近年来，人们都有这样的感受：一是品质消费渐成趋势，"过日子"变成了"过好日子"；二是买东西更舒 心，"次日达"成为常态。供给丰富，流通便捷，成为商贸发展的生动缩影。 "十四五"这五年，我国商贸发展，有成绩，有压力。商贸发展顶住了一波又一波冲击，经受住了历史考 验，消费、外贸、外资、对外投资合作等领域主要目标指标进展符合预期。来之不易的成绩，为下一步 发展注入了信心。 发展信心从哪里来？ 先看扩容与提质。社零总额从2020年39.1万亿元提升到2024年48.3万亿元；网上零售连续12年全球第 一，汽车销量全球第一，空调、洗衣机等家电销量全球第一；商旅文融合"一站式"服务不断创新；首发 经济、"人工智能+消费"、"IP+消费"等成为新增长点。超大规模市场体量和新型消费亮点纷呈，孕育着 更丰富的消费市场和机遇。 再看环境与机制。近年来，从全面落实外商投资准入前国民待遇和负面清单管理制度，到出台实施"外 资24条"，再到通过外资企业圆桌会议制度推动解决外资企业各类诉求1500余件……进一步优化开放环 境、市场环境、法律政策环境，有利于激发包括外资外企在内各类经营主体的活力。 从"十四五"展望"十五五"，我国经济长期 ...

（转载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 最近出现频率比较高的词叫"反内卷"，甚至不少人把"反内卷"的重要性上升到了新一轮供给侧结构性改革的高度。但我们始 终认为，只有把造成内卷的根本原因分析清楚，才能对症下药地"反内卷"。近年来资本市场呈现两大特征：风险偏好下降和 无风险投资回报率下降，即所谓的"资产荒"。从资产荒的角度看内卷，或能找到其深层原因。 如今年四月我国10年期国债收益率曾下探至1.55%，创了有记录来最低水平。"资产荒"持续的实质是投资回报率不断走低， 从而导致投资者争相配置这类无（低）风险、低回报率的资产。资产荒不仅在资本市场上挥之不去，实体经济中企业毛利率 的不断走低也是资产荒的一种表现，即企业之间相互压价竞销，制造内卷。本文从资产荒的角度去分析企业、政府和居民部 门的"内卷"行为，希望能为"反内卷"提供线索。 企业投资回报率为何持续走低？ 近年来，规模以上制造业企业营业收入利润率持续下台阶，高点出现在2021年，2022、2023、2024年分别为 5.35%、5%、4.63%，今年前5个月进一步走弱至4.25%。从资产回报上看，规模以上制造业企业每百元资产实现 的营业收 ...

Group 1 - The unprecedented heatwave in Europe in 2025 has transformed air conditioning from a luxury item into a necessity for many, leading to a surge in demand [1][3] - The air conditioning penetration rate in Europe has historically been low, with less than 10% in France and the UK, and only 3% in Germany, influenced by cultural, economic, and EU energy policies [3][8] - The extreme temperatures have prompted a significant increase in inquiries for home air conditioning units, with Chinese manufacturers seizing this opportunity [3][5] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, exports of Chinese home air conditioners to Europe reached 12.7 million units, marking a 30% year-on-year increase, with brands like Midea, Gree, and Haier experiencing remarkable sales [5][6] - The demand for Chinese air conditioning products has led to stock shortages in markets like France and Germany, highlighting the unexpected popularity of these products [5][6] - The heatwave has sparked a deeper reflection among Europeans regarding the balance between energy efficiency and comfort, prompting a reevaluation of lifestyle and consumption habits [8]

Group 1 - Consumption is emphasized as the main engine driving economic growth, with a focus on enhancing domestic demand and consumption as a stabilizing force [1] - Various policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as trade-in programs for consumer goods, have led to a release of domestic consumption demand and increased market vitality [1] - The tourism sector is experiencing a surge, with events like the 2025 Chongli 168 Super Trail Race attracting over 170,000 visitors, marking a year-on-year increase of over 70% [1] Group 2 - Night economy is highlighted as a key indicator of consumption activity, with new night market zones in Zhangye, Gansu, attracting over 80,000 visitors in a single day, a 40% increase compared to last year [2] - There is a notable rise in family-oriented travel and leisure activities during the summer, with significant growth in related service consumption [2][3] - The home appliance market is witnessing a sales boom, particularly in energy-efficient cooling appliances, driven by trade-in policies and consumer incentives [3] Group 3 - The "first launch" economy is becoming a focal point in various markets, with cities like Tianjin implementing measures to promote this sector [3] - In the first half of the year, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.55 trillion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase, with consumption contributing 52% to economic growth [3][4] - Continued efforts are expected to enhance consumption policies, improve the consumption environment, and increase the supply of quality consumer goods [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the effectiveness of Hainan's "old for new" consumption policy, which has significantly boosted consumer participation and sales in various sectors [1][2] - In the first half of the year, the "old for new" policy in Hainan has driven sales of related products to approximately 236 billion yuan [1] - The policy includes support for various durable consumer goods such as automobiles, home appliances, digital products, and electric bicycles, with new subsidies introduced for mobile phones [1] Group 2 - Statistics show that the "old for new" policy directly stimulated a total consumption of 235.98 billion yuan in Hainan during the first half of the year [2] - Specific contributions include: 0.9 thousand vehicles scrapped, leading to 12.52 billion yuan in new car sales; 10.27 thousand vehicle exchanges, resulting in 163 billion yuan in new car sales; and 9.7 thousand electric bicycles exchanged, generating 2.88 billion yuan in new sales [2] - Additionally, 98.06 million home appliances were exchanged, driving 27.96 billion yuan in appliance sales; 17.15 million home decoration items were exchanged, leading to 14.12 billion yuan in home decor sales; and 55.06 million digital products were purchased, resulting in 15.5 billion yuan in sales [2]

Core Insights - The unprecedented heatwave in Europe during the summer of 2025, with temperatures reaching 40°C, has led to significant social disruption and a surge in demand for air conditioning [1][3][5] - The historical low penetration of air conditioning in Europe, with rates below 10% in countries like France and the UK, is being challenged as extreme temperatures force a reevaluation of cooling needs [7][9] - Chinese air conditioning manufacturers have capitalized on this opportunity, with exports to Europe reaching 12.7 million units in the first five months of 2025, marking a 30% increase year-on-year [9][10] Market Dynamics - The extreme heat has resulted in a dramatic increase in air conditioning inquiries, with UK companies reporting a threefold rise in household air conditioning consultations over five years [7] - The demand for air conditioning has transformed from a luxury to a necessity, with political figures advocating for increased infrastructure to support cooling solutions [7][9] - Major Chinese brands such as Midea, Gree, and Haier have seen significant sales growth, with Midea's products experiencing a 68% increase in sales in France [9][10] Future Projections - The International Energy Agency predicts that the number of air conditioning units in Europe will exceed 275 million by the middle of the century, more than doubling from 2019 levels [10] - The shift in the European market highlights the tension between energy efficiency and comfort, prompting a reevaluation of environmental policies in light of changing consumer needs [10]

Group 1: Foreign Investment Policies - The Chinese government is encouraging foreign investors to reinvest in China by implementing tax support policies and simplifying investment processes [1][2] - The new measures allow foreign investment enterprises to reinvest profits without needing to register for domestic reinvestment, thus reducing currency and tax costs [1] Group 2: Domestic Consumption and Economic Policies - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted domestic consumption, with sales reaching 2.9 trillion yuan, benefiting around 400 million people [3][4] - The government plans to continue supporting this policy to stimulate domestic demand, although the effectiveness may diminish without additional supportive measures [4] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Holdings - China has continued to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds for three consecutive months, with a total holding of 756.3 billion USD as of May [5][6] - This trend reflects a strategic move to decrease reliance on the U.S. dollar and promote the internationalization of the yuan [6] Group 4: Central Enterprises Performance - Central enterprises reported a value-added output of 5.2 trillion yuan and a profit total of 1.4 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, indicating stable performance amid external challenges [7][8] - Investment in strategic emerging industries remains high, showcasing a shift in focus towards enhancing future competitiveness [8] Group 5: Automotive Tax Policy Changes - The threshold for luxury car consumption tax has been lowered from 1.3 million yuan to 900,000 yuan, which will increase costs for certain vehicle buyers [9][10] - This policy aims to boost tax revenue while potentially dampening luxury car sales, although the overall impact is expected to be manageable [10] Group 6: Semiconductor Industry Insights - TSMC reported a 61% increase in net profit for Q2 2025, driven by strong demand for advanced semiconductor processes, particularly in AI applications [11][12] - The company maintains a leading position in the market, with advanced processes accounting for 74% of total revenue, indicating robust customer demand for cutting-edge technology [11] Group 7: Volvo's Financial Challenges - Volvo reported its first quarterly loss since going public, with a 10 billion SEK operating loss due to high one-time costs related to U.S. tariffs [13][14] - The company is exploring options to establish manufacturing in the U.S. to mitigate tariff impacts, reflecting broader challenges faced by global automakers [14] Group 8: Stock Market Trends - The stock market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, indicating a recovery in trading enthusiasm [15][16] - Market dynamics are influenced by various sectors, with energy and metal prices showing upward trends, although the sustainability of these price increases remains uncertain [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing significant changes, with the Hang Seng AH Premium Index declining and reaching a new low for the year, indicating a narrowing premium of A-shares relative to H-shares, reflecting improved liquidity and value reassessment in the market [1] Group 1: AH Premium Rate Trends - The trend of narrowing AH premium rates is particularly evident at the individual stock level, with all 160 A+H listed companies seeing their AH premium rates drop below 200% [3] - The highest premium rate is for Chenming Paper, at 199.54%, contrasting sharply with the end of 2024 when over 10 stocks had premium rates exceeding 200% [3] - As of July 18, the number of stocks with premium rates over 100% has decreased to 32, down from 57 at the end of 2024, with BYD and Hongye Futures leading at 185.83% and 185.47% respectively [3] - Notably, four stocks are now trading at a discount of A-shares relative to H-shares, with CATL showing the largest discount at 24.63% [3] Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - H-shares have performed strongly this year, supporting the narrowing premium rates, with seven H-shares doubling in value, including Rongchang Bio, which surged by 3.91 times [4] - Foreign institutions are increasingly favoring leading assets in the Hong Kong market, as evidenced by Wellington Management's purchase of 1.14 million shares of Hengrui Medicine for approximately 84.93 million HKD [4] - CATL's H-shares have seen a cumulative increase of 50.19% since their listing on May 20, with JPMorgan increasing its stake to 5.26% after purchasing 851,600 shares [4] - WuXi AppTec also attracted foreign investment, with FMR LLC increasing its holdings to 14.04% after buying 1.72 million shares [4] Group 3: Structural Changes in the Market - The Hong Kong stock market is undergoing structural changes, with new economy sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy, and consumer electronics rapidly emerging [5] - These sectors demonstrate stronger profit growth certainty and align better with global investors' long-term allocation preferences [5] - There is a noticeable differentiation in market structure, with large-cap companies having significantly lower premium rates compared to small-cap companies, indicating institutional investors' growing recognition of industry leaders and companies with solid fundamentals [5]

市场调研公司欧睿国际最近的报告显示，中国在东南亚电器消费市场的份额从2015年的3.6%上升到 2024年的8.6%，其中一些产品崛起尤为强劲。欧睿国际高级全球洞察经理蒂姆·蔡说："中国的创新竞争 很激烈。在中国市场存活下来的强势企业一旦进入海外市场，就能凭借经验形成主导优势。" 海尔、美的等中国家电巨头通过收购和建立本地生产基地，逐步扩大全球版图。一些知名度较低的品牌 也凭借在国内积累的经验，借助高效、低成本的物流和强大线上销售渠道，不断提升（在东南亚的）市 场份额。 日本"日经亚洲评论"7月16日文章，原题：中国消费品牌在东南亚市场崛起，挑战老牌巨头 中国消费品 牌正通过收购竞争对手和利用线上销售渠道，加速在东南亚的扩张，深入进军曾由日韩和欧洲企业主导 的家电和化妆品市场。与汽车和智能手机领域的中国企业一样，海尔等大品牌以及一些不太知名的中国 品牌在该地区迅速扩张。 随着美国不断提高关税，中国消费品涌入东南亚的趋势可能加速。（作者铃木航等，刘长煌译） 中国企业的崛起挤压了曾在东南亚主导相关领域的日韩制造商的空间，如松下、LG电子等品牌。在空 调领域，2015年至2024年，日企的市场份额下降7个百分点，中 ...

Group 1: Strategic Partnerships and Expansions - Baidu's autonomous driving service platform "Luobo Kuaipao" has formed a global strategic partnership with Uber to expand driverless services beyond the US and mainland China, with thousands of sixth-generation driverless cars expected to join Uber's global network by the end of this year [1] - DingTalk, a subsidiary of Alibaba, has launched its first independent AI application "7Ding" overseas, integrating AI, office collaboration, and e-commerce procurement functions to enhance business efficiency [2] - WeRide has commenced pure driverless operations of its autonomous shuttle "Robobus" in Singapore, marking a milestone for smart mobility in Southeast Asia [3] Group 2: Market Entries and Product Launches - CHAGEE (霸王茶姬) has officially re-entered the Vietnamese market with its first store opening in Ho Chi Minh City, focusing on fresh leaf milk tea and original tea series products [4] - Midea Group has signed a sponsorship deal for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, aiming to accelerate its investment in the African market, with plans to invest at least $50 million in local production of home appliances by early 2026 [5][6] - Chery Automobile plans to launch two new SUV models in the UK, optimizing them for the local market, following a successful sales increase in the previous year [7] Group 3: Entertainment and Cultural Exports - The Chinese animated film "Nezha 2" premiered in the UAE and is set to release in North America starting August 22, having already broken numerous box office records [8] Group 4: Overseas Manufacturing Initiatives - Changan Automobile is in the planning stage for establishing a factory in Europe, with a focus on selling electric vehicles across ten European countries by 2027 [9] - Shoujia Technology is exploring the feasibility of establishing a manufacturing base in Romania as part of its overseas growth strategy, with a significant portion of its business now coming from exports [10] Group 5: Financing and IPO Activities - XPeng Huitian has completed a $250 million Series B financing round to support the development and commercialization of its flying car [11][12] - MiniMax, backed by Alibaba, has submitted an IPO application in Hong Kong, with a valuation of approximately $4 billion [13] - Zhipu AI is considering relocating its IPO to Hong Kong, seeking to raise around $300 million [14] - Yushu Technology has initiated its IPO counseling process with CITIC Securities as the advisory firm [15]