Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Thailand's delay in the rubber tapping season by one month boosts raw material prices, and the improvement in macro sentiment drives a slight rebound in rubber prices. However, the tariff policy weakens demand expectations, suppressing the upside of rubber prices. It is expected that rubber prices will mainly fluctuate widely, with an operating range of 14,500 - 15,500 [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton (0.34%), and the whole milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 140 yuan/ton (87.50%). The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton (-0.35%), and the non - standard price difference increased by 40 yuan/ton (12.90%). The prices of cup rubber and glue in the international market dropped to 0, with a decline of 100%. In Xishuangbanna, the price of rubber blocks remained unchanged, and the price of glue decreased by 400 yuan/ton (-2.92%). The mainstream prices of raw materials in Hainan remained unchanged [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-1.19%), the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton (-4.23%), and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 55 yuan/ton (24.44%) [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In March, Thailand's production decreased by 197,200 tons (-56.93%), Indonesia's production increased by 11,700 tons (5.92%), India's production decreased by 21,000 tons (-28.38%), and China's production increased by 15,800 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 14.08 percentage points, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 11.47 percentage points. Domestic tire production in March increased by 188,600 pieces (1.79%), and tire export volume increased by 1,853,000 pieces (42.34%). The total import volume of natural rubber increased by 90,900 tons (18.07%), and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) decreased by 7,500 tons (-9.87%) [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 3,797 tons (-0.62%), and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 3,527 tons (4.96%). The inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao increased by 2.18 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points. The inbound rate of dry rubber in general trade decreased by 1.16 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: Information about maintenance plans and price - holding in the soda ash market disturbs the market, and the market trend is volatile. If maintenance is implemented, it will relieve supply pressure. In the short - term, the supply side may face more pressure due to high - level production and the expected production of Lianyungang Soda Industry in May. The recent reduction in float glass production capacity and the resumption of photovoltaic production bring some demand for soda ash, and the inventory of soda ash plants has remained stable. Future maintenance situations can be tracked. If maintenance occurs, it will be beneficial to the June - July contracts. One can consider short - term high - selling operations for single - side rebounds and 7 - 9 positive spreads for inter - month operations [4]. - **Glass**: The policies issued by the State Council Information Office last week had limited impact on the actual demand for glass, and the market reaction was muted. Recently, the spot price of glass has weakened, and the prices in the Shahe market have generally declined. The sales of futures - cash merchants have affected the production - sales rate of manufacturers. Although the downstream deep - processing orders have improved seasonally from April to May, the macro - environment is weak, and there is an expectation of a summer rainy season starting in June, which will slow down demand. It is expected that the short - term glass price will continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to observe whether the 1000 level can support the 09 contract [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The price of Glass 2505 decreased by 6 yuan/ton (-0.57%), and the price of Glass 2509 decreased by 23 yuan/ton (-2.18%). The 05 basis increased by 6 yuan/ton (3.43%) [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The price of Soda Ash 2505 increased by 7 yuan/ton (0.54%), and the price of Soda Ash 2509 decreased by 18 yuan/ton (-1.39%). The 05 basis decreased by 7 yuan/ton (-3.41%) [4]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate decreased by 1.97 percentage points, the weekly production of soda ash decreased by 14,000 tons (-1.89%), the daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 3,000 tons (-1.71%), and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass increased by 1,300 tons (1.32%). The price of 3.2mm coated glass remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory increased by 257,100 heavy boxes (3.96%), the soda ash factory inventory increased by 29,000 tons (1.74%), the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 21,000 tons (5.89%), and the number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged [4]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The price of industrial silicon has remained weak. Although the industry is facing high supply and high - warehouse receipts pressure and the main demand continues to weaken, there are some signs of improvement. The supply in Sichuan has increased, but the reduction in Xinjiang has led to a significant weekly output decline, and warehouse receipts are being digested. Some enterprises in Xinjiang are reluctant to lower prices. The price fluctuation range is 8,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton. With limited demand growth, attention should be paid to whether there will be further production contractions [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and its basis decreased by 25 yuan/ton (-2.91%). The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and its basis decreased by 25 yuan/ton (-2.60%). The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton (-0.59%), and its basis decreased by 75 yuan/ton (-7.81%) [7]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-33.33%), the 2506 - 2507 spread remained unchanged, the 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton (14.29%), the 2508 - 2509 spread remained unchanged, and the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-25.00%) [7]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In March, the national industrial silicon production increased by 52,700 tons (18.20%), Xinjiang's production increased by 44,300 tons (26.57%), Yunnan's production increased by 1,400 tons, and Sichuan's production increased by 170 tons. The national开工率 increased by 6.78 percentage points, Xinjiang's开工率 increased by 30.41 percentage points, Yunnan's开工率 decreased by 2.16 percentage points, and Sichuan's开工率 increased by 53.13 percentage points. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased by 15,100 tons (-8.04%), the production of polysilicon decreased by 700 tons (-0.73%), the production of aluminum alloy increased by 28,000 tons (11.67%), and the export volume of industrial silicon decreased by 830 tons (-15.82%) [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory in Xinjiang factories decreased by 400 tons (1.87%), the inventory in Yunnan and Sichuan remained unchanged, the social inventory decreased by 700 tons (-1.16%), the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 540 tons (-1.57%), and the non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 160 tons (-0.62%) [7]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View There is a significant divergence between long and short positions in the polysilicon futures market, and the futures price has fluctuated significantly. The short side believes that demand decline will lead to inventory accumulation, price decline will be transmitted upstream, and cost reduction will open up downward space. The long side believes that production enterprises will increase maintenance and reduce production in May, which is expected to lead to slow inventory reduction. The futures price has fallen too fast and is at a large discount to the spot price, and the cost of deliverable products is higher. As of mid - May, there are still few warehouse receipts, and 20 lots of warehouse receipts have been cancelled, which is favorable for the long side. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate in the range of 36,000 - 42,000 yuan/ton. One can try to go long at low prices or engage in positive spreads [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased by 880 yuan/ton (-24.79%), and the cauliflower material basis decreased by 880 yuan/ton (-13.44%). The average prices of N - type 210mm silicon wafers decreased, and the average prices of some battery cells and components also decreased [8]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The price of PS2506 increased by 880 yuan/ton (2.38%). The spreads between some contracts increased, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread increased by 800 yuan/ton (53.16%), and the PS2507 - PS2508 spread increased by 80 yuan/ton (17.78%) [8]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The weekly production of silicon wafers decreased by 0.94 GW (-7.07%), and the weekly production of polysilicon decreased by 0.10 million tons (-4.46%). In April, the production of polysilicon decreased by 0.07 million tons (-0.73%), the import volume of polysilicon in March decreased by 0.02 million tons (-7.10%), the export volume decreased by 0.02 million tons (-10.40%), and the net export volume remained unchanged. In April, the production of silicon wafers increased by 7.59 GW (14.95%), the import volume in March decreased by 0.03 million tons (-32.03%), the export volume increased by 0.13 million tons (28.29%), and the net export volume increased by 0.16 million tons (42.57%). The demand for silicon wafers in April increased by 8.28 GW (14.36%) [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.40 million tons (-1.53%), the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.49 GW (-12.08%), and the polysilicon orders increased by 10 (33.33%) [8].

Core Viewpoint - The development of bionic synthetic rubber in China represents a significant technological breakthrough, addressing the supply-demand imbalance in the natural rubber industry and providing a sustainable alternative to natural rubber [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - China's natural rubber industry faces a severe supply-demand imbalance, with a projected production of 760,000 tons in 2024 against a consumption of 6,350,000 tons, leading to an import dependency of over 80% and a self-sufficiency rate below 15% [2]. - The strategic importance of natural rubber is highlighted, as it is classified as a strategic reserve material by major global economies, including the U.S. and the EU, due to its critical role in defense and industrial applications [2]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Researchers have made significant progress in the field of bionic synthetic rubber by analyzing the molecular structure and performance characteristics of natural rubber, leading to the successful design of synthetic alternatives that closely mimic natural rubber [3][4]. - Bionic synthetic rubber has demonstrated superior performance in aviation tire applications, with fatigue life and crack resistance exceeding that of natural rubber, indicating its potential to meet high industry standards [4]. Group 3: Environmental and Economic Benefits - The development of bionic synthetic rubber alleviates environmental issues associated with natural rubber cultivation, such as soil degradation and biodiversity loss, by reducing reliance on rubber plantations [5][6]. - Economically, bionic synthetic rubber offers consistent quality, lower production costs, and a stable supply chain, enhancing competitiveness in the market as production scales up [6][7]. Group 4: Social Implications - The shift towards bionic synthetic rubber is expected to improve the working conditions for rubber farmers, addressing labor shortages and health issues associated with traditional rubber harvesting practices [7].

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of May 6, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9175 (-25) CNY/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 1000 (+0) USD/ton; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11600 (+0) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -2850 (-250) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis of 285 (-235) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In April, China's butadiene production was 443,100 tons, down 3.8% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 121,500 tons, down 5.2% month-on-month; semi-steel tire production was 55.39 million units, down 7.2% month-on-month, and down 0.77% year-on-year; full-steel tire production was 13.08 million units, down 4.5% month-on-month, and down 3.4% year-on-year [2] - As of May 2, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed divergence: butadiene industry operating rate was 68.9%, down 2% month-on-month; high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber industry operating rate was 71.9%, up 5.8% month-on-month; semi-steel tire manufacturers' operating rate was 66.7%, down 7.8% month-on-month; full-steel tire manufacturers' operating rate was 59.5%, down 9.5% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of May 2, butadiene port inventory was 36,500 tons, up 1,700 tons month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory was 26,850 tons, down 1,790 tons, a decrease of 6.3% month-on-month; traders' inventory was 5,100 tons, up 1,490 tons, an increase of 41.3% month-on-month [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on May 6, Maoming Petrochemical's 5,000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit is scheduled for maintenance starting May 7, lasting approximately 20 days; downstream SBS units will also undergo maintenance [4] Market Analysis - On May 6, crude oil rebounded from low levels, boosting BR slightly, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2506 closing at 11,315 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.62% compared to the previous day's settlement price. Tariff issues have led to a decline in demand, and the supply of styrene-butadiene rubber is expected to increase significantly in May, resulting in a loose supply-demand balance. The butadiene supply-demand situation remains challenging due to simultaneous maintenance and production ramp-up in domestic facilities, with no significant contraction in domestic supply. Despite many Asian ethylene facilities undergoing maintenance in May, tariff issues may lead to a severe decline in orders for the automotive and tire manufacturing industries in Japan and South Korea, impacting the demand for butadiene in these regions and potentially leading to oversupply, which could increase imports to China or decrease Asian butadiene prices. Therefore, the cost support for BR is limited. In the natural rubber sector, smooth tapping in domestic and foreign production areas is pushing the supply side into seasonal weakness, putting pressure on natural rubber prices. On a macro level, the unresolved "tariff war" continues to create uncertainty in the market. Overall, cost support is limited, and with increased supply and weak demand for styrene-butadiene rubber, BR is expected to face downward pressure [5]

2025 年 04 月 28 日 合成橡胶：短期有支撑，但驱动有限 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 商 品 研 究 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,335 | 11,235 | 100 31640 | | | | | | 182,590 | 150,950 | | | | （06合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 42,499 | 41,730 | 769 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,035,589 | 842,572 | 193017 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 11,700 | 365 | 11335 | | | 月差 | BR05-BR06 | （民营） | 65 | 70 | -5 | | | 顺丁价格 | | | | ...

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Raw Materials and Spot Market - As of April 21, the price of high cis-butadiene rubber in Shandong, based on Daqing BR9000, closed at 11,450 CNY/ton, an increase of 50 CNY/ton compared to the previous period, contrary to earlier expectations [1] - The trading atmosphere has slightly improved compared to last week, although most prices remain in a backwardation state [1] Production and Operating Rates - In March, China's butadiene production was 460,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 9.9%; the production of high cis-butadiene rubber was 128,300 tons, up 14.8% month-on-month [2] - The operating rates for the butadiene industry were 74.1%, down 0.6%; for high cis-butadiene rubber, the rate was 62.8%, up 3.3% [2] - The operating rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers was 74.2%, down 0.3%, while for full-steel tire manufacturers, it was 67.4%, up 0.3% [2] Inventory Levels - As of April 16, butadiene port inventory was 35,600 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons; the factory inventory of high cis-butadiene rubber was 27,710 tons, up 560 tons, a 2.1% increase [3] - The inventory held by traders was 4,370 tons, a decrease of 330 tons, down 7% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on April 21, Shandong Weite Chemical Co., Ltd. plans to restart its 50,000 tons/year high cis-butadiene rubber unit within the week [4] Market Analysis - On April 21, the rubber sector rebounded along with commodities, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2505 closing at 11,195 CNY/ton, a rise of 1.77% [5] - The supply of butadiene remains ample, with two butadiene units scheduled for maintenance in late April, but new capacities from ExxonMobil and Wanhua are expected to supplement the market [5] - Demand for new orders is weak, compounded by high finished product inventories, leading to a decline in semi-steel tire operating rates and low full-steel tire operating rates [5] - Natural rubber production in Yunnan is normal, and the tapping process in Hainan is in line with seasonal expectations, with overall tapping expectations in Thailand remaining strong [5] - The ongoing "tariff war" adds to market uncertainty, which is expected to remain high [5] Operational Recommendations - The recommendation for short-term trading is to short BR2505 on rallies, with a short-term outlook indicating a downward trend [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Lanzhou Petrochemical plant, a historic synthetic rubber production base in Gansu Province, is expanding its capacity and focusing on technological innovation to become the largest producer of synthetic rubber in China while advancing towards high-end products [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Significance - Lanzhou Petrochemical is recognized as one of the earliest synthetic rubber production bases in New China, having produced the first domestic block of latex-butadiene rubber in May 1960 and the first block of nitrile rubber in August 1962 [2]. - Over the past 60 years, the plant has witnessed the evolution of synthetic rubber in China, contributing significantly to the industry [1]. Group 2: Production Capacity and Innovation - The current total production capacity of the Lanzhou Petrochemical plant is 250,000 tons per year, with a focus on high-end specialty products in 2024 [2]. - The plant has successfully developed six new products and expanded the production of four products, achieving a historical high in both variety and output, with over 3,200 tons of new product output [2]. - The introduction of intelligent control in the production process has significantly improved product quality and production efficiency, providing new technological support for industry development [2]. Group 3: Product Applications and Future Plans - Nitrile rubber produced at the plant is known for its oil resistance, heat resistance, and wear resistance, making it suitable for high-end construction, white goods insulation, refrigeration, automotive, and heavy equipment applications [3]. - The plant plans to build an additional nitrile rubber production unit with an annual capacity of 70,000 tons by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming to become the largest nitrile rubber producer globally [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core View of the Report - Since the US launched a tariff trade war at the beginning of April, the rubber market has declined significantly. However, considering the fundamentals, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The supply side is at the beginning of the new rubber - tapping season, and it will take time for production to increase. The domestic demand side shows strong tire开工, and the inventory growth in Qingdao is slowing down. The technical price has reached the lower limit of the operating center in the first half of last year, and the probability of further decline in the short - term is low [4][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Southeast Asia is about to start tapping, and domestic production is gradually increasing - In terms of supply from rubber - producing countries, according to ANRPC revised data, the rubber production in January 2025 continued the high - yield state of the fourth quarter of last year, with a year - on - year increase of 1.09 million tons. Although the output decreased rapidly in February compared with January, it still had a year - on - year increase of 750,000 tons. The supply during the low - yield season this year is looser than that of last year. It is expected that the data for March and April will also maintain a year - on - year positive state. - Overseas, after the Songkran Festival in Southeast Asian main producing areas, rubber tapping is expected to start gradually. In Thailand, some areas in the north and northeast are in trial tapping, and the south is expected to start normal tapping in late April and increase production in mid - May. In Vietnam, large - scale tapping has not started due to the dry season, and only individual state - owned farms have started trial tapping. - In China, the Yunnan production area is in the transition period of tapping, with slow growth of latex output. The Hainan production area is in the initial stage of tapping, with low overall latex output. Most processing plants have not officially started work, and only state - owned factories have started to purchase latex. It is expected that large - scale tapping will gradually start at the end of April or early May [5]. 3.2 Downstream tire start - up is strong and stable, and the terminal automobile market had a good start in the first quarter - In terms of downstream tire start - up, the overall performance in the first quarter of this year was good, especially in the second half after the Spring Festival. Although it has declined slightly recently due to the US tariff trade war, the start - up rate is still at a relatively high level. Currently, the all - steel tire start - up rate is maintained at 66.15%, and the semi - steel tire start - up rate is maintained at 78.52%, both higher than the best level in the second half of last year. - In terms of tire production, due to the high start - up rate in the first quarter, the tire output in the first two months increased by 15.2% year - on - year, reaching 176.5 million pieces. In terms of tire exports, the exports in January and February both achieved positive growth. Although the export volume in February decreased significantly compared with January, it still had a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. - In the terminal automobile market, in March, the production and sales of automobiles increased by 11.9% and 8.2% year - on - year respectively, and by 42.9% and 37% month - on - month respectively. In the first quarter, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles increased by 14.5% and 11.2% year - on - year respectively. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars increased significantly, while the performance of commercial vehicles was slightly weaker. The new energy vehicle market continued to heat up, with significant year - on - year and month - on - month increases [8][12][16]. 3.3 The growth of Qingdao inventory is slowing down, and the increase of futures warehouse receipts is stabilizing - According to the domestic inventory data, since the inventory in Qingdao started to increase again in November last year, the inventory has accumulated to a relatively high level. The inventory in Qingdao has increased from 413,000 tons at the beginning of November to 621,000 tons currently, with a cumulative increase of 50.36%. However, the growth rate has slowed down significantly recently, especially in the past two weeks, the increase has been less than 0.5%. - In terms of domestic futures inventory, since March, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber have continued to increase slightly, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - standard rubber futures, which had decreased before, have also increased again. Currently, the increase of Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts has slowed down, with the total amount exceeding 200,000 tons, and the 20 - standard rubber futures warehouse receipts have increased to 77,700 tons, with a steep increase rate [18][20]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Since the US launched a tariff trade war at the beginning of April, the rubber market has declined severely. The Shanghai rubber has broken through the high - level operating center since the fourth quarter of last year and reached the lower limit of the operating center in the first half of last year. The maximum phased decline this month was close to 2,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai rubber and more than 2,800 yuan/ton for 20 - standard rubber futures. - The tariff trade war has had a large short - term impact on the confidence of the industrial chain. The US tariff on China has increased to 125%. Although the rubber market has declined significantly recently, there is no need to be overly pessimistic from the perspective of fundamentals. The market may gradually digest the negative news around the 14,000 - yuan mark and wait for the production increase in each production area in the new rubber - tapping season and the further development of the US tariff trade war [24][25][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: Production is gradually recovering to a high level, and the weekly output has returned to around 73 - 740,000 tons. There has been a slight reduction in inventory, but with the increase in production, there is still expected to be inventory pressure. The market for soda ash remains under pressure due to the lag in photovoltaic resumption, and the futures market is expected to continue its weak oscillation in the future [1]. - Glass: The spot market is weak, and the macro - level is bearish, which jointly puts pressure on glass prices. The 05 contract is affected by the expansion of the delivery warehouse in Hubei and is showing a weak performance. The 09 contract has a relatively low price, and the market has expectations for stimulus policies, but there is currently no short - term driver [1]. Industrial Silicon The spot price of industrial silicon continues to decline, and the futures price has reached a new low. Supply has a slight increase, demand remains weak, and downstream prices are showing a downward trend, which drags down the price of industrial silicon. There are concerns about inventory accumulation, and the price fluctuation range is further adjusted to 8,500 - 10,500 yuan/ton [3]. Polysilicon The polysilicon futures price has fallen sharply, and the current spot price is at a significant premium to the futures price. There is support from downstream demand in April, but polysilicon inventory has not continued to decline, and downstream prices are starting to weaken. The futures price is expected to have limited room for further decline [4]. Natural Rubber Domestic rubber - producing areas are entering the new tapping season, and overseas areas are also gradually starting to tap after the Songkran Festival. The cost support for rubber prices has weakened. On the demand side, the inventory of semi - steel tires continues to increase, and enterprises are reducing production to control inventory. Short - term rubber prices are expected to face significant pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass: Spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The 2505 contract decreased by 0.69% to 1144 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract decreased by 2.07% to 1181 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 8.16% [1]. - Soda ash: Spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The 2505 contract decreased by 0.60% to 1331 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract decreased by 0.67% to 1368 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 3.79% [1]. Supply and Demand - Soda ash: The operating rate increased from 82.38% to 88.05%, and the weekly output increased by 3.46% to 737,700 tons. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [1]. - Glass: There is no significant change in the main supply - related data [1]. Inventory - Glass: The inventory in the market decreased by 0.84% to 65,203,000 weight boxes [1]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory decreased by 0.49% to 1.693 million tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 3.08% to 402,700 tons [1]. Real Estate Data New construction area decreased by 2.88% year - on - year, construction area decreased by 20.51% year - on - year, completion area increased by 5.27% year - on - year, and sales area increased by 1.81% year - on - year [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis The prices of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon all decreased, while the basis increased [3]. Monthly Fundamental Data In March, the national industrial silicon output increased by 18.20% to 3.422 million tons, the output in Xinjiang increased by 26.57% to 2.108 million tons, the output in Yunnan decreased by 14.58% to 123,000 tons, and the output in Sichuan increased by 170.59% to 46,000 tons. The national operating rate increased by 13.29% to 57.80% [3]. Inventory Changes Xinjiang factory inventory increased by 4.42% to 226,700 tons, Yunnan factory inventory decreased by 11.40% to 24,100 tons, social inventory increased by 0.66% to 612,000 tons, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.55% to 349,000 tons [3]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis The average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower - like material, and granular silicon remained unchanged. The basis of N - type material and cauliflower - like material increased [4]. Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads The PS2506 contract decreased by 0.54% to 40,265 yuan/ton. Some inter - month spreads changed significantly, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread increasing by 91.50% [4]. Weekly and Monthly Fundamental Data In March, the polysilicon output increased by 6.66% to 96,100 tons. In February, the import volume decreased by 29.29% to 23,000 tons, the export volume decreased by 72.88% to 16,000 tons, and the net export volume decreased by 130.20% to - 8,000 tons [4]. Inventory Changes Polysilicon inventory increased by 3.39% to 244,000 tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 8.37% to 19.15 GW [4]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber decreased by 0.68% to 14,650 yuan/ton, and the whole - latex basis decreased by 62.50%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.69% to 14,350 yuan/ton [5]. Inter - month Spreads The 9 - 1 spread increased by 7.06%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 21.47%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 138.10% [5]. Fundamental Data In February, the production in Thailand decreased by 37.99% to 3.464 million tons, in Indonesia decreased by 0.50% to 1.976 million tons, and in India decreased by 31.48% to 740,000 tons. The operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 3.23% to 78.52%, and the operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.37% to 66.15% [5]. Inventory Changes The bonded area inventory increased by 0.13% to 620,670 tons, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 49.13% to 77,717 tons [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent domestic raw material supply is abundant, prices are weak, and cost support is insufficient. Although there are maintenance plans for two butadiene plants in mid - late April, the supply of butadiene is expected to decline, but the simultaneous maintenance of downstream butadiene rubber offsets some of the support brought by the maintenance. The inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises decreased slightly last week, but some enterprises had inventory accumulation pressure. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, especially for semi - steel tires. The tariff policy has led to concerns about trade contraction, which will cause the futures price of synthetic rubber to fall. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 12,555 yuan/ton, a decrease of 615 yuan; the position of the main contract was 26,574 lots, a decrease of 2,132 lots; the net position of the top 20 in futures was - 6 lots, unchanged; the price difference between April and May of synthetic rubber was 805 yuan/ton, an increase of 770 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 9,440 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical was 13,550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 200 - 250 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber was 445 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. The price of Brent crude oil was 65.58 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 4.56 dollars; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 845 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 845 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,340 dollars/ton, a decrease of 31.75 dollars; the price of WTI crude oil was 61.99 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 4.96 dollars; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 11,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan. The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 13.94 million tons/week, an increase of 0.01 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 75.37%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 30,800 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 47.34%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 11.18 million tons, a decrease of 1.81 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 58.4%, a decrease of 5.77 percentage points. The weekly production profit was - 236 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan; the social inventory was 3.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 25,750 tons, a decrease of 230 tons; the trader's inventory was 5,760 tons, a decrease of 420 tons. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 81.75%, a decrease of 1.24 percentage points; the operating rate of full - steel tires was 66.52%, a decrease of 1.59 percentage points. The monthly output of full - steel tires was 10.6 million pieces, an increase of 2.32 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 48.1 million pieces, an increase of 3.25 million pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong were 40.98 days, a decrease of 1.29 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 43.28 days, a decrease of 0.4 days [2] Industry News - As of April 2, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02%. After the maintenance of some private plants in North and East China, the inventory level decreased, but some production enterprises had inventory accumulation pressure. As of April 3, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 75.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38 percentage points, a year - on - year decrease of 5.07 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78 percentage points. Semi - steel tire enterprises had high shipment pressure, and new orders were less than expected, so some enterprises reduced production. Most full - steel tire enterprises had stable production, and some adjusted production due to inventory pressure [2]