重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 随着4月底临近，上市公司正迎来一季报的密集披露期。通常来讲，一季报作为上市公司每年首份公开 披露的业绩报告，对全年经营具有较强的前瞻性指引作用，因其不仅能够有效反映当下行业和公司的经 营状况，而且也能体现对未来经营的预期。我们以A股和港股总市值超过200亿元的所有上市企业，以 及其它具有行业代表性的公司为样本，梳理卖方分析师的盈利预测后，发现以下三个领域当前展现出了 明显的景气改善迹象： 1 AI产业链代表的科技行业 AI产业链代表的科技行业 数据来源：万得、淡水泉投资，选用数据区间为2024年1月1日至2025年4月18日。 超越经济周期、具有独立成长逻辑的优质公司 在宏观经济仍面临不确定性的大环境下，各行各业开始涌现出越来越多超越经济周期、具备独立成长逻 辑的优质公司。以储能产业链为例，虽然行业仍存在供给过剩的情况，但是部分龙头公司凭借全球化产 能布局在一定程度上规避关税影响，同时依靠先进技术带来的成本优势，海外产能充分受益于海外需求 增长带动的储能订单释放，形成量利 ...

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - The article highlights three sectors showing significant signs of recovery: the AI industry chain, industries benefiting from the "old-for-new" policy, and high-quality companies with independent growth logic [1][4]. Group 2: AI Industry Chain - The technology sector, particularly the AI industry chain, is experiencing notable growth due to favorable regulatory changes and increased capital expenditure from leading internet companies, with a projected growth of over 50% in capital expenditure by 2025 compared to 2024 [3][4]. - The improvement in AI infrastructure is driving profitability across the entire AI industry chain, including chip design and manufacturing, with new technological breakthroughs expected to contribute significantly to leading companies' performance [3][4]. Group 3: "Old-for-New" Policy Beneficiaries - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted demand in the home appliance and automotive sectors, with the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles exceeding 50% for seven consecutive months since June [8][9]. - The retail sales growth of home appliances and audio-visual equipment has remained above 20% for four consecutive months since September, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [8]. Group 4: High-Quality Companies with Independent Growth Logic - In a macroeconomic environment filled with uncertainties, a growing number of high-quality companies are emerging that possess independent growth logic, particularly in the energy storage industry, which is benefiting from global demand despite supply surplus [11][13]. - Domestic consumer market changes have created new opportunities for local brands, particularly in cosmetics, pet products, and trendy toys, as these brands effectively address consumer needs and build strong brand identities [11][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [4][29] - The report recommends "Increase" ratings for specific companies: Oppein Home, Sophia, Explorer, Semir Apparel, and Guibao Pet [4][29] Core Insights - The introduction of the "Consumption Boosting Special Action Plan" by the government aims to significantly stimulate domestic demand, benefiting sectors such as home furnishings, apparel, and pets [3][28] - From a valuation perspective, as of March 14, 2025, the PE-TTM for the home goods sector is 26.65 times and for the apparel sector is 28.06 times, both significantly lower than their historical averages, indicating potential for valuation recovery [3][28] Industry News - A major paper company in the Middle East has launched the largest paper production line in the region, enhancing its global market position [9] - Gap Inc. reported strong fourth-quarter results with a net income of $206 million, reflecting the success of its transformation strategy [9] Company Announcements - Tianyuan Pet plans to acquire Taotong Technology through a combination of stock issuance and cash payment [21] - Nanshan Zhishang reported a 5.82% decline in net profit year-on-year, attributed to increased interest expenses and weak performance in its fine woolen fabric business [22] Market Review - From March 10 to March 14, the light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.18 percentage points, with notable performances in home goods and packaging printing [23] - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.36 percentage points during the same period, driven by strong performance in the jewelry segment [25] Weekly Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of the government's consumption boosting policies and their expected positive impact on the recovery of domestic consumption trends in related sectors [28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing significant pressure on its performance in 2024, with a projected revenue of 56.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 20.5%, and a net profit of 1.95 billion yuan, down 11.95% year-on-year [1][3]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a weak market environment and rising gold prices, leading to a 24.7% drop in domestic gold jewelry consumption [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence through theme store layouts and upgrading retail store images, despite a net decrease in marketing outlets [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects a revenue of 56.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -20.5% [4]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at 1.95 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 11.95% compared to the previous year [4]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is estimated at 3.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to show a revenue of 4.21 billion yuan, down 55.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 170 million yuan, down 30.4% year-on-year [1]. Market Strategy - The company is actively developing new product lines themed around "heritage, celebration, and rebirth," aiming to capture new consumer growth points in the domestic market [3]. - The company plans to optimize its layout through various types of stores, enhancing brand positioning and consumer engagement [3].

行 业 研 究 行业周报 [Table_MainInfo] 加力支持以旧换新，关注扩大内需细分领域机会 | ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 | 分析师： | 袁艺博 | SAC NO： | 年 | 月 | 日 | S1150521120002 | 2025 | 3 | 10 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Author] | 证券分析师 | [Table_Summary] | 投资要点： | 袁艺博 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 行业要闻 | 022-23839135 | yuanyb@bhzq.com | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | （1）纸厂惊现千元涨价函，上一次还是两年前。 | [Tab ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry and textile apparel sectors, while recommending an "Overweight" rating for specific companies including Oppein Home, Sophia, Explorer, Semir Apparel, and Guibao Pet [7][30]. Core Insights - The European Union has made a preliminary anti-dumping ruling against Chinese decorative paper, imposing temporary anti-dumping duties ranging from 31.0% to 34.9% on involved companies [4][12]. - Adidas is strategically positioning itself in the Chinese sports market through a partnership with Tsinghua University, focusing on technology innovation and talent development in sports [12]. - The integration of AI models like DeepSeek by home appliance and furniture companies is expected to enhance their capabilities in customization, design, production, marketing, and customer service, thereby improving consumer experience [6][29]. Industry News - The light industry sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.42 percentage points from February 17 to February 21, with a decline of 0.42% compared to the index's increase of 1.00% [6][23]. - The textile and apparel sector also lagged behind the CSI 300 index, underperforming by 1.91 percentage points during the same period, with a decline of 0.91% [6][25]. - The report highlights the performance of specific companies, noting that the top gainers in the light industry included Shengtong Co. (32.00%) and QuSleep Technology (25.83%) [24]. Company Announcements - Ruierte reported a 13.81% year-on-year decline in net profit for 2024, despite a revenue increase of 8.23% [5][22]. - Pearl River Piano has entered a strategic partnership with Lehai Musical Instruments to establish a benchmark in the national musical instrument industry [6][22].

行 业 研 究 | 第1 海 证 学 | | --- | | Bohai Securities | [Table_MainInfo] 文化纸温和上涨可期，上海推动 IP、宠物消费发展 ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 推荐组合：欧派家居（603833）、索菲亚（002572）、探路者（300005）、 森马服饰（002563）、乖宝宠物（301498）。 风险提示 宏观经济波动；原材料成本上涨；新产能无法及时消化；大客户流失。 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 12 行业周报 | | 分析师： 袁艺博 | | | SAC NO： S1150521120002 | | | 2025 | 年 月 2 | 17 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | [Table_Summary] | | | | | | | | | | 袁艺博 | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | | | |  行业要 ...