奈飞（NFLX.O）美东时间10月21日盘后发布了2025年三季度财报。股价大跌已经反映了资金态度，表面是对盈利miss的惩罚，实则是复刻上季度剧本 ——短期高估值下，未超预期就是不及预期。 具体来看： 1. 盈利实际超预期：一笔高达6.19亿美元的额外成本计提，影响了当期利润率5个多点，造成了不及预期的假象。这笔费用主要涉及巴西对流媒体公司征 收的市级服务税，因为一直存在争议，此前未被奈飞明确计提。 三季度可能是因为该项税费无法避免，因此奈飞确认了从2022年至今的累积费用，一次性计入到其他成本项，所以对Q3当期业绩冲击比较大。 上季度给的指引并不包含该项支出，若剔除该影响，实际经营利润为38.7亿，同比增长33%，利润率33.6%，超出市场一致预期。后续这笔税费对公司整 体利润影响相对较小，因此公司对Q4业绩的指引也基本与市场预期差不多。 2. 收入平平才是下跌主因：而体现成长性的收入端则依旧无惊无喜，当期和下季度指引都基本符合预期。三季度收入同比增长17%，美元在不同地区的汇 率影响存在对冲，综合看并未存在我们预想的外汇顺风。 收入增长依旧是靠涨价和广告带动。 （1）订阅 通过我们简单地估算，年初欧美核 ...

Market Overview - The market is overshadowed by trade tensions and concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, leading to mixed performance in U.S. stock futures and declines in European and Asian markets [1][2] - The S&P 500 futures rose nearly 0.1%, while the Dow futures increased by 0.04%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures saw a slight decline of 0.01% [2][7] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with spot gold falling to below $4070 per ounce, marking a substantial decline of 6.3%, the largest intraday drop in over a decade [1][3][7] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to technical selling, as the market had been in an overbought condition since early September, despite a nearly 60% increase in gold prices year-to-date [3][4] Corporate Earnings - Investor sentiment is being influenced by improved corporate earnings reports, although uncertainties regarding trade prospects and the government shutdown remain [2] - Tesla is set to report its earnings, which will be closely watched as it marks the beginning of earnings reports from major tech companies [2] European Market - European stock indices opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index down by 0.27%, while the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.44% [7] - The market is reacting to mixed signals from corporate earnings and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [4][7] Cryptocurrency Market - Cryptocurrencies are experiencing declines, with Bitcoin down nearly 0.4% and Ethereum down approximately 0.9% [7]

Market Overview - The market remains overshadowed by trade tensions and concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, leading to mixed movements in U.S. stock futures and declines in European and Asian markets [1][2] - The S&P 500 futures rose nearly 0.1%, while the Dow futures increased by 0.04%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures saw a slight decline of 0.01% [2][7] - The dollar strengthened, while U.S. Treasury yields remained stable at 3.96% [7] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with spot gold falling to below $4070 per ounce, marking a decline of 6.3%, the largest intraday drop in over a decade [1][3][7] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to technical selling, as the market had been in an overbought condition since early September [1][3] - Despite the recent volatility, gold prices have increased nearly 60% year-to-date, supported by market risk aversion and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] Corporate Earnings and Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment is influenced by improving corporate earnings, although uncertainties regarding trade prospects and the government shutdown persist [2] - Tesla's upcoming earnings report is highly anticipated, as it will kick off the earnings season for major tech companies, with investors keen on updates regarding federal electric vehicle tax credits and autonomous taxi launches [2] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties continue to affect market stability, with preparations for a peace summit between Hungary and Russia still in progress, despite the cancellation of a recent U.S.-Russia meeting [4]

Core Viewpoint - Netflix's Q3 2025 earnings report revealed a significant drop in stock price, primarily due to a perceived earnings miss, despite actual operating profits exceeding market expectations when adjusted for a one-time tax expense [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of $102.47 billion for Q3, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 17% [7]. - Operating income was reported at $32.49 billion, but this included a one-time cost of $6.19 billion related to a municipal service tax in Brazil, which impacted the profit margin by over 5 percentage points [24]. - Excluding this tax impact, the actual operating profit was $38.7 billion, representing a 33% year-over-year increase and a profit margin of 34% [24]. Revenue and Growth Drivers - Revenue growth was primarily driven by price increases and advertising, with a modest net addition of approximately 4 million subscribers, lower than the previous two years' quarterly averages [3][12]. - The average revenue per user (ARPU) growth was limited to 3-5% due to price increases being offset by the introduction of ad-supported tiers [3]. Content Investment and Strategy - Netflix's content investment for the year is projected to fall short of the initial target of $18 billion, likely reaching between $17 billion and $17.5 billion [5][17]. - The company spent $4.6 billion on content in Q3, an increase from the previous quarter, but still reflects a trend of controlling content spending amid a relatively stable competitive environment [17][21]. Cash Flow and Share Buybacks - Free cash flow for Q3 was approximately $26.6 billion, exceeding market expectations, and the company raised its full-year cash flow target from $8-8.5 billion to $9 billion [26]. - In Q3, Netflix repurchased $1.9 billion worth of shares at an average price of $1,250, although the impact on stock price has been limited [26]. Future Outlook - The company remains optimistic about Q4, expecting a net addition of around 10 million subscribers, driven by the release of major content such as the final season of "Stranger Things" [15][17].

Group 1 - Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) rejected a cash-based acquisition offer from Paramount Skydance at nearly $24 per share, totaling slightly below $60 billion [1][2] - The rejection indicates that the market perceives the offer as insufficient in terms of valuation and premium, suggesting a need for a public bidding process to achieve a higher price [2] - Warner Bros. Discovery previously proposed a split into two companies (streaming and traditional film business) to unlock value, reinforcing the belief that the value from a split or sale could exceed a single buyer's offer [2] Group 2 - Following the news of the rejected offer, Warner Bros. Discovery's stock price rose over 12% during trading, closing up 10.97% at $20.33 [1]

已在多部作品中试水 奈飞（Netflix）正全力拥抱生成式AI，但坚信这项技术只是提升创意效率的工具，而非创意的源泉。 在周二发布的季度财报中，这家流媒体巨头向投资者表示，公司"处于非常有利的位置，能够有效利用 AI的持续进步"。奈飞联席CEO Ted Sarandos在随后的财报电话会议上强调，公司将"全力投入"AI，以 帮助创意伙伴"更好、更快、以新的方式"讲述故事。 尽管态度积极，Sarandos也为市场划定了清晰的界限。他指出，AI无法让一个不擅长讲故事的人自动成 为伟大的故事讲述者。"创作伟大的作品需要伟大的艺术家，"他表示。 奈飞的立场可能为行业树立一个风向标，即制片公司更倾向于将AI用于特效等幕后工作，而非直接取 代演员。财报显示，公司季度收入同比增长17%至115亿美元，但低于公司预期。 AI赋能创意，而非取代 奈飞高层反复强调，AI的角色是辅助工具，而非创作者的替代品。 Sarandos在财报电话会议上表示，AI可以为创意人员提供更好的工具，以增强会员的整体影视体验，但 它本身并不创造伟大的叙事能力。 "我们不担心AI会取代创造力，"Sarandos称。 他补充说，奈飞拥抱AI是为了帮助其创 ...

Core Viewpoint - Netflix's stock dropped over 6% after hours, closing at $1163.28, despite reporting strong revenue growth and profit for Q3 [1] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached $11.51 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 17.2% [1] - Q3 net profit was $2.547 billion, compared to $2.364 billion in the same period last year [1] - Q3 earnings per share (EPS) stood at $5.87 [1] - The company projects Q4 revenue to be $11.96 billion [1] - Full-year revenue is expected to be $45.1 billion, slightly above the previous estimate of $44.8 billion to $45.2 billion [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Netflix's Q3 revenue grew by 17.2% year-over-year to $11.51 billion, meeting analyst expectations [2] - Net profit and earnings per share (EPS) were significantly below expectations, with year-over-year growth of 7.7% and 8.7% respectively [2] - Operating profit margin decreased to 28.2%, primarily due to a $619 million tax expense in Brazil, which caused a drop of over 5 percentage points in the margin [2] - The company lowered its full-year operating profit margin guidance from 30% to 29%, but raised its full-year free cash flow guidance by approximately 9% [2] Group 2 - Q3 advertising revenue reached a record high for a single quarter, with expectations for annual advertising revenue to more than double [3]

三季度奈飞营收同比增长加快至逾17%，符合分析师预期；广告收入创单季新高；净利润和EPS盈利较预期低至少14%；营业利润率回落至 28.2%，巴西税务纠纷相关支出6.19亿美元导致利润率下降5个百分点，若无此支出，利润率本可高于公司指引31.5%。奈飞预计税务纠纷不 会对未来业绩产生重大影响，但鉴于税务问题，将今年营业利润率指引从30%下调至29%；预计今年广告收入翻一倍多，全年自由现金流指 引提高9%。 美国流媒体巨头奈飞（Netflix）三季度业绩"爆冷"：虽然服务涨价和会员强劲增长推动公司的广告收入创新高，但与巴西税务部门的税务纠 纷带来意外的支出，公司盈利远不及预期，并且由此下调了全年的利润率指引。 广告业务加速增长 奈飞表示第三季度创下最佳广告销售纪录，今年该业务营收有望较去年增长一倍以上。营收增长由会员增长、价格上调和广告收入增加共同 驱动。公司今年1月上调了订阅价格，包括含广告套餐的费用。 不过，EMarketer高级分析师Ross Benes在声明中指出："奈飞迎来了迄今最佳的广告销售季度，但仍未披露广告业务的具体规模。这给人 的印象是，本季度实现的持续营收增长以及下季度的预测增长，主要仍将来 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周二，美股三大股指收盘涨跌不一，企业财报推动道指创新高，贸易前景的不确定 性打压科技股和小盘股，纳指收跌，标普500勉强收平。 【美股】截至收盘，道指涨218.16点，涨幅为0.47%，报46924.74点；纳指跌36.88点，跌幅为0.16%，报 22953.67点；标普500指数涨0.22点，报6735.35点。苹果(AAPL.US)三连涨，盘中再创新高。谷歌 (GOOGL.US)收跌2.37%，特斯拉(TSLA.US)跌1.08%，英伟达(NVDA.US)跌0.81%，Meta(META.US)和 微软(MSFT.US)则至多涨0.17%，可口可乐(KO.US)涨4%，Meme股Beyond Meat(BYND.US)飙升146%， 三日累涨约600%。 【欧股】欧元区斯托克50指数收涨0.10%，报5686.83点，再创收盘历史新高；德国DAX 30指数收涨 0.29%，报24330.03点；法国CAC 40指数收涨0.64%，报8258.86点；英国富时100指数收涨0.25%，报 9426.99点。 【原油】WTI 11月原油期货收涨0.30美元，涨幅0.52%，报57.82美 ...