Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the agriculture sector [4] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the SW Agriculture sector achieved a total profit of 13.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1049%, with significant contributions from the breeding, feed, and agricultural product processing sectors, accounting for 59%, 16%, and 15% of profits respectively [10][11] - The breeding sector saw a profit of 8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 254%, driven primarily by pig farming, which generated 7.615 billion yuan, up 242% year-on-year [10][11] - The feed and animal health sectors reported profits of 2.143 billion yuan and 512 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 676% and 34% [10][11] - The planting sector experienced a profit of 800 million yuan, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, influenced by declining grain prices [10][11] Summary by Sections Breeding Sector - The average price of lean pigs was 14.69 yuan/kg, down 1.1% from the previous week, while the average wholesale price of pork was 20.59 yuan/kg, down 1.4% [12][13] - The profit from self-breeding pigs decreased to 85.05 yuan per head, while the profit from purchased piglets was 48.53 yuan per head [14][15] - The average price of broiler chickens was 7.48 yuan/kg, up 0.1% from the previous week, and the average price of chicken products remained stable at 8.9 yuan/kg [25][27] Feed and Animal Health - The feed sector's profit growth was supported by the performance of the breeding sector, with significant increases in profits from poultry and aquatic feeds [10][11] - The pet food segment also showed strong performance, achieving a profit of 330 million yuan, up 28% year-on-year [10] Planting Sector - The planting sector's profit decline was attributed to lower prices for corn and wheat, which fell by 11% and 14% year-on-year, respectively [10][11] - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance the growth potential of industry companies [11] Market Trends - The agriculture sector underperformed the broader market by 0.1 percentage points, with a decline of 0.6% [8][9] - The feed sector saw a slight increase of 1.65% during the same period [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights strong performance in Q1 and maintains a long-term positive outlook for the pet sector [3] - The pig price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a long-term bearish outlook for 2025 due to increased supply [5][14] - The poultry sector may see price improvements due to tariff impacts and supply chain adjustments [6][28] - The animal health sector is poised for valuation recovery driven by improved downstream demand and expansion opportunities [7][39] - The planting sector is experiencing a significant decrease in grain imports, which may affect pricing dynamics [8][44] - The feed sector remains at a low level, with expectations of increased industry concentration [9][47] - The pet market continues to grow rapidly, with strong domestic brand performance [10][52] Summary by Sections Pig Industry - Pig prices are expected to adjust slightly downwards, with a long-term bearish trend anticipated for 2025 due to increased production capacity [5][14] - As of April 24, the average pig price was 14.96 CNY/kg, with a slight weekly increase [14] Poultry Industry - The poultry sector may benefit from tariff impacts, with a potential price increase due to supply chain disruptions [6][28] - The industry is expected to stabilize at low production levels, leading to stable profitability [6][29] Animal Health - The animal health sector is seeing improved performance, with significant revenue growth reported by leading companies [7][39] - The prices of key raw materials are rising, which may enhance the performance of related companies [7][39] Planting Sector - A notable decline in grain imports was recorded in March, with a 73.5% year-on-year decrease [8][44] - The prices of major grains have shown some recovery, with corn priced at 2220 CNY/ton as of April 25 [8][44] Feed Industry - Feed prices are currently low, with a slight decrease in the price of pig feed [9][47] - The industry is expected to see increased concentration, with recommendations for leading companies [9][49] Pet Industry - The pet market in China reached a scale of 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [10][52] - Domestic brands are rapidly gaining market share, with significant growth reported for leading pet food brands [10][56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig farming sector currently has a large safety margin due to sufficient trading expectations, with potential pressure on pig output in the first half of 2025 [3][4] - The report highlights that the supply of breeding sows continues to decline, with the number of breeding sows at 40.39 million heads, down 1.0% quarter-on-quarter [2][13] - The report notes that the average price of live pigs has decreased to 15.2 yuan/kg in March, reflecting a 3.6% decline month-on-month, while the average price of piglets has increased by 2.8% month-on-month [18][34] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming Sector - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased to 128.94 kg, up 0.37 kg week-on-week, indicating a potential supply-demand balance [35] - The total number of pigs slaughtered in Q1 2025 was 19.476 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 0.11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.86% [14] - The average profit per pig has decreased to 84 yuan per head for large-scale farms and 54 yuan per head for smallholders, down from 131 yuan and 75 yuan respectively in February [18] 2. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on pig farming companies with high output and cost recovery, specifically recommending Muyuan Foods and Shennong Group, while suggesting to pay attention to Wens Foodstuff Group and Juxing Agriculture [3] - For the post-cycle sector, the recovery in pig inventory is expected to boost demand for feed and veterinary products, with a recommendation to focus on Haida Group [3] - In the planting chain, the report suggests that the strong grain prices due to Sino-US tariff disputes present investment opportunities, recommending companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3] 3. Market Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 0.16% compared to a 0.56% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [26] - The report details that the animal health, feed, and agricultural product processing sectors saw varying performance, with animal health up 5.42% and poultry farming down 1.22% [26][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig farming sector has a significant safety margin under the current trading expectations, with potential pressure on pig output in the first half of 2025 due to high levels of new piglets [3][4]. - The report highlights that the supply of pigs is expected to rebound, which will boost demand for feed and animal health products, leading to a valuation recovery in related sectors [3]. - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the planting chain due to rising grain prices amid US-China tariff tensions, recommending several companies in this space [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming Sector - The average price of pigs has decreased to 14.95 yuan/kg as of April 25, 2025, with a week-on-week change of -0.13% [35]. - The total number of pigs slaughtered in Q1 2025 was 19,476 million heads, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.86% [14]. - The average profit per pig has continued to decline, with large-scale farms reporting a profit of 84 yuan per head in March, down from 131 yuan in February [18]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The number of breeding sows as of the end of March 2025 was 40.39 million heads, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.0% [13]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased to 128.94 kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.37 kg [35]. - The average price of piglets in March 2025 was 37.24 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 16% [18]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on pig farming companies with high output and cost recovery, specifically mentioning Muyuan Foods and Shennong Group, while also suggesting attention to Wens Foodstuff Group and Juxing Agriculture [3]. - For the post-cycle sector, the report suggests that the rebound in pig inventory will enhance demand for feed and animal health products, recommending Hai Da Group [3]. - In the planting chain, the report highlights investment opportunities in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development, Beidahuang, and Hainan Rubber due to strong grain prices [3].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of leveraging local advantages to cultivate and strengthen the county economy, promoting integrated development for prosperity [4] - The Shanxi Baihe Yuan Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. is highlighted as a small grain deep processing enterprise that utilizes a "company + base + farmers" cooperation model to increase income for surrounding farmers [4] - The article discusses the need for enterprises to focus on market demand, utilize advanced agricultural technology, and enhance product value and market competitiveness [4] Group 2 - The article notes the busy spring plowing season, with a focus on efficient water-saving irrigation projects and modern agricultural technology applications [5] - It stresses the importance of food security and the implementation of strong agricultural support policies to enhance comprehensive grain production capacity [5] - The Zhonghuake Siding Technology Development Co., Ltd. is mentioned for its application of organic phase change energy storage materials in various industries, emphasizing the need for innovation and market expansion [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights the weak fluctuation of pig prices, with expectations of a downward trend in the short term and a long-term weak operation in 2025 due to increased supply and weak demand [4][14] - The poultry sector may see price improvements due to the impact of tariffs and a shortage of quality breeding stock caused by avian influenza [5][28] - The animal health sector is expected to benefit from improved downstream demand and external expansion opportunities, with rising prices for key products like Tylosin [6][41] - The planting sector is experiencing price fluctuations for major grains, with a focus on the commercialization of genetically modified seeds [8][46] - The feed sector is seeing a decline in prices, with recommendations for companies like Haida Group [8][49] - The pet market continues to grow rapidly, with strong performance from domestic brands and recommendations for companies in the pet food and medical sectors [8][54][57] Summary by Sections Pig Industry - Pig prices are expected to adjust slightly, with a forecast of weak performance in 2025 due to increased supply [4][14] - As of April 10, 2025, the average price of live pigs is 14.6 CNY/kg, with no change from the previous week [14] Poultry Industry - The poultry sector may see price increases due to tariff impacts and a lack of quality breeding stock [5][28] - The average price of broiler chickens is 3.75 CNY/lb, reflecting a weekly increase [28] Animal Health - The animal health sector is experiencing improved profitability, with Tylosin prices rising significantly [6][41] - The report suggests focusing on companies with expected external expansion, such as Reap Bio [6] Planting Sector - Major grain prices are fluctuating, with corn priced at 2199 CNY/ton and wheat at 2422 CNY/ton [8][46] - The report recommends companies involved in genetically modified seed development [8] Feed Sector - Feed prices are declining, with pig feed at 3.35 CNY/kg [8][49] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Haida Group due to expected industry consolidation [8] Pet Industry - The pet market is projected to reach 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.5% [8][54] - Recommendations include companies like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which are experiencing significant growth [8][57]

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月16日 美国农业部（USDA）月度供需报告数据分析专题 优于大市 全球大豆压榨量环比调增，中国玉米进口预估进一步下修 种植链农产品：中国玉米进口量预估下修，全球大豆压榨量调增。 1）玉米：国内供需宽松顶部已现，玉米价格有望维持温和上涨。USDA3 月供 需报告将玉米 24/25 产季期末库销比环比调减 0.13%至 23.32%，其中，中国 玉米 24/25 年度进口目标较 2 月预估进一步下调 200 万吨至 800 万吨玉米， 最终中国玉米期末库销比环比减 0.64%至 64.27%。目前国内玉米价格已处于 历史周期底部位置，中储粮自 2024 年 12 月起多次扩大收储，提振国内玉米 市场，后续预计价格底部支撑较强。 2）大豆：南美丰产压力下预计上半年价格维持底部震荡，新季美国大豆减 产或在今年秋季兑现。USDA3 月供需报告中预计 24/25 产季全球产量维持、 压榨量调增、期末库存略减，最终全球大豆期末库销比环比调减 0.94pcts 至 29.67%；总体 2025 上半年全球大豆供应压力仍大，考虑到贸易政策扰动 影响，预计价格维持底部震荡。当前豆系产品价格处于历 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to perform better than the market, with specific focus on corn, soybeans, wheat, sugar, cotton, and livestock [5] Corn - The USDA March report indicates a slight increase in global corn production and usage, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio adjusted down by 0.13% to 23.32% [16][17] - China's corn import target for the 2024/25 season has been revised down by 2 million tons to 8 million tons, leading to a reduction in the ending stocks-to-use ratio to 64.27% [17][18] - Domestic corn prices are expected to maintain a recovery trend supported by state reserves and a historical price bottom [19][20] Soybeans - The USDA report maintains global soybean production estimates while increasing the crushing volume by 0.84% to 295 million tons, with ending stocks reduced to 121.41 million tons [25][26] - The soybean market is expected to experience price fluctuations in the first half of 2025, with long-term trends indicating a tightening supply [28][29] - The U.S. soybean planting area is projected to decrease by 3.6%, which may lead to a tighter supply in the upcoming season [31] Wheat - The USDA report shows an increase in global wheat production and consumption, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio rising to 32.24% [35][36] - China's wheat import target for the 2024/25 season has been reduced by 1.5 million tons to 6.5 million tons, indicating a relatively loose supply situation [36][37] Sugar - The report indicates a continuation of a loose supply-demand balance for sugar, with domestic production expected to increase by 1.04 million tons [4] - Short-term sugar prices are anticipated to remain weak due to high inventory levels and seasonal consumption patterns [4] Cotton - Global cotton demand is projected to increase, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio adjusted down to 67.21% [4] - Domestic cotton prices are at historical lows, and a recovery in demand could lead to a rebound [4] Livestock - U.S. pork prices are expected to see a slight increase, while domestic pig prices may decline, but low-cost producers are likely to maintain profitability [7] - The poultry market is affected by avian influenza, with expectations for a gradual recovery in supply [7] - Egg supply in China is currently abundant, with pressure on prices expected to persist throughout the year [7]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Insights - The pig sector shows slight inertia growth in breeding stock, highlighting the undervaluation and expectation gap in the sector [3][16] - The poultry sector emphasizes the fundamentals of white chickens and the marginal changes in breeding imports [17][18] - The feed sector recommends Hai Da Group due to its fundamental turning point and relatively low valuation [21] - The pet sector sees a rise in domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports [25][26] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of March 8, the national average pig price is 14.68 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week, with a profit of approximately 154 CNY per head for self-breeding farms [1][15] - The supply side shows an average market weight of 127.06 kg for pigs, with a 4.23% share of pigs over 150 kg, indicating a potential seasonal decline in prices due to weak demand [2][15] - The sector is characterized by low valuations, with major companies like Muyuan and Wens below 2000 CNY per head, suggesting a historical low valuation [3][16] Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector faces uncertainty in breeding imports due to outbreaks of avian influenza, leading to a significant drop in domestic breeding stock [4][17] - Chicken prices have rebounded, with the average price for live chickens in Shandong at 3.30 CNY per bird, supported by positive restocking sentiment [4][18] - Investment recommendations include Shengnong Development and attention to Yisheng and Minhe [5][18] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is recommended due to its market share increase and expected improvement in the aquaculture feed market after a prolonged downturn [21] - Prices for various aquatic products have shown significant increases, indicating a potential recovery in the aquaculture sector [21] Pet Sector - Domestic brands like Guibao Pet are expanding their market share through independent brand operations, targeting different price segments [25][26] - Pet food exports have seen a substantial increase, with a year-on-year growth of 26% in volume and 22% in value, reflecting a robust market [25][26] Agricultural Technology - The application of genetically modified technology is expected to accelerate, enhancing agricultural productivity and competitiveness among leading seed companies [23][24] - The low-altitude economy is projected to grow significantly, with policies supporting the development of smart agriculture and drone applications [23][24]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Views - The pig sector shows a divergence between pig prices and piglet prices, with pig prices rebounding while piglet prices continue to decline. The average price of pigs is 14.87 CNY/kg, up 1.09% from last week, with an average profit of approximately 225 CNY per head for self-breeding and self-raising operations [1][15] - The poultry sector is experiencing low valuations and elasticity, particularly in the white chicken segment, where supply pressures are exacerbated by restrictions on overseas breeding imports due to avian influenza outbreaks [3][17] - The feed sector is recommended for investment due to a fundamental turning point and relatively low valuations, with Hai Da Group highlighted as a key player [5][21] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - Pig prices have rebounded, with an average price of 14.87 CNY/kg as of February 22, 2025, while piglet prices are declining, indicating a potential short-term weakness in piglet pricing [1][15] - Supply remains low with an average slaughter weight of 125.68 kg, and the proportion of pigs over 150 kg is 4.11% [1][15] - The sector is considered undervalued, with major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs having head valuations below 2000 CNY per head, suggesting potential for recovery [2][16] Poultry Sector - The white chicken segment faces supply pressure due to halted overseas breeding imports, leading to a significant drop in domestic breeding stock [3][17] - Chicken prices have stabilized, with the average price for live chickens at 2.80 CNY per bird, and expectations for price recovery as processing plants resume operations [3][17] - Investment recommendations include Shengnong Development and other companies in the poultry sector due to anticipated demand recovery [4][18] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to improving market conditions in aquaculture feed after a prolonged downturn [5][21] - The prices of various aquatic products have shown a mixed trend, with some prices increasing due to supply constraints [5][21] Seed and Agricultural Technology - The application of genetically modified technology is expected to accelerate, enhancing the competitiveness of leading seed companies [7][23] - The low-altitude economy is identified as a growth area, with significant potential for agricultural applications of drones [7][23] Pet Sector - Domestic pet brands are rapidly growing, with significant sales increases in pet food, indicating a robust market for local brands [9][25] - Pet food exports have also seen substantial growth, reflecting a healthy export market [9][25] - Recommended companies in the pet sector include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. due to their strong market positions [9][27]