1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is challenging, and it's recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2] - Due to the complex situation, short - term trading strategies should be cautious, and long - term strategies should wait for the market to stabilize [3] 3. Summary by Related Content SCFIS, NCFI, and Other Shipping Indexes - On August 1st, compared with the previous period, the NCFI (composite index) was 1087.66 points, down 2.06%; the SCFIS (European route) was 2400.50 points, down 0.9%; the NCFI (European route) was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1301.81 points, up 2.8%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [1] - Also on August 1st, the SCFI was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points; the CCFI (composite index) was 1232.29 points, down 2.3%; the SCFI European route price was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%; the CCFI (European route) was 1789.50 points, up 0.1%; the SCFI US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23%; the CCFI (US West route) was 876.57 points, down 0.5% [1] Economic Data of Different Regions - The Eurozone's July manufacturing PMI initial value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the service industry PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7; the composite PMI initial value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The July SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [1] - In July, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7), the service industry PMI initial value was 55.2 (expected 53), and the composite PMI initial value was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [2] - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] Market and Policy Influences - Trump's tariff hikes on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, have increased the difficulty of the game in the shipping market. Some shipping companies have announced price increases, and the Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1st [2] - The spot market has set a price range and made small price increases to test the market, leading to a small rebound in the market [2] Trading and Contract Information - On August 1st, the main contract 2510 closed at 1424.0, with a decline of 0.29%, a trading volume of 35,700 lots, and an open interest of 52,400 lots, an increase of 558 lots from the previous day [2] - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take partial profits from the long positions in the 2510 contract below 1300 and short the EC2512 contract lightly and take profits. Set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Amid international turmoil, the market shows a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [3] - Long - term strategy: It's recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [3] - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, and the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all 2508 - 2606 contracts is 100 lots [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts, tariff fluctuations, and market uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines. The short - term market may rebound, and different strategies are proposed for different contracts [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Sentiment and Price Trends - Most commodities are falling, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and wide - range market fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1]. - Some shipping companies have announced price increases, and there has been a small price increase to test the market, leading to a small rebound in the market [2]. - The overall market atmosphere is bearish, with wide - range market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2]. Freight Index Changes - On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1087.66 points, down 2.06% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1372.67 points, down 3.53% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% from the previous period [1]. - On August 1, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1232.29 points, down 2.3% from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1789.50 points, up 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 876.57 points, down 0.5% from the previous period [1]. Economic Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the July services PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the July composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The eurozone's July SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [1]. - The US July manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the July services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the July composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [2]. - As of July 31, the US average effective tariff rate on imported goods reached 18.9%, the highest since 1934. Tariff policies will reduce the US GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points in 2025 and 2026, increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025 and 0.7 percentage points by the end of 2026, and increase the average household expenditure by $2400 in 2025 [4]. Trading Data - On August 1, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1424.0, with a decline of 0.29%, a trading volume of 35,700 lots, and an open interest of 52,400 lots, an increase of 558 lots from the previous day [2]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are recommended to take a light - position long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (with a profit margin of over 300 points) and partially take profits; a light - position short on the EC2512 contract is recommended, and profit - taking is advised. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - losses should be set [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Given the volatile international situation, the market is mainly in a positive - spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [3]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [3]. Policy and Geopolitical Information - Trump has imposed additional tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further impacts transit trade. The tariff negotiation date has been postponed to August 1 [2]. - The Israeli opposition leader called for an end to the Gaza war, while Hamas stated that it would not give up armed resistance without the full restoration of national rights [4].

Core Insights - The article highlights the innovative development path of Jiangsu Xinglian Shipping Co., Ltd. under the leadership of Chairman Liu Xiangyang, showcasing the rise of national brands and the entrepreneurial spirit in China's shipping industry [1][2]. Company Overview - Jiangsu Xinglian Shipping Co., Ltd. was founded by Liu Xiangyang, who transitioned from a state-owned enterprise to leading a private shipping company, preserving over 100 jobs during a challenging economic period [2]. - The company emphasizes an "employee-centered" philosophy, embedding the vision of "Beautiful Xinglian" into its corporate culture [2]. Business Strategy - The company adopts a "differentiated operation and specialized service" strategy to combat market homogenization, initially focusing on small bulk carriers and expanding into the Far East-Southeast Asia routes [3]. - Xinglian Shipping has developed a fleet comprising 10 owned and chartered vessels, covering over 60 countries and regions globally, with routes extending to Southeast Asia and the Middle East [3]. Service Innovation - The company pioneered a "cargo allocation optimization mechanism" to enhance service quality, achieving a cargo loss rate lower than the industry average [4]. - The dual-flag operation model balances national responsibilities with market flexibility, while cost control measures have kept operational costs below industry averages [4]. Market Resilience - Xinglian Shipping maintains a fleet size of 10 owned vessels, utilizing a chartering model to ensure operational flexibility, which proved effective during the COVID-19 pandemic [5]. - The company has established a long-term partnership with Shanghai Port Group, achieving an 85% customer retention rate, significantly higher than the industry average [5]. Talent Development - The company has implemented a "shore-based + crew" elite team structure and a "shore and ship rotation" training mechanism, achieving a 100% certification rate among crew members [5]. - Collaborations with Dalian Maritime University for training and scholarship programs have created a talent pool, reducing turnover in key positions [5]. Social Responsibility - Xinglian Shipping has invested in a modern logistics base in Lianyungang, increasing local port throughput by 12% and creating over 300 indirect jobs, contributing to a shipping-logistics industry cluster [5]. Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on smart vessels and power fleets as the global shipping industry transitions to digitalization and green initiatives, demonstrating a commitment to innovation and responsibility [6].

证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输行业周报（20250728-20250803） 一、聚焦：继续强调"反内卷"下电商快递投资机会 1、 以史为鉴："反内卷"在快递行业是否有效且能否持续推进？ 1）从 21 年经验看，义乌地区率先涨价并逐步扩散。根据邮管局数据计算，21 年 9 月义乌地区单票价格 2.94 元，环比 8 月 2.64 元上涨 0.3 元，价格同比由 8 月的-16%迅速收窄至-1%；此后，在 21 年四季度，价格仍表现坚挺，10 月 义乌地区单票收入同比回正至+2%，11-12 月同比+8%，2022 年 1-8 月依然保 持同比正增。而从全国范围看，申通、韵达、圆通单票收入环比持续提升，可 推测涨价落地并逐步扩散。21 年 9 月三家环比分别上涨 0.16、0.09 和 0.15 元， 到 11 月三家相较于 8 月分别上涨 0.51、0.33、0.46 元（当中包含旺季季节性 涨幅）。同比看，圆通 21 年 8 月实现单票同比转正，21 年 11 月三家均实现价 格同比正增。2）2021 年-22 年的经验看，行业具备价格-盈利提升的传导潜力。 最为显著的，如圆通从 21Q3 的单票扣非净利 ...

快递：义乌广东底价上调，反内卷将保障良性竞争 1)过去数年邮管局保障良性竞争。2020年极兔入局抢夺份额致行业陷入非理性价格战;随着网络稳定性 风险凸显，2021年3月义乌邮管局及时出手干预，要求底价提升且不低于成本;21Q3单票收入中枢回升， Q4盈利估值复。2)反内卷深化有望推动竞争趋缓。头部企业份额关注度自24下半年再次明显提升，25 上半年价格竞争加剧，25Q2行业盈利降幅增大且网络稳定性风险增加。近期国家邮政局强调将旗帜鲜 明反对"内卷式"竞争，上周召开快递企业座谈强调总部要履行好主体责任，确保网络平稳运行和基层网 点稳定。7月义乌底价已实现提升，预计8月广东亦将上调底价，考虑提价对小件或有影响，实际提价幅 度有待观察。该行认为"反内卷"将继续保障良性竞争，短期有利于缓和竞争压力，中长期有利于行业自 然集中。 航运：集运干线运价小幅回落，关注美国对俄制裁加码 1)集运：已进入传统旺季，贸易货量仍较为平稳，上周亚洲至欧美干线运价继续小幅回落。2)油运：上 周中东-中国VLCC TCE回落至2.4万美元。据船舶经纪Gibson，特朗普或通过次级关税的方式限制俄罗 斯原油出口。过去两周俄原油出口已回落近三 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has entered into a shipbuilding contract for the construction of four container vessels, indicating a strategic expansion in its fleet capacity [1] Group 1: Contract Details - The contract was signed on August 2, 2025, between the company's wholly-owned subsidiary and the shipbuilder [1] - Each vessel will cost up to $38,180,000, equivalent to approximately HKD 299,713,000 [1] - The total cost for all four vessels could reach up to $152,720,000, which is about HKD 1,198,852,000 [1]

（文章来源：人民日报） 本报北京8月3日电 （记者韩鑫）记者从交通运输部获悉：为进一步提升海事政务服务标准化、规范 化、便利化水平，更好服务船员，从8月1日起，我国全面应用船员类电子证照。 船员类电子证照包括船员适任证书、培训合格证、健康证明、机构许可证等22种，与纸质证照具有同等 法律效力。船员可在海事通APP或"海事一网通办"平台查询并获取电子证照，无需现场办证或等待证书 邮寄。电子证照应用后，海事现场检查等不再要求船员出示纸质证书，相关单位也可通过海事通APP、 微信、支付宝等的扫码功能扫描电子证照所附二维码，或登录交通运输部海事局官网进行核验，避免证 书造假带来的风险。 据介绍，2025年8月1日至12月31日为过渡期，签发机构将同时发放船员类电子证照和纸质证照。过渡期 后，沿海航区船员、内河船员及相关机构确有需要纸质证照的，仍可按规定向签发机构申领。 ...

马士基是全球最大集装箱航运公司之一。该条航线是马士基首条中国厦门到菲律宾马尼拉直航航线，挂 靠路径为"仁川-新港-宁波-厦门-马尼拉南港-上海"，全程覆盖东亚与东南亚核心港口。航线开通后，厦 门至马尼拉运输时间仅需3天。 【东盟专线】厦门港至马尼拉南港开通新航线 "马尼拉南港是菲律宾重要枢纽，但此前厦门直航航线较少，PH1航线的开通为中菲经贸往来提供更便 捷通道。"厦门边检总站东渡边检站执勤二队副队长王俊斌说。 中新社厦门8月3日电 (林永传卢颖臻) 8月3日，马士基近洋菲律宾线PH1航线正式开通。 该站针对PH1航线等以运输高时效跨境电商货物为主的船舶开通"绿色通道"，对高时效货类实施优先验 放，同时优化船员换班流程，实现换班环节无缝衔接，极大提高作业效率和码头周转率。 近年来，厦门港持续强化与东盟国家航运联通，先后引入马士基HP2航线(厦门-越南海防)、海丰集运 CPX7航线(厦门-菲律宾伊洛伊洛)等优质航线。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China - Europe Base Port: In August, the monthly average weekly capacity was 347,300 TEU, and in September, it was 297,100 TEU. In August, Maersk added two additional vessels, and the OA Alliance added one. There were 4 blank sailings in August, all from the OA Alliance, and currently 3 TBNs in August and 2 in September [2][115]. - August Contract: The top of the freight rate has appeared. The estimated SCFIS on August 4th and 11th is between 2300 - 2400 points. The delivery settlement price has been revised down to 2100 - 2200 points. Pay attention to Maersk's Week 34 opening price [3][122]. - October Contract: It is mainly for short - allocation. Normally, October is one of the two months with the lowest freight rates in a year. The 10 - month contract price is usually 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Currently, the 10 - contract is equivalent to a spot price of around $2000/FEU. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract on rallies, but do not over - short [4][123]. - December Contract: The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists. The risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. Normally, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [6][124]. Summary by Directory 7 - Month Container Freight Rate Review - Futures Market: As of August 1st, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 75,300 lots, and the trading volume on that day was 41,800 lots. In July, the EC2508 contract rose 20.73%, the EC2510 contract rose 6.35%, the EC2512 contract rose 12.83%, the EC2602 contract rose 13.93%, and the EC2604 contract rose 13.27% [11]. - Spot Price Performance: In July, most routes saw price increases. Among the 10 routes counted by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, 4 routes had an increase of over 50%. The SCFIS European route (basic port) rose 9.1% to 2316.56 points, and the SCFIS US - West route (basic port) fell 20.7 to 1284.01 points [22]. - Forward Spot Quotation: The forward quotation has peaked and declined. Different shipping companies have different price trends for different weeks and ship - departure periods [35]. Supply Chain - Overall Contradiction: The overall contradiction is small. The number of container ships passing through the Suez Canal is still at a low level. The container ship diversion pattern continues. The number of container ships passing through the Cape of Good Hope has increased significantly [39]. - Global Supply Chain: The supply - chain efficiency is continuously recovering. In June, the comprehensive punctuality rate of global main routes was 47.58%, approaching the high in 2023. The punctuality rates of Asian - European, Asian - US West, and Asian - US East routes have all reached new highs [49]. - Port Congestion: The overall port congestion pressure is small, but there is local pressure. As of July 31, 2025, the global container ship congestion capacity was 9.96 million TEU, accounting for 31% of the total container ship capacity [56]. Capacity Supply - Global Supply: The container ship delivery pressure remains large. New shipbuilding orders are at a high level. In 2024, shipping companies significantly increased container ship orders. In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries, and the ship - dismantling pressure is limited [67][72]. - Far East - Europe Route Capacity Supply: The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships on the Far East - Europe route is still large. From 2025 - 2028, there will still be significant supply - side pressure [87][92]. Overseas Demand - Eurozone Economy: The Eurozone economy stabilized in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the GDP increased by 1.2% year - on - year and 0.4% quarter - on - quarter. The inflation is stable, and the market confidence has improved to some extent, but it is still affected by the shadow of tariffs [103]. - Import Demand: In 2025, the European import demand is acceptable. From January to May, the container trade volume between the Far East and Europe increased by 10.6% year - on - year, while China's exports to the US decreased by 10.71% from January to June [105][107]. European Line Strategy - Freight Rate Trend: The top of the freight rate has appeared. Pay attention to the downward slope of the freight rate in the later stage. The capacity in August and September is relatively high, and there are additional vessels in August for Maersk and the OA Alliance [115][122].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Haifeng International (01308), has announced a shipbuilding contract with Huanghai Shipbuilding for the construction of four container vessels, indicating an expansion of its fleet to meet operational demands [1] Group 1: Contract Details - The contract was signed on August 2, 2025, between Haifeng Shipping, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, and Huanghai Shipbuilding [1] - Each vessel will cost up to $38.18 million, equivalent to approximately HKD 299.7 million [1] - The total cost for the four vessels will be up to $152.7 million, equivalent to approximately HKD 1.199 billion [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The new vessels will enable the company to expand its owned container fleet [1] - This expansion is aimed at meeting the growing operational demands of the company [1]