Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - According to Wind data, among the bonds traded at a discount, "24 Chanrong 08" had a relatively large deviation in bond valuation price. Among the bonds with rising net prices, "H2 Vanke 04" had a relatively high degree of deviation in valuation price. Among the Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with rising net prices, "25 Chongqing Three Gorges Bank Perpetual Bond 01" had a relatively large deviation in valuation price; among the commercial financial bonds with rising net prices, "25 Xiamen International Bank Bond 02" had a relatively high degree of deviation in valuation price. Among the bonds with a trading yield higher than 5%, real estate bonds ranked high. The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the [-5,0) range. The trading terms of non-financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 3 - 4 year term variety having the highest proportion of discounted trades; the trading terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, with the variety with a term of less than 1 year having the highest proportion of discounted trades. By industry, the bonds in the commercial and retail industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Discounted Bond Trading Tracking - Bonds such as "24 Chanrong 08", "24 Chanrong 06", "24 Chanrong 04" in the non - banking financial industry and "24 Puzhi 03", "26 Puzhi 01" in the urban investment industry had relatively large deviations in valuation price and were traded at a discount. The trading scale of "23 AVIC Chanrong MTN001 (Sci - tech Innovation Note)" was 64.08 million yuan, which was relatively large among the discounted bonds [5]. 2. Tracking of Bonds with Rising Net Prices - "H2 Vanke 04", "H2 Vanke 06", "H2 Vanke 02" in the real estate industry and "26 Runtou V1" in the commercial and retail industry had relatively large positive deviations in valuation price and rising net prices. The trading scale of "26 Runtou V1" was 362.83 million yuan, which was relatively large among the bonds with rising net prices [6]. 3. Tracking of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Trading - "25 Chongqing Three Gorges Bank Perpetual Bond 01", "25 Luzhou Bank Perpetual Bond", "25 Beibu Gulf Bank Perpetual Bond 01" and other Tier 2 and perpetual bonds had a certain degree of deviation in valuation price. The trading scale of "25 Zhonghang Secondary Capital Bond 03A(BC)" was 433.483 million yuan, which was relatively large among the Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [7]. 4. Tracking of Commercial Financial Bond Trading - "25 Xiamen International Bank Bond 02", "25 CITIC Bank Green Bond 01BC", "25 Zheshang Bank Green Bond 01BC" and other commercial financial bonds had a certain degree of deviation in valuation price. The trading scale of "24 Nanjing Bank 02" was 613.72 million yuan, which was relatively large among the commercial financial bonds [8]. 5. Tracking of Bonds with a Trading Yield Higher than 5% - Bonds such as "H2 Vanke 04", "H2 Vanke 06", "H2 Vanke 02" in the real estate industry and "24 Chanrong 05", "23 Chanrong 10" in the non - banking financial industry had a trading yield higher than 5%. The trading scale of "23 AVIC Chanrong MTN001 (Sci - tech Innovation Note)" was 64.08 million yuan, which was relatively large among the high - yield bonds [9]. 6. Distribution of Credit Bond Valuation Deviations - The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the [-5,0) range [3]. 7. Distribution of Non - financial Credit Bond Trading Terms - The trading terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 3 - 4 year term variety having the highest proportion of discounted trades [3]. 8. Distribution of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Trading Terms - The trading terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, with the variety with a term of less than 1 year having the highest proportion of discounted trades [3]. 9. Discounted Trading Proportion and Trading Scale of Non - financial Credit Bonds by Industry - The bonds in the commercial and retail industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [3].

Group 1 - The company, Country Garden (碧桂园), announced the issuance of a total of 101 million shares due to the conversion of zero-coupon mandatory convertible bonds, which will be converted starting from June 30, 2025, and will mature in 78 months [1]

格隆汇3月10日丨中国海外发展(00688.HK)公告，将于2026年3月31日(星期二)举行董事局会议，藉以(其 中包括)审议及批准公司及其附属公司截至二零二五12月31日止全业绩及其发布，以及考虑派发末期股 息(如有)建议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fosun International has issued a profit warning, expecting a loss of approximately 21.5 billion to 23.5 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, which has drawn significant attention from the capital markets. However, this substantial loss is not indicative of operational failure but rather a strategic move to clear risks and focus on core businesses [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Loss - The primary reasons for the expected loss are twofold: first, the ongoing downturn in the real estate sector has led Fosun to prudently recognize significant asset impairment provisions for projects showing signs of impairment; second, the company has revalued goodwill and intangible assets in non-core business segments due to market changes, resulting in further impairment provisions [1]. - These impairments are accounting adjustments and do not affect the overall operational performance of the company [1]. Group 2: Strategic Transformation - Since 2022, Fosun has initiated a large-scale asset restructuring, disposing of over 80 billion yuan in assets to streamline operations and focus on core businesses. In 2024, the company plans to exit assets equivalent to 17.5 billion yuan, further optimizing its balance sheet [1]. - The core operational fundamentals of Fosun remain robust, with total revenue projected to reach 192.1 billion yuan in 2024, and the four main subsidiaries contributing over 70% of total revenue. The operational profit is expected to be 4.9 billion yuan, with healthy and stable operating cash flow [2]. Group 3: Market Confidence and Future Outlook - Management actions, including a planned share buyback of up to 1 billion Hong Kong dollars post-2025 earnings announcement, signal confidence in the company's long-term prospects [2]. - Fosun is transitioning from a "debt-driven expansion" model to a focus on core, asset-light operations, shedding the burdens of diversification. This strategic shift is expected to lead to valuation recovery and the initiation of a new development cycle post-transformation [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 18.34 CNY [7][13]. Core Insights - The company has successfully achieved multi-level financing breakthroughs, including the acceptance of the closed-end commercial REIT by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which is expected to raise 1.625 billion CNY [3][13]. - The company is positioned as a significant representative of private real estate enterprises in the commercial REITs pilot program, with benchmark projects located in key urban areas of the Yangtze River Delta [13]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 0.37 CNY, 0.51 CNY, and 0.61 CNY respectively, with a projected net asset value per share of 28.22 CNY in 2025 [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 119.174 billion CNY in 2023 to 53.687 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a decrease of 25.3% in 2024 and 34.3% in 2025 [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 737 million CNY in 2023 to 1.377 billion CNY in 2027, with a notable growth of 37.4% in 2026 [5]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 1.2% in 2023 to 2.0% in 2027 [5]. Market Data - The current stock price is 15.54 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 11.21 CNY to 18.08 CNY [8]. - The total market capitalization is 35.052 billion CNY, with a total share capital of 2.256 billion shares [8]. Debt and Financing - The company has successfully issued a total of 3.55 billion USD in new bonds, optimizing its debt structure and aiming to replace high-cost short-term debts with lower-cost long-term financing [13]. - The net debt ratio stands at 56.85%, indicating a moderate level of leverage [9]. Asset Management - The company has established a presence in 141 cities with 205 integrated projects, achieving an average occupancy rate of 97.7% for opened projects [13]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on optimizing its asset portfolio through various REITs products, with plans to assess assets totaling up to 8 billion CNY for future financing [13].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core View The energy upstream sector is on an upward trend, with continuous increases in the prices of liquefied natural gas and crude oil. The domestic refined oil price has experienced a "four - consecutive increase", and it is expected to continue rising in the next adjustment window. Meanwhile, various industries show different trends, such as price changes in agriculture and non - ferrous metals, and fluctuations in the sales of real estate and the operation of service industries [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: On March 9, the National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices by 695 yuan/ton and 670 yuan/ton respectively. After conversion, 92 - octane gasoline, 95 - octane gasoline, and 0 - diesel increased by 0.55 yuan, 0.58 yuan, and 0.57 yuan per liter. It is predicted that the domestic refined oil price will continue to rise in the next adjustment window on March 23, with an expected increase of 0.5 - 1 yuan per liter [1]. - **Service Industry**: The Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs suggested appropriate reduction of oil consumption, increase in soybean and milk intake. The Minister of Transport stated that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the "Artificial Intelligence +" action will be implemented to develop intelligent transportation [1]. 2. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: Energy (liquefied natural gas and crude oil prices rising), agriculture (palm oil price rebounding), and non - ferrous metals (copper price slightly falling) [2]. - **Mid - stream**: Chemical industry (PX and urea operating rates at high levels, polyester operating rate at a low level), energy (power plant coal consumption decreasing, inventory at a low level), and infrastructure [2]. - **Downstream**: Real estate (seasonal decline in the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities), and service (decline in the number of domestic flights) [2]. 3. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On March 9, the spot price of corn was 2320.0 yuan/ton (up 0.93% year - on - year), eggs 6.4 yuan/kg (up 0.79% year - on - year), palm oil 9750.0 yuan/ton (up 8.94% year - on - year), cotton 16644.8 yuan/ton (up 0.30% year - on - year), and pork 17.1 yuan/kg (down 0.93% year - on - year) [32]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The spot price of copper was 100168.3 yuan/ton (down 1.98% year - on - year), zinc 24348.0 yuan/ton (down 0.03% year - on - year), aluminum 25223.3 yuan/ton (up 6.71% year - on - year), nickel 140300.0 yuan/ton (up 0.56% year - on - year), and another aluminum price 16675.0 yuan/ton (up 0.04% year - on - year) [32]. - **Metals**: The spot price of rebar was 3186.7 yuan/ton (up 1.78% year - on - year), iron ore 779.4 yuan/ton (up 1.62% year - on - year), and wire rod 3367.5 yuan/ton (up 1.28% year - on - year) [32]. - **Non - metals**: The spot price of glass was 13.5 yuan/square meter (up 0.75% year - on - year), natural rubber 16925.0 yuan/ton (down 0.59% year - on - year), and the China Plastic City Price Index was 950.0 (up 19.97% year - on - year) [32]. - **Energy**: The spot price of WTI crude oil was 90.9 dollars/barrel (up 35.63% year - on - year), Brent crude oil 92.7 dollars/barrel (up 27.20% year - on - year), liquefied natural gas 4926.0 yuan/ton (up 47.66% year - on - year), and coal 791.0 yuan/ton (down 0.38% year - on - year) [32]. - **Chemical Industry**: The spot price of PTA was 5857.3 yuan/ton (up 8.98% year - on - year), polyethylene 8650.0 yuan/ton (up 26.89% year - on - year), urea 1851.3 yuan/ton (down 0.27% year - on - year), and soda ash 1230.0 yuan/ton (up 2.26% year - on - year) [32]. - **Real Estate**: The national cement price index was 127.1 (down 1.25% year - on - year), the building materials composite index (up 0.39% year - on - year), and the national concrete price index was 89.8 (unchanged year - on - year) [32].

Group 1: Industry Insights on Holiday Consumption - The bright performance of holiday consumption during the Spring Festival in 2026 is attributed to a combination of the holiday consumption pulse effect, intensified policy support, and an extended holiday duration [1][12] - Service consumption saw a significant increase, with tourism spending rising by 18.7% year-on-year, while retail and catering consumption grew by 5.7%, surpassing the previous year's growth rates [1][12] - The pulse effect of holiday consumption is particularly pronounced among wage earners, whose consumption behavior is more reliant on holiday windows, leading to concentrated spending during the holiday period [12][13] Group 2: Consumer Trends and Policy Impact - The high growth in goods consumption during the holiday is primarily driven by the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy, rather than a significant holiday pulse effect [12][13] - Sales of six categories of home appliances and four categories of digital products benefiting from the "old-for-new" subsidies increased by 21.7% year-on-year, significantly outpacing overall goods consumption growth during the holiday [12][13] - The overall consumer demand remains weak when combining data from January and February, indicating that the foundation for a comprehensive recovery is not yet solid [4][12] Group 3: Sector-Specific Performance - In the energy and resources sector, coal supply constraints have intensified, while demand remains weak and stable, leading to a mixed price performance [3][26] - The real estate sector experienced a notable decline in new and second-hand housing transaction volumes, with investment continuing to drop during the seasonal low [3][34] - The financial sector saw an increase in A-share market activity, with new credit issuance exceeding expectations in January [3][11] Group 4: Future Outlook - The transmission of consumer recovery from corporate profit stabilization to disposable income growth is critical for future consumption trends [2][13] - The ongoing decline in disposable income growth, which was approximately 4.3% year-on-year as of December 2025, poses a constraint on consumption [2][13] - The adjustment of consumption targets by local governments for 2026 indicates a cautious outlook for overall consumer recovery, with many provinces lowering their retail sales growth targets [2][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company with a target price of 18.34 [7][13]. Core Insights - The company has successfully achieved multi-level financing breakthroughs, including the acceptance of its public REITs application, which is expected to raise 1.625 billion yuan [3][13]. - The company is positioned as a significant representative of private real estate enterprises in the REITs pilot program, with benchmark projects located in prime urban areas of the Yangtze River Delta [13]. - The company plans to issue various types of REITs products in 2026, with an asset evaluation of up to 8 billion yuan, aimed at optimizing its debt structure [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 119.174 billion yuan in 2023 to 53.687 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a decrease of 25.3% in 2024 and 34.3% in 2025 [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 737 million yuan in 2023 to 1.377 billion yuan in 2027, with a notable growth of 37.4% in 2026 [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.33 yuan in 2023 to 0.61 yuan in 2027 [5]. Market Data - The current stock price is 15.54 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 11.21 to 18.08 yuan [8]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 35.052 billion yuan and a total share capital of 2.256 billion shares [8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 45.63 in 2023 to 24.43 in 2027 [5]. Asset and Liability Overview - The company's total assets are expected to decrease from 374.109 billion yuan in 2023 to 267.737 billion yuan in 2026 [14]. - Shareholder equity is projected to grow from 60.078 billion yuan in 2023 to 69.137 billion yuan in 2027 [14]. - The net debt ratio is forecasted to be 56.85% in 2023, indicating a stable financial leverage position [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The government work report emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market, indicating a consistent focus on this area. Policies will encourage the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing and promote the revitalization of existing land and commercial properties [3] - Demand-side policies are expected to support first-time homebuyers and families with multiple children, aligning housing policies with population growth strategies [3] Industry Fundamentals Tracking - **New Home Transactions and Inventory**: In the last week, the new home transaction area in 30 major cities was 958,300 square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 11,945,200 square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 21.3%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 845,100 square meters, down 46.6% year-on-year and 7.5% month-on-month [4][12] - **Second-Hand Home Transactions and Listings**: In the last week, the transaction area for second-hand homes in 20 cities was 154,740 square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date area of 1,746,780 square meters, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.7% [5][17] - **Land Market Transactions**: In the last week, 21 residential land plots were newly supplied in 100 major cities, with 14 plots sold. The average floor price for residential land was 7,017.25 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 7.28%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.54 percentage points [25] Market Review - Last week, the A-share real estate index fell by 4.09%, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 1.07%, indicating that the real estate index underperformed the CSI 300 by 3.03 percentage points [28]

Group 1: Macro Insights - In February, CPI increased significantly due to the Spring Festival, expanded service demand, and rising international oil and gold prices, reaching a recent high [2] - PPI's decline is narrowing, influenced by resource nationalism and the US-Iran conflict, with expectations of a potential positive shift in March if oil prices remain high [2] Group 2: Industry Strategy - The March industry allocation perspective emphasizes growth and balanced styles, with high-scoring sectors including electric equipment, defense, electronics, and machinery, which are recommended for investor focus [3] Group 3: Real Estate Sector - As of March 8, 2026, new home transactions in 20 cities totaled 83,000 units, down 32.7% year-on-year; major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen saw declines of 29%, 15%, and 60% respectively [4] - Second-hand home transactions in 10 cities reached 151,000 units, a decrease of 7.8% year-on-year, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experiencing declines of 7%, 4%, and 12% respectively [4] Group 4: Company Research - The company plans to raise up to 5.8 billion yuan through a private placement to fund the construction of a cogeneration project and to supplement working capital and repay bank loans [5] - Expected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected at -3.084 billion, 1.539 billion, and 2.318 billion yuan respectively, maintaining an "accumulate" rating [5]