885 hands, a decrease of 149 hands from last week [85].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年6月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年4月PVC产量为195.4977万吨，环比减少5.51%；本周样本 企业产能利用率为78.19%，环比增加0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量32.898万吨，环比增加 4.55%,乙烯法企业产量12.583万吨，环比减少2.07%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检 修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为46.15%，环比减少0.78个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游 型材开工率为39.25%，环比减少0.35个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为 43.44%，环比减少1.87个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bearish stance on plastics for unilateral trading, and there is no recommendation for inter - term trading [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, petrochemical inventories have accumulated, and the overall destocking rate is slow, with certain pressure on the supply side [2] - Propane prices have slightly strengthened, and PDH - based PP production is in the red, leading to many PDH units being shut down for maintenance [2] - There are many PE units planned for maintenance, while PP unit operations are generally stable. Multiple new PP units are expected to be put into production in June, and previous units also have production increase plans [2] - The downstream demand for polyolefins remains in the seasonal off - peak season. Factories mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The operating rates of PE downstream agricultural film and packaging film, as well as PP downstream plastic knitting and other industries, are all showing a downward trend, and the downstream demand is expected to remain weak [2] 3. Summaries by Catalog 3.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 6,963 yuan/ton (+3), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6,884 yuan/ton (+9). The spot price of LL in North China is 7,050 yuan/ton (+0), and in East China is 7,100 yuan/ton (+0). The spot price of PP in East China is 7,080 yuan/ton (+20). The LL basis in North China is 87 yuan/ton (-3), in East China is 137 yuan/ton (-3), and the PP basis in East China is 196 yuan/ton (+11) [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 76.8% (-1.2%), and the PP operating rate is 75.4% (-1.4%) [1] - The PE oil - based production profit is 397.7 yuan/ton (-30.7), the PP oil - based production profit is 117.7 yuan/ton (-30.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 401.7 yuan/ton (+0.0) [1] 3.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - The document does not provide specific data summaries for non - standard price differences [26][33][34] 3.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 363.9 yuan/ton (-50.0), the PP import profit is - 533.6 yuan/ton (+0.0), and the PP export profit is 18.3 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [1] 3.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural film is 13.0% (-1.1%), and the operating rate of PE downstream packaging film is 48.6% (-0.6%) [1] - The operating rate of PP downstream plastic knitting is 45.2% (-0.5%), and the operating rate of PP downstream BOPP film is 59.8% (-0.4%) [1] 3.6 Polyolefin Inventory - The document does not provide specific data summaries for polyolefin inventory [70][74][85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The launch of PVC monthly average price futures contracts is a significant innovation in China's futures market. These contracts can effectively smooth price fluctuations, attract more financial trading clients without a spot background, and meet the hedging needs of the PVC industry under the monthly average price pricing model [3][4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Monthly Average Price Futures Contract Launch Background - PVC price fluctuations are affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical conflicts. The current pricing models (fixed - price and price - setting) have high price - fluctuation risks, while the monthly average price pricing can smooth price fluctuations and may become the future pricing trend [11]. - China is a major PVC producer, with increasing PVC production capacity and export volume. To meet the risk - management needs of enterprises, on April 24, 2025, the Dalian Commodity Exchange solicited public opinions on the monthly average price futures contracts of linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene and related rules [12]. - The PVC futures market has been operating stably since its listing in 2009, with high industry recognition and participation, laying a good foundation for the launch of monthly average price futures contracts [11]. PVC Monthly Average Price Futures Contract Content Interpretation - The contract code of the PVC monthly average price futures contract is "V contract month F". It differs from existing futures contracts in terms of the last trading day, delivery date, delivery method, settlement price calculation, and position limits, while being consistent with the corresponding physical - delivery PVC futures contracts in other aspects [3][21]. - The settlement price of the monthly average price futures contract is calculated differently at different stages. Before the month before the contract month, it is the same as the corresponding physical - delivery contract. In the month before the contract month, it is a weighted arithmetic average, and on the last trading day, it is the arithmetic average of the daily settlement prices of the corresponding physical - delivery contract in that month [23][25]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange sets separate position limits for monthly average price futures and physical - delivery futures. The total position limit of monthly average price futures and physical - delivery futures does not exceed the existing variety's position limit, with the monthly average price futures' position limit being 1/5 and the physical - delivery futures' being 4/5 of the existing variety's limit [29]. PVC Monthly Average Price Futures Contract Launch's Practical Significance - The monthly average price futures contract can effectively smooth price fluctuations. Its settlement price is based on the arithmetic average of the settlement prices of all trading days in the month before the contract month, helping to alleviate business risks caused by large price fluctuations [4][30][31]. - The cash - delivery method may attract more financial trading clients without a spot background. It avoids the complexity and cost of physical delivery, improves capital - use flexibility, and reduces operational complexity [31]. - It conforms to the trend of the monthly average price pricing trade model and enriches PVC hedging tools. The monthly average price pricing model may become a new trend, and the monthly average price futures contract can meet the industry's hedging needs more accurately [32].

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-05-28 下游订单偏弱，聚烯烃延续下行 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7007元/吨（-73），PP主力合约收盘价为6896元/吨（-33），LL华北现货为7130 元/吨（-90），LL华东现货为7250元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为7060元/吨（-70），LL华北基差为123元/吨（-17），LL 华东基差为243元/吨（+23）， PP华东基差为164元/吨（-37）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为78.0%（-1.4%），PP开工率为76.8%（+0.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为544.0元/吨（+10.2），PP油制生产利润为134.0元/吨（+10.2），PDH制PP生产利 润为-271.9元/吨（+19.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-148.5元/吨（+10.0），PP进口利润为-534.2元/吨（+40.3），PP出口利润为12.8美元/吨 （-4.9）。 单边：塑料谨慎偏空。 跨期：无。 风险 宏观经济政策，原油价格波动，新增产能投产进度。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 下游需求方面，P ...

塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/05/2 0 780 7300 7515 9250 7780 855 917 -31 7222 40 82 5312 2025/05/2 1 780 7260 7525 9200 7780 855 917 -5 7221 30 81 5312 2025/05/2 2 780 7260 7450 9075 7800 855 917 -84 7159 40 80 5312 2025/05/2 3 780 7150 7400 9000 7780 855 917 -84 7085 40 80 5312 2025/05/2 6 780 7100 7375 9000 7780 855 917 -84 7080 60 80 5312 日度变化 0 -50 -25 0 0 0 0 0 -5 20 0 0 观点 聚乙烯，两油库存同比中性，上游过节累库，煤化工累库，下游库存原料中性，成品库存中性。整体库存中性，05基差华北+300， 华东+300，外盘欧美稳，东南亚维稳。进口利润-400附近 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for plastics is cautiously bearish, and there is no recommendation for inter - term trading [3] Core View - Downstream demand follow - up is weak, and the market is weakly consolidating. The market has returned to fundamental trading. The downstream demand is in the off - season. The agricultural film operating rate is at a low level, the packaging film operating rate fluctuates slightly, and the operating rates of industries such as plastic weaving and BOPP have slightly increased. The traditional consumption off - season is coming, and terminal factories have low enthusiasm for raw material procurement and general inventory - building enthusiasm, mainly for rigid demand procurement. The number of PE maintenance devices has increased, and the PE supply side has eased. The previously shut - down PP devices have gradually restarted, and the upstream production inventory of polyolefins has decreased. It is expected that the future supply will increase. Due to the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the production profit of PDH - made PP has recovered. Attention should be paid to the restart of shut - down devices [2] Summary by Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Analyzed the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts and the basis between LL East China and the main contract, as well as PP East China and the main contract [1][8][9][12] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 78.0% (- 1.4%), and the PP operating rate is 76.8% (+ 0.3%). The PE oil - based production profit is 533.8 yuan/ton (- 100.1), the PP oil - based production profit is 93.8 yuan/ton (- 100.1), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 290.9 yuan/ton (+ 7.5) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Analyzed the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire in East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire in East China [28][35][36] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit is - 91.0 yuan/ton (- 10.0), the PP import profit is - 574.5 yuan/ton (+ 3.2), and the PP export profit is 17.7 US dollars/ton (- 0.3) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 14.1% (- 2.6%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.2% (+ 0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 45.7% (+ 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.2% (+ 0.2%) [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - Analyzed the inventories of PE oil - based enterprises, PE coal - chemical enterprises, PE traders, PE ports, PP oil - based enterprises, PP coal - chemical enterprises, PP traders, and PP ports [72][76][86][87]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Plastic is cautiously bearish in the unilateral strategy, and there is no recommendation for the inter - period strategy [3] Core Viewpoints - Downstream demand is weakening, and polyolefins continue to be weak. With an increase in domestic plant maintenance, domestic supply pressure has weakened, and imports are expected to decrease. Propane prices have fallen, but the production profit of PDH - made PP is still in large losses, and many PDH plants are under maintenance. Downstream demand is about to enter the traditional off - season, and the inventory of polyolefin producers has decreased, with inventory shifting to the middle and lower reaches [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7222元/吨（-16），PP主力合约收盘价为7047元/吨（-31），LL华北现货为7350元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为7420元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7180元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为128元/吨（-34），LL华东基差为198元/吨（+16），PP华东基差为133元/吨（+31） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为79.4%（-4.7%），PP开工率为76.6%（-3.2%）。PE油制生产利润为569.1元/吨（-15.2），PP油制生产利润为89.1元/吨（-15.2），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 315.9元/吨（-36.7） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 74.5元/吨（-7.1），PP进口利润为 - 531.6元/吨（-57.3），PP出口利润为22.3美元/吨（+7.0） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为16.7%（-2.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.7%（+1.1%），PP下游塑编开工率为45.3%（+0.5%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为59.9%（+2.3%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Downstream factories have increased their inventory replenishment efforts, the inventory of polyolefin producers has decreased, and inventory has shifted to the middle and lower reaches [2]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: May 20, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - After the macro - sentiment fades, plastics and PP rise and then fall back. There is still pressure at the upper gap. The spot market atmosphere warms up, but the actual high - price transactions are limited. The improvement of downstream product factory orders remains to be seen. Polyolefins mainly digest the previous gains [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: L2509 of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 7,238 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton (- 0.37%), with a trading volume of 320,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 4,002 to 514,088 lots. The main PP contract 09 closed at 7,078 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan, a decline of 0.62%, with positions decreasing by 4,841 lots to 414,800 lots [6] - **Supply Side**: Upstream petrochemical plants have intensive maintenance, resulting in short - term supply - side pressure, and the maintenance loss is at a high level compared to the same period. From May to June, PE plans to add 700,000 tons of new production capacity, and the supply pressure will be realized in the third quarter. There is no PP production plan in May, and in June, attention should be paid to the commissioning of the 500,000 - ton/year Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical plant [6] - **Demand Side**: The demand for agricultural films changes from peak to off - peak. The operating loads of packaging, film, and injection molding industries have declined month - on - month. All indicators in the PP downstream areas are weaker than the same period last year. Enterprises that suspended production due to high tariffs have gradually resumed operation this week, and the phenomenon of rush - exporting within the 90 - day buffer period may drive demand improvement [6] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On May 19, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 830,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from the previous working day, a growth rate of 5.73%. The inventory at the same time last year was 920,000 tons [7] - **PP Market**: The PP market was weakly sorted, with some prices slightly adjusted down by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The weakening of PP futures dragged down the spot market atmosphere. Traders actively sold goods, and some offers were slightly loosened to promote transactions, but the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream factories was not high [7] - **PE Market**: The PE market prices continued to show a mixed trend, with some prices falling. In North China, some linear PE prices fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 50 yuan/ton [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the PVC futures price fluctuated and rose this week. The V2509 contract closed at 4,947 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 2.96% from last week's close [9]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, some PVC production facilities were shut down for maintenance this week, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.64% to 77.70%. On the demand side, the downstream start - up rate increased by 0.46% to 46.45%, with the pipe start - up rate up 0.93% to 49.06% and the profile start - up rate remaining stable at 35.9%. As of May 15, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 3.23% to 630,000 tons, and the inventory pressure was not significant. The costs of both calcium carbide method and ethylene method decreased, and the profits of the two methods were repaired to varying degrees [9]. - Looking ahead, next week, there will be both shutdown and restart of facilities, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly, with generally low supply pressure. Affected by macro - positive factors, the domestic downstream start - up rate has rebounded, but the weak real estate market still drags down demand growth. In terms of exports, the Indian market is affected by uncertainties such as BIS certification and anti - dumping duties and the rainy season, and the unresolved tariffs imposed by the US on Vietnam may affect China's PVC raw material exports. The calcium carbide price may fluctuate, and the ethylene price may fluctuate slightly within a range. The V2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support around 4,900 and resistance around 5,100 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: The PVC futures price fluctuated and rose due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. The V2509 contract closed at 4,947 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 2.96% from last week [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply side - some facilities were shut down for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.64% to 77.70%. Demand side - the downstream start - up rate increased by 0.46% to 46.45%, with the pipe start - up rate up 0.93% to 49.06% and the profile start - up rate remaining stable at 35.9%. As of May 15, the social inventory decreased by 3.23% to 630,000 tons. The costs of calcium carbide method and ethylene method decreased, and the profits were repaired [9]. - Outlook: Next week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly, with low supply pressure. The domestic downstream start - up rate has rebounded, but real estate drags down demand. Exports face challenges. Calcium carbide and ethylene prices may fluctuate. The V2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 4,900 and resistance at 5,100 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Futures price and warehouse receipts: The V2509 contract fluctuated and rose, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased week - on - week [10]. - Position and spread: The position of the main contract decreased week - on - week, and the 9 - 1 spread was slightly stronger [14]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Spot price - imports and exports: The CFR China quotation was 700 US dollars (+0), and the Southeast Asian quotation was 670 US dollars (+0) [20]. - Spot price - overseas: The Indian quotation was 700 US dollars (+0) [25]. - Spot price - domestic calcium carbide method and ethylene method: The prices of calcium carbide method and ethylene method in East China increased week - on - week [28]. - Basis: The basis fluctuated, and the futures market remained in a contango state [33]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Lanthanum coke and calcium carbide: The prices of lanthanum coke and calcium carbide remained stable this week. The lanthanum coke start - up rate was 54.13%, and the calcium carbide start - up rate was 64.38% [37][43]. - EDC and VCM: The VCM CIF intermediate price was 520 US dollars/ton, and the EDC international price was 162 US dollars/ton [47]. 3.3.2 Industry Chain - Supply - capacity and output: The PVC capacity growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 10.77%. The output in March was 2.0691 million tons, a month - on - month increase [51]. - Supply - capacity utilization and maintenance: The PVC capacity utilization rate decreased week - on - week [55]. - Demand - downstream start - up rate: The pipe start - up rate increased week - on - week, and the profile start - up rate remained stable [59]. - Demand - PVC floor exports: The PVC floor exports in March increased month - on - month [63]. - Imports and exports: Exports in March increased month - on - month, and imports increased month - on - month but remained at a low level [66]. - Inventory: The PVC social inventory decreased week - on - week [70]. - Cost: The calcium carbide method cost decreased slightly, and the ethylene method cost decreased week - on - week [74]. - Profit: The process profits of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method were repaired this week [80]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.90%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.89%, and that of put options was 19.93% [85].