Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: UR01 - 05 short the spread when the price is high [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot prices are mainly stable, with a slight increase in the futures market and improved spot trading, but downstream procurement remains cautious [2] - In the medium - to long - term, urea supply and demand are still relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity [2] - With the improvement of weather, agricultural demand for urea increases. Northeast compound fertilizer plants will gradually start production in late October, and attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in the Northeast [2] - Urea is still affected by export sentiment. September and October are export windows. In September, 1.37 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 million tons [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Figures include Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - contract basis, Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][8][13][16] 2. Urea Production - Figures cover urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [18][21] 3. Urea Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures include production cost, spot production profit, futures production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization [25][26][27][28] 4. Urea Foreign Market Prices and Export Profits - Figures involve urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and futures export profit [30][35][38][41] 5. Urea Downstream Capacity Utilization and Orders - Figures include compound fertilizer capacity utilization, melamine capacity utilization, and urea enterprise advance order days [54][49] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures consist of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, Hebei urea downstream manufacturers' raw material inventory days, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume [52][55][60] Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On October 22, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,621 yuan/ton (+12). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,540 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,540 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1,540 yuan/ton (-10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 81 yuan/ton (-12), in Henan was - 81 yuan/ton (-12), and in Jiangsu was - 81 yuan/ton (-22). Urea production profit was 10 yuan/ton (unchanged), and export profit was 992 yuan/ton (+10) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of October 22, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.67% (+0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.6302 million tons (+14,800 tons), and the port sample inventory was 446,000 tons (+31,000 tons) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of October 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 24.18% (-1.32%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 55.18% (-10.29%), and the advance order days of urea enterprises were 7.41 days (+0.70) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoint - Urea is currently undervalued, but the upward driving force is temporarily limited. The current strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the situation of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has stabilized after falling to a near - five - year low, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. Short - term upward driving force is insufficient due to large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream purchases are cautious. Future possible driving forces include the renovation of old chemical plants on the supply side and new export quotas [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On October 22, UR01 closed at 1621 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.75% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1691 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.54%; UR09 closed at 1725 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.35%. Domestic spot prices in most regions remained unchanged, except for Jiangsu, where it decreased by 10 yuan or 0.65% [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 9 yuan to - 151 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 3 yuan to - 70 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively. Downstream prices such as compound fertilizers (45%S), melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu also remained unchanged [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1621 yuan/ton, with a high of 1625 yuan/ton, a low of 1610 yuan/ton, a close of 1621 yuan/ton, a settlement price of 1617 yuan/ton, and a position of 312,046 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company acknowledges that weather conditions have impacted the autumn harvest in certain regions, which may affect the demand for fertilizers in the short term, but it remains optimistic about its operational performance and has implemented measures to mitigate seasonal fluctuations [1]. Group 1: Weather Impact and Operational Response - Due to weather conditions, the autumn harvest in parts of Shandong and Henan provinces has been affected, potentially altering the agricultural planting schedule and impacting fertilizer demand [1]. - The company has not identified any significant adverse factors affecting its operations despite the weather-related challenges [1]. - To address seasonal fluctuations, the company is optimizing its production, supply, and sales coordination, as well as inventory management, ensuring sufficient supply during peak seasons and reasonable inventory during off-peak periods [1]. Group 2: Product Diversification and Export Growth - The company is expanding its product categories and application scenarios beyond traditional agricultural fertilizers, focusing on economic crops and horticulture to smooth out seasonal performance fluctuations [1]. - The company has been actively exploring overseas markets, and its export business has shown stable growth this year [1].

Summary of Stanley's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Stanley - **Industry**: Fertilizer and Chemical Industry Key Financial Performance - **Revenue**: Approximately 9 billion CNY for the first three quarters, with a net profit of 815 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.71% [2][3] - **Q3 Performance**: Revenue of 2.899 billion CNY, up 31.4% year-on-year, and net profit of 208 million CNY, up 35.4% year-on-year [2][3] - **Cash Flow**: Improved operating cash flow with a net cash flow of 1.095 billion CNY in Q3, a 59% increase year-on-year [2][5] Segment Performance Compound Fertilizer - **Sales Impact**: Q3 compound fertilizer sales volume declined by approximately 7% due to extreme weather conditions, but profitability improved significantly through increased operational efficiency in the phosphate chemical segment [2][6] - **Price Stability**: Sales price for compound fertilizer remained stable at around 2,500 CNY [2][6] Phosphate Chemical Segment - **Production Recovery**: The phosphate chemical segment gradually returned to normal production levels, with the capacity of the Songzi New Materials Company reaching design levels [2][7] - **Export Strategy**: Focused on exporting granular monoammonium phosphate and industrial ammonium, with a high export volume within the industry. Export quotas are concentrated on phosphate ammonium due to national restrictions [2][7][12] Horticultural Fertilizer - **Growth Rate**: The horticultural fertilizer segment showed rapid growth, with online retail sales reaching 162 million CNY from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 83.5% [2][8] Market Conditions - **Weather Impact**: Extreme weather significantly affected the autumn market, with dealer purchase volumes decreasing to about 70% year-on-year and terminal retail volumes dropping by 20-30% [2][9] - **Future Outlook**: If weather conditions improve, there is potential for replenishment; however, continued rainy seasons may further impact autumn sowing and fertilization volumes [2][10] Industry Trends - **Concentration and Competition**: The compound fertilizer industry has a low concentration level, but aging agricultural workforce may lead to consolidation in planting, enhancing market share for leading companies. The top five companies are expected to capture 60-70% of the market share [2][4][18] - **Long-term Competitiveness**: Large phosphate chemical enterprises are expected to be more competitive due to product diversification and better resource matching, while smaller firms may face greater challenges [2][15] Regional Insights Xinjiang Region - **Market Growth**: Significant agricultural development in Xinjiang due to increased arable land and improved irrigation facilities. The company has established a compound fertilizer base in southern Xinjiang, maintaining good operational rates [2][19] - **Sales Strategy**: High-margin products account for over 60% of total sales, with stable sales in new compound fertilizers for economic fruits and vegetables [2][20][21] Challenges and Future Expectations - **Q4 Sales Pressure**: Anticipated sales pressure in Q4, influenced by weather conditions and potential delays in sales due to rainfall. The company may adjust sales targets based on October and early November performance [2][23][24] - **Export Policies**: Uncertainty remains regarding nitrogen and potassium fertilizer exports due to national policies, with limited demand expected from South America and Southeast Asia until early next year [2][25] Conclusion - **Overall Sentiment**: The company experienced lower-than-expected compound fertilizer sales in Q3 due to weather impacts, but the phosphate chemical segment showed improved profitability. The industry is undergoing significant adjustments, with large enterprises benefiting from market consolidation, indicating a positive long-term outlook for the company [2][27]

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is currently stable but is expected to continue weak performance in the short term due to limited supportive factors and cautious trading behavior [1] Market Conditions - As of October 22, the urea market is operating steadily, influenced by expectations from industry conferences, with most companies maintaining stable pricing [1] - There is some demand present; however, the support for price increases is limited, leading to cautious trading with downstream buyers purchasing only as needed [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is characterized by a strong supply and weak demand, resulting in a cautious market sentiment [1] - Without any policy disruptions, there are no optimistic expectations for price increases, as upstream pricing adjusts according to market sentiment while downstream buyers remain cautious [1] Future Outlook - The internal demand has not been fully released, and the oversupply issue remains unresolved, with no immediate drivers for price rebounds [1] - Short-term fluctuations are anticipated, with future attention needed on industry conferences, futures market sentiment, and reserve demand [1]

尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货偏强震荡，最终报收 1621（+10/+0.62%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价大稳小动，成交一般，河南出厂报 1500-1510 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1490-1500 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1540-1550 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1460-1500 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1500-1510 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1400-1470 元/吨。 大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 10 月 22 日 【重要资讯】 【尿素】10 月 22 日，尿素行业日产 18.60 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.15 万吨(修正： 上一工作日日产 18.45 万吨）；较去年同期减少 0.65 万吨；今日开工率 79.49%，较去年 同期 86.35%下降 6.86%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价下跌，成交平平。山东地区 主流出厂报价领跌，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率略有提升，原料库存充裕， 成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单成交 乏力，待发消耗，预计出厂报价弱稳为主； ...

Charles Zhuang 庄怀超 SFC CE: BTE209 微信: zhuangcharles; 电话: (852) 9748 7114; 22 Oct 2025 环球富盛理财有限公司 史丹利 Stanley Agriculture Group (002588.CH) 复合肥龙头企业，磷化工新项目经营转好 Leading compound fertilizer enterprise & Phosphorus chemical new project operation improves 最新动态 动向解读 ➢ 公司作为复合肥龙头企业，市占率提升趋势将延续。未来 1-2 年，公司市占率有望进一步提高，因中 小企业受原材料波动应对能力弱、渠道下沉不足、环保成本上升等影响持续退出，而公司通过产能布 局、渠道深耕和产品优势抢占份额。复合肥中小企业盈利普遍较差，近年退出明显，主要原因包括原 材料价格剧烈波动时中小企业采购和库存管理能力不足、渠道下沉不足导致终端价格管控混乱、保价 政策导致利润亏损，以及环保、安全合规成本上升挤压其生存空间。 策略建议 ➢ 盈利预测。我们给予公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润为 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-10-22 下游采购依旧谨慎 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-21，尿素主力收盘1609元/吨（+9）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1540 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1540元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1550元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-69 元/吨（-19）；河南基差：-69元/吨（-19）；江苏基差：-59元/吨（-19）；尿素生产利润10元/吨（-10），出口利润982 元/吨（-1）。 供应端：截至2025-10-21，企业产能利用率79.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为161.54 万吨（+17.15），港口样 本库存量为44.60 万吨（+3.10）。 需求端：截至2025-10-21，复合肥产能利用率24.18%（-1.32%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为55.18%（-10.29%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（-0.29）。 尿素现货低价成交好转，部分厂家小幅上调报价后成交降温，再次小幅下调报价，伴随盘面小幅上涨，现货成交 好转，但下游采购依旧谨慎。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进行中，复合肥秋季肥生产收尾，开工 ...

Group 1: Hot News - European leaders issued a joint statement supporting a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict through negotiations, endorsing Trump's proposal of an immediate ceasefire and using the current contact line as the starting point for talks, and reaffirming that international borders should not be changed by force [2] - From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 1.45% month-on-month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.24% month-on-month, and production increased by 2.71% month-on-month [2] - In 2026, the total tariff-rate quota for fertilizer imports in China is 13.65 million tons, including 3.3 million tons of urea [2] - Rio Tinto has stockpiled about 2 million tons of high-grade iron ore at the Simandou project in Guinea and will ship it in mid - November. WCS, which operates another Simandou iron mine, started hoarding ore in September. Simandou is expected to produce 120 million tons of iron ore annually at full capacity [2] - The zinc market on the London Metal Exchange (LME) is facing its worst supply squeeze in decades, with the premium of spot zinc over three - month futures soaring to $323 per ton, the highest since at least 1997 [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, silver, crude oil, and PP [4] - In the holiday overseas market, the night - session price changes of commodity futures main contracts show that non - metallic building materials rose 2.96%, precious metals 31.40%, oilseeds and oils 10.12%, soft commodities 2.71%, non - ferrous metals 20.62%, coal, coke, and steel ore 13.02%, energy 3.05%, chemicals 11.31%, grains 1.15%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.67% [4] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal, coke, and steel ore, Wind non - ferrous metals, Wind commodity composites, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds and oils, Wind precious metals, and Wind non - metallic building materials [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36%, the SSE 50 rose 1.09%, the CSI 300 rose 1.53%, the CSI 500 rose 1.64%, the S&P 500 was flat, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.65%, the German DAX rose 0.29%, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.27%, and the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.25% [6] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.05%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.05%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.04% [6] - In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index fell 0.36%, WTI crude oil rose 0.96%, London spot gold fell 5.31%, LME copper fell 0.89%, and the Wind commodity index rose 1.99% [6] - In other categories, the US dollar index rose 0.35%, and the CBOE volatility index was flat [6]

Macro Economy - The Ministry of Commerce held a video meeting discussing export controls and the EU's anti-subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles, with both sides expressing a willingness to enhance communication on semiconductor issues [4] - China's GDP growth averaged 5.5% during the first four years of the 14th Five-Year Plan, showcasing resilience and potential despite external challenges [4] - Domestic tourism saw 4.998 billion trips in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, with total spending reaching 4.85 trillion yuan, up 11.5% [4] Real Estate Dynamics - The Guangzhou Real Estate Agency issued a statement urging real estate agents to improve service quality and resist commission-based practices that harm the industry's reputation [6] - In September, the real estate sector raised 56.1 billion yuan in bond financing, a 31% year-on-year increase, with credit bonds accounting for 57.4% of the total [6] - Shenzhen plans to launch 39 new residential projects in Q4, with a total supply area of approximately 1.6 million square meters, indicating a significant increase compared to Q3 [6] Stock Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36% to 3916.33 points, with a total market turnover of 1.87 trillion yuan, reflecting a broad-based rally [7] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.65%, with significant gains in the insurance and technology sectors, while new consumption concepts showed signs of adjustment [7] - As of October 21, the total market capitalization of companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange was 863.865 billion yuan [8] Company News - Bubble Mart reported a 245%-250% year-on-year increase in overall revenue for Q3, with domestic revenue up 185%-190% and overseas revenue up 365%-370% [18] - CATL is accelerating the production of its 587Ah battery, aiming to increase its market share in the future [19] - Yushutech launched a four-legged robot training platform aimed at enhancing engineering practice capabilities for students [19]