统计局三季度生猪数据点评 ———— 杨蕊霞 投资咨询号：Z0011333 国投期货研究院 2025-10-20 10 月 20 日，统计局公布三季度经济数据。涉及生猪养殖方面，前三季度， 全国生猪出栏 52992 万头，同比增加 962 万头，增长 1.8%，增速较上半年提 高 1.2 个百分点，连续 3 个季度保持增长。猪肉产量 4368 万吨，同比增加 128 万吨，增长 3.0%。三季度末，全国生猪存栏 43680 万头，同比增加 986 万头， 增长 2.3%，环比增加 1233 万头，增长 2.9%。其中，能繁母猪存栏 4035 万 头，同比减少 28 万头，下降 0.7%，环比减少 9 万头，略降 0.2%。 能繁母猪存栏方面，9 月末能繁母猪存栏 4035 万头，同比减少 28 万头， 下降 0.7%，环比减少 9 万头，略降 0.2%。官方数据口径显示，9 月能繁母猪 环比前月下滑，与涌益咨询、上海钢联等咨询机构给出的样本数据趋势一致。由 于猪价持续下跌至低位，仔猪销售及生猪育肥环节目前均陷入亏损，9 月能繁母 猪环比下降，行业开始进入去产能周期。 三季度末，全国生猪存栏 43680 万头，同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [9][62]. Core Views - The swine sector is undergoing deepening regulation, with a focus on value reassessment opportunities. The report suggests that the price of pigs may face downward pressure in the short term due to increased market supply, but regulatory measures are expected to stabilize prices in the long run [1][16]. - The poultry sector is anticipated to improve, with data indicating a rise in the number of breeding stock and a shift towards self-breeding [2][27]. - The animal health sector is seeing a potential improvement in competitive dynamics, particularly with the progress of clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines, which could enhance market conditions [3][35]. - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands gaining strength and the market expected to continue its rapid growth [9][55]. Summary by Sections Swine - The swine industry is in a regulatory phase aimed at controlling prices through capacity reduction. The average price of pigs is reported at 11.02 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 0.87 yuan/kg. The number of breeding sows is stable at 40.38 million heads [15][16]. - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture [1][16]. Poultry - The poultry sector shows signs of improvement, with a total of 80.33 thousand sets of breeding stock updated in the first three quarters of 2025. The report highlights a shift towards self-breeding, with self-bred stock accounting for 59% [2][27]. - Recommended companies in this sector are Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [2][27]. Animal Health - The competitive landscape in the animal health sector is expected to improve, supported by government initiatives to optimize the veterinary drug industry. The report notes that clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines are underway, which could lead to commercialization [3][35]. - Recommended companies include Kexin Biological and Ruipu Biological, with additional focus on Huisheng Biological, Zhongmu Biological, and others [3][35]. Planting - The report indicates a declining pig-to-grain price ratio, with the current ratio at 4.95. The prices of corn and soybean meal have shown slight fluctuations, with corn priced at 2181 yuan/ton [39][44]. - Companies to watch include Suqian Agricultural Development, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [7][44]. Feed - Feed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with the price for fattening pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg. The report notes a year-on-year increase in industrial feed production [45][46]. - Recommended companies include Haida Group and He Feng Shares [45][46]. Pets - The pet market is projected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The report highlights the increasing consumption per pet, with dogs averaging 2961 yuan and cats 2020 yuan annually [55][56]. - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares, with Ruipu Biological in the pet medical sector [9][55].

Group 1: Swine Industry - The rapid decline in pig prices has created a resistance to price drops, with secondary fattening entering the market causing a slight rebound, but the overall trend remains downward, and the entire industry is currently in a state of loss [2][3] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter this week is 128.25 kg per head, which remains in a historically high range, indicating that inventory levels have not significantly decreased despite falling prices [2][3] - In the coming months, pig slaughter is expected to increase month-on-month, and with enhanced control over secondary fattening, the seasonal accumulation space is limited, suggesting further downward pressure on pig prices [2][3] Group 2: Poultry Industry - As temperatures rise, the consumption of animal protein has been relatively weak, leading to continuous price adjustments in the poultry sector, with the overall industry showing signs of bottoming out [3] - The recent weak pricing environment has increased losses for slaughter enterprises, while the enthusiasm of farmers to sell has further pressured prices [3] - Yellow feather chicken prices have remained relatively strong due to improved downstream demand and supply contraction, indicating potential for better profitability as consumer demand gradually improves [3] Group 3: Cattle Industry - As of October 10, the price of live cattle in Shandong Province is 27.17 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.11% month-on-month but an increase of 13.78% year-on-year, with expectations for steady price increases as the consumption peak season approaches [4] - The average purchase price for milk cows in major production areas is 3.04 yuan/kg, remaining stable month-on-month but down 2.08% year-on-year, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize and recover in the coming year [4] - Recent increases in calf and live cattle prices suggest the potential for a new cattle cycle, with the industry outlook expected to improve steadily [4] Group 4: Planting Industry - The recent harvest of new corn has caused some short-term price impacts, while ongoing negotiations regarding soybean imports between China and the U.S. create uncertainty in soybean prices [5] - The planting sector is expected to stabilize at the bottom, with the potential for improved conditions if there is a substantial reduction in grain production due to global weather disturbances [5] - The country continues to promote agricultural revitalization by increasing grain yields, which may enhance the planting industry's outlook [5]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 20 日 猪肉猪价低位震荡，关注产能去化 [Table_Title2] 农林牧渔行业周报第 34 期 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 分析师：魏心欣 邮箱：weixx@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120524100002 联系电话： 种植产业链：据农业农村部，9 月 25 日，农业农村部召开全国 粮油作物大面积单产提升暨"三秋"生产视频会，部党组书 记、部长韩俊出席会议并讲话。会议强调，要深入学习贯彻习 近平总书记重要指示精神，认真落实党中央、国务院决策部 署，深入推进粮油作物大面积单产提升行动，扎实抓好"三 秋"农业生产，奋力夺取全年粮食和农业丰收，夯实明年夏季 粮油生产基础，为经济社会高质量发展提供有力支撑。会议强 调，要推动大面积单产提升行动走深走实、见行见效，因地制 宜抓好技术集成，聚焦影响单产提升的卡点制约，分作物、分 区域集成熟化"一县一策"综合性解决方案。要加快高性能农 机装备推广应用，着力推进农机购置与应用补贴"优机优 补"，大力推广应用高性能播种机、高效耕整地机具、农用植 保无人机、高效 ...

行 华福证券 农林牧渔 2025 年 10 月 20 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 猪价重心下移，9 月三方口径能繁去化 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：（1）9 月销售简报：猪企出栏缩量、均重回升。出栏方面， 9 月 17 家猪企合计出栏生猪 1414.12 万头，环比-6.62%，同比+21.94%。均 重方面，不考虑仔猪、种猪销售影响，测算 4 家上市猪企有生猪出栏均重 均值 121.33 公斤，环比+1.63%。（2）上周行情：二育进场，猪价跌后略 有反弹。国庆中秋假期后，猪肉需求阶段性回落，周初猪价偏弱下跌。随 后日常消费逐步恢复，加之肥标价差扩大增强北方散户惜售情绪，并吸引 二次育肥入场，共同推动行情小幅反弹。10 月 17 日全国生猪均价为 11.18 元/公斤，周环比-0.06 元/公斤。短期来看，10 月钢联/卓创/涌益样本企业 出栏预计环比+5.48%/+7.32%/+5.14%，供应增量明显，短期猪价预计仍偏 弱运行为主。长期来看，近期猪价重心下移，养殖亏损程度加深，叠加产 能调控政策推进，行业产能去化预期增强，有望推动长期猪价中枢上移。9 月 涌 益 / 钢 联 / 卓 创 ...

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 农林畜 2025年10月20日 农林畜研究员：张晓君 从业资格证号：F0242716 交易咨询证号：Z0011864 联系方式： 0371-65617380 题目 2025年前三季度生猪产业数据的相关 思考 目录 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年10月20日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 1、'同比'有效意义不足 ，关注2023年同期比较 2、 生猪产能周期的问题与思考 思考1） 当前生猪产能周期处于什么阶段？ 思考2） 生猪期货交易主线逻辑？ 期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 正文： 今日早间，国家统计局公布前三季度生猪产业相关数据，具体内容如下： 前三季度，全国猪牛羊禽肉产量7312万吨，同比增长3.8%。其中，猪肉、牛肉、禽肉产量 分别增长3.0%、3.3%、7.2%，羊肉产量下降4.3%。 生猪存、出栏继续增长。 前三季度，全国生猪出栏52992万头，同比增加962万头，增长1.8%，增速较上半年提高1 .2个百分点，连续3个季度保持增长。 数据来源：国家统计局 期货研究院 格林大华期货研 ...

自10月以来，生猪期现价格连连下探，均已触及年内低位。据农业农村部最新数据，10月第1周全国生 猪平均价格12.90元/公斤，比前一周下跌2.8%，同比下跌29.5%。期货方面，近月合约2511价格已逼近 11000元/吨的关口，主力合约2601价格10月以来的跌幅超9%。 "在长假期间，生猪现货价格快速回落，部分区域回落幅度接近1元/公斤，另有部分区域跌破11元/公斤 大关，这使得近月期货价格也不得不向11000元/吨的水平靠拢。"中信建投（601066）期货养殖分析师 魏鑫向记者表示。 "具体看，9月下旬后行业面临仔猪及育肥猪双亏的局面，淘汰母猪的情绪有所增加，产能去化速度较前 期有所提升，但超预期去产能现象还未发生。短期看，9月至今，出栏体重仍处于环比增长态势，猪价 的大幅下跌也未使得短期产能明显出清，前期的恐慌出栏可能主要集中在无法继续压栏的大体重猪上。 因此，在需求未大幅度提升的情况下，短期猪价反弹力度有限，但继续大幅下跌并维持在现金流成本以 下在较长时间内也难看到，因为短期出栏压力小幅缓解后，养殖端只要不出现恐慌性抛售，生猪价格或 维持底部震荡为主。"侯晓瑞说。 记者注意到，自5月底以来，国家相关 ...

Core Insights - The "insurance + futures" model has significantly benefited local pig farmers in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, providing them with financial security against price fluctuations in the pig market [1][2][3] - The project has seen substantial growth, with the 2024 initiative covering 36,200 pigs and amounting to approximately 62.29 million yuan, a ninefold increase from the previous year [2][4] - Farmers have gained a better understanding of futures pricing, allowing them to make informed decisions about when to sell their livestock, thus mitigating potential losses [3][4][6] Group 1: Project Implementation and Impact - The "insurance + futures" project was first introduced in 2023, providing a safety net for farmers during volatile market conditions, with one farmer receiving 670,000 yuan in compensation [2][4] - In 2024, the project provided a total compensation of 2.67 million yuan, with a compensation rate of 107%, indicating its effectiveness in risk management [2][4] - Local government support has been crucial, with subsidies covering 15% to 25% of the insurance premiums, enhancing farmer participation [4][5] Group 2: Farmer Engagement and Education - Farmers have shown increased interest in the "insurance + futures" model, recognizing its role in stabilizing income and managing risks associated with pig farming [5][6] - The model addresses the challenges faced by small farmers, who often lack the resources and knowledge to engage directly with futures markets [6][7] - Continuous communication and education efforts by the project team have helped farmers deepen their understanding of futures trading and risk management [6][7] Group 3: Future Outlook - The "insurance + futures" model is expected to evolve from being policy-driven to market-driven, with increasing farmer willingness to participate in insurance schemes [7] - The anticipated continuation of the project into 2025 reflects growing enthusiasm among local farmers for risk management solutions [5][7] - The model is seen as a sustainable approach to enhancing the resilience of the pig farming industry in the region, contributing to long-term growth and stability [7]

当前时点重点推荐生猪养殖板块 20251019 摘要 当前生猪行业处于近几年最佳行情周期，但周期底部预计将明显拉长， 长期维持极低价格的可能性不大，建议关注成本和现金流优势企业。 市场供给增加主要由于中小养殖商压栏情绪浓厚，导致市场供给增加， 需求端恢复不足以抵消供给过剩压力，猪价下跌难以通过需求端解释。 大型养殖集团产能扩张接近尾声，中小养殖场不再是主力，预计 2026 年下半年或现周期拐点，外部融资减少，企业进入现金流和成本控制关 键阶段。 建议重点关注具有成本优势和现金流优势的养殖企业，如牧原、温氏、 德康和神农，以及巨星、利华股份和天康生物等标的。 生猪行业未来挑战包括产能过剩导致价格低迷和外部融资减少带来的资 金压力，具有成本和现金流优势的大型企业将更具优势。 目前是加仓养殖板块的重要时机，大型养殖集团产能扩张接近尾声，为 明年调控打下基础，建议投资者全面提升养殖板块配置比例。 神农。此外，还应重点关注巨星、利华股份和天康生物。这些公司在成本控制 和现金流管理方面表现突出，是值得投资者重点配置的标的。 生猪行业未来面临哪些挑战？如何应对这些挑战？ 生猪行业未来面临主要挑战包括产能过剩导致价格持续低迷 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures showed significant divergence in performance from October 13 to October 17, with precious metals, black metals, and base metals leading gains, while energy, chemicals, and agricultural products experienced collective declines [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil fell by 5.54% and crude oil by 6.34% for the week; in the black metal sector, iron ore dropped by 3.02%, while coking coal and coking coke rose by 1.55% and 0.57%, respectively [1] - Precious metals saw substantial increases, with Shanghai gold rising by 10.90% and Shanghai silver by 10.53% [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - The oil market faced multiple bearish pressures, with WTI crude futures falling below $80 and Brent crude near $82 per barrel; domestic crude oil prices dropped by 12.41% over the week [2] - OPEC+ continued its production increase plan, adding 137,000 barrels per day, while U.S. shale oil production showed resilience, slightly increasing to 13.636 million barrels per day [2][3] - Demand weakened significantly, with U.S. refinery utilization dropping by 6.7 percentage points to 85.7%, and Chinese refinery utilization at a low of 81.23% [2] Group 3: Pork Market Trends - Domestic live pig futures continued to decline, with the main contract dropping 3.87% to a three-month low, driven by slow trading sentiment and increased outflow from large-scale farms [4] - The supply side remains robust, with the number of breeding sows at 40.38 million, indicating a sufficient long-term supply base [4][5] - Despite expectations for improved demand due to cooler temperatures, actual sales of pork have not met expectations, leading to continued price pressure [4] Group 4: Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3%, with core CPI rising by 1.0% [6][7] - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 4.4% drop in food prices, which accounted for a significant portion of the overall decrease [6] - The export growth rate for September was 8.3%, with a cumulative growth of 6.1% for the first three quarters, indicating a recovery in trade despite challenges with U.S. exports [10][11]