2025年12月17日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：昨日贵金属价格震荡，国际金价基本收平。 基本面：11 月美非农数据 6.4w，好于预期，但是失业率飙升至 4.6%；美联储内部分歧严重，纽约联储总裁 威廉姆斯表示，美联储上周降息使其处于应对未来挑战的良好位置，并补充说，他认为随着就业市场降温， 通胀将会回落；费城联储主席表示通胀不再是最大敌人，就业下行风险更值得担忧，暗示支持降息；芝加哥 联储主席解释反对降息，表示应等待更多通胀数据；堪萨斯城联储主席解释反对降息理由是通胀过高。国内 黄金 ETF 小幅流入，COMEX 黄金库存为 1118.6 吨，-4.6 吨；上期所黄金库存为 91.3 吨，维持不变；黄金 ETF 持仓为 1053.1 吨，+2.3 吨；伦敦 11 月黄金库存 8906 吨，+48 吨；COMEX 白银库存为 14099.5 吨， -76.4 吨；上期所白银库存为 820.9 吨，+40.3 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 16102 吨，+19.7 吨。伦敦 11 月白银库存增加 932 吨至 27183 吨；印度 ...

Core Viewpoint - CIMC Group (000039) reported significant growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of the year, driven by strong performance in energy-related and logistics-related businesses [1] Group 1: Energy-Related Business - The energy-related business saw a substantial increase in order turnover prices, coupled with improved production efficiency, leading to a notable enhancement in profitability [1] - The gross profit margin for the offshore engineering segment increased by 5.84 percentage points year-on-year to 10.88% [1] - The gross profit margin for the energy and chemical segment rose by 1.91 percentage points year-on-year to 15.12% [1] Group 2: Logistics-Related Business - The logistics-related business benefited from strengthened cost control over production materials, resulting in a more significant decrease in material costs, which contributed to gross margin growth [1] - The gross profit margin for the container manufacturing segment improved by 3.95 percentage points to 16.15% in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 3: Overall Performance - Despite a slight decline in revenue compared to the same period last year, the net profit attributable to shareholders and overall profitability experienced substantial growth [1] - All segments, including container manufacturing, offshore engineering, energy and chemical, liquid food, airport and firefighting, financial and asset management, and circular vehicles, reported performance growth in the first half of the year [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The report updates the high - frequency data of the national economic fundamentals from October 6th to October 10th, 2025. The national high - frequency fundamental index shows an expanding year - on - year increase, while the bull - bear signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged. Different sectors have different trends, such as a slight decline in real - estate sales, an expanding increase in infrastructure investment, etc. [1][8][9] Summary by Directory Total Index - The national high - frequency fundamental index is 128.1 points (previous value: 128.0 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.9 points (previous increase: 5.8 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The bull - bear signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 5.0% (previous value: 5.0%). [1][8][9] Production - The high - frequency industrial production index is 127.3 (previous value: 127.2), with a year - on - year increase of 5.5 points (previous increase: 5.4 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The electric - furnace operating rate slightly declined, with the current rate at 59.6% (previous value: 60.3%). [1][8][14] Real - Estate Sales - The high - frequency real - estate sales index is 42.3 (previous value: 42.4), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.1 points (previous decrease: 6.2 points), and the year - on - year decline is narrowing. The land premium rate of large and medium - sized cities increased, with the current rate at 4.8% (previous value: 1.9%), while the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased to 11.4 million square meters (previous value: 25.7 million square meters). [1][9][22] Infrastructure Investment - The high - frequency infrastructure investment index is 121.8 (previous value: 121.5), with a year - on - year increase of 8.1 points (previous increase: 7.3 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The daily average pig - iron output slightly declined to 241.5 tons (previous value: 241.8 tons). [1][9][36] Export - The high - frequency export index is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with a year - on - year increase of 1.6 points (previous increase: 1.8 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The CCFI index continued to decline to 1015 points (previous value: 1087 points), and the RJ/CRB index decreased to 299.3 points (previous value: 300.3 points). [1][9][39] Consumption - The high - frequency consumption index is 120.6 (previous value: 120.5), with a year - on - year increase of 3.6 points (previous increase: 3.5 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The daily average box office of movies slightly declined to 14,803 million yuan (previous value: 15,858 million yuan). [1][9][50] CPI - The month - on - month CPI forecast remains at 0.2% (previous value: 0.2%). The average wholesale price of pork continued to decline to 18.7 yuan/kg (previous value: 19.3 yuan/kg). [2][9][57] PPI - The month - on - month PPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: - 0.1%). The crude - oil price slightly declined, with the Brent crude - oil futures settlement price at 65 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 66 US dollars/barrel), while the copper and aluminum prices continued to rise. The LME copper spot settlement price is 10,718 US dollars/ton (previous value: 10,358 US dollars/ton), and the LME aluminum spot settlement price is 2,753 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2,685 US dollars/ton). [2][9][60] Transportation - The high - frequency transportation index is 131.5 (previous value: 131.3), with a year - on - year increase of 10.0 points (previous increase: 9.8 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities declined to 3,097 million person - times (previous value: 3,550 million person - times). [2][9][72] Inventory - The high - frequency inventory index is 162.4 (previous value: 162.3), with a year - on - year increase of 8.5 points (previous increase: 8.6 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The electrolytic - aluminum inventory declined to 13.6 million tons (previous value: 18.8 million tons). [2][9][78] Financing - The high - frequency financing index is 239.2 (previous value: 238.6), with a year - on - year increase of 30.2 points (previous increase: 30.1 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The net financing of local government bonds is negative, with a value of - 246 billion yuan (previous value: 632 billion yuan). [2][9][89]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market volatility may increase. After important events, China may gradually enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the pricing weight of fundamentals for assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel, which is expected to support the recovery of total demand and form a positive feedback between sentiment and overseas macro - fundamentals. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US macro - fundamentals are relatively stable, but the political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, boosting market expectations of interest rate cuts. At the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting in August, Powell's dovish stance exceeded market expectations. On August 25, Trump removed the hawkish Fed governor Cook, further increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts. Currently, the US consumer's willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating widely at a low level, and the actual salary growth of US consumers is flat. The ability of residents to consume still awaits the transmission of interest rate cuts. Loose expectations and asset revaluation are expected to have a positive feedback effect on investment and consumption, but sticky service inflation, tariff shocks, and concerns about the Fed's independence remain tail risks [8] - **Domestic Macro**: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved. "Anti - involution" has promoted the continued improvement of mid - stream profits in July. Recently, demand - side policies in first - tier cities have been frequently introduced. The marginal relaxation of policies is expected to boost trading volume, but the sustainability remains to be seen. From January to July, the year - on - year decline in the profits of national industrial enterprises above the designated size narrowed to - 1.7%. "Anti - involution" has enabled the raw material processing industry to obtain a larger share of profits, while both upstream mining and downstream consumer goods industries have seen their profits squeezed. The issue of anti - involution still has a long way to go. In the real estate sector, first - tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have successively introduced policies to relax purchase restrictions and optimize provident funds. Compared with previous policies, the overall intensity of this round of policies is relatively weak. Structurally, the relaxation of new homes in the suburbs of core cities is relatively stronger, aiming to guide residents to digest the inventory of suburban new homes first, which has a marginal support for developers' liquidity [8] - **Asset Views**: Short - term market volatility may increase. After important events, China may gradually enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the pricing weight of fundamentals for assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel, which is expected to support the recovery of total demand and form a positive feedback between sentiment and overseas macro - fundamentals. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [8] 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: For stock index futures, the chips show signs of loosening, and the short - term judgment is volatile upward. For stock index options, the strategy is mainly for hedging and defense, and the short - term judgment is volatile. For treasury bond futures, continue to pay attention to the performance of the stock market, and the short - term judgment is volatile [9] - **Precious Metals**: The expansion of interest rate cut expectations is beneficial to the price. For gold and silver, it is expected that the US interest rate cut cycle may restart in September, but the impact of market risk appetite needs to be noted. The short - term judgment is volatile upward [9] - **Shipping**: For the container shipping route to Europe, the peak season in the third quarter has turned dull, and there is a lack of upward driving force due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile [9] - **Black Building Materials**: After the parade, there are still upward expectations for the sector. For products such as steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc., they are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [9] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The weak US dollar continues to support non - ferrous metals, but the weakening demand also needs to be emphasized. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [9] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The weakening of crude oil supply - demand and the decline of coking coal have dragged down the chemical industry. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [11] - **Agriculture**: The agricultural sector is in a high - level narrow - range volatility, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market showed a widespread decline, with the stock index sector generally falling [1]. - Overseas, after the global central bank summit, the expectation of a September interest rate cut has further strengthened, and the overseas macro - monetary situation is expected to become looser, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel [6]. - In the short term, the high - spirited market sentiment in the domestic market may continue as it approaches important events in early September. After these events, the domestic market may enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the fundamental factors may play a more important role in pricing assets, especially short - duration commodity assets. The current differentiation between capital and fundamental performance may lead to increased short - term market volatility [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short term, but there are still employment and inflation pressures in the medium term. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts is strengthening. The consumer confidence in the US deteriorated in August, and inflation concerns rose again. In the real estate sector, new housing starts increased steadily in July, while building permits continued to decline [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The profits of Chinese industrial enterprises have improved, and Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies. From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decline in the profits of national large - scale industrial enterprises narrowed to - 1.7% from - 1.8%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 2.3%. The probability of a significant decline in external demand has decreased, and domestic demand such as consumption and investment is still at a reasonable level. The capital market remains loose [6]. - **Asset Views**: In the short term, the domestic market may maintain high - spirited sentiment until after important events in early September. Then, the fundamental factors may have a greater impact on asset pricing. Overseas, the expectation of interest rate cuts in September is strengthening, and the overseas macro - monetary situation is expected to become looser. The current market may face increased short - term volatility [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Leveraged funds are crowded, and there is a rush to take profits. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to the decline in incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: There is strong betting on the put side. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to the deterioration of option market liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The capital market remains loose, and the yield curve is steepening. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of an interest rate cut in the US in September is expanding, which is beneficial to prices. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trend [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and there is a lack of upward momentum due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the rate of freight rate decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The real - world support is limited, and the futures price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - making output [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Market sentiment has weakened, and the fundamentals have changed little. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic iron - making production, weather conditions, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: Supply is restricted in some regions, and the eighth round of price increases is emerging. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Market sentiment has declined, and the futures price has回调 significantly. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The black chain is showing a weak trend, and the futures price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The sector is in a downward adjustment, and the futures price is weakly volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to cost prices and foreign market quotes [7]. - **Glass**: The commodity market sentiment has cooled, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has decreased in the short term, while rigid demand remains stable. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to soda ash inventory [7]. - **Copper**: The suspension of tariffs between China and the US has been extended, and the copper price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession [7]. - **Alumina and Aluminum**: The alumina price is under pressure due to weak and stable spot prices and increasing warehouse receipts. The aluminum price is oscillating at a high level with a slight increase in social inventory. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum production resumption, extreme sector trends, macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has oscillated and declined due to the fall in black - series prices. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, with attention paid to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: The consumption situation is still unclear, and the lead price has oscillated and declined. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to supply - side disruptions, slowdown in battery exports, unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [7]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the nickel price is oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to supply - side disruptions, slowdown in battery exports, unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price has continued to rise, and the stainless - steel futures price has回调. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected increases in demand [7]. - **Tin**: The raw material supply is still tight, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The coal price is fluctuating, and the silicon price is continuously volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The multi - empty game continues, and the price is oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, with attention paid to OPEC + production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [9]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized, and attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to cost - side developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price has oscillated and declined due to the fall in crude oil prices. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil price has risen and then fallen. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention paid to geopolitical factors and crude oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price has followed the crude oil price and oscillated downward. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention paid to crude oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory has accumulated, but short - term petrochemical news has provided a boost. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to macro - energy factors and upstream and downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and the export - driven effect is less than expected. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The low inventory level coincides with the peak - season expectation, providing strong support for the price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns [9]. - **PX**: The price is driven by emotional factors and the peak - season effect. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, unexpected macro - changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [9]. - **PTA**: Supply is decreasing while demand is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction from August to October. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, unexpected macro - changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The peak season for terminal products has started, and yarn mills are mainly focused on capital recovery. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and unexpected device production cuts [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory has decreased, but the processing margin is under pressure due to the strong performance of upstream products. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to unexpected production increases by bottle - chip enterprises and a surge in overseas export orders [9]. - **Propylene**: The price is mainly following the PP price in the short term. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic macro - factors [9]. - **PP**: The price is fluctuating due to news from Zhonghan Petrochemical, but the fundamental support is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - factors [9]. - **Plastic**: The plastic price has strengthened slightly due to news from the petrochemical industry. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - factors [9]. - **Styrene**: The commodity market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has been boosted, and the PVC price has weakly stabilized. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price rebound has slowed down, and short - term long positions have taken profits. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [9]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price is continuing to adjust in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the technical support below. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: The domestic market has declined due to state - reserve auctions, and the domestic market is weaker than the overseas market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and China - US and China - Canada trade disputes [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The decline in the spot price has slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded slightly. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to less - than - expected demand, macro - factors, and weather conditions [9]. - **Hogs**: The supply of hogs is abundant, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. 3.2.6 Agriculture - **Rubber**: The rubber price has declined following the market atmosphere, with little change in its own fundamentals. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price has followed the natural rubber price and weakened. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [9]. - **Pulp**: The price has continued to decline, possibly due to pricing based on spruce. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Cotton**: The low inventory level combined with improved demand provides strong support for the short - term cotton price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: The supply pressure has increased marginally, and the sugar price has continued to decline. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to imports [9]. - **Logs**: The delivery pressure in the September contract is relatively large, dragging down the far - month contracts. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, with attention paid to shipment volume and dispatch volume [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: - Stocks: Bullish [1] - Bonds: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Gold: Bullish [1] - Silver: Bullish in the short - term, cautious in the medium - term [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - Copper: Bullish (Oscillating upward) [1] - Aluminum: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Alumina: Neutral (Wide - range oscillating) [1] - Zinc: Bullish [1] - Nickel: Bullish in the short - term, cautious in the long - term [1] - Stainless Steel: Bullish (Oscillating upward) [1] - Tin: Volatile in the short - term [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Hydroxide: Bullish [1] - **Ferrous Metals**: - Rebar: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Hot - rolled Coil: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Iron Ore: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Silicomanganese: Bullish [1] - Ferrosilicon: Bullish [1] - Glass: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Bullish [1] - Coking Coal: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Coke: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - **Agricultural Products**: - Palm Oil: Bullish, with risks [1] - Methanol: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Cotton: Bullish in the short - term, limited upside for 01 contract [1] - White Sugar: Bullish, limited upside [1] - Corn: Bearish for CO1, limited upside for C09 [1] - Soybean Meal: Bullish for M01 on pullbacks, limited upside for M09 [1] - Pulp: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Logs: Bullish in the short - term, not advisable to chase [1] - Live Pigs: Neutral (Stable) [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Crude Oil: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Fuel Oil: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Asphalt: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Natural Rubber: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - BR Rubber: Neutral (Oscillating with support) [1] - PTA: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Bullish [1] - Short - fiber: Bullish [1] - Styrene: Bullish [1] - Urea: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - PF: Neutral (Oscillating downward) [1] - DO: Bullish (Oscillating upward) [1] - PVC: Bullish (Oscillating upward) [1] - Caustic Soda: Bullish [2] - LPG: Bearish [2] - Shipping: Bearish [2] 2. Core Views - In the short term, stock indices are expected to be strong due to the "asset shortage" and "national team" support, as well as the boost from "anti - involution" and real estate policy expectations. Bond futures are favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts their upside. Gold and silver are expected to be strong in the short term due to market uncertainties [1]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, "anti - involution" policies and other factors drive price movements. For example, zinc and stainless steel prices are rising, while nickel is strong in the short term but faces long - term over - supply pressure [1]. - In the ferrous metals sector, supply - side reforms drive the prices of many products such as silicomanganese, ferrosilicon, glass, and soda ash to be strong [1]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different trends. For example, corn has different strategies for different contracts, and soybean meal has different outlooks for M09 and M01 [1]. - In the energy and chemicals sector, factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and seasonal factors affect product prices. For example, styrene is bullish due to factors such as increased device load, while LPG is bearish due to high inventory and seasonal factors [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Recently, stock indices have shown obvious insensitivity to negative news, with strong trading volume and market sentiment. The "asset shortage" and "national team" support increase the willingness to allocate equity assets, and "anti - involution" and real estate policy expectations boost market sentiment. In the short term, stock indices are expected to be strong [1]. - **Bond Futures**: The "asset shortage" and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts their upside [1]. - **Gold and Silver**: Market uncertainties remain, so the price of gold is expected to be strong and oscillating in the short term. Silver shows short - term resilience, but caution is needed in the medium term [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The "anti - involution" theme in China is volatile, and downstream demand is fair, so the copper price is oscillating upward [1]. - **Aluminum**: The "anti - involution" theme in China is emerging, but high prices suppress downstream demand, so the aluminum price may oscillate [1]. - **Alumina**: Alumina profits are expanding, with both supply and inventory increasing, and the price is oscillating widely [1]. - **Zinc**: The "anti - involution" and capacity - reduction themes in China are emerging, infrastructure demand is boosted, and the risk of LME zinc squeeze is increasing, so the zinc price is rising. Attention should be paid to LME warehouse receipts [1]. - **Nickel**: The "anti - involution" policy in China is emerging, and the macro - sentiment is positive. Indonesia's RKAB approval quota in the first half of the year reached 364 million wet tons, and the premium of Indonesian nickel ore has slightly declined. In the short term, the nickel price is mainly driven by the macro - situation and is oscillating upward. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment calms down. In the long term, the over - supply of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The "anti - involution" policy in China is emerging, and the macro - sentiment is warming up, which boosts the steel price. The price of raw material ferronickel is weak, the social inventory of stainless steel is slightly decreasing, and after profit recovery, steel mills' production cuts may be less than expected. Attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills. The stainless steel futures are oscillating upward. It is recommended to wait and see and look for positive arbitrage opportunities between futures and spot, and pay attention to raw material changes and steel mills' production schedules [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: Strong furnace materials provide valuation support, and the prices are oscillating [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Although the commodity sentiment is positive, the fundamentals are marginally weakening, and the price is oscillating [1]. - **Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Glass, and Soda Ash**: Supply - side reforms are restarted, and the prices are mainly strong [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The "anti - involution" theme is mentioned in high - level meetings. Although it cannot be compared with the 2015 supply - side reform bull market, it cannot be falsified in the short - term trading aspect. Short - selling orders should be temporarily avoided, and industrial customers should seize the opportunity of premium to establish positive arbitrage positions between futures and spot. For coke, the key is to seize the opportunity of futures premium for short - selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There is an expectation of international demand growth, and the reference price in Malaysia is raised. The risk lies in the negative impact of increased production in the producing areas and weak exports [1]. - **Cotton**: Cotton has increased positions and prices in the short term, mainly driven by the logic of squeezing the 01 contract in the near - month. The upside of the 01 contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the time window from the end of July to the beginning of August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas [1]. - **White Sugar**: White sugar is running strongly, with the bottom - divergence rebound of raw sugar and peak - season demand, but the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to the oscillation in the range of 5600 - 6000 [1]. - **Corn**: The supply - demand of old - crop corn is tightening, which supports the market, but the low price difference between wheat and corn squeezes the demand for corn. Under the pressure of high warehouse receipts, the rebound space of C09 is expected to be limited. The planting cost of new - season corn is reduced, and the production situation is good. It is recommended to short CO1 at high prices [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal is in the inventory - accumulation cycle, and the basis is expected to continue to be under pressure. In the short term, the spot lacks the conditions for a sharp rise. Under the low basis, the upside of M09 is expected to be limited. Supported by the import cost, it is recommended to wait for pullbacks to buy M01 [1]. - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has rebounded significantly due to the strong commodity sentiment. Currently, the basis of broad - leaf pulp has weakened to - 1400 yuan/ton, and it is not recommended to chase the rise. In the short term, the main trading logic of logs may shift to the "strong expectation" of the 09 contract. After a sharp rise, it is not recommended to chase the rise [1]. - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous restoration of live - pig inventory, the slaughter weight is continuously increasing. The market expects sufficient inventory, and the futures are at a large discount to the spot. In the short term, the spot is less affected by slaughter, and the overall decline is limited, so the futures remain stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down, and the market has returned to the supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and short - term peak - season consumption in Europe and the United States provides support. The prices are oscillating [1]. - **Asphalt**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil price. Cost disturbances and demand recovery balance each other, and the price fluctuation is limited [1]. - **Natural Rubber and BR Rubber**: For natural rubber, there are short - term rainfall disturbances in the producing areas, slow inventory reduction, and positive macro - sentiment in the market. For BR rubber, the cost of butadiene provides support, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are stable, demand is weakening, the spot price is oscillating, and there will be some device maintenance of butadiene in the future with limited cargo supply, so the BR futures are expected to consolidate in stages and then have price support [1]. - **PTA**: PTA supply has shrunk, but the crude oil price remains strong. The downstream load of polyester remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction. In July, bottle chips and short - fibers will enter the maintenance cycle. PTA ports have slightly reduced inventory, and the replenishment willingness of polyester is not high [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has risen slightly, the commodity sentiment is generally positive, overseas ethylene glycol device maintenance has been postponed, the supply has shrunk, and the market expects less arrival of goods in the future [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The registration volume of short - fiber warehouse receipts is small, and short - fiber factories' maintenance is increasing. Under the high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly declined, styrene sales are active, the device load of styrene has increased, the basis of styrene has significantly weakened, and there are many old - capacity issues in the pure - benzene and styrene industries [1]. - **Urea**: There is an expectation of supply contraction, and domestic demand has entered the off - season [1]. - **PF**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and it has returned to the fundamentals. There are many maintenance activities, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price is oscillating downward [1]. - **DO**: The downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, the supply pressure is increasing, and the price is oscillating upward [1]. - **PVC**: The prices of coking coal and other products have risen, the market sentiment is good, the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, and the price is oscillating upward [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is approaching the end, the spot price has fallen to a low level, the premium of caustic soda delivery substitutes has increased, there are many coal policies, and the sentiment is positive [2]. - **LPG**: The support from crude oil is insufficient, the international fundamentals are loose, the port propane inventory is high, the CP - FEI spread has narrowed, the LPG combustion demand is in the seasonal off - season, the chemical demand is average, the spread between industrial and civil uses has narrowed, and the domestic LPG price is running weakly [2]. - **Shipping**: The signal of freight rate peaking is emerging, European ports are still congested, and there will be many scheduled ships in August [2].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical percentiles, and all - time percentiles of various stock index futures spreads and cross - variety ratios on July 22, 2025 [1]. Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: For example, the F futures - spot spread is - 20.81, down 4.06 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 30.70% and an all - time percentile of 21.70% [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Such as the F inter - delivery spread, where the season - month minus the current - month is - 41.00, down 32.20, with a 1 - year percentile of 20.00% and an all - time percentile of 26.40% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: For instance, the IC/IF ratio is 1.4898, up 0.0051, with a 1 - year percentile of 62.20% and an all - time percentile of 60.20% [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The report provides data on IRR, basis, inter - delivery spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures on July 22, 2025, including their changes and historical percentiles [2]. Summary by Category - **IRR**: The 15 - year IRR is 1.6099, down 0.0053 from the previous day, with a historical percentile of 24.90% [2]. - **Basis**: For example, the T basis is 1.5727, down 0.0409, with a historical percentile of 53.80% [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Like the TS inter - delivery spread, the current - season minus the alternate - season is - 0.0080, with a historical percentile of 11.60% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Such as the TS - TF spread, which is - 3.5350 on July 22, 2025, up 0.0210, with a historical percentile of 8.10% [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Futures - Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The report shows the domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and holdings of precious metals on July 22, 2025, along with their changes [4]. Summary by Category - **Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2510 contract closed at 781.70 yuan/gram on July 21, up 4.68 (0.60%) from July 18 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The London gold price was 3396.67 dollars/ounce on July 21, up 47.01 (1.40%) from July 18 [4]. - **Basis**: The gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 basis is - 4.70, down 1.05, with a 1 - year percentile of 5.60% [4]. - **Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio is 86.91, down 0.42 (- 0.48%) [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.38%, down 0.06 (- 1.4%) [4]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: The SPRD gold ETF holding is 947 tons, up 3.44 (0.36%) [4]. Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Futures - Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The report offers information on Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data on July 22, 2025 [7]. Summary by Category - **Freight Rates**: The CMA CGM's Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rate is 4226 dollars/FEU on July 21, up 124 (3.78%) from July 20 [7]. - **Indices**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index is 2400.50 points on July 21, down 21.4 (- 0.89%) from July 14 [7]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The EC2602 contract closed at 1486.4 on July 21, down 8.7 (- 0.58%) from July 18, and the basis of the main contract is 956.5, down 22.1 (- 2.26%) [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply is 3271.67 on July 22, unchanged from July 21 [7]. Group 5: Trading Calendar Core Viewpoints - The report lists overseas and domestic data and information release schedules on July 22, 2025, including various economic indicators and events [9]. Summary by Category - **Overseas Data**: Such as New Zealand's log exports [9]. - **Domestic Data**: For example, the inventory of manganese ore by variety and the throughput of manganese ore in Qinzhou Port for manganese - silicon [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Aluminum, Alumina, Stainless Steel, Nickel, Copper, Zinc [1] - **Bearish**: Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Shandong Gasoline, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, PVC, LPG [1] - **Neutral or Sideways**: Treasury Bonds, Silver, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Benzene, Styrene, Chlor - Alkali, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the stock index is likely to fluctuate strongly driven by sentiment and liquidity, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - The market uncertainty has resurfaced, and the gold price has stabilized and rebounded. The macro and commodity attributes may still support the silver price, but the fundamentals may limit its upside [1] - The recent improvement in market sentiment and the low - level operation of electrolytic aluminum inventory have led to a strong aluminum price. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut has boosted market risk appetite and commodity prices [1] - The supply - side impact of some metal - related events is limited, and metal prices are affected by macro - sentiment and related metal price movements [1] - For agricultural products, factors such as production forecasts, policy changes, and price differentials affect market trends. For example, Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and domestic corn and soybean meal have different outlooks [1] - In the energy and chemical sectors, geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors influence prices. For instance, the cooling of the Middle East situation and OPEC+ actions affect oil prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, it is likely to fluctuate strongly driven by sentiment and liquidity, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Currently in a period of asset - liability and weak economy, but the central bank's recent interest - rate risk warning suppresses the upside [1] - **Gold**: The market uncertainty has resurfaced, and the price has stabilized and rebounded [1] - **Silver**: The macro and commodity attributes may still support the price, but the fundamentals may limit its upside [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Recently, the market risk appetite has recovered, and the short - term price is strong due to the squeeze - out situation of US copper and LME copper [1] - **Aluminum**: The recent improvement in market sentiment and the low - level operation of electrolytic aluminum inventory have led to a strong price [1] - **Alumina**: The Fed's expected interest - rate cut has boosted market risk appetite and commodity prices, and it is short - term strong [1] - **Zinc**: Affected by news, it fell in the short term, but rebounded with the sharp rise in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment [1] - **Nickel**: After the improvement in commodity sentiment, the price rebounded from the short - term bottom, but the upside is limited. In the long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot trading has improved periodically, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Short - term operation is recommended [1] - **Tin**: The supply of mines is difficult to recover in the short term, and the price rebounded with the improvement of macro - sentiment [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: There are short - term factory production restrictions. Temporarily wait and see [1] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term production has increased slightly, demand is weakening, supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Focus on selling hedging opportunities when the futures are at a premium [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: According to Malay high - frequency data, it is likely to accumulate inventory in June, which is bearish [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Before the anti - dumping investigation result of Canadian rapeseed is announced, it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums; in the long term, macro - uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the long - term production may be affected by the crude oil price [1] - **Corn**: The short - term is affected by import and auction news, and the C09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly later [1] - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is expected to be tight, and the domestic soybean meal price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: The Middle East situation has cooled, OPEC+ may continue to increase production, and the long - term supply - demand tends to be loose [1] - **Shandong Gasoline**: Affected by cost and demand factors, it is bearish [1] - **Natural Rubber and BR Rubber**: The downstream demand is weakening, the supply is expected to increase, and the price is bearish [1] - **PTA and Ethylene Glycol**: The market is affected by factors such as device maintenance, supply - demand, and cost [1] - **PVC and Chlor - Alkali**: After the end of maintenance, new devices are put into production, and the supply pressure increases, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - **LPG**: The 7 - month CP price has been lowered, and the short - term price has a downward space [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: The freight rate is expected to peak in mid - July, and the subsequent capacity deployment is sufficient [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Sichuan provincial government is implementing a comprehensive training program aimed at enhancing the foreign trade capabilities of local enterprises in response to the complex international economic environment. The initiative focuses on practical training to help businesses overcome challenges in foreign trade and aims to boost their market expansion and risk management abilities [1][2][3]. Group 1: Training Initiatives - The training program emphasizes practical applications, addressing specific foreign trade challenges faced by enterprises, such as market expansion and compliance with international trade policies [2][3]. - The first phase of the training includes sessions on international market development, the impact of U.S. trade policies on emerging industries, and practical case studies in cross-border e-commerce [3]. - Future training sessions will cover various sectors, including electronics, food and agricultural products, and machinery, with a total of 50 targeted training events planned for the year [4]. Group 2: Strategic Focus Areas - The initiative categorizes enterprises into four groups: "breaking the zero," "returning," "growing," and "safeguarding," each with tailored strategies to enhance their foreign trade capabilities [6]. - "Breaking the zero" focuses on assisting enterprises that are hesitant or lack the skills to engage in foreign trade through direct training [6]. - "Returning" targets businesses that previously engaged in foreign trade but have since become inactive, with customized plans to reintegrate them into the market [6]. - "Growing" aims to support high-potential enterprises with dedicated services to help them ascend to leading positions in their sectors [6]. - "Safeguarding" provides timely information on trade conditions and potential products, leveraging AI applications to respond to enterprise needs [6][7]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - In 2024, Sichuan aims to achieve over 1 trillion yuan in foreign trade, with 9,106 active foreign trade enterprises projected, marking a net increase of 855 from 2023 [5]. - The contribution of private foreign trade enterprises is expected to exceed 440 billion yuan, highlighting their significant role in the province's foreign trade landscape [5].