油脂油料产业日报 2025/06/23 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

Core Insights - The oilseed and oil industry is significantly influenced by natural factors and international market trends, leading to substantial price volatility, which impacts upstream and downstream sectors as well as daily life [1] - The futures market provides effective risk management tools for oilseed and oil-related enterprises, with the introduction of various derivatives like futures and options for rapeseed oil and meal [1][4] - The increasing maturity of the futures market has led to more companies actively using these tools to stabilize operations and manage risks [2] Group 1: Risk Management - Companies utilize futures contracts to hedge against price fluctuations, ensuring stable raw material supply and controllable costs [2] - The integration of futures tools with spot operations allows companies to build more resilient business models and optimize resource allocation [2][3] - The "basis trading" strategy helps companies synchronize sales and raw material procurement, effectively mitigating risks from price volatility [3] Group 2: Industry Collaboration - Futures and options products promote collaborative development across the oilseed and oil industry, with futures prices serving as a key reference for production planning [4] - Farmers can secure sales prices through forward contracts with processing companies, ensuring stable income [4] - The collaborative approach among industry players fosters a risk-sharing mechanism, enhancing competitiveness and ensuring the supply of essential agricultural products [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange aims to continuously support industry enterprises in effectively utilizing futures tools to stabilize the development of the supply chain [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil production is expected to increase month - on - month, with seasonal production growth approaching, increasing supply expectations. Although domestic port inventories are currently low, as origin quotes weaken, future purchases are emerging. With the current inverted soybean - palm oil price spread, there is no incremental consumption, and inventory is expected to grow, requiring a further narrowing of the spread to stimulate consumption [3]. - For soybean oil, as purchased ships arrive at ports, supply pressure is increasing, and oil mill压榨 is expected to rise. With no incremental consumption to absorb the supply, inventory is expected to enter a build - up cycle. Given the expected increase in both palm oil and soybean oil supply, the soybean - palm oil price spread may repair in the far - month to compete for market share [3]. - Regarding rapeseed oil, the expected improvement in China - Canada relations has reduced the premium in the market's policy - related trading. The current supply is at a peak, but new supply will be limited, and the marginal inventory reduction is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. High inventory is suppressing prices, but policy uncertainty provides support for far - month prices [3]. - For imported soybeans, Brazilian premiums are firm, and the domestic market has strengthened with the international market. The estimated arrivals are 11 million tons in June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the second and third quarters is abundant, and the fourth - quarter supply depends on China - US negotiations [15]. - In the domestic soybean meal market, prices have strengthened with the international market due to China - US negotiation expectations. However, the concentrated arrival of soybeans in the third quarter will put pressure on prices. Downstream demand is weak, and the basis remains weak [15]. - In the rapeseed meal market, there is still supply pressure in June, and downstream demand is below expectations. The inventory reduction is difficult. The far - month supply has some gaps, but demand is limited. The market is weak, and future trends depend on China - Canada trade relations [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Oil Price Spreads - Palm oil spreads: P 1 - 5 is 122 yuan/ton with a daily change of - 4 yuan/ton; P 5 - 9 is - 152 yuan/ton with a daily change of 16 yuan/ton; P 9 - 1 is 30 yuan/ton with a daily change of - 12 yuan/ton [4]. - Soybean - palm oil spreads: Y - P 01 is - 432 yuan/ton with a daily change of 30 yuan/ton; Y - P 05 is - 650 yuan/ton with a daily change of 20 yuan/ton; Y - P 09 is - 386 yuan/ton with a daily change of 48 yuan/ton [4]. - Other spreads: Y/M and OI/RM also have corresponding price and change data [4]. 3.2. Palm Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Palm oil futures prices: Palm oil 01 is 8504 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%; Palm oil 05 is 8382 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%; Palm oil 09 is 8536 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.02% [6]. - Spot and related prices: BMD palm oil主力 is 4143 ringgit/ton with an increase of 0.95%; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 8730 yuan/ton with a decline of 30 yuan/ton; the basis is 222 yuan/ton with a decline of 30 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3. Soybean Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Soybean oil futures prices: Soybean oil 01 is 8082 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.23%; Soybean oil 05 is 7736 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.04%; Soybean oil 09 is 8156 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.32% [12]. - Spot and related prices: CBOT soybean oil主力 is 54.62 cents/pound with a decline of 0.13%; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is 8300 yuan/ton with an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the basis is 98 yuan/ton with a decline of 18 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4. Oilseed Futures Prices - Soybean meal futures prices: Soybean meal 01 is 3097 with a decline of 7 and a decline rate of 0.23%; Soybean meal 05 is 2768 with a decline of 1 and a decline rate of 0.04%; Soybean meal 09 is 3067 with a decline of 10 and a decline rate of 0.32% [16]. - Rapeseed meal futures prices: Rapeseed meal 01 is 2395 with a decline of 33 and a decline rate of 1.36%; Rapeseed meal 05 is 2389 with a decline of 21 and a decline rate of 0.87%; Rapeseed meal 09 is 2679 with a decline of 15 and a decline rate of 0.56% [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the week ending June 12, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 600,000 tons, with 0 - 400,000 tons for the 2024 - 2025 season and 0 - 200,000 tons for the 2025 - 2026 season. US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 150,000 - 450,000 tons, with 150,000 - 350,000 tons for the 2024 - 2025 season and 0 - 100,000 tons for the 2025 - 2026 season. US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 32,000 tons, with 0 - 22,000 tons for the 2024 - 2025 season and 0 - 10,000 tons for the 2025 - 2026 season [1]. - The estimated soybean production in Argentina for the 2024/2025 season is 4.88 million tons, slightly higher than the previous estimate. The US Department of Agriculture predicts the production to be 4.9 million tons, the same as the May estimate. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange and the Rosario Grain Exchange currently estimate the production to be 5.03 million tons and 4.85 million tons respectively [1]. - As of now, Argentina's soybean harvest rate has reached 95%, slightly lower than 97% in the same period last year. The weather is expected to be drier in the next two weeks, which will help complete the remaining harvest on time [1]. - In May, China's palm oil imports were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%. From January to May, palm oil imports were 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.6%. In May, China's soybean oil imports were 10,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86.6%. From January to May, soybean oil imports were 30,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 75.8%. In May, China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.3%. From January to May, imports were 1.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.0% [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Export Sales Forecast - US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 600,000 tons as of the week ending June 12, with 0 - 400,000 tons for the 2024 - 2025 season and 0 - 200,000 tons for the 2025 - 2026 season [1]. - US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 150,000 - 450,000 tons, with 150,000 - 350,000 tons for the 2024 - 2025 season and 0 - 100,000 tons for the 2025 - 2026 season [1]. - US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 32,000 tons, with 0 - 22,000 tons for the 2024 - 2025 season and 0 - 10,000 tons for the 2025 - 2026 season [1]. Argentina's Soybean Production - The estimated soybean production in Argentina for the 2024/2025 season is 4.88 million tons, slightly higher than the previous estimate. The US Department of Agriculture predicts 4.9 million tons, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates 5.03 million tons, and the Rosario Grain Exchange estimates 4.85 million tons [1]. - As of now, Argentina's soybean harvest rate has reached 95%, slightly lower than 97% in the same period last year. The weather will be drier in the next two weeks, helping to complete the remaining harvest on time [1]. China's Oil Imports - In May, China's palm oil imports were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%. From January to May, imports were 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.6% [1]. - In May, China's soybean oil imports were 10,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86.6%. From January to May, imports were 30,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 75.8% [1]. - In May, China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.3%. From January to May, imports were 1.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.0% [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of various oils and meals in different regions from June 12 to June 18, 2025, are presented, including prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [2]. Basis and Spread - Multiple charts show the basis and spread of protein meals and oils, including the basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil at different delivery months in different regions, as well as the price spreads between different varieties and different delivery months [3][5][8].

Report Overview - Report Title: Oil and Oilseed Industry Daily Report - Report Date: June 18, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View Fats and Oils - **Palm Oil**: Production in the producing regions is expected to increase month - on - month, and the approaching seasonal production increase adds to the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently low, as the origin's offer weakens, subsequent purchases are emerging. Due to the inverted soybean - palm oil price spread, there is no incremental consumption, and the inventory is expected to increase. It is necessary to further shrink the soybean - palm oil price spread to find consumption [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: With the arrival of purchased ships, the supply pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill crushing volume will rise. However, due to the lack of incremental consumption, the inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle. With the expected increase in both palm oil and soybean oil supply, the soybean - palm oil price spread may be repaired in the far - month to compete for market share [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The recent expected improvement in China - Canada relations has hit the premium of the policy - expected trading on the market. The current supply is at a phased peak, and the marginal depletion rate is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. Consumption is limited to the rigid - demand level due to the policy premium and the unfavorable rapeseed - soybean oil price spread. There is high - inventory pressure, but policy uncertainty provides support for the far - month [3]. Oilseeds - **Imported Soybeans**: Brazilian premiums are firm, and the domestic market has strengthened following the international market. The far - month crushing margin has weakened slightly, and the far - month Brazilian premium is high. The estimated arrivals are 11 million tons in June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. Supply in the second and third quarters is still abundant, and the situation of China - US negotiations in the fourth quarter should be monitored [15]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: Driven by the expectation of China - US talks, domestic soybean meal has strengthened following the international market. The soybean raw material inventory of oil mills is rising, and the soybean meal inventory is also being repaired. The concentrated arrival of soybeans in the third quarter will suppress soybean meal prices. Downstream demand is mainly focused on fulfilling previous contracts, and the basis remains weak [15]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: There is still supply pressure in June, and downstream demand is lower than expected. Inventory depletion is difficult. Although there are some supply gaps in the far - month, demand is limited. Due to the continuous meetings between China and Canada, the market is weak, and subsequent attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fats and Oils Fats and Oils Month - to - Month and Variety - to - Variety Spreads - **Palm Oil**: P 1 - 5 is 122 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 8 yuan; P 5 - 9 is - 162 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 16 yuan; P 9 - 1 is 40 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 24 yuan [4]. - **Soybean Oil - Palm Oil Spread**: Y - P 01 is - 492 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 14 yuan; Y - P 05 is - 670 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 12 yuan; Y - P 09 is - 474 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2 yuan [4]. - **Soybean Oil - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Y/M 01 is 2.5546 with a daily decrease of 0.55%; Y/M 05 is 2.7607 with a daily decrease of 0.26%; Y/M 09 is 2.5934 with a daily decrease of 0.79% [4]. - **Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: OI/RM 01 is 3.9544 with a daily increase of 0.15%; OI/RM 05 is 3.8555 with a daily decrease of 0.04%; OI/RM 09 is 3.5731 with a daily increase of 0.41% [4]. Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Palm oil 01 is 8476 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.83%; palm oil 05 is 8350 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.8%; palm oil 09 is 8518 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.85% [6]. - BMD palm oil main contract is 4066 ringgit/ton with a daily decrease of 0.68% [6]. - Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 8770 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 40 yuan; the basis is 284 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 20 yuan [6]. Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Soybean oil 01 is 8014 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.1%; soybean oil 05 is 7680 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.11%; soybean oil 09 is 8084 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.39% [11]. - CBOT soybean oil main contract is 54.69 cents/pound with a daily decrease of 0.76% [11]. - Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is 8200 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 80 yuan; the basis is 148 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 8 yuan [11]. Oilseeds Oilseed Futures Prices - **Soybean Meal**: Bean meal 01 is 3095 with a daily decrease of 3 and a decrease rate of 0.1%; bean meal 05 is 2761 with a daily increase of 3 and an increase rate of 0.11%; bean meal 09 is 3062 with a daily decrease of 12 and a decrease rate of 0.39% [16]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal 01 is 2412 with a daily increase of 20 and an increase rate of 0.84%; rapeseed meal 05 is 2407 with a daily increase of 13 and an increase rate of 0.54%; rapeseed meal 09 is 2688 with a daily increase of 6 and an increase rate of 0.22% [18]. - **CBOT Yellow Soybeans**: The closing price is 1068 with no daily change and a change rate of 0% [18]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - **Soybean Meal Month - to - Month Spread**: M01 - 05 is 340 with a daily increase of 4; M05 - 09 is - 316 with a daily decrease of 8; M09 - 01 is - 24 with a daily increase of 4 [19]. - **Rapeseed Meal Month - to - Month Spread**: RM01 - 05 is - 2 with a daily increase of 5; RM05 - 09 is - 288 with a daily increase of 2; RM09 - 01 is 290 with a daily decrease of 7 [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread**: The spread is 349 with a daily increase of 19; the futures spread is 392 with a daily increase of 18 [19].

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by geopolitical tensions, favorable policies, and increased export volumes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 16, palm oil futures opened at 8170.00 CNY/ton and reached a high of 8482.00 CNY, with a price increase of 3.76% [1]. - The market sentiment is bullish, with significant trading activity leading to a surge in palm oil prices [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Tensions in the Middle East have caused a spike in international crude oil prices, positively impacting the oilseed sector [1]. - The U.S. biodiesel policy expectations are favorable, boosting market sentiment [1]. - Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 27%, contributing to a rise in domestic palm oil transaction volumes and inventory levels reaching 400,000 tons [1]. Group 3: Production and Export Data - Data from SPPOMA indicates a 17.24% decrease in Malaysian palm oil production for the period of June 1-10, 2025 [1]. - Export figures for Malaysian palm oil show increases of 26.4%, 32.69%, and 8.07% compared to the previous month, according to ITS, SGS, and AmSpec data [1]. - The strong export performance in May, particularly from India, along with reduced import tariffs, has further stimulated market optimism [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The domestic oilseed market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with recommendations for palm oil support levels around 7800 CNY [1]. - Caution is advised for positions above 8500 CNY due to potential inventory accumulation [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Medium - term, the market may maintain range - bound operation, with a current outlook of "Oscillating" [4] - **Protein Meal**: The outlook is "Oscillating". The spot is expected to be weaker than the futures, and the basis is expected to remain weak [4] - **Corn and Starch**: The outlook is "Oscillating" [4][6] - **Pigs**: The outlook is "Oscillating Weakly", with near - term contracts being weaker and far - term contracts being stronger [2][6] - **Natural Rubber**: The outlook is that the downward trend may continue, with a current situation of "Oscillating" [7][8] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It should be treated weakly, with an outlook of "Oscillating" [8][9] - **Cotton**: Short - term "Oscillating", long - term "Oscillating Weakly" [9] - **Sugar**: Long - term, there is a downward drive; short - term, "Oscillating Weakly" [10] - **Pulp**: The outlook is "Oscillating" [10] - **Logs**: The outlook is "Oscillating Weakly" [11][13] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market shows a complex situation. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, such as pigs with high inventory weights and increasing supply in the third quarter, and sugar with an expected increase in supply in the new season. Some products are affected by weather, trade policies, and other factors, like oils and fats being influenced by trade policies and overseas biodiesel policies, and rubber being affected by macro - sentiment and African tariff policies [2][4][6][7][8][9][10][11][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: The US soybean planting is nearing completion, and the growth is good. The domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to rise. The short - term palm oil production increase pressure may decrease marginally. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, and the import volume may decrease. In the medium term, the market may range - bound, and currently, the sentiment has weakened [4] - **Protein Meal**: The international soybean price is expected to range - bound. The domestic supply pressure is increasing, the basis is weak, and the futures follow the international market. Oil mills can sell short on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy the basis contract or fix the price on dips [4] - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price increase has slowed down, and the futures are weak. The wheat policy has affected the market sentiment. The import of grains is tightening, and the inventory is expected to decrease, but the continuous sharp rise is difficult to sustain [4][6] - **Pigs**: The current inventory weight is high, and the short - term price is under pressure. The supply will increase in the third quarter, and the price is in a downward cycle. The near - term contracts are weak, and the far - term contracts are strong [2][6] - **Natural Rubber**: The rebound has ended, and the price has dropped. The macro - sentiment support has weakened, and the tariff policy may have a negative impact. The supply and demand fundamentals are weak, and the downward trend may continue [7][8] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price first fell and then rose, remaining weak. The BR fundamentals are neutral, and the butadiene demand is weak, but there may be short - term support [8][9] - **Cotton**: The new - crop production is expected to increase. The inventory is low, which may support the near - term contracts. The long - term price is under pressure due to the expected increase in production [9] - **Sugar**: The new season is expected to have a loose supply, and the price has a downward drive. The current price is oscillating weakly [10] - **Pulp**: The futures price is falling, and it is more likely to break below the platform. The supply and demand are weak, and the basis of other softwood pulps may continue to decline [10] - **Logs**: The spot price has loosened, and the futures are weak. The supply is increasing in the short term, and the demand is seasonally weak. The inventory removal has pressure [11][13] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists various agricultural products for data monitoring, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [15][34][47][63][72][105][117][132]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's weekly export sales report is expected to show that US soybean export sales from June 1 - 5, 2025, will net increase by 10 - 70 tons, with 10 - 50 tons from the 2024 - 25 season and 0 - 20 tons from the 2025 - 26 season. US bean meal and soybean oil export sales are also expected to increase within certain ranges [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from June 1 - 10, 2025, increased by 3.53% month - on - month, with a 1.9% increase in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.3% increase in oil extraction rate [1][2]. - CIMB predicts that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in June 2025 will increase by 1% month - on - month to 2 million tons, while exports will increase by 8% to 1.5 million tons [3]. - CIMB expects the average price of crude palm oil in 2025 to be 4,200 Malaysian ringgit per ton [4]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 USDA Report Forecast - For US soybean export sales as of June 5, 2025, 2024 - 25 season: net increase of 10 - 50 tons; 2025 - 26 season: net increase of 0 - 20 tons. Total net increase: 10 - 70 tons. - For US bean meal export sales, 2024 - 25 season: net increase of 15 - 40 tons; 2025 - 26 season: net increase of 0 - 5 tons. Total net increase: 15 - 45 tons. - For US soybean oil export sales, 2024 - 25 season: net increase of 0 - 2.2 tons; 2025 - 26 season: net increase of 0 - 1 tons. Total net increase: 0 - 3.2 tons [1] 3.2 Malaysia Palm Oil Data - Production from June 1 - 10, 2025: month - on - month increase of 3.53%, fresh fruit bunch yield increase of 1.9%, oil extraction rate increase of 0.3% [1][2] - June 2025 inventory forecast: increase of 1% month - on - month to 2 million tons; export forecast: increase of 8% to 1.5 million tons [3] 3.3 Price and Policy Information - CIMB expects the 2025 average price of crude palm oil to be 4,200 Malaysian ringgit per ton [4] - India halved the basic import tax on crude edible oils to 10% from May 30, 2025, effectively reducing the total import tax to 16.5% [3] - Indonesia raised the export tax on crude palm oil to 10% starting from May 17, 2025 [4] 3.4 Spot Price - Spot prices of various products (including bean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu) from June 5 to June 11, 2025, are presented in a table [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a strong and volatile trend. The improvement of Sino - US relations boosts the export prospects of US soybeans, providing overall support for US soybean futures prices. Domestically, the recent significant increase in the operation rate of domestic oil mills is expected to accelerate the inventory accumulation of soybean meal. Affected by the recent strength of US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [2] - Oils: Night trading of soybean and palm oil showed a weak and volatile trend, while rapeseed oil closed higher. The Sino - US easing signal boosts the performance of soybean oil. The domestic soybean - related supply is gradually recovering with the increase in soybean arrivals, and soybean oil is expected to gradually accumulate inventory in the later period. The May Malaysian palm oil supply - demand data has a neutral impact on the market, and oils are expected to maintain a volatile trend [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 7694, 7970, 9149, 3047, 2557, and 8844 respectively, with price changes of - 64, - 146, - 39, 16, 11, and 26, and price change rates of - 0.82%, - 1.80%, - 3.15%, 0.53%, 0.43%, and 0.29% respectively [1] - Spreads and Ratios: There were changes in spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, etc. For example, the current value of Y9 - 1 was 50, and the previous value was 60 [1] International Futures Market - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 3876 (ringgit/ton), 1050 (cents/bushel), 48 (cents/pound), and 294 (dollars/ton) respectively, with price changes of - 44, - 8, 0, - 2, and price change rates of - 1.12%, - 0.76%, 0.57%, - 0.54% respectively [1] Domestic Spot Market - Prices: The current spot prices of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, etc. had different price change rates. For example, the price change rate of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was - 1.00% [1] - Basis: The current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, etc. were 266, 480 respectively [1] - Spreads: The current spot spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, etc. had changes compared with the previous values [1] Import and Crushing Profit - The current values of import and crushing profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. were - 648, - 121, etc., showing changes compared with the previous values [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, etc. were 17,652, 340, 0 respectively, with some changes compared with the previous values [1] Industry Information - As of the week ending June 4, Argentine farmers sold 175.79 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/2025 season, with cumulative sales reaching 1963.45 million tons. Local oil mills purchased 128.1 million tons, and the export industry purchased 47.69 million tons [2] - From June 1 - 10, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.71%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.1%, and the output decreased by 17.24% [2] - As of June 8, the US soybean sowing was 90% complete, with a good - to - excellent rate of 68% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Malaysian palm oil market is experiencing a bearish trend due to increased inventory and weak crude oil prices, leading to a decline in palm oil futures prices [1][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In May, Malaysia's palm oil production reached 1.7716 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.05%, exceeding market expectations [3]. - Exports of palm oil in May rose to 1.3872 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 25.62%, driven by increased demand from India [3]. - Palm oil inventory at the end of May increased to 1.9902 million tons, a month-on-month rise of 6.65%, marking the highest level since September 2024 [3]. Market Dynamics - India's reduction of the basic import tariff on crude vegetable oils from 20% to 10% has stimulated palm oil import demand, positively impacting Malaysian exports [4]. - The Malaysian palm oil market is expected to maintain strong export performance in June, supported by ongoing production increases and favorable demand conditions [4]. - The palm oil production cycle is currently in an upward trend, with expectations of a peak in production during the third quarter [4]. Domestic Market Conditions - In the domestic market, palm oil imports have increased due to a significant narrowing of import profit margins, with commercial inventory rising to 400,000 tons as of June 11 [5]. - Despite increased demand from India, the supply pressure from the production cycle is expected to keep palm oil prices under pressure [5]. - The market is anticipated to experience fluctuations, influenced by the balance between Indian purchasing support and production pressures [5].