纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/29 SP主力合约收盘价： 5374.00 | 日期 | 2026/01/28 | 2026/01/27 | 2026/01/26 | 2026/01/23 | 2026/01/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5374.00 | 5342.00 | 5374.00 | 5398.00 | 5380.00 | | 折美元价 | 675.82 | 670.56 | 674.67 | 677.04 | 674.89 | | 距上一日涨跌 | 0.59903% | -0.59546% | -0.44461% | 0.33457% | 0.37313% | | 山东银星基差 | 26 | 58 | 26 | 12 | 30 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 26 | 58 | 26 | 12 | 30 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 ...

[Table_StockAndRank] 玖龙纸业(2689.HK) 投资评级 上次评级 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 李晨 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525060001 邮箱：lichen1@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_Title] 玖龙纸业：盈利改善超预期，浆纸协同优势放 大 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 1 月 29 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] FY26H1 业绩预告（截至 25 年 12 月 31 日的六个月）。公 司预计此期间盈利为 21.5-22.5 亿元（同比+216.0%~230.7%），剔除永续 资本证券持有人应占盈利 2.01 亿元后，归母净利润为 19.5-20.5 亿元（同 比 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent successful economic cooperation between China and Finland, marked by the signing of a memorandum to strengthen collaboration in innovation and the hosting of the sixth meeting of the China-Finland Innovation Enterprise Cooperation Committee [3] - During the visit of Finnish Prime Minister Orpo to China, over 50 companies from both countries engaged in discussions on cooperation in innovation, green technology, and digital sectors, resulting in multiple business agreements in areas such as mining machinery, healthcare, papermaking, and green construction [3] - Finnish companies expressed optimism about China's economic development and market potential, indicating a commitment to long-term investment in China [3] Group 2 - The article mentions that the U.S. Trade Representative indicated a potential new round of U.S.-China economic negotiations could begin ahead of a leaders' meeting scheduled for April [4] - China has engaged in five rounds of economic consultations with the U.S. under the strategic guidance of the two countries' leaders, achieving positive outcomes that demonstrate the effectiveness of dialogue in resolving economic differences [4] - China is committed to maintaining communication and cooperation with the U.S. to promote stable and sustainable development of bilateral economic relations [4]

Group 1 - The paper sector experienced a slight increase of 0.02% on January 29, with Yueyang Lin Paper leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down by 0.3% [1] - Key stocks in the paper sector showed varied performance, with Yueyang Lin Paper rising by 4.76% to a closing price of 5.28, and other notable stocks like Kain Co. and ST Chenming also showing positive gains [1] Group 2 - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 108 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 115 million yuan [2] - The trading volume and turnover for key stocks varied, with Kain Co. having a significant net inflow from retail investors despite an overall negative trend in major funds [3] - Individual stock performances indicated mixed results in fund flows, with some stocks like Kain Co. and Yibin Paper attracting positive retail interest, while others faced outflows [3]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has set a target price of HKD 6 for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (02689) and maintains a "Market Perform" rating [1] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 216% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, reaching between RMB 2.15 billion and RMB 2.25 billion, slightly above Morgan Stanley's forecast of RMB 2 billion [1] - The overall performance for the full year 2026 is anticipated to be stable, despite the first half being a traditional off-peak season for paper consumption, which may lead to slight price corrections [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley believes that the company's optimized product structure and improved cost performance will help mitigate the impact of reduced demand during the off-peak season, contributing to stable annual profits [1]

花旗发布研报，将理文造纸的投资评级由"沽售"上调至"买入"，目标价从2.4港元上调至4.2港元。此调 整主要基于对造纸行业盈利周期已触底，并逐步改善的判断，理文造纸现价相当于预测市盈率8倍，提 供4.2%股息，估值具备吸引力。 报告指，虽然理文造纸自身的盈利增长幅度可能不及同业玖龙纸业，但玖龙纸业近期发布的盈利预警传 递出一个关键信号，造纸行业的整体盈利能力在2025年下半年预计不会较上半年进一步恶化。花旗分析 师据此认为，行业盈利最艰难的时期可能已经过去，未来将迎来温和改善。 相关事件 大行评级｜花旗：造纸行业盈利周期已触底，将理文造纸评级升至"买入" 大行评级｜美银：上调理文 造纸目标价至3.2港元 重申"买入"评级 ...

Company Overview - Linping Development Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, production, and sales of corrugated paper and boxboard products, recognized as a high-tech enterprise with independent R&D capabilities [2] - The company has evolved into a resource comprehensive utilization enterprise integrating waste paper recycling, cogeneration, and green papermaking [2] IPO Details - On January 22, Linping Development disclosed its prospectus, planning to issue 18.8537 million shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, accounting for 25% of the total shares post-issue [2] - The total share capital after the issuance will be 75.4148 million shares, with all shares being newly issued and no existing shareholder sales involved [2] - Online subscription for the IPO is scheduled for January 30 [2] Shareholding Structure - As of the prospectus signing date, the actual controller, Li Jianshe, directly holds 84.86% of the shares and indirectly controls an additional 3.54% through a partnership, totaling 88.40% voting rights [4] - Li Jianshe has faced issues regarding dual nationality, having previously held a passport from Guinea-Bissau, but has since clarified his status and is confirmed to hold only Chinese nationality [5] Financial Performance - Linping Development's revenue for the reporting period (2022 to June 2025) was 287.89 million yuan, 279.98 million yuan, 248.51 million yuan, and 122.38 million yuan, with net profits of 15.45 million yuan, 21.16 million yuan, 15.29 million yuan, and 9.14 million yuan, indicating a decline in revenue and fluctuating net profits [7] - The company has experienced a significant drop in prices for corrugated paper and boxboard due to increased imports and a slowdown in domestic demand, leading to performance volatility in 2023 and 2024 [7] Tax Benefits - Linping Development benefits from substantial tax incentives, which accounted for a significant portion of its net profits during the reporting period, with tax benefits of 9.74 million yuan, 14.53 million yuan, 12.32 million yuan, and 5.60 million yuan, representing 63.02%, 68.65%, 80.58%, and 61.23% of net profits respectively [8] Operational Challenges - The company faces challenges in the highly competitive corrugated paper and boxboard market, characterized by low market concentration and significant price competition [7] - Transportation costs are a notable factor in the company's operations, with freight costs constituting a considerable portion of the overall expenses, and discrepancies in reported freight data have raised concerns during the IPO inquiry process [8][9]

从业务层面看，报告认为理文造纸的盈利复苏将主要驱动于箱板纸和卫生纸业务的利润率回升。花旗预 计，受益于这两大主营产品利润率的强劲反弹，理文造纸的毛利率将呈现与同行相似的改善趋势：预计 2025年下半年毛利率将同比显著扩张4.3个百分点，并较上半年扩张1.1个百分点。同时，销售额也有望 恢复增长，预计2025年下半年销售额将同比上升5.9%，至约142.88亿港元，扭转上半年因产品均价下跌 而录得的跌幅。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，将理文造纸(02314)的投资评级由"沽售"上调至"买入"，目标价更 大幅调升75%，从原先的2.4港元上调至4.2港元。此调整主要基于对造纸行业盈利周期已触底，并逐步 改善的判断，理文造纸现价相当于预测市盈率8倍，提供4.2%股息，估值具备吸引力。 报告指出，虽然理文造纸自身的盈利增长幅度可能不及同业玖龙纸业(02689)，但玖龙纸业近期发布的 盈利预警传递出一个关键信号，造纸行业的整体盈利能力在2025年下半年预计不会较上半年进一步恶 化。花旗分析师据此认为，行业盈利最艰难的时期可能已经过去，未来将迎来温和改善。 报告亦提及，理文造纸预计将于2026年3月初公布2025 ...

花旗发布研报称，将理文造纸(02314)的投资评级由"沽售"上调至"买入"，目标价更大幅调升75%，从原 先的2.4港元上调至4.2港元。此调整主要基于对造纸行业盈利周期已触底，并逐步改善的判断，理文造 纸现价相当于预测市盈率8倍，提供4.2%股息，估值具备吸引力。 从业务层面看，报告认为理文造纸的盈利复苏将主要驱动于箱板纸和卫生纸业务的利润率回升。花旗预 计，受益于这两大主营产品利润率的强劲反弹，理文造纸的毛利率将呈现与同行相似的改善趋势：预计 2025年下半年毛利率将同比显著扩张4.3个百分点，并较上半年扩张1.1个百分点。同时，销售额也有望 恢复增长，预计2025年下半年销售额将同比上升5.9%，至约142.88亿港元，扭转上半年因产品均价下跌 而录得的跌幅。 报告亦提及，理文造纸预计将于2026年3月初公布2025年全年业绩，这可能成为股价近期的正面催化 剂。不过，花旗在造纸板块中的首选仍是玖龙纸业，因其拥有更为强大的上下游垂直整合能力，能更有 效地控制成本。 报告指出，虽然理文造纸自身的盈利增长幅度可能不及同业玖龙纸业(02689)，但玖龙纸业近期发布的 盈利预警传递出一个关键信号，造纸行业的整体盈 ...

摩根士丹利发表研报指，玖龙纸业预计2026年上半年净利润将按年增216%至231%，达到21.5亿至22.5 亿元，略高于该行预测的20亿元，总体大致符合预期。该行预测，集团2026全年业绩稳健，上半年对造 纸商而言是传统消费淡季，期间或意味着纸价会有小幅修正。但大摩认为集团优化的产品结构及更佳的 成本表现，应能缓冲消费淡季需求放缓的影响，从而为集团带来全年盈利稳健。大摩予玖龙纸业目标价 6港元，评级"与大市同步"。 ...