中孚实业 20250701 摘要 中福实业 2025 年预计归母净利润为 22.4 亿元，基于铝价 20,500 元/ 吨和氧化铝均价 3,000 元/吨的假设，当前市盈率仅为 8 倍，估值较低， 具备增长潜力。 2025 年中福实业电解铝板块盈利预计显著提升，受益于权益产能增加 约 12 万吨、四川水电成本降低以及氧化铝价格大幅下跌等多重因素。 预计中福实业 2026 年归母净利润约为 25.5 亿元，公司承诺 2025- 2027 年分红比例不低于 60%，按此计算股息率约为 8%，若分红比例 达 80%，股息率将超过 10%。 中福实业通过资产置换进入电解铝和铝型材行业，目前业务包括电解铝、 铝加工和煤炭三大板块，重整后资产负债率显著下降，从 100%以上降 至 33.4%。 2025 年 2 月中福实业推出员工持股计划，受让处置专户中的 2.65 亿股 票，每股价格 2.79 元，总金额约 4.24 亿元，参与员工人数占公司总数 70%以上。 请介绍一下中福实业的发展历史及其股权结构。 中福实业成立于 1993 年，并于 1999 年通过资产置换进入电解铝和铝型材行 业。2002 年，公司在上交所挂牌 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 7 月 1 日星期二 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，由于美元走弱，伦敦金小幅回升，并收复 3300 美元关口，最终 | | 研究员：王伟 | 收涨 0.88%，收报 3302.15 美元/盎司；伦敦银最终收涨 0.36%，报 36.09 美元/盎司。受 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 外盘影响，沪金主力合约收涨 0.54%，报 768.98 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.10%，报 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 8722 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数日内震荡下行，跌破 97 关口，最终收跌 0.54%，报 96.875。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率高开低走，收报 4.23%。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 ...

证券分析师 汤莹 A0230518100004 tangying@swsresearch.com 今日重点推荐 | 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3444 | 0.59 | 2.9 | 1.86 | | 深证综指 | 2075 | 1.09 | 5.22 | 4.39 | | 风格指数 | 昨日表现 | 1 个月表现 | 6 个月表现 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （％） | （％） | （％） | | 大盘指数 | 0.32 | 2.27 | 0 | | 中盘指数 | 0.86 | 4.88 | 0.32 | | 小盘指数 | 1.16 | 4.89 | 6.33 | | 行业涨幅 | 昨日涨 | 1 个月涨 | 6 个月涨 | | 地面兵装Ⅱ | 9.16 | 42.17 | 64.88 | | 游戏Ⅱ | 5.56 | 15.79 | 30.6 | | 航天装备Ⅱ | 4.87 | 11.02 | 11.73 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][7][17] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately RMB 135.1 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35% compared to RMB 100.1 billion in the first half of 2024 [7] - The growth in profit is attributed to higher sales prices and increased sales volume of aluminum alloy and alumina products, along with a decrease in coal prices leading to lower electricity costs [7] - The company has a high dividend yield of approximately 11%, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 60% for the year 2024, indicating strong long-term investment value [7] - The supply-demand dynamics in the aluminum market are favorable, with domestic production capacity nearing its limit and demand from sectors like new energy vehicles expected to grow [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 133,624 million - 2024: RMB 156,169 million - 2025E: RMB 152,307 million - 2026E: RMB 158,018 million - 2027E: RMB 158,736 million [6][8] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 11,461 million - 2024: RMB 22,372 million - 2025E: RMB 22,419 million - 2026E: RMB 24,585 million - 2027E: RMB 25,293 million [6][8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 2.41 for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.8 [6][8]

长江大宗 2025年7月金股推荐 长江证券研究所周期组 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 2025-06-29 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com SAC执业证书编号：S0490520080009 SAC执业证书编号：S0490517080003 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520080022 SAC执业证书编号：S0490516080003 SFC执业证书编号：BUT964 SFC执业证书编号：BQT627 SFC执业证书编号：BUT917 SFC执业证书编号：BUT918 分析师 魏凯 分析师 张韦华 分析师 张弛 分析师 肖勇 分析师及联系人 分析师 王鹤涛 分析师 范超 分析师 韩轶超 分析师 马太 SAC执业证书编号：S0490512070002 SAC执业证书编号：S0490513080001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490512020001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490516100002 SFC执业证书编号：BQT626 SFC执业证书编号：BQK473 SFC执业证书编号：BQK468 SFC执业证书编号：BUT911 %% %% %% %% researc ...

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 6 月 23 日星期一 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2507 合约收于 78290 元/吨，涨幅 0.14%，沪铜指数减仓 5943 手至 52.52 万手。 2.现货：持货商积极出货换现，现货升水承压走低。上海报升水 90 元/吨，较上一交易日下 跌 30 元/吨。广东库存 5 连降，但市场看淡后市，持货商主动降价出货，报升水 60 元/ 吨，下跌 30 元/吨。华北临近年中月末，下游采购欲望不强，报贴水 150 元/吨，下跌 40 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1. 海关总署在线查询数据显示，中国 5 月废铜进口量 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a 15% year-on-year increase in total sales during the 2025 618 shopping festival, with a notable shift towards instant retail and competition among platforms [9][2] - Major platforms extended the promotional period, leading to a significant increase in user engagement and sales across various categories, particularly in home appliances and beauty products [9][2] - Investment recommendations include focusing on Alibaba, Meituan, JD.com, and Pinduoduo due to their strong performance during the promotional period [9][2] Group 2 - The transportation industry is experiencing new opportunities due to changes in global trade dynamics, including fragmentation and reduced predictability of demand [12][10] - The report suggests that logistics companies should adapt to new consumption patterns and leverage AI technologies to enhance efficiency [12][10] - Recommendations for the shipping sector include focusing on companies like Yangtze River Shipping and China Power, which are well-positioned to benefit from long-term trends [12][10] Group 3 - Dingjide (603255) is focusing on high polymer additives and plans to develop a POE project that could significantly enhance its growth trajectory [11][11] - The domestic demand for POE is currently reliant on imports, presenting an opportunity for local companies to capture market share as they develop their production capabilities [15][11] - The report projects Dingjide's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 0.92, 1.77, and 3.6 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 42, 22, and 11, indicating a favorable investment outlook [15][11] Group 4 - Yangnong Chemical (600486) is positioned to enter a new growth cycle as the pesticide industry shows signs of recovery, with projected net profits of 14.07, 17.51, and 20.41 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [20][14] - The company is leveraging its strong market position and technological capabilities to enhance its product offerings and expand its market share [20][14] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Yangnong Chemical, citing its competitive advantages and the expected recovery in the pesticide market [20][14]

证券代码：000933 证券简称：神火股份 河南神火煤电股份有限公司 编号：2025-004 投资者 关系活 动类别 √特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观 □电话会议 □其他： （请文字说明其他活动内容） 参与单 位名称 及人员 姓名 天风证券：刘奕町、吴亚宁 汐泰投资：王宏为 恒越基金：曹特 浦银安盛基金：高翔 时间 2025 年 6 月 17 日 9:00-11:00 地点 河南神火煤电股份有限公司本部九楼第三会议室 公司接 待人员 姓名 董事会秘书：李元勋 证券事务代表：肖雷 投资者 关系活 动主要 内容介 绍 1.公司煤炭板块的情况，以及对煤炭盈利的展望？ 答：煤价短期已经触底，继续下降空间有限，但何时能够反弹还不确定。2025 年，中国煤炭行业将处于低碳转型与能源安全保障并行的关键阶段，煤炭市 场或将延续供需宽松格局，随着国家推动能源结构优化、保障能源安全稳定 供应政策的不断出台，煤炭价格中枢有望逐步企稳回升。 2.是否有布局氧化铝产业的考虑，如何应对相关成本波动的风险？ 答：在当前市场情况下，电解铝供给侧结构性改革对电解铝行业产能有了"天 花 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，得益于美元的疲软，伦敦金自盘中早些时候触及的低点反弹， | | 研究员：王伟 | 收复日内全部跌幅，最终收涨 0.43%，收报 3325.215 美元/盎司；伦敦银连续第四个交 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 易日上涨，最终收涨 2.16%，报 36.743 美元/盎司，继续刷新自 2012 年以来的价格高 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 点。受外盘影响，沪金主力合约收涨 0.18%，报 776.66 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 | | | 2.07%，报 9015 元/千克，为沪银合约上市以来的新高。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 2.美元指数：美元指数震荡走低，最终收跌 0.25%，报 98.94。 | | 期货从业证号 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the characteristics of industrial transfer in China, highlighting the shift from labor-intensive to capital and technology-intensive industries, particularly in the central and western regions [1] - The article notes that the transfer of industries is effectively driving industrial upgrades and value chain elevation, with significant movements in sectors such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, food processing, and new energy [1] - The importance and urgency of promoting industrial transfer are underscored, as it relates to enhancing the resilience and security of supply chains, building a modern industrial system, and constructing a new development pattern [1] Group 2 - Inner Mongolia is identified as a region with significant resource advantages, including abundant wind and solar energy, rich coal resources, and leading rare earth reserves, which can facilitate a new landscape for industrial transfer [2] - The region's agricultural strength is highlighted, with Inner Mongolia being one of the main grain-producing areas in China, and key industrial chains in dairy, meat, and other sectors exceeding a total output value of 700 billion yuan [2] - The development of the bio-manufacturing industry in Inner Mongolia is noted, focusing on a modern industrial structure that includes biopharmaceuticals and traditional Mongolian medicine [2] Group 3 - The article suggests that Inner Mongolia should actively integrate into national strategies, leveraging its development logic and industrial foundation to clarify key directions for industrial transfer [3] - It emphasizes the need to strengthen border advantages, promote trade-logistics-industry coordination, and enhance port construction and cross-border cooperation [3] - The article calls for improvements in infrastructure, including parks and new infrastructure, to enhance capacity for industrial transfer and create a favorable business environment [3]