Group 1: IPO Market Trends - In September 2025, the A-share market saw 12 new IPOs, raising a total of 11.9 billion yuan, a 308% increase month-on-month[9] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets issued 8 new stocks in September, with a total fundraising of 10.6 billion yuan, marking a 607% increase month-on-month[9] - The average first-day closing price increase for new stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 207%, maintaining a "zero break" status for the year[33] Group 2: Valuation and Investor Participation - The average first-day PE ratio for new stocks was 24 times, with a 31% discount compared to comparable companies, indicating a narrowing valuation gap[20] - The average subscription rate for A/B class investors in the Shenzhen market was 0.0216%/0.0182%, reflecting a decrease of 1% and 15% respectively month-on-month[27] - The average number of offline inquiry products in the Shenzhen market reached a new high, with 8,275 products participating in September[24] Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Future Outlook - As of September 2025, there were 118 IPO projects pending approval in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, with a total proposed fundraising of 208.8 billion yuan[59] - The approval and registration process for IPOs has accelerated, with 12 projects reviewed and 13 registered in September, both hitting yearly highs[54] - Risks include potential changes in the IPO review pace, adjustments in issuance systems, and fluctuations in investor participation[48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In September, convertible bonds underperformed underlying stocks overall, but there was significant differentiation among sectors. High - price convertible bonds continued their strong performance, and the high - price convertible bond index led the gains. The technology sector's rise slightly declined, while the financial sector was under pressure. Under the expectation of a bull market in the equity market, the double - low strategy continued to underperform the high - price and low - premium strategy [1][2][3]. - Although high - price convertible bonds have stronger equity characteristics, the double - low strategy still has the advantage of being offensive and defensive. Actively screening sectors and individual stocks according to market trends can help obtain excess returns. In the context of the continuous rise of convertible bonds, the valuation has reached a relatively high historical level, and the number of individual bonds triggering forced redemptions is increasing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Monthly Market Tracking - Overall performance: In September (from September 1st to 30th), the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.97%, while the CSI All - Share Index rose 2.65%. Year - to - date (as of September 30th), the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the CSI All - Share Index rose 17.11% and 23.68% respectively. The convertible bonds underperformed underlying stocks, but there was obvious differentiation among sectors. The CSI Convertible Bond Index underperformed the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indexes by 1 pct and 3 pct respectively, but outperformed the CSI 2000 index by 2 pct [11]. - Classification by price: In September, the Wind high - price convertible bond index rose 5.92%, with the growth rate narrowing compared to August, but still significantly leading the low - price (+3.14%) and medium - price (+3.26%) convertible bonds. Since May, high - price convertible bonds have continuously outperformed medium - and low - price ones. Year - to - date (as of September 30th), the high - price convertible bond index has accumulated a 27.47% increase, especially significantly outperforming medium - and low - price indexes in the third quarter [12]. - Classification by outstanding scale: In September, the Wind small - cap (+2.73%) and medium - cap (+2.89%) convertible bond indexes led the gains, significantly outperforming the large - cap convertible bonds (+0.14%). Year - to - date (as of September 30th), the small - cap convertible bond index rose 23.93%, far ahead of the large - cap (+10.56%) and medium - cap (+17.35%) convertible bonds [16]. - Classification by credit rating: In September, the AAA high - rating convertible bond index fell 1.36%, while the AA - and below convertible bond index rose 3.15%, underperforming the AA + (+3.75%) and AA (+4.23%) convertible bond indexes. Throughout the year, low - rating convertible bonds still significantly outperformed high - rating ones, reflecting a relatively high market risk appetite [18]. - Sector performance: In September, the technology sector's rise slightly declined, and the financial sector was under pressure. The information technology and industrial convertible bond indexes rose 4.28% and 4.11% respectively, with the information technology sector still being the best - performing one. Except for information technology, industrial, and material convertible bonds, the performance of convertible bonds in other sectors was stronger than that of underlying stocks. The convertible bonds and underlying stocks in the financial sector both declined in September [22]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Monthly Investment Recommendations 3.2.1 Strategy Recommendation: Select High - Growth Industries from Low - Price Convertible Bonds - September double - low portfolio performance: The double - low portfolio constructed in September selected the bottom 10% of individual bonds in terms of double - low values. After active screening, 10 individual bonds were obtained, mainly concentrated in the light manufacturing and non - ferrous metals industries. From September 1st to 30th, the portfolio's return rate was 5.92%, outperforming the CSI Convertible Bond Index by about 4 pct. Cumulatively, since its construction in June, the portfolio's cumulative return rate was 19.12%, outperforming the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 5.3 pct [31]. - October double - low portfolio recommendation: In the context of the continuous rise of convertible bonds, individual bonds with low double - low values face higher risks of delisting and forced redemption, and the number of eligible individual bonds has decreased. This month, 10 individual bonds were selected from the bottom 10% of double - low value rankings. These recommended individual bonds are mainly concentrated in non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and power equipment industries, with an average convertible bond price of 133 yuan, conversion value of 122 yuan, and conversion premium rate of 9% [35]. 3.2.2 Allocation Recommendation: Focus on Technology Growth and "Anti - involution" - Related Sectors - Convertible bonds have entered a high - valuation range. At this stage, more attention should be paid to the safety margin. Under the unbroken expectation of a bull market, sectors at a low level with the expectation of a catch - up can be focused on. It is recommended to pay attention to "anti - involution" - related sectors with long - term logic, such as photovoltaic, lithium battery, engineering machinery, and chemical industries, as well as the callback layout opportunities of high - growth sectors such as robotics, semiconductors, AI computing power, and innovative drugs [37].

石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为61.93%，石油石化行业占比为30.84%。前十大权重股分别为万华化学、 中国石油、盐湖股份、中国石化、中国海油、巨化股份、藏格矿业、金发科技、华鲁恒升和宝丰能源， 前十大权重股合计占比55.12%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 东海证券认为，国内方面，国家政策端对供给侧要求（"反内卷"）频繁提及；海外方面，上涨的原料成 本+亚洲产能冲击，欧美化工企业近期多经历关停、产能退出等事件。短期来看，地缘摩擦反复，海外 化工供应不确定性有所增加；长期来看，我国化工产业链竞争优势明显，凭借显著的成本优势和不断突 破的技术实力，中国化工企业正迅速填补国际供应链的空白，有望重塑全球化工产业的格局 10月10日午后，三大指数延续下跌态势，中证石化产业指数逆势上涨，现涨约0.4%。成分股中，新凤 鸣涨超5%，荣盛石化、鲁西化工、兴发集团、恒逸石化等涨幅居前。相关ETF方面，石化ETF （159731）跟随指数上涨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhenhua Co., Ltd. has reached a historical high in stock price, reflecting strong market performance and positive financial results [2] Company Summary - As of 10:26, Zhenhua's stock price increased by 5.36%, reaching 20.05 yuan, with a trading volume of 12.54 million shares and a transaction amount of 245 million yuan, resulting in a turnover rate of 1.76% [2] - The latest total market capitalization of Zhenhua in A-shares is 14.251 billion yuan, with the same amount for A-share circulating market value [2] - The company reported a revenue of 2.19 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.17%, and a net profit of 298 million yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 23.62% [2] - Basic earnings per share are 0.4200 yuan, with a weighted average return on equity of 9.01% [2] Industry Summary - The basic chemical industry, to which Zhenhua belongs, has an overall increase of 0.22%, with 270 stocks rising, including notable gainers such as Chengxing Co., Ltd. (10.07%), Dongfang Carbon (7.76%), and Limin Co., Ltd. (6.38%) [2] - Conversely, 156 stocks in the industry have declined, with significant losses from companies like Lanfeng Biochemical (-10.04%), Heyuan Gas (-7.35%), and Duofluo (-6.92%) [2] - As of October 9, Zhenhua's margin trading balance is 276 million yuan, with a financing balance of the same amount, showing an increase of 6.09 million yuan over the past 10 days, which is a 2.26% increase [2]

Core Insights - 32 companies have announced their performance forecasts for the first three quarters, with 28 companies expecting profit increases, representing 87.50% of the total [1] - The overall proportion of companies reporting positive forecasts is 90.63%, with one company expecting a profit and one company expecting a loss [1] - Among the companies expecting profit increases, 9 companies forecast a net profit growth exceeding 100%, while 6 companies expect growth between 50% and 100% [1] Company Performance - Yinglian Co. anticipates the highest net profit growth at 1602.05%, followed by Guangdong Mingzhu at 964.95% and Limin Co. at 659.48% [1] - The industries with the most companies expecting profit growth include basic chemicals, steel, and non-ferrous metals, with 3, 2, and 1 companies respectively [1] - The average increase in stock prices for companies expecting profit growth since July is 33.42%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1] Stock Performance and Fund Flow - The top performers since July include Changchuan Technology with a 113.21% increase, followed by Jinli Permanent Magnet at 65.65% and Brother Technology at 52.25% [1] - In terms of fund flow, Jinli Permanent Magnet, Shandong Steel, and Yonghe Co. have seen significant net inflows of 280.32 million, 17.97 million, and 0.79 million respectively [2] - Conversely, Changchuan Technology, Brother Technology, and Yinglian Co. experienced substantial net outflows of 913.49 million, 20.53 million, and 10.23 million respectively [2] Expected Profit Growth Companies - A list of companies with expected profit growth includes: - Yinglian Co. (1602.05% growth, latest price 19.99, net outflow 10.23 million) [2] - Guangdong Mingzhu (964.95% growth, latest price 6.24, net outflow 0.61 million) [2] - Limin Co. (659.48% growth, latest price 18.03, net outflow 6.73 million) [2] - Brother Technology (230.37% growth, latest price 7.43, net outflow 20.53 million) [2] - Jinli Permanent Magnet (168.00% growth, latest price 39.49, net inflow 280.32 million) [2]

Core Points - As of October 9, the total margin financing and securities lending balance on the Beijing Stock Exchange reached 7.514 billion yuan, an increase of 95.6363 million yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The top three stocks by margin financing balance are Shuguang Shuchuang, Jinbo Biological, and Better Energy, with balances of 362 million yuan, 335 million yuan, and 332 million yuan respectively [1] - A total of 163 stocks had net margin purchases on October 9, with 13 stocks having net purchases exceeding 5 million yuan, led by Better Energy with a net purchase of 16.139 million yuan [1][2] Industry Summary - The industries with the highest concentration of stocks with net margin purchases over 5 million yuan are machinery equipment, basic chemicals, and electronics, with 5, 2, and 2 stocks respectively [2] - On average, stocks with net margin purchases over 5 million yuan increased by 4.26% on October 9, with the highest gainers being Changfu Co., Tianli Composite, and Haineng Technology, which rose by 29.99%, 18.39%, and 9.51% respectively [2] - The average turnover rate for stocks with net margin purchases over 5 million yuan was 3.42%, with Changfu Co., Haineng Technology, and Kunbo Precision leading with turnover rates of 29.25%, 8.95%, and 8.31% respectively [2] Company Highlights - Better Energy had a margin financing balance of 332.05 million yuan, with a net purchase increase of 16.139 million yuan, representing 0.91% of its circulating market value [3] - Kunbo Precision saw a price increase of 6.66% with a margin financing balance of 22.14 million yuan, and a net purchase increase of 8.7907 million yuan, accounting for 2.18% of its circulating market value [3] - Tianli Composite experienced a significant price increase of 18.39% with a margin financing balance of 26.95 million yuan, and a net purchase increase of 6.179 million yuan, representing 0.73% of its circulating market value [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the period after the National Day holiday is a traditional window for risk appetite to rise, with a significant increase in market win rates, particularly favoring technology growth sectors [1][2] - Historically, after the National Day holiday, the broad market indices show a notable increase in win rates, with growth styles being more dominant, especially in sectors represented by TMT, advanced manufacturing, and export chains [1][2] Group 2 - In October, the hardware segment within TMT is expected to outperform due to earnings disclosures, the concentration of new product launches, and the upcoming Double Eleven sales season [4] - The effectiveness of investment in sectors with favorable economic conditions is expected to increase in October, as the correlation between stock price movements and earnings growth improves as the third-quarter report disclosure period approaches [6] Group 3 - Since September, the industries with upward revisions in profit expectations are primarily concentrated in AI (gaming, computer equipment, communication devices, components), advanced manufacturing (motorcycles, aerospace equipment, home appliance components, batteries, medical services), cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals, glass fiber, steel, agricultural chemicals), consumption (beverages, dairy products, seasoning and fermentation products, pet economy, jewelry), and finance (brokerage, insurance, city commercial banks) [7][9] - The profit revision ratios and expected profit growth rates for various sectors indicate a strong performance in technology, advanced manufacturing, and cyclical sectors, with notable companies highlighted in each category [9] Group 4 - The intensity of industry rotation is expected to converge in October, with a consensus forming around the economic growth themes as the market focuses on the clues from the third-quarter reports [10][11] - October is identified as a traditional window for the convergence of industry rotation intensity and market consensus, suggesting a structural focus on key themes for trading [10][11]

证券研究报告|北交所专题报告 2025年10月9日 证券分析师 姓名：赵昊 资格编号：S1350524110004 邮箱：zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 姓名：万枭 资格编号：S1350524100001 邮箱：wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 核心要点：9月新股收益率维持397%高位，2025Q3预期顶格收益达14.4万元 n 发行情况：2025年前9个月共计15家公司完成上市，募资49亿元，全年募资已超越2024年；9月有3家公司上市，募资额 9.2亿元，北交所IPO节奏维持加速态势，预计后续IPO延续该节奏。2025Q3有9家公司上市（上季度为3家），募资额27 亿元（上季度为7亿元），从募资规模来看，2025Q3创下2024Q1以来新高。公司质量方面，2025年前9月，北交所新上 市公司的2024年营收平均为8.9亿元，归母净利润平均为1.3亿元，财务数据相比2023-2024年新上市公司显著提升。 n 申购热度：从网上申购资金来看，2025年前9个月平均达6079亿元，9月平均达7248亿元；2025Q3平均达 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to show strong performance, with the Chemical ETF (516020) rising 2.99% and achieving six consecutive days of gains [1] - Key stocks in the sector include salt lake shares, which increased by 7.48%, and other companies like Yun Tianhua and Xingfa Group, which also saw significant gains [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with six other departments, issued a plan for the petrochemical and chemical industry aimed at achieving an average annual growth of over 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026 [2] Group 2 - The Chemical ETF (516020) is currently at a low valuation point, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.35, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] - The basic chemical sector has seen a net inflow of 252.11 billion in the past five trading days, ranking fourth among 30 major sectors [4] - The construction of new projects in the basic chemical sector has been declining for three consecutive quarters, confirming a supply turning point and indicating a positive overall market outlook [5] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI sub-industry index, covering various segments of the chemical industry, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks [6] - Investors can also consider the Chemical ETF linked funds for exposure to the chemical sector [6]

Core Insights - The report presents two industry rotation models: one based on similar expected return differentials and another based on changes in analyst expectations, both aimed at identifying investment opportunities in various sectors [11][22]. Group 1: Similar Expected Return Differential Model - The latest configuration suggests focusing on sectors such as coal, communication, basic chemicals, automotive, real estate, and machinery [21]. - In September 2025, the model achieved a monthly return of +4.56%, outperforming the equal-weighted industry index by +3.66% [21]. - The historical backtest from December 2016 to September 2025 shows that the model has a mean Information Coefficient (IC) of 0.09, indicating strong selection ability [14][15]. Group 2: Analyst Expectation Change Model - The latest configuration highlights sectors including non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, communication, steel, and computers [33]. - In September 2025, the model recorded a monthly return of +1.03%, with an excess return of +0.13% over the equal-weighted industry index [33]. - The historical backtest from December 2016 to September 2025 indicates a mean IC of 0.06, demonstrating significant industry selection capability [23][24]. Group 3: ETF Portfolio Construction - The recommended ETF portfolio for October 2025 includes sectors such as non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, communication, basic chemicals, and automotive [35]. - Specific ETFs listed include the Huabao CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF and the Southern CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF, among others, with significant fund shares [35].