根据中报，我们小幅调整公司25-26 年盈利预测（下调了可复美销售增速），同时引入27 年盈利预测， 考虑股本变动，预计2025-2027 年每股收益分别为2.33、2.85 和3.50 元（原预测25-26 年分别为2.45 和 3.03 元），参照可比公司估值，给予2025年32 倍PE 估值，对应目标价81.46 港币（1 人民币=1.09 港 币），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 行业竞争加剧，与头部达人合作的恢复不及预期、新品销售低于预期等 分渠道看，面向电商平台的在线直销（比如京东）和线下直销的快速增长是公司营收的主要拉动力。中 报显示，直销是公司收入的大头，占公司收入的75%。其中上半年对京东为首的电商平台的在线直销和 线下直销收入同比分别增长134%和74%，成为推动公司整体营收保持较快增长的主要动力。 公司中报中最大的亮点是销售费用的控制超出市场预计，也为下半年营销投放留出了充足空间。中报公 司销售费用率同比下降了0.86 个百分点，我们判断部分与二季度产品风波事件影响引发的达播减少有 关，部分还是与公司在各渠道间均衡发展带来的投放效率提升。上半年销售费用的良好控制也为公司下 半年迎接双十一等 ...

爱美客未来的发展前景如何？有哪些新产品值得关注？ 爱美客未来的发展前景主要依赖于新产品的推出和老业务的稳定。预计下半年 老业务的下滑速度会有所收窄，而新产品如真爱素菲已经开始招兵买马并开启 发货通道。根据草根调研，真爱素菲与中国最大的医美集团合作，有望达到该 集团童颜系列 1/3 左右的规模。此外，公司专门为 Region 公司的真爱素菲招 聘了高端医美注射产品经验丰富的人才，这将有助于加快放量周期和对接速度。 同时，公司积极推行销售激励机制，吸引了大量优秀销售人才入场。 爱美客 摘要 爱美客整合童颜针和真爱素菲销售管线，并已启动发货，但 2025 年上 半年扣非归母净利润同比下降 33.7%，Q2 降幅扩大至 42.8%，主要受 市场景气度放缓和终端需求承压影响。 核心产品乳白天使和 Happy 系列面临日益激烈的市场竞争，老业务下 滑趋势预计在 2025 年下半年收窄，但需关注其对整体业绩的影响。 新产品真爱素菲已开始招募团队并启动发货，与大型医美集团合作，有 望达到该集团童颜系列产品销售额的三分之一，成为业绩增长新动力。 爱美客为真爱素菲招聘高端医美注射产品经验人才，并推行销售激励机 制，旨在加速产品放 ...

近期，美国经济的中流砥柱——中产阶层正面临前所未有的经济挑战。高通胀的持续影响、关税政策的 不确定性以及收入预期的下滑，让这一群体的经济信心急剧下降。这种情绪的转变不仅深刻影响了他们 的消费行为，也波及了零售、餐饮、航空和时尚等多个行业。 密歇根大学于8月29日公布的最新调查结果显示，8月的消费者信心指数与前一月相比下降了近6%，这 一数据逆转了6月和7月的小幅回升趋势，显示出消费者对经济前景的担忧正在加剧。 世界大型企业联合会的另一项调查也显示，就业市场上的悲观情绪正在蔓延，越来越多的受访者预计自 己的收入将会有所减少，这一现象在中产阶层中尤为显著。皮尤研究中心将中产阶层定义为年收入在家 庭收入中位数的三分之二至两倍之间的人群，目前这一范围大致在5.3万美元至16.1万美元之间。 随着消费者信心的下降，越来越多的美国人开始削减开支。密歇根大学的数据显示，在5月至7月期间， 超过70%的受访者表示计划在未来一年内减少购买价格上涨较大的商品。这一趋势在零售和餐饮业尤为 明显。沃尔玛注意到，中低收入顾客的购物篮中非必需品的比例有所减少。同时，一些车主为了节约开 支，选择推迟非必要的汽车维修。 在科尔士百货公司，顾 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the structural opportunities in the consumer sector driven by new demands, scenarios, and models, emphasizing emotional and personalized upgrades in consumer needs, particularly in high emotional value categories like trendy toys and beauty products [2][9] - The medical beauty industry is entering a new phase, with light medical beauty gaining traction due to its low risk and quick recovery, while domestic beauty brands are expected to accelerate their growth through innovative business models and enhanced channel efficiency [3][13] - The trend of emotional consumption is reshaping the market, with consumers increasingly motivated by personal connection and emotional resonance rather than mere necessity, leading to a shift in purchasing behavior [27] Consumer Sector Trends - The consumer market is experiencing a profound transformation, with service consumption becoming a primary growth engine, contributing significantly to overall consumption growth [4][28] - The service sector is evolving towards standardization and digitalization, with a focus on enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency, which is expected to drive industry consolidation [4][31] - The report anticipates three major trends in the consumer sector: simultaneous growth in high-end quality and cost-effective consumption, the rise of emotional value as a key decision factor, and the penetration of niche concepts like "green consumption" [10][28] Medical Beauty and Domestic Brands - The light medical beauty market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.9% from 2025 to 2028, driven by its appealing characteristics to price-sensitive consumers [13] - Domestic beauty brands are rapidly gaining market share, with a notable increase in the importance of content e-commerce channels, and are expected to leverage scientific narratives to strengthen consumer recognition [17][18] Trendy Toys and IP Economy - The trendy toy market is expanding across all age groups, with significant growth expected in the doll category, projected to increase from 26.8 billion in 2024 to 71.7 billion by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 23.7% [22][23] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards immersive experiences and innovative marketing strategies, enhancing consumer engagement and loyalty [26][27] Service Consumption Evolution - Service consumption is transitioning from a supplementary role to a core driver of economic growth, with a significant increase in the proportion of service spending in total consumer expenditure [4][28] - The report identifies four key trends in the service sector: supply chain innovation, demand segmentation, ecological layout, and globalization, which are expected to reshape the competitive landscape [31][36]

Core Viewpoint - Four Seasons Pharmaceutical (0460.HK) has seen a significant stock price increase, rising 7.53% to HKD 1.57, nearing its 3.5-year high of HKD 1.58, with a market capitalization exceeding HKD 14 billion. The stock has appreciated approximately 138% year-to-date, nearly doubling from its low of HKD 0.53 on April 7, 2023 [1] Group 1 - The company announced a framework agreement with Deep Origin Pharmaceutical Biotechnology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. to promote the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in the research and development of medical beauty products [1] - A joint AI R&D company will be established, led by Four Seasons Pharmaceutical, to explore AI-driven new medical beauty product development, marking a significant step in the company's strategic layout in the "AI + Medical Beauty" innovation sector [1] - The collaboration focuses on deep integration of "resources + technology" to create a "dry-wet closed-loop" R&D platform, enhancing the value of the company's medical beauty business through two main aspects: overcoming raw material bottlenecks and reducing costs while increasing efficiency [1] Group 2 - The AI R&D company will serve as the core of the company's ongoing efforts to deepen AI applications in medical beauty R&D, addressing unmet market needs and injecting momentum into the long-term development of the medical beauty business [1] - The initiative aims to enhance the company's core competitiveness and market value within the medical beauty industry through technological innovation and platform synergy [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Sihuan Pharmaceutical (00460) has seen a significant stock price increase, attributed to its strategic partnership with Deep Origin Pharmaceutical to establish an AI-driven R&D company focused on medical beauty products [1] - Sihuan Pharmaceutical's mid-term performance report indicates a revenue of 1.146 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.69%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 103 million RMB, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim cash dividend of 0.99 cents per share, reflecting its improved financial performance [1] Group 2 - The collaboration with Deep Origin Pharmaceutical signifies a substantial step in Sihuan Pharmaceutical's strategic layout in the "AI + Medical Beauty" innovation sector [1] - The company's medical beauty platform, Meiyan Space, has successfully enhanced strategic partnerships with various medical beauty institutions and implemented a marketing strategy 3.0 upgrade, leading to a significant increase in sales revenue [1] - The products developed under this initiative have received high market recognition, further driving the growth of the medical beauty segment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Sihuan Pharmaceutical (00460) has seen a significant stock price increase, attributed to its strategic partnership with Deep Origin Pharmaceutical to develop AI-driven medical beauty products [1] - Sihuan Pharmaceutical's stock rose over 7% during trading, with a current increase of 4.11%, reaching HKD 1.52, and a trading volume of HKD 168 million [1] - The company reported a 20.69% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of the year, amounting to RMB 1.146 billion, and achieved a profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 103 million, marking a turnaround from losses [1] Group 2 - The establishment of a joint AI research and development company signifies a substantial step in Sihuan Pharmaceutical's strategic layout in the "AI + medical beauty" innovation sector [1] - The company's medical beauty platform, Meiyan Space, has successfully enhanced strategic partnerships with various medical beauty institutions and implemented a marketing strategy upgrade, leading to a significant increase in sales revenue [1] - Sihuan Pharmaceutical plans to distribute an interim cash dividend of HKD 0.0099 per share [1]

2025 年 09 月 01 日 公司研究 评级：增持（首次覆盖） | 研究所： | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 马川琪 | S0350523050001 | | | | | macq@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 丁婧欣 | S0350124040002 | | | | dingjx@ghzq.com.cn | | [Table_Title] 2025Q2 美容治疗收入超指引上限，超 70%新客 来自私域及老带新 ——新氧（SY）动态点评报告 最近一年走势 相对标普 500 表现 | | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新氧 | | -13.71% | 347.81% | 365.41% | | 标普 | 500 | 1.91% | 9.28% | 14.37% | | 市场数据 | 2025/08/29 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（美元） | 3.84 | | 周价格区间（美元） 52 | 0.64-6.28 | | 总市值（百万美元 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Four Seasons Pharmaceutical has signed a framework agreement with Deep Origin Pharmaceutical Biotechnology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. to promote the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in the research and development of medical beauty products [1] - The collaboration aims to establish an AI research and development company led by Four Seasons Pharmaceutical, focusing on the exploration of AI-driven new medical beauty product development [1] - This initiative marks a significant step in the strategic layout of the "AI + Medical Beauty" innovation track for the company [1]

近日，四环医药发布2025年中期财报，医美及创新药业务呈全面开花态势，多款重磅产品陆续获批上 市，商业化价值加速兑现。 上半年，公司取得总收入约11.46亿元，同比增长约20.7%，期内公司拥有人应占溢利约为人民币1.03亿 元，成功实现扭亏为盈。 更值得关注的是，四环同步宣派中期现金股息每股人民币0.99分（相当于每股1.09港仙）。作为资本市 场的"分红常客"，公司自2010年上市以来至2024年底已完成33次分红，累计分红金额约75亿元，稳健的 回报能力尽显。 透过这份半年度答卷，不难发现四环背后潜藏着两大被忽视的预期差。而这恰是制约其估值修复的关键 所在。接下来，我们不妨深入剖析这份成绩单背后的价值逻辑。 另一方面，轩竹生物与惠升生物两大研发平台进入收获期，成为创新药业绩爆发的核心支撑。 随着多款核心管线成功获批并快速推进商业化，公司上半年研发开支同比下降21.9%至1.53亿元，研发 资源向商业化阶段精准倾斜，创新成果正加速转化为实际业绩。 以轩竹生物为例，其重磅抗肿瘤新药吡洛西利片（轩悦宁®）作为国内首个获批单药治疗HR+/HER2晚 期乳腺癌的CDK4/6抑制剂，凭借差异化临床优势迅速打开市场， ...