以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 | 金狮 | CFR | 840 | 6800 | -113.73 | | | 雄狮 | CFR | 820 | 5900 | -900.79 | | 智利 | 银星 | CFR信用证 90天 | 825 | 6300 | -491.52 | 注：上一日汇率 - 7.21 纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/16 SP主力合约收盘价： 5386.00 | 日期 | 2025/05/15 | 2025/05/14 | 2025/05/13 | 2025/05/12 | 2025/05/09 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5386.00 | 5378.00 | 5276.00 | 5256.00 | 5164.00 | | 折美元价 | 652.20 | 651.66 | 639.77 | 636.25 | 622.12 | | 距上 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The inventory cycle of the entire industrial sector continues in the "active restocking" phase. Although the inventory growth rate of the entire industrial sector remained flat compared to last month, the largest number of industries, 16 in total, are in the "active restocking" state, so it is determined that the industry inventory cycle is in the "active restocking" state [16][17]. Summary by Directory 1. Inventory Cycle Overview - In March 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of finished - product inventories of industrial enterprises remained flat at 4.2% compared to last month [9][10]. - The inventory cycle of the entire industrial sector continues in the "active restocking" state [16][17]. 2. Inventory Cycle Overview (by Industry) - **Upstream Industry**: The upstream industry (mining, accounting for only 2% of total inventory) has returned to the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [18]. - **Mid - stream Industry**: The mid - stream industry (mid - upstream manufacturing, accounting for 54% of total inventory) is in the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [19]. - **Downstream Industry**: The downstream industry (downstream manufacturing and utilities, accounting for 43% of total inventory) has returned to the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [20]. - **Specific Industries**: - Electronics is in the "passive destocking" state in March 2025 [21]. - Electrical machinery is in the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [21]. - Chemicals is in the "passive restocking" state in March 2025 [23]. - Paper is in the "passive destocking" state in March 2025 [23]. - Automobiles is in the "active destocking" state in March 2025 [28]. - Non - ferrous metals is in the "passive restocking" state in March 2025 [28]. - Instrumentation is in the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [33]. - General equipment is in the "passive destocking" state in March 2025 [33].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the light industry, particularly in personal care and jewelry sectors, with several companies exceeding expectations in Q1 2025 [3][5][6]. Core Insights - The light industry shows a steady performance, with essential consumer goods outperforming overall trends. Companies like Baiya Co., Haoyue Care, and Chaohongji have reported better-than-expected results in Q1 2025 [3][5][6]. - The two-wheeler and motorcycle sectors are experiencing unexpected growth driven by new national standards and government subsidies, with companies like Ninebot and Chunfeng Power also exceeding expectations in Q1 2025 [3][5][12]. - Export demand remains strong, with product structure improvements and favorable exchange rates supporting profitability for companies like Jiangxin Home and Jiayi Co. in Q1 2025 [3][5][20]. - The home furnishing sector is benefiting from government subsidies, leading to a reduction in revenue decline, with leading companies like Kuka Home and Oppein showing slightly better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025 [3][5][20]. - The packaging industry maintains a stable structure, with leading companies increasing their market share, while metal packaging profitability is slightly under pressure [3][5][20]. - The paper industry has seen a continued decline in profitability in H2 2024, but Q1 2025 shows signs of recovery, with companies like Sun Paper benefiting from integrated supply chain advantages [3][5][20]. Summary by Sections Light Industry - Revenue recovery is evident in Q1 2025, with essential consumer goods showing stronger growth compared to optional and mass consumer goods. The revenue growth rates for essential consumer goods were 20.4% in Q1 2025, while mass consumer goods showed a decline of 0.9% [6][7][10]. - Profitability remains weaker than revenue growth, with net profits for essential consumer goods declining by 49.8% in Q3 2024, but showing a slight recovery of 1.5% in Q1 2025 [7][11]. Two-Wheeler & Motorcycle - The domestic two-wheeler market is benefiting from a transition to new national standards, with revenue growth rates of 50.9% in Q1 2025. Profit margins are improving due to product upgrades and reduced price competition [12][13][14]. - Export performance for motorcycles is also strong, with revenue growth of 32.2% in Q1 2025, driven by seasonal demand and product upgrades [14][19]. Exports - Export demand continues to be robust, with key categories like fitness equipment and insulated cups showing double-digit growth. Companies like Jiayi Co. and Hars have reported significant revenue increases of 67% and 22% respectively in Q1 2025 [20][23]. - The exchange rate has positively impacted export performance, with the USD/CNY exchange rate showing a slight depreciation, benefiting exporters [20][23]. Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is experiencing a narrowing of revenue decline due to government subsidies, with leading companies like Kuka Home and Oppein showing slight improvements in Q1 2025 [20][23]. Packaging - The packaging industry remains stable, with leading companies increasing their market share. However, profitability in metal packaging is facing slight pressure due to competitive pricing [20][23]. Paper Industry - The paper industry has faced declining profitability, but Q1 2025 shows signs of recovery, with companies like Sun Paper reporting improved performance due to supply chain advantages [20][23].

证券代码：000488、200488 证券简称：ST 晨鸣、ST 晨鸣 B 山东晨鸣纸业集团股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-002 投资者关系活动类 别 □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 ☑业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观 □电话会议 参与单位名称及人 员姓名 参与 2025 年山东辖区上市公司投资者网上集体接待日 时间 2025 年 5 月 15 日 15:00—16:30 地点 全景网·投资者关系互动平台（http://ir.p5w.net） 形式 网络文字交流 上市公司接待人员 执行董事兼总经理 李伟先先生； 财务总监 董连明先生； 董事会秘书 袁西坤先生； 证券投资部、财务资本管理中心相关工作人员。 交流内容及具体问 答记录 公司于 2025 年 5 月 15 日 15:00—16:30，通过"全景网·投 资者关系互动平台"（http://ir.p5w.net）参与 2025 年山东辖区 上市公司投资者网上集体接待日，投资者关注的主要问题如 下： 1、您好！请问你们何时全面复工复产，目前复工率多少？ 战投资金引入到什么进度，欠的社会非银机构的资金何时还， 比 ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/05/15 SP主力合约收盘价： 5378.00 | 日期 | 2025/05/14 | 2025/05/13 | 2025/05/12 | 2025/05/09 | 2025/05/08 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5378.00 | 5276.00 | 5256.00 | 5164.00 | 5148.00 | | 折美元价 | 651.66 | 639.77 | 636.25 | 622.12 | 621.08 | | 距上一日涨跌 | 1.93328% | 0.38052% | 1.78156% | 0.31080% | 0.19463% | | 山东银星基差 | 922 | 1024 | 984 | 1046 | 1062 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 922 | 999 | 969 | 1036 | 1052 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of 1.893 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of 176 million in 2024, with year-on-year changes of +1% for revenue and -3% for net profit [2][4] - In Q4 2024, the company is projected to generate operating revenue of 496.3 million, with a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, down 90% year-on-year [2][4] - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates operating revenue of 456.4 million, with net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 47% year-on-year [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total sales volume of 4.56 million tons, a 6% increase year-on-year, with an average gross profit per ton of 398 RMB, a decrease of approximately 69 RMB [9] - The revenue breakdown includes: - White cardboard revenue of 1.1542 billion, with a sales volume of 2.9 million tons, and an average price of 3987 RMB/ton [9] - Cultural paper revenue of 474.1 million, with a sales volume of 980,000 tons, and an average price of 4848 RMB/ton [9] - Boxboard revenue of 163 million, with a sales volume of 530,000 tons, and an average price of 3098 RMB/ton [9] - Gypsum face paper revenue of 59.5 million, with a sales volume of 160,000 tons, and an average price of 3654 RMB/ton [9] Future Outlook - The company expects continuous growth in production and sales, with demand recovery likely to drive paper prices and profitability upward [9] - The overseas sales revenue is projected to see significant growth, with export revenue accounting for 16% of total sales, effectively hedging against domestic cyclical risks [9] - The company plans to continue developing differentiated products and implementing digital transformation to enhance market responsiveness [9]

【基本面跟踪】 表 1：基本面数据(元/吨) | 市 场 | 区 域 | 纸 种 | 2025/5/14 | 2025/5/13 | 环 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货市场 | 山东市场 | 70g天 阳 | 5025 | 5025 | 0 0 | | | | 70g晨鸣云镜 | 5250 | 5250 | | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 5300 | 5300 | 0 | | | 广东市场 | 70g天 阳 | 4950 | 4950 | 0 0 | | | | 70g晨鸣云豹 | 5100 | 5100 | | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 5150 | 5150 | 0 | | | 税 前 | 含税收入 | 5238 | 5250 | -13 | | | | 含税成本 | 5133 | 5129 | 5 | | 成本利润 | | 税前毛利 | 104 | 121 | -17 | | | 税 后 | 不含税收入 不含税成本 | 4635 4715 | 4646 4711 | -11 4 | | | | 税后毛利 | -80 | -65 | ...

纸浆早报 美元价格以及人民币价格均采用卓创数据，以13%增值税计算 | 日期 | | | 全国均价 | | | | 山东地区均价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 针叶浆 | 阔叶浆 | 本色浆 | 化机浆 | 针叶浆 | 阔叶浆 | 本色浆 | 化机浆 | | 2025/05/07 | 6073.75 | 4810.75 | 5415.00 | 3686.25 | 6245.00 | 4775.00 | 5400.00 | 3600.00 | | 2025/05/08 | 6073.75 | 4810.75 | 5415.00 | 3686.25 | 6245.00 | 4775.00 | 5400.00 | 3600.00 | | 2025/05/09 | 6073.75 | 4810.75 | 5415.00 | 3686.25 | 6245.00 | 4775.00 | 5400.00 | 3600.00 | | 2025/05/12 | 6073.75 | 4810.75 | 5415.00 | 3686. ...

木浆成本下行，供需宽松，双胶纸价格承压 银河化工 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 【综合分析】 基本情况①价格：70g双胶纸企业含税均价为5128.6元/吨，环比降幅3.0%。② 供应端分化：部分纸机转产情况存在，且停产企业暂未恢 复正常生产，新增装置生产暂未放量。需求端疲弱：出版招标订单释放有限，零星低价压制市场预期③成本：针叶浆期货盘面止跌企稳， 但周均价环比仍下跌；阔叶浆价格持续承压下探，贸易商报价混乱。 【逻辑】 双胶纸：供应：行业盈利水平仍较低，工厂转产情况存在，市场供应趋稳。需求：秋季出版订单释放进度缓慢，社会面订单仍显不振，整 体终端消费跟进不及预期，下游印厂开工水平不高，用户原纸库存消耗缓慢，无明显大量囤库意愿。成本：国内港口库存仍处于高位，叠 加进口浆现货市场货源充裕，市场对供应过剩担忧加剧，木浆价格整体趋弱。 【策略】 胶版印刷纸预期下周偏弱调整。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 目录 综合分析与交易策略 第一部分 综合分 ...