"反内卷"预期走弱带动情绪退坡， 投机头寸建议观望，抓住套保机会 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 锰硅周报 2025/08/02 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 06 图形走势 产业链示意图 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 ◆ 天津6517锰硅现货市场报价5900元/吨，环比上周-110元/吨；期货主力（SM509）收盘报5962元/吨，环比上周-452元/吨；基差128元/吨， 环比上周+342元/吨，基差率2.12%，处于历史统计值中性水平。 ◆ 利润：锰硅测算即期利润（不含折旧等费用）维持低位，内蒙-338元/吨，环比上周-74元/吨；宁夏-317元/吨，环比上周-194元/吨；广西- 531元/吨，环比上周-57元/吨。（利润为测算值，仅供参考） ◆ 成本：测算内蒙锰硅即期成本（不含折旧等费用)在6058元/吨，环比上周+94元/吨；宁夏在6017元/吨，环比上周+94元/吨；广西在6331元/ 吨，环比 ...

Mergers and Acquisitions - Sanan Optoelectronics plans to acquire 100% equity of Lumileds Holding B.V. in collaboration with foreign investor Inari Amertron Berhad for a cash consideration of $239 million [1] - Wehua New Materials intends to acquire controlling stake in Jiangsu Heyutai Chemical Co., with the specific acquisition ratio to be negotiated [2] - Cixing Co. has terminated its plan to acquire 75% of Shunyi Technology due to disagreements on commercial terms with some counterparties [3] Performance Disclosure - Zangge Mining reported a 38.80% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 1.678 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.74% [4] - Beijing Culture recorded a net loss of 233 million yuan for the first half of 2025, despite a significant revenue increase of 1944.24% to 158 million yuan [5] - Rongbai Technology reported a net loss of 68.39 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue of 6.248 billion yuan, down 9.28% year-on-year [6] Shareholding Changes - Yuxin Technology's controlling shareholder, Yuqin Hongtai, plans to reduce its stake by up to 1.50%, amounting to a maximum of 10.56 million shares [7] - Henghua Technology's shareholder, Chen Xianlong, intends to reduce his stake by up to 1.50%, equating to a maximum of 9 million shares [8] - Kangpeng Technology's shareholders plan to collectively reduce their stake by up to 5.89% of the company's total equity [9]

Core Insights - The announcement by President Trump to exclude refined copper from a 50% import tariff led to a significant price drop in COMEX copper, with prices falling over 20% within an hour of the announcement [1] - The copper market experienced its second circuit breaker activation in less than a month, indicating high volatility and market sensitivity to tariff announcements [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - COMEX copper prices plummeted by 22% to $4.5030 per pound, equivalent to $9,927 per ton, triggering a rapid liquidation of long positions [1] - The trading halt occurred for two minutes due to the dynamic circuit breaker mechanism, which is activated when price fluctuations exceed ±10% within a rolling 60-minute window [2] Group 2: Tariff Implications - The White House announced that starting August 1, a 50% tariff will be imposed on various imported copper products, while raw copper inputs and scrap copper will be exempt from these tariffs [1] - The premium of COMEX copper over the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark has narrowed significantly from approximately $3,000 per ton to around $10 per ton, reflecting changes in market dynamics since the tariff proposal [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Chaoyang Jinda Titanium Industry Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Jintai Co."), has received a second round inquiry letter from the Beijing Stock Exchange regarding its application for public stock issuance and listing, raising concerns about revenue verification, performance decline risks, and other operational aspects [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Jintai Co. is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of sponge titanium series products, positioning itself as a high-tech enterprise [1] - The company has over a decade of experience in high-end sponge titanium products and has established itself as a leading domestic and internationally recognized production base in this sector [1] - Jintai Co. is a core member of the titanium industry supply chain in China [1] Group 2: Regulatory Concerns - The inquiry letter from the Beijing Stock Exchange addresses several issues, including the sufficiency of revenue verification and risks associated with declining performance [1] - Additional concerns include the verification of significant fixed asset additions, accuracy of cost accounting, and the lack of a hazardous chemical safety production license [1] - The company is also required to clarify its capacity utilization and the impact of fixed asset depreciation, as well as the accuracy of research and development expense accounting and the differences in gross margin compared to peer companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper products by the U.S. has led to a significant drop in copper prices, with COMEX copper falling over 20% on July 30, 2023, as market expectations shifted following the tariff implementation [1][2]. Tariff Impact - The U.S. government, under President Trump, has officially imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper derivatives starting August 1, 2023, while excluding copper input materials and scrap from this tariff [2][3]. - The market had previously reacted to the tariff expectations, driving COMEX copper prices to nearly $6 per pound, but the actual announcement led to a substantial price correction [2][4]. Market Reactions - Following the tariff announcement, COMEX copper experienced a significant price drop, while London copper prices remained relatively stable, indicating a divergence in market reactions [2][4]. - Analysts expect that the copper market will return to a more rational pricing structure, especially if electrolytic copper is excluded from the tariff, which would eliminate arbitrage opportunities [3][4]. Additional Negative Factors - Rising copper inventories in the U.S. have contributed to the price decline, with COMEX copper inventories reaching their highest level since 2004, having more than doubled this year [4]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, driven by better-than-expected economic data, have also negatively impacted copper prices [4]. Future Price Outlook - Despite the recent downturn, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about copper prices for the remainder of the year, with expectations for LME copper prices to average $9,500 per ton by Q4 2025, reflecting a 2.7% increase from previous forecasts [5][6]. - Concerns over declining copper ore grades and production levels continue to support copper prices, with significant reductions in production forecasts from major companies like Glencore [6].

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on certain imported copper products, effective August 1, which includes semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives [1][3] - The announcement led to a significant drop in copper prices, with New York copper prices falling over 18% to $4.60 per pound, and major copper producers Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper saw declines of approximately 10% and 6% respectively [1][3] - The new regulations are expected to disrupt global copper trade flows, as refined copper (electrolytic copper) is excluded from the tariff list, which may lead to a re-export of large quantities of copper previously shipped to the U.S. [4][5] Group 2 - Copper is the third most consumed metal globally, following iron and aluminum, with about half of the copper used in the U.S. being imported, primarily from Chile [5]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the first half of the year, global iron ore shipments decreased by 0.96% year-on-year. Australian and Brazilian shipments were affected by weather in Q1 and increased in Q2. Non-Australian and non-Brazilian shipments decreased significantly year-on-year, and non-mainstream shipments were more affected by ore prices compared to mainstream shipments from Australia and Brazil [2]. - It is expected that the output and shipments of the four major mines will increase in the second half of the year. Rio Tinto and Vale's output/shipments in the first half of the year did not reach half of their guidance targets, while FMG and BHP raised their guidance targets for fiscal year 2026 [2]. - The main contradiction in the black sector lies in the terminal demand for steel, which depends on policy support. The bargaining power of imported iron ore is relatively strong. It is expected that the downside space for iron ore in the second half of the year is limited, and the upside space depends on the trend of steel prices [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron ore shipments in the first half of the year - In H1 2025, the cumulative global iron ore shipments were 778 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.96%. Affected by cyclones in Australia and rainfall in Brazil in Q1, the cumulative shipments were 362 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39%. In Q2, shipments increased to make up for the previous shortfall and due to the end - of - quarter rush by Australian mines [3]. - From the source of shipments, the total shipments from Australia and Brazil in H1 were 648 million tons, accounting for 83% of global shipments, with a year-on-year increase of 0.84%. Non-Australian and non-Brazilian shipments were only 130 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.09%. Iron ore prices have a greater impact on non-Australian and non-Brazilian shipments, and Australian and Brazilian shipments show obvious seasonal patterns [5]. 2. Expected increase in shipments of the four major mines in the second half of the year 2.1 Supply summary in the first half of the year - According to SteelHome data, the cumulative shipments of the four major mines in H1 2025 were 529 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.29%. Structurally, Rio Tinto and BHP's shipments decreased, FMG's shipments increased significantly, and Vale's shipments increased steadily [6]. - Rio Tinto's 2025 production guidance target remained unchanged. Affected by cyclones and capacity replacement in Q1, its H1 shipments decreased by 5% year-on-year. The Pilbara mine achieved its highest Q2 output since 2018, and the first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project was advanced to around November 2025. The品位 of PB mixed ore decreased [8][11]. - FMG's Q2 output and shipments increased significantly quarter-on-quarter. In fiscal year 2025, it shipped 198 million tons of iron ore, a year-on-year increase of 4%, achieving its fiscal year target. It raised its 2026 fiscal year guidance target by 5 million tons to 195 - 205 million tons [12][13]. - BHP's Q2 2025 output was 77 million tons, and its fiscal year 2025 output was 290 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1%. It raised its 2026 fiscal year guidance target by 2 million tons. It increased shipments in Q2 by optimizing operations [14][15]. - Vale's Q2 output was 83.6 million tons, a significant increase, mainly due to the strong performance of the Southeast and Northern systems. It adjusted its 2025 iron ore pellet target output downwards by 7 million tons due to weak demand [16][18]. 2.2 Supply outlook in the second half of the year - It is expected that the iron ore shipments of the four major mines will increase in the second half of the year. Rio Tinto is expected to speed up production and shipments, with the Xipo and Simandou projects as key sources of growth. FMG is expected to have some room for shipment growth. BHP's output and shipments are expected to remain sufficient. Vale's production is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year [19]. 3. Fundamental analysis 3.1 Domestic ore supply - In H1 2025, China's raw iron ore output was about 509 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%. The cumulative output of iron concentrate from 433 domestic mines was 138 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%. Domestically sourced iron accounted for about 19.0% of the total supply [20]. 3.2 Demand - More than half of the steel mills were profitable in H1. The total profit of规上 steel enterprises in H1 was 46.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7 times. However, the revenue of the steel industry decreased by 7.5% year-on-year, and the cumulative crude steel output was 515 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%. Steel mills' profits came from cost reduction. High steel mill profits supported high pig iron production and thus iron ore demand [21]. 3.3 Inventory - In H1, the inventory pressure on steel mills and ports was small. Steel mills' inventory was below 100 million tons after the Spring Festival, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was around 30. The inventory of imported iron ore decreased by about 3 million tons year-on-year. The inventory at 47 ports decreased from about 156 million tons at the beginning of the year to 144 million tons by July, 14 million tons lower than last year [24][26]. 4. Future outlook - In Q1, iron ore prices were relatively firm. In Q2, coking coal prices rebounded, but iron ore price increases were limited. In July, affected by policy expectations, funds flowed into coking coal. The main contradiction in the black sector lies in steel terminal demand, which depends on policy support. In the second half of the year, iron ore supply is expected to be strong, demand depends on policies, and inventory pressure is not large. The downside space for iron ore is limited, and the upside space depends on steel prices [27][30].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite positive domestic macro - policies, market sentiment remains cautious in the short - term due to upcoming Sino - US negotiations. Low domestic inventory limits the decline of copper prices, but the overall situation is one of weak supply and demand expectations. Short - term copper prices are expected to show a volatile trend, pending the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply and Demand - Domestic spot TC stabilizes at a low level of - 43. Japanese smelters are having difficult negotiations with Antofagasta on processing fees and cannot accept the extremely low conditions reached by Chinese smelters and Antofagasta. Domestic enterprise operating rates are declining, and the spot market is sluggish due to high prices. Last week, the copper rod operating rate was 69.4%, a 4.9% week - on - week decrease, and the copper cable enterprise operating rate was 70.83%, a 2.0% week - on - week decrease. Copper price increases suppress purchasing sentiment, and orders decrease in the off - season. Enterprises mainly rely on previous long - term orders to maintain operations, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly this week [4] 2. Inventory - Domestic inventory is being depleted. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory is 11.4 tons, a 20.3% week - on - week decrease [4] 3. Macro - environment - On July 25, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the manufacturing PMI in July rebounded to 49.8%, rising for two consecutive months, and the production index reached 51.7%. The National Development and Reform Commission issued the third batch of 69 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to local areas last week to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones. The US plan to impose tariffs on copper is approaching on August 1, and market trading is cautious. US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that China and the US will hold a new round of trade negotiations in Stockholm, Sweden, on Monday and Tuesday [4] 4. Market Trends - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the week, it continued the upward trend driven by the macro news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the previous Friday, and declined slightly in the second half of the week. The closing price on Friday was 79,250 yuan/ton, about 1% higher than the previous week [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in chemical coke and manganese ore prices are impacting the cost structure and market performance of manganese silicon production, with expectations of significant price volatility in the near future [1] Price Changes and Cost Analysis - Chemical coke prices increased by 100 yuan/ton, while port manganese ore prices saw a slight uptick, leading to higher immediate costs [1] - Estimated production costs as of July 25 are approximately 5710 yuan/ton in Ningxia, 5800 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia (with a loss of about 100 yuan/ton), and 6460 yuan/ton in Guangxi (with a loss of about 740 yuan/ton) [1] - Actual costs in production areas may be reduced by 100-200 yuan/ton due to adjustments in manganese ore ratios and tail gas power generation [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From July 19 to July 24, Tianjin Port received 451,924 tons of manganese ore, with a slight inventory increase of 989.7 tons, totaling 3,336,474 tons, which is below expectations [1] - Anticipated arrivals from July 25 to July 31 are 607,041 tons, with an estimated inventory increase of 100,000 to 200,000 tons based on typical outflow rates [1] - National daily production of silicon manganese as of July 25 is reported at 26,640 tons, with increases noted in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Yunnan [1] Market Pricing and Export Data - Hebei Steel Group set the silicon manganese price at 5,850 yuan/ton for July, with the first round of inquiries at 5,600 yuan/ton and a purchase volume of 14,600 tons, an increase from June [1] - In June 2025, China exported 1,151.6 tons of silicon manganese alloy and imported 685.73 tons [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The black metal sector is experiencing upward pressure due to rising coking coal prices, while manganese silicon prices have shown mixed reactions, with significant inflows of capital observed [1] - The market is currently driven more by speculative factors rather than fundamental changes, with profit margins encouraging manufacturers and traders to hedge [1] - The overall market sentiment remains uncertain, with expectations of significant price fluctuations for manganese silicon on July 28, necessitating caution among investors [1]

Core Insights - The company, First Quantum, shipped 8,248 tons of copper inventory from Panama in June [1] Company Summary - First Quantum's copper shipment volume indicates active production and distribution capabilities [1]