Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: The support from the ore end is loosening, and there is marginal inventory accumulation of refined nickel globally [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between reality and the macro - environment, and steel prices are oscillating [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, and macro and warehouse receipt disturbances may occur repeatedly [2][10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to changes on the supply side [2][14]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy disturbances are amplifying the fluctuations in the market [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,390, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,710. There were various changes in trading volume, prices of related products like 1 imported nickel, and premiums and discounts [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia will continue maintenance; the Philippine nickel industry welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved 2025 production target is higher than that of 2024 [4][5][7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the 2509 contract was 64,280, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and other data. There were also changes in spot - futures basis and prices of related lithium products [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; a Canadian company plans to build a lithium - carbonate production facility; China's battery exports in June 2025 showed growth in volume and proportion [11][13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,415, and the PS2508 contract was 41,330. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of related products and raw materials [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple photovoltaic EPC projects were terminated due to policy impacts on distributed photovoltaic power stations [14][16]. Trend Intensity - Nickel: 0 - Stainless Steel: 0 - Lithium Carbonate: 0 - Industrial Silicon: 1 - Polysilicon: 0 [4][10][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The upside potential is limited, and nickel prices are under pressure at low levels [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Inventory has been slightly digested, and steel prices have recovered, but the recovery is limited [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: The number of warehouse receipts has significantly decreased, and subsequent registration should be monitored [2][11]. - Industrial silicon: Market volatility has increased [2][15]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to policy changes [2][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,540 yuan, down 1,730 yuan from the previous day, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,640 yuan, down 90 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, premiums and discounts, and profit margins in the relevant industrial chain [5]. - **Macro and industry news**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia planned to continue maintenance and affect production; the Philippine nickel industry welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [5][6][8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 63,660 yuan, up 380 yuan. The warehouse receipts decreased by 5,481 hands. There were also changes in the basis, raw material prices, and lithium - salt product prices [12]. - **Macro and industry news**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and the Australian lithium concentrate shipments to China increased [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental data**: The Si2509 closing price was 8,045 yuan, up 65 yuan, and the PS2508 closing price was 36,515 yuan, up 1,005 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, profits, and inventory [16]. - **Macro and industry news**: Trina Solar signed a component supply agreement with an Austrian company [16][18].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: July 6, 2025 [1][4][30][56] - Report Type: Guotai Junan Futures Research Weekly Report on Green Finance and New Energy [1] - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [2][4][30][56] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - Core View: Nickel prices may be under pressure at low levels, with a slight downward cost expectation and limited upside potential [4] - Fundamental Analysis: The support at the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices. The cost of the pyrometallurgical path remains high in July, but the premium of Indonesian nickel ore has marginally declined. The market sentiment regarding increased Indonesian quotas has eased, and the speculation sentiment has cooled down. The smelting end, including stainless steel production cuts and nickel-iron inventory accumulation, may limit the upside space of refined nickel [4] - Inventory Changes: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,429 tons to 38,020 tons, while LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,824 tons to 202,470 tons. The nickel-iron inventory at the end of June reached a historical high, with a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 66% and 8%, respectively [6][7] - Market News: There were various news events related to nickel, including potential export restrictions from Canada, new project production in Indonesia, and the resumption of production at a nickel smelter [10] Stainless Steel - Core View: The supply and demand of stainless steel are weak, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5] - Fundamental Analysis: The short-term off-season demand is weak, and the negative feedback from the US tariff increase on steel products has been transmitted to the supply side. The production in July decreased year-on-year and month-on-month, while the inventory decreased slightly. The cost of stainless steel has decreased, and the profit margin has been slightly repaired [5] - Inventory Changes: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 0.20% week-on-week, with the cold-rolled and hot-rolled inventories decreasing by 0.53% and 0.18%, respectively [7] Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Core View: The upside space of industrial silicon is limited, and a short-selling strategy is recommended [30][34] - Price Trend: The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated widely this week, while the spot price increased [30] - Supply and Demand: The industry inventory decreased this week. The production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased due to the wet season, while the production in Xinjiang decreased. The futures warehouse receipts decreased, and the overall industry inventory continued to decline [31] - Market Outlook: The upside space of industrial silicon is limited due to the lack of policy support and the slowdown in warehouse receipt reduction. A short-selling strategy is recommended [34] Polysilicon - Core View: It is recommended to hold positions cautiously and pay attention to policy announcements [30][35] - Price Trend: The polysilicon futures price increased significantly this week, and the spot price also rose [30] - Supply and Demand: The upstream inventory of polysilicon continued to accumulate, and the terminal demand declined. The silicon wafer production decreased, and the enterprises planned to raise prices [32][33] - Market Outlook: The market is trading on the policy expectation of "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic industry. It is recommended to wait for policy details and hold positions cautiously [35] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate - Core View: The profit margin of the lithium carbonate futures market has opened up, and attention should be paid to the upside pressure [56] - Price Trend: The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated upward this week, while the spot price increased [56] - Supply and Demand: The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to remain high due to the increase in lithium ore prices and the profitability of external ore procurement. The demand is expected to weaken due to the "anti-involution" policy and the reduction of new energy subsidies in the US [57][58] - Market Outlook: It is recommended to short-sell on rallies, with the price of the 2507 contract expected to range between 55,000 and 65,000 yuan/ton [59]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel: No clear investment rating provided, but analysis suggests potential downward pressure and limited upside [4] - Stainless Steel: No clear investment rating, expected to trade in a narrow range [5] - Industrial Silicon: Recommended for short - selling, with limited upside potential [30] - Polysilicon: Suggested to hold positions cautiously and wait for policy details [30] - Lithium Carbonate: Recommended to short on rallies, with attention on upper - limit pressure [56] - Palm Oil: In a weak - reality, strong - expectation situation. Short - term seasonal short - selling is possible, and long - position building at low levels can be considered in late Q3 [85] - Soybean Oil: Weak reality persists, waiting for effective drivers from the US soybean side [84] 2. Core Views - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The support at the nickel ore end is weakening, and the smelting end restricts the upside of nickel prices. Stainless steel is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited upward momentum for prices [4][5] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The upside of industrial silicon is limited, and short - selling is recommended. Polysilicon should be observed for policy details, and short - selling can be considered after the market sentiment subsides [30][34] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures profit margin is open, but the upward pressure is significant due to factors such as anti - cut - throat competition and the cancellation of US new - energy subsidies [56][57] - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is currently influenced by international oil prices, with a weak - reality, strong - expectation situation. Soybean oil's weak reality continues, waiting for effective drivers from the US soybean side [84][85] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Price Movement**: The Shanghai nickel main contract and stainless steel main contract showed certain price fluctuations. For example, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 122,270 yuan/ton [14] - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore support is weakening, and stainless steel supply and demand are both weak. The nickel - iron inventory has reached a historical high [4][5] - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased, while LME nickel inventory decreased. Stainless steel social inventory decreased slightly [6][7] - **Market News**: There were various events such as potential export restrictions on nickel from Canada, project startups and shutdowns in Indonesia, and policy - related news in the Philippines and Indonesia [10][11] **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Price Movement**: Industrial silicon futures fluctuated widely, and spot prices rose. Polysilicon futures rose significantly, and spot prices increased [30] - **Supply and Demand**: Industrial silicon inventory decreased, and polysilicon upstream inventory continued to accumulate. The supply and demand of both showed different trends [31][32] - **Market Outlook**: Industrial silicon is recommended for short - selling, and polysilicon should be observed for policy details [34][35] **Lithium Carbonate** - **Price Movement**: The lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated upwards, with different price changes in futures and spot markets [56] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to remain high, but demand is suppressed by factors such as anti - cut - throat competition and US subsidy cancellation. Inventory continues to increase [57][58] - **Market Outlook**: Short - selling on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [59] **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil** - **Price Movement**: Palm oil 09 contract rose 1.15% last week, and soybean oil 09 contract fell 0.72% [84] - **Supply and Demand**: Palm oil has a situation of uncertain production and potential supply - demand changes. Soybean oil's weak reality persists [84][85] - **Market Outlook**: Palm oil is in a weak - reality, strong - expectation situation, and soybean oil is waiting for effective drivers from the US soybean side [84][85]

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated July 3, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core Views - **Nickel**: The support at the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: Inventory is slightly decreasing marginally, and steel prices are recovering but with limited elasticity [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The governance of involutionary competition mainly affects the downstream automotive industry demand, and attention should be paid to the amplification of volatility by macro - sentiment disturbances [2][10] - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term sentiment disturbances, and attention should be paid to the upward space [2][13] - **Polysilicon**: The futures market is expected to rise first and then fall [2][13] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,220 yuan, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,670 yuan. There were changes in trading volume, prices of related products, and spreads compared to previous periods [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia planned to continue maintenance and adjust production according to the market; the Philippine nickel industry welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [4][5][7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price of the 2507 contract was 63,980 yuan, and there were changes in trading volume, open interest, and prices of related products compared to previous periods [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; a rumored suspension of an Australian mining company was untrue; a Chilean joint - venture obtained a lithium - mining quota approval [11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,210 yuan, and the closing price of the PS2508 contract was 35,050 yuan. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, spreads, and prices of related products compared to previous periods [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Southern Regional Power Market started continuous settlement trial operation [13][15] - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report offers trading strategies and trend analysis for various commodities. For example, copper is supported by a weak dollar; zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has a positive outlook due to peak - season expectations; nickel's upside is limited by changes in the mining and smelting sectors; stainless steel prices are recovering with limited elasticity; and lithium carbonate may continue to experience high volatility [3][6]. Summary by Commodity Base Metals - **Copper**: The weak dollar supports copper prices. The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,920 yuan with a 1.31% daily increase, and the London copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,879 dollars with a - 0.17% change. Japanese JX Metal will cut refined copper production, and China's May copper ore imports decreased month - on - month [6]. - **Zinc**: It is at a short - term high. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,410 yuan with a 0.76% increase. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [9][10]. - **Lead**: There are peak - season expectations supporting prices. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,125 yuan with a - 0.58% change. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [12]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's support from the mining end is weakening, and the smelting end limits its upside. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,480 yuan. Stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and prices are recovering with limited elasticity. The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,620 yuan. There are multiple industry news such as project startups and production resumptions in the nickel industry [14][15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: High volatility may continue due to fundamental pressure and warehouse - receipt contradictions. The 2507 contract closed at 63,240 yuan. SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased [18][19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is affected by production - cut news, and attention should be paid to its upside space. Polysilicon requires attention to market sentiment. The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon closed at 8,030 yuan, and the PS2508 contract of polysilicon closed at 33,315 yuan [21]. - **Iron Ore**: It shows wide - range fluctuations with repeated expectations. The 12509 contract closed at 716.5 yuan with a 1.56% increase. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [24]. - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,995 yuan with a 0.98% increase, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,121 yuan with a 0.94% increase. There are changes in steel production, inventory, and demand [26][27]. - **Ferroalloys (Silicon Ferro, Manganese Ferro)**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. Silicon ferro is boosted by spot sentiment, and manganese ferro is boosted by port quotes. The silicon ferro 2509 contract closed at 5370 yuan, and the manganese ferro 2509 contract closed at 5670 yuan [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both show a tendency to be strong with fluctuations. The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 847.5 yuan with a 3.42% increase, and the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1421.5 yuan with a 1.86% increase [34][35]. - **Steam Coal**: It stabilizes with fluctuations as daily consumption recovers. The ZC2507 contract had no trading, and previous prices showed a decline [39][40]. - **Log**: It shows wide - range fluctuations with a contract - main switch. The 2507 contract closed at 819 yuan [43]. - **Paraxylene, PTA, MEG**: Paraxylene supply is shrinking, and the month - spread is strong; PTA is recommended for month - spread reverse arbitrage; MEG is weak on a single - side basis. Paraxylene's 9 - 1 month - spread shows a positive trend, and PTA and MEG have their own supply - demand and cost - related factors [46][50]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It will run with short - term fluctuations. The main contract of cis - polybutadiene rubber closed at 11,275 yuan. The industry has inventory and price changes [52]. - **Asphalt**: It shows weak fluctuations, and long - crack spread positions should consider taking profits. The BU2507 contract closed at 3,577 yuan. Refinery inventory rates decreased [55]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The near - end fundamentals in the producing areas have limited improvement, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention should be paid to the US soybean acreage report [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: Soybean meal rebounds with fluctuations, and risks related to the USDA report should be avoided. Soybean No.1 has a stable spot price and a rebounding and fluctuating futures price [5]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to auctions [5]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound consolidation [5]. - **Cotton**: Optimistic sentiment drives the futures price to rise with fluctuations [5]. - **Eggs**: Gradually arrange short positions in far - month contracts [5]. - **Hogs**: There is a short - term adjustment [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the lower level [5].

Report Overview - Report Date: June 27, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: The long - term expectation of the nickel ore end is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upside potential [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Both supply and demand are marginally weak, and steel prices will fluctuate at a low level [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: The number of warehouse receipts is increasing but the total amount is low, and the short - term trend is sideways [2][8] - Industrial Silicon: Affected by production cut news, attention should be paid to the upside space [2][11] - Polysilicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and attention should also be paid to the upside space [2][12] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,830 yuan, with various changes compared to previous periods. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,635 yuan. There were also detailed data on prices, premiums, spreads, and profits in the industrial chain [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; an Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue maintenance and affect production; the Philippine nickel industry welcomed the removal of the raw ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4][7] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of the 2507 and 2509 contracts showed different changes compared to previous periods. There were also data on warehouse receipts, basis, and prices of various lithium - related products in the industrial chain [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. China's automobile export volume is expected to grow, which may affect lithium demand [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: There were data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of the Si2509 and PS2508 contracts. Also included were data on spreads, basis, prices, profits, and inventories in the industrial chain, as well as raw material costs [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: A solar cell and module manufacturing plant in Indonesia jointly established by Longi Green Energy was launched, which will increase Indonesia's solar energy production capacity [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]

交产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月26日 现货价格及基差 品种 6月25日 6月24日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 13750 13850 -100 -0.72% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) -20 185 -205 -110.81% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 13700 13600 100 0.74% 非标价差 -70 -୧୧ -5 -7.69% 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 47.20 47.15 0.05 0.11% 泰铢/公斤 57.75 57.50 -0.25 -0.43% 胶水：国际市场：FOB中间价 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 12600 12600 0 0.00% 13200 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 13200 0 0.00% 元/吨 原料：市场主流价：海南 12400 12400 0.00% 0 外胶原料：市场主流价：海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 月间价差 单位 合约 6月25日 6月24日 涨跌 涨跌幅 9-1价差 -850 -870 20 2.30% 1-5价差 -20 -5 -25 -25 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Nickel and Stainless Steel - The expectation of the nickel ore end in the long - term is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity of nickel prices. Global refined nickel inventories are increasing marginally. Stainless steel supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [4][5]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has a fast short - term warehouse receipt clearance, but the upside space is limited. Polysilicon should maintain a short - selling strategy. The fundamentals of both show an oversupply situation [30][34][35]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium is increasing while the demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be under pressure, showing a weak oscillation. Opportunities for short - selling at high prices and reverse spreads should be awaited [62][63][64]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm oil is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term pressure comes from the resumption of production, and the strategy is mainly based on spread expressions. There are potential long - term bullish factors. Soybean oil is also in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern, with potential upward space after the third quarter [88][89][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The logic of the ore end is dull, and the smelting end restricts the upside space. The global refined nickel inventory is increasing marginally, and the nickel - iron is in a state of surplus and inventory accumulation. The price of nickel is affected by factors such as the expected increase in Indonesian quotas and the possible removal of the Philippine raw ore export ban [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,437 tons to 36,471 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 7,602 tons to 205,140 tons. The mid - June nickel - iron inventory increased by 58% year - on - year and 10% month - on - month [6][7]. - **Market News**: There are various events such as the potential suspension of nickel exports from Canada to the US, the trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, the resumption of production of a nickel smelter, and the shutdown of a cold - rolling mill [10]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Production and imports are decreasing marginally, the inventory pressure remains, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. In the long term, the price center may be difficult to lift significantly [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total social inventory of stainless steel increased by 1.04% week - on - week, with increases in both cold - rolled and hot - rolled inventories [7]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: The industrial silicon futures rebounded slightly this week, and the spot price remained stable. The futures closed at 7,390 yuan/ton on Friday [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The industry inventory is de - stocking again. The supply is expected to increase as factories in Xinjiang and Sichuan continue to resume production. The demand from downstream industries has short - term increases in some aspects but is still mainly based on rigid demand [31][32]. - **Future Outlook**: The strategy is to short at high prices. The follow - up focus is on the warehouse receipt situation. The high inventory restricts the upside space of the futures price [34]. Polysilicon - **Price Movement**: The polysilicon futures declined significantly this week, and the spot price is also expected to decrease [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The upstream inventory is slightly de - stocking. The supply is expected to increase as some factories resume production, while the terminal demand is declining, and the silicon wafer production is expected to be adjusted downward [31][32][33]. - **Future Outlook**: The strategy is to short at high prices. The price is expected to continue to decline towards the real cost line [35]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The main contract of carbonate lithium oscillated downward. The 2507 contract closed at 59,820 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 60,400 yuan/ton [62]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing as the production and operating rate of the smelting end are growing. The demand is weakening as new energy vehicle sales show no significant increase, and the energy storage demand is expected to decline after reaching a peak in May. The inventory is accumulating [63]. - **Future Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - selling at high prices after the long - buying intention of the near - month contract is clear and reverse spreads after the end of June are recommended [64][65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Palm Oil - **Last Week's Logic**: The 09 contract rose by 4.86% due to the sudden positive news of the US biodiesel obligation and the geopolitical tension in the Middle East [88]. - **This Week's Logic**: The production in Malaysia is expected to be flat or slightly decrease in June. The export is strong, and there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in June. It is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term strategy is based on spread expressions, and long - buying can be considered at low levels before the fourth quarter [89]. Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Logic**: The 09 contract rose by 4.75% due to the sudden positive news of the US biodiesel obligation and the geopolitical tension in the Middle East [88]. - **This Week's Logic**: Internationally, the US EPA's policy will lead to an increase in the demand for soybean oil. Domestically, the inventory is accumulating currently but may reach a peak in July. It is also in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern, and long - buying opportunities can be observed in the fourth quarter [90][91].

Group 1: Report Overview - Date: June 19, 2025 [4][9][13] - Report Focus: Green finance and new energy commodities, including nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel: Concerns at the mine end have cooled, and smelting supply has full elasticity [2][4] - Stainless steel: Negative feedback has led to increased production cuts, resulting in a weak supply - demand balance and low - level fluctuations [2][4] Fundamental Data - Nickel: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 118,480 yuan, down 90 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 76,829 lots, down 23,626 lots [4] - Stainless steel: The closing price of the main contract was 12,525 yuan, up 45 yuan; trading volume was 130,738 lots, up 25,428 lots [4] News - Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered trial production; a nickel smelter resumed production; an Indonesian冷轧厂 planned to continue maintenance from June to July [4][5][7] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [8] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Core View - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipt clearance has accelerated, and potential purchases should be noted [2][9] Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2507 contract was 60,480 yuan, up 260 yuan; warehouse receipts decreased by 1,746 lots [9] News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose; Yahua Group planned to restructure its lithium business; Ukraine opened lithium mining to private investors [10][11] Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [11] Group 4: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts continue to be cleared, and attention should be paid to the upside space [2][13] - Polysilicon: Upstream production has resumed, and the futures price has fallen [2][13] Fundamental Data - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 7,425 yuan, up 65 yuan; social inventory was 57.2 million tons, down 1.5 million tons [13] - Polysilicon: The closing price of the PS2507 contract was 33,370 yuan, down 640 yuan; factory inventory was 27.5 million tons, up 0.6 million tons [13] News - The US Senate's draft bill on the photovoltaic market did not ease industry concerns [13][15] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1; polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [15]