1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and weak operation [1][3] - The aluminum ingot prices are expected to have short - term weak fluctuations and be adjusted in the range recently, with the subsequent focus on the inventory - consumption trend [3][4] 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs For Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown and maintenance during the Spring Festival are expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with individual ones after January 20, affecting about 16,200 tons of daily output [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] For Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, traders are waiting for the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium for US interest rate policy clues. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a photovoltaic industry symposium to strengthen investment management [2] - In terms of supply, the operating output of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly. In terms of demand, although the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, the consumption from terminals to processed materials is hard to exceed expectations due to the off - season. The growth of some industries has slowed down, and some export orders have declined. The construction industry is still in a super - seasonal decline [3] - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%. In some sub - fields, the operating rate increased, while the recycled aluminum operating rate decreased slightly. It is expected that some fields will continue to recover in late August, and the "Golden September and Silver October" may further boost demand [3] - On August 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 607,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Thursday and 20,000 tons from last Monday [3] - Macro - level interest rate cut expectations support prices. It is expected to be mainly adjusted in the range recently, and the subsequent focus is on the inventory - consumption trend. The off - season and actual impacts are expected to put pressure on the upside [4]

投资建议：维持"优于大市"评级 新疆神火盈利能力依然最强，2025H1 净利润达到12.4 亿元，如果销量是40万吨，那么吨净利润3088 元；云南神火迎来投产后首个满产年度，2025H1净利润9.83 亿元，如果销量是47 万吨，那么吨净利润 2091 元。 风险提示：氧化铝涨价风险，铝价下跌风险，煤炭价格下跌风险。 2025H1 公司归母净利润下降17%。2025H1实现营收204.3亿元（同比+12.1%），归母净利润19 亿元 （同比-16.6%），扣非归母净利润20.1 亿元（同比-6.8%），经营活动产生的现金流量净额44.3 亿元。 公司盈利下降主因煤炭价格下跌。2025H1 煤炭产量371 万吨恢复正常，产量增加，成本下降，2025H1 煤炭业务生产成本682 元/吨，比2024 年862 元/吨有明显下降。但是煤炭价格下降更多，2025H1 煤炭售 价773 元/吨，比2024年下降260 元/吨。2025H1 煤炭单吨毛利润91 元，比2024 年下降78 元。自6 月底 开始，焦煤价格触底反弹，截至8 月中旬，永城无烟煤和许昌贫瘦煤价格已反弹200-300 元/吨，三季度 公司煤炭版块盈 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of selecting valuable research reports and understanding market trends to avoid missing investment opportunities [1] - The aluminum electrolysis capacity is expected to have "zero growth," with a combination of declining costs and stable profits providing a "double insurance" for the sector, leading to an upward revision of profit expectations, with some companies offering dividend yields as high as 8% [1] - Following the trends in optical modules and PCBs, the article discusses potential successors in the AI computing power chain, identifying a specific segment that aligns with three key thematic elements, providing an analysis of high-value links in the industry chain [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - end is relatively bullish before the September Fed interest - rate meeting, and the bottom support for domestic and overseas aluminum prices is becoming more obvious. It is advisable to be bullish after price corrections. For alumina, market speculation sentiment has cooled, and prices are returning to the weak fundamental situation, with short - term prices expected to fluctuate weakly above 3000 - 3100 yuan [2][77]. - In the aluminum market, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is slowly increasing, while demand shows seasonal weakness but may be driven by photovoltaic and automotive sectors. Aluminum inventory is approaching its peak, which may support prices. In the alumina market, raw material supply is affected by multiple factors, production capacity has marginal changes, and the import window is opened periodically [2][77]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Outlook for Aluminum Macro - The US July PPI soared, reducing traders' bets on a Fed rate cut in September. The US is negotiating tariff agreements, and the tariff issue between the US and India has attracted attention in the aluminum market. The Russian and US presidents are scheduled to hold a meeting [2]. Industrial Supply - In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to increase to around 4430 tons, mainly from the复产 of Anshun Aluminum Plant and Baise Yinhai. Some replacement and transfer projects have production plans, and new replacement capacities are expected to be put into production in 2026 - 2027. South32 expects a production decline at Mozal in the 2026 fiscal year [2]. Industrial Demand - Apparent demand shows seasonal weakness. In July 2025, China's unforged aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. In August, the increase in photovoltaic module production may drive aluminum consumption, and the automotive industry also contributes to aluminum demand [2]. Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the total inventory of aluminum ingots and billets increased slightly, with the increase rate slowing down. Aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to reach its peak soon. LME aluminum inventory has an impact on price support [2]. Trading Logic and Strategy - Before the September Fed meeting, the non - ferrous metal market is mainly influenced by interest - rate cut and inflation expectations. It is advisable to be bullish on aluminum prices after corrections. Pay attention to the opportunity of the widening of the monthly spread when aluminum ingot inventory starts to decline. For derivatives, it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Strategy Outlook for Alumina Raw Material End - Domestic bauxite mines in Shanxi and Henan are affected by multiple factors and have difficulty releasing production capacity in the short term. Guinea's bauxite shipments recovered in the first week of August, but the supply of spot goods decreased. The current bauxite supply is sufficient in absolute terms, and the spot price is expected to remain firm [77]. Supply End - As of mid - August, the national alumina operating capacity increased, but the actual production decreased marginally. Some alumina enterprises in Guangxi and Shanxi are affected by maintenance and ore supply, and the southern import window is opened [77]. Trading Strategy - The alumina price is expected to fluctuate weakly above 3000 - 3100 yuan in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [77]. Other Aspects Aluminum Market - LME market performance, aluminum ingot import and export profits, and speculative fund net positions are presented through charts [4][6][8]. - Domestic and overseas aluminum inventory performance, including social inventory, bonded - area inventory, and LME inventory, is shown in charts [15][16][18]. - Price differences, including regional price differences, basis differences, and monthly spread differences, are presented in charts [20][22][27]. - Aluminum primary processing product processing fees, such as aluminum rod and aluminum pole processing fees, are shown in charts [32][36]. - The recycled aluminum alloy market has supply - demand imbalances, with tight supply and weak demand. There are opportunities for arbitrage [38]. - The supply - side situation of electrolytic aluminum includes production volume, profit, and capacity change expectations, both domestically and overseas [45][47][49]. - Aluminum processing enterprise start - up rates show a mild recovery, with different trends in various sub - sectors [54]. - Demand from downstream industries such as photovoltaic, automotive, real estate, power, home appliances, and exports has different performance characteristics [57][60][63][66][69][72]. Alumina Market - Bauxite resource tax rates and the comparison of different mines are presented [83][85]. - Alumina profit has increased, and different regions have different profit levels [95][98][99]. - Alumina supply and demand are in a state of theoretical excess, and production capacity and output have marginal changes [100][102]. - The alumina import window is opened periodically, and net imports may decline slightly [103][109]. - Alumina social inventory has a marginal decline, and the supply of spot goods is expected to improve [110][113][117]. - Alumina spot trading is in a state of discount and light trading volume [118]. - Alumina overseas and domestic price trends and transaction prices are presented [119][120][123]. - Alumina warehouse receipts have increased significantly [124].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights a strong performance in the non-ferrous metal sector, with the Zhongzheng Subdivision Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index (000811) rising by 2.13% as of August 15, 2025, and significant gains in constituent stocks such as Hailiang Co., Ltd. (002203) up by 9.88% and Ming Tai Aluminum Industry (601677) up by 7.09% [1] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has seen a 2.22% increase, reaching a new intraday high, and has accumulated a 2.83% rise over the past week [1] - The liquidity of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF is notable, with a turnover rate of 9.76% and a transaction volume of 53.32 million yuan, alongside an average daily transaction volume of 36.43 million yuan over the past month [1] Group 2 - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF has attracted significant capital inflow, with a net subscription of 18 million units, indicating strong investor interest [3] - The latest scale of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF reached 538 million yuan, a one-year high, and its share count reached 477 million, also a six-month high [4] - The fund has seen a net inflow of 5.66 million yuan recently, with a total of 28.38 million yuan net inflow over the past ten trading days, averaging 2.84 million yuan per day [4] Group 3 - The electrolytic aluminum industry is experiencing an improved supply-demand balance, with domestic production capacity growth stagnating and utilization rates nearing their limits, leading to a tightening supply outlook [4] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase due to emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and ultra-high voltage projects, contributing to a sustained tight supply situation [4] - The price of alumina is declining, stabilizing production profits in the electrolytic aluminum sector, which enhances market expectations for high dividend capabilities [4] Group 4 - Gold prices are currently fluctuating at high levels, supported by interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks, with central banks globally continuing to increase gold reserves [5] - The copper market is facing supply disruptions, with major copper mining companies reporting slight declines in production and adjusting annual output forecasts downward due to various operational challenges [5] - Overall, the non-ferrous metal sector is highlighted as having significant investment value, driven by supply-side constraints, new demand drivers, and economic cycle resonance [6] Group 5 - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) encompasses a comprehensive range of metals, including gold, copper, and rare earths, with a copper content of 31%, making it a leading choice among similar funds [7] - The ETF's top holdings include major players in the copper and gold sectors, such as Zijin Mining and China Aluminum, indicating a strong focus on key industrial metals [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into potential investment opportunities and market dynamics. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [4] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 46.09 in July 2025, down 6.16% from the previous month [4] - London gold prices increased by 1.07% compared to the previous week [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Key enterprises' average daily crude steel production hit a new low for the year in late July [5] - Price changes included rebar down 0.60%, cement price index down 0.37%, rubber down 1.71%, coke up 3.79%, coking coal up 3.55%, and iron ore up 1.31% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.15 percentage points, while cement and asphalt production rates increased by 10.00% and decreased by 0.6% respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Titanium dioxide and flat glass prices changed by -0.39% and 0.00% respectively, with glass profit at -58 CNY/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1353 CNY/ton [6] - The flat glass operating rate was 73% this week [6] Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity prices showed cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum increasing by 1.26%, 0.33%, and 0.68% respectively, with corresponding profit changes of +6.01%, -18.19%, and +4.26% [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate was 74.35%, down 0.10 percentage points [7] Subcategories - The electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate reached a new high since 2012 [8] - Graphite electrode price was 18,000 CNY/ton, unchanged, with a comprehensive profit of 1357.4 CNY/ton, down 7.35% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,630 CNY/ton, up 0.68%, with estimated profit at 3,050 CNY/ton (excluding tax), up 4.26% [8] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.24 this week [9] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel was 140 CNY/ton, while the price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel was 380 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton [9] - The price difference between medium-thick plates and rebar steel was 160 CNY/ton this week [9] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in July 2025 was 47.10%, down 0.6 percentage points [10] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1200.73 points, down 2.56% [10] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 78.70%, up 0.30 percentage points [10] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.23%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being engineering machinery at +6.21% [11] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 index was 47.28% and 69.23% respectively [11] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector is 0.57, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]

Summary of Aluminum Industry Research Conference Call Industry Overview - The aluminum supply is strictly limited by power factors, with domestic capacity constraints and high overseas investment costs leading to limited supply, supporting high aluminum prices [1][3] - Despite a global economic slowdown, demand for non-ferrous metals shows resilience, with increased aluminum demand driven by new energy, grid construction, and smart technologies [1][4] Key Insights - The capital expenditure in the electrolytic aluminum sector is contracting, with an increase in cash flow and dividend payout ratios, achieving the highest dividend yield in the market (over 5%) [1][7] - The aluminum and coal industries have successfully implemented supply-side reforms due to their impact on social stability, while steel and chemical industries face challenges due to local government pressures [1][8] - Aluminum demand is more resilient than copper, benefiting from rapid grid construction and new energy vehicle developments, contributing significantly to demand growth [1][15] Supply Dynamics - Both domestic and international aluminum supply are in a tight balance, with overseas planned capacity limited and actual production progress falling short of expectations [1][18] - The industrial support capacity is currently poor, with raw materials heavily reliant on imports, restricting large-scale aluminum production [1][19] Economic Impact - The interest rate cut cycle is favorable for non-ferrous asset allocation, with low inventories of copper and aluminum making them sensitive to liquidity [1][11] - The current average dividend yield for the aluminum sector is over 5%, with potential for further increases, possibly replicating the past growth of the coal sector [1][7][27] Investment Opportunities - High-dividend private enterprises such as Hongqiao and Hongchuang, as well as undervalued state-owned enterprises like Yun Aluminum and Shenhuo, are worth attention [1][26] - The aluminum sector is expected to see a significant rebound in pricing and profitability, with a potential increase in valuation multiples from 6-7 times to 15-16 times [1][28] Future Trends - The aluminum industry is anticipated to transition from a manufacturing focus to a resource-based asset industry, with strong price and profit recovery expected [1][28] - The demand for aluminum is projected to remain strong due to ongoing industrial upgrades and the transition to new energy applications [1][16][15] Conclusion - The aluminum industry is positioned for growth, driven by structural changes in demand and supply dynamics, with high dividend yields and potential for significant capital appreciation making it an attractive investment opportunity [1][30]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry in China has achieved remarkable success but is now facing challenges such as price declines and reduced profitability, prompting the need for internal adjustments to overcome industry "involution" [2]. Summary by Sections Involution and Competition - "Involution" has become a significant issue across various industries, necessitating a re-evaluation of competitive philosophies and the establishment of new competition rules [3]. - The distinction between healthy and unhealthy competition is crucial, with the latter often leading to value destruction. The recognition of "involution" as a form of harmful competition has gained consensus [4]. Industry Self-Regulation - Industry self-regulation is essential, with associations playing a key role in promoting self-discipline among members. This includes industry planning, policy formulation, technological innovation, and combating unfair competition [6]. - The importance of leading enterprises in setting examples for self-regulation is emphasized, fostering a collaborative ecosystem among businesses [6]. Mergers and Acquisitions - Mergers and acquisitions are vital for enhancing industry concentration and overcoming involution. Historical examples from the U.S. steel industry illustrate the benefits of consolidation [8]. - The advantages of mergers include strengthening enterprises, improving company quality, facilitating innovation, and increasing industry concentration [9]. Capacity Management - The photovoltaic industry faces a significant supply-demand imbalance, necessitating both production cuts and capacity reductions to stabilize prices and maintain profitability [10]. - Historical practices in the cement industry demonstrate that production limits can effectively balance supply and demand without adversely affecting overall sales [11]. Pricing Strategy - A shift from a volume-based to a price-based profit model is necessary, emphasizing the importance of maintaining pricing power rather than solely focusing on sales volume [12][13]. - Effective pricing strategies can significantly impact profitability, and companies should avoid relying on sales personnel for pricing decisions [14]. Innovation and Value Creation - To transition from a competitive "red ocean" to an innovative "blue ocean," companies must focus on differentiation, market segmentation, high-end product development, and brand building [15][16][17][18]. - The emphasis on innovation is crucial for enhancing product quality and achieving competitive advantages in the market [19].

5月23日召开的国务院常务会议，审议通过《制造业绿色低碳发展行动方案（2025－2027年）》， 并就推进制造业绿色低碳发展作出部署。接受记者采访的专家表示，全面推动制造业绿色低碳发展是贯 彻新发展理念、推进新型工业化的根本要求，相关部署将加大对重大绿色低碳技术研发及应用支持力 度，加快重点行业绿色改造升级，持续提升产业绿色低碳竞争优势。 此外，会议还提出，要加强共性技术攻关，完善重点领域标准，优化相关政策，健全绿色制造和服 务体系，更好支持和帮助企业转型升级。 刘向东认为，当前企业在绿色转型升级中仍面临资金、标准、产业链协同等制约，产业链上下游企 业绿色转型步伐不一致。建议强化技术攻坚与标准引领，聚焦钢铁、电解铝、锂电池、新能源汽车等重 点产品，明确能效标杆值，加快研制一批碳足迹核算标准，加快绿色科技创新和先进绿色技术推广应 用。推进产业链协同转型，引导龙头企业披露供应商碳足迹数据，推动产业链上下游企业实施节能低碳 改造。创新绿色金融工具，扩大碳中和债券发行规模，破解企业转型的融资难题。（记者 郭倩） 【纠错】 【责任编辑:施歌】 会议对传统产业和新兴产业的绿色低碳发展均作出要求，提出"要推进传统产业深度绿 ...

近年来，我国构建起以环境保护税、资源税等专门税种"多税共治"，以增值税、消费税等专项政策"多 策共促"，涵盖生产、消费、排放等多个环节的绿色税制体系，有力支持绿色低碳发展。重庆税务部门 积极落实相关政策，引导企业算好"经济账""环保账"，今年1—6月落实推动绿色发展的税费优惠政策减 税降费超41亿元，助力重庆建设美丽中国先行区。 技术改造让减排与增效"同行" 2018年1月1日起，我国正式施行环境保护税法，通过"多排多缴、少排少缴、不排不缴"正向激励机制， 引导企业自觉践行绿色发展理念。近年来，重庆市税务局全面落实环境保护税政策，严格大气、水污染 物的监控管理，推动环境保护税充分发挥促进企业加强排污治理，减少污染物排放的积极作用。数据显 示，仅今年上半年，全市减免环境保护税1.5亿元。 走进重庆旗能电铝有限公司(以下简称"旗能电铝")生产车间，干净整洁的环境颠覆了人们对传统电解铝 企业高污染的印象。作为2008年投产的电解铝及铝深加工企业，该公司早期因生产规模扩大，曾面临排 放污染大、生态影响突出的难题。环境保护税开征，成为该公司加速绿色转型的"催化剂"。 "环保税多排多缴、少排少缴，让我们明白减排就是降本， ...