Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a "structural bull" in 2025, followed by a potential "full bull" market in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Phases - The A-share bull market follows a "two-stage" pattern, with previous examples being the structural bull in 2013 followed by a full bull in 2015, and another structural bull from 2016 to 2017 followed by a full bull from 2020 to 2021 [1] - During the structural bull phase, institutional holdings and valuations of core sectors reach initial high points, leading to a qualitative change in the accumulation of institutional profit effects [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - The potential full bull market in 2026 is supported by cyclical improvements in fundamentals, a new phase in technology industry trends, and a positive cycle of incremental capital inflow [1] - The A-share market is expected to embrace global "competitive thinking," transitioning from "following" to "leading" in external circulation, which opens up transformation space for China's development [1] Group 3: Investment Focus - The leading investment themes for the 2026 bull market will focus on three main areas: the extension of AI industry trends from computing power to applications, breakthroughs in the robotics industry, and the revaluation of advanced manufacturing in energy storage and photovoltaics [1] - In the first half of 2026, cyclical and value sectors are likely to have relative advantages during market consolidation, with particular attention on excess returns in the basic chemicals and industrial metals sectors [1]

申万宏源研究A股策略首席分析师傅静涛表示，2025年是典型的"结构牛"，2026年下半年则有望迎 来"全面牛"。 傅静涛提出，A股牛市行情遵循"两段论"规律：2013年迎来结构牛，随后就是2015年的全面牛；2016— 2017年迎来结构牛，随后就是2020—2021年的全面牛。在结构牛阶段，机构对核心板块的持仓与估值同 步触及首轮高位，叠加机构赚钱效应完成从量变到质变的积累。进入全面牛阶段，核心产业趋势进一步 升级，基本面改善的领域持续扩容，再与增量资金形成正向循环，最终使得估值提升到历史高位的赛道 明显增加。 傅静涛认为，2026年下半年可能迎来"全面牛"。基本面周期性改善、科技产业趋势新阶段演绎以及增量 资金流入正循环，构成全面牛的基本盘。A股将拥抱全球"竞争思维"，中国外循环从"跟跑"到"领跑"， 外循环取得突破，打开了中国发展转型空间。 他表示，2026年牛市的领涨主线，将聚焦在三大方向：AI产业趋势从算力向应用延伸，机器人产业实 现突破，储能、光伏领域等中国先进制造重估。顺周期与价值板块，大概率在2026年上半年的市场休整 阶段占相对优势，其中，周期领域的超额收益可重点关注基础化工、工业金属赛道。 ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 近期金属市场的供应端出现了一些扰动和变化,尤其是贵金属、能源金属和工业 金属领域。贵金属方面,黄金和白银在节前出现了波动,经过一段时间的拉涨后 进入晨荡趋势。能源金属如碳酸锂价格在底部反弹后也出现了震荡。工业金属方 面,厄瓜多尔的铜供应可能推迟,加剧了铜供应端的不稳定性。同时铝价创下新 高,上周一度突破 23,000元/吨,目前在 22,900元/吨水平。此外,小金属如锡 & 调研纪录 争 狗 - · 金属板块受供需双重因素驱动,进入上行周期。供给端受资本开支、产能 周期及地缘政治影响,供应受限;需求端则由新能源、AI 数据中心等新 兴产业主导,改变了传统地产需求格局。 贵金属市场波动性大,白银受逼仓影响剧烈震荡,但供需缺口依然存在; ● 黄金受白银及其他贵金属影响,同时关注美联储降息预期。全球央行购金 及地缘政治风险支撑长期上涨动力。 能源金属市场经历调整,碳酸锂价格波动显著,但能源转型长期需求增长 ● 依然稳固。镍市场受益于印尼政策限制,供给端扰动增加,下游接受度高, 2026 年镍价难大幅下跌。 · 基本金属方面,铜受智利和厄瓜多尔供应扰动影响, ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of recent military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela, which may delay exports of tin, nickel, and bauxite, leading to short-term price stimulation but limited long-term effects. The focus remains on precious metals as safe-haven assets, with a positive outlook on lithium, copper, aluminum, gold, silver, tin, rare earths, antimony, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium [1] - The report notes that gold and silver prices have seen a decline, with COMEX gold and silver closing at $4324.5 and $70.5 per ounce, respectively, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of -4.79% and -7.69%. The Federal Reserve's indication of potential rate cuts post-December is expected to influence market sentiment positively [2] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are expected to show price elasticity due to supply constraints, with LME copper closing at $12496.5 per ton, up 2.57% week-on-week. The report also mentions a strike at Capstone Mining's Mantoverde copper mine, which could impact supply [2][3] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have decreased, with COMEX gold at $4324.5/oz and silver at $70.5/oz. The market sentiment is influenced by the Fed's potential rate cuts and increased central bank and ETF purchases [2] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shandong Gold, Shandong International, and others in the gold sector [2] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by supply constraints, with LME copper at $12496.5/ton and a notable strike affecting production. The report indicates a potential increase in exports post-holiday [2][3] - The report recommends monitoring companies like Jiangxi Copper and Yunnan Copper [3] Aluminum - Aluminum prices remain strong, with LME aluminum at $2997.0/ton. The report notes a slight increase in domestic production capacity but a decrease in downstream demand due to high prices [3] - Suggested companies include China Hongqiao and Nanshan Aluminum [3] Tin - Tin prices have seen fluctuations, with SHFE tin at 327680 yuan/ton. The report anticipates continued high prices due to supply concerns from major producing regions [9] - Companies to watch include Yunnan Tin and Huaxi Holdings [9] Strategic Metals - The report highlights a positive outlook for lithium, with prices at 121580 yuan/ton, driven by increasing demand for energy storage and electric vehicle batteries [10] - Cobalt prices are rising due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with current prices around 460000 yuan/ton [10] - Companies of interest include Ganfeng Lithium and Huayou Cobalt [10][11] Rare Earths - Rare earth prices are expected to rise, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide at 607500 yuan/ton and 596500 yuan/ton, respectively. The report notes a potential recovery in export demand [12] - Recommended companies include Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth [12]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Chinese economy is showing signs of improvement, with the three major PMI indices rising into the expansion zone. In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 50.1%, 50.2%, and 50.7%, respectively, marking increases of 0.9, 0.7, and 1 percentage points from the previous month [8]. - The manufacturing PMI has returned to expansion, with significant improvements in both production and demand. The production index was at 51.7% (+1.7), and the new orders index was at 50.8% (+1.6), both surpassing the critical point [8]. - The report indicates that policy coordination is expected to strengthen economic recovery, with a focus on fiscal preemptive measures and continued liquidity easing. This is anticipated to enhance market confidence in the ongoing economic recovery [8]. Group 2 - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline in December 2025, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.88%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 2.37%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index decreasing by 1.48% [15]. - Despite the overall decline, the military industry sector, commercial aerospace, and rare earth permanent magnets showed strong performance, leading the market [16]. - The report emphasizes that the advanced manufacturing sector, cyclical industries, and technology sectors saw significant gains, while the pharmaceutical and medical sectors experienced deeper declines [22][31]. Group 3 - The report highlights that foreign capital index futures positions weakened, with net short positions in IC, IF, and IM expanding, while IH net positions remained at zero [42]. - The report also mentions that the onshore and offshore RMB swap rates have declined, with the domestic bond plus swap yield lower than the US Treasury yield [45]. Group 4 - Upcoming key events include the US non-farm payroll and ISM PMI data, which are expected to be closely monitored in the coming week [47].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of multiple brokerage strategies is the expectation of a strong market opening in January, supported by liquidity factors and potential policy changes such as interest rate cuts [1][3] - The market environment in January is expected to be better than the previous two years, with a favorable liquidity and exchange rate situation, which may drive the continuation of the cross-year market trend [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the upcoming earnings forecasts will provide further guidance for market trends, indicating a potential expansion of the market's upward structure [1][3] Group 2 - The focus for institutional funds post-holiday is likely to be on consensus stocks that have adjusted, such as sectors like non-ferrous metals, overseas computing power, and semiconductors [2][4] - There is a preference for sectors with lower heat and concentrated holdings that are beginning to gain attention, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, power equipment, and new energy [2][4] - The spring market rally is anticipated to start gradually, with the potential for structural market trends to continue, although some volatility may occur in January [4][5] Group 3 - The strategies from various brokerages highlight the importance of monitoring policy expectations and industry trends, which could support the spring market rally [3][4] - The current market risk appetite remains high, providing room for high-elasticity technology themes to continue their upward trajectory [4][5] - Analysts emphasize the need for a cautious approach towards sectors that have previously shown weak fundamental support, as they may face adjustment risks [1][3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][54]. Core Views - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, which may enhance the strategic resource pricing of metals. The gold market is expected to maintain its safe-haven appeal due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the unresolved U.S. debt issue, leading to a potential long-term increase in gold prices [4]. - Industrial metals are anticipated to see an upward trend in pricing due to increased financial attributes and tightening supply conditions, particularly for copper and aluminum [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Nonferrous Metal Index Trends - As of December 31, 2025, the nonferrous metal index closed at 9342.49 points, up 0.4% month-on-month. The precious metal index decreased by 2.2%, while the industrial metal index increased by 2.1% [10]. 2. Precious Metals 2.1 Gold - As of December 31, the COMEX gold futures contract was priced at $4341.9 per ounce, down 4.8% month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.6% to 1065 tons. The report suggests that the recent price drop is a short-term adjustment in a longer-term upward trend for gold prices [4]. 3. Industrial Metals 3.1 Copper - The SHFE copper futures contract was priced at 98,240 RMB per ton as of December 31, down 0.49% month-on-month. Domestic copper social inventory reached 238,900 tons, while LME copper inventory was at 145,000 tons. The report indicates a tightening supply expectation for copper, with a potential upward revaluation of copper prices in the medium term [6]. 3.2 Aluminum - The SHFE aluminum futures contract rose by 2.3% to 22,925 RMB per ton as of December 31. Domestic aluminum social inventory was 684,000 tons, with LME aluminum inventory at 509,300 tons. The report anticipates that aluminum prices will maintain a high-level fluctuation due to a supportive macro environment [6]. 3.3 Tin - The SHFE tin futures contract fell by 4.6% to 322,900 RMB per ton as of December 31. Domestic tin social inventory was 8,520 tons, and LME tin inventory was 5,415 tons. Supply concerns due to geopolitical issues in the Congo and regulatory tightening in Indonesia are expected to keep the tin market tight [6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following sectors: - **Gold**: Continued geopolitical uncertainty supports gold's safe-haven status. Recommended stock: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. - **Copper**: Domestic demand recovery and tightening supply conditions suggest a positive outlook. Recommended stock: Luoyang Molybdenum. - **Aluminum**: Strong demand against weak supply conditions may drive aluminum prices higher. Recommended stock: Tianshan Aluminum [7][51].

来源：申万宏源 一、25 年12 月PMI 环比超季节性改善，强化了春季没有下行风险的格局。25 年12 月PMI、生产、新订 单和新出口订单环比差值均显著好于季节性。我们认为，这与26 年春节较晚，出口订单前置直接相 关。这在春节前的窗口，都构成支撑经济数据验证的因素。 排除经济下行风险后，一个没有重大下行风险 + 有利因素可期的窗口随之展开。我们继续提示，春季 支撑风险偏好的时间窗口连续：2 月春节前反弹是A 股胜率最高的日历特征之一，同时这也是科技领域 可能兑现重磅催化的窗口。3 月两会可能审议十五五规划正式稿，政策催化可能更加丰富。4 月特朗普 可能访华，中美经贸关系缓和确认期，也是稳定资本市场预期的关键窗口。上证综指连续阳线后，春季 行情仍有纵深。 二、经济和产业是慢变量，资金供需是快变量，这个特征在春季行情中可能更加突出。25年底中证 A500ETF 冲量已进入稳定期，年初增量资金可能是保险开门红 + 年初人民币汇率升值共振外资活跃度 恢复。岁末年初不缺增量资金，A 股开门红可期，赚钱效应可能普遍扩散。板块轮动，主题活跃特征可 能延续。 三、2026 年全面牛条件会逐步完备，这是一个动态发展的过程 ...

- Model Name: Timing System Model; Model Construction Idea: The model uses the distance between the long-term moving average (120 days) and the short-term moving average (20 days) to distinguish the overall market environment[2][6][11] - Model Construction Process: The model calculates the distance between the 20-day moving average and the 120-day moving average. The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 6298 points and the 120-day moving average at 6090 points. The difference between the two lines is 3.41%, and the absolute value of the distance continues to be greater than 3%, indicating that the market is in an upward trend[2][6][11] - Model Evaluation: The model effectively identifies the market's upward trend, providing a positive signal for market timing[2][6][11] - Model Name: Industry Trend Allocation Model; Model Construction Idea: The model identifies industry trends and allocates based on medium-term reversal expectations and sector performance[2][5][7] - Model Construction Process: The model signals to focus on service consumption sectors such as tourism and media based on medium-term reversal expectations. The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on AI applications and commercial aerospace. The industry trend model shows that the communication, industrial metals, and energy storage sectors continue their upward trend[2][5][7] - Model Evaluation: The model provides clear guidance on sector allocation, helping investors to focus on promising sectors[2][5][7] - Model Name: Position Management Model; Model Construction Idea: The model suggests stock allocation based on valuation indicators and short-term trends[5][7] - Model Construction Process: The model uses the PE and PB ratios of the WIND All A Index. The PE ratio is near the 90th percentile, indicating a relatively high valuation, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, indicating a moderate level. Based on these indicators and short-term trends, the model suggests an 80% stock allocation for absolute return products[5][7] - Model Evaluation: The model provides a balanced approach to stock allocation, considering both valuation and market trends[5][7] Model Backtest Results - Timing System Model, Moving Average Distance: 3.41%[2][6][11] - Timing System Model, Market Trend Line: 6262 points[2][6][11] - Timing System Model, Profit Effect: 2.71%[2][6][11] - Position Management Model, PE Ratio: 90th percentile[5][7] - Position Management Model, PB Ratio: 50th percentile[5][7] - Position Management Model, Stock Allocation: 80%[5][7]

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|有色金属 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 金属及金属新材料行业周报 降息预期交易继续 [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-01-04 [分析师： Table_Author]宫帅 SAC 执证号：S0260518070003 SFC CE No. BOB672 010-59136660 gongshuai@gf.com.cn 分析师： 王乐 SAC 执证号：S0260523050004 021-38003617 wangle@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈琪玮 SAC 执证号：S0260524040003 SFC CE No. BTE650 021-38003631 chenqiwei@gf.com.cn 请注意，王乐并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 -4% 16% 35% 55% 74% 94% 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 有色金属 沪深300 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 工业金属与钢铁：内需预期有望改善，工业金属价格或高位运行。铜 铝：25 年 12 月 ...