阅读须知：本文内容所有信息和数据，均为作者查阅官方信息和网络已知数据整合解析，旨 在让读者更清晰了解相应信息，如有数据错误或观点有误，请文明评论，作者积极改正！ （创作不易，一篇文章需要作者查阅多方资料，整合分析、总结，望大家理解） 房地产到底还是那口旧井，大家都知道水不多了，不少人却还是一窝蜂往里跳。 从北上广到三四线，房子几乎就是中国家庭的全部赌注。 可现实却像一盆冰水泼下来，涨房价不等于涨消费，相反房奴越多，消费越虚。 三四线城市压根没啥财富效应，房价涨不动消费、甚至还带来消费萎缩，很尴尬吧？ 一线城市掀起了"财富红利"，但根本分不到普通年轻人头上。 对年轻人而言，房价上涨不是财富增长，而是一个响亮的警钟：隐性成本上升、未来压力极大。 谁还敢消费，能还房贷就不错了。"60后靠低成本积房，00后靠AA制租房"，这一现实几乎成为中国城 市青年的集体宿命。 住房财富效应是谁的幻觉？ 数据显示，只有真正拥有房产的人才会因为房价上涨扩大消费，而租房者、首次购房族、年轻人基本无 动于衷甚至被迫紧缩支出。 这哪是消费引擎，这分明是阶层放大镜。房价如同附加税，不是普惠，而是分裂。 当一个社会的资产配置过度集中于房产，而 ...

Company News - Huagong Technology has reported that its connection business orders are scheduled until the fourth quarter of 2026, with AI high-speed optical module production lines operating at full capacity 24 hours a day [3] - During the Spring Festival, multiple business segments of Huagong Technology maintained production, with its Wuhan and Thailand production bases fully operational from the first day of the Lunar New Year [3] - Lushow Technology has achieved a significant breakthrough in the semi-insulating silicon carbide field, successfully producing 12-inch silicon carbide single crystal samples, marking a technological advancement in its product matrix [3] - Fantasia Holdings announced that its restructuring plan has received support from 99.67% of creditors, with court hearings scheduled for March 12 in Hong Kong and the Cayman Islands [4] Industry News - The National Development Bank reported that in 2025, it issued over 360 billion yuan in loans for highway infrastructure, a year-on-year increase of 10% [2] - The China Iron and Steel Industry Association stated that by the end of 2025, over 80% of crude steel production capacity in China will achieve ultra-low emissions, with significant advancements in low-carbon metallurgy technology [2]

编者按 辞蛇岁，迎马年。在2026年新春佳节之际，期货日报邀请各大机构相关专家，盘点当前大类资产市场态 势，掘金新一年核心配置机会与优质投资赛道。 马年首个交易日即将到来，新的一年该布局哪些板块，如何做好资产配置才能稳健获利？国投期货首席 宏观分析师李而实结合过去几年市场的行情脉络，针对马年资产配置逻辑、潜力板块及操作逻辑给出了 建议。 国内市场进入再通胀交易阶段 李而实表示，2024年以来，国内市场进入了再通胀交易阶段。 "去年国内宏观政策发力叠加美联储货币政策转向，使市场重估大中华区大类资产的价值。对大类资产 而言，必然是一个国债交易难度增加、股票市场表现强势、商品再通胀交易逻辑扩散的过程。"在李而 实看来，过去几年商品市场各板块表现分化，并未出现普涨行情。在宏观流动性充裕的背景下，商品市 场上金属板块表现强势，股票市场上科技板块领涨。 李而实认为，进入马年之后，市场有两个方向相对比较明确：一是随着人民币升值趋势确立，国内资产 偏积极的环境仍然存在；二是随着金融属性偏强的品种价格大幅上涨，市场结构大概率会进入一个再平 衡的过程，即"盈利交易兴起，再通胀交易扩散"。 "从股票市场来看，在科技板块和以有色金属 ...

Group 1: Domestic High-Frequency Data - Retail and catering sales showed a significant increase, with average daily sales during the first four days of the Spring Festival rising by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025, up from a 5.4% increase in the previous year [2][10] - Travel activity also increased, with an average daily passenger volume of 30.99 million during the Spring Festival, representing a 10.9% increase from 2025. Railway travel increased by 13.3% to 11.44 million, while civil aviation travel rose by 8.9% to 2.46 million [2][10] - Box office revenue for the Spring Festival was low, with an estimated total of around 6 billion yuan, which is below the levels of the past three years and similar to 2022 [2][10] - Real estate transactions were low during the Spring Festival, with average daily sales in 30 major cities at seasonal lows, making the data less relevant for broader analysis [2][10] Group 2: Overseas Macro Environment - The U.S. is experiencing increased uncertainty regarding tariffs due to internal conflicts between judicial and executive branches, with a recent Supreme Court ruling declaring many tariffs imposed by the previous administration as legally invalid [3][25] - Economic growth in the U.S. has slowed, with Q4 GDP rising by only 1.4%, significantly lower than the 4.4% growth in Q3, influenced by government shutdowns and reduced consumer spending [4][25] - Inflation pressures remain, with the core PCE price index rising to 3.0% year-on-year in December 2025, up from 2.8%, which may complicate future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [4][25] Group 3: Global Capital Markets - Most global stock indices rose during the Spring Festival, with the South Korean market leading with a 3.09% increase. The U.S. stock market also saw slight gains, with the Nasdaq up 1.51% and the S&P 500 up 1.07% [5][34] - Oil prices increased by 5.7% due to geopolitical tensions, while gold and silver prices recovered, with silver rising by 5.6% and gold by 0.7% during the same period [5][40] - Bond yields in major economies mostly declined, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slightly rising to 4.08%, while other regions like Germany and France saw decreases in long-term bond yields [5][38] Group 4: Post-Festival Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue strengthening post-festival, supported by a weak economic backdrop and low financing demand, which provides overall protection for the bond market [6][43] - Seasonal declines in funding demand and limited impact from central bank liquidity withdrawal are anticipated, maintaining a loose monetary environment [6][43] - The low positions of trading institutions and the continued allocation by investment institutions driven by lower costs and declining yields from other assets are expected to stabilize the market [6][43]

转自：云南日报 在"十四五"收官、"十五五"开局的重要历史节点上，昆明市西山区围绕建设"充分凸显云南政治中心服 务承载、山水都市品质和现代服务业活力特质的区域性中心城市中枢门户区"目标，找准在云南省、昆 明市发展大局中的战略定位，持续提升产业能级，加快构筑新质生产力，勇于开辟新领域、新赛道，推 动经济社会高质量发展迈出坚实步伐。 "抓住城市经济、文化旅游、工业振兴、改革创新四个关键，夯实城乡建设、生态环境、民生福祉、社 会稳定四个基础，持续巩固齐头并进良好发展态势。"西山区委书记张攀介绍，全区干部群众坚定信 心、苦干实干，坚定不移推进高质量发展迈上新的台阶。 更新旧动能 培育新动能 新年伊始，西山区处处涌动着昂扬奋进的发展热潮。 来到云南云天化福石科技有限公司，首先映入眼帘的是控制中心大屏，主控操作员章银雁紧盯实时跳动 的电压、电极数据，精准调试。"2024年，公司启动'数字工厂'建设，围绕黄磷生产中的设备管理、生 产管控、物资采购三大核心模块，落地26项子功能应用场景。"该公司总经理符宗国介绍，"实时数据采 集、视频全程监控、人员精准定位、厂区三维建模等数智化管控体系让产能提升了38%，2025年实现利 润 ...

最近这几天的楼市消息真是让人心惊肉跳，国家统计局刚公布了70个大中城市的房价数据，结果一看，新房价格居然全线下跌，一个例外都没有，简直可 以用"全军覆没"来形容。说实话，看到这种局面，我心里都凉了半截。现在的楼市真是一天比一天低迷，不少城市的房价已经摇摇欲坠，站在了危险的悬 崖边上，稍有不慎就可能彻底崩盘。 这两年来，国家为了救市，陆陆续续出台了不少政策，试图稳住楼市的阵脚，可有时候大势所趋，真的不是几项措施就能轻易扭转的。但话说回来，房价 问题实在太关键了，它不仅仅是关乎我们每个普通人、每个家庭的钱袋子，更是牵动着整个社会的经济脉络。 这可不是危言耸听，一旦房地产真的救不起来了，明年楼市很可能就要面对4大难题，到时候局面可能更加棘手。 01 拖累整体经济，地方财政危机，甚至发不下工资 最近这两年，大家多多少少都感觉到了，不少地方的财政是越来越吃紧了。有些地方甚至已经出现了给公职人员发工资都困难的情况。这跟以前的光景可 真是天壤之别。还记得大概2010年到2015年那会儿吗？那时候开发商们意气风发，到处抢着拿地，热火朝天地盖房子。 买房子的人也络绎不绝，很多农民朋友纷纷进城安家，到处都是高价成交的房产。那时候 ...

Core Viewpoint - The housing provident fund system in China, established in 1999, is set for significant reforms aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and boosting domestic consumption, with potential changes in investment rates and the scope of fund usage [4][12]. Group 1: Current Status of the Housing Provident Fund - The housing provident fund system has been in place for 27 years, aiding millions of families in purchasing homes, with a current total of 1.76 billion contributors and a fund balance of 10.9 trillion yuan [4][12]. - The annual interest rate for the provident fund has remained low at 1.5% since 2016, despite decreasing bank deposit rates, leading to reduced earnings for the fund [8][9]. Group 2: Anticipated Reforms - Official announcements indicate that significant reforms to the housing provident fund are expected, focusing on both the interest rate and the range of permissible uses for the funds [4][12]. - There is speculation that the fund's investment scope may expand to include stock market investments, similar to social security funds, to generate higher returns [9][19]. Group 3: Implications for the Real Estate Market - The anticipated reforms are expected to positively impact the real estate market by enhancing consumer confidence and stimulating housing demand [18]. - Recent policy changes in various regions have already begun to allow the use of provident funds for additional expenses, such as property management fees and elevator installations, indicating a trend towards broader fund utilization [17][19]. Group 4: Disparities in Fund Contributions - There are significant disparities in provident fund contributions across different types of employers, which may widen the gap in employee benefits and welfare [10][9]. - The potential for expanded usage of the provident fund could further highlight these disparities, as higher-paying employers may offer more substantial contributions compared to lower-paying ones [10].

进入2026年，最扎心的问题还是那个——房价到底了没？还会不会跌？ 咱们先把人口账算清楚。老龄化越来越深，适龄购房的人越来越少，这是改变不了的现实。全国范围内 的房价继续向下调整，基本是大概率事件。一线城市虽然靠着产业和资源还能吸人，但这种人口回流要 转化成实实在在的买房需求，没个三五年很难见效。短期看，一线可能扛跌，但全国大盘的压力，跑不 掉。 那房价一直跌，成交量能不能稳住？现在市场上确实出现了"以价换量"的苗头。2026年1月，全国重点 13城二手房成交810万平方米，环比涨了16%，同比暴涨33%，比2025年的月均还高了18%。北京、上 海、广州、深圳的二手房都挺热闹，上海更是创了近五年同期新高。 但这里有个坑，千万别踩——成交热的只是二手房，新房完全是另一副面孔。同期全国重点50城的新建 商品住宅成交面积，环比暴跌32%，同比也少了20%。问题就来了：二手房成交再火，对地产链的拉动 能有多大？说白了，二手房顶多带动装修、家电、中介，但新房才能拉动土地、建材、施工这一整条长 链条。只要新房起不来，地产链想企稳，门儿都没有。 地产趴着起不来，那内需消费能不能顶上？难度也不小。 耐用品这块，2025年有 ...

据香港政府官员，港府提出以高于预估的价格收购去年受火灾影响的宏福苑业主业权，总收购成本约68 亿港元。 财政司副司长黄伟纶2月21日在简报会上表示，政府将向已补价单位业主提出每平方呎10,500港元的收 购价，未补价单位为每平方呎8,000港元。他还表示，受影响业主的另一选项是"楼换楼"。 何永贤指出，将这七座楼宇恢复至符合现行建筑标准并不具成本效益，因此需要拆卸。 房屋局局长何永贤表示，政府在单位置换计划中拿出约3,900个单位，数量是表示有兴趣业主的三倍以 上。 ...

很多人一听说"房价要跌"，心里暗爽："活该，炒房客终于要被收拾了。" 但真到2026年，如果房价继续往下走， 你会发现一个扎心的事实： 真正被拖垮的，往往不是那些专业的炒房客，而是三类"看起来很稳"的普通人。 为什么？因为他们的命运，已经和那几套房子，绑得太死了。 第一类：高位接盘、掏空"六个钱包"的刚需家庭 第一类人，就是那些在2016–2021年楼市高点，掏空"六个钱包"上车的刚需家庭。 央行那份著名的调查里，有一个细节很关键： 他们的故事往往是这样：首付出自小两口+双方父母；房贷一背二三十年，月供占收入的一大半； 本以为"房价总归会涨"，结果几年不到，房价先跌了。 有房贷的家庭中，刚需型房贷家庭的债务风险最突出：资产负债率、金融资产负债率、月偿债收入比， 都是所有群体中最高的。 这意味着什么？ 意味着这些家庭：资产高度集中在房子上；一旦房价下跌、收入下滑，抗风险能力非常脆弱。 更现实的是，在部分三四线城市，房价已经从高点跌了三四成， 很多家庭发现： 把房子卖了，都不够还银行贷款。 这时候，他们既不能断供，又卖不掉房子，只能咬牙硬扛，生活质量被"房子"拖得越来越低。 第二类：资产高度集中在房产的中产家庭 ...