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热点思考 | 就业“新趋势”?(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-05-29 09:45
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new trends in employment and wage data for urban employees in 2024, highlighting shifts from high salary pursuits to a focus on reducing work intensity and improving hourly wages across various sectors [1]. Group 1: Employment Trends - Trend 1: Employment is shifting from "pursuing high salaries" to "anti-involution," with a notable decrease in average wage growth for urban non-private sector employees, which has dropped to 2.8% in 2024, down 6.8 percentage points since 2021 [2][9]. - The transportation, leather, and clothing industries have shown resilience in wage growth, with transportation revenue growth exceeding 8% in 2024, while the average wage in the non-private sector is 124,000 yuan [2][9]. - Employment is increasingly moving towards sectors with shorter working hours and higher hourly wages, such as healthcare, where weekly working hours decreased by 1.5 hours and hourly wages increased by 9.3 yuan from 2021 to 2023 [2][32]. Group 2: Regional Wage Convergence and Employment Consumption - Trend 2: There is a convergence in wage growth between eastern and western regions, with the wage growth rate in eastern urban non-private sectors at 7.5% from 2019 to 2023, compared to 7.1% in the western regions, narrowing the gap from 0.8 percentage points in 2019 to 0.5 percentage points in 2024 [4][52][53]. - Employment in the service sector is increasingly migrating towards the western regions, driven by stronger wage growth resilience in these areas, particularly in hospitality and retail sectors [4][75]. - The shift in consumer behavior from local to cross-province consumption is further concentrating employment in the service sector in the western regions, with significant growth in consumer spending in these areas [5][80]. Group 3: Wage Growth in Private and Flexible Employment - Trend 3: Some private and flexible employment sectors are experiencing wage increases, particularly in the service industry, where private sector wage growth is higher than in non-private sectors, with education and retail showing increases of 8.9% and 5.3% respectively [6][96]. - The average wage growth for private sector employees has decreased to 1.7%, while flexible employment, particularly in new roles like ride-hailing drivers and delivery personnel, has seen a rise in average monthly income to 10,506 yuan, significantly higher than traditional employment [7][114]. - New flexible employment roles are characterized by higher pay but also increased work intensity, with platform-based workers averaging 54.3 hours per week, compared to traditional workers [7][122].
每日债市速递 | 央行公开市场单日净回笼6820亿
Wind万得· 2025-05-06 22:34
Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 405 billion yuan on May 6, resulting in a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan for the day, as 1,087 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - Overnight and seven-day pledged repo rates for deposit-taking institutions decreased by over 7 basis points [3] Group 2: Interbank Rates and Bonds - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit was around 1.74%, showing little change from the previous day [7] - The yields on major interbank bonds showed slight variations, with one-year government bonds at 1.4625%, two-year at 1.4525%, and ten-year at 1.6260% [9] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Caixin China Services PMI for April recorded 50.7, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from March, marking the lowest level in seven months [13] - The composite PMI output index fell by 0.7 percentage points to 51.1, indicating a slowdown in domestic enterprise production and operational activities [13] Group 4: Trade and Economic Relations - U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated expectations for progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations in the coming weeks, suggesting that the 145% tariffs imposed by Trump cannot be maintained long-term [15] - California's governor stated that Trump's tariff policies have significantly harmed the state, emphasizing continued openness to trade with China [15] Group 5: Corporate Bond Market - Apple issued corporate bonds for the first time in 2023 amid increasing pressure from bond investors due to trade concerns [17] - A survey by JPMorgan revealed that 64% of clients held a neutral stance on U.S. Treasury bonds [17]