| | | 日内价格上行。焦化有提涨预期，利润微薄，焦化日产较年内高位持续回落。焦炭整体库存持续下降，贸易商采购意愿稍有改 善，钢厂采购也略有改善。整体来看，碳元素供应端仍较充裕，下游铁水淡季仍保持较高水平，"反内卷"目前对焦炭行业影 响有限。焦炭盘面维持升水，在库存压力下，焦炭盘面上方压力较大。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年07月09日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | な女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | な女女 | | | 證硅 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gt ...

Group 1: Tariff Announcements - The Trump administration plans to impose a new 50% tariff on all copper imports to the U.S., with no specific effective date announced [1][3] - The U.S. government is also considering new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and other specific industries, with potential tariffs on foreign-made drugs reaching up to 200% [5][8] - The announcement of these tariffs is expected to be made on the morning of the 9th, with additional measures related to at least seven countries to be revealed later that day [1][9] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the copper tariff, New York copper futures surged by 13%, reaching $5.69 per pound, marking the largest increase since 1969 [3] - Analysts predict that the copper market will experience a significant turning point in 2025 due to these tariff changes [3] Group 3: Industry Impacts - Chile is the largest supplier of refined copper to the U.S., accounting for approximately 70% of imports, and high tariffs could severely impact its trade conditions [4] - The Canadian Mining Association warns that the U.S. lacks sufficient copper refining capacity and that high tariffs could harm U.S. manufacturing [4] Group 4: Investigations and Legal Framework - The U.S. initiated a Section 232 investigation into copper imports, citing national security concerns, which could extend to various forms of copper products [5][6] - The investigation aims to assess the impact of copper imports on national security, highlighting the U.S.'s increasing dependence on foreign sources for copper [5][6] Group 5: Future Trade Relations - The Trump administration is expected to send 15 to 20 letters to trade partners regarding tariff measures, with a focus on maintaining communication with the EU [10] - The EU is reportedly working closely with the Trump administration to reach a temporary trade agreement while discussions on tariffs continue [10]

智通财经7月9日电，印度矿业部长称将讨论美国进口铜关税的影响。 ...

印度矿业部长：将讨论美国关税对铜的影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union is developing an unprecedented "emergency strategic reserve" plan to stockpile essential materials, including rare earth minerals and critical components, in response to geopolitical uncertainties and potential threats [1][3][5]. Group 1: Strategic Reserve Plan - The new emergency reserve plan includes not only traditional supplies like energy, food, and medicine but also rare earth minerals, permanent magnets, and specialized cable maintenance modules [3][5]. - The plan reflects the EU's concern that disruptions to network, energy, and IoT infrastructure could severely impact its core operations [3][9]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The urgency of this initiative is driven by recent threats, such as the suspected sabotage of the Baltic Sea gas pipeline and cyberattacks on communication networks across Europe [5][11]. - The EU is preparing for potential military attacks on member states, as indicated by warnings from officials about the likelihood of significant military confrontations in the coming years [5][11]. Group 3: Dependency on Imports - Europe relies heavily on imports for critical materials, with over 80% of rare earth minerals sourced from China, making it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions [7][15]. - The demand for permanent magnets is surging due to the green economy transition, particularly in wind and solar energy, necessitating stockpiling to avoid supply shortages [7][9]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Cybersecurity - The EU aims to enhance its resilience by stockpiling repair modules for communication and energy infrastructure to ensure rapid recovery from outages [9][11]. - There is a recognized lack of understanding regarding the types and quantities of materials needed to address new risks, indicating a reactive rather than proactive approach to security [11][13]. Group 5: Market Implications - The EU's strategy may create opportunities for companies that can navigate the complexities of the rare earth market, especially as the bloc seeks to reduce dependency on Chinese supplies [15][17]. - The potential for increased demand and stockpiling could lead to fluctuations in international raw material prices, raising questions about market stability [15][17].

白宫2月份表示，美国拥有充足的铜储量，但"我们的冶炼和精炼产能明显落后于全球竞争对手"。政府的目标是确保美国维 持该金属的弹性供应链。前总统拜登也曾类似地试图促进国内采矿生产和金属加工。 据摩根士丹利报告，第232条调查的结论比预期来得更早，本来有270天的期限可以延续到11月底。关税的具体实施细节仍 不明确，包括是否适用于所有铜产品，以及是否会有豁免条款。 受该消息影响，铜期货合约单日暴涨13%创纪录新高，创下自1968年有记录以来的最大单日涨幅。 美国总统特朗普周二宣布将对铜进口征收50%关税，这一税率远超市场预期，引发美国铜期货价格暴涨13%至历史新高。 这一关税水平约为市场预期的两倍，远超此前市场普遍预期的25%左右水平，是继铝和钢材关税之后，美国对关键工业原 材料征收的又一轮进口税，威胁为美国经济的关键投入品增加新成本。美国商务部长Howard Lutnick表示，新关税将在8月 1日或更早生效。 铜价上涨引发市场对通胀压力和需求破坏的担忧。美国作为全球主要铜进口国，去年净进口量占其需求的53%，主要来源 为智利和加拿大。 据摩根士丹利分析，关税实施将对COMEX铜价形成利好，但可能对伦敦金属交易所 ...

Group 1 - US stock market shows mixed performance with small-cap stocks outperforming, while the Dow Jones lagged behind [2][8] - Nvidia reached a new high with a market capitalization approaching $4 trillion [2][8] - Freeport-McMoRan, a copper mining company, saw its stock price surge over 8.8% after Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports [2][14] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index closed down 4.46 points, a decrease of 0.07% [3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 165.60 points, a decline of 0.37% [4] - The Nasdaq Composite index increased by 5.95 points, a rise of 0.03% [5] Group 3 - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.81% [10] - AMD shares increased by 2.24% [11] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.71%, outperforming the major US indices for two consecutive days [12] Group 4 - Energy sector ETF increased by 2.69%, while financial sector ETF decreased by 0.89% [7] - Solar stocks, including SunRun, fell over 11% due to tightening clean energy tax regulations proposed by Trump [15]

Group 1 - Australian Prime Minister Albanese will visit China from July 12 to 18, aiming to strengthen relations with Australia’s largest trading partner [1][2] - The visit will focus on expanding economic relations, discussing global and regional issues, and bilateral cooperation in trade and tourism [2][4] - A business delegation of 14 members from various sectors, including banking, resources, and education, will accompany Albanese [4] Group 2 - Albanese's visit is significant as it marks the second visit to China since taking office, indicating a normalization of relations after years of tension [4][5] - The visit coincides with China's proposal to reassess the ten-year-old free trade agreement, aiming to enhance cooperation in agriculture, mining, and explore new technology sectors [5] - China expresses willingness to strengthen cooperation in traditional sectors and expand into emerging fields such as AI, healthcare, green energy, and digital economy [5]

智利铜矿危机，机构称目前智利25%的铜产量面临中断的风险，铜市场的未来走向何方？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The newly revised Mineral Resources Law, effective from July 1, aims to standardize mineral resource management and promote green, high-quality development in the mining industry [1] Group 1: Legislative Changes - The revision of the Mineral Resources Law is the first major overhaul in 29 years, marking a significant milestone in the legal framework for natural resources [2] - The new law addresses the increasing demand for strategic mineral resources while highlighting systemic shortcomings in geological survey work, such as funding shortages and slow technological updates [2] - The law establishes a national obligation for basic geological surveys, providing a legal foundation to overcome exploration bottlenecks and ensure mineral resource security [2] Group 2: Environmental Considerations - The new law incorporates green development principles, establishing a dedicated chapter on "mining area ecological restoration" to support ecological civilization construction throughout mineral resource management [3] Group 3: Implementation Strategies - The Ministry of Natural Resources has issued a comprehensive plan for implementing the new law and is expediting the drafting of implementation regulations, which are currently under review by the Ministry of Justice [4] - A thorough review of existing regulations related to mineral resource management is underway, with recommendations for necessary amendments or abolitions [4] - The Ministry is also developing supporting documents to enhance the ecological restoration of mining areas, focusing on management of restoration plans and supervision [4][5] Group 4: Ecological Restoration Guidelines - The ecological restoration guidelines emphasize responsibilities for mining rights holders to implement restoration concurrently with mining activities, shifting from reactive to proactive management [5] - The guidelines aim to extend ecological restoration from end-of-pipe treatment to source protection, detailing objectives and measures for different stages of mineral resource extraction [5]