1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economy shows signs of improved quality and prominent structural highlights, but internal momentum needs consolidation and demand requires further boosting. The full - year economic growth rate is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half, with the 5% annual target achievable [4]. - In the equity market, the foundation for a slow - bull market remains. The index is expected to oscillate strongly, and investors are advised to actively participate and focus on high - growth sectors. In the bond market, the upward movement is limited, and there is insufficient momentum for a trending long - position. In the commodity market, the differentiation intensifies, with the expected performance being precious metals > industrial metals > energy products [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 8 - month Economic Overview - **Positive aspects**: The service industry is highly prosperous, with the August service business activity index reaching 50.5%. New and old kinetic energy is accelerating transformation, and the "Two New" policies have strong supporting effects. The "Anti - involution" policy shows results, with the PPI ending its 8 - month decline. The capital activation degree increases, and the profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrows [4][5]. - **Challenges**: Economic data awaits trend improvement, with the manufacturing PMI below the boom - bust line for 5 consecutive months. Internal growth momentum needs consolidation, overseas demand is uncertain, real estate drags on the economy, and the profit structure of industrial enterprises above designated size may further differentiate [4][6]. 3.2 8 - month Economic Sub - data Interpretation - **Manufacturing PMI**: It remains in a low - level oscillation, with the production index driving the slight rebound. High - tech and equipment manufacturing PMIs show an upward trend [7]. - **Fixed - asset investment**: The growth rate continues to decline, mainly due to real estate drag. However, high - tech investment remains prosperous [9]. - **Consumption**: The growth rate slightly drops, but the "National Subsidy" and service - consumption policies are expected to support future consumption [10]. - **Exports**: The short - term growth slows down, and the future trend is uncertain due to factors such as high - base effects, policy changes, and overseas economic conditions [11][13]. - **Real estate**: Sales continue to be weak, with both sales area and investment decline expanding. Second - hand housing prices have not stopped falling [14]. - **Production**: It maintains a high level of prosperity, with the added value of industries above designated size growing steadily. Manufacturing is the core support [15]. - **Prices**: The "Anti - involution" policy affects PPI. CPI is weak, mainly dragged down by food prices. PPI ends its decline, but the recovery of PPI depends on demand - side policies [18][19]. - **Liquidity**: The total social financing slightly exceeds expectations, but the structure needs improvement, especially the slow recovery of medium - and long - term credit demand [22]. - **Profit**: The profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrows, and future profit growth depends on multiple factors [23]. 3.3 Future Economic Outlook - **Overseas**: The US economy shows signs of weakness, which may affect China's exports. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts will impact global liquidity [24]. - **Domestic policy**: A certain policy space will be reserved, and policies focus on long - term structural issues [25]. - **Economy**: The full - year economic growth rate is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. Investment may continue to explore the bottom, consumption has certain support, and exports remain uncertain [25]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - **Equity market**: The foundation for a slow - bull market exists. Investors are advised to focus on high - growth sectors such as self - controllability, energy storage and new energy, service consumption, and sectors benefiting from Fed rate cuts [27]. - **Bond market**: The upward movement is limited, and it is recommended to allocate when the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches 1.8% [30]. - **Commodity market**: The differentiation intensifies, and it is recommended to focus on precious metals [31].

Group 1 - Indian exporters are lobbying the central bank to allow them to temporarily exchange earnings from U.S. operations at a rate 15% lower than the current level to mitigate the impact of punitive tariffs imposed by U.S. President Trump [1] - The chairman of the Engineering Export Promotion Council of India, Pankaj Chadha, stated that exporters are seeking a dollar-to-rupee exchange rate of around 103 rupees, while the rupee is currently trading close to a historical low of 88.33 rupees per dollar [1] - Chadha mentioned that due to increased tariffs, goods exported to the U.S. are facing approximately 30% losses, and the exporters hope the government can cover at least half of these loss costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the procedures and regulations regarding the issuance of export invoices and the application of export tax refunds, specifically focusing on whether to apply a zero tax rate or an exemption for different types of exported goods [1][2][5]. Group 1: Export Invoice Issuance - Export invoices should be issued with a zero tax rate for goods eligible for export tax refunds that have a non-zero refund rate [1] - For goods with a zero refund rate that are exempt from tax, invoices should be issued as exempt [1] - If the goods have a zero refund rate but are subject to VAT taxation policies, the applicable tax rate should be selected when issuing the invoice [1] Group 2: Handling of Goods with Zero Export Tax Refund Rate - Goods subject to VAT exemption policies include specific items such as contraceptives, old books, software products, and certain jewelry containing precious metals [2] - Goods that fall under VAT taxation policies include those explicitly stated by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation as not eligible for export tax refunds [2][3] Group 3: Export Goods Classification - Export goods may be classified based on their export tax refund status, which can either be marked as "prohibited from export or not eligible for tax refunds" or "exempt" [5] - The classification affects whether the goods are treated as subject to domestic sales tax or exempt from tax [5] Group 4: Export Tax Refund Rate Inquiry - Export enterprises can check the export tax refund rates by logging into the national unified electronic tax bureau and navigating to the public inquiry section [7] Group 5: Currency Exchange Rate for Export Invoices - When issuing export invoices, enterprises must convert sales amounts into RMB using the exchange rate published by the foreign exchange administration on the day of customs export or the first day of the month [8]

Supply and Demand - Construction activity remains at a seasonal low, with cement dispatch volumes declining again, indicating weak demand[15] - Industrial production is at a historically high level but has marginally decreased compared to the previous two weeks[24] - Construction demand has turned negative year-on-year, with rebar and building materials demand falling to historical lows[31] Prices - Domestic industrial prices are fluctuating weakly due to limited demand-side support, with the Nanhua Composite Index declining[45] - International commodity prices are volatile, with gold prices showing a strong upward trend amid expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[42] Real Estate - New housing transactions have seen a narrowing year-on-year decline, with a 33% increase in transaction area compared to the previous two weeks[63] - Second-hand housing transactions are showing marginal improvement, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experiencing year-on-year changes of -3%, +17%, and +19% respectively[68] Exports - August exports are expected to grow by approximately 5% to 7%, with a model indicating a 5.5% increase[71] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a rise in funding rates, with the R007 and DR007 both at 1.52% as of August 31[76] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 13,759 billion yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[78]

Core Viewpoint - Canada's GDP contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, marking the first decline in seven quarters, slightly exceeding the Bank of Canada's July forecast of a 1.5% decrease [1] Economic Performance - The contraction in GDP was primarily due to a significant drop in goods exports and reduced business investment in machinery and equipment [1] - Exports fell by 7.5% in the second quarter, heavily impacted by U.S. tariffs, with passenger car and light truck exports plummeting by 24.7%, industrial machinery and equipment exports declining by 18.5%, and tourism service exports decreasing by 11.1% [1] Domestic Demand - Despite the export decline, domestic demand grew by 3.5%, indicating a relatively healthy domestic economic condition [1] - Increases in business inventories, growth in household spending, and a reduction in goods imports helped mitigate the negative impacts of the export downturn [1] Future Implications - Analysts suggest that the unexpected extent of the economic slowdown may increase the likelihood of the Bank of Canada lowering interest rates in September to stimulate economic recovery [1]

Economic Concerns - Economic growth in the first half of 2025 was strong at 5.3% YoY, driven by exports and the "two new" sectors, but recent months show signs of weakness[3] - Retail sales growth fell to 3.7% in July, influenced by e-commerce promotions and a gap in national subsidies[3] - Real estate continues to drag on the economy, with credit financing for property companies dropping 13.5 percentage points to -15.8%, the lowest in two years[3][20] Inflation and Price Transmission - July's inflation was below market expectations, with PPI at -3.6% due to poor price transmission from upstream to downstream sectors[4][24] - Capacity utilization in midstream (74%) and downstream (74.7%) is significantly lower than upstream (76.7%), hindering price transmission[4][24] Service Sector Resilience - While manufacturing sector sentiment is declining, the service sector shows strong resilience, with a service production index at 5.8%[5][32] - Service retail sales for January to July saw a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points to 5.2%, but certain service categories like tourism and leisure are experiencing double-digit growth[5][35] Export Performance - Exports grew by 7.2% YoY in July, with only 30% attributed to "panic buying" and 70% due to improved external demand and market share[7][44] - The contribution of "panic buying" to July's exports was approximately 2 percentage points, primarily affecting trade with ASEAN and Hong Kong[7][44] Future Outlook - Emerging economies are increasing investment, which, combined with China's growing import share in the Middle East and Africa, may boost exports to these regions[8][59] - Risks include potential short-term constraints from economic transformation and the effectiveness of policy implementation[8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In July, China's economic performance was below expectations, with exports being the highlight, but the export growth rate is likely to decline in the future. To maintain rapid economic growth in the second half of the year, domestic demand needs to continue to play a role [5][12][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 2.7% and the 2.8% in January - June. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 7.3% year - on - year, down from 8.9% in January - June and 9.2% in 2024. Narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 3.2% year - on - year, down from 4.6% in January - June and 4.4% in 2024. Manufacturing investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 7.2% and the 7.5% in January - June. Real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year, worse than the market expectation of a 11.5% decline and the 11.2% decline in January - June [2][6]. - In July, manufacturing investment decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, compared with a 5.1% increase in the previous month. Narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 5.1% year - on - year, compared with a 2.0% increase in the previous month [6]. Real Estate - From January to July, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.0% year - on - year, down from 3.5% in January - June and 12.9% in 2024. Since June, the decline rate of the national new - house sales area has accelerated. In July, the daily average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 19% year - on - year [3][8]. - In July, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 1.0% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. In second - and third - tier cities, the sales price of second - hand residential properties decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [3][8]. - In July, the funds available to real estate development enterprises decreased by 15.3% year - on - year, with the decline rate expanding from 9.1% in June. The new construction area decreased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 29.5% year - on - year, with the decline rates expanding from June [3][9]. Industrial Added Value - In July, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, slightly lower than the market expectation of 5.8% and the 6.8% in June. High - tech manufacturing maintained relatively fast growth, with a 9.3% year - on - year increase in July [10]. Foreign Trade - In July, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year, higher than the expected 5.8% and the 5.9% in the previous month. Imports increased by 4.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 0.3% and the 1.1% in the previous month. The trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars [11]. - In July, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 16.6% year - on - year, to the EU by 9.2% year - on - year, to the US decreased by 21.7% year - on - year, to South Korea increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and to Japan increased by 2.5% year - on - year. Exports to non - top five export countries and regions increased by 13.5% year - on - year, faster than the overall export growth rate [11]. - Considering the front - loading of exports in the first seven months and the relatively high base of export volume in the fourth quarter of last year, China's export growth rate is likely to decline in the future [12]. Consumption - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, lower than the market expectation of 4.9% and the 4.8% in June. The growth rates of most categories related to the trade - in policy declined compared with June [15]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 0.14% month - on - month in July, compared with a 0.26% decline in June after adjustment [15]. Service Industry and Unemployment Rate - In July, the national service industry production index increased by 5.8% year - on - year, lower than the 6.0% in June [19]. - In July, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, the same as the same month last year [19].

Economic Performance - In July, China's retail sales growth declined to 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in June and below the market expectation of 4.6%[2] - Fixed asset investment growth fell significantly by 1.2 percentage points to 1.6%, much lower than the expected 2.7%[3] - Industrial production growth decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 5.7%, also below the market expectation of 6.0%[5] Sector-Specific Insights - Real estate development investment fell by 12.0% year-on-year in July, worsening from a decline of 11.2% in June[3] - Retail sales of automobiles dropped by 1.5% in July, contrasting with a growth of 4.6% in June[2] - The manufacturing investment growth rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.2%[7] Policy and Future Outlook - The government is expected to introduce additional fiscal support of 0.5-1 trillion yuan by the end of September to bolster economic recovery[1] - Recent policies include a nationwide childcare subsidy starting in 2025, which is projected to directly aid consumption[10] - The central bank may implement a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10-20 basis point interest rate cut by the end of September[14]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian government has launched the "Brazil Sovereignty Plan" to support export companies affected by the 50% tariffs imposed by the U.S., providing 30 billion reais in credit support [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - On the first day of the policy implementation, the Brazilian stock market declined, with the main index Ibovespa closing down 0.89% at 136,687.32 points [1] - The Brazilian real depreciated slightly by 0.28% against the U.S. dollar, reaching an exchange rate of 5.4014 reais per dollar [1] Group 2: Policy Background - The plan was developed in response to the U.S. tariffs and was adjusted after Trump exempted around 700 products that account for 45% of Brazil's exports to the U.S. [1] - A scheduled meeting between Brazilian and American finance ministers was canceled by the U.S., leading to ongoing market concerns regarding negotiation progress [1] Group 3: Strategic Goals - Brazil aims to diversify its exports while stabilizing its economy and mitigating the impact of tariffs [1]

Core Points - Brazil's President Lula announced the launch of the "Brazil Sovereignty Plan" to counteract the impact of increased U.S. tariffs, aiming to protect exports, safeguard jobs, encourage investment in strategic sectors, and ensure sustainable economic development [1] Group 1: Economic Measures - The Brazilian government will allocate 30 billion reais (approximately 5.56 billion USD) from the export guarantee fund as credit support, prioritizing low-interest loans for companies severely affected by U.S. tariffs, including small and medium-sized enterprises [1] - Companies significantly impacted will be allowed to defer federal tax payments, and the government will extend the tax refund period for businesses that originally planned to export to the U.S., facilitating their product sales to other countries [1] - The government plans to modernize the export guarantee system and increase support for medium-high technology and green economy export companies [1] Group 2: Employment and Labor Rights - A National Employment Monitoring Committee will be established to track employment situations in companies and related supply chains affected by U.S. tariff measures, enhancing labor rights protection and ensuring job stability [1] Group 3: Trade Partnerships - Brazil aims to strengthen cooperation with trade partners outside the U.S. to reduce export dependence on the U.S. The country has completed negotiations with the EU and the European Free Trade Association, is negotiating with the UAE and Canada, and is maintaining dialogue with India and Vietnam [1] - In less than three years, Brazil has opened 397 new export markets [1] Group 4: Diplomatic Relations - The Brazilian government reiterated its commitment to maintaining constructive dialogue with the U.S. to resolve differences through negotiations, protecting the rights of businesses, workers, and consumers [2]