Group 1 - The coal mining sector experienced a decline of 5.3% on February 2, with Dayou Energy leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] - Major coal mining stocks showed varied performance, with Jiang Aluminum Equipment rising by 2.20% to close at 10.24, while Dayou Energy fell by 10.04% to close at 6.63 [2] Group 2 - The coal mining sector saw a net outflow of 610 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 26.23 million yuan [2] - The stock of Electric Power Investment Energy had a net inflow of 135 million yuan from main funds, but a net outflow of 25.44 million yuan from retail investors [3] - China Shenhua had a net inflow of 68.98 million yuan from main funds, but a net outflow of 79.04 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Group 1: Automotive Industry - The ultra-luxury market has significant potential for domestic alternatives, with the Jianghuai brand expected to improve profitability through increased sales of the Zun Jie model [4][5] - The ultra-luxury car market has historically sold between 150,000 to 200,000 units annually, with domestic brands currently holding a low market share, indicating substantial future growth opportunities [4] - Jianghuai's Q3 2025 financial report shows a notable improvement in revenue and gross margin, with expectations for continued growth as the Zun Jie model begins larger-scale deliveries [5][6] Group 2: Paper Industry - The price of white cardboard is set to increase by 200 RMB per ton starting March 1, 2026, following a previous increase in January, which is expected to positively impact profitability for leading companies in the sector [7][8] - The average price of white cardboard rose by 291.05 RMB per ton from August 2025 to December 2025, indicating a recovery trend in the industry [8] - The company reported a revenue of 14.45 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.46%, and a production increase of 12.39% in the same period [9] Group 3: Organic Silicon Industry - The demand for organic silicon is steadily increasing, particularly in sectors such as electronics, construction, and renewable energy, with projected consumption growth rates of 8.0% to 8.8% from 2025 to 2027 [11][12] - The expansion of organic silicon supply is slowing, with new capacity expected to be limited in the coming years, which may help stabilize prices [12] - The "anti-involution" consensus among industry leaders is expected to positively influence pricing and market conditions, aiding in the recovery of the industry's profitability [12][13] Group 4: Food Processing Industry - The company anticipates a core operating profit growth of 44.8% to 51.2% for 2025, with projected revenues of approximately 7.75 to 7.85 billion RMB, reflecting a significant increase from the previous year [17][18] - The expansion of store numbers and market penetration in rural areas is driving revenue growth, with a total of 11,566 stores expected by the end of 2025 [19] - The company is focusing on building a membership system and enhancing online sales channels, which are expected to strengthen its market position [19] Group 5: Military Electronics Industry - The company forecasts a net profit of 338 to 388 million RMB for 2025, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses, driven by demand for AI and cloud computing technologies [20][22] - The company is actively collaborating with major tech firms and expanding its product offerings in AI and data center infrastructure, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [23][24] - The company plans to invest in expanding its production capacity in key technology areas, including AI and defense applications, to capitalize on market opportunities [24][25] Group 6: AI and Software Development Industry - The company expects a net profit of 785 to 950 million RMB for 2025, with a growth rate of 40% to 70%, driven by advancements in AI models and increased sales [26][27] - The launch of the new AI model "Xunfei Starfire X1.5" is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the AI market, with significant project wins reported [28][30] - The company is expanding its B2B AI applications and has achieved notable sales success in consumer AI hardware, indicating strong market demand [30][31] Group 7: Biopharmaceutical Industry - The ADC drug market is experiencing rapid growth, with global sales expected to reach 66.2 billion USD by 2030, driven by increased R&D efforts from domestic companies [32][34] - Domestic companies are leveraging existing technologies to optimize ADC drugs, with several products showing potential to become best-in-class [33][34] - The increasing number of ADC drug pipelines in China is expected to lead to a significant number of new drug approvals in the coming years, enhancing market competitiveness [35] Group 8: Automotive Components Industry - The domestic electric vehicle market is projected to grow by 28.2% in 2025, with the company focusing on high-voltage power supply solutions for electric vehicles [37][38] - The company has established partnerships with major automotive manufacturers and is expanding its international client base, which is expected to enhance profitability [38][39] - The company anticipates a net profit of 210 to 250 million RMB for 2025, driven by increased demand in the electric vehicle sector and successful capacity expansion [39][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [9] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 130.5 billion, 132.3 billion, and 137.1 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of -6%, 1%, and 4% respectively [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 10.1 billion, 10.4 billion, and 11.3 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of -30%, 3%, and 9% respectively [7] - The company plans to release the value of marginal assets and enhance operational stability through the transfer of its wholly-owned subsidiary, Xintai Coal, which has a significant increase in assessed net asset value [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total share capital of 10,037.48 million shares and a market price of 14.64 yuan, leading to a market capitalization of approximately 146.95 billion yuan [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.44, 1.01, 1.04, and 1.13 yuan for the years 2024 to 2027 [7] Asset Management - The company is in the process of transferring the 100% equity of its subsidiary, Xintai Coal, with a base price of 670 million yuan, and the highest bid reaching 3.05 billion yuan [7] - The transaction is expected to release hidden asset value and positively contribute to the company's net profit in 2026 [6][7] Market Position - The company is focusing on optimizing its asset structure by concentrating on core mining areas, which is anticipated to improve overall asset quality and capital allocation efficiency [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Lu'an Environmental Energy experienced a decline of 5.06% on February 2, with a stock price of 12.94 CNY per share and a total market capitalization of 38.709 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co., Ltd. is located in Xiangyuan County, Changzhi City, Shanxi Province, established on July 19, 2001, and listed on September 22, 2006. The company's main business includes raw coal mining, coal washing, and coke smelting, with the primary coal types being lean coal, poor lean coal, and poor coal. The revenue composition is as follows: coal accounts for 92.66%, coke for 5.53%, and others for 1.81% [1] Shareholder Information - E Fund's Hu Shen 300 ETF (510310) entered the top ten circulating shareholders of Lu'an Environmental Energy in the third quarter, holding 14.726 million shares, which is 0.49% of the circulating shares. The estimated floating loss today is approximately 10.1609 million CNY [2] - E Fund's Zhong Zheng Hong Li ETF (515180) increased its holdings by 5.3101 million shares in the fourth quarter, holding a total of 14.6449 million shares, representing 1.46% of the fund's net value. The estimated floating loss today is around 10.105 million CNY [4] Fund Manager Performance - The fund manager of E Fund's Hu Shen 300 ETF, Yu Haiyan, has a tenure of 15 years and 59 days, with a total asset scale of 433.297 billion CNY. The best fund return during the tenure is 174.06%, while the worst is -78.9% [3] - The other fund manager, Pang Yaping, has a tenure of 7 years and 109 days, with a total asset scale of 368.472 billion CNY. The best fund return during the tenure is 114.63%, while the worst is -37.67% [3] - The fund manager of E Fund's Zhong Zheng Hong Li ETF, Lin Weibin, has a tenure of 12 years and 337 days, with a total asset scale of 119.408 billion CNY. The best fund return during the tenure is 84.18%, while the worst is -22.14% [5] - The other fund manager, Song Zhaoxian, has a tenure of 5 years and 152 days, with a total asset scale of 59.817 billion CNY. The best fund return during the tenure is 68.42%, while the worst is -27.57% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several coal companies, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Electricity, and Xinji Energy, while recommending "Hold" for Pingmei Shenma [8][9]. Core Insights - The coal market is expected to focus on overseas opportunities rather than domestic ones, with potential "black swan" events in the international market that could significantly impact coal prices [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with overseas operations, specifically China Qinfa (Indonesia), Power Development (South Africa), and Yancoal Australia (Australia) [1]. - The report highlights that the coal price is expected to remain volatile, driven by pre-holiday stockpiling and tightening supply as the Chinese New Year approaches [10][34]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index rose to 3892.74 points, an increase of 3.98%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.90 percentage points [69]. - China Qinfa's market capitalization reached a historical high of 10.6 billion HKD, reflecting strong market sentiment [1]. Coal Price Trends - As of January 30, 2026, the price of thermal coal at North Port was 695 CNY/ton, up by 4 CNY/ton week-on-week [34]. - The report notes that coal prices are expected to stabilize as supply tightens and demand fluctuates due to the upcoming holiday [34]. Focus on Key Companies - The report recommends focusing on companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Xinji Energy, which are expected to perform well due to their strong fundamentals [9]. - Companies like China Qinfa, which are expanding overseas, are highlighted as having significant growth potential [1][9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that coal supply is tightening as some mines halt production for the holiday, while demand is supported by pre-holiday stockpiling [10][34]. - The report also mentions that the inventory levels at major ports are decreasing, which could support price stability [14]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the coal industry will continue to play a crucial role in China's energy landscape, with a focus on high-quality development amid structural reforms [34]. - Long-term prospects for the coal sector remain positive, with expectations of increased concentration and stability in supply-demand dynamics [34].

行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2026 年 02 月 01 日 节前产地供给偏紧，补库需求支撑 下，预计煤价仍将上涨 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2026.1.24-2026.1.30） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至 1 月 30 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 527、609、692 元/吨，环比上涨 13、10、7 元/吨。供给 端，据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 159.17 万吨，环比上周增加 0.1 万吨，增幅 0.04%，同比增加 ...

Company Announcements - Fenglong Co., Ltd. received a commitment from UBTECH not to inject assets into the company within 36 months after the acquisition, and the stock will resume trading on February 2 after the completion of a trading suspension investigation [2] - Jerry Holdings signed a sales contract for gas turbine generator sets with a total amount of 1.82 billion USD (approximately 12.65 billion RMB) for a data center application, marking the fourth such contract with a U.S. client since November 2025 [3] - Aoxin plans to invest 1.82 billion RMB in a high-end printed circuit board project, which aims to enhance product competitiveness and meet the growing demand in various sectors [3] Shareholder Changes - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company intends to transfer 100% equity of its wholly-owned subsidiary Xintai Coal [4] - GoerTek increased its share repurchase fund from a minimum of 5 billion RMB to a minimum of 10 billion RMB, with a maximum of 15 billion RMB [4][5] Business Performance - China Mobile and China Telecom will be affected by the adjustment of the VAT tax category for telecom services, which will impact their revenue and profits [3][5] - Leshan Electric Power reported a year-on-year net profit growth of 3.68% for 2025 [5] Stock Price Movements - Jiamei Packaging's stock price surged by 408.11% from December 17, 2025, to January 23, 2026, leading to a trading suspension for investigation, with the stock resuming trading on February 2 [5] - Hunan Gold's stock experienced significant trading fluctuations, with uncertainty regarding the future market price of its gold products [7] - Hongbaoli's epoxy propylene comprehensive technology transformation project has entered the pre-production preparation stage, although there is uncertainty regarding the timeline for producing qualified products [8] Other News - Fushi Holdings' actual controller and chairman Chen Yongliang has been detained [9] - ST United received a notice from the Shanghai Stock Exchange to suspend the review of its application due to the need to update financial documents [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [10][11] - The coal supply is expected to tighten due to domestic supply constraints and Indonesia's reduction in coal production targets, which will support a stable recovery in coal prices throughout the year [10][11] - The investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [10][11] - High-quality coal companies are characterized by high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-15%, and dividend yields exceeding 5% [10][11] - The coal sector is considered undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, and public funds currently underweight in coal holdings [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Prices - As of January 31, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 691 CNY/ton, up 5 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][29] - The international thermal coal offshore price for Newcastle NEWC5500 is 74.5 USD/ton, up 0.7 USD/ton week-on-week [3][29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remains stable at 1780 CNY/ton [31] 2. Coal Supply and Demand - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 88.3%, down 1.3 percentage points week-on-week [10][49] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 8.30 thousand tons/day (-1.8%) [50] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces decreased by 7.70 thousand tons/day (-3.3%) [50] 3. Industry Performance - The coal sector saw a 3.98% increase this week, outperforming the broader market [13][16] - The thermal coal segment rose by 4.07%, while the coking coal segment increased by 3.92% [16] 4. Future Outlook - The coal supply bottleneck is expected to persist, necessitating new high-quality capacity planning to meet medium to long-term energy demands [11] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, with a favorable long-term outlook due to macroeconomic improvements and regulatory changes [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in coal auction listings in Mongolia for 2025, with a total of 40.8832 million tons listed, up by 14.272 million tons. However, the transaction volume is slightly lower than in 2024, at 21.792 million tons, down by 0.576 million tons [2] - The report emphasizes the performance of specific companies, recommending investments in China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry. It also highlights companies focusing on smart mining, such as Keda Control, and those undergoing turnaround, like China Qinfa [3][7] - The report notes that the core port for coal transactions remains Ganqimaodu, contributing 83% of the total transaction volume [2] Summary by Sections Energy Prices Overview - As of January 30, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $70.69 per barrel, up by $4.81 (7.3%) from the previous week. WTI crude oil futures settled at $65.21 per barrel, up by $4.14 (6.78%) [1] - Natural gas prices showed mixed trends, with Northeast Asia LNG spot prices at $11.68 per million British thermal units, down by $0.13 (-1.11%). The Dutch TTF gas futures settled at €40.65 per megawatt-hour, up by €1.28 (3.24%) [1] - Coal prices increased, with European ARA port coal prices at $101.50 per ton, up by $3.00 (3.05%), and Newcastle port coal prices at $116.75 per ton, up by $5.25 (4.71%) [1] Auction Performance - The report indicates that ETT led the auction with a transaction of 12.5696 million tons, followed by small TT and ER with 5.3632 million tons and 3.1296 million tons, respectively. The report also notes that coking coal transactions totaled 13.6192 million tons, down by 3.0656 million tons, while thermal coal transactions increased by 3.584 million tons to 8.1728 million tons [6] Key Stocks - The report provides a detailed table of recommended stocks, including: - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.21 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 11.32 - China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH) with an EPS forecast of 2.56 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 16.38 - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) with an EPS forecast of 0.99 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 14.86 [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The port coal price has slightly increased due to a minor contraction in supply and pre-holiday demand for replenishment, with the current price at 692 RMB/ton [1] - The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim has decreased by 1.60% week-on-week, while the average daily outflow has increased by 8.82% [1] - The report anticipates that coal prices will maintain a volatile trend due to high inventory levels and weakening industrial electricity demand as the New Year approaches [1] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,117.95 points, down 0.35% week-on-week, while the coal sector index rose by 1.57% [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - Domestic coal prices have shown stability with slight increases; for instance, the price of 5500 kcal coal in Datong rose by 20 RMB/ton to 602 RMB/ton [16] 3. International Coal Prices - The international coal price index has seen a slight increase, with the Newcastle coal price rising by 1.83 USD/ton to 111.26 USD/ton [19] 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily coal outflow from the Bohai Rim ports increased to 189.33 million tons, while the inflow decreased to 155.18 million tons [30] 5. Shipping Costs - Domestic shipping costs have decreased by 1.30 RMB/ton, now averaging 32.33 RMB/ton [36] 6. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as elastic targets [39]