Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a significant surge in the small metal and precious metal sectors on February 25, 2026, driven by four major favorable factors, leading to a collective rise in 21 leading small metal stocks and a notable increase in gold and silver prices [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 25, the small metal sector rose by 4.00%, with a net inflow of 14.034 billion yuan, and 154 stocks within the sector increased in value, with 21 leading stocks hitting the daily limit [3][4]. - Precious metals also saw a strong performance, with international silver prices surging by 4.00% to $90.703 per ounce, and domestic silver futures rising by 4.57% to 23,029 yuan per kilogram [3][6]. Group 2: Favorable Factors - The first favorable factor is the U.S. policy to use AI models to set reference prices for strategic small metals like germanium, gallium, antimony, and tungsten, enhancing their scarcity value [4]. - The second factor is the increased demand from industrial recovery and production resumption, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance for small metals [4]. - The third factor is the ample market liquidity, with continuous inflows of capital into undervalued resource sectors [4]. - The fourth factor is the global uncertainty and inflation expectations, which have bolstered the safe-haven and anti-inflation attributes of precious metals [4]. Group 3: Leading Stocks - The 21 leading small metal stocks that hit the daily limit include key players in rare earths, tungsten, germanium, titanium, and tantalum, with North Rare Earth receiving a net inflow of 3.625 billion yuan, making it the top stock in terms of capital attraction [5]. - Stocks like Huaxi Nonferrous, Yunnan Germanium, and Zhongtung High-tech also saw significant gains due to their resource advantages and performance certainty [5]. Group 4: Investment Implications - The rise in gold and silver prices not only reflects market trends but also impacts everyday financial management and physical investments, leading to tangible asset appreciation for investors [7]. - Investors are advised to focus on core small metal stocks and avoid speculative stocks without performance backing, while maintaining a long-term perspective on gold and silver investments [8].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing high volatility, with spot gold prices surpassing $5200 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainties [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The domestic consumption market for gold remains robust, particularly during the Spring Festival, with high-end ancient gold and investment gold products gaining consumer attention [1] - In major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, the gold consumption market is thriving, with many investors purchasing physical gold, especially smaller weight investment gold bars [1] - Promotions and discounts during the Spring Festival, such as consumption vouchers and store-specific offers, have significantly enhanced the cost-effectiveness of gold purchases, attracting more consumers [1] Group 2: Consumer Preferences - High-end ancient gold products are favored by consumers for their quality and aesthetic appeal, while smaller weight items and zodiac-themed gold bars reflect diverse and personalized consumer demands [2] - Investors continue to show strong interest in gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty, with a focus on preserving value through investment gold bars [2] Group 3: Price Predictions - Deutsche Bank has reiterated its forecast for gold prices to reach $6000 per ounce, citing stable thematic drivers supporting gold prices [2] - UBS Wealth Management maintains a view of gold as an attractive investment, suggesting that investors consider allocating a single-digit percentage of their diversified portfolios to gold [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened positively on the first trading day of the Lunar New Year, with all three major indices rising, indicating a strong start for the year [2] - The overall market showed a significant upward trend, with over 4,000 stocks rising and more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit up, reflecting strong bullish sentiment [2] Sector Performance - The oil and gas, as well as precious metals sectors, were the standout performers, driven by geopolitical tensions and rising international commodity prices [3] - Oil stocks maintained strong performance, with companies like Keli Co. rising over 20%, and several others hitting the daily limit up [3] - Precious metals also saw significant gains, with companies like Xiaocheng Technology rising over 15% and gold prices surpassing $5,200 per ounce [3] Consumer Trends - The gold retail market is showing signs of price increases, with some products expected to rise by over 33% around March 10, indicating strong market demand [4] - Other sectors such as MICC, phosphorus chemicals, and glass fiber also performed well, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up [4] Weakness in Film Industry - In contrast to the resource sectors, the film industry faced significant declines, with major companies like Light Media dropping nearly 20% [5] - Despite high box office numbers during the Spring Festival, the market's reaction was muted, leading to profit-taking and a shift in investor focus towards resource sectors [5] Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a bullish trend as it approaches the Two Sessions, with a focus on infrastructure projects and stable growth [6] - Analysts predict a second phase of market growth may begin around mid-2026, with technology sectors like robotics and AI applications being highlighted for potential investment [7]

Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are driving significant interest in the gold market, with expectations that gold prices could break historical highs if external conflicts escalate [1][3] - Historical data indicates that major geopolitical events often lead to substantial capital inflows into safe-haven assets like gold, reshaping investor allocation strategies [1][3] - A potential military conflict between major powers could lead to a short-term increase in gold prices by approximately 15%, particularly concentrated in the two weeks following the event [1][3] Market Dynamics - As of early February, aggressive rhetoric regarding Iran has helped gold prices stabilize above the $5,000 mark, although the volatility of safe-haven sentiment is noted [2][4] - The current geopolitical strategy differs from past full-scale war models, leaning towards "precision strikes" rather than regime change, which may shorten the crisis cycle to about a month [2][4] - This limited conflict model could lead to rapid market fluctuations, but also suggests that any premium on gold prices may decrease more quickly than in previous instances [2][4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to be cautious and avoid blindly chasing prices during peak emotional periods, as the market often exhibits a "buy the rumor, sell the news" behavior [2][4] - The upward potential for gold prices is significant due to geopolitical premiums, but maintaining a calm approach is essential as prices approach the $5,800 mark, testing both the limits of international stability and market liquidity [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in the prices of gold and silver, with notable gains in related mining stocks, indicating a positive trend in the precious metals market [1]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Spot gold rose by 0.76%, reaching $5,184.5 [1] - Spot silver increased by over 4%, reaching $90.77 [1] Group 2: Mining Stocks Movement - Barrick Mining (B.US) saw an increase of over 1.2% [1] - Newmont Corporation (NEM.US) rose by 0.92% [1] - Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM.US) increased by over 1% [1] - First Majestic Silver (AG.US) surged by over 3% [1] - Fortuna Silver Mines (FSM.US) rose by over 2% [1] - Pan American Silver (PAAS.US) increased by nearly 2% [1]

Group 1: Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in short-term loans from large banks, while credit growth in small and medium-sized banks is slowing down [1][4]. - The article discusses the impact of the Spring Festival on deposit fluctuations, noting a year-on-year increase of 3.5 trillion yuan in unit deposits, with a notable shift of personal deposits from small to large banks [2][4]. - The investment strategy for the banking sector in 2026 focuses on identifying targets with potential for growth, banks with convertible bond expectations, and maintaining a dividend strategy [5]. Group 2: Liability Side - Unit deposits saw a year-on-year increase of 3.5 trillion yuan, with demand for current deposits rising by 2.5 trillion yuan and a decrease in time deposits by 912 billion yuan, attributed to the Spring Festival's timing [2]. - Personal deposits experienced a year-on-year increase of only 3.3 trillion yuan, with current and time savings deposits decreasing by 1.9 trillion yuan and 398.7 billion yuan respectively, indicating a migration trend from small to large banks [2]. - Non-bank deposits increased by 2.9 trillion yuan, with large banks contributing 2.2 trillion yuan and small banks 646.1 billion yuan, driven by a low base effect from regulatory changes [2]. Group 3: Asset Side - Total loans decreased by 489.3 billion yuan year-on-year, with large banks and small banks seeing reductions of 213 billion yuan and 276.3 billion yuan respectively, reflecting subdued credit demand and increased pressure on small banks [4]. - Short-term loans saw a significant increase of 347.8 billion yuan, with large banks experiencing a rise of 419.7 billion yuan, driven by both corporate and consumer short-term loans [4]. - Bond investments increased by 205.7 billion yuan year-on-year, with large banks increasing by 376 billion yuan and small banks decreasing by 170.3 billion yuan [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [3][5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the U.S. non-farm payroll data for January exceeded expectations, with 130,000 jobs added, leading to a decrease in unemployment to 4.3%. This has resulted in a cooling of interest rate cut expectations [2]. - The report expresses a positive long-term outlook for gold prices, driven by central bank purchases and a weakening U.S. dollar credit [2]. - The silver market is expected to remain weak due to pressure from photovoltaic demand and rising costs in silver paste [2]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report notes that the SW Non-ferrous Index increased by 1.67% during the week, while the COMEX gold price rose by 1.51% and COMEX silver fell by 0.33% [9][12]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of stock performance, highlighting the top gainers and losers in the non-ferrous metals sector [12]. Base Metals - The report discusses the price movements of various base metals, indicating that aluminum prices have shown a slight decline of 0.63% to $3,091 per ton, while copper prices decreased by 0.98% to $12,932 per ton [14][25]. - It mentions that the domestic aluminum production is expected to decline due to the upcoming Spring Festival, leading to weaker demand [26]. Precious Metals and Minor Metals - The report indicates that gold prices are expected to rise, with the current average price at 1,101.52 CNY per gram, while silver prices have decreased significantly [74]. - It also highlights the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting precious metal prices, particularly in the context of U.S.-Iran relations [2][78]. Energy Metals - The report emphasizes a clear shortage in the energy metals sector, particularly lithium and cobalt, with expectations for price increases post-holiday due to recovering demand [2][60]. - It notes that the nickel market is likely to see upward price movement due to Indonesia's mining quota policies [2][60]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Zijin Mining, Huayou Cobalt, and China Nonferrous Mining, among others, based on their strong earnings forecasts and favorable market conditions [3][5].

贵金属日报 2026年02月25日 操作评级 刘冬博 高级分析师 贵金属 女女女 F3062795 Z0015311 吴江 高级分析师 F3085524 Z0016394 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 ★★★ 三颗星代表更加明晰的多/空趋势,且当前仍具备相对恰当的投资机会 白星代表短期多/空趋势处在一种相对均衡状态中,且当前盘面可操作性较差,以观望为主 隔夜贵金属有所回落。白宫关于伊朗问题表态称特朗普的首要选择始终是通过外交途径解决问题,但在必要 时也会准备动用致命乱力。特朗普新征收的10%的全球关税开始生效,自宫正在制定行政令以提高税率。短 期地缘谈判和关税政策均处于关键节点，贵金属等待进一步驱动。白银主要体现为高波动率延续导致的双向 扫动,无明确有力的驱动方向,等待伊朗事件出清。 ์ְലാ:节中宏观局势带动金银拉升，铂、肥投资溢价空间再打开。全球纪主要供应商诺尔里斯克2026年把产 量预期同比下调 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, under the dominance of macro uncertainties, the commodity market may fluctuate with a slight upward trend. The Fed officials' hawkish signals, the US government's tariff policies, and the tense situation between the US and Iran are the main factors affecting the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Before the holiday, the overall commodity market declined slightly by 0.23%. Precious metals led the gain at 3.29%, followed by non - ferrous metals and agricultural products with increases of 1.58% and 0.23% respectively. Black metals and energy - chemical products decreased by 1.1% and 1.11% respectively [2][6]. - Among specific varieties, the top - gainers were soybean No.1, silver, and apple, with increases of 6.76%, 5.23%, and 3.15% respectively. The top - losers were palm oil, asphalt, and styrene, with decreases of 3.63%, 3.56%, and 3.49% respectively [2][6]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market decreased slightly, and the fluctuations of each sector converged. The overall market scale increased significantly, and funds in each sector showed net inflows [2][6]. 3.2 Market Outlook - During the holiday, Fed officials' signals were hawkish, and the US Supreme Court's ruling on the tariff policy and Trump's new 10% global tariff affected the US dollar. The tense US - Iran situation supported the oil price. In the short - term, the commodity market may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2]. 3.3 Sector - specific Analysis - **Precious Metals**: Overseas precious metals prices soared after sharp fluctuations during the holiday. With the US GDP falling short of expectations, strong core PCE, and the weakening US dollar due to the tariff policy ruling, and the lack of substantial progress in US - Iran negotiations, the strength of precious metals may continue [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Affected by the Spring Festival, terminal demand and investment weakened. The market believes that the Fed has internal differences, and the US dollar's upward trend has ended. Most varieties' inventories increased, but some supply - side supports remained. In the short - term, non - ferrous metals may be more likely to rise than fall [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar dropped to a low, and production remained at a low level. The inventory accumulation was lower than the same period in previous years. After the holiday, iron - water production is expected to continue the recovery trend, and there is also some restocking demand. Overseas iron - ore swaps weakened during the holiday, and concerns about iron - ore oversupply persisted. Coke inventory increased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Energy**: International oil prices continued to rise during the holiday. The US - Iran situation affecting the Strait of Hormuz and the unexpected drawdown of US crude and gasoline inventories in EIA data on February 20th pushed up oil prices. The next round of US - Iran negotiations is scheduled for February 26th in Geneva, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market's fluctuations in the next two weeks [4]. - **Chemical Industry**: The strong oil price provides cost support, and the warming macro - sentiment is beneficial. After the holiday, domestic downstream industries will gradually resume work. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation may improve in the second quarter due to planned maintenance and expected demand recovery. For polypropylene, considering controllable supply pressure, rigid demand from downstream factories, and significant cost influence, the price may trend upward [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: During the holiday, the supply - demand structure of the new US soybean crop tightened year - on - year, and the optimistic expectation of the US biodiesel policy supported the strength of overseas oilseeds. The good short - term export and crushing data of US soybeans boosted prices, but the tariff policy may bring uncertainties to US soybean exports [4]. 3.4 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns, with an average return rate of about 1.37% - 1.75%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 3,182.54 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.20%. The trading volume decreased by 57.09% [36]. - The energy - chemical ETF (represented by the Jianxin Energy - Chemical Futures ETF) had a return rate of 0.14%, with a scale of 21.13 billion yuan and a growth rate of 1.79%. The trading volume decreased by 33.79% [36]. - The soybean meal ETF (represented by the Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF) had a return rate of 2.26%, with a scale of 27.19 billion yuan and a growth rate of 0.43%. The trading volume increased by 3.91% [36]. - The non - ferrous metal ETF (represented by the Dacheng Non - Ferrous Metal Futures ETF) had a return rate of 1.34%, with a scale of 76.79 billion yuan and a decline rate of 2.09%. The trading volume decreased by 36.37% [36]. - The silver fund (represented by the Guotou Ruixin Silver Futures (LOF)) had a return rate of 6.32%, with a scale of 104.47 billion yuan and no change in scale. The trading volume increased by 565.95% [36].

Market Performance - The A-share market opened positively on the first trading day of the Year of the Horse, with all three major indices closing higher. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.41 points, up 0.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 14291.57, up 1.36%, and the ChiNext Index at 3308.26, up 0.99% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 22,182 billion yuan, an increase of 2,192 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4,000 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - The oil and gas extraction and services, precious metals, cultivated diamonds, and coal mining sectors saw significant gains, while the film and television, AI applications, and computing power leasing sectors experienced declines [3] - In the oil and gas sector, Keli Co. led with a 26.03% increase, while Tongyuan Petroleum and Qianeng Hengxin hit the daily limit. Other stocks like Zhongman Petroleum and CNOOC also saw substantial gains [3] - The precious metals sector was led by Xiaocheng Technology with a 15.19% increase, and several stocks in this sector reached the daily limit [3] Geopolitical Influence - The rise in the oil and precious metals sectors is attributed to geopolitical risks, particularly the U.S. military buildup in the Middle East and President Trump's consideration of limited military action against Iran [3] Market Outlook - According to Industrial Securities, the A-share market is expected to enter a high-probability window post-holiday, supported by macroeconomic catalysts and the resolution of U.S. tariff issues [4] - Citic Securities noted that the rise of AI coding capabilities is leading to exponential growth in global code volume, with A-shares likely to be less affected by AI disruptions compared to U.S. and Hong Kong stocks, suggesting a continuation of the spring market rally [4] Investment Trends - Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund's chief economist Yang Delong indicated that as household savings shift towards capital markets, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to maintain a slow bull market trend. An estimated 50 trillion yuan in fixed deposits will mature by 2026, potentially driving investors towards equity assets [5] - The issuance of new funds has shown a significant recovery this year, supporting the capital market's strength in 2026 [5]