Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 125.7 points (previous value was 125.5 points), with a week - on - week increase of 4.8 points (previous increase was 4.7 points), and the year - on - year increase has rebounded. The long - short signal for interest - rate bonds is short, with a signal factor of 6.4% (previous value was 6.3%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 125.3 (previous value was 125.2), with a week - on - week increase of 4.7 points (previous increase was 4.6 points), and the year - on - year increase has increased [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 45.0 (previous value was 45.1), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.7 points (previous decrease was 6.8 points), and the year - on - year decline has narrowed; the infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 117.4 (previous value was 117.2), with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 points (previous increase was 0.0 points), and the year - on - year increase has expanded; the export high - frequency index is 144.6 (previous value was 144.7), with a week - on - week increase of 7.2 points (previous increase was 7.6 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed; the consumption high - frequency index is 119.4 (previous value was 119.4), with a week - on - week increase of 1.3 points (previous increase was 1.2 points), and the year - on - year increase has increased [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the CPI month - on - month forecast is 0.0% (previous value was 0.0%); the PPI month - on - month forecast is - 0.3% (previous value was - 0.3%) [2]. - The inventory high - frequency index is 159.8 (previous value was 159.7), with a week - on - week increase of 10.0 points (previous increase was 10.0 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. In transportation, the transportation high - frequency index is 127.1 (previous value was 126.9), with a week - on - week increase of 7.6 points (previous increase was 7.4 points), and the year - on - year increase has increased. In financing, the financing high - frequency index is 226.7 (previous value was 226.1), with a week - on - week increase of 29.0 points (previous increase was 29.0 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged [2]. Summary by Directory Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - Based on the report "Fundamental High - Frequency Data - An Effective Tool for Taking the Lead in Bond Market Investment" published on September 5, 2023, a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, financing, etc. was constructed, and the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and sub - indices were built [8]. - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 125.7 points, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 4.8 points. The interest - rate bond long - short signal factor is 6.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1% [9][11]. Production: Chemical Industry Operating Rate Rebounds - The industrial production high - frequency index is 125.3, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 4.7 points. The electric furnace operating rate is 64.7% (previous value was 63.5%); the polyester operating rate is 93.9% (previous value was 92.9%); the semi - tire operating rate is 78.3% (previous value was 58.4%); the full - tire operating rate is 65.1% (previous value was 44.8%); the PTA operating rate is 74.6% (previous value was 74.5%); the PX operating rate is 78.2% (previous value was 77.2%) [1][13]. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Year - on - Year Remain Negative - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 45.0, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.7 points. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 27.1 million square meters (previous value was 19.8 million square meters), and the land premium rate of 100 large and medium - sized cities is 7.2% (previous value was 8.7%) [11][21]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Rebounds - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 117.4, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 points and a year - on - year increase of 0.5 points. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants is 34.4% (previous value was 28.8%) [11][35]. Export: Yiwu Commodity Price Index Has Rebounded - The export high - frequency index is 144.6, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 7.2 points. The CCFI index is 1105 points (previous value was 1106 points), and the RJ/CRB index is 297.6 points (previous value was 291.5 points) [11][37]. Consumption: Passenger Car Manufacturers' Retail Sales Increase - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.4, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 1.3 points. Passenger car manufacturers' retail sales are 60,896 units (previous value was 41,659 units), passenger car manufacturers' wholesale sales are 48,492 units (previous value was 34,604 units), and the average daily box office is 34.25 million yuan (previous value was 72.49 million yuan) [11][49]. CPI: Vegetable Prices Continue to Fall - The CPI month - on - month forecast is 0.0%. The average wholesale price of pork is 20.9 yuan/kg (unchanged from the previous value), the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 4.3 yuan/kg (previous value was 4.4 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits is 7.9 yuan/kg (previous value was 7.8 yuan/kg), and the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.3 yuan/kg (previous value was 17.2 yuan/kg) [2][57]. PPI: Crude Oil Prices Have Rebounded - The PPI month - on - month forecast is - 0.3%. The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Shanxi - produced, Q5500) is 619 yuan/ton (previous value was 638 yuan/ton), the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 66 US dollars/barrel (previous value was 62 US dollars/barrel), and the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9569 US dollars/ton (previous value was 9471 US dollars/ton) [2][63]. Transportation: Passenger Transport Rebounds, Flights Decline - The transportation high - frequency index is 127.1, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 7.6 points. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 38.69 million person - times (previous value was 36.98 million person - times), the road logistics freight rate index is 1050 points (unchanged from the previous value), and the number of domestic flights has decreased to 12,728 flights (previous value was 13,179 flights) [2][74]. Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Declines - The inventory high - frequency index is 159.8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 10.0 points. The spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum has decreased to 89,000 tons (previous value was 171,000 tons) [2][80]. Financing: Net Financing of Local Government Bonds Rebounds, Net Financing of Credit Bonds Declines - The financing high - frequency index is 226.7, with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 points and a year - on - year increase of 29.0 points. The net financing of local government bonds is 171.1 billion yuan (previous value was 67.2 billion yuan), the net financing of credit bonds is - 17.5 billion yuan (previous value was 4.1 billion yuan), and the 6 - month national equity bank acceptance bill rediscount rate is 1.11% (previous value was 1.07%) [11][91].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·商贸零售 商贸零售行业跟踪周报 4 月我国出口额超预期，关注非美出口核心 标的小商品城 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 05 月 12 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石旖瑄 执业证书：S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn 执业证书：S0600520120002 zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阳靖 执业证书：S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 xiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王琳婧 执业证书：S0600123070017 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 30% 36% 42% 5/13/2024 9/10/2024 1/8/2025 5/8/2025 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究 《酒店集团业绩显著复苏，24 年 ...