Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 15%-20% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth due to a high base in the first half of 2024, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 15%-20% for 1H25, with the konjac product category maintaining high growth [1] - Adjustments in SKU displays for seasoning noodle products may lead to growth pressure in Q2 [1] - Increased promotional efforts in the channel for 1H25 may offset revenue growth, impacting overall revenue growth rate [1] Group 2: Margin and Cost Management - The company expects an improvement in gross margin compared to 2H24, with management expense ratio likely to narrow year-on-year [1] - The company plans to counteract rising konjac raw material costs through supply chain efficiency and optimization of production personnel [1] - Overall, the pressure on net profit margin is expected to be manageable, with a projected low double-digit year-on-year profit growth for 1H25 [1] Group 3: Organizational Structure and Management Changes - The company has a complete organizational structure, and recent executive changes are expected to have a controllable impact on operations [2] - The new CFO, Yufeng, is expected to maintain stability following the resignation of the previous CFO, Peng Hongzhi [2] Group 4: Market Expansion and New Products - The company anticipates new growth from Sam's Club and overseas channels in the second half of the year [2] - New product launches, including spicy strips and konjac products, are expected to contribute to revenue growth [2] - The company expects to maintain a growth rate in the second half of the year similar to that of 1H25, with significant profit improvement due to a low base in 2H24 [2] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with a target price of HKD 17.5 [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 20.2/16.4 for 2025/2026, with a target price reflecting approximately 28/23 times P/E for the same years, indicating a potential upside of about 38.7% from the current price [2]

Group 1: Company Developments - Meiyijia has opened its 40,000th store in Nanning, Guangxi, marking a significant milestone in its national expansion, with coverage in 22 provinces and over 240 cities, serving more than 250 million customers monthly [6] - ALDI has expanded its presence in China, reaching a total of 76 stores nationwide, with new openings in Wuxi and Suzhou [14] - JD.com has launched a new business called "JD Fresh Discount Store," focusing on online discounts for fresh products, although it is still in the testing phase with limited product availability [8] Group 2: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - Taobao Flash Sale reported a significant increase in night-time orders, with a more than 100% month-on-month growth in 127 cities since July, particularly in central and western regions [10] - The Chinese express delivery industry continues to lead globally, with an average of over 500 million packages collected daily, reflecting efficient resource allocation [15] - The retail sales of consumer goods in China are expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year, maintaining the country's position as the second-largest consumer market globally [22] Group 3: Regulatory and Industry Standards - The State Administration for Market Regulation has held discussions with major food delivery platforms, emphasizing compliance with e-commerce laws and promoting fair competition [9] - The first industry standard for fresh tea beverages has been officially released, which will take effect in January 2026, setting quality requirements for ingredients and packaging [14] - A new digital tool called "Food Safety Nail" has been launched by Ele.me to enhance food safety monitoring across the supply chain [18]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月21日 金融工程季度报告 加仓通信减仓食品饮料，创业板配置权重明显提升——公募基金 2025 年二季报分析 基金仓位监控 普通股票型基金仓位中位数为 91.27%，偏股混合型基金仓位中位数为 90.08%，与上一季度相比略有提升，自 2020 年以来持续围绕在 90%仓位 震荡。普通股票型基金仓位处在历史 88.71%分位点，偏股混合型基金仓位 处在历史 93.55%分位点。 普通股票型和偏股混合型基金港股仓位均值分别为 12.91%和 16.85%，均较 上一季度进一步提升。普通股票型配置港股基金数量为 233 只，偏股混合型 配置港股基金数量为 1601 只，普通股票型以及偏股混合型基金中配置港股 的基金数量占比为 58.35%。 基金持股集中度监控 基金重仓股占权益配置比重为 52.23%，上一期为 53.21%，略有降低；另一 方面，基金持股数量在 2025 年二季度相较于上一季度有所增加，基金经理 总体持股数量为 2436 只，这意味着，基金经理持仓的股票差异化有所提升。 板块配置监控 2025 年二季报中披露的主板配置权重为 52.44%、创业板配置权重为 15. ...

上游原料整体仓位回升。一级行业 25Q2 仓位分别为有色金属 4.65%(0.15pct)， 基础化工 2.95%(0pct)，建筑材料 0.6%(-0.03pct)，石油石化 0.38%(-0.02pct)， 煤炭 0.37%(-0.1pct)，钢铁 0.34%(-0.27pct)。 中游制造方面，一级行业 25Q2 仓位分别为通信 5.33%(2.39pct)，国防军工 4.17%(0.99pct)，电子 18.67%(-0.07pct)，机械设备 3.79%(-0.7pct)，电力设备 9.89%(-1.03pct)。 策略报告 | 投资策略专题 两个加仓方向：景气与大金融 证券研究报告 主动偏股基金 25Q2 重仓股分析 核心结论：公募基金 25Q2 前五大主动加仓行业（去除被动涨跌部分）为通 信、医药生物、非银、银行和军工。通信和医药的加仓对应的是海外算力景 气和创新药景气行情。非银/银行的加仓则值得关注，这两个大金融行业基 金均低配，主动加仓行为或显示逻辑出现变化。我们认为，非银的加仓或与 稳定币/上证指数突破相关，银行的加仓则与银行长期估值修复、公募改革 方案相关。主动减仓方向主要是食品饮料和汽 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Macro Environment**: The focus is shifting from actual growth to nominal growth, with an emphasis on "anti-involution" policies. Government investment is expected to effectively drive social investment, with significant projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project commencing, involving a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan [3][18]. - **Non-Banking Sector**: Incremental capital is entering the market, with a strong recommendation for the non-banking sector, particularly brokerage firms and insurance companies, as they are expected to benefit from improved market conditions and regulatory support [6][7]. - **Electronics**: The penetration of DDR5 technology is accelerating, driven by the AI industry, with expectations for significant growth in AI PCB manufacturers due to rising demand for computing power [8]. - **Media**: The gaming industry remains optimistic despite recent adjustments, with opportunities in IP and advanced technology applications [9]. - **Food and Beverage**: The industry is entering a golden period for brand upgrades, particularly in the liquor sector, which is expected to recover from previous downturns [10]. - **Agriculture**: The price of yellow chickens may be nearing a bottom, while the pig farming sector is expected to stabilize under "anti-involution" policies [11]. - **Home Appliances**: The "trade-in" policy has significantly boosted domestic sales, with a reported 32% year-on-year increase in retail sales from January to June 2025 [12]. - **Textiles and Light Industry**: The textile manufacturing sector is recovering, with opportunities in high-performance materials and traditional clothing businesses [14]. - **Environmental Protection**: The exploration of RWA (Risk-Weighted Assets) in environmental assets is expected to enhance financing efficiency and optimize cash flow for companies in the sector [15]. - **New Energy**: Solid-state batteries are projected to achieve commercial application by 2027, with significant growth expected in the coming years [16][17]. - **Construction**: The construction sector is poised for growth with the launch of major projects and upcoming policies aimed at stabilizing the industry [19][21]. - **Coal**: Coal prices are on the rise due to favorable supply-demand dynamics, with expectations for continued price increases in the second half of the year [20]. - **Building Materials**: A growth plan for the building materials sector is anticipated, with the Yarlung Tsangpo River project expected to drive demand for related materials [21]. - **Metals**: The implementation of a new growth plan is expected to support metal prices, particularly in the aluminum and steel sectors [22]. - **Public Utilities**: New pricing policies in Gansu are expected to enhance profitability for power generation companies [23]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Strategies**: The report suggests a three-pronged investment strategy focusing on economic cycle assets, growth sectors, and stable value assets, with a recommendation to increase exposure to sectors benefiting from long-term improvements [4][6]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights the asymmetry between downside risks and upside potential in the current market environment, emphasizing the need for strategic asset allocation [4][5]. - **Sector-Specific Recommendations**: - Non-banking financials are recommended due to expected recovery in performance and valuation [6][7]. - The electronics sector is advised for investment due to the growth in AI-related technologies [8]. - The media sector is seen as a stable investment due to ongoing demand for gaming and IP products [9]. - The food and beverage sector is highlighted for its potential recovery and brand upgrades [10]. - The agriculture sector is recommended for its stabilization under new policies [11]. - Home appliances are expected to benefit from government policies and consumer demand [12]. Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Risk Factors**: The reports consistently mention various risk factors, including geopolitical tensions, regulatory changes, and economic uncertainties that could impact market performance across sectors [4][5][20][22]. - **Technological Advancements**: The rapid development of solid-state battery technology and its implications for the automotive and energy sectors are emphasized, indicating a significant shift in energy storage solutions [16][17]. - **Regulatory Environment**: The impact of government policies on various sectors, particularly in terms of investment and operational efficiency, is a recurring theme, suggesting that regulatory changes could significantly influence market dynamics [3][4][5][19][23].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is currently in a period of intensive mid-year earnings forecasts disclosure, with nearly 120 companies having released their forecasts as of July 18, resulting in a positive earnings forecast rate of 50.85% [1] Group 2: Companies with Significant Earnings Growth - Pop Mart expects its revenue to grow by no less than 200% and profit to increase by no less than 350% in the first half of the year, driven by enhanced brand recognition and diversified product offerings [3] - Huabao International anticipates a pre-tax profit of between 151.2 million to 177.2 million yuan, representing a growth of approximately 91.3% to 124.3% compared to the same period last year [3] - Guoquan expects a net profit of approximately 180 million to 210 million yuan, reflecting a growth of about 111% to 146% year-on-year, attributed to ongoing revenue growth and improved operational efficiency [4] - Zhou Hei Ya forecasts total revenue between 1.2 billion to 1.24 billion yuan, a slight decline of about 1.5% to 4.7% year-on-year, but expects profit to increase by 55.2% to 94.8% [4] - October Rice Field anticipates adjusted net profit of no less than 283 million yuan, a growth of at least 90% compared to the previous year, driven by innovation and deep operations in the home food category [5] - Andeli Juice expects a net profit of approximately 187 million to 214 million yuan, an increase of 40% to 60% year-on-year, due to increased customer orders and significant growth in concentrated juice sales [5] Group 3: Companies with Expected Earnings Decline - Conning Hospital projects a decline in net profit of approximately 25% to 35% compared to the same period last year, primarily due to reduced operating income from decreased average daily expenses per bed [7] - Xinyi Solar expects a net profit decline of 56% to 66% in the first half of 2025, attributed to a significant drop in average selling prices of solar glass products and an oversupply in the market [8] - Xinyi Glass anticipates a net profit decrease of 55% to 65%, driven by declining revenue and gross profit in the float glass business due to weak demand and market price pressures [8]

Group 1: Investment Activities - Xiangpiaopiao has entered the LP circle by investing 100 million RMB in the Changsha Quanzhong Venture Capital Partnership, which has a target total scale of 1 billion RMB, focusing on growth and mature enterprises as well as promising early-stage consumer companies [2] - Zhongke Chuangxing has completed the first closing of its new fund with 2.617 billion RMB, focusing on hard technology projects in fields such as artificial intelligence, with 70% of the funds allocated to early-stage projects [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to establish the second phase of the National SME Development Fund to attract more social capital for early, small, long-term, and hard technology investments [4] Group 2: Government Policies and Support - The Tianjin government has introduced measures to support high-quality development in venture capital, increasing the maximum government investment ratio from 50% to 80% and adjusting policy indicators to better utilize fiscal funds [5] Group 3: Company Developments in Robotics - Zhiyuan Robotics has received strategic investment from Charoen Pokphand Group, marking a new phase in its global expansion in the robotics sector [7] - Qianxun Intelligent has completed nearly 600 million RMB in Pre-A+ financing, led by JD.com, with participation from several notable institutions [8] - JD.com has strategically invested in LimX Dynamics, enhancing collaboration in retail, logistics, and service sectors [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is currently experiencing a concentrated period of mid-term earnings forecasts, with a notable number of companies expecting significant earnings growth [1]. Group 1: Positive Earnings Forecasts - Nearly 120 Hong Kong-listed companies have released earnings forecasts, with 37 companies expecting earnings growth, 14 companies turning losses into profits, and 9 companies anticipating slight increases. The overall positive earnings forecast rate stands at 50.85% [1]. - Pop Mart expects its revenue to grow by no less than 200% and profits to increase by no less than 350% compared to the same period last year, driven by enhanced brand recognition and diversified product offerings [3]. - Huabao International anticipates a pre-tax profit of between 151.2 million to 177.2 million yuan, representing a growth of approximately 91.3% to 124.3% year-on-year, primarily due to the absence of significant impairment losses this period [3]. - Guoquan expects a net profit of approximately 180 million to 210 million yuan, reflecting a growth of about 111% to 146% year-on-year, attributed to ongoing revenue growth and improved operational efficiency [4]. - Zhou Hei Ya forecasts total revenue between 1.2 billion to 1.24 billion yuan, a slight decline of 1.5% to 4.7% year-on-year, but expects profit growth of 55.2% to 94.8% due to optimized store structure and improved sales efficiency [4]. - October Rice Field anticipates adjusted net profit of no less than 283 million yuan, a growth of at least 90% year-on-year, driven by continuous innovation in home food categories and enhanced cooperation with quality sales channels [5]. - Andeli Juice expects a net profit of approximately 187 million to 214 million yuan, an increase of 40% to 60% year-on-year, mainly due to increased customer orders and significant growth in concentrated juice sales [5]. Group 2: Negative Earnings Forecasts - Some companies, such as Conning Hospital, expect a decline in mid-term earnings, with a projected drop in net profit of about 25% to 35% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced operating income from decreased average daily expenses per bed [7]. - Conning Hospital's previous report indicated a total revenue of 1.654 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year growth of 3.63%, but a net profit decline of 23.7% [8]. - Xinyi Solar anticipates a net profit decrease of 56% to 66% for the first half of 2025, attributed to a significant drop in average selling prices of solar glass products amid oversupply [8]. - Xinyi Glass expects a net profit decline of 55% to 65% for the same period, due to continuous revenue and gross profit declines in the float glass business, influenced by reduced demand and market price pressures [8].

Macro Dynamics - The State Administration for Market Regulation has released the first national standard for campus meal service management, aimed at enhancing food safety regulations in schools, covering aspects from recipe management to emergency handling [1] - The People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies have issued implementation details for cross-border asset management pilot projects in Hainan Free Trade Port, facilitating foreign investment in local financial products [2] - In June, China's total electricity consumption reached 867 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with significant growth in residential electricity usage [3] - China's express delivery volume has maintained its position as the world's largest for 11 consecutive years, with over 500 million packages collected daily [4] - The National Space Administration has implemented a lifelong accountability system for quality responsibilities in commercial space projects to enhance oversight [5] Financial Institutions - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors has initiated a self-regulatory investigation into Guangfa Bank for potential price manipulation in its bond issuance process [6] Market Data - On July 21, A-shares saw collective gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.72% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.86%, with a total market turnover of approximately 1.699 trillion yuan [8] - The Hong Kong stock market closed with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.68%, led by gains in construction and cement stocks [9] Company Dynamics - Good Products has reported a court case involving a share transfer dispute with a claim amount of 996 million yuan, which may affect the control transfer of its major shareholder [10] - JD.com has announced its entry into the field of embodied intelligence, focusing on technological innovation and applications in supply chain scenarios [11] - Jinghe Integrated is expecting a net profit increase of 39% to 109% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, driven by industry recovery and increased product sales [12]

证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 21 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 王宇璇 SAC：S1350525050003 wangyuxuan@huayuanstock.com HPP 设备和 HPP 果汁市场发展前景向好，关注北交所相关标的 ——北交所消费服务产业跟踪第二十三期（20250720） 投资要点： 风险提示：宏观经济环境变动风险、市场竞争风险、资料统计误差风险。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 2025 年亚太地区 HPP 设备规模预计年增长率达 25%，中国有望开启国产替代。HPP（超高 压非热灭菌技术）是一项通过物理高压而非高温进行杀菌的前沿技术，能较大限度保留食品 的营养与风味。HPP 技术可应用于多个领域，如果汁饮料、肉制品、水产品、乳制品等。国 内 HPP 设备设计与生产的成熟程度以及厂家运用设备进行冷杀菌的成熟程度均与国外存在一 定差距。根据利通科技官网，2025 年亚太地区 HPP 设备规模预计约为 18 亿美元，年增长 ...